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SpaceX Shows Off Its Interplanetary Transport System in New Video (techcrunch.com)

Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to send humans to Mars with a ship called the Interplanetary Transport System, the company announced today in a video, revealing how the ITS will actually work. The ITS will be capable of carrying up to 100 tons of cargo -- people and supplies -- and it will utilize a slew of different power sources en route to Mars. From a report on TechCrunch: SpaceX has released a new video showing a CG concept of its Interplanetary Transport System, the rocket and spacecraft combo it plans to use to colonize Mars. The video depicts a reusable rocket that can get the interplanetary spacecraft beyond Earth's orbit, and a craft that uses solar sails to coast on its way to a Mars entry. The booster returns to Earth after separating from the shuttlecraft to pick up a booster tank full of fuel, which it then returns to orbit to fuel up the waiting spaceship. The booster craft then also returns to Earth under its own power, presumably also for re-use. The solar arrays that the spacecraft employs provide 200 kW of power, according to captions in the video.The Verge is live blogging SpaceX's conference, and has details on specs.

202 comments

  1. Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    That's some incredibly sophisticated vapor. Amazing!

    1. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, landing the booster right next to the refueling tanker seems little,eh... optimistic

    2. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yep, you can just barely smell the faintest waft off bullshit. Amazing how well they hid the smell like that.

    3. Re:Wow by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I dunno. They've managed to land boosters on barges in the ocean. They've managed to land boosters on dry land. They're getting pretty good at landing these things.

    4. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

      Two failures of an brand new rocket system, one of which wasn't their fault (faulty struts from a contractor), gets it labeled a death trap? No doubt they need to iron out the kinks in the system but when you're doing something new, on a budget that wouldn't pay for NASAs office staff, and at rates that are half or less what the rest of the launch industry is charging, you have to expect some issues.

    5. Re:Wow by shadowp157 · · Score: 1

      How many times did you fall, learning to ride your first bike? I think this is a wee bit more complex, and the fact that they nailed 6 of their first 11 attempts is pretty incredible.

    6. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They are cutting corners with safety to make their death trap cheap. They should be stopped before they start killing people.

    7. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How many times did you fall, learning to ride your first bike?

      I also didn't announce I was going win the tour de France before I could ride a bike without constantly falling.

    8. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This is not a Microsoft me-too product announcement. Elon Musk has actually delivered on his previous high risk projects and plans. And he puts his money where his mouth is.
      Frankly, if anyone is likely to not sell bullshit, but actually make a valid attempt at realizing this, it is Elon Musk.
      Bullshit is what you get when you let Congress micromanage the NASA budget.

    9. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I agree. There's no way to land a man on the moon, and I can't understand why anybody would be crazy enough to even try.

    10. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Elon Musk has constantly failed to deliver on his previous high risk projects and plans.

      Fixed that for you.

    11. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't try logic with Space Nutters, they hate that. Give them a bigger box of coloring crayons for their sci-fi comic book fantasies.

    12. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And that's different from NASA/Energia how? Both burnt hundreds of billions of dollars and killed over a dozen astronauts/cosmonauts, and hundreds of workers/civilians in the process. The only difference with private spaceflight (non-cost plus) will be that it will cost a LOT less and things will improve drastically with every launch instead of the snails pace we've become accustomed to. It should also be noted that neither of SpaceX's failures would have resulted in the loss of a hypothetical crew, the Dragon cargo capsule survived the first failure and continued transmitting until it hit the ocean (an actual crew would have overrode the computer and deployed the parachutes) and the second failure would never have had a crew on-board during a engine test and even if they were the LAS would have carried them away from the Falcon 9.

    13. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's no way for space ex to land a man on the moon alive and would be crazy enough to even try.

      Fixed that for you.

    14. Re:Wow by WolfgangVL · · Score: 1

      No reason to stop them. If they want to cut corners, let them. Buyer beware. It's dangerous going to space, and if your going, you are expected to have accepted that. Ensure your cargo.

      You are welcome to spend more money on your own safer "death-trap" ticket. Some of us are willing to accept a little risk to do great things.

      --
      You are being ripped off every second of every day, so that advertisers can help rip you off even more tomorrow.
    15. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bah, another space nutter. I'll bet you think cavorite is real. They even tried a simulation, and three men were killed.

    16. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That wasn't logic. That was more akin to throwing a tantrum while beating a strawman with a wiffle-ball bat.

    17. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      'with every launch instead of the snails pace we've become accustomed to' - but back in those olden days of big government and hippies the US managed to go from putting a guy into orbit to landing men on the moon in under a decade.

    18. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Murder requires intent (either direct or gross negligence). Under the lengths you're suggesting "intent" should extend three separate NASA administrations should have been up on murder charges. One for filling a spacecraft with pure oxygen, something anyone with any experience with the stuff would tell you was outright crazy. One for purposely launching despite warnings from engineers saying that it was dangerous to launch under freezing conditions and another for blithely ignoring massive chunks of high density foam slamming into the shuttle on multiple occasions. What has SpaceX done that is anywhere near that level of incompetence? They had one outside contractor manufacturing struts that failed at a fifth their rated load and a helium tank failure that experienced engineers still can't quite explain.

    19. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Yeah, landing the booster right next to the refueling tanker seems little,eh... optimistic

      The video is clearly stylized and not meant to be taken that literally. Unless you think the arrival of the spacecraft is supposed to make Mars spin until it develops oceans ;)

      That said, while there's much to like, there's one aspect of it that's really clawing at me... the fact that they plan to make it out of composites. Including the LOX tank. We've never succeeded (and failed multiple times) at making flight-intent LOX tanks for orbital rockets. And they want to make the first time be on what's by far the largest rocket ever built? Without a lining?

      Is it worth mentioning that they just had an explosion somehow related to the only major carbon fiber component in the Falcon 9 in a LOX tank?

      CF becomes brittle in LOX. It leaks. And most concerningly, it's impact / shock sensitive in LOX. At atmospheric pressure it usually won't do a self-sustained burn on impact, but it chars on impact, and even that alone would be bad. But they plan to have significant pressure as well. He mentions briefly that they expect this to be one of the biggest challenges, getting stable coatings and the like. I think that's an understatement.

      I just don't want to see the largest rocket ever built turn into the largest flying fireball on Earth. I don't trust composites with LOX. Composite cryogenics tanks are an active research topic, and they're making progress, but it's not a solved problem.

      --
      "You abandoned me! You abandoned my hatred!" "I... I have cuttlefish..."
    20. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's compressed unicorn gas that is implanted into an Apple headphone plug substitute, made of medical grade silicon.

    21. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Kill yourself? Kill yourself!

    22. Re:Wow by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1, Insightful

      They are cutting corners with safety to make their death trap cheap. They should be stopped before they start killing people.

      Because SpaceX is a private effort, you have no way of doing that. You will have to be satisfied with getting your lawyers to kill off government infrastructure projects instead.

    23. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Safer than the space shuttle.

    24. Re:Wow by the_Bionic_lemming · · Score: 1

      How did the laser reflectors that were planted so we could bounce laser light off of it get to the moon then ?

      --
      _ _ _ Go for the eyes Boo! GO FOR THE EYES!
    25. Re:Wow by LS · · Score: 0

      And now I remember why I stopped visiting Slashdot. All the loser mentality in this thread about such a monumental plan is disheartening. If I wanted to interact with anonymous haters I could visit 4chan.

      --
      There is a fine line between being a cultivated citizen and being someone else's crop. - A. J. Patrick Liszkie
    26. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not according to facts. Space Ex's death trap has a 10 times worse failure rate then any other system in the history of space flight.

    27. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They had one outside contractor manufacturing struts that failed at a fifth their rated load

      This is an example of them cutting corners. They should have tested it before they installed it.

      and a helium tank failure that experienced engineers still can't quite explain.

      They should be banned from making any launches until they can prove they have corrected to problem.

    28. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Yeah, landing the booster right next to the refueling tanker seems little,eh... optimistic"

      Have we not been paying attention to the last few Falcon 9 landings? They seem to be able to put it pretty much right on the X logo. Now I agree that in reality its going to be a bit more complicated than displayed in the video. I would wager that either the exhaust pit would need some doors which could close for the landing, Or a landing pad off to the side but in reach of the crane. After the landing in either case the crane would lift the first stage and position it back on the launchpad, then lift the fuel tanker onto the rocket.

    29. Re: Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go fuck yourself.

    30. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No doubt there would be challenges, but based on their past efforts they can overcome many challenges at a breathtaking rate.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMLDAgDNOhk

    31. Re: Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How is that fixed?!? He's succeeding at whatever he puts his mind to. OMG one COPV goes poof and everyone thinks he's a failure. Tesla and SpaceX are lapping their competition.

    32. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

      They're not only not cutting corners with safety, they tend to give extra margins to stuff. Sadly, they don't have the benefit of designing a system, working out the kinks for fifteen years and then using it the next half a century like the Russians did with the Soyuz. So the "working out the kinks" part is happening right now. If you have any problems with that, go argue with Mother Nature which hates engineers and throws logs under their legs every now and then.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    33. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      You're one of those people who after buying screws from an established screw manufacturer first X-rays all of the them before use? Good for you! And for the X-ray film vendor, of course.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    34. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When you built a gigantic bomb, has the potential to get a lot of people killed, you better do quality control.

    35. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      They're actually an industry average so far.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    36. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wrong

    37. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      So you're prefer the Space Launch Initiative and Visions for Space Exploration projects? :D We know how these and all their rehashes turned out. Lots of paper rockets, no real hardware. Finally, after decades of all talk, someone is actually building at least a new quality engine. It's fantastic how despite all those big plans in the last thirty years, nobody has been able to do anything about this most basic requirement for spaceflight in the US.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    38. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      No, they don't. That would mean about 35% of launch failures which hasn't materialized so far.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    39. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You know, you're right, I was being to lenient. At least a snails pace would be progress, we've actually gone backwards (especially in the US). We literally can't even put a person into orbit at the moment, and our governments efforts to get us back into space have been abysmal. Its been OVER a decade and even cobbling together preexisting hardware (Constellation/SLS/STS) we haven't been able to put together a launcher in MORE time than it took them to build several (Apollo variants, Gemini, etc). The one glimmer of hope is NASAs efforts to farm out some astronaut transport services, which began in about 2010 and despite major budget shortfalls as well as efforts to defund it completely are close to putting astronauts into orbit.

    40. Re:Wow by belthize · · Score: 0

      Errm, shit happens. For all practical purposes by that argument your parents committed murder the second they exchanged sufficient DNA to generate you, just a matter of waiting around to see if it was Colonel Mustard in the Library or what that did you in.

    41. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      They are doing quality control.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    42. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1
      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    43. Re:Wow by murdocj · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The problem is if you miss landing on a barge, you lose the booster. If you miss landing and hit a giant fuel tank, you lose a lot more.

    44. Re:Wow by murdocj · · Score: 1

      Yep... not exactly a snail's pace. Remember what they were starting from... trying to put a couple of pounds in orbit.

    45. Re:Wow by murdocj · · Score: 1

      Yeah, it's not like we have rovers on Mars, orbiters around Jupiter, functioning interstellar probes, missions to pick up pieces of asteroids... oh, wait...

    46. Re:Wow by the_Bionic_lemming · · Score: 1

      Rigghhhtttt.

      Have you ever personally given birth?

      You were born under a cabbage leaf you know...

      --
      _ _ _ Go for the eyes Boo! GO FOR THE EYES!
    47. Re:Wow by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

      Regulations could keep SpaceX from using any specific launch facility in the US, but nothing prevents it from going to some hungry little place elsewhere in the world. On the other hand NASA, with the best of intentions, is fully subject to domestic politics. That's why it wisely sticks to unmanned probes these days. Let risk be for the private sector.

    48. Re:Wow by BoogieChile · · Score: 1

      Obviously, they didn't. The moon is covered with naturally occurring corner reflectors

    49. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Given that the article is about MANNED space travel (specifically a possible colony transport) one would generally think that that would be the focus of the subject.

    50. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're a moron.

      Space Ex 29 launches, 2 Launch failures. Loss rate 6%

      Delta IV 33 launches, 0 Launch failures. Loss rate 0%

      Delta IV Heavy 9 launches, 0 Launch failures. Loss rate 0%

      Saturn IV 14 lunches, 0 Launch failures. Loss rate 0%

      Space Shuttle 135, 1 Launch failure. Lost rate 0.7%

      Space Ex has a 10 times worse failure rate that any other launch system.

    51. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's our old "friend" 1101101, but now he posts as AC because everyone has realized that he's a cunt.

    52. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They are not doing quality control.

      Fixed that for you. They only quality they are controlling is quality of the explosions of their piece of shit rockets.

    53. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Cherry-picking your data won't help your cause.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    54. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      BTW SpaceX so far has had only one launch failure, on CRS-7.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    55. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Atlas V 65 launches, 0 Launch failures. Loss rate 0%

      Energia 2 launches, 0 Launch failures. Loss rate 0%

      When you don't cut corners your rockets actually work.

    56. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      WRONG

      A launch fail is any failure to send the payload to orbit. Space Ex cut corners to cheap out and lost the payload during a static fire test. That makes two launch failures giving them the WORST loss rate of any modern launch system.

    57. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Cherry-picking your data won't help your cause. The global space launch industry average launch success rate hovers around 95%. SpaceX is average.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    58. Re:Wow by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      You're drunk, Gary Church, go home.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    59. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Some of us are willing to accept a little risk to do great things.

      It's not like the keyboard complainers risk anything more than having to skip yet another headline anyway.

    60. Re:Wow by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      Technically that's Flacon 9 has only had one launch failure... Falcon 1 failed three times before it succeeded. On the other hand, if we're counting back to literally the first rockets an organization tries to launch, NASA doesn't look so hot either.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    61. Re:Wow by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      It explicitly says that the booster lands back *on the launch pad*. And, realistically, there's no reason to expect they couldn't do that. SpaceX has had some difficulties with the landings in general, but landing *on the right spot* has not been hard. They've been goo with that from the first attempts, and are only getting more precise.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    62. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And now I remember why I stopped visiting Slashdot. All the loser mentality in this thread about such a monumental plan is disheartening. If I wanted to interact with anonymous haters I could visit 4chan.

      Be enheartened, grasshopper - some of us are (non-magical) dreamers, & just filter out the plodding pablum. :-)

    63. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      film isn't used anymore other than on older hardware.

    64. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You are forgetting the NUMEROUS failures the Russians had. A good number of people died.

    65. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 1

      That's not what people were complaining about in the video. What people were complaining about was that they were landing right next to an exposed, filled propellant stage. You don't land a skyscraper-sized fireball-on-a-stick right next to a half billion dollar tank of fuel. That aspect was clearly stylized.

      --
      "You abandoned me! You abandoned my hatred!" "I... I have cuttlefish..."
    66. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ariane 5 87 launches, 2 failures, 2 partial failures. Loss rate 4.6%.

      Same order of magnitude. Space X is in early days, they might well not have another issue before they reach 87 launches which'd mean they'd have done better.

    67. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "They've managed to land boosters on barges in the ocean. They've managed to land boosters on dry land."

      That is not the hard part of a manned mission to Mars.

    68. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Energia 2 launches, 0 Launch failures. Loss rate 0%

      Hardly statistically relevant. After 2 launches Falcon 9 also had a loss rate of 0%.

      Incidentally Ariane 5 has had 4 failures (2 total, 2 partial) out of 87 launches. 4.6% loss rate. However all were in the first 15 flights, so after 15 flights its loss rate was a whopping 27%. At the point Falcon 9 is at now its loss rate was 14%. That makes Falcon 9 more reliable than Ariane 5 at this point, and they may well have no further failures just like Ariane.

    69. Re:Wow by joh · · Score: 1

      This is not an engineering video. Because: The booster isn't shown to be tanked after landing and before launching the second time, the fuel freighter also isn't fueled up (and surely won't be sitting there and picked up and placed on the booster by a crane with fuel onboard, which would be much too heavy). This is basically a nice fluffy PR video for consumers, not for engineers. Obviously.

    70. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      lol at all the anti space nutters who are suggesting shutting down space ex now that they are forced to realize a mars trip might just be doable.

    71. Re:Wow by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Please tell me how many people were killed in the Space-X failures. You seem to think the answer is something like "a lot". Rockets are known to be potentially dangerous, so people take precautions. If a booster blows up on the pad, that's a lot of damage, and no one gets hurt.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    72. Re:Wow by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      One of the hard parts about manned missions to Mars is landing the spacecraft safely. There's not enough atmosphere for parachutes to do any good, but enough to give normal rocket landings problems. Space-X is demonstrating the ability to land on rocket power in an atmosphere.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  2. Direct video link by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qo78R_yYFA

  3. nice video, but the launch seems backwards by jim.shilliday2271 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    They show the spaceship being launched first, to be refueled by a drone tanker. Shouldn't the tanker be launched first? Unlike the spaceship, it can wait indefinitely in orbit if the second launch is delayed.

    1. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by Kjella · · Score: 4, Informative

      They show the spaceship being launched first, to be refueled by a drone tanker. Shouldn't the tanker be launched first? Unlike the spaceship, it can wait indefinitely in orbit if the second launch is delayed.

      I think that whole segment is full of artistic liberty. I'm sure they'll have reuse and fuel boosters and "quick" turnaround, but the Formula One pit stop where the rocket lands right next to a fuel pod, it is hoisted in place and is ready for liftoff again is fantasy. I'd guessing that logistically they'd always do it backwards with a previously landed and refurbished rocket launching first with the fuel, then if successful a new rocket with people that afterwards lands and it refurbished. But I think it's fair to leave practical details like that out to convey the essence to non-nerds.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    2. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They show the spaceship being launched first, to be refueled by a drone tanker. Shouldn't the tanker be launched first? Unlike the spaceship, it can wait indefinitely in orbit if the second launch is delayed.

      That's what I thought, too. Seems like pre-staging the fuel drones in orbit around Earth and Mars (for the return trip) would be safer.

    3. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by shadowp157 · · Score: 1

      You also have to consider that the second launch is the more dangerous one. This danger will obviously be mitigated over time, but i think they may be trying to distance themselves from their most recent mistake. Granted it wasn't the fault of the booster at all, but not everybody understands that.

    4. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 1

      Well, you could launch the tanker and main ship from geographically separate sites, too, though then you wouldn't be able to immediately reuse the same booster (and would probably use two separate but reusable boosters instead). Overall though, given the time frame involved, the main ship would probably only make a single orbit around the earth prior to meeting up with the tanker. I've spent longer than that on airplanes after pulling away from the gate waiting for clearance to takeoff.

    5. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by tomxor · · Score: 0

      I know it's early days but... so far, statistically the 1st re-use (2nd launch) have a 0% probability of surviving into orbit. I'd still stick the people on the fresh rocket, you can't replace people, you can replace fuel.

    6. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by werepants · · Score: 5, Informative

      Consider the fact that this is a promo video, just meant to demonstrate the architecture in layman's terms. In reality, sounds like during the 2-year wait between launch windows, these things will by flying continually, bringing up cargo and fuel to prep the transports. Crews will be sent up last, right before departure. Many ships are meant to make the trip simultaneously.

    7. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by iris-n · · Score: 2

      The tanker cannot really wait indefinitely, as the fuel it is holding is cryogenic (liquid methane/liquid oxygen), and boil-off is a problem.

      But yeah, they are probably going to do as you say. No point in keeping people waiting in orbit.

      --
      entropy happens
    8. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, I think there's a bunch of stuff they left out.

      Like sending at least one supply ship to Mars first with shelters, a rover to map and prepare a landing area and a nuclear reactor for power.

    9. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by Rei · · Score: 1

      I know it's early days but... so far, statistically the 1st re-use (2nd launch) have a 0% probability of surviving into orbit

      Since when does division by zero yield precisely zero?

      --
      "You abandoned me! You abandoned my hatred!" "I... I have cuttlefish..."
    10. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by hitchhacker · · Score: 3, Informative
      The ship going to mars is fueled multiple times while in earth's orbit. I guess the fuel is too heavy, so they are spreading it out over multiple launches. They are talking about reusing the same tanker to do this too:

      LOREN GRUSH 3:21:49 PM EDT Tanker will go up 3 to 5 times to fill up the ship.

      https://live.theverge.com/elon...

    11. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I had hoped they would manufacture it all in space with materials shot off of the Moon with a rail gun

      But then, I thought that I would have been working on the Moon 20 years ago

    12. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by swillden · · Score: 1

      so far, statistically the 1st re-use (2nd launch) have a 0% probability of surviving into orbit

      There is absolutely no data about the probability of a reused SpaceX rocket making it to orbit, because it's never been tried. The one that blew up wasn't a reused rocket, it was new.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    13. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by legRoom · · Score: 4, Interesting

      No point in keeping people waiting in orbit.

      Actually, it's quite possible that the mass of the fuel that would be lost to boil-off is greater than the mass of extra life support required to keep the crew alive a couple of extra weeks.

      As for making people wait - normally people's time is considered extremely valuable, but in this case we're talking about people who voluntarily signed up to move permanently to an isolated, barren, frozen, airless wasteland covered in abrasive, (mildly?) poisonous dust. Anyone who does so would probably rather spend the time waiting in "SPAAACCCCCEEEEE!" than on Earth, anyway.

      (Or at least they think they would... perhaps sending the people up first is an opportunity to find out who's going to get cold feet before it becomes economically infeasible to bring them home? Sending up a reusable Dragon capsule to collect a few such people from LEO at the last minute is surely cheaper than dealing with the all of the horrible problems that unwilling, depressed, panicky, or constantly space-sick colonists would tend to cause.)

    14. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by barc0001 · · Score: 1

      I dunno, they're using a reusable booster. I'd prefer to be going up on the 'virgin' launch on the booster instead of the second go around. I'd expect the second launch would be the more risky of the two.

    15. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by brian.stinar · · Score: 1

      That depends entirely on the level of disciple present in the colony.


      Countrymen, the long experience of our late miseries I hope is sufficient to persuade everyone to a present correction of himself, And think not that either my pains nor the adventurers' purses will ever maintain you in idleness and sloth... ...the greater part must be more industrious, or starve...

      You must obey this now for a law, that he that will not work shall not eat (except by sickness he be disabled). For the labors of thirty or forty honest and industrious men shall not be consumed to maintain a hundred and fifty idle loiterers.

      John Smith, Jamestown

    16. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by gnite · · Score: 1

      He said in the presentation that they will need 4-5 tanker trips per ship, that's why. Otherwise they'd need that many tankers having launched and waiting, so that's pretty stupid. And in the Q&A he said that depending on how long the fueling process takes the people will either launch with the ship and wait a couple of weeks in orbit, or launch after the ship is fueled on a second ship and then transfer to the one that's ready to go.

    17. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They show the spaceship being launched first, to be refueled by a drone tanker. Shouldn't the tanker be launched first? Unlike the spaceship, it can wait indefinitely in orbit if the second launch is delayed.

      They are talking about up to five launches of the tanker, before the spaceship tanks are full (fuel is heavy, empty tanks not so much, so the empty tanks can be a lot bigger).

      If you launch the fuel first, you need five tankers waiting in orbit. If you launch the spaceship first, you can reuse the fuel tanker.

      Besides, what difference does a couple of days waiting for fuel matter in a three to six month journey?

    18. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by legRoom · · Score: 1

      That depends entirely on the level of disciple present in the colony.

      While discipline can make a big difference, it's not a panacea. Some people will pull themselves together in response to the encouragement and/or threats of a good leader, but others won't.

      Even if they behave somewhat better on the outside out of fear of punishment, a person who is depressed, angry at their situation, or locked in a state of panic will still be less productive, less rational, and harder to get along with. Moreover, space-sickness (micro-gravity induced nausea) is a medical condition which no amount of "discipline" can solve if the person's body does not acclimate.

      Of course, actually following through on the threats is always an option - but starving troublemakers to death and then shoving them out an airlock is not going to be good for crew morale, and SpaceX may have a really hard time maintaining the support of the government and the public on Earth if news of such measures gets out.

    19. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by iris-n · · Score: 2

      They are not planning to take weeks to fuel the spaceship. The plan is to do it in a matter of hours.

      But getting people back to Earth is not really a problem; the spaceship is going to land on Mars, refuel there, and go back to Earth anyway. So the question is only if it is coming back empty or with regretful colonists.

      Not that I expect many people to want to come back. These are people who have paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege of doing hard and potentially fatal work. They may lack in good sense, but I don't think they lack in determination.

      --
      entropy happens
    20. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by joh · · Score: 1

      Boil-off of LOX and methane in space isn't an unsolvable problem and they have to solve it anyway, since they need fuel and LOX to land on Mars and if they can prevent boil-off for 6 months they also can prevent it for a few days or weeks more.

      But I agree, this video just shows it the way people expect things to look. All the details will be very different.

    21. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by iris-n · · Score: 1

      I think you're right. Not only they need enough fuel to survive until the landing in Mars, they also need to fuel it there and launch it back to Earth. There's no way they'll be able to do that without active cooling. I'd be curious to know the details.

      But the most incredible aspect of the video for me was that it shows the spaceship aerobraking directly from solar orbit to landing on Mars. Like braking from interplanetary speed to zero. Nobody has ever managed to do this. Maybe what they are actually planning to do is first aerobrake into a highly elliptic orbit on Mars, and then slowly aerobrake it into a circular orbit every time they pass through the periapsis, until the spaceship is slow enough that they can land it without it blowing up.

      --
      entropy happens
    22. Re:nice video, but the launch seems backwards by legRoom · · Score: 1

      They are not planning to take weeks to fuel the spaceship. The plan is to do it in a matter of hours.

      Really? For all three to five tanker trips?

      Regardless, the typical colony ship is still going to spend a while waiting in orbit given that Musk said that fleets of 200+ ships will gather in orbit and then leave all at the same time. It wouldn't make any sense to try to do 1000+ launches in a matter of hours; it would need so many launch pads which would probably just sit idle most of the rest of the time.

      But getting people back to Earth is not really a problem; the spaceship is going to land on Mars, refuel there, and go back to Earth anyway. So the question is only if it is coming back empty or with regretful colonists.

      Orbital mechanics and the need to produce new propellants on Mars first suggest that the return trip is a year or two later. That's a long time to deal with a troublemaker in dangerous space colony conditions. It's probably still better to just send them home before leaving, if possible.

  4. Tonnage by amiga3D · · Score: 1

    They say it can transport about 100 tons. That's not much for a colonization effort. The Mayflower that transported the pilgrims to America was rated at about 180 tons. They could expect to live off the land for the most part whereas whoever takes the trip to Mars will be entirely dependent on what they bring with them. Without help from the natives it's likely that the Mayflower's people would not have done as well if they managed to survive at all. Maybe the Martians will help Musk's colonists.

    1. Re:Tonnage by BradleyUffner · · Score: 1

      I believe there would be several automated trips before-hand to drop off supplies and materials so that the first colonists have some things waiting for them.

    2. Re:Tonnage by dreamchaser · · Score: 2, Informative

      The Mayflower's tonnage was around 180 tons. Tonnage is how water a ship displaces. The actual storage capacity is unknown but would have been a small amount of that.

    3. Re:Tonnage by amiga3D · · Score: 3, Informative

      No, a ships displacement is measured in tons but the 180 tons of storage is just that. The estimate of Mayflower's displacement is somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 tons and total weight about 400 tons including some 130 tons of ballast. Of course all these are approximations based on the given dimensions of the ship and what was typical for the period.

    4. Re:Tonnage by amicusNYCL · · Score: 1

      They say it can transport about 100 tons. That's not much for a colonization effort. The Mayflower that transported the pilgrims to America was rated at about 180 tons.

      Yeah I can't imagine how they're going to be able to be successful, what with the requirement that they can only carry supplies that were available in the early 1600s.

      In all seriousness though, I would expect that the first several ships are going to be unmanned supply ships, and that the people would make the journey only when there are sufficient supplies and they've had repeated success landing the things on Mars. If they have 500 tons of supplies from the 21st century waiting on the surface then I'm sure they can be better stocked than the Mayflower passengers.

      --
      "Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
    5. Re:Tonnage by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

      There will be fewer people going to Mars at first than the first voyage on the Mayflower. 102 on the Mayflower- probably only a dozen going to Mars. That said, there will probably still end up being more than 180 tons sent total due to supply craft going ahead of time- and no doubt supply ships scheduled ahead of time to send more supplies after they get there.

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    6. Re:Tonnage by werepants · · Score: 1

      There will be many ships flying simultaneously, some with more crew, some with more cargo. You don't start a 100-person colony with a single launch, it will be gradual.

    7. Re:Tonnage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How much space is there on the actual Mars ship? You're going to need food/water/general supplies for half a dozen people plus living area/medical facilities etc.

    8. Re:Tonnage by iris-n · · Score: 1

      -1, Pedantic.

      --
      entropy happens
    9. Re:Tonnage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Mayflower also didn't need to store a supply of oxygen for the trip over.

    10. Re:Tonnage by iris-n · · Score: 2

      While Mars is not exactly friendly, living off the land there is actually possible. This is why people even think about colonizing it. It has water, it has sun, it has CO2. Grow plants there and so on.

      But of course no one is going to colonize it with a single 100 ton ship. The idea is to send a lot of them. 10,000 was the number Musk quoted, to get to a self-sustaining industrial civilization.

      --
      entropy happens
    11. Re:Tonnage by Kjella · · Score: 2

      They say it can transport about 100 tons. That's not much for a colonization effort. The Mayflower that transported the pilgrims to America was rated at about 180 tons. They could expect to live off the land for the most part whereas whoever takes the trip to Mars will be entirely dependent on what they bring with them. Without help from the natives it's likely that the Mayflower's people would not have done as well if they managed to survive at all. Maybe the Martians will help Musk's colonists.

      Well, just like when Musk launched the Autopilot saying this is going to become our self-driving car he's exaggerating quite a bit what it'll do in the short term. It'll be an outpost, sustained by Earth resupplies and the bigger the outpost, the greater the need for resupplies. It'll be a very long time before you hit critical mass where each expansion would make it more self-reliant. It'll mostly be a proof of concept, can we expand the living quarters with on-site materials or do we need domes from earth? Can we generate enough food, water, air, heating and power and so on? The burden on Earth needs to go down, then the size of the outpost can go up.

      I expect they'll keep enough emergency supplies and consumables in reserve to survive while they try things out and figure out what works and doesn't. But if it doesn't work, we have to send more supplies and less people or all supplies and no people or in worst case just abandon it. Though I don't really believe that, I mean if they just sit in a bunker and eat canned food like on the ISS it's hard to see any reason why they should be forced to leave. But they also wouldn't really be making any progress towards colonization that way, it'd be just survival. Then again, surviving Mars might in itself be the first step since we haven't actually done that yet either.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    12. Re:Tonnage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah I can't imagine how they're going to be able to be successful, what with the requirement that they can only carry supplies that were available in the early 1600s.

      Bear in mind that in 16whatever America had breathable air.

    13. Re:Tonnage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not pedantic if the clarification counters the poster's argument. The entire point of the GP's post was that SpaceX's 100 tons is much less than the Mayflower's 180 tons.

    14. Re:Tonnage by hackertourist · · Score: 1

      Hang on. How can a ship displace 250 tons but weigh 400 tons? Or is 250 t the displacement when empty, and 400 t the loaded weight?

    15. Re:Tonnage by amiga3D · · Score: 1

      This was over 400 years ago and I believe they measured displacement as empty, not including ballast and armament. Actual displacement would probably be higher than 400 when loaded with passengers and cargo. I've been reading some of this stuff and it's pretty interesting.

    16. Re:Tonnage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Grow plants on mars?
      If it was that easy, we'd send a small vessel that simply brake and then scatter seeds from high altitude. Move in later, after the ground is covered in plants and mars has become much nicer.

      Unfortunately:
      * The sun is very weak - worse than arctic conditions. Mars is farther from the sun. The reason there is water, is that it is so deep frozen it can be considered a mineral.
      * The CO2 atmosphere is incredibly thin. Not much for plants to go on.
      * A garden on Mount Everest would be easier. Much easier.

  5. Re:Attention: NASA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    NASA figured that out a long time ago.

  6. Tanker Last ? by mossy+the+mole · · Score: 1

    Maybe I'm missing something but why not launch the propellant tanker first and have it wait in orbit for the manned craft ?

    1. Re:Tanker Last ? by werepants · · Score: 1

      They probably will do just that. Sounds like it will be two years of launching to get ready for the Mars departure window, with crews being the last to launch - this video was just meant to demonstrate the architecture concisely.

    2. Re:Tanker Last ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The people are the propellant!!!

    3. Re:Tanker Last ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The tanker needs to go up 3 to 5 times, so you could launch it first instead of second, but it still needs to be launched 3rd, 4th and last.

    4. Re:Tanker Last ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The people are the propellant!!!

      What, they get out and push? Silly wabbit.

    5. Re:Tanker Last ? by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 1

      The people are the propellant!!!

      Soylent LOX.

      --
      #DeleteChrome
    6. Re:Tanker Last ? by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      It takes multiple tanker runs to fully fuel one of the spaceships. They aren't likely to build enough tankers to have them all waiting in orbit for the moment eh spaceship finally launches. If it was a single run (like the video shows), it'd make sense to send the tanker first (unless boil-off is a particularly bad problem), but it's not a single run. More like 4-5 runs per spaceship.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
  7. More pie-in-the-sky shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Get back to me when they have something in orbit.

    1. Re:More pie-in-the-sky shit by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Get back to me when they have something in orbit.

      So, 28 September 2008?

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    2. Re:More pie-in-the-sky shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      SpaceX is doing a good job keeping up the NASA propaganda about the ball Earth model. I can look from horizon to horizon and see no evidence that the Earth is curved.

    3. Re:More pie-in-the-sky shit by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Religious people everywhere, spouting the nonsense of "everything in nature is straight"...Earth, people...give me a break.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    4. Re:More pie-in-the-sky shit by joh · · Score: 1

      I would score you up for being funny if I had any moderating points. (If the Earth wouldn't be curved there wouldn't be a horizon.)

  8. Terraforming teaser at the end? by killfixx · · Score: 1

    Probably the most interesting bit, after the 50s-esque ship landing on mars, is the terraforming teaser at the end...

    I wanna more about that!!

    How do they plan on restarting the magnetic core?

    --
    "Helping to keep you two steps ahead of the Thought Police!"
    1. Re: Terraforming teaser at the end? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      With an electric motor.

    2. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by Gary · · Score: 1, Funny

      Batteries my friend! Batteries.

    3. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by NotAPK · · Score: 1, Interesting

      "How do they plan on restarting the magnetic core?"

      I once saw a documentary on how to do this. I'm not saying that you use nukes. But you use nukes.

    4. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by k6mfw · · Score: 1

      if you are going to do it cheesy 50s-esque then do it right, http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KdaW...

      --
      mfwright@batnet.com
    5. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by phayes · · Score: 1

      Give mankind a few decades on Mars and we'll have Global Warming there too, we'll find a way even without Oil/Gas/Coal...

      --
      Democracy is a sheep and two wolves deciding what to have for lunch. Freedom is a well armed sheep contesting the issue
    6. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by werepants · · Score: 1

      Not sure about the core, but to get the atmosphere going they've talked about crashing comets into the planet and nuking the polar icecaps. :)

    7. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by killfixx · · Score: 1

      That's great and all. Just one issue, without a super-heated, spinning core the atmosphere will just blow away...

      Magnets, yo!

      --
      "Helping to keep you two steps ahead of the Thought Police!"
    8. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by Immerman · · Score: 2

      Sure. But it will do so over the course of many thousands to millions of years, allowing plenty of time for "booster shots" of atmosphere. If we can create it in the first place, maintenance is probably a much easier task.

      Even among naturally preserved atmospheres, there are other techniques for generating a magnetosphere should we decide to create one. Venus for example has no magnetic core, and is subjected to a *much* stronger solar wind, yet manages to hold on to it's atmosphere thanks to an induced magnetosphere generated within its ionosphere. Whether a similar process could be induced on Mars, I don't know, but it's proof that there's more than one way to generate a magnetosphere.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    9. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure. But it will do so over the course of many thousands to millions of years. . .

      And terraforming Mars will take how long in comparison?

    10. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Batteries my friend! Batteries.

      Good luck finding a charging station.

      On second thought, maybe Elon has thought of that already...

    11. Re:Terraforming teaser at the end? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Even if terraforming it takes a few thousands of years, it will stay habitable for at least two orders of magnitude longer. And I'm not sure anyone cares what will happen even 100 ky from now since who knows what capability mankind will have at that time.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
  9. Fuel tank by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why not send the fuel thank up first?

  10. Kearny Space Program by LifesABeach · · Score: 0

    Musk takes this seriously?

  11. couldn't coexist with their English neighbors by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Yeah, but the Pilgrims had to haul a lot of Bibles since the unknown wilderness they were shipped off too had Satan hiding behind every tree.

    There's no trees on Mars.

  12. The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by Prien715 · · Score: 1

    The hardest part of space travel is probably fuel economy which is why it makes little sense to see the booster rocket land on its own power. Sure, you can do it, but if you rely on your rocket engines entirely to decelerate (as the video clearly shows), you would need roughly double the fuel. Instead, what NASA and every other space agency has done, is to rely on parachutes and air resistance (yep, all the fire on the bottom of the shuttle, or a mercury capsule means that air resistance is actually slowing the spacecraft down). This is much more efficient. Another alternative would be to use the boosters for the final few seconds.

    And yes, I learned this playing Kerbal Space Program and Elon should know better since he plays too;)

    --
    -- Political fascism requires a Fuhrer.
    1. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by phayes · · Score: 1

      if you rely on your rocket engines entirely to decelerate (as the video clearly shows)

      You clearly haven't understood how Space-X plans to decelerate both stages of the ICT. The 1st stage will use atmospheric resistance just like the Falcon 9 does and the video clearly shows the ICT 2nd stage using atmospheric drag from 3:40 to 3:45 before moving on to terminal rocket deceleration.

      --
      Democracy is a sheep and two wolves deciding what to have for lunch. Freedom is a well armed sheep contesting the issue
    2. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by werepants · · Score: 1

      All you really need for re-use is extra fuel - the legs and fins don't add a lot of mass. In addition, you still get a ton of atmospheric deceleration to help you out on the way down, and the rocket is far lighter on the return trip so you don't need to burn as much fuel for the same acceleration as you do when you are taking off with a full load.

      So, all told, it's about 7% of fuel set aside to enable reuse. Pretty small price to pay to save your entire rocket. It also lessens your payload - but all the projections and designs that have been shown assume reuse, so the ITS can be launched with that existing payload penalty.

    3. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by Required+Snark · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Space-X is about optimization for launch systems, not optimization of a rocket. That's why they are so focused on reuse. It's the best way to bring down system costs in the long run.

      For example, the Saturn V used two different kinds of fuel: LOX with RP-1 and liquid hydrogen. This optimized performance for the 1st stage booster vs the upper stages. This increased the cost and complexity of the ground support. SpaceX uses only one kind of fuel for all stages. This reduces complexity and cost.

      If you build a booster stage that is robust enough to return with only aerobreaking, it is going to weigh more and be more complex. You pay for that extra weight for every launch. Note that some of the structure is only used for re-entry and is dead weight on the way up. Breaking with the engines means they are used both on the way up and the way down.

      As Musk points out in his presentation, fuel is the cheapest component of the launch system. Therefor it makes economic sense to use more fuel to land the launch stages, which are the expensive components.

      The people at SpaceX are not dumb. They came up with a different solution because they framed the problem differently. Rockets are hard, and there is not a single best way to build them. There are a lot of projects that use vertical powered landing: McDonald-Douglas DC-X and Blue Origin New Shepard are examples and NASA funded various prototypes. Aerobreaking is not the only reasonable option.

      --
      Why is Snark Required?
    4. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exactly what I was thinking.

    5. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Sure, you can do it, but if you rely on your rocket engines entirely to decelerate (as the video clearly shows), you would need roughly double the fuel.

      Agreed, but the real question is what are they replacing the expended fuel with? I mean, so that the landing mass is roughly the same as the launch mass. Because that's the only way you would need roughly double the fuel.

      On a more serious note, they've already been landing boosters this way. In Earth gravity. Furthermore, how the fuck are your parachutes going to help land on a planet with little-to-no atmosphere?

      You play KSP, so it's totally reasonable to expect that you know better than an entire company full of rocket scientists.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    6. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by iris-n · · Score: 2

      Parachutes are shit for precision landing. But the reason they can get away with using mostly rocket power to land is that the first stage is mostly empty by that time, and rather light. So a little bit of firing is enough to brake it completely, requiring little fuel. In fact, the first stage is so light that they only use one of the nine engines to propulsively land it.

      --
      entropy happens
    7. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Aerobreaking...bad.

      Aerobraking...good.

      (Posting AC due to mods.)

    8. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by Prien715 · · Score: 1

      you build a booster stage that is robust enough to return with only aerobreaking, it is going to weigh more and be more complex. You pay for that extra weight for every launch.

      On the contrary. The heaviest part of the booster IS the fuel so using less of it (essentially zero by aerobraking) drops the cost of the entire system.

      --
      -- Political fascism requires a Fuhrer.
    9. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by legRoom · · Score: 2

      if you rely on your rocket engines entirely to decelerate (as the video clearly shows), you would need roughly double the fuel

      No, it can be done with much less than double the fuel. The trick is that the boost-back and landing burns take place after the second stage and payload have separated from the booster. Thus, because the booster is much lighter on the way down than it was on the way up, it can decelerate itself with relatively little fuel. (On a two-stage rocket, the empty first stage typically weighs significantly less than the fully-fuelled second stage and payload.)

      SpaceX has already demonstrated this experimentally with the Falcon 9: the payload penalty to orbit for reusing the first stage is only about 30%.

      rely on parachutes and air resistance

      The ITS surely takes advantage of air resistance to some extent. Having said that, while aerodynamic drag is an excellent way to decelerate small things, it becomes progressively less effective for larger objects due to the fascinating square-cube law.

      Air resistance scales linearly with the object's surface area, while the required deceleration force scales linearly with the object's mass. Surface area scales as the square of the object's linear dimension, while mass scales as the cube of the object's linear dimension. Thus, the mass grows faster than the air resistance.

      This is why an ant or a cockroach will land completely unharmed even if dropped from the top of the tallest building in the world, whereas a much larger human would die instantly on impact. It's also why small meteorites tend to burn up very high in the atmosphere, whereas large ones may retain enough speed and mass all the way to the ground to make a crater.

      yep, all the fire on the bottom of the shuttle, or a mercury capsule means that air resistance is actually slowing the spacecraft down

      The ITS first stage dwarfs the Mercury capsules. Even so, the Mercury capsules had to land in the ocean because their parachutes couldn't slow them down enough to land softly on land. That's very bad for reusability, because sea water is corrosive.

      The Space Shuttle Orbiter is much closer in size, but still only massed maybe 1/3rd as much. While it was able to slow itself via aerodynamic forces alone, giving that capability to such a large vessel was extremely expensive in a variety of ways. I won't side-track this post with a full explanation right now, but suffice it to say that the decision to make the Orbiter a giant winged vehicle was a major contributor to all fourteen crew deaths, and to the massive cost overruns.

      (There is a reason that neither NASA nor anyone else wants to build a new Space Shuttle - it was a failed design. Dream Chaser may look superficially similar, but it is much smaller and thereby avoids many problems.)

      For the ITS, specifically, a winged setup would have the additional problem that it could not return the booster directly to the launch site. Instead it would have to land on an extremely large runway somewhere down-range. Both the launch site and the landing site would need to be on the coast, since the booster is far too big to travel any other way, than by ship.

      And yes, I learned this playing Kerbal Space Program

      Kerbal Space Program is great. You have to really work at it to accurately model a system like this though - you need to use all the realism mods, build the system at full size, and use a competent auto-pilot for the landing burn. (Manual landings are difficult and waste a lot of fuel compared to a computerized "suicide burn".)

      Do it right, and you'll find that Elon's scheme actually works pretty well.

    10. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The point is, your not going to do any aerobreaking if you don't have an atmosphere to slow down against. That was also a consideration (the moon, demos, phobos, ceres, euruopa, ect). More than half of the other inner solar system destinations don't have any atmosphere or enough of one to to any substantial braking for a quick deceleration).

    11. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      SpaceX uses only one kind of fuel for all stages.

      Not anymore. The Merlin uses RP-1/LOX, while the Raptor uses methane/LOX.

    12. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes no sense by legRoom · · Score: 1

      And yes, I learned this playing Kerbal Space Program

      Kerbal Space Program is great. You have to really work at it to accurately model a system like this though - you need to use all the realism mods, build the system at full size, and use a competent auto-pilot for the landing burn. (Manual landings are difficult and waste a lot of fuel compared to a computerized "suicide burn".)

      Someone (not me) has now done this and posted the results on YouTube. Only about ten percent of the first stage's fuel was needed for boost-back and landing.

  13. That's Heavy by A10Mechanic · · Score: 2

    Heavy lift for the Saturn V was: ~90,000 lbs of end-payload, for a trip to the moon. This new thing is 200,000 lbs or payload, so more than twice the heavy lift capacity of the biggest rocket the U.S. ever made, unless they break it up into smaller component launches. I want to be there when that rocket launches, albeit at a safe distance! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    1. Re:That's Heavy by balbeir · · Score: 1

      Well considering the Saturn V was from about half a century ago, doing 2x of payload should be part our technical capabilities now (or soon).

    2. Re:That's Heavy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How old is the Saturn V design again.....? We'd have better rockets if congresspeople didn't use it as a way to get money to certain states, or force the parts to be made 1/50th of the way in each state.

    3. Re:That's Heavy by werepants · · Score: 1

      Seriously - apparently there will be some serious seismic activity created by one of these launches, and if there's a "rapid unplanned disassembly" on the launch pad, the destructiveness will rival that of a smallish nuke.

    4. Re:That's Heavy by werepants · · Score: 3, Informative

      You would think... but humans haven't gone beyond low-earth orbit since the Apollo program was cancelled. That was arguably the pinnacle of manned space capability and we still haven't matched it with modern systems.

    5. Re:That's Heavy by legRoom · · Score: 1

      That was arguably the pinnacle of manned space capability and we still haven't matched it with modern systems.

      Space technology has advanced steadily since the Apollo era. The reason we haven't done anything as exciting as landing men on the Moon since then is simply because no one wants to pay for it. And why should they? It's billions of dollars spent travelling to places for no better reason, ultimately, than, "Because it's there."

      (Colonization doesn't count until it can be convincingly argued that the colonies could eventually become truly self-sustaining, or export something of comparable value to the cost of supporting them with supplies from Earth. We're not there yet; various relevant tech needs to be better developed and demonstrated on Earth before it makes sense to ship it to Mars.)

      The modern aerospace industry is far more capable than that of the Apollo era - it just lacks an economic incentive to demonstrate that clearly to the general public. Hopefully Musk has a real business plan.

    6. Re:That's Heavy by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Nobody was willing to do (or finance) actual useful R&D. The last major actually useful R&D effort pushing the boundaries in the US was the RS-25 in the late 1970s.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    7. Re:That's Heavy by brian.stinar · · Score: 1

      I was at the Lunar Lander challenge, for the X-Prize a few years ago.

      The problem with being at a "safe distance" is that it is so far away that you can barely see anything, except when the rocket is REALLY high up. We watched the entire thing on gigantic TV monitors, despite being "there." It's still a cool experience - sort of like a music concert, except for science, but don't think being there will give you a good view (at least not if you're a safe distance away!)

    8. Re:That's Heavy by werepants · · Score: 1

      Materials have gotten lighter and stronger, computers have gotten immeasurably better in every respect, manufacturing capabilities have improved - so we've made advancements in individual areas. But as an integrated system, it's a simple fact that the Apollo program produced the most powerful launch vehicle ever created.

      The modern aerospace industry has innovated in some areas, but in terms of launch vehicles we're still doing the same basic things as in the Apollo days - expendable rockets, throwing away hundreds of millions of dollars on every launch... If we're so much more advanced, why haven't costs come down? Why haven't capabilities increased? The state of the art didn't increase meaningfully (in production systems) until SpaceX and now Blue Origin came along.

    9. Re:That's Heavy by HuguesT · · Score: 1

      Why do you think that? Things do not improve simply because time passes.

      According to Wikipedia, the Rocketdyne-developed F-1 engine is the most powerful single-nozzle liquid-fueled rocket engine ever flown, and the Saturn V the largest rocket ever.

      The X-Space plan is very exciting but they have a lot of work cut out for them.

    10. Re:That's Heavy by legRoom · · Score: 2

      But as an integrated system, it's a simple fact that the Apollo program produced the most powerful launch vehicle ever created.

      You have a very narrow view of aerospace if you think its most important product is launch vehicles, or that the only design goal worth mentioning is raw power. The most important part of the "integrated system" is the payload, not the launch vehicle.

      The payload is the part that actually does something useful in its own right: relaying communications, taking pictures, etc. Launch vehicles exist only to help the payload get where it needs to be; unless its actually needed to get the job done, a big launcher is just a waste of resources that could have been spent on a better payload - or even doing something more useful on Earth.

      Currently the main economically viable space applications are communications relays and remote observation. Neither of these requires 100 ton satellites/probes, which is why building 100 ton launchers hasn't been a priority.

      Modern space communications systems are literally about a million times faster for the same mass. Modern imaging systems, RADARs, high precision clocks (for GPS), etc. are also much better than 1960s stuff.

      If we're so much more advanced, why haven't costs come down? ...until SpaceX and now Blue Origin came along.

      That's a false premise: costs did come down. Even the Delta IV heavy - widely regarded as badly overpriced compared to its contemporaries - is about 30% cheaper to launch on a per-ton basis than the Saturn V ever was. (Don't trivialize that 30% - imagine what a difference it would make in your life if your rent was reduced by 30%. Gains don't have to be exponential Moore's Law-style to be meaningful.)

      As for SpaceX... what they've done is quite amazing.

      Their internal technical capabilities aren't as far ahead of their competitors as the external results make it appear though: they're "standing on the shoulders of giants". NASA developed the the FASTRAC engine and the PICA heat shield in the late 1990s. 3D metal printing and carbon fibre composite manufacturing were approaching maturity around this time, as well.

      SpaceX was founded in 2002 and quickly adopted - and further developed - these cutting-edge technologies which originated with NASA, the established aerospace industry, the university system, etc. They didn't create them, but they had the ambition and the guts to adopt them more quickly than the traditional aerospace industry would otherwise have done. So, they didn't fundamentally put the industry on a different path in that respect - but they did majorly speed things up.

      Why haven't capabilities increased?

      Where SpaceX and Blue Origin do appear to fundamentally differ from the old guard, is in their belief it's time now to seriously invest in manned space colonization. That's why they're planning monstrously large launchers like the ITS. Manned vessels, unlike computerized satellites/probes, need to be much larger than anything launched today in order to be effective and efficient.

      The problem with that, is that currently the technology does not exist to build a self-sustaining colony anywhere but on Earth, even with cheap space launch. SpaceX has already basically said that they're not really working on that side of the problem. So, they're making a huge gamble by assuming that someone else will do it for them. It's very possible that it will all just fizzle out like the Apollo Program did.

    11. Re:That's Heavy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      p>The problem with being at a "safe distance" is that it is so far away

      Go watch a Russian launch then. "The flames normally go out to there, so you want to be further out to not get grilled..."

    12. Re:That's Heavy by werepants · · Score: 2

      You have a very narrow view of aerospace if you think its most important product is launch vehicles, or that the only design goal worth mentioning is raw power.

      Not at all, I'm well aware of the advancements in satellite technology because I work directly in that field (and, FWIW, 90's era processors are still considered state-of-the-art in some contexts) - but my original contention was this: "[Apollo] was arguably the pinnacle of manned space capability and we still haven't matched it with modern systems." It's irrefutably true - the only manned system that's even operational as of today (Soyuz) literally predates even the Apollo program.

      That's a false premise: costs did come down. Even the Delta IV heavy - widely regarded as badly overpriced compared to its contemporaries - is about 30% cheaper to launch on a per-ton basis than the Saturn V ever was.

      Sure, but Delta IV isn't man-rated, so it better be cheaper than Saturn V. And, even if it was, a 30% decrease really is a pittance, especially considering that the capability is much lower. What's more, the Delta IV is a commercial operation, while Saturn V was a no-expense-spared national prestige program - you would think it ought to be dramatically cheaper by comparison. Of course, it isn't fair to compare to computers, because Moore's Law growth is unprecedented in any industry and we've never seen that kind of growth anywhere else, but if we looked to airliners which are more comparable, this would be like having intercontinental flights in the 70's, and today we can only fly cross-country, but still have to pay 70% of the original price. Pretty tepid "advancement".

      As for SpaceX... what they've done is quite amazing.

      Their internal technical capabilities aren't as far ahead of their competitors as the external results make it appear though: they're "standing on the shoulders of giants".

      I totally agree. They haven't innovated technically as much as they've innovated with the economics of spaceflight. The development costs for their vehicles are peanuts. This might be because they've taken a page out of agile software development - start with a poorly optimized, bare minimum launcher (the original Merlin engine and Falcon 9 had pretty miserable performance compared to today) and iterate to get successively better. As well, in a sense they've done something "Apple-esque", in terms of taking existing hardware that isn't groundbreaking, but integrating it in a much more effective way than prior companies have done. And, they've had a very different motivation - in the short term for ULA or any of the entrenched launch providers, lowering costs means that you lose money, because the launch market is small enough and slow moving enough that it will take a while for demand to ramp up and for increased volume to make up for your lower per-launch cost. Which is why the launch industry has been more or less stagnant for 50 years. You need someone commercial, and who can look past the next 5-10 years of profits - we haven't gotten it until Musk and Bezos.

      The problem with that, is that currently the technology does not exist to build a self-sustaining colony anywhere but on Earth, even with cheap space launch.

      I think this is the classic "if you build it, they will come" scenario. You couldn't start a software company in 1970, and you can't start an orbital tourism company today. The hope is, cheap launch capability will bring these companies out of the woodwork, and it really ought to be a separate venture from launch, because ideally colonization hardware should be vehicle-agnostic. Personally, I think in the short term, orbital tourist stations could be a lot more lucrative than Mars - how many people would spend $20k for a 2-week space vacation in LEO, vs spending $200k for a multi-year (or one way) voyage to Mars? Either way, those prices are decades away, but I expect the order of magnitude difference between them will remain indefinitely, and I bet you there will always be more than 10x as many LEO travelers as Mars travelers.

    13. Re:That's Heavy by legRoom · · Score: 2

      my original contention was this: "[Apollo] was arguably the pinnacle of manned space capability and we still haven't matched it with modern systems." It's irrefutably true

      I think it could be argued that the International Space Station is both more advanced than Apollo, and more relevant to solving the hardest problems associated with colonization: keeping people alive, long-term. Nevertheless, I concede the point as you have narrowly defined it.

      but if we looked to airliners which are more comparable, this would be like having intercontinental flights in the 70's, and today we can only fly cross-country, but still have to pay 70% of the original price. Pretty tepid "advancement".

      The difference here is that there is a huge market for travelling between continents, because all of them (except Antarctica) are great places to live and work. There is no comparable market for flights to the Moon, because there's not much to do there except enjoy looking around and hope you don't die before it's time to go home.

      Judging an industry by how good of a "bridge to nowhere" it maintains is not really fair.

      I think this is the classic "if you build it, they will come" scenario...

      Perhaps. Musk's transport system has a lot of potential, but I think his impatience (driven by anxiety about his own mortality, I suspect) and laser focus on Mars may damage his cause in the long-term.

      If he really wants a self-sustaining, economically independent colony, it would be better to drive the technology forward until that is obviously viable. A colony that is always teetering on the edge of disaster, because it was established prematurely, adds little to the robustness of human civilization, but will still consume tremendous resources during the start-up phase - and maybe indefinitely afterwards, too.

      There are plenty of incremental steps that could be pursued to drive R&D and expand the industry, such as near-Earth space tourism (as you suggest), asteroid mining, space-based solar, and small-scale research and exploration colonies that aren't intended to be self-sufficient. All of these things would benefit greatly from a huge reusable rocket like the ITS, without the high probability of catastrophic, deadly, horrendously expensive failure that accompanies a premature large-scale colonization effort.

    14. Re:That's Heavy by werepants · · Score: 2

      There are plenty of incremental steps that could be pursued to drive R&D and expand the industry, such as near-Earth space tourism (as you suggest), asteroid mining, space-based solar, and small-scale research and exploration colonies that aren't intended to be self-sufficient. All of these things would benefit greatly from a huge reusable rocket like the ITS, without the high probability of catastrophic, deadly, horrendously expensive failure that accompanies a premature large-scale colonization effort.

      I tend to agree... if we have to find the "next Earth", then Mars is certainly the best candidate in the solar system, but I don't think there's any real requirement or capability for that kind of thing at the moment. Instead, just opening up a new economic frontier in space will probably be the real key to what Musk is after - moving humanity into the next phase of civilization. It might be that he even recognizes that (and the fact that this has been renamed the Interplanetary Transport System rather than the Mars Colonial Transporter suggests that he does) but is maintaining the vision of Mars because it provides the focus needed to hone the development effort. If he builds transportation infrastructure sufficient for a Mars colony, that same capability effectively unlocks the whole solar system to large-scale manned operations. Yet, it is still useful to focus on one specific mission to help sell the idea and cut out the cruft and feature creep along the way... and that way, nobody can call his system a "rocket to nowhere", a moniker that has plagued the entire SLS effort.

  14. Re:The Refueling Tanker makes sense by crow · · Score: 1

    Yes, it does make sense. They're already using the rocket engines to land. The trick is that they're landing empty, so the thrust required is tiny compared to the thrust required for launch.

  15. Failure isn't failure... if you learn from it. by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 5, Informative

    And that's different from NASA/Energia how?

    Space ex has a failure rate 10 times worse. The FAA needs to step in and force them to take safety seriously.

    Failing, as it turns out, is an effective way of trying new things and finding out what works. Painful, but very very effective.

    The best thing about SpaceX is that they aren't afraid of failure.

    The worst thing that could happen would be if the FAA steps in and no longer allows companies to fail. If you aren't allowed to fail, you're not allowed to innovate. The only way to take the chance of doing new things is by taking the risk of failure.

    Or, to use a quote: “Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly.”

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:Failure isn't failure... if you learn from it. by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Go home, Gary Church, you're drunk.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    2. Re:Failure isn't failure... if you learn from it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      this is well said

    3. Re:Failure isn't failure... if you learn from it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In the quote I believe you mean "bigly"

  16. Red to Green by KickedAbyss · · Score: 1

    I'm surprised no one else noticed or commented yet on the final images. Elon isn't just talking travel in this clip - not even just settling the planet - he implies subtly that we can bring water back to Mars and terraform it. Mars goes from the red planet, to Red and Green and Blue. Now that's ambition. But, should we expect anything else from an alien

    1. Re:Red to Green by legRoom · · Score: 1

      I'm surprised no one else noticed or commented yet on the final images.

      That's because it's just a CGI render, with no indication that SpaceX has any idea how to actually do such a thing from a technical perspective.

      Lots of people have speculated (and drawn pretty pictures) about terraforming Mars. However, serious scientific studies of the problem invariably show that it would be astronomically expensive (as in, beyond the combined capabilities of the entire Earth economy), take hundreds to thousands of years, and/or require fantastic technology that does not yet exist.

      I saw nothing in the video or the press conference to indicate that SpaceX has come up with a better plan; therefore I interpret the end of the video as a vague hope for the future: something which the proposed Martian colony may eventually achieve on their own, many generations from now.

    2. Re:Red to Green by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hope no-one is gullible enough to believe this. All your "space" pictures have been CGI. This seems entertaining to think about but is likely just a distraction to keep people misinformed.

  17. And, apparently... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...terraform the entire planet of Mars in about 7 years, according to the video.

    1. Re:And, apparently... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What in the video indicates terraforming Mars in 7 years? If you're suggesting the last few seconds of the clip (which doesn't have a time scale that I can see) Mars rotates at a rate roughly equivalent to that of Earth (A Martian day is 24 hours 39.5 minutes) which would make that clip about 8 days if being taken literally. Anyone with a middle school level of education could comprehend that it's a simplified promo, unless you also believe every car commercial that suggests you and your passengers are going to routinely break out into song, get huggs from polar bears, eyed by attractive women, or navigate extreme road hazards with the skill of an F1 driver.

  18. Elon Musk Ponzi Scheme Gets Bigger And Bigger by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It just will NOT work.

    Investors should bail out now.

  19. Re:Mars Global Warming by Steve1952 · · Score: 1

    Give mankind a few decades on Mars and we'll have Global Warming there too, we'll find a way even without Oil/Gas/Coal...

    Yeah, but on Mars, global warming is a good thing!

  20. Bringing home bacon by bugs2squash · · Score: 1

    So let's say I save up $200k for a ticket to Mars. How do I sustain myself when I get there ? become an "organic" potato farmer ? Plus the return trip seems to only involve returning the capsule for re-use, not a large payload of people or manufactured goods or raw materials. Mars needs an economy as well as an atmosphere.

    --
    Nullius in verba
    1. Re:Bringing home bacon by mschuyler · · Score: 1

      You'll be well-educated enough to get a job building the propellant resupply plant. Indeed, if you work it right, you'll get them to front for your ticket. $200K is not really much of a barrier anyway. Your real ticket will be in the skills you can offer,

      --
      How about a moderation of -1 pedantic.
    2. Re:Bringing home bacon by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure that transport costs will be prohibitive for MarsEarth shipping of just about anything that can also be found on Earth. Mars might need an economy, but sending raw materials or manufactured good back to Earth won't be the basis of that economy.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    3. Re:Bringing home bacon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At the prices they are talking of Precious metals like gold at $40,000/kg might be worth sending to earth, Plutonium, Uranium 235 too :). And there will always be some uber rich dickheads that will buy Mars made consumables for bragging rights (whiskey, honey, jam etc).

  21. Not a Solar Sail by zenasprime · · Score: 1

    Why hasn't anyone pointed that out yet? o.O

  22. 42 engines!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Surprised nobody commented on this yet. 42 engines! Not only is that obviously "the answer", but it has some issues.

    Let's say each engine is 99.9% reliable. That means the whole stage is .999^42 = about 96% reliable.. Sure you can maybe have enough thrust to recover from losing an engine or three but the trouble is engine failures on rockets tend to be catastrophic. They usually mean loss of the mission due to cascading damage and fires and so on. It's not redundancy if everything is so close together, you can ask aircraft mfgs who have learned that lesson the hard way when so called "redundant" lines both are severed by the same damage event leading to loss of a/c no matter what the failure models said.

    I'm sceptical. Guess they might not reuse it as much as they say they can.

    :wq

    1. Re:42 engines!! by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      You can't really make such assessments without a more comprehensive model. The engine-out capability depends even on such things as when the engines fail (later is better than earlier) so it's not something you can assess just by exponentiating one engine's reliability by its count.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    2. Re:42 engines!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Falcon 9s are designed for catastrophic engine failures (explosions). Each engine is surrounded by a kevlar jacket intended to dampen the explosion of the failing engine and protect the working ones. In fact it has happened on one flight, the rocket placed its primary payload into orbit without a problem and was only prevented from getting its secondary payload into orbit as well via some rather stringent primary payload criteria (99% stage assurance vs 95% in this case). Presumably any follow on rocket they created would also have this capability.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvTIh96otDw

    3. Re:42 engines!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You can't really make such assessments without a more comprehensive model.

      Fair enough... just that it feels like there's a lot of room for stuff to go wrong there which even the best models don't predict. It's not the things your models predict that bite you in the end. It's the things you don't expect, and the more complex the whole thing is, the more of that there's gonna be.

      Don't get me wrong, I WANT it to work well!

    4. Re:42 engines!! by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Yeah, it's true...the things that bite you are the things you don't anticipate. On the N-1, they only found in a test flight that shutting down six engines at once to limit the g-forces creates a hydraulic shock that ruptures the fuel lines. Well, that's too late to find out about something like that!

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
  23. No one thought we could land on the moon, either by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not until someone actually DID it.

    I figure it's vaporware. I'm about 99% certain it is. But I HOPE that it's not.

    And I hope they make a serious stab at this, even if it goes completely pear-shaped. Either we'll get people on Mars, or else we'll learn a way that didn't work, and that could lead us to the way that does. But one way or another, someone's going to have to break trail.

  24. Re:couldn't coexist with their English neighbors by istartedi · · Score: 1

    I know you're joking, but modern day colonists could haul a billion Bibles and not add any weight, thanks to modern storage. They also wouldn't need a printing press, for the same reason. OTOH, the printing press was used to jack the timbers and save the ship, so maybe they should have a lightweight jack on board, just in case. :)

    --
    For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?