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Most Scientists 'Can't Replicate Studies By Their Peers' (bbc.com)

Science is facing a "reproducibility crisis" where more than two-thirds of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments, research suggests. From a report: This is frustrating clinicians and drug developers who want solid foundations of pre-clinical research to build upon. From his lab at the University of Virginia's Centre for Open Science, immunologist Dr Tim Errington runs The Reproducibility Project, which attempted to repeat the findings reported in five landmark cancer studies. "The idea here is to take a bunch of experiments and to try and do the exact same thing to see if we can get the same results." You could be forgiven for thinking that should be easy. Experiments are supposed to be replicable. The authors should have done it themselves before publication, and all you have to do is read the methods section in the paper and follow the instructions. Sadly nothing, it seems, could be further from the truth.

20 of 331 comments (clear)

  1. s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    Change "drug trials" to "climate change", though, and watch the true believers react....

    1. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by lgw · · Score: 4, Insightful

      he infrared absorption of carbon dioxide is experimentally measured in the laboratory

      No one rational doubts this. That has never been what the climate change debate was about. But the atmosphere is not a bottle of air, or even a bottle of air and water (any modern meteorological model treats modeling he ocean at least as importantly as modeling the air). The atmosphere+hydrosphere is a complex, evolving system with many feedback mechanisms, both positive and negative.

      I mean, really, do you think a climate model is simply modeling a static stack of air with some CO2 in it? Really?

      The question is: quantitatively, what rate of human CO2 emission with create what effects, in detail. This is not the sort of science that lends itself to reproducible experiments, but that's fine, neither does astronomy or cosmology. It is, like any science, required to make falsifiable quantitative predictions.

      And, frankly, the best models aren't doing so well, giving about 2 sigmas of accuracy. If you generated hundreds of models at random, you'd expect a couple dozen to have 2 sigmas of accuracy. That doesn't mean the models are flawed in any fundamental way, but there's a big gap between "not fundamentally flawed" and "great, proven science".

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    2. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by greythax · · Score: 3, Insightful
      "Sir, the ship is sinking!"

      "Yes, but how FAST is it sinking?"

      "We're not entirely sure, but we know it is because we keep drilling holes."

      "Well, we better keep drilling until we know how fast, just to be safe."

    3. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Record high temps, record low temps. record rain, record drought.

      That's actually what you'd expect with a chaotic system built of multiple random variables. It would be unnatural for weather to always be the same.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  2. Fake science/sloppy science by dave3548 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

    1. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Baron_Yam · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I have to disagree. To me, "a fair amount of success comes down to technique, not the written protocol" means you're not documenting your protocol adequately.

      It would certainly be fair to say that some manual actions could take a lot of practice before the experimenter would likely be skilled enough to perform them, but there shouldn't be anything missing from the protocol documentation that someone attempting to reproduce the results would have to learn from scratch.

      Excepting well-established standard practices of the field, of course. You don't have to teach from kindergarten up to post-grad.

      I'm no bio researcher, but I am an IT guy and we could fill a library with books on substandard documentation making it difficult for others to follow in our footsteps.

    2. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Thud457 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This pretty sums up my experiences reproducing experiments in the lab : ob. Electron Band Structure In Germanium, My Ass

      --

      the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    3. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      Or perhaps this is the reason why you need to build a consensus among many scientists with similar results before you put much validity in any cutting edge research. All research is going to include assumptions, specialized techniques, biases, random variability of data, and many other factors which can reduce the validity of its conclusions.

      Your comment reeks of a double standard where if scientists cannot come to a consensus they are being fake or sloppy, but if they point out an overwhelming consensus they are not being scientific because a consensus shouldn't matter.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    4. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by sjames · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If it's not a standard protocol, why isn't it documented?

    5. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dread_ed · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly right. If it is not reproducible, it is not "Science," period.

      If, as others have written, your experiment is so finely predicated on the experimental set-up (using certain equipment, preparing samples or data in a certain way, etc.) then you need to document that so specifically that anyone can repeat it. Why, you ask, with an dumbfounded and incredulous look on your face? Because you could be introducing very specific bias in the way you set up your experiment. If it only works when you do it *just like this,* maybe the reason is that the experimental result is a direct consequence of your set-up and not an actual measurement of naturally occurring phenomena. I like to call it "measuring your equipment."

      If you cannot, through your extensive documentation, re-create the experiment in another lab with completely different humans what you have published is essentially science fiction.

      --
      When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
    6. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dread_ed · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Woah, I am confused by what you just wrote.

      You seem to be saying that if a bunch of scientists agree that *this* (whatever *this* is) is the way it is, but none of the experiments that prove that *this* is the way it is are reproducible, then we should just go with the consensus?

      Soooo, Galileo had some experiments he could back up, but the other scientists at the time had a consensus view of the cosmos. Their results were not reproducible, his were. You seem to be arguing for heliocentrism based on consensus.

      Essentially, your introduction of the concept of consensus based on results with a total lack of any comments on how reproducible those results are leaves me wondering just what you think the scientific method is predicated on.

      I don't care how "cutting edge" the research is. If it can be successfully reproduced and is based on sound principles I would consider it first before any "consensus" based on what a bunch of people think but can't back up with reproducible results.

      --
      When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
    7. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      To expect the exact same results for the exact same inputs in a universe such as ours is a fools errand. rather one should be able to spot similar trends within the differing group of results. That is how the scientific method works.

      No, but I expect that the results I obtain are reasonably within the statistical bounds of the original hypotheses, analyses, and conclusions. What use is the original science if I can't even replicate the original experiment within those statistical bounds? Is it even fair to call it science, then?

  3. Reproducibility is hard. by FellowConspirator · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In the experimental protocols listed in a paper, it is not unusual to have a method's section that is more or less an executive summary rather than a very detailed account of the underlying protocol. This is for two reasons: to great a level of detail leads to a methods section as big as the publication that the paper appears in, and second because many protocols more or less boil down to using a particular series kit or out-sourced lab service. Most journals require data supplements where an author must share their datasets in electronic form as an online addendum to the publication. I would support a similar requirement for a long-form protocol for reproduction of the study.

    That said, some protocols necessarily take a lot of money, special equipment, a carefully selected population of volunteers, and time. Reproducing some studies can be outright impractical.

    In computational biology and other computational extensions of the physical science, the reproducibility basically comes in the form of requirements to provide the software and raw data for a study. It's easy for the individual that compiles this information to verify that they get the same result as the one they report in the article. The concern there boils down to the provenance of the source data, which may be from registries, public data sets, or some combination of public and private data.

    1. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by RyanFenton · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why are we still using printed journals?

      Why is the amount of space a report takes up still an issue?

      Details are important. If you want a short version, then make a summary, but don't cut out the detail available to do that.

      In terms of ascii/unicode text, we're not going to run out of bytes to explain important scientific details.

      Heck - make videos of the processes, mention part numbers, and even show mistakes that you encountered along the way in your notes! Video hosting is free, and shouldn't be going away anytime soon. Making a process replication video should be a normal thing.

      If you're spending so much time anyway, so much of your life in these studies, what's the value in holding back important information?

      Ryan Fenton

    2. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by ooloorie · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In computational biology and other computational extensions of the physical science, the reproducibility basically comes in the form of requirements to provide the software and raw data for a study. It's easy for the individual that compiles this information to verify that they get the same result as the one they report in the article. The concern there boils down to the provenance of the source data, which may be from registries, public data sets, or some combination of public and private data.

      The purpose of reproduction is to guard against statistical accidents, bad assumptions, and fraud, and running the same software over the same data doesn't do that. Reproduction in the scientific sense means that someone who collects their own data and writes their own software using just the assumptions stated in your paper gets the same scientific result.

      Reproducibility in computational and data intensive disciplines is actually a bigger problem than in experimental sciences, because it's so easy to share code and data; that means that lots of people run basically the same code over basically the same data and seem to be "reproducing" a result, when in fact, they are adding no new information.

  4. Science discourages reproducing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Scientists are not rewarded for reproducing/debunking previous work. You can't easily get it published, because it is not regarded as new. Honestly, I think grad student projects should be almost entirely reproducing other results. It would insure that every important result is reproduced, and increase the emphasis of doing the science correctly rather than finding some novel result (which is usually a 2 sigma result which again can't be reproduced).

    1. Re:Science discourages reproducing by WrongMonkey · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You are vastly underestimating grad students. All grad students already have a bachelor's degree, had high enough grades to get accepted to grad school and had previous undergraduate research experience. Most incoming grad students have already published research papers. Many of them have had industry experience between undergrad and grad school. The average age of grad students is 33 years old. We're talking about mid-career professionals, not wet-behind the ears newbies.

  5. NB: most medical scientists by Artem+S.+Tashkinov · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The human body is the most complex organism in the known universe so there's nothing to be sneezed at or be surprised by. For instance recent studies have shown that for a lot of people placebo works even when people have a perfect knowledge that they are given placebo.

    As another confirmation, the brain has the ability to directly change/affect the chemical processes in the body as demonstrated by Wim Hof who can manage his body's temperature at will.

  6. Re:The rush to "publish or perish" by Dthief · · Score: 3, Insightful

    And who is going to waste their time reproducing results that get them no glory, no "real" publications, etc etc etc

    --
    www.RacquetUp.org - Helping Detroit Youth
  7. Questions require listening by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's not heresy if the science is sound. Simply questioning isn't valid, though.

    Questioning, of course, is always valid. But "questioning" is useless when the questioner has no interest in listening to anybody answering the question.

    Far too much of the "questioning" about climate science is from people who have no interest in any of the science, the measurements, or the data, and won't bother to learn anything about it.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com