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Seagate Says 16TB Hard Drive To Hit Market Within 18 Months (techspot.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: If you haven't shopped around for hard drives in a while, you may be surprised at what's out there. The largest 3.5-inch desktop hard drives currently available from Seagate, for example, offer a whopping 10TB of capacity for less than $500. In the event that 10TB isn't quite enough storage and a multi-drive setup isn't ideal, you'll be happy to hear that Seagate over the next 18 months plans to ship 14TB and 16TB drives. A 12TB HDD based on helium technology is currently undergoing testing and according to CEO Stephen Luczo, initial feedback is positive. Most enthusiasts and even some PC manufacturers are now using solid state drives as their primary drive due to the fact that they're much faster and more power-efficient. What's more, because they have no moving parts, SSDs generate no noise and are much more durable.

37 of 232 comments (clear)

  1. Great! by TWX · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now I can lose even more data when a single disk crashes!

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    Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    1. Re:Great! by sims+2 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      How long will it take to rebuild a raid array with discs that size? Even with only raid 1 I'd think the times would be horrendous.

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    2. Re:Great! by sims+2 · · Score: 3, Funny

      disks*

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    3. Re: Great! by silas_moeckel · · Score: 3, Informative

      For these large drives you really want something like snap raid for their use cases. Large media stores backups and other bulky and rarely changing datasets are perfect for it. Not to mention that since data on any single drive is coherent you can loose more than parity can correct and still only lose the files with errors blocks or the content of that one drive were it to completely fail.

      Right now using 8tb drives as it's the best price per gb.

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    4. Re:Great! by freak0fnature · · Score: 2

      True, the Barracuda Pro 10TB drive is about 80MB/s faster than the 8TB archive drive, so likely it would also take roughly 24 hours to fill.

    5. Re:Great! by ctilsie242 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      On SATA? Days to weeks would be my guess. With drives this size, RAID-6 isn't even enough. It really needs triple parity, especially with drive arrays that contain 8-10 drives, or with 12+, quad parity.

      I'd like to see drive makers focus on reliability. Aerial density is quite high these days. Why not build in two different drive heads that can work in an active/active configuration (some drives about a decade ago had this ability), more ECC, bit-rot resistance, and more resistance to shock and vibration, as well as the other causes of data loss. Perhaps larger bad sector replacement tables as well.

      Maybe even go for speciality drives. One drive type would be dedicated to long term archive storage (perhaps as a WORM format with UDF as a filesystem). Another drive type would improve on the SSHD concept, with 256-512GB of SSD, and a good amount of HDD, so shingled writes are less of a performance bottleneck. Still another drive type would have 2-4 different heads, SSD, and be designed for fast, sequential I/O.

      Maybe add a new form factor. For example, a drive form factor that has a shock-resistant case so the drives can be used in lieu of a LTO tape, and supports hardware AES encryption, as well as a command to check the entire volume for bit rot and fix it, or at least tell that the volume has bad data on it.

    6. Re: Great! by TWX · · Score: 2

      Single parity can also lead to rebuild failures if there are undetected faults on the remaining disk(s). That's one of the principle problems with storage now as the amount of disk usage has grown so much. The chances of any given failure is much greater, and the steps taken to mitigate such failures in advance are subjected to their own potential for some kinds of failure too. It inevitably becomes expensive and labor-intensive to continue to monitor for these kinds of faults and to correct them.

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      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    7. Re:Great! by Solandri · · Score: 4, Informative

      The 10TB drives benchmark at around 240 MB/s on their outer track. Figure a 16 TB drive with 1.6x the areal density will be about 25% faster, or 300 MB/s. That's the speed of the outer track. The inner track is half that, or 150 MB/s. And the circumference is proportional to the radius, so the integral between these two speeds (taking into account more data being stored on outer tracks) yields an average speed 1/3 of the way from 300 to 150 MB/s, or 250 MB/s.

      So a straight sector-by-sector (sequential) copy of 16 TB drive to another 16 TB drive would take 16000 GB / 250 MB/s = 64000 seconds, or just under 18 hours.

    8. Re:Great! by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'd like to see drive makers focus on reliability.

      They do. HDD reliability has been going up for a long time. Some brands and models are much more reliable than others. Google, Backblaze, and others have published longitudinal data about that. The MTBF printed on the packaging means absolutely nothing. If you care about reliability, then check reliability data, and stick to the "one-back" rule and don't buy bleeding edge hardware.

      Why not build in two different drive heads that can work in an active/active configuration

      Because customers that need high speed non-consecutive I/O have mostly moved to SSD.

      The only reason to use HDDs is because they are cheap. So anything that adds to the cost, just pushes more customers to SSDs.

    9. Re: Great! by Anne+Thwacks · · Score: 2

      Or you could use tape. You can recover what you want, and its cheap.

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    10. Re:Great! by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

      Operate 1000 drives for 100 hours and count the failures and do the math and you get MTBF!.

      No! That is NOT how MTBF is calculated. Here is how it is calculated: Engineering designs a HDD. Manufacturing builds it. Then the marketing department decides on what MTBF to print on the box. They want three price points: good, better, best. But it is not cost effective to design and manufacture three different drives, so they actually only design one, and the drives sold at each price point are identical except for the MTBF printed on the box, and the warranty.

      Longitudinal data has repeatedly shown that "enterprise" drives have no technical or reliability advantage over consumer HDDs, and the extended warranty is never worth what you pay for it. The MTBF printed on the box has no correlation whatsoever with the actual reliability of the drive.

    11. Re: Great! by amorsen · · Score: 3, Informative

      Please provide a link where I can buy a cheap 16TB tape drive. Even an LTO-7 is too small, so you have to play tape jockey, and the tapes cost about the same per TB as the disks. And that is after you find the extortionate amount for the drive.

      Tape possibly makes sense if you can afford an autoloader. HP has a LTO-6 autoloader for $4,239.99 that will do 20TB really (50TB fake). It will, however, only backup/restore 560GB per hour. Let us hope you have a slowly changing dataset and incremental backups are your thing...

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  2. /. Editor: Crappy Summary by mykepredko · · Score: 2

    Why are the two ending sentences there on SSDs?

    It made the summary confusing and off point.

  3. how much porn is that? by known_coward_69 · · Score: 2

    and will it be enough for the digital hoarders out there?

    1. Re:how much porn is that? by mykepredko · · Score: 3, Funny

      11Mpussy if you use MKS units. Slightly less if you use imperial.

    2. Re:how much porn is that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      For the less technical inclined, that is about 350 MWanks.

  4. Too expensive... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 2

    I typically replace my home file server hard drives every five years or so. More out of necessity because the hard drives start failing like dominos. I buy whatever hard drives I can get for $50 each. Last year I replaced Seagate 320GB hard drives with Western Digital Red 1TB hard drives. Maybe four years from now I'll get 16TB hard drives — or 1TB+ SSDs — for $50 each.

  5. Re:And you still can't back it up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Buy 2

  6. Re:What are the use cases for these drives? by religionofpeas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    a 16TB drive means that there is more of your data to lose

    In most cases, if you can fill a 16 TB disk, that data isn't actually yours.

  7. Re:Sigh by PRMan · · Score: 2

    I had a 286 with a 20...

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    Peter predicted that you would "deliberately forget" creation 2000 years ago...
  8. Re:Still using by tuffy · · Score: 4, Informative

    Spinning drives are still the way to go for bulk storage because the cost-per-gigabyte remains far, far cheaper than SSD and will seemingly remain so for the near future.

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    Ita erat quando hic adveni.

  9. Re:And you still can't back it up by religionofpeas · · Score: 5, Funny

    I just divide it into two equal partitions, and make copies of everything.

  10. Bake your SSD in an oven by emil · · Score: 2

    Strange that the discrete 800 degree heating units haven't been integrated AFAIK. However, 250 degrees in an oven for a day fixes most of them.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-20579077

    Heat has long been known to help heal degraded materials in old flash memory. But because the heat healing process meant baking the memory chip in an oven at 250C for hours, few saw it as a practical solution... Briefly heating those locations to about 800C returned damaged memory locations to full working order.

  11. Makes No Sense by Phics · · Score: 2

    Most of the comments so far seem to be about 16TB being a bit on the ridiculous side for PCs and even small servers, etc. What these are exciting for aren't RAID or traditional PC's but for high density storage for Big Data, which typically doesn't use RAID, and generally only looks at SSDs as a "hot tier" solution. 16TB spindles sound great to me, but I'd never stick one in my home PC.

    --
    There are two types of people in the world; those who believe there are two types of people, and those who don't.
  12. Slightly off-topic: I want "WORM SSDs" for backup by davidwr · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I'd love to see someone come out with a cheap, trivial-to-use "WORM* USB stick" along with "plug and play" backup software.

    Such backups would be impervious to being over-written by ransomware. If using them became commonplace, it would cripple that industry.

    Such media could also be used for security systems or any other kind of data-logging system: Record everything to write-once media (along with a copy of recent data to a cached journal, so changing media doesn't cause interruptions).

    There is a good business case for this: It provides a nice "give away the flashlight, sell the batteries" profit center for vendors: People would need to replace the USB sticks when they filled up. The key is that it will have to be no more expensive than ordinary USB sticks of the same capacity.

    Before you mention "data retention/deletion policies" I'm envisioning this for home users and some types small businesses, not large businesses or those subject to government-driven data-deletion policies.

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    * By "WORM" I mean the actual hardware/firmware enforces the write-once aspect, not just a USB stick with an OS-level device driver that makes it "write once." This should actually be cheaper to manufacture than typical USB sticks since you would not need to provide "erase" circuitry nor would you need to have wear-leveling logic in the device's firmware.

    --
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  13. Re:And you still can't back it up by networkBoy · · Score: 2

    Where are you going to put that kind of data, [...] Another drive? Well, unless you buy at least three of these then that will get expensive fast, requiring multiple older drives per one of these.

    Well, My use case makes this what is likely to happen.
    I'll drop one of these in the system and it will act as the WORM drive for bulk data.
    As the data is created it is written to smaller/faster disks (still spinning rust, whatever 2.5" is cheapest/gig, or even previously used drives that have been tested clean). Once a dataset is complete it will be written to the WORM drive, once the smaller disk is full it is pulled from the system, put on the shelf and a new blank put in in it's place. Instant offline backups.

    There is an SSD who's entire existence is dedicated to maintaining the table of datasets -> offline disk # & Hash of dataset for bitrot checks. It's an old 40 gig Intel disk.

    I've found that as particularly larger disks come out I migrate the WORM to a new larger WORM and now I have the old WORM + initial creating disks all available as backups. It's a system that I've been using for about 6 years now without any issue (and with a couple disk failures and bit-rot incidents to validate my system).
    -nB

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  14. Re:Now it's helium-filled drives. by religionofpeas · · Score: 2

    Probably never. Hydrogen is reactive and will also migrate easily into other materials.

  15. Re:Slightly off-topic: I want "WORM SSDs" for back by networkBoy · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This should actually be cheaper to manufacture than typical USB sticks since you would not need to provide "erase" circuitry nor would you need to have wear-leveling logic in the device's firmware.

    Former Flash validation engineer here...
    Sadly not the case. The erase circuitry will still be needed if only so you can adequately run test patterns on the parts. Have to return the device to 0xFF's after testing so your customers can use it.

    That said, there is the ability to disable erase in the field by setting a bit in the FACS array as the last step of testing.

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  16. Re:Still using by ShooterNeo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Actually, deal prices for HDDs have yet to drop below ~$30 a terrabyte. This is 2010 era pre-flood/pre-consolidation prices. I haven't seen a price for a new drive from a quality brand dip below that.

    While I've seen SSDs hit $200/terrabyte. So the price delta is 6-10x at this point. It's rapidly shrinking.

  17. Re:What are the use cases for these drives? by Solandri · · Score: 2

    I just upgraded our building's 1080p security camera system storage from 4TB to 16TB (2x8TB). With 8 cameras recording at 6 fps, half of them on motion detection all the time, the others half the time, 4TB held about 35 days of video. We kept missing important footage due to the motion detection not triggering in time or not at all. I tried reducing the h.264 codec quality, but small details like license plate numbers started to become unreadable. 16TB should let us store 45+ days of always-on footage. Maybe even increase the framerate (not that we need smoother video, but more frames means more chances to get a legible still frame grab of a crucial license plate).

    This is just 8 cameras. The amount of video storage a place like a shopping mall needs must be mind boggling.

  18. Re:What are the use cases for these drives? by spire3661 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Oh fuck off. With 360 video becoming a thing, we are going to need 16k cameras to capture reality in decent fidelity. My personal raw 4k footage already vastly exceeds the 2 TB of backup media content i maintain.

    I store my physical CDs as straight up .wavs at this point. My home surveillance package could fill a 16 TB quickly, even quicker if i upgrade to higher resolution cameras.....You lack imagination.

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    Good-bye
  19. Re:Slightly off-topic: I want "WORM SSDs" for back by davidwr · · Score: 2

    That said, there is the ability to disable erase in the field by setting a bit in the FACS array as the last step of testing.

    For all practical purposes, is this an irreversible step?

    If not, I would prefer some other method, such as cutting a trace or burning out a fuse so that the drive was guaranteed to be "write once, erase/delete never."

    For "forensic" purposes, "guaranteed non-erasure" is a hard requirement.

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    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
  20. Re: What are the use cases for these drives? by jedidiah · · Score: 2

    It's not a big deal if you don't do it all at once. It's like using iTunes or Netflix but without the network or the problem of things "going away".

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    A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
  21. Use ECC RAM with ZFS! by h4ck7h3p14n37 · · Score: 2

    Install ZFS on your Linux box.

    If you're going to do this for anything other than experimental purposes, be sure you're using ECC RAM. You probably aren't and your current board most likely doesn't support it, so you'll need to get a new motherboard, possibly a new CPU and new RAM.

    ZFS does something no other filesystem you’ll have available to you does: it checksums your data, and it checksums the metadata used by ZFS, and it checksums the checksums. If your data is corrupted in memory before it is written, ZFS will happily write (and checksum) the corrupted data. Additionally, ZFS has no pre-mount consistency checker or tool that can repair filesystem damage. [...] If a non-ECC memory module goes haywire, it can cause irreparable damage to your ZFS pool that can cause complete loss of the storage.

    A Complete Guide to FreeNAS Hardware Design, Part I: Purpose and Best Practices

  22. Re:Now it's helium-filled drives. by garryknight · · Score: 5, Funny

    My friends speak quite highly of helium.

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    Garry Knight
  23. Re:Slightly off-topic: I want "WORM SSDs" for back by erice · · Score: 2

    I'd love to see someone come out with a cheap, trivial-to-use "WORM* USB stick" along with "plug and play" backup software.

    You may be waiting a while. Flash isn't cheap enough and it has data retention problems. Phase change memories (of which 3D Crosspoint seem to be a variant) also have difficulties with long term retention. If you don't need it to be a USB stick, WORM behaviour is a commonly available in optical storage media, including Blu-Ray.

  24. Re:Still using by PsychoSlashDot · · Score: 2

    You realize that spinning disks that size are "archive" only usage. Not actual usage. By that measure, tape is really cheap. There is a reason why you hardly see that any longer.

    Typically "archive" hard drives mean that they have relatively poor performance, not that that they're bad. For instance, if you're looking to put together a NAS to store a bunch of media like TV shows or movies, they're just fine. You're going write infrequent changes, mostly when you're adding new content, and you're going to read sequential streams, both of which archival drives are just fine for. That's actual usage. They are not intended for, say, write once, then store in a closet offline for years. They're not like "archival" quality optical media, which is intended to not decompose for a longer time than non-archival media.

    Just keep your high IOPS activities like databases off them and they're an excellent tool.

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