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Renewables Overtake Coal As World's Largest Source of Power Capacity (ft.com)

The world's largest source of power capacity is now renewables, as roughly half a million solar panels were installed every single day last year. In addition, two wind turbines were erected every hour in countries such as China, according to the International Energy Agency. Financial Times reports (Editor's note: may be paywalled; alternate source): Although coal and other fossil fuels remain the largest source of electricity generation, many conventional power utilities and energy groups have been confounded by the speed at which renewables have grown and the rapid drop in costs for the technologies. Average global generation costs for new onshore wind farms fell by an estimated 30 percent between 2010 and 2015 while those for big solar panel plants fell by an even steeper two-thirds, an IEA report published on Tuesday showed. The Paris-based agency thinks costs are likely to fall even further over the next five years, by 15 percent on average for wind and by a quarter for solar power. It said an unprecedented 153 gigawatts of green electricity was installed last year, mostly wind and solar projects, which has more than the total power capacity in Canada. It was also more than the amount of conventional fossil fuel or nuclear power added in 2015, leading renewables to surpass coal's cumulative share of global power capacity -- though not electricity generation. A power plant's capacity is the maximum amount of electricity it can potentially produce. The amount of energy a plant actually generates varies according to how long it produces power over a period of time. Coal power plants supplied close to 39 percent of the world's power in 2015, while renewables, including old hydropower dams, accounted for 23 percent, IEA data show. But the agency expects renewables' share of power generation to rise to 28 percent by 2021, when it predicts they will supply the equivalent of all the electricity generated today in the U.S. and E.U. combined.

17 of 340 comments (clear)

  1. Renewables will never work by AK+Marc · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So, is it time to go back to all the nay sayers who have over the past 10 years asserted this point was impossible, and say "I told you so"? Or will they just continue to assert that the numbers are all lies, and only coal can make electricity?

    1. Re: Renewables will never work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "capacity"? You mean if the sun was shining on every single solar panel in the world then it hypothetically would generate as much electricity as coal actually produces. Seriously.

    2. Re:Renewables will never work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Maybe when renewables actually PRODUCE as much power as coal, that might be a better day to beat your chest.

    3. Re:Renewables will never work by Mashiki · · Score: 4, Insightful

      What you mean like here in Ontario? Where the windmills don't turn because the government pays them not to produce electricity? Where it accounts for under 2% of the total generation but responsible for 80% of the price increase in the last decade? From at peak of 0.07kWh to 0.18kWh. Where you can have 45+ days in a row without direct sunlight for solar. Yeah, they're doing a world of good for us. 70k people have had their electricity cut in the last 2 years, 700k customers are 4 months or more in arrears right now. The largest hydro company(Ontario Hydro) has 1.3m customers for example. FYI: Electricity is called hydro here, because our primary generation source used to be hydro-electric.

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    4. Re:Renewables will never work by GNious · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So'eh, progress is not something to be proud of ... gotcha

    5. Re:Renewables will never work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The majority of the world's population do live between +/- 24 degrees of the equator though, so solar is a good option for most people, most of the time.

      No single source of power is going to work for every possible use case: wind is inconsistent, gas pollutes, nuclear is expensive, solar is season- and location-dependent, hydro uses a lot of land, geothermal is rare, tidal is cyclic, coal is just horrific. The sensible thing to do is to use varied mix and invest in a decent grid so that when one area (e.g. southern solar) has excess power, it can shift/sell it to somewhere that needs it (e.g. northern winter) efficiently.

  2. Let me know when ... by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ... they overtake coal for amount generated per unit time.

    Renewables may have higher total peak, but coal plants have level output and can run 24/7, while sun is only about a third of the day and wind varies with the weather - at a power output proportional to the CUBE of the windspeed.

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    1. Re:Let me know when ... by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The power can be stored,

      The issue is not that the power can be stored.

      The issue is that power capacity comparisons overstate the total amount of energy you get out of the renewable generation equipment over the long haul because coal generation can run near capacity all the time and renewables (excluding water power) only a small part of the time.

      I'm quite supportive of renewable energy. (I'm a major participant on one of the renewable energy tech discussion boards, too.) But while it's very GOOD that renewable power has passed coal in power capacity, even with near-ideal load-levelling storage, it will take about another factor of three before it surpasses coal in providing usable energy to the loads.

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      Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
  3. Hydroelectric by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Do we know how much of the produced renewable energy is from hydroelectric stations (water dams)? I would suspect that it's still more than 70%.
    The article mentions mostly wind and solar power, perhaps they're the main growth factory.

    By the way, do they count burning wood as renewable energy? Renewable and green should not be confused.

  4. Re:Subsidies by hyades1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yes, they've been doing exactly that with oil for generations. The petrochemical corporations have even persuaded governments to fight wars on their behalf.

    The effect on the competition has been devastating.

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  5. Coal's not cheap by rsilvergun · · Score: 3, Insightful

    when you can't externalize the environmental costs.

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  6. Re:Subsidies by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Exactly.. We spent $2 trillion dollars and over 4,000 lives to protect Oil Company interests in the middle east.

    That's a huge subsidy that doesn't get counted as a subsidy.

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    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  7. Re:Subsidies by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That's a huge subsidy that doesn't get counted as a subsidy.

    Nor should it, because it was NOT a subsidy. The price of oil skyrocketed when war broke out in 2003, and remained high for more than a decade. Subsidies encourage over production. The Iraq war did the exact opposite. It depressed output, and pushed up prices.

    You obviously think the Iraq war was dumb, but it is also obvious that it was even dumber than you think. We paid more in excess oil prices than we spent on the war itself.

  8. Re:Subsidies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The whole point of the Iraq war and the wars against Syria and Libya, saber rattling against Russia and Iran. And the economic attacks on Venezuela. Is not to control the price of oil or the profit, but to control the 'flow' of oil. Which is the US deep state uses oil and capital to hold the rest of the free world hostage. Need oil? Yes you do. And you need to buy it in US dollars. Using heavy equipment and facilities underwritten in US dollars.

  9. Re:Subsidies by gweihir · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Yep. Except for the Oil-Execs, that benefited hugely from all this (and the destruction of the planet they are driving forward).

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  10. Re:Subsidies by guises · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Subsidies don't always encourage overproduction, that's too simplistic. Subsidies are about promoting something, certainly, but how the subsidy is crafted depends on what it's trying to encourage. There are farm subsidies for leaving your field fallow, for example. That's the opposite of overproduction.

    Also, when you say, "It depressed output, and pushed up prices." in the same sentence like that you're implying a causal relationship. You're implying that prices went up due to a supply and demand dynamic. This was not the case, prices went up by a great deal more than could be explained that way, generating huge profits for the oil companies.

  11. Did renewables replace any carbon based plants? by zerofoo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    How many carbon based power plants were taken off-line and replaced by renewable generation capacity last year?

    After much research, I haven't found a single instance of that happening - ever.

    Have renewables caused a moratorium on all new carbon based power plants? I don't think so. Asia (as of last year) was opening more than one coal power plant PER DAY:

    http://climatechangedispatch.c...

    Renewables have two mathematically inescapable problems:

    1. Renewable's land requirements per kWh are far too high.
    2. Renewable's storage requirements to meet base load demand simply do not exist - presumably because storage costs are also very high.

    I ran the numbers on a very small 2kW self-installed system - it would take me over 10 years in a best case scenario to recoup the costs at current utility rates.

    Until renewables become far cheaper, generate more kWh per square-foot, and solve the storage problem - they will never reduce or replace carbon based generation.