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Expect Substantial Slowdown In Smartphone Shipment: IDC (slashgear.com)

Posted by msmash on from the what-goes-up-usually-comes-down dept.

Brittany A. Roston, writing for Slashgear: In 2014, smartphone shipments grew a massive 27.8-percent, and the next year, 2015, smartphone shipments grew by 10.5-percent. The International Data Corporation (IDC) expects that we'll see a substantial slowdown in shipments this year, with 2016 (possibly) ending up at around only 3.1-percent. According to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, this year will probably see about 1.48 billion smartphone shipments, a number that is estimated to climb to 1.84 billion by 2020.According to IDC, Android will see a YoY (year-on-year) growth of 6.2%, whereas Apple's iOS will drop by 2% this year. Also this year, the average selling price of an Android handset will be $218, which IDC expects to fall below $200 in 2019.

39 comments

  1. Same as computers. by LWATCDR · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The price will go down. This should not be shocking to anyone. Like PCs the margins will become razor thin and everyone will have one. I wonder if you will see gaming phones as a niche market?
    The money will be in media, services, and apps which is where Apple and Google will make money in the future. AKA iTunes store and Google Play.

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    1. Re:Same as computers. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But according to people who work in economics, growth or die!?!!!!111

    2. Re:Same as computers. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The price will go down. This should not be shocking to anyone. Like PCs the margins will become razor thin and everyone will have one. I wonder if you will see gaming phones as a niche market?
      The money will be in media, services, and apps which is where Apple and Google will make money in the future. AKA iTunes store and Google Play.

      I fail to see how there will be money in apps when pretty much everyone demands the FREE price tag.

      As far as "services" go, it's practically offensive to charge a Millennial for that. Since they're coming into power, offensive will soon become illegal, and then everything will be FREE, to include destroying every shred of privacy they don't care about anyway. FREE is all that matters.

    3. Re:Same as computers. by Kierthos · · Score: 1

      I'm not a millennial, but certain types of apps that don't ship with the phone, honestly should be free.

      I mean, unless it's some serious extra functionality, who the hell is going to pay for a stopwatch/timer app? Or a calendar reminder? (Again, assuming they don't ship with the phone to begin with.)

      There is money to be made in micro-payment/freemium apps and games, and that seems to be, if not a growing market, at least a stable one.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
    4. Re:Same as computers. by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Companies aren't writing "free" apps for fun. They are making money somehow, usually by selling all your phone data to the highest bidder. Individuals might be writing them for fun, but they also might be stealing your data.

    5. Re:Same as computers. by Kierthos · · Score: 1

      Well, yeah. That's pretty much a given. I mean, a stopwatch app shouldn't need access to my location data and whatnot, but it does. I use stopwatch as an example, because that's about the only app besides a timecard app that I've installed on my phone. I have thus far, resisted putting any games on my phone.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
  2. Where would a gaming phone's buttons be placed? by tepples · · Score: 1

    I wonder if you will see gaming phones as a niche market?

    I wonder what can be extrapolated from the Xperia Play phone's underwhelming sales toward answering that. I know companies don't make QWERTY sliders anymore. Would a "gaming phone" have a directional pad and action buttons on its main face like a PlayStation Vita or JXD's tablets?

    1. Re:Where would a gaming phone's buttons be placed? by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      I think that it would be an add on that uses the USB port or bluetooth.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  3. Less growth by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A slowdown in shipments would mean negative growth and fewer phones being sold.
    The numbers describe smaller positive growth. So they are predicting that more phones will be sold.

    There's a brain disease that lays dormant until journalists start writing headlines, when it kicks in a compels them to lie.

    --
    I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    1. Re:Less growth by The-Ixian · · Score: 1, Funny

      Headlies!

      --
      My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
    2. Re:Less growth by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 1

      Headlies!

      The internet is yours today. Well played sir!

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    3. Re:Less growth by TheGratefulNet · · Score: 1

      "its Hedley"

      "what the hell are you worried about, this is 1874, you can sue HER!"

      (oblig)

      --

      --
      "It is now safe to switch off your computer."
    4. Re:Less growth by hey! · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the second derivative of phones bought with respect to time is an important factor. In fact to a company that is adapted to an accelerating market with a relative dearth of producers, a growing but decelerating market with more and more low-price producers entering feels exactly like a contracting market.

      Either way it's a matter of how many units you produce the market will take at any given price. Even though more units may be purchased globally, when you are forced to drop prices to maintain your sales volume that global growth doesn't make any difference to you.

      To the supplier and consumers, on the other hand, a growing but decelerating market is a happy situation. At least until you find you can't find a phone without crappy, badly thought-out features thrown in by the manufacturers in a desperate attempt not to be sucked into the commodity market black hole. If I were a betting man that's the future I'd wager on to happen in two or three years.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    5. Re:Less growth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Harumph

    6. Re: Less growth by JonBoy47 · · Score: 1

      the market, to include the developing world, is getting saturated.

    7. Re: Less growth by JonBoy47 · · Score: 1

      So, in other words the pointless feature-creep that plagued dumb-phones before the iPhone came along?

    8. Re: Less growth by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 1

      the market, to include the developing world, is getting saturated.

      The market will ultimately be determined by the rate at which people break screens plus the rate at which non replaceable batteries degrade.

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
  4. "slowdown" by whoever57 · · Score: 1

    "Slowdown". I do not think that word means what you think it means.

    --
    The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    1. Re:"slowdown" by mccrew · · Score: 1

      "Slowdown". I do not think that word means what you think it means.

      Depends whether they are referring to the first derivative (rate of phone shipments), which is still positive, or the second derivative (change in rate of phone shipments), which is sharply negative.

      --
      Hey, Windows users, there is no such thing as "forward" slash, there is only slash and backslash.
    2. Re:"slowdown" by whoever57 · · Score: 1

      The context is: "substantial slowdown in shipments". I don't see how that can possibly mean the second derivative.

      --
      The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    3. Re:"slowdown" by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 2

      The context is: "substantial slowdown in shipments". I don't see how that can possibly mean the second derivative.

      TFA says "IDC expects ‘substantial slowdown’ in phone shipment growth this year"
      TFS says "Expect Substantial Slowdown In Smartphone Shipment: IDC"

      TFS author didn't study calculus.

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    4. Re:"slowdown" by larryjoe · · Score: 1

      Technically, yes the original subject isn't correct when talking about a slowdown in smartphone shipment globally. However, the gist of the subject is correct:

      There is an expected substantial slowdown in growth in the past few years, from 27% to 10% to a projected 3%.

      The projected 3% is almost half of the 6% projection from just 3 months ago.

      Some national markets, like Japan and Canada are expected to contract by over 6%.

      iPhone shipments are expected to contract this year.

      The important point is that overall shipment contraction is coming and coming soon, maybe not this year, but soon. And this is for unit shipments. Revenue contraction will probably arrive even earlier as average selling prices for Android, which at 80% market share and growing, are dropping.

  5. Free as in speech by tepples · · Score: 2

    One possibility is to switch to free apps that are actually free software. One store specializing in such apps is F-Droid.

  6. 99% of us by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    are consumers, and don't care. Why should we prepare, be ready, and brace ourselves for a small decline in sales of smart-phone shipments around the world?

  7. Upgrades mean less by Causemos · · Score: 2

    As the market matures there is less difference between phone versions. The cost/hassle of upgrading every year or two is not worth the benefit.

    Apple moving to a three year major release cycle only confirms this trend. Redesigns cost big money so like cars they want to get more from their engineering spend.

    1. Re: Upgrades mean less by JonBoy47 · · Score: 1

      The massive shift to outright and installment sales also means consumers are seeing the "true cost" of their devices, and consequently not seeing the value proposition of these "incremental" updates.

  8. IDC? by NotAPK · · Score: 1

    "The International Data Corporation (IDC)"

    Who the fuck are these guys? And why do they think they can comment on mobile phone technology and/or economics?

    1. Re:IDC? by WallyL · · Score: 1

      Oh, I thought the IDC stood for I Don't Care. It makes sense that way: "Expect substantial slowdown in smartphone shipment [sic]: I don't care!"

    2. Re:IDC? by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 1

      IDC = Insulation Displacement Connection/Connector.

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
  9. It's because most smartphones SUCK. by Lumpy · · Score: 1, Troll

    There is one Android phone I am willing to buy. the NEXUS from google directly. All the others are screwed up by the carriers and the makers adding in crap that makes the phone a steaming pile of crap.

    So the industry deserves the sales slump. They made the phones crap by shoveling in crapware.

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    1. Re:It's because most smartphones SUCK. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, as a long-time iPhone user who's gotten sick and tired of Apple's repeated shit (iOS hasn't seen any compelling new features for years while long time bugs remain unfixed) looking at Android phones - the only Android phone I'm willing to get is a Nexus. Every other smart phone has the combined issues of carrier bloatware and lack of post-sale updates. But even then I still find myself waiting to see what the next Nexus is going to be before making the jump - the Nexus 6P seems to be a step backwards and I'd rather wait, hoping for a better Android flagship from Google.

      But I'm not surprised iPhone sales are plummeting while Android sales continue to rise. Apple hasn't released a compelling iPhone since the iPhone 4, and has shown that they are simply uninterested in fixing long standing issues with iOS.

    2. Re:It's because most smartphones SUCK. by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 1

      After being on nexuses since the G1, I switched to an iPhone recently just to see what life is like on the other side. It's not much different. But all carrier bloated Androids still suck.

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    3. Re:It's because most smartphones SUCK. by AF_Cheddar_Head · · Score: 1

      Motorola, while owned by Google, released a few decent phones that were basically stock Andriod (MotoX, MotoG, MotoE). Also released updates for my MotoG in a timely manner. So far Lenovo hasn't screwed up the phones, no telling whether or not they will continue to release Android updates.

    4. Re:It's because most smartphones SUCK. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nexus devices get monthly security patches. Which sucks the first time you reboot the phone and it hangs for 15 minutes relinking apps, but at least it gets patched. My Moto X on the other hand has gotten maybe one security update since I purchased it 9 months ago.

  10. Summary title says it all by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    IDC

    I don't care.

  11. Come on IDC, make up your mind! by scdeimos · · Score: 1

    In April you were saying: Smartphone Shipments Flat For the First Time, Says IDC