California's Bullet Train Hurtles Towards a Multibillion-Dollar Overrun (latimes.com)

schwit1 quotes the Los Angeles Times: California's bullet train could cost taxpayers 50% more than estimated — as much as $3.6 billion more. And that's just for the first 118 miles through the Central Valley, which was supposed to be the easiest part of the route between Los Angeles and San Francisco. A confidential Federal Railroad Administration risk analysis, obtained by the Times, projects that building bridges, viaducts, trenches and track from Merced to Shafter, just north of Bakersfield, could cost $9.5 billion to $10 billion, compared with the original budget of $6.4 billion.

The federal document outlines far-reaching management problems: significant delays in environmental planning, lags in processing invoices for federal grants and continuing failures to acquire needed property. The California High-Speed Rail Authority originally anticipated completing the Central Valley track by this year, but the federal risk analysis estimates that that won't happen until 2024, placing the project seven years behind schedule.
The whole project is expected to cost more than $68 billion.

Comments

Well, duh. Mass transportation is a slush fund.

[SensitiveMale]

It may work eventually, but it's a boondoggle for construction companies and mayors/governors.

Re:Well, duh. Mass transportation is a slush fund.

[ShanghaiBill]

It may work eventually, but it's a boondoggle for construction companies and mayors/governors.

Sure, but we should give credit where credit is due. The rule of thumb is that public works eventually cost three times their original budget. So if the overrun is only 50%, that is pretty good. But I am skeptical, since overruns generally follow the "salami algorithm" of publicising the overruns in small digestible slices. This is most likely just a slice, not the final figure.

Support High Speed Rail

[Kreuzfeld]

I am shocked that by LA Times writer Ralph Vartabedian's article on the supposed risk and overruns to California's ongoing high-speed rail (HSR) effort. Vartabedian is a known opponent of HSR whose every article drips with antagonism against this project, as a quick review of his past articles will clearly show. Anyone who reads the purported analysis (in fact a single Powerpoint file, taken out of context) will quickly see that the article's claims are not justified -- for example, a *possible* $3B overrun (really less, since this compares against obsolete estimates) does not equal a 50% budget problem for a project of this size. The entire state stands to benefit immensely from this project, which will connect BART, Caltrain, and VTA users in the North with Metro, Metrolink, and Amtrak users in the South --- and connect both to the isolated, ignored, economically-depressed Central Valley. Californians, and all who believe in progress, should embrace this transformative project and reject the uniformed mudslinging by the Vartabedians of the world.

Re:Welcome Back to DrudgeDot!

[gtall]

The Interstate System. NASA's trips to the planets. FDA keeping your food from killing you. SS keeping Grandma from moving in with you. NiH keeping research going on the diseases that might kill you. Need I continue or has your myopic stupidity completely clouded your vision?

Re:There will be no train

[AuMatar]

YOu need to get out of the US. Throughout Europe they use trains. They go 200 miles per hour. They're more comfortable than a plane (more leg room, dining cars, etc), cheaper to operate, and when you count the time it takes to get through security faster. Also far more likely to be on time. The only way planes win is if the trip is at least 800 miles so the speed difference beats the amount of time wasted at an airport. Anything else, take a train. Literally nobody in Europe or Asia prefers planes for medium distance travel.

Except in America of course where we're decades behind on rail technology and have trains limited to 50-60 mph. Its about time we catch up with the rest of the world.