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Microsoft Reports New Subscribers For Office 365 Plunged 62% (itworld.com)

An anonymous reader writes: Microsoft is having trouble selling $7-a-month subscriptions to Office 365. In the last three months of 2016, Microsoft added just 900,000 new subscriptions -- and throughout all of 2016, subscriptions increased by just 4.3 million. In fact, a chart at IT World shows that new subscriptions actually peaked in a year ago, with a steady decline in new subscribers ever since. "In each of the last three quarters, Office 365 grew by about 900,000 subscribers, the smallest quarterly increase since early 2014," they write. "Prior to the nine-month stretch of 2016, subscribers were accumulating at rates two to three times larger per quarter."
This explains why Microsoft announced 97 new markets for the software nine weeks ago. So far after four years, Microsoft's found just 25 million subscribers for Office 365 -- and it's not clear how many of those came from their $100 five-user packages. (Although those figures suggest that Office 365 subscriptions are still earning Microsoft at least half a billion dollars a year.)

16 of 353 comments (clear)

  1. Owning vs Renting by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Microsoft STILL hasn't figured out that most people prefer to own something than rent something.

    Their quest for the almighty "endless-subscription" cash-cow is failing.

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    1. Re:Owning vs Renting by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I wouldn't call 25 million subscribers "failing".

      Given their user base, I wouldn't call it "succeeding", either.

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      Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
    2. Re:Owning vs Renting by dgatwood · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Just a few years ago, the assumption was that pretty much every computer user either owned or pirated Office. There are 1.25 billion Windows users alone, not counting the Mac users, which adds probably another .1 billion or so. So Microsoft's market share went from 100% just a few years back to 1.8% under the rental model. That's not just failing; it's failing very, very badly.

      Now this didn't happen all at once, mind you. It all started more than a decade ago when Microsoft massively overcharged for the Mac version of their office suite, resulting in the nascent iWork suite getting a foothold and eventually becoming dominant in that market. From there, they ignored the threat posed by OpenOffice and continued their existing pricing. OO gradually chipped away at the perception that everybody had to own the real thing for interoperability. So when Google Docs arrived on the scene and made it possible for folks to do most of the basics without paying a dime, there was pretty much nothing Microsoft could do about it other than try desperately to milk what was left of their collapsing market for every penny they could squeeze out of them.

      The bad news for Microsoft is that no matter what they do, they're unlikely to increase revenue much beyond their current levels. For most people, the free solutions are good enough, and the people for whom that isn't true are mostly already paying them for it. If they raise prices, more customers will look for ways to get by with the free solutions, and they'll lose subscribers. If they lower prices, nobody will suddenly think to themselves, "For just another few bucks a month, I could have Office," because the existing free tools already meet their needs.

      At this point, it's pretty much downhill from here as the free solutions continue to improve and the reasons for paying Microsoft continue to diminish. IMO, this is what a company on life support looks like, and as Michael Dell once famously said about another beleaguered company, if I were the CEO, "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders." Just saying.

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    3. Re:Owning vs Renting by imidan · · Score: 5, Informative

      Add to your list of people, the ones like me who purchased Office 2010 for Windows many years ago, purchased some version of Office for Mac a few years ago (2012 maybe?) and are completely satisfied with the features available. I have no reason to buy Office as a subscription because I already have almost everything of any use that it can do. The costs I paid are amortized for as long as I keep using the software, which at this rate is likely to be more than ten years for both packages. Before I bought 2010, for example, the previous version I bought was 97.

    4. Re:Owning vs Renting by matbury6017 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The MS Office hegemony is still strong and is still making MS a lot of money.

      May be true in the good ol' US of A but over in the EU, they're going full-steam ahead with switching from Microsoft Windows and Office to Ubuntu and LibreOffice (There's a draft directive to switch to free and open source IT solutions). Since governments and govt. agencies are Microsoft's main paying customers, then Microsoft are going downhill in a very large market. It's just a matter of how long it takes for the EU to drop Microsoft entirely.

      Need LibreOffice online? LibreOffice 3.5 can be installed on a server and will work in a web browser. Need a supported commercial solution? Check out Collabora and the many spin-off service providers.

  2. *new subscribers* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    *new* subscribers. I can only be a new subscriber once...after that i'm an existing customer. duh.

    Once MS have 100% market share their new subscribers will fall to 0. Is this a bad metric?

  3. Too many choices are a barrier to adoption by garcia · · Score: 5, Insightful

    About a year ago, they changed their offering and split it into so many different plans no one knows exactly what you get.

    MSFT needs to immediately limit themselves to four plans:

    1. Student

    2. Entry-level

    3. Power

    4. Everything

    And they need to make it very clear what these mean, in a single page document which is the same regardless of where you find it on Microsoft's site.

  4. It is shit by Cornwallis · · Score: 5, Interesting

    We're getting our 50 users off it. With the non-stop "Service" messages and the intrusive bullshit it keeps trying to push it has turned into a sinkhole.

    For example, Outlook users get prompted to install a NFL calendar add-on to follow football season. When I called support they first told me it must be a malware we picked up somewhere. After getting even more irate they told me "oh, well, yes, we do push that and you can't turn those messages off".

    Utter bullshit.

  5. Re:The decline is due to ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ... the adequacy of old perpetually licensed versions ... the preference against paying annually for software licenses

  6. Some figures for Adobe Creative Cloud by Anonymous+Brave+Guy · · Score: 5, Informative

    Here's an investor presentation from last week (PDF). It's a long document, but the following is mostly derived from a couple of slides at the bottom of page 3.

    It looks like their total revenues for Creative Cloud dipped a few percent and then recovered again over the period 2012-2015, and as of 2016 their annual recurring revenue for that area is up to around $3.5B, compared to annual revenue of around $2.5B back in 2012 when their subscription model was starting up.

    Over the same four-year window, it appears that their subscription ARR has been increasing roughly linearly, while their non-subscription revenues are fast approaching zero.

    In short, it looks like they are now better off than they were four years ago in terms of annual Creative Cloud revenue, by about 40% if they maintain their current subscription level.

    Another figure they mention is current year-on-year subscription growth of 46% outside the US. However, they are deafeningly quiet on what proportion of their overall market that represents or the equivalent figure for US customers. Their overall growth rate is clearly far less than that, so it could be that they're successfully expanding into foreign markets and that's helping to drive their overall subscription growth (probably a good thing for Adobe) but it could also be that sales in foreign markets are covering up a significant reduction in the US as increasing numbers of US customers are cancelling their subscriptions (probably a bad thing for Adobe).

    It's also difficult to tell how many subscribers they actually have, since there doesn't seem to be any breakdown of which of the available subscription plans are generating how much revenue or what sort of effects they see from volume licensing, subscribers from different countries, or subscribers paying in different currencies. If we guess an average subscriber is worth about US$500 per year to them in revenues, that would give them around 7 million current subscribers, but this could obviously be way off if say most of the revenues are actually from enterprise customers paying far less than the headline per-seat prices with their volume deals.

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  7. Re: Considering how often it is down... by ColdWetDog · · Score: 5, Funny

    As someone in Seattle that has suffered at least two-thousand days of downltime with our Internet access, you are wrong.

    If you would just lay off the expresso a bit then two hours won't seem quite that long a period of time.

    --
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  8. Re: Considering how often it is down... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Funny

    I work for a contractor inside Microsoft buildings, and they tell us to not access the Internet at work or from home.

    If you are using Microsoft products, that is good advice.

  9. Google Docs by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Google Docs is another reason. Google Docs doesn't have all the features of MS Office, but it is "good enough" for most people. Instead of $7 per user per month, it is $0 per month. Google Docs also has less downtime.

    1. Re:Google Docs by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Also, "cloud-based," was equivalent to "hackable."

      Google's datacenter is likely far less "hackable" than some small company's roll-yer-own solution.

  10. Re: Considering how often it is down... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    As someone in Seattle that has suffered at least two-thousand days of downltime with our Internet access

    2,000 days of downtime? Maybe you don't actually *have* internet service. Say, did a guy come around and sell you a cardboard box with the word In-tar-net written on it in crayon?

  11. Re:The decline is due to ... by Tough+Love · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The preference for paying nothing at all...

    Libreoffice 100 million users, zero pirates

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