Slashdot Mirror
Rising Seas Set To Double Coastal Flooding By 2050, Says Study (phys.org)
Coastal flooding is about to get dramatically more frequent around the world as sea levels rise from global warming, researchers said Thursday. Phys.Org reports, "A 10-to-20 centimeter (four-to-eight inch) jump in the global ocean watermark by 2050 -- a conservative forecast -- would double flood risk in high-latitude regions, they reports in the journal Scientific Reports." From the report: Major cities along the North American seaboard such as Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, along with the European Atlantic coast, would be highly exposed, they found. But it would only take half as big a jump in ocean levels to double the number of serious flooding incidents in the tropics, including along highly populated river deltas in Asia and Africa. Even at the low end of this sea rise spectrum, Mumbai, Kochi and Abidjan and many other cities would be significantly affected. To make up for the lack of observational data, Vitousek and his colleagues used computer modeling and a statistical method called extreme value theory. "We asked the question: with waves factored in, how much sea level rise will it take to double the frequency of flooding?" Sea levels are currently rising by three to four millimeters (0.10 to 0.15 inches) a year, but the pace has picked up by about 30 percent over the last decade. It could accelerate even more as continent-sized ice blocs near the poles continue to shed mass, especially in Antarctica, which Vitousek described as the sea level "wild card." If oceans go up 25 centimeters by mid-century, "flood levels that occur every 50 years in the tropics would be happening every year or more," he said.
Why not just come straight out and say chinese/hippy conspiracy? Why bother with the pretense?
Your current leader thinks it's fiction (along with most of slashdot of course), so that should be a great comfort to you. Nothing bad will happen.
BTW, what 'crop' of apocalypses?
I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
Sea levels where up to 6 meters higher 4000-6000 years ago.
Prieto et al., 2016
“Analysis of the RSL [relative sea level] database revealed that the RSL [relative sea level] rose to reach the present level at or before c. 7000 cal yr BP, with the peak of the sea-level highstand c. +4 m [above present] between c. 6000 and 5500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present] This RSL [relative sea level] curve was re-plotted by Gyllencreutz et al. (2010) using the same index points and qualitative approach but using the calibrated ages. It shows rising sea-levels following the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), reaching a RSL [relative sea level] maximum of +6.5 m above present at c. 6500 cal yr BP [calendar years before present], followed by a stepped regressive trend towards the present.”
Why do you think calling a congressman would change anything in any way?
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
thats also because of the threat, things were done to mitigate it, i.e. improved techniques, grow more higher yield crops hence GM plus loads of other improvements like greenhousing. Its good that it didn't come to pass but if nothing was done then maybe it would be a lot different result, personally i rather see things done and predictions fail. A bit like dumping fossil fuels and using renewable energy will, at minimum, improve the lives and health of people in cities and towns around the world and those living near fossil fuel generators
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
Why not just come straight out and say chinese/hippy conspiracy? Why bother with the pretense?
I am sorry, he is citing predictions that didn't happen. What do you call a theory that makes wrong predictions ?
What do you call someone who pushes theories that don't make accurate predictions ?
And with regard to your own attitude what do you call someone who is no longer looking at what is actually happening, and just shouting down anyone that disagrees with them ?
I get that it makes sense to be "concerned", but common sense provides that no panicking is required.
I'm glad we agree on this. The panicking so far hasn't been from the scientists, who have simply been pointing out that there are problems coming up and that we'd better look at them, especially since we can address them. Most of the furore has come from sensationalist media and different interest groups on both sides; those that want us to abandon all modern industry in the name of nostalgic (but misguided) environmentalism, and those that only care for their own, short term interests and don't give hoot for what happens to others. Such as the fossil fuel industry - they know perfectly well that it would benefit the world both environmentally and economically, if we seriously developed renewable energy, and it would even benefit the energy producers themselves in the long term; but they don't want that - it would cost investments up front, and they wouldn't see the profits from that for maybe decades. That's where all the panic and yelling comes from, not from the climate scientists.
However, at the end of all this, we DO have a problem, it is likely to become serious, even if to a lay-person a few millimeters or 5 degrees doesn't sound like much. And fortunately we can do something about it - a lot, in fact. But it is like all other 'repairs': at first you notice a mouldy spot on the wall paper in a corner, and you know that there is a small leak in the roof. If you fix it now, it will cost you a bit of sweat, standing on a ladder, maybe you have to spend a bit of money. Or you can wait until the whole roof is sagging, and you have to replace large parts of the structural timber and redecorate most of the house; and you will have call in a team of builders, you may have to move out for a couple of months and it will costs very serious money. I can't see why the choice is hard to make.
Sea Levels really are rising. But not very fast.
The good news is that the article is, like most of the stuff BeauHD posts, more or less unmitigated nonsense. Despite mankind's practice of building way to much stuff below the level likely to experience storm surge in a major storm, a few inches of sea level rise in the next 50 years clearly isn't going to do all that much additional harm.
The bad news is that there is no reason to expect sea levels to stop rising any time soon. Here's a link to the NOAA webpage for the tide gauge at The Battery in NYC. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.... If you look carefully at the picture of the gauge, you'll see there is probably less than a meter clearance between the high tide line and the top of the dock. A few centuries of 20-30cm/century sea level rise and "they" are going to have a problem. And not only with the dock. The street, parking area, and building behind the dock all appear to be at about the same level as the dock.
BTW. The evidence is thin, but it looks like sea levels in the last interglacial period 120,000 years ago peaked 5 meters (16 feet in American) above current sea level.
For whatever reason, I couldn't get to historical tidal gauge data for the Battery from the NOAA site (503 error). Maybe I clicked the wrong link. Here's a link to a chart from a reputable source (psmsl.org)
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q...
Note that a couple of cm per century of the Battery seal level Rise is thought to be due to tectonic forces -- The Battery is thought to be sinking a bit due to glacial isostasy.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
"There are people in Miami (and other Florida coastal cities), who beg to differ."
They seem to have built parts of Miami Beach below the level reached by the highest high tides. Imprudent of course, But profitable if you can sell the property before the moon and sun next align in an unfortunate configuration. Maybe they should have put a bit more thought into approving building permits.
There are a number of tidal gauges in Florida and several in the Miami area.
Here's what NOAA has to say about Miami Beach
"The mean sea level trend is 2.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.43 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1931 to 1981 which is equivalent to a change of 0.78 feet in 100 years. "
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa....
Don't take my word for it, nor your local newspaper's and certainly not the Slashdot editor's. I'd encourage you to check both NOAA.gov and psmsl.org for yourself.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
There are plenty of actual predictions that are actually published in actual referenceable sources.
I really don't see the point in citing an offhand comment made in a radio interview as a "prediction", when the person quoted has an actual bibliography of hundreds of real publications that can be referenced.
(not to mention the point of misattributing a quote that's citing a guy informally recalling something another guy said in a conversation a decade earlier, and misremembering key details.)
http://www.geoffreylandis.com