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Astronauts Won't Be Flying To Space In Boeing's Starliner Until 2018 (theverge.com)

An anonymous reader writes: The Boeing Starliner, one of two new spacecraft meant to break the Russian stranglehold on sending people to orbit, has hit a snag. Originally scheduled to start flying next year, the Starliner won't carry a crewed mission to the International Space Station until 2018 at the earliest. Six years is long enough. Ever since the 2011 retirement of the space shuttle NASA has been pushing for privately built craft capable of ferrying astronauts to orbit, which would let the agency buy American-made ships and end its dependency on renting seats aboard Russian spacecraft. The Starliner and SpaceX's Dragon were chosen, and 2017 was to be the year. But while SpaceX has sent its ship to the ISS on multiple uncrewed cargo resupply missions, the Starliner won't make such trips until 2017 and won't carry people until 2018 at the earliest. SpaceX maintains that it will be able to send crews to orbit in 2017.GeekWire explains: "For Boeing to shift its crewed test flight from 2017 to 2018 isn't as much of a slip as it might sound: The company's earlier schedule had called for the visit to the space station to take place in mid-December."

64 of 89 comments (clear)

  1. "American-made ships" by klingens · · Score: 5, Informative

    It's not really american when the Atlas V, the rocket which this capsule ist built for, still uses russian RD-180 rocket motors. A rocket is a fuel tank and a rocket motor mostly. It's not the fuel tank that's hard to build....

    1. Re:"American-made ships" by JoshuaZ · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's a good point, where in contrast SpaceX's Falcon 9 really is American made with the Merlin engines being made in the US. Every other year or so they announce a plan to build the RD-180 in the US - ULA announced it again late last year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RD-180#US_production_of_the_RD-180 but there are a lot of technical difficulties with making a version of it in our factories. The Russians have done some very subtle and very careful engineering with it (which gives the engine its very good power to weight ratio and high ISP) and them duplicating would be tough. At the same time, there have been some issues with RD-180 quality control so it might be better just for that reason to produce it in the US, aside from all the national security concerns about relying on a Russian rocket engine for national security launches.

    2. Re:"American-made ships" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But if it's the same Boeing I used to work at, they'll have to subcontract out all the engineering. There's nothing left at that company other than a bunch of managers.

    3. Re:"American-made ships" by harperska · · Score: 3, Interesting

      We'll see what comes of the Vulcan, the promised replacement for the Atlas V, which will have american made BE-4 engines. Maybe the Vulcan will be in production once the Starliner is finally ready to fly.

    4. Re:"American-made ships" by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 2

      It's not really american when the Atlas V, the rocket which this capsule ist built for, still uses russian RD-180 rocket motors.

      The Boeing Starliner "is to be compatible with multiple launch vehicles, including the Atlas V, Delta IV, and Falcon 9, as well as the planned Vulcan.[9] "
      from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    5. Re:"American-made ships" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I work for ULA and I can assure you that a rocket is a lot more than an engine and fuel tank. You are forgetting a sophisticated suite of Avionics, reaction control systems, pneumatics, and pyros for staging, payload separation and flight termination, just to name a few items. If you think the engine is the only difficult part to get right then you should tell that to SpaceX. Most of their problems including their recent launch failure have been caused by components other than the engine. The Atlas V also uses an American made RL-10 engine for the second stage.I work for ULA and I can assure you that a rocket is a lot more than an engine and fuel tank. You are forgetting a sophisticated suite of Avionics, reaction control systems, pyros for staging, payload separation and flight termination,

  2. Race for the flag by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

    SpaceX has repeatedly had delays also and pretty much nothing they do is on time to the point where people jokingly refer to "ElonTime." The Falcon Heavy for example was supposed to originally fly in 2012 and it still hasn't flown yet. So it isn't clear that Dragon will be ready when they say it is either. There was a flag left at the ISS to be taken back by the next American manned spacecraft to go to the station. http://www.space.com/12335-shuttle-astronauts-flag-model-space-station-tribute.html The race in the 1960s was to plant a flag and that race was between two countries. Now the race is to retrieve a flag and it is between two corporations.

    1. Re:Race for the flag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Falcon Heavy was deliberately pushed back because upgrades to the Falcon 9 increased its payload to the lower end of Heavy's original design, resulting in a lower cost launch in those paylaod ranges. Basically there was no point to rushing the Heavy because there wouldn't have been an immediate market for it. Sure, there was some slippage just because reasons, but much of the delay was of the "oh wait, we don't need that right now after all" type.

    2. Re:Race for the flag by Rei · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I would expect that the speed at which they get to Falcon 9 reuse would have an impact on the Falcon Heavy schedule (that speed, in turn, being relative to the rate that they keep landing them - the more they have on hand, the more risky they can afford to be in their return-to-flight testing program for them). Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy cores are extremely similar and made on the same lines, and the engines are identical. So the more line capacity they free up, the more they can dedicate toward the Heavy.

      --
      Monkeywrench Ex Machina.
    3. Re:Race for the flag by TomGreenhaw · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm OK with aggressive deadlines that get pushed out. Aggressive time lines presses a team to be as productive as possible. On the other hand, the courage to delay when its not ready regardless of the financial consequences is in my mind to be admired.

      This is what differentiates a quality organization from those stock market driven pointy haired managed fiascoes all to common in business today.

      --
      Greed is the root of all evil.
    4. Re:Race for the flag by Kjella · · Score: 2

      I'm OK with aggressive deadlines that get pushed out. Aggressive time lines presses a team to be as productive as possible.

      Until it becomes a de facto expectation that you won't meet the deadlines and they'll be pushed out anyway because they were some PMs wet dream. Then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that if you want it in three weeks you set the deadline to three days, because nothing will really happen until you start raising a stink about how late it is while the project that actually schedules three weeks waits three months instead. And as a consequence of the schedules being unrealistic, there's no real retrospective done with the PMs on the missed estimates because everybody more or less knew they were imaginary anyway. Overly aggressive deadlines are a sympton of dysfunction, not productivity.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    5. Re:Race for the flag by Rei · · Score: 1

      Out of curiosity, what are your back-of-the-envelope calculations? Rocket costs don't generally lend themselves very readily to such things, so I'm curious ;)

      --
      Monkeywrench Ex Machina.
    6. Re:Race for the flag by TomGreenhaw · · Score: 1

      Agreed.

      My Friend Neil taught me an important principle about the ABCD of decisions:
      A - Achievable
      B - Believable
      C - Concrete
      D - Desirable

      A great leader never sets goals that are not ABCD. So far, Elon Musk has set ABCD goals. Having the courage to take the time to get it right makes it special. Maybe his team will start hitting the deadlines - but until then I hope his organization continues to get it right even if its not on time.

      --
      Greed is the root of all evil.
    7. Re:Race for the flag by Mindbridge · · Score: 1

      There are several data points available with which one can make at least approximate calculation:
      - The price of a Falcon 9 launch is $62mil (was expendable up to now)
      - Gwynne Shotwell said that if first stage can be restored for $2mil, then the reflight would cost $40mil
      - The cost of the first stage is known to be around 70% of that of the rocket
      - The cost of the rocket is only a part of the F9 launch cost. Let's say that this fraction is R.
      - Given that a reflight uses again everything else other than the first stage, from the above one can calculate:

      Reflight ($40mil) = Stage 1 restore ($2mil) + everything other than Stage 1 ( $62mil*(1-0.7*R) )

      Taking into account the uncertainties, this gives you that the cost of rocket R is between 55% and 60% of the full launch cost.
      Having these numbers one can make a ballpark estimate for the cost of FH and the FH reflight. Those are the numbers listed in my previous message.

  3. Man-rated Dragon hasn't flown by werepants · · Score: 3, Informative

    FTFS:

    SpaceX has sent its ship to the ISS on multiple uncrewed cargo resupply missions

    To be fair, the Dragon that SpaceX has flown is a very different vehicle than the Dragon V2, which is the capsule rated to carry astronauts. So while they do have a leg up on Boeing in some respects (and will likely beat them on schedule) neither capsule is really flight-proven at this point.

    1. Re:Man-rated Dragon hasn't flown by WindBourne · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, SpaceX has 2 more tests for it, and they are ready:
      1), the in-flight abort test.
      2) sending the dragon to space on its own.

      IOW, not much is left for the first manned spaceX flight.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    2. Re:Man-rated Dragon hasn't flown by werepants · · Score: 2

      IOW, not much is left for the first manned spaceX flight.

      My point isn't that I think Dragon V2 has issues - it's just incorrect to claim (as the summary did) that it has flight heritage, because it really is a different vehicle than the cargo-only Dragon. I agree that SpaceX is on track and only a short way from that first flight, though.

    3. Re:Man-rated Dragon hasn't flown by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      In other words - the grandparent is correct. No matter how hard the SpaceX fanboys try to spin it, Dragon V2 isn't currently man rated. Nor is it known when it will be certified for manned flight. (Currently the final certification flight isn't scheduled until 2017.)

    4. Re:Man-rated Dragon hasn't flown by Mysticalfruit · · Score: 1

      Warning: Conjecture and air chair engineering here at it's finest...

      SpaceX generally builds one thing and then keeps improving on it. I suspect when they built the flight computers and avionics the intention is for them to be common across both platforms. Likewise I would argue that from an engineering point of view they've tried to keep Dragon and Dragon V2 as common as possible.

      Hence, lots of lessons learned from Dragon can be applied directly to Dragon V2.

      --
      Yes Francis, the world has gone crazy.
    5. Re:Man-rated Dragon hasn't flown by werepants · · Score: 1

      In terms of overall architecture and lessons learned, absolutely there's a lot of commonality for SpaceX to leverage. That said, Dragon V2 has a totally different solar array and trunk, it's a different size, it uses new propulsive landing and brand new SuperDraco engines to support it, it docks instead of berthing via Canadarm2, it has to support manual control by the astronauts and provide full ECLSS... for all practical purposes it's a brand new vehicle.

    6. Re:Man-rated Dragon hasn't flown by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      no doubt about it. Dragon v2 requires a whole new vetting. However, all that is left is the abort flight and the unpopulated test flight. After that is the first human flight.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  4. I look forward to their first test flight in 2023 by NotDrWho · · Score: 2

    Assuming it doesn't get pushed back again.

    --
    SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
  5. Doing this stuff is hard by Mr.+Droopy+Drawers · · Score: 2

    Although we proved it in the 60's, this stuff is hard. You've now got private companies competing, not cooperating via NASA to deliver this stuff.

    The problem here is our federal government hot cancel contracts and retire heavy lifting vehicles. Frankly, the shuttles were not in immediate need of retirement. Endeavour, the newest, was built in '92 and could have been kept in rotation until there was a viable American-controlled alternative.

    In the Reagan administration, the USS Iowa and Missouri were pulled out of mothballs to patrol the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, the USS Missouri served longer in this second period than it did in its maiden one.

    --

    To Copy from One is Plagiarism; To Copy from Many is Research.

    1. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by werepants · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The problem is, to keep even a single shuttle flying, you have to maintain most of the infrastructure that was required to keep an entire fleet running. Low flight rate was one of the reasons that the shuttle never met cost projections in the first place, because you're paying for these huge facilities and workforces that are perpetually running at 25% capacity because of low launch rates. So keeping a single shuttle in play would have exacerbated this problem and ended up making our per-flight cost go through the roof, and so it probably came down to an "all-or-nothing" sort of calculation. And nobody wanted to risk killing another crew because of trying to stretch an orbiter beyond its useful life.

      Note: many of these same problems are set up to plague SLS, the follow-on program to the space shuttle, which is hugely expensive, over budget, and behind schedule. If you're a fan of low-cost American space access, you should root for more funding of Commercial Crew and the other COTS efforts, and cancellation of this giant congressional effort to repeat shuttle's mistakes.

    2. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

      The problem here is our federal government hot cancel contracts and retire heavy lifting vehicles. Frankly, the shuttles were not in immediate need of retirement. Endeavour, the newest, was built in '92 and could have been kept in rotation until there was a viable American-controlled alternative.

      The problem with the Space Shuttle program was the cost. It was stupidly expensive. The tiles had to be replaced after every mission, and every tile was unique with its own part number/serial number. The main engines needed to be nearly rebuilt after every mission, due in large part to hydrogen embrittlement of the steel. The cost per launch was somewhere in the neighborhood of one billion dollars per launch. SpaceX launches for $60 million for satellite launches and about $133 million for space station cargo launches (including the capsule).

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    3. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by chispito · · Score: 1

      Endeavour, the newest, was built in '92 and could have been kept in rotation until there was a viable American-controlled alternative.

      If you are going to have people riding controlled explosions into space (at great expense, no less), make sure there is an escape plan if things start exploding in the wrong places.

      --
      The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
    4. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by Rei · · Score: 1

      Wholeheartedly agree.

      NASA needs a huge haircut on personnel and facilities related to "launching giant rockets which they can't afford", and a corresponding expansion round in robotic exploration, advanced concepts (aka cost reduction) engineering/testing, and long-term off-planet habitation engineering.

      --
      Monkeywrench Ex Machina.
    5. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 1

      So keeping a single shuttle in play would have exacerbated this problem and ended up making our per-flight cost go through the roof, and so it probably came down to an "all-or-nothing" sort of calculation. And nobody wanted to risk killing another crew because of trying to stretch an orbiter beyond its useful life.

      The space shuttles were supposedly designed for 100 missions each. Discovery flew the most at 39. Atlantis launched 33 times and Endeavour just 25. They could have easily taken all three of them to 50 missions each and made Endeavour the workhorse of the three. It was as much political BS as anything that was behind the decision to not extend their mission.

    6. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by Necron69 · · Score: 1

      I wholeheartedly disagree. The Space Shuttle program was an enormous financial boondoggle that had an average cost per flight of close to $2 BILLION each. The money and mind share consumed by the shuttle program were the greatest roadblock to private space industry and I thank God it is gone.

      With the government no longer sucking all the air out of the room and competing with them, private industry is finally moving ahead. Now we need to cancel the next NASA financial boondoggle: SLS.

      - Necron69

    7. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by werepants · · Score: 1

      Absolutely. BTW, I'm a longtime unregistered lurker at the NSF forums, and I think I've seen you (or someone with your username) posting over there about Venusian habitats among other things - really interesting stuff!

    8. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by werepants · · Score: 1

      The thing is, to the extent that a lack of shuttle capability has opened up more funding and pressure to get a commercial option off the ground, it has been a good move. I agree that it would have been better if there was some overlap, and Commercial Crew came fully online before the shuttles were retired, but at the same time Commercial Crew has struggled to get full funding and support from congress even when it has been competing against the unbuilt, hugely expensive, and technically unoriginal SLS. The other piece is that NASA has been looking for a shuttle replacement for a long, long time - remember Venturestar? It would be tough to fully fund development of a new launch system while keeping the existing one running, though, so I think that entered into the decision to cancel shuttle as well - saving that money was meant to allow NASA to focus on the next-gen launch systems.

      I agree with you that political BS is a big part of the problem, though. Which is why I'm such a fan of commercial space efforts, because it almost entirely removes congresscritters from having any influence on the technical decisions. Removing undue political influence would've prevented the space shuttle from being crippled by compromise, might have allowed Venturestar to actually proceed, would prevent boondoggles like SLS from getting traction, and so far seems to be allowing SpaceX to make progress at a rate that nobody previously thought possible.

    9. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by werepants · · Score: 1

      Also: we had multiple shuttle failures before orbiters had reached EOL, and there's a good argument that the system was nowhere near the reliability that it was claimed to have when it was designed. So an original "design life" is fairly meaningless compared to your actual track record and a real assessment of the condition of the vehicles.

    10. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by werepants · · Score: 1

      Did you mean you agree? Because every other part of what you wrote seems to mirror my own statements.

    11. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 1

      Also: we had multiple shuttle failures before orbiters had reached EOL, and there's a good argument that the system was nowhere near the reliability that it was claimed to have when it was designed. So an original "design life" is fairly meaningless compared to your actual track record and a real assessment of the condition of the vehicles.

      The failures didn't really have much to do with the air frame though. The Columbia was caused by crap falling off of the booster tank during launch and damaging the heat shield. Challenger was due to an o-ring not sealing correctly in cold weather.

      Still, the entire shuttle program was an enormous boondoggle. I just wish they would have been smarter and had a replacement before retiring the fleet. It's just embarrassing that we can't put our own astronauts on the space station.

    12. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by Rei · · Score: 1

      Yes, that would be me ;) I haven't posted an update recently, but I've definitely been working on it further. It's a really addictive project, because with each aspect you start researching / doing calculations on, you find subtopics that need the same thing... and subtopics on subtopics, and so on down the line ;)

      I've found a group of other people who are doing the same and there's been some talk of establishing a Venus Society (equivalent to the Mars Society) later this year. Honestly, there's a lot of systems that Venus and Mars programs could do together, so long as there's recognition of Venus as a valid target to work towards. In fact, one of the most expensive systems of a Mars program (the interplanetary crew transfer stage) could operate quite well for both planets (less delta-V for Venus, significantly shorter transfer times), so long as they make a couple simple design decisions so that it's capable of both Venus and Mars/Earth aerocapture, not just Mars/Earth, and likewise can handle the solar load near Venus.

      --
      Monkeywrench Ex Machina.
    13. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by Rei · · Score: 1

      Do you think humans will never settle off-world? Or just "not now"? Because habitation engineering does not mean "now" it means laying the groundwork for the future.

      --
      Monkeywrench Ex Machina.
    14. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by lgw · · Score: 1

      I'd also like to see "remote robotic mining and production", which we might get use of long before "off-planet habitation" (though maybe it's part of the same bucket). I think we've reached the point where asteroid mining is mostly a robotics challenge, and a fuel station in orbit changes everything.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    15. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Low flight rate was one of the reasons the air force was forced into using the shuttle - to get the rates up. That made NASA change their original design to something usable for them (them being the air force who did not want it in the first place) which ultimately made it unusable for everyone.

    16. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by chispito · · Score: 1

      The failures didn't really have much to do with the air frame though.

      But the deaths had everything to do with selecting an inherently unsafe design to begin with. Every other launch system since Mercury has had an abort system and much simpler, safer method of re-entry.

      --
      The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
    17. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1
      But almost all groundwork today will be obsolete decades before anyone gets around to doing anything for real. What needs to be done now (and since the 60's really) is to reduce launch costs.

      When launch costs are $25k/kg, you get one probe ever 3 years. When launch costs are $25/kg, you get hundreds or thousands of probes per year. If you had a 100% reusable, no maintenance vehicle, energy costs are $3/kg. It's like the difference between mainframes and PC. At $25/kg I would mount my own probe expedition to Europa mission.

      A falcon 9 costs ~$60M/vehicle, the same price as a B737. Their complexity is roughly the same and BA builds 50 737s/month.

    18. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      They were also supposedly designed for a two week turn around. It may have been political and even if it wasn't, they were horrible machines from both safety engineering and financial aspects. The really should have cut their losses after the first flight and started over, but too many people would have looked bad. That's where the real political failure was.

    19. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      The whole space station thing is an embarrassment from a science perspective.

    20. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Aircraft are also required to have something like less than 1 death in 10^13 hours of operation. The shuttle was closer to 1 death per hour.

    21. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by occasional_dabbler · · Score: 1

      Exactly this. You would not believe the crippling requirements we are now forced to meet for new commercial aircraft projects. We lost ONE Concorde and scrapped the fleet when it wasn't even due to a fault of the aircraft itself. I was saddened when we lost one shuttle, I was appalled when we lost a second one; that should have been impossible.

      --
      "Our opponent is an alien starship packed with atomic bombs," I said. "we have a protractor"
    22. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by Rei · · Score: 1

      Figuring out a chemical process to do X does not go obsolete. Figuring out where a resource Y is located on another world and characterizing it does not go obsolete. Finding out what materials can withstand offworld environments does not go obsolete. On and on and on.

      You're confusing basic engineering with "locking down hardware systems to specific lists of specific manufactured components". There's vast amounts of the former that need to be done before we can even think about the latter.

      When launch costs are $25/kg

      I'm a big fan of work toward cost reduction, and advocated for it above. But these sort of costs are in fantasy dream-world for the foreseeable future.

      A falcon 9 costs ~$60M/vehicle, the same price as a B737. Their complexity is roughly the same and BA builds 50 737s/month.

      The cost of building the rocket is only about 60% of their total launch costs. Hence why the planned discount for reuse is only about 30%.

      --
      Monkeywrench Ex Machina.
    23. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      I would even add to what you typed above, actual engineering can be used in Earth orbit or in Earth-Moon Lagrange points. We should be working towards building better space stations, and orbiting habitats, and that will give us some of the engineering needed to do longer missions and eventually allow us to build colonies on other planets.

      Unfortunately, the engineering I have seen you talk about for Venus, some of it would be utterly useless in space, so would be less useful to your idea of a Venus mission. However, if we can learn how to keep people breathing long term without adding oxygen into the system, and work out how to grow food and feed a space station, these things might translate pretty well into an initial Venus mission that might test out the acid breakdown process I have seen you talk about previously, while still able to run a mission without the input if it doesn't work.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    24. Re:Doing this stuff is hard by Rei · · Score: 1

      Most of the cost of developing for Venus is directly applicable to elsewhere. The interplanetary transfer stage, for example - one of if not the most expensive component to develop - would be pretty much identical to that used for Mars. The basic starting resource extraction trees are quite different for both bodies (generally easier on Venus), but after that, they merge together - same process for the Sabatier reaction, for UHMWPE synthesis, for Haber, for Ostwald, etc. Everything related to "long-term human habitation far from Earth" applies to them both, from medicine to livestock, from birth control to toilet paper. There's a huge amount of things that you need for anywhere you might want to live long-term. Superlight collapsible ovens/microwaves and refrigerators. Ultracompact, efficient cryogenic refrigeration systems (ex. magnetocaloric). Lightweight/metal-free wiring possibilities, like CurTran's CNT "LiteWire". The list is thousands of entries long.

      Yes, Venus and Martian habitats are very different structures, and the starts of their resource production trees very different. And Mars presents many extra challenges that Venus does not, while Venus presents some that Mars does not. But both share a tremendous amount of heritage.

      As for ISRU proof-of-concept on Venus, that requires a probe. Such a mission could be funded today at little cost if there was will for it. Maybe even Discovery-class. The same mission could likewise do a ballute-entry test, even if relying on helium as a secondary inflation gas, and significantly advance the TRL on that.

      Of course, there's a great deal more data gathering and testing than just those things that needs to be done before a manned mission could be launched. You need much better gas/mist analysis, better turbulence modeling, an actual understanding of Venus lightning (more than "it exists, at some unknown layer of the planet, at some times for unknown reasons", which is basically our understanding right now), better materials tolerance data, better precipitation / condensation data, etc. There's a number of missions in the pipes for these sorts of things, although it depends on where the funding goes. On Earth you need to make a reduced-scale demonstrator and actually fly it for long periods (at least several months), using heliox rather than normal air - first unmanned, then manned. You also need to launch a demonstrator into a reentry trajectory to test the full-scale deployment. Thankfully, Earth's and Venus's outer atmospheres and gravity are so similar that it makes this sort of testing easy.

      Neither a Venus nor Mars mission are just around the corner. IRSU is also exceedingly important to Mars missions, and we're just barely getting started with that as well. But it's harder to do. I was just reading a paper the other day on the current prospects for local water production, of the five different techniques they're looking at (plus many more that they had to simply rule out), none have any maturity whatsoever, nor have appropriate reserves for them been found and quantified. Like Venus, it's a case of "we know how to do it, from a technical level". Like Venus, the hardware doesn't yet exist, but we know a general path we'd take to build it. But unlike Venus, consistently sourcing process-effective raw materials is far more challenging. Glaciers are usually under too much overburden for strip mining, and in-situ extraction is in an exceedingly early stage at this point. In-situ mining poses the risk of collapse pits forming underneath / near the miner, while strip mining leads to sublimation. The glaciers are believed to generally be full of some unknown mixture of rock and sand of unknown, inconsistent qualities. Much of the solid ice is brine. All of the ice is expected to contain dust, which on Mars is toxic, and contains compounds like perchlorates that are prone to messing up RO membranes even after distillation. The non-glacial techniques involve sulfate minerals (such as gypsum), phyllosilicates (clays), and

      --
      Monkeywrench Ex Machina.
  6. And When It's Done, It Won't Be That Great Anyway by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 1

    CST is not reusable, can't do a powered landing on solid ground, and although it's supposed to be launch-vehicle-agnostic, it is currently planned to use Atlas 5 and we don't have a US engine for that yet.

    Contrast the Dragon, which is in the heritage of a flying spacecraft, is designed for powered landing on solid ground so that it can bring experiments back even more quickly than a space-plane - and SpaceX has proven its ability in powered landings now, and is intended to be reusable.

    Obviously everyone who is still in the game will aim higher with their next complete redesign, but SpaceX does seem to have made a technical jump over everyone else.

  7. Re:Why send humans? by Aruta · · Score: 1

    ...what could we accomplish if we spent that on making better robots?

    And use them to replace politicians? AI FOR PRESIDENT!!! Seriously, I'm all for it....

    --
    This universe shipped by weight, not by volume. Some expansion of the contents may have occurred during shipment.
  8. Boeing is concentrating more on human-rated flight by kriston · · Score: 1

    Boeing is concentrating more on human-rated flight from the start. This kind of delay is not unexpected.

    --

    Kriston

  9. It all depends on the contract by schwit1 · · Score: 1
    Unlike SpaceX, the company had done very little actual development work on the capsule before winning its contract from NASA. They therefore have a lot more to do to become flight worthy.

    If the contract is fixed price, as with the original cargo contracts awarded SpaceX and Orbital ATK, Boeing will have no incentive to delay, as they won’t be paid anything until they achieve specific milestones and will get no additional monies to cover the added costs of the delay. If the contract is cost-plus, however, NASA’s traditional contract system used for SLS, Orion, and almost every other boondoggle since the 1960s, then Boeing will be paid regardless of the delay, and NASA will also be on the hook for paying the additional delay costs, thus giving Boeing an incentive to slow walk the construction.

  10. Stranglehold?? by rfengr · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Russia does not have a stranglehold; like they are preventing others from doing so. The US has dropped the ball, which is shameful.

    1. Re:Stranglehold?? by swell · · Score: 1

      "shameful" ? It's shameful that the US doesn't spend more?

      The US, like every country has a budget. We allow so much for NASA, so much for military, a bit for health care and a lot for corporate welfare... These choices are made by the people we elected to office and no doubt are the result of honest caring for the welfare of our citizens. If our government has chosen to fund warfare and not space tourism we can trust that their reasoning is sound.

      Now for today's quiz: Of all the weapons on all sides of all the Middle East conflicts - what percent were sold by American companies?

      --
      ...omphaloskepsis often...
    2. Re:Stranglehold?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The US, like every country has a budget. We allow so much for NASA, so much for military, a bit for health care and a lot for corporate welfare...

      Um. You may want to check your percentages and adjust your adjective choices accordingly.

      We spend diddly-squat on NASA, a fair bit on the military, an awful lot on health care, and some unknown amount on tax incentives for corporations.

    3. Re:Stranglehold?? by Grishnakh · · Score: 2

      No, he's correct. We don't spend much on health care. Medicare and VA don't add up to much of the federal budget. Medicaid is state-level. Everything else is private, so it's out of government hands (except for the laws like ACA which govern it; we're talking about funding here though).

      Out of the federal budget not funded directly by FICA taxes (which are specifically for SSI/Medicare), NASA is barely noticeable, the military is huge, and corporate welfare is also huge.

    4. Re:Stranglehold?? by cfalcon · · Score: 1

      I came here to post this, and you did long ago. "Stranglehold" is a ludicrous word to use- it implies fighting to maintain a grapple. That's a really slanted word to describe "didn't throw their launch program away like we did". It's not like Russians were behind the scenes cancelling the shuttle on us or something. We did this to us. Maybe save the anti-Russia ire for when they do something bad, not when they do something good?

    5. Re:Stranglehold?? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2
      The US spends as much on space as the rest of the world combined.

      https://www.rt.com/usa/199480-...

    6. Re:Stranglehold?? by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      and corporate welfare is also huge.

      Please point to the budget line item you are using to make that assessment.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  11. Re:tell me more about by MrTester · · Score: 1

    Well... yeah. I thought that was kinda clear from the name. INTERNATIONAL Space Station....

  12. Re:so? by werepants · · Score: 1

    The Dragon V2 is actually a very next-gen spacecraft, not least because it can do a propulsive landing. This means it can not only land gently and precisely in any random field that it needs to (and also safely abort and save the crew in the case of launch vehicle failure) but that it can potentially land on other planets, asteroids, whatever. That's a totally new capability that no other manned spacecraft has possessed before now.

  13. Re:so? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

    Obviously you have never seen a shuttle. It is mostly a 1960's design and looks like a WWII bomber. The computers and systems were ancient, even after the upgrade, only the engines are very impressive. But you're just a fast food worker who likes wings in space. No fooling you.

  14. Shoot a Dragon around the Moon by frank249 · · Score: 1

    The Falcon Heavy is scheduled to do a demo launch in November. I would not be surprised if they put a Dragon 2 capsule on it to do the unmanned flight test at the same time. If they do, it would be cool if they launched the Dragon around the moon. SpaceX has a history of doing experimental landings during real launches. Launching a Dragon atop of FH would be more efficient than just having a dummy payload and going around the Moon would certainly make the launch worthwhile.

    --

    Today's vices may be tomorrow's virtues.

  15. George W Bush's 2nd biggest mistake ending the shu by peter303 · · Score: 1

    Before there was a viable replacement. He hoped the replacement would be in 2014. Probably not realistically until the early 2020s. There have to be several full configuration unmanned tests before building trust. The shuttle were rated for a hundred missions each. They retired less than a third into their lifetimes.

  16. Re:bi-partisan screw-up by Coren22 · · Score: 1

    That is quite a lot of assertions, do you have citations to back any of that up?

    I am not saying what was typed is untrue, but I don't recall ever hearing about an effort to possibly bring back the shuttle under Obama, and the main reason I recall hearing for the shuttle shutdown was conversion of facilities and funding which could not be done with the shuttle running.

    --
    APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?