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Report: PS4 Is Selling Twice As Well As Xbox One (arstechnica.com)

The latest numbers released by analysts suggest that the Sony PlayStation 4 is selling twice as many units worldwide as the Xbox One since both systems launched in late 2013. The data comes from a new SuperData report on the Nintendo Switch, which is backed up by Niko Partners analyst Daniel Ahmad. SuperData mentions an installed base of 26 million Xbox One units and 55 million PS4 units. Ars Technica reports: Ahmad's chart suggests that Microsoft may have sold slightly more than half of the 53.4 million PS4 units that Sony recently announced it had sold through January 1. Specific numbers aside, though, it's clear Microsoft has done little to close its console sales gap with Sony over the past year -- and may have actually lost ground in that time. The last time we did our own estimate of worldwide console sales, through the end of 2015, we showed the Xbox One with about 57 percent as many systems sold as the PS4 (21.49 million vs. 37.7 million). That lines up broadly with numbers leaked by EA at the time, which suggest the Xbox One had sold about 52.9 percent as well as the PS4 (19 million vs. 35.9 million). One year later, that ratio has dipped to just above or even a bit below 50 percent, according to these reports. The relative sales performance of the Xbox One and PS4 doesn't say anything direct about the health or quality of those platforms, of course. Microsoft doesn't seem to be in any danger of abandoning the Xbox One platform any time soon and has, in fact, recently committed to upgrading it via Project Scorpio later this year. The gap between PS4 and Xbox One sales becomes important only if it becomes so big that publishers start to consider the Xbox One market as a minor afterthought that can be safely ignored for everything but niche games.

17 of 136 comments (clear)

  1. so what? by dnorman · · Score: 2

    Both are viable platforms with lots of games and players. Who cares if one is twice the size of the other?

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    1. Re:so what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      Mostly investors, publishers and developers.

  2. Welcome to the Osborne Effect by SuperKendall · · Score: 2, Interesting

    For those not up on computer history, Osborne was a computer maker that announced a great new model coming in a year... so sales started tanking while people waited... which meant there was no model in a year (or maybe there was, my memory is fuzzy on that detail).

    I think MS was really dumb to try and compete with the PS4 Pro by saying they would have improved hardware next year. All they had to do was literally nothing, the PS4 Pro is not big enough of a bump that it would have effected XBox sales...

    Although really it seems like XBox sales have been lagging even before the recent hardware upgrade was announced.

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    1. Re:Welcome to the Osborne Effect by gman003 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Good theory, but I think you're wrong. That's not what's hurting Microsoft - Sony did the same thing, with rumors of the "Neo" appearing shortly after the console itself launched. And yet the PS4 still sold quite well from day one.

      What hurt the Xb1 is that it's demonstrably weaker than the PS4, but cost significantly more at launch ($500 compared to $400). Most games are available on both, so the natural inclination is to go with the cheaper and more powerful console. With a wide library of shared games, there's lots of direct comparisons to make, and even before they launched, it was easy to tell the PS4 would be more powerful. That gave the PS4 a very strong advantage during the first year or two.

      Even now, they only have price-parity, with both having an entry price around $250-$300. But more people already have a PS4, making that the more attractive option both for multiplayer gaming (if all your friends are on PS4, you'd want one too) and for the larger percentage of third-party exclusive titles (it's nowhere near as big a deal as it once was, since porting is so easy, but there's still some studios that are deciding to skip the Xb1 because the audience is smaller). And it seems to me (as a non-Xb1, non-PS4 gamer) that Sony's shoveling the money from their console sales into more first-party games, giving it a still stronger library, which is ultimately what every gamer cares about.

      Microsoft doesn't have a lot of options for coming back from this, just as the PS3 struggled to come back from the Xb360's early lead and the XbC never came close to the PS2. They could make the Scorpio be *substantially* more powerful than the PS4 Pro, making it more future-proof and maybe able to handle 4K/VR better. They could slash the price, and hope to catch up that way, but that's a risky move. They could pin it on VR or AR, but that's riskier still. They could double-down on their cross-play with PC bets - make every single Xb1 game PC-compatible and bundle a PC version, which would widen their library (although it would cannibalize Scorpio somewhat). Or they could go on a spending spree and buy up every developer they can, and kill off the PS4's third-party support - Sony is no Nintendo, they can't survive on first-party games alone (even Nintendo might not do so much longer).

  3. Scorpio makes no sense by HalAtWork · · Score: 2

    Scorpio, an upgraded Xbox One, is said to have about 3x the power of the PS4, 1.5x the power of the PS4 Pro. And 5x the power of the Xbox One, which it has to be compatible with. Scorpio software must run adequately on the Xbox One despite the huge power gap.
    This is a premium system with a rumored high price tag, launching about 2 years before the expected next generation of consoles debuts.

    Having to compete with the installed base of PS4 and Xbox One so late in the game, developer focus is expected to reflect this, leading to only minor updates to games such as higher resolution, framerate, and anti aliasing. Not expected are more complex models, more detailed worlds, significant shader and texture differences, increased complexity in physics models, or AI differences (especially since Scorpio gamers are expected to match with Xbox One gamers online, and the games are supposed to remain basically the same, only superficially different).

    Bottom line is they expect knowledgable gamers (casuals won't care about this) to pay a high price for minor cosmetic differences not long before newer powerful machines come out that aren't resterained by compatibility with older less powerful systems. It doesn't seem like this will do much to bolster the Xbox brand, and may even make adopters upset. Probably only Microsoft's own titles will bother to put the resources behind making any significant improvements to games, especially considering how much games already cost, and how much testing will have to be done specifically for a significantly different version, and that's only 2-3 games a year?

    It does not seem like Scorpio will help MS....

  4. Re:Games though? by exomondo · · Score: 4, Informative

    They sell twice as many consoles but have about 1/5 the amount of games as Xbox. This is what happens when people get too dependent on DirectX when OpenGL is soooo much better and available to everyone.

    But the Playstation doesn't use OpenGL anyway, one advantage of those high level APIs is they allow abstraction of a vast range of hardware with a cost of overhead for doing so. The Playstation does not have a range of graphics hardware so suffering that overhead would be pointless, they use their own low-level graphics API.

  5. Re:Scorpio by HalAtWork · · Score: 2

    Scorpio software will be hamstrung by mandatory compatibility with Xbox One hardware. http://www.gamespot.com/articl...

    Scorpio's higher price will slow adoption, developers will still focus on the much larger install base of PS4 and Xbox One onwers, meaning developer resources won't be put into significant enhancements for Scorpio compatible games. http://www.gamespot.com/articl...

    Scorpio's hardware will be outclassed 2 years later when the PS5 is released. http://www.gamezone.com/news/a...

    It will be an expensive flop, not a good way to start a new generation.

  6. Largest yet deployment of FreeBSD? by Brian+Feldman · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I am quite curious if Sony is now the leading manufacturer of consumer electronics powered by FreeBSD. The only other manufacturer that I think may be in the running would be Panasonic, with FreeBSD as the basis for their televisions.

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  7. Re:Almost identical architectures by gravewax · · Score: 2

    Switch is competing for game developers with the Xbox and PS, Nintendo has struggled massively with 3rd party support previously and it doesn't look like that will change much. There architecture is massively different and that makes them much more expensive to develop for. Xbox and PS are similar with a combined userbase of more than 80 million. Switch isn't destined for disaster but it has a lot of work ahead to be successful as apart from the gimmicky Wii Nintendo have been in a userbase slide for a long time now.

  8. Re:Games though? by exomondo · · Score: 2

    But the Playstation does have a range of hardware with the release of the PS Pro.

    Yes, a range of 2, just like the XBox One and Project Scorpio. And it is forward compatible meaning that you can develop for the PS4 and it works just as good on the PS4 Pro, you only need to put in additional effort if you want create a unique experience on the PS4 Pro.

    MS will have the advantage here as the DirectX API originating from the PC was designed from the start to easily develop for a range of hardware. It will be significantly easier for developers to take advantage of the extra power in Project Scorpio then it is for the PS Pro

    Well given the assumption that Project Scorpio will be backwards compatible with the XBox One what is a specific example of something that will be so much easier to do with DirectX on Project Scorpio to create a unique experience that will be difficult to do on the PS4 Pro with PSGL?

  9. It was a bad start... by Grim+Beefer · · Score: 2

    Microsoft unrolled a plan that put major roadblocks up to trading or selling used games. Consumers told them to go fuck themselves. ...fast forward...

    Sales are 2 to 1, in favor of the company that didn't try to pull this blatantly anti-consumerist bullshit, and rightfully so. Apparently, plenty of idiots were swayed by their last minute reversals.

  10. Re:Almost identical architectures by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

    Everyone but everyone is developing for ARM right now

    AAA titles are not developed for ARM. I cannot think of any game with more than $10MM in dev. costs that was for an ARM platform.

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  11. Re:Almost identical architectures by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

    The issue isn't "studio has ARM experience", its "how many hours does it take to port from the initial configuration to ARM" Because a AAA product will be designed first for Xbox/PS4/Computers.

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  12. Re:Games though? by ilguido · · Score: 2

    They [...] have about 1/5 the amount of games as Xbox

    It's the other way around, a lot of indie and not so indie titles (mainly Japanese stuff, but also games like Tropico 5) are out on PS4, but not on Xbone.

  13. Re:Almost identical architectures by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

    It's not circular logic - ports of AAA products won't be designed for ARM because the current AAA products aren't designed for ARM. New AAA products won't be designed for ARM, because ARM doesn't have a history of AAA products that you can point to to demonstrate to the money people that AAA titles are worth it on ARM

    a ton of major gaming products designed for ARM - the DS, 3DS, and PS Vita are all ARM based.

    Handhelds. Not AAA domain.

    Most major gaming engines support both: Unreal, Gamebryo, Blitztech, CryEngine, etc

    You really overestimate the "write once, run everywhere" nature of game engines.

    ut of every generation of consoles to date, this seems like the one for which porting will be the easiest - support for porting between ARM and x86 is certainly at a much more mature state than porting between PowerPC (Xbox 360) and Cell (PS3), for example.

    It will be the easiest... because all AAA titles will be ported from XBox (x86) to PS4 (x86) to PC (x86). All indie games will be published across all platforms that they can push to.

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  14. Re: Games though? by Shepanator · · Score: 2

    The ps4 pro has the exact same Cpu as the ps4 just clocked considerably higher, and is has the exact same gpu too, just with twice as many compute units and again clocked higher. The hardware is very closely related, optimisations on one can directly carry over to the other. Also ps4 supports directx if devs choose to go that way.

  15. No surprise. The XBone launch was a disaster. by Qbertino · · Score: 2

    The XBone launch was a disaster. They had to backpedal on just about any announcement made, having sold countless lock-ins as "features", type A Microsoft style. It's only for about a year now that people can trust the XBone to be reasonably fair to the consumer in most areas. And this is the stage of a console lifetime were those interested will go and ask around which console was better marketshare and is likely to have more people playing on- and offline. Hence even potential XBone buyers are craning their necks for the PS4s offerings.

    I own the last iteration of the Xbox 360 and a stack of games, most of which would run on the XBone, and even I am reluctant of the XBone, due to the lock-in and lack of convenience in this generations consoles.

    Consoles are too much of an online service extension and not really that convenient anymore these days. Pop in a disk, run a game used to be. Now it's download the update of Mafia 3 for 4 days flat until you can actually play. People who have no problem with that get a PC. XBones+Kinect "allways-on" non-sense and similar stuff was just the straw that broke the camels back, vis-a-vis the (slightly) less invasive and pretentious Sony and their PS4.

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