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PC Market Could Return To Growth in 2019 (betanews.com)
IDC's latest Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker offers new insight as to why the firm believes the PC market is set for a growth period a few years from now. From a report: Detachable tablets such as Microsoft's Surface line and Apple's iPad Pro will lead the growth as consumers have turned away from laptops in favor of these more versatile computing devices. Last year, 21.5 million of these devices were shipped and the number of units sold could reach as high as 45.9 million in 2021. Notebook computers and mobile workstations are another category that will see continued growth with shipments rising from 156.8 million units in 2016 to 163.7 million by the year 2021. Desktop computers are still decreasing in popularity and that trend is likely to continue with their sales predicted to decrease by 15 million a year leading up to 2021.
...consumers have become idiots when it comes to technology, and even a full-fledged operating system is too complex for them to operate.
Oh, that is absolutely true. Computer user since 1971 here (not on any PC class device at the time). I am constantly dismayed in the modern era when I try to give very simple instructions to someone and they look at me like I'm speaking Martian. I'm not talking about things only a programmer might know, I'm talking about basic operation of the device.
"Move file A into directory B" -> "Huh? Wuzzat mean? Where's the icon to do that?"
That's the normal level now. Things have been so targeted to the LCD that most users simply cannot do anything which doesn't already have an icon for them to push. General purpose computation device? Not so much.
That means to them, a computer is merely a device to get onto Twitter and Instagram. That's it. They see no functional difference between a powerful desktop and a tablet, except that the desktop is bigger and more cumbersome. Hence there is a large consumer movement toward "curated" experiences.
At this rate of change, in another 10 years I fear general computing will be dead in the consumer space. Maybe even illegal, since it gives too much control to the end user. The genie has to be put back in the bottle, and consumers are playing right along.