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PC Market Could Return To Growth in 2019 (betanews.com)
IDC's latest Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker offers new insight as to why the firm believes the PC market is set for a growth period a few years from now. From a report: Detachable tablets such as Microsoft's Surface line and Apple's iPad Pro will lead the growth as consumers have turned away from laptops in favor of these more versatile computing devices. Last year, 21.5 million of these devices were shipped and the number of units sold could reach as high as 45.9 million in 2021. Notebook computers and mobile workstations are another category that will see continued growth with shipments rising from 156.8 million units in 2016 to 163.7 million by the year 2021. Desktop computers are still decreasing in popularity and that trend is likely to continue with their sales predicted to decrease by 15 million a year leading up to 2021.
Detachable tablets such as Microsoft's Surface line and Apple's iPad Pro will lead the growth as consumers have turned away from laptops in favor of these more versatile computing devices.
Surface Pro perhaps. But I don't see how an iPad Pro, constrained by the App Store Review Guidelines, is "more versatile" than a PC that can run anything. In particular, the ban on time-limited free trials has hindered ports of applications from macOS to iOS. And even if you stick to free applications, it'll cost you $499 extra if you want to be able to compile them from source because loading applications onto an iPad Pro requires a Mac, which starts at $499.
...consumers have become idiots when it comes to technology, and even a full-fledged operating system is too complex for them to operate.
Oh, that is absolutely true. Computer user since 1971 here (not on any PC class device at the time). I am constantly dismayed in the modern era when I try to give very simple instructions to someone and they look at me like I'm speaking Martian. I'm not talking about things only a programmer might know, I'm talking about basic operation of the device.
"Move file A into directory B" -> "Huh? Wuzzat mean? Where's the icon to do that?"
That's the normal level now. Things have been so targeted to the LCD that most users simply cannot do anything which doesn't already have an icon for them to push. General purpose computation device? Not so much.
That means to them, a computer is merely a device to get onto Twitter and Instagram. That's it. They see no functional difference between a powerful desktop and a tablet, except that the desktop is bigger and more cumbersome. Hence there is a large consumer movement toward "curated" experiences.
At this rate of change, in another 10 years I fear general computing will be dead in the consumer space. Maybe even illegal, since it gives too much control to the end user. The genie has to be put back in the bottle, and consumers are playing right along.
Layne's Law of Debate implies that without agreement on definitions, a debate can't proceed fruitfully. So let's get things cleared up first:
Android is a toy operating system.
I put toy operating system into a web search engine and got a bunch of links about hobbyist OS development. Android certainly isn't that. So what do you mean by a "toy operating system"?
Organizations like Gartner and IDC can provide data about the past and the present. When they start claiming they have any insight into the future whatsoever, ignore them. Their track record for predicting things is either unimpressive (predicting the obvious) to hilariously incorrect (any time they project a hyped technologieshttps://apple.slashdot.org/story/17/05/29/1613217/pc-market-could-return-to-growth-in-2019# future).
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
You appear to claim that all "tablets" are "toy hardware". Do you consider the Surface Pro, Surface Book and other detachables to be "tablets" and therefore "toy hardware"? Or would the same hardware be a non-"toy" if running Windows but a "toy" if running Android x86?
I seek only clarity. If it takes several iterations to define "toy OS" and "toy hardware", I have the patience.
Isn't that the way it should be? Do the end users need to know how the sausage is made? Most people aren't involved in the computer industry and just want to get a job done, and computers assist in getting the job done. Any time spent mucking about with the OS is time wasted, and a good OS design would be for the user to not have to interact with the OS at all.
It's not a matter of control and government conspiracies or whatever that last sentence was about. It's about users being willing to give up customization they don't care about to have a more efficient experience. Personally I can't wait until ubiquitous Amazon Echo-type devices make even cell phone screens a bit unnecessary.
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