Harvard Scientist: Rio Olympics Could Spark 'Full Blown Global Health Disaster' (independent.co.uk)

An anonymous reader writes: Doctors have warned that the upcoming 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro could spark a "full-blown public health disaster" with the spread of the Zika virus. The World Health Organization has declared a health emergency in response to the disease's spread through Latin America. Rio has the highest number of cases of any state in the country. Dr Amir Attaran said in the Harvard Public Health Review the Olympic Games could increase the spread of the virus, suggesting the Games should be hosted by a different city in Brazil. "While Brazil's Zika inevitably will spread globally, given enough time, viruses always do -- it helps nobody to speed that up," he said. "In particular, it cannot possibly help when an estimated 500,000 foreign tourists flock into Rio for the Games, potentially becoming infected, and returning to their homes where both local Aedes mosquitoes and sexual transmission can establish new outbreaks." It's highly unlikely the virus will cause officials to take drastic action since the Games start on August 5th. With economic and political issues in the country, the Zika virus is just one more thing undermining confidence in the country's ability to host the Olympics. It was reported earlier this year that Rio has given up on its promise to eliminate 80 percent of the sewage found in the city's notoriously filthy water.

Comments

Not very realistic

[93 Escort Wagon]

The games are two and a half months away. Preparations for hosting them take years. I can't see the point in this guy's comments, other than as an attempt to garner some cheap publicity.

Re:Not very realistic

[Frosty Piss]

The games are two and a half months away. Preparations for hosting them take years. I can't see the point in this guy's comments, other than as an attempt to garner some cheap publicity.

Regardless of *if* the games occur (they will), he's telling people to stay away . That is the point of his comments.

Re:Not very realistic

[NicknameUnavailable]

The games are two and a half months away. Preparations for hosting them take years. I can't see the point in this guy's comments, other than as an attempt to garner some cheap publicity.

Canceling them would be the sane thing to do if they can't be moved elsewhere or postponed to move elsewhere. Having a completely arbitrary worldwide event in a practical plague area that causes horrible birth defects in the infected is fucking stupid. No sport is worth the risk of allowing people from your nation to risk others in your nation like that.

Re:Not very realistic

[KGIII]

Actually, I understand a whole lot of fucking goes on at the Games. It's a veritable fuck-fest, or so I'm told. I know about a dozen folks who have participated or been an alternate and gone to the games. Almost all of them have mentioned the sex and I do recall it being also mentioned either in a news program or a documentary but I'll be damned if I can tell you which one.

It would appear that physically fit people, in their prime, like to fuck. Go figure?

At any rate, it's a good idea to use a condom. I want to say the documentary talked about them handing out condoms and (maybe) running out? But, my memory is toast. (Buttered with cinnamon and sugar.)

Re:Not very realistic

[LostMyBeaver]

I lost interest in much of what he said when I saw the school he goes to and that he says things like "host them in another city".

He's absolutely without a doubt correct about the possibility of the virus spread. He is kinda down to earth regarding "let's not be extremist". But in reality, unless the transcription is terrible, he seems to lack the ability to put his separate thoughts into something logical and coherent. Therefore, it's difficult for me to be overly interested in his perspective.

So... as you mention, the moral of the story is... shoot anyone you know who might be going to the olympics or may have been around someone who has before they get close enough.

Here's a thought....
  - The Olympics will be in the southern hemisphere during mosquito low season.
  - People who attend the games will be at a risk of being infected with Zika, though not as high of a risk as at other times since it will be a low season.
  - The population of the city will be a minimum for 500,000 people greater during this event than normal.
  - The life span of a mosquito at the expected temperatures should be approximately 14 days, 10 if it warms up... which simply increasing population by 500,000 may contribute to.
  - There will be a much higher amount of trash and dirt in the city as well as viable food sources for mosquitoes
  - By the end of the events, the mosquito population should have grown... maybe even a lot.
  - More people will be at risk of infection due to simple population growth
  - More people will be infected... even if the infection rate is as little as 1 in 500, that's still 1,000 infected individuals
  - The people will travel home during summer in the northern hemisphere
  - The mosquito population following summer should be near it's apex at the time.

It seems to me that there's more to consider on this topic.
  1) Identify whether early detection is possible and require tests followed by possible isolation before boarding airplanes.
  2) Offer quarantine at indoor spas in arriving countries for people who have been to the Olympics.
  3) As seems most logical and has been suggested... suggest to people to simply not go. I can't imagine why anyone would want to go to the Olympics anyway. It seems an overpriced way to drag your knuckles.
  4) How to exploit the American news networks to turn a profit on this... after all, in America's current "Fear Economy", the fear propaganda mills run almost 24/7 to ensure people keep their jobs. Zika is a great way to scare people... especially with the possible (even likely) link with birth related issues. There must be a way to turn a profit on this. Maybe a new fashion trend of veils and long gloves to reduce exposed body surface mosquitoes would find attractive?

Re:Not very realistic

[just another AC]

Competed at last few Olympics personally...

Yes a lot happens, but the village also provides free condoms. Most people use them, as such, the village becomes the highest consumption of condoms ever. Easy to google and verify this. Although some of this number is people hoarding these for future use.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

Long story short, all athletes going to Rio have been warned many times over and advised that men should use protection for at least a month, and should not try for children for at least 6 months post games. Similar for women (but I think they only need wait a month for some reason).

Filthy drinking water?

[110010001000]

Who cares about the water and dying children? They have a good soccer team. Get your priorities straight. More stadiums!

Lay the blame at the proper set of feet

[rmdingler]

World Cup Soccer in Qatar in the midst of the 45 degree celsius (112 f) summer, the Olympics in the midst of the Russian kleptocracy, and now this mess...

Human greed and self-interest at the expense of pragmatic decision-making. Wouldn't it be something if it were a new story.

Re:The virus isn't the problem there

[Applehu Akbar]

"And those are GMO mosquitoes from 2012 onward that are causing the microcephaly and miscarriages"

You have the story scrambled. The GMO mosquitos are going to be introduced to kill off the natural organic free-range progressive mosquitos which are spreading the virus.

Re:Shouldn't others have a say?

[kylemonger]

The Olympics is a large surge of incoming people, but consider that Rio receives 2.82 million international tourist visitors per year (source: Wikipedia). I'd imagine the tourism numbers have come down since the heartbreaking pictures of those microencephalic babies appeared, but even a 50% decrease leaves a mess of people who could carry the virus home with them.

Whatever is going to happen with Zika is going to happen with or without the Olympics. And with global warming proceeding apace, the mosquitos are going to be spreading out of the tropical regions in any event. Get ready.

Editing is fundamental

[porges]

Which leads to a simple question: But for the Games, would anyone recommend sending an extra half a million visitors into Brazil right now? Of course not: mass migration into the heart of an outbreak is a public health no-brainer. And given the choice between accelerating a dangerous new disease or not—for it is impossible that Games will slow Zika down—the answer should be a no-brainer for the Olympic organizers too. Putting sentimentality aside, clearly the Rio 2016 Games must not proceed.

Phrasing, dude.