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All Fossil-Fuel Vehicles Will Vanish In 8 Years, Says Stanford Study (financialpost.com)
Stanford University economist Tony Seba forecasts in his new report that petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will no longer be sold anywhere in the world within the next eight years. As a result, the transportation market will transition and switch entirely to electrification, "leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century," reports Financial Post. From the report: Seba's premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles. Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024. Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a "mass stranding of existing vehicles." The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle. It is a twin "death spiral" for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in time. The long-term price of crude will fall to $25 a barrel. Most forms of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble.
> But In Europe, the average age of new car buyers is already over 50, has been climbing for years.
Yet the volume of car traffic also keeps climbing year after year, eclipsing all other modes of transportation.
I hardly know anyone in my direct environment who doesn't have a car. Those without cars are typically city dwellers with an island mentality. The city is their island where they live and work and they hardly ever leave it. A place that's 40 minutes outside of town by car, is considered "far away" by them and they find it hard to grasp the immediate freedom that a car affords you.
Good lord, people. The guy is a "lecturer" in Stanford's continuing studies program. He's an adjunct in a nobody program. This paper is an embarrassment.
Protip - when identifying someone as an "economist" at a university they should be a researcher in the economics department. Duh.......
But hey, I suppose a super-safe and boring life is so much more meaningful than a a free and enjoyable one with some risk....
The problem is that the risk isn't just to YOU, the driver, out enjoying the freedom of a recreational drive. The risk is to pedestrians, passengers of other, self-driving, cars, bicyclists, and anyone else on the road. If self-driving cars are practical and the only reason for driving a car yourself is for pleasure, is it reasonable to expect all those other people to put their lives at risk so you can enjoy that pleasure?
If I can be modded down for being a troll, can I be modded up for being an orc, or a balrog?
You're lucky your zipcar club doesn't have anyone who shits on the seats yet.
First rule of Zipcar club is that anyone who shits on the seats gets kicked out of Zipcar club.
Really, it's not like public transit. The zipcar people know who had access to the car last, and the zipcar members know they know that, so antisocial behavior is pretty rare.
I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
Your $30-50/day "basically free" sounds ridiculously overpriced, and that $700-1000/mo is some kind of fantasy. I just did the math right now and the total cost of ownership for all vehicles I've ever owned over the 15 years I've been driving, including fuel, purchase price, insurance, and maintenance costs, amounts to about $8/day, under $250/mo, TCO.
-Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
"I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
You cite horseback riding, that's a good example.
Horseback riding has lost almost all its practical value, and even when it is allowed, we don't see many horses on the road. It doesn't mean those who enjoy riding are screwed. They just do it in specially designed places.
If self driving cars become the norm, people who enjoy driving will end up in places more adapted to their hobby, like race tracks.