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Secret Service, DHS Scramble To Secure America's Election (yahoo.com)
Secret service agents rushed Donald Trump off a stage in Nevada Saturday night, CNN reports. "A scuffle could be seen breaking out in the audience, but it was not immediately clear what happened... Secret Service and police tactical units rushed in to detain a man [who] was then rushed by a throng of police officers, Secret Service agents and SWAT officers armed with assault rifles to a side room... A law enforcement official told CNN no weapon was discovered. The GOP nominee was apparently unharmed and returned to the stage minutes later to finish his speech." Meanwhile, an anonymous reader writes:
"All but two U.S. states have accepted help from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to probe and scan voter registration and election systems for vulnerabilities, a department official told Reuters." Ohio is relying on the National Guard's cyber protection unit, while Arizona says they've held discussions with the FBI, DHS and state-level agents on cyber security. But in addition, "U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia's electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin's command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News."
American officials believe Russian hacking efforts will continue through 2018, according to the Wall Street Journal. "By hacking and dumping emails, Russia is trying 'to denigrate the American electoral system, to make it look chaotic, make it look manipulable, make it look subject to intrusion, cheating and vulnerable so you can't trust it...to make us look no better than the Russian electoral system,'" said one senior White House official. Russia is also expected to extend their efforts toward elections in Europe.
American officials believe Russian hacking efforts will continue through 2018, according to the Wall Street Journal. "By hacking and dumping emails, Russia is trying 'to denigrate the American electoral system, to make it look chaotic, make it look manipulable, make it look subject to intrusion, cheating and vulnerable so you can't trust it...to make us look no better than the Russian electoral system,'" said one senior White House official. Russia is also expected to extend their efforts toward elections in Europe.
... that said "Republicans Against Trump", and then some unidentified asshole yelled "gun!" and the crowd went wild - hope they find the asshole that yelled "Fire in a crowded theater" just for the hell of it, and hang his ass.
"By hacking and dumping emails, Russia is trying 'to denigrate the American electoral system, to make it look chaotic, make it look manipulable, make it look subject to intrusion, cheating and vulnerable so you can't trust it...to make us look no better than the Russian electoral system,'" said one senior White House official.
"Hacking and dumping" emails is not the same as changing vote counts or forcing people to vote a certain way. The exposure of the content of emails was likely embarrassing to the Democratic Party and HRC, but it isn't election tampering.
Voter fraud is extremely rare, and the courts are enforcing federal law that makes sure people like you can't use it for cover to disenfranchise minorities.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
That's not the most direct path to victory for Trump.
Most polls show Trump with a small lead in Ohio, though still within the margin of error. It's more likely than not that Trump will win Ohio.
Georgia, Iowa, and Arizona are also considered toss-ups, but most polls show Trump with small leads in those states. For each of those states, it's more likely than not that Trump wins. They're within the margin of error, but Trump seems to be the likely winner in each.
Let's assume that Trump wins Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa. If he also carries Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada, he would have 269 electoral votes. This assumes, of course, that nothing crazy happens in Utah. In this instance, the election would go to the House of Representatives, with Trump being the likely winner.
Maine has four electoral votes, two going to the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. There's a larger margin of error in predicting individual districts, but there are indications that Trump is slightly ahead in the second congressional district of Maine. If he carries that along with each of the aforementioned states, that would give him 270 electoral votes.
Recent polls show Trump with a small lead in Nevada, though early voting there probably favors Clinton. Nonetheless, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight show Trump as having a small edge in Nevada.
RCP shows Trump as having a small edge in recent polls in New Hampshire. However, 538 projects Clinton as being slightly more likely to win there than Trump.
RCP shows Trump with a tiny edge in North Carolina, though well within the margin of error. He is also given justly slightly better than a 50-50 chance of winning there by 538.
RCP shows Clinton with a small lead in recent polls of North Carolina, though well within the margin of error. However, 538 projects Trump with slightly better than also 50-50 chance of winning there.
The most likely path to victory for Trump is to win Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and the second district of Maine. None of these would be particularly crazy, considering the current polls and projections.
Beyond that, Colorado may be the next best chance for Trump. Next on the list would be Pennsylvania. However, Clinton is projected to have slightly larger leads in those states. Michigan, New Mexico, and the two statewide electoral votes from Maine are still within the margin of error, but seem still less likely to go to Trump. If Michigan were to go to Trump, it's very possible that Wisconsin might follow, too. If the polls were really off that much, Virginia might also be in play. But all of this is getting quite unlikely.
It's more likely than not that Clinton wins, but I think 538's projections of roughly 65%-35% are about right. I don't think Trump must get Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes to win, and I'm not sure that's the most likely scenario. That said, if Trump loses Florida, he'd probably have to win Pennsylvania and Colorado to have a chance. He'd need Pennsylvania if he loses North Carolina. And Colorado would suffice if he loses either New Hampshire or Nevada. If he lost New Hampshire and Nevada but carried Colorado and the second district of Maine, it would probably end up a tie.