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8 In 10 People Now See Climate Change As a 'Catastrophic Risk,' Says Survey (trust.org)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from the Thomas Reuters Foundation: Nearly nine in 10 people say they are ready to make changes to their standard of living if it would prevent future climate catastrophe, a survey on global threats found Wednesday. The survey of more than 8,000 people in eight countries -- the United States, China, India, Britain, Australia, Brazil, South Africa and Germany -- found that 84 percent of people now consider climate change a "global catastrophic risk." That puts worry about climate change only slightly behind fears about large-scale environmental damage and the threat of politically motivated violence escalating into war, according to the Global Challenges Foundation, which commissioned the Global Catastrophic Risks 2017 report. The survey, released in advance of this week's G7 summit of advanced economies in Italy, also found that 85 percent of people think the United Nations needs reforms to be better equipped to address global threats. About 70 percent of those surveyed said they think it may be time to create a new global organization -- with power to enforce its decisions -- specifically designed to deal with a wide range of global risks. Nearly 60 percent said they would be prepared to have their country give up some level of sovereignty to make that happen.

15 of 384 comments (clear)

  1. Regulatory capture by Esteanil · · Score: 5, Interesting

    While I fully agree with climate change being a catastrophic risk, a global organization with enforcement power will immidiately become the most valuable target for lobbying in the world.

    I believe we'd see such an organization effectively ruled by the very interests it's set to regulate within a few years at most.

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    1. Re:Regulatory capture by AmiMoJo · · Score: 3, Interesting

      A much simpler and quicker fix is to just shift the subsidies to cleaner energy. Energy is expensive really, it only looks cheap to the end user because much of the cost is either hidden in tax funded subsidy or externalized to someone else.

      In the end, people will usually vote with their wallets. Then they bitch and moan that their wallets are being targeted, because it's the only way to save the fucking planet.

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    2. Re:Regulatory capture by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      From the first comment on another shameless piece of propaganda:

      This phase of Burbo Bank has an installed capacity of 252.4 MW, a capacity factor of 32.5%, an 'Expected Life' of 25 years, occupies an area of 40 sq km and costs £800 million.

      Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant has an installed capacity of 3,200 MW, an availability factor of 90%, a 'Design Life' of 60 years, occupies an area of 0.69 sq km and costs £18 billion.

      84.2 Burbo Bank-sized offshore wind farms would have to be built to deliver the same amount of [intermittent] electricity as the [24/7] electricity HPC will deliver.

      84.2 Burbo Banks would cost £67.36 billion and would occupy an area of 3,368 sq km - that's 58 km x 58 km. Hinkley's site measures 830 metres x 830 metres.

      Add to the £67.36 billion the cost of the dedicated gas-fired back up plant for the regular and sometimes prolonged periods when "...the 260 foot blades spans an area the size of the London Eye..." don't have a whoosh in them, and it would be fair to say, we could get 4 Hinkleys and therefore 4X more low-carbon [24/7] electricity for the same money.

      It's quite pathetic how renewables supporters like Jillian Ambrose apply nauseous levels of pure propaganda to articles such as this. No attempt whatsoever of presenting any element of the substantial downside to offshore wind.

      HPC isn't nearly as expensive as the alternatives being pushed. Countries that aren't drowning in anti-nuclear hysteria propagated by tools like you actually have inexpensive nuclear, and better technology will only tip scale further. Dismissing the most effective tool, and helping to maintain artificially inflated costs makes you a traitor to your supposed cause.

      The only winners in your fantastical renewable-only scenario are those harvesting the subsidies, and those supplying the fossil fuels which will continue to provide the bulk of the energy.

    3. Re:Regulatory capture by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Batteries at $100/kWh will be great for electric cars, yet still orders of magnitude too expensive for seasonal energy storage, which is a requirement if you don't want people freezing to death. It is not uncommon to have essentially zero wind and solar output for weeks on end during winter.

      Your "bright" renewable future will continue to depend on fossil energy, as it does today. It certainly isn't cheap if you account for the cost of backup generation or storage necessary to provide reliable power.

  2. Re:But President Trump goes by taiwanjohn · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Trump, plus a good percentage of the US population, which means the ratios must be much higher in the other countries surveyed in order to average out to 80% overall. According to Gallup, just 42% of Americans "Think global warming will pose a serious threat in their lifetime." Obviously that's not exactly the same thing as "catastrophic risk" with no time constraint, but it's frankly lower than I expected.

    Pew has a more lengthy survey which does a detailed breakdown of views by political affiliation. Here's one aspect I found intriguing:

    One thing that doesn’t strongly influence opinion on climate issues, perhaps surprisingly, is one’s level of general scientific literacy. According to the survey, the effects of having higher, medium or lower scores on a nine-item index of science knowledge tend to be modest and are only sometimes related to people’s views about climate change and climate scientists, especially in comparison with party, ideology and concern about the issue. But, the role of science knowledge in people’s beliefs about climate matters is varied and where a relationship occurs, it is complex. To the extent that science knowledge influences people’s judgments related to climate change and trust in climate scientists, it does so among Democrats, but not Republicans. For example, Democrats with high science knowledge are especially likely to believe the Earth is warming due to human activity, to see scientists as having a firm understanding of climate change, and to trust climate scientists’ information about the causes of climate change. But Republicans with higher science knowledge are no more or less likely to hold these beliefs. Thus, people’s political orientations also tend to influence how knowledge about science affects their judgments and beliefs about climate matters and their trust in climate scientists.

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  3. Re: Something's fishy in Denmark. by silentcoder · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As a South African - go fuck yourself with your racist stereotypes.

    South Africans mostly consider climate change a serious risk to our lives, and one of the nasty impacts of climate change is to raise food prices - by much more than combating it ever could. South Africa has huge investments in renewable energy and these are growing (And make up the ENTIRETY of private sector energy investment).
    The only deniers in South Africa are conservatives and they make up about erm 1% of the population - they're a loud minority but they are about as influential on the country's culture and politics as pissing in the ocean is on it's salt level.

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  4. Let me help by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Most political AGW "fixes" involve taxing CO2, not methane. Methane produced mostly by farmers, who lobby heavily, and are in Iowa the first presidential caucus. If you are interested in winning elections and don't care about solving AGW you need to not admit methane is a bigger problem, which is what liberals do.
    Taxing CO2 is taxing the middle class, which to liberals is perfectly acceptable. As the DNC has shown, screw the middle class and lose the "blue wall". Instead of admitting they hate the working class they come up with "Its the Russians" when they lose.

    Now that the reason they tax the wrong things is covered, lets see what happens with that tax money... It goes to Solyndra, which ended up producing nothing of value and was split up and sold off in pieces. However they did donate heavily to Obama's election. Along with Fisker Auto (not even an American company, but owned by Al Gore), and A123 again who heavily donated to the DNC and was sold off to China.

    So looking at how the DNC deals with AGW, they tax people who they think aren't likely to hurt them in elections, and give that tax money to people who help them get elected and don't seem to care if it helps with AGW at all.

    Put me down as the guy who looked at the solutions put into place to solve AGW and noticed it doesn't actually help but is a money scheme for the DNC instead.

    1. Re:Let me help by mellon · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Methane is a hugely valuable resource. What blows my mind is how many people are leaving that money on the table. Methane from farms is zero-impact, because it comes through a renewal cycle, not from fossil fuels. If you put all your manure in methane digesters, you can generate a fuck-ton of power from it, and as a bonus, what comes out of the digester is a lot less nasty to dispose of.

    2. Re:Let me help by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      And here is the anti-science, increase middle class taxes, liberal. Every scientific study says methane is a massive problem, but since the "regulators" set the rules to measure over 100 years instead of 20, they can ignore methane and the dreaded taxing people that help me get elected.

      Methane - 8% of greenhouse emissions, x86 times the impact of CO2 (Yes, that makes is a significantly bigger problem than CO2). Completely ignored by anti-science DNC who sets taxing policy based on who they don't like, not based on science.

      Just look at proposed solutions and what has been done or is proposed and you QUICKLY see that they don't see it as a problem. They see it as tax revenue to give to people who help them get elected. They don't care about AGW in the least.

    3. Re:Let me help by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Where is this liberals don't care about methane BS coming from? I remember the Obama admin creating regulations to force frackers to capture methane venting during drilling operations while I saw that was quickly undone by Trump. Most people I know are ready to take on Climate Change from every angle necessary, no golden cows.

      Let's be honest with ourselves, democrats aren't the problem with Climate Change. Al Gore and every destroy the middle class type argument are just more fake news frothing up from the merchants of doubt.

    4. Re:Let me help by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Interesting

      Story of Al Gore admitting he lied about corn subsidies in order to win elections.

      Citation provided. What where you lying about again?

    5. Re:Let me help by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And here is the anti-science, increase middle class taxes, liberal. Every scientific study says methane is a massive problem, but since the "regulators" set the rules to measure over 100 years instead of 20, they can ignore methane and the dreaded taxing people that help me get elected.

      Methane - 8% of greenhouse emissions, x86 times the impact of CO2 (Yes, that makes is a significantly bigger problem than CO2). Completely ignored by anti-science DNC who sets taxing policy based on who they don't like, not based on science.

      Just look at proposed solutions and what has been done or is proposed and you QUICKLY see that they don't see it as a problem. They see it as tax revenue to give to people who help them get elected. They don't care about AGW in the least.

      And here is the anti-truth, twist the words of the person I'm quoting typical american political partisan. I did not say that methane is not a "massive problem", I said it is not as big a problem as CO2. Methane levels are 1080 parts per billion above pre-industrial levels. CO2 levels are 140,000 parts per billion above pre-industrial levels. Since you object to 100 year measurements, lets just go with the difference it makes RIGHT NOW, and we come up with CO2 having a 50% larger impact than methane, in terms of the amount added to the atmosphere by human activity. This is completely unrealistic comparison of the two for the long term effects, but it is the most extreme one you are going to get and it still falls short of your claims.

      As for your political ranting, maybe I'm missing something here as I'm not american, but I thought the GOP, not the DNC, was the party of choice amoung the farming communities you rail against.

  5. Re:But President Trump goes by mellon · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It is cyclical, but there is nothing in the fossil record showing as rapid an upward cycle as we are seeing now. That's why the worry.

  6. I'll believe they are serious when... by Mspangler · · Score: 2, Interesting

    They demand the end of commercial air travel. After all, it's not necessary to humanity, (we lived without it until less than a hundred years ago), and it puts out a lot of CO2, and it's not possible to electrify in the foreseeable future.

    Until then, it's "make someone else change or pay so that I can keep my perks."

  7. Re:But President Trump goes by jellomizer · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I would avoid jumping onto the conclusions that Conservatives are less educated than Liberals. The larger correlation is that liberals will live more in Urban Areas, while Conservatives live in Rural areas. In these different areas, their world view is different. In Urban areas, a strong government is an overall positive, as there are services that need to be provided, and with a lot of people working closely together, a strong rule of law and regulations is needed for that area to function. In rural areas they are more left to fend for themselves, there tax money is going to places where they will see no benefit, and there is a culture if you have a problem you need to solve it yourself. So such regulations proposed by the government seem like an overall negative.
    Now both areas have highly educated people, and less educated who will vote for whatever party. In urban areas the Poor are often under educated and vote liberal because government is trying to prevent them from dying, as the city environment can prevent them from living off the land and being able to fend for themselves. In rural areas, the poor who have resources to fend for themselves, doesn't need rules and regulations trying to stop them from doing what they need to do to live.
    Conservatives seem to rule corporate higher management, and even modern farmers you need to be just as technical savvy as a Silicon Valley tech worker. These people have those degrees, but because they are working commercial they tend not to flaunt them as much. While in urban areas, there are more colleges and universities, and government agencies, where people will need the education status to help push their agendas.
    Now in terms of Science. Liberal groups have seemed to reject science that says "This product is safe" (GMO, Vaccines...) because they expect government to make sure what we do is safe. While Conservative groups reject science that says "This product is dangerous" (Global Warming, Fracking...) because they are afraid that government will take away necessary tools for them.

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