Slashdot Mirror


Renewables Are Set To Overtake Gas and Coal By 2027 (computerworld.com)

Lucas123 writes: Renewable energy, including solar, wind and hydroelectric will overtake natural gas as an energy source by 2027. According to a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ten years later those same renewables will have surpassed the largest electricity-generating fossil fuel: coal. Solar and wind will account for almost 60% of the $11.4 trillion invested in energy over the next 25 years, according to Bloomberg's New Energy Outlook 2016 report. One conclusion that may surprise, Bloomberg noted, is that the forecast shows no golden age for natural gas, except in North America. As a global generation source, gas will be overtaken by renewables in 2027. The electric vehicle boom will increase electricity demand by 2,701TWh (terawatt hours), or 8% of global electricity demand in 2040. The rise of EVs will drive down the cost of lithium-ion batteries, making them increasingly attractive to be deployed alongside residential and commercial solar systems.

16 of 263 comments (clear)

  1. It's tough to make predictions by turkeydance · · Score: 3, Funny

    especially about the future....Berra

  2. title seems to be misleading, at best. by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Informative

    Title and summary don't agree. There is a difference between "surpass coal and gas by 2027" and "surpass gas by 2027 and surpass coal by 2037".

    Even ignoring the date differences, there's a difference between "surpass gas", "surpass coal", and "surpass gas and coal".

    And let's not get into the whole base load thing. Gas and solar isn't baseload, but coal is....

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    1. Re:title seems to be misleading, at best. by tomhath · · Score: 3, Informative

      As soon as you produce significant amounts of power with wind or solar, obviously you are replacing traditional base load plants with it.

      No, you're not. What you are doing is allowing the base load plants to be idle during times the intermittent plants are generating.

      A base load plant must be capable of meeting the grid's minimum demand 24x7x365. Wind and especially solar can never guarantee that.

    2. Re:title seems to be misleading, at best. by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Gas and solar isn't baseload, but coal is....

      "Baseload" is defined as the lowest point on the demand curve over a fixed time period, it would be meaningful to this discussion if there was a city somewhere on this planet that had a flat demand curve. Such a city does not exist so "baseload" generators must store electricity in giant batteries called hydroelectric dams. When the batteries are still not enough to meet peak demands they have to fire up the gas turbines. There is absolutely no logical/technical reason why renewables cannot use the same infrastructure to match the supply and demand curves.

      Agree, the title is misleading but so is every 20yr economic forecast I've ever seen.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    3. Re:title seems to be misleading, at best. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You are mixing things up :D

      A base load plant must be capable of meeting the grid's minimum demand 24x7x365.
      No it must not. That is the way how old base load was generated traditionally. Meanwhile it is no longer done that way.

      The definition is btw the other way around: we need x% base load!! Solution: we build the cheapest plant thinkable and build enough of them and then let them run close to 100% all year, 24/365.
      No where in this question and solution is mentioned that a base load plant needs to run allways like that. You can simply replace them by anything else, if the costs are fine. Bottom line every plant type is "base load capable".

      Wind and especially solar can never guarantee that.
      They don't need to do that, see: Germany, Portugal, Denmark as a few examples. Neither of them has as many base load plants as they need base load.

      What you are doing is allowing the base load plants to be idle during times the intermittent plants are generating.
      So they are not running always at 100% nice that you figured that.

      Modern grids have basically no base load plants anymore, and future grids definitely wont have them anymore at all. That is a no brainer.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    4. Re:title seems to be misleading, at best. by Dan+East · · Score: 4, Informative

      Two problems with your statements.

      The first is the terminology. Instead of referring to them as "baseload" plants, they are now calling them "portable dispatchable power" and they're in the form of natural gas turbines. So yes, there is still backup "baseload" power generation that is non-renewable. The fact that it may be smaller scale and distributed does not change the fact that it is still non-renewable, serves the baseload needs, and runs off of fossil fuel. They might be more efficient in that they can spin up faster and don't cost as much as idling, say, a nuclear power plant, is the only difference.

      The second is that Germany falls back on power from France and the Czech Republic (both mainly nuclear power), for example, to meet their baseload needs. They have a crutch to lean on whenever, as they are totally surrounded by other countries whose grids they are connected to. How's that supposed to work in a country like the USA? Grab power from Mexico when needed? LOL You try to look at Germany as a stand-alone shining example of what the USA is supposed to be, yet when you take Europe as a whole you see that it isn't technically possible for it all to generate power like Germany does.

      I just think it's funny how your post talks so adamantly how baseload generation can totally go away but you talk around it and never say how that is supposed to happen.

      --
      Better known as 318230.
    5. Re:title seems to be misleading, at best. by FirstOne · · Score: 4, Informative

      I don't buy into the projected increasing amounts of coal usage. As the Chinese discovered, one pays a heavy price burning coal, (pollution of water, soil, air), and India will soon learn this lesson first hand.

      Coal in the USA maybe a NOP by 2027, where coal generation peaked near 49% (2007), 33%(2015) and is still dropping like a rock 31% (April 2016).

      As for the so called base-load argument, is a fool's argument, eventually we will need to use renewable's to provide more than 150% of our overall demand, using excess energy production to put Carbon back into the ground. Preferably in the form of Methane(CH4), which we can later tap to stabilize the grid when needed.

      .

  3. We should speed this up by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I see no reason why polluting industries like (oil/gas companies) should be subsidized at all. Frankly, we should be taxing them based on how much pollution they emit and how damaging it is. We are eventually going to have to remove CO2 from the air and it's going to be a pricey project. We might as well start saving money for it now.

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    1. Re:We should speed this up by Salgak1 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Just as long as renewables ALSO don't get any subsidies. I would note that the pollution for wind and solar is remote from the operational location: smelting and refining the rare earths for magnets and solar panels isn't exactly what you would call a "green" process. . .

    2. Re:We should speed this up by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 3, Informative

      And smelting and refineing the materials for a coal plant or a water turbine, is green?

      Actually in civilized countries processing of raw materials is regulated and basicaly non poluting.

      Solar Panels don't use rare earthes btw ...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  4. Commercial rooftops are wasted space by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Large scale maybe, but if every home could provide 75% of their load through local solar panels during a hot summer day then the overall grid will be better. As the usage wouldn't spike as much.

    I've wondered for a long time why we don't have every commercial building rooftop covered in solar panels. Particularly any building that utilizes air conditioning. It's just wasted space right now. Rather than put the panels in fields somewhere, use the space we already have for something productive.

    I realize there are some economic and technical hurdles but in principle it's insane not to use solar panels on rooftops wherever possible. Install some battery systems and smarts to the grid to distribute the power adequately.

  5. Re:Citation please by Bongo · · Score: 3, Interesting

    So long as "smart grid" isn't like "smart bomb", ie. yeah it's better, but innocents still die, as it were. The so-called "renewables" can help in some places, but not enough to really make a difference? ie. replace fossil fuels. And it is up to the enthusiasts for renewables to show that they could. I want my green paradise Earth as much as anyone. And humanity is like a cancer that will keep eating everything. So unless renewables actually do work, people will simply keep using coal or whatever they can afford, and nobody can stop that. It isn't a question of whether people are willing to get with the program, it is that when people are stressed, they'll resort to whatever means they can, and if that means completely abandoning green initiatives, then they'll do that. So the first question is just, do renewables actually work to replace base load? It'll only make it harder later if they don't. It is up to champions of renewable energy to SHOW that they can.

  6. Re:Expect the same by ultranova · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Here, climate change is an evil hippy illuminati conspiracy. It's all about taking your money away, or something.

    No, it's just that pretending climate change doesn't exist has been succesfully made part of conservative identity, just like being anti-abortion and anti-gay is part of evangelical identity. Some believers rationalize the dogma through conspiracy theories, some by re-interpreting the data, but the real reason is that enough lobbyists told them that people like them believe climate change doesn't exist.

    It's actually a pretty fascinating view into the human psyche.

    --

    Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

  7. All power sources generate some pollution by sjbe · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Ah, but what of the pollution costs of rare earth mining and refining ?

    Probably substantial and it should be factored into the cost of any products that use them. My guess is that the pollutants that result from such refining are substantially easier to mitigate than the CO2 and other crap that spews from every fossil fuel power plant, mine and transport. If for no other reason than scale. I'm no expert so I could be wrong but I doubt it. The amounts of rare earth minerals needed for a typical solar panel is minute. Compare this to the (literally) tons of coal burned for every human on earth it seems improbably that the pollution footprint for the rare earth mining and use would be greater than the footprint for coal mining and use.

    I don't think anyone who understands the technology is arguing that there is no pollution from wind or solar. There clearly is. But it also seems clear from the available data that it is an improvement. We're looking for least-worst here. There is no useful form of power without some drawbacks. Even photosynthesis has some negative implications in certain circumstances. Where the problem lies is that some forms of energy (particularly fossil fuels) aren't realizing even close to the full cost of the pollution they generate. It's a tough problem. The solutions are mostly straightforward (taxes mostly) but politically that is very difficult to realize.

  8. Re:lets wait what happens if Trump gets president by rahvin112 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Coal isn't being destroyed by the stroke of a Pen. Fracking is destroying coal. The new coal regulations aren't even into effect yet and coal has already been devastated by competition with gas. Coal has gotten a free pass for nearly 300 years to dump uranium, mercury and dozens of other heavy metals all over our cities and crops. It's high time that changed, regardless of the impact to the industry. There is so much mercury in fish these days that you probably shouldn't even eat it.

    What you see with Trump is selling the narrative that the coal companies would like to see sold. That is the idea that government regulations are destroying their industry, not competition with cheap gas.

  9. Re:Frankly by rahvin112 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Your right, installing solar panels north of a certain latitude is just nuts, you know like Germany, that's at the latitude as Quebec and cloudy all the time, it would be just stupid to install solar panels there.