SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Predicts People On Mars In 9 Years (cnn.com)

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says his company should be able to land humans on Mars in nine years from now. "If things go according to plan, we should be able to -- we should be able to -- launch people in 2024, with arrival in 2025," Musk said. "That's the game plan," he added. CNN Money reports: Musk said he's planning to share an architectural plan for the colonization of Mars at a conference in September. The tech conference audience was enthralled by Musk's comments. He told interviewers Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg that plotting travel throughout the Solar System, and "ultimately other star systems," provides the kind of inspiration that makes life worth living.

Comments

I predict....

[CastrTroy]

If this is true, I predict we'll have dead bodies on Mars in 9 years and 6 months. I don't for a second doubt we could get people there in a decade, but getting them back is a whole different story. As is keeping them supplied with needed items if they plan to stay there. the ISS currently gets a resupply mission about once every 3 months. The longest it's ever gone has been 128 days without a resupply. To do the return flight, you basically have to wait three months for the planets to line up properly. So the people will have to be up there (in orbit or on the surface) for a significant period of time.

Also, there's no bail out plan. Once you are half way there, if something goes wrong, too bad. You basically have to carry out the mission. With a moon mission you can always skip the landing and return right away like they did with Apollo 13. But with Mars, you have to wait for the planets to be in the right spot so you that you can actually take a short path home. If the planets are in the wrong position, the trip could take a whole lot longer.

Re:I predict....

[wbr1]

And how many dead bodies did we litter the bottom of the ocean with exploring it? Exploration is risky stuff. You mitigate what you can, but you are doomed to failure if you never start.

Re:I predict....

[werepants]

The ISS hasn't gone an extended period without resupply because it wasn't designed to and there's no reason to. So that's an invalid datapoint with respect to what mission duration modern technology can achieve.

Admittedly, the astronauts will be more cut off from support or bailout options than on previous missions, but that can be remedied with a conservative mission profile. For instance, have a fully-fueled and checked out return vehicle (or better yet, multiple) and contingency supplies ready to go at Mars before the astronauts even leave Earth. This mission is far less dangerous than sailing voyages that were commonplace in the 1800's. We will never have a 100% guarantee of success, but if humans should never do anything risky, we should never do anything at all that involves leaving the house.

A reasonable estimate will show that the risk of death associated with a trip to Mars is about the same as or less than the risk from being a smoker. If we have no problem allowing people to make that choice with their lives, why can't we tolerate that same risk for a far more worthwhile cause?

Re:And this is news how?

[U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M]

And who cares what religious idiots say in 2016?

One way ticket?

[Artem S. Tashkinov]

That's what I foresee with the current technology.

Jokes aside, do we have to send human beings to Mars? What about sending robots first to build at least partially self-sustaining habitats? What about finding ways to protect people from the cosmic radiation during at least three years (x2) long journey to and from the planet? What about ways of bringing them back? What about the storage of supplies, more importantly food, for six years and the mass of a rocket? What about the loss of muscles and bones mass? Last time I checked currently we have no means of creating artificial gravity in space.

Dozens of very hard to resolve question and somehow Elon claims we'll have them resolved by 2024. Unbelievable.

Re:One way ticket?

[turbidostato]

"We aren't ever going to live anywhere else but the Earth. We evolved on Earth."

We aren't ever going to live anywhere else but East Africa. We evolved on East Africa.

Re:One way ticket?

[110010001000]

I knew some fool would post this. Here is a hint: East Africa is a LOT like West Africa. Antartica is also a LOT LIKE East Africa compared to Mars.

Re:One way ticket?

[Lab Rat Jason]

Then your point is lacking... because when something isn't routine, it's only a matter of time until it is, and the only way to make going to mars routine is to do it first in a non-routine condition, and do it so often that it becomes routine. People flying in airplanes used to not exist... then it was novel... then it was routine. Antarctica is a piece of cake compared to space, you realize that, right? And people have been successfully living in space for a while now.

Are there dangers on mars? Yes. Are people willing to face those dangers to achieve something important to them? Yes. There has always been two kinds of people in this world: Those who value discovery above human life, and those who value human life above discovery. You are obviously in the latter group. I'm also in the latter group... but that doesn't mean I can't appreciate someone who has the vision and huevos to try.

Re:One way ticket?

[Kierthos]

We don't know that yet. Yes, someone who stays on Mars for a substantial amount of time will have physiological changes in response to the lower gravity, similar to what the astronauts who are on the ISS go through in micro-gravity.

But those ISS personnel are up there for months at a stretch, and it didn't automatically kill them. (To note, Scott Kelly was up there for almost a full year, and he's been back on Earth since March 1st. We're still studying the effects on his health.

Are there physiological changes due to differences in gravity? Yes. Can they be ameliorated? To an extent. Can they be ignored. No. Are they automatically fatal? No.

Now, clearly, if someone lives on Mars (or the Moon) for years, well, they longer they live there, the less likely they're going to be able to return to Earth due to those changes.

No, it's not a solved set of problems yet. But that's a far cry from just flat out saying they're an unsolvable set of problems.

Re:Stupid predictions

[AmiMoJo]

We are no closer to AI than we were 40 years ago

I don't recall computers 40 years ago being able to beat grand masters at chess or dominate gameshows by answering natural language questions. Practical, useful AIs are available on demand to anyone with a phone these days. Sure, they aren't pure artificial brain types, but they are capable of viewing and understanding the world.

no closer to putting people on Mars than we were 40 years ago either

Except perhaps for all the practice we have had at living in space for long periods of time, developing lighter and more agile space suits, getting many more countries on-board, that sort of thing. Oh, and the small fact that we have explored Mars in much greater detail, from satellites and from rovers, which is a precursor to landing there just as exploring the moon was.

Re:Why the political ending?

[Archangel Michael]

Don't forget the legacy of Sanders' wife on that other university. But since that was pie in the sky progressive logic that failed there, we'll ignore it. Besides, Bernie had nothing to do with it (being his wife and all that). Of course, Bernie's wife, Hillary's Husband are off limits, but Trumps Wife is fair game.

No, I am not voting for Trump, just pointing out that hypocrisy abounds in this election cycle.