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Lyft Says Robots Will Drive Most Of Its Cars in Five Years (recode.net)

Posted by msmash on from the autonomous-future dept.

A week after its rival Uber began rolling out self-driving cars in Pittsburgh, Lyft has said it also expects to roll out its self-driving by next year. Its president John Zimmer outlined a "three-phase" plan for the company, noting that self-driving cars will be made available to Lyft users in the first phase. But in this phase, it only plans to roll out self-driving cars that can "drive along fixed routes" and that the "technology is guaranteed to be able to navigate." Recode adds: In the second phase, the self-driving cars in the fleet will navigate more than just the fixed routes, but will only drive up to 25 miles per hour. As the technology matures and the software encounters more complex environments, Zimmer wrote, cars will get faster. The third phase, expected to happen sometime in 2021 or 2022, will be when all Lyft rides will be completed by a fully autonomous car. Shortly after that phase begins, car ownership will see a steep drop-off, according to Zimmer. Zimmer, who has long been a vocal proponent of ending car ownership, set a date for the death of the personally owned car in major U.S. cities: 2025.

13 of 274 comments (clear)

  1. So a guy that runs a ride sharing company. by sims+2 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Says that self driving cars will put an end to car ownership.

    It could put a dent in it but unless this makes people so broke that they can't own their own car I think personal space will still win out.

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    1. Re:So a guy that runs a ride sharing company. by PIBM · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Reason #1 it won't happen; families.

      Here I have 4 kids, each requiring different car seats size / adjustments. We are bringing and keeping different stuff for the kids (Stroller, diapers, their favorite movies) which stay with us without needing to grab it at our Xth destination. Keeping our previous purchases safe while we go for our next stop, and the items we don't need at that stop (no stroller at the grocery store) is a major win that lyft rides won't provide.

      It might definitely help reduce the percentage of ownership, but it certainly can't sign the death certificate.

    2. Re:So a guy that runs a ride sharing company. by drinkypoo · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Says that self driving cars will put an end to car ownership.

      Even the automakers are expecting ride sharing to put a major dent in auto sales. Their analysts have been talking about this for years and most of them are invested in ride sharing. They are definitely talking about self-driving cars being part of this equation, and again, have been for years.

      People who can't really afford to own a car responsibly often own one anyway, because they can't function without one in a world so dependent on private transportation. Most nations fit that description; people using public transportation suffer badly compared to vehicle owners because of public transport's many deficiencies. Self-driving cars have the potential to eliminate virtually all of those deficiencies. You can get a car when you want one, you don't have to worry about whether the driver is fit to do his job because there isn't a driver, and the vehicles don't inherently cause traffic flow problems with other vehicles, decreasing the overall efficiency of the system.

      Since the economy isn't exactly improving, you can reasonably expect vehicle ownership to continue to decrease. The age of the U.S. fleet in particular continues to increase to ever-higher record levels. People are buying less cars, that's a fact. They're buying less cars both because they can not afford as many cars because the economy is still in the toilet, and because they can better function on public transportation than in the past because some new options have opened up under the name of "ride sharing". Whether they are ride-sharing or not isn't really the point here (though they aren't) but that they now exist when they didn't before. Yes, those are private transportation systems, but anyone who does not abuse them can use them.

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    3. Re:So a guy that runs a ride sharing company. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And can you imagine haling a 'cab' for every stop in your running around at around $10 a pop?

      What you are missing is that it won't be $10 a pop. Today, the biggest expense is the driver. Once the driver is gone, the price will fall dramatically. Also, a typical Uber/Lyft driver today drives for about 4 hours a day. A self-driving-car can operate 24/7. So the increased supply will drive down the price, while the lower amortization cost per ride will drive down the cost even more.

      Uber and Lyft will also face pricing pressure from improvements in mass transit. Even for a bus, the biggest cost is the driver. As big human-driven buses driving fixed routes, are replaced with small self-driving vans driving flex-routes, prices will go down and ridership will go up.

    4. Re:So a guy that runs a ride sharing company. by Thud457 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Get back to me when Roomba can avoid smearing dogshit all over the house.

      Then maybe I'll consider the possibility that a robot car can safely discern a child running into the street from a abandoned shopping bag blown in the wind.

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      the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    5. Re:So a guy that runs a ride sharing company. by swb · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Totally autonomous cars will have to be part of this for it to succeed, otherwise there won't be enough car owners and drivers to drive around the people who don't own a car.

      I feel like automakers have been talking about this like Elon Musk is talking about going to Mars. I don't doubt that self-driving cars will be a reality, but I'm really wondering if they will be a reality in my lifetime (I'm 50).

    6. Re: So a guy that runs a ride sharing company. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You realize that the biggest cost is the driver because the driver is paying for the car right?

      No. Do the math. A typical Uber driver grosses about $18/hour. If he buys a $30k car, keeps it for 10 years, and drives 4 hours per day, 5 days a week, then that is about $3 / hour. Much more is paying for the driver than the cost of the car.

      For an SDC that drives 20 hr/day, 365 days per year, the cost per hour is about 50 cents.

  2. Automatic elevators were first by mi · · Score: 5, Funny

    How sad to see the nice, well-groomed and jovial men operating elevators replaced with the soulless automation.

    We are going to miss the nice, well-groomed and jovial cab-drivers too...

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    In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
  3. Picard meme "Not this shit again" by OzPeter · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The third phase, which according to the graph the company expects to be sometime in 2021 or 2022, will be when all Lyft rides will be completed by a fully autonomous car. Shortly after that phase begins, car ownership will see a steep drop-off, according to Zimmer. Zimmer, who has long been a vocal proponent of ending car ownership, set a date for the death of the personally owned car in major U.S. cities: 2025.

    So he wants to totally rewrite the entire legal basis for cars, road rules and insurance in the US within the next 9 years? And expect that in a country where people almost idolize their cars that they are suddenly going to say "hell yes .. I'm selling my car tomorrow!"

    Where can I get some of what he's smoking?

    Alternatively its purely a BS reaction to Uber to try and remind people that Lyft exists and is relevant.

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  4. HOW are they NOT a TAXI service at this point? by tekrat · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Lyft and Uber can no longer maintain that they are a "ride sharing service" where independent contractors own and operate their own vehicles.

    In the autonomous cars case, Lyft and Uber CLEARLY own the vehicles!!!! They are a TAXI service and need to be regulated as such.

    How the hell have state and local prosecutors allowed them to get away with this??

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
  5. Get out of your city more often by Etcetera · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The tech industry would be much less hilarious if so-called visionaries left the Bay Area or the East Coast Boston/Phil/NY/DC metropolitan areas more often.

    If you get out into the other 98% of America, you'd realize that a) we like cars and b) we like ownership of property and things like cars.

    Stop trying to solve problems that only exist in San Francisco. Thanks.

    --
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  6. Re:When was the last time you were in a cab? by nicolaiplum · · Score: 3, Interesting

    In the last 2 weeks I have taken licensed taxis in the Netherlands, UK, and USA. In all cases the drivers were reasonably competent, at least as well groomed as me, and either quiet and polite or jovial and talkative.

    In the USA, the main problem with taxis is in the places with a limited number of licenses for taxis, possessed by rentiers who have no incentive to improve service and whose employee drivers have no autonomy and earn very little. Un-limit the taxi number and give them autonomy and quality would greatly improve.

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    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled"
  7. Re:bald tires, upatched OS, questionable brakes by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 3, Informative

    Eliminating the driver also eliminates the person most likely to complain loudly about life-threatening deferred maintenance.

    Almost all traffic accidents are because of human error or inattention. The second biggest reason is road conditions. Poor maintenance and mechanical failure account for about 3% of all accidents, but less than 1% of fatal or injury causing accidents.

    An accident, or even a mechanical breakdown on the road, is much more expensive than routine maintenance. So a profit-maximizing company would ensure that routine maintenance is done. This is no different than rental car companies today.