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PC Market Could Return To Growth in 2019 (betanews.com)

Posted by msmash on from the depends-on-how-define-things dept.

IDC's latest Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker offers new insight as to why the firm believes the PC market is set for a growth period a few years from now. From a report: Detachable tablets such as Microsoft's Surface line and Apple's iPad Pro will lead the growth as consumers have turned away from laptops in favor of these more versatile computing devices. Last year, 21.5 million of these devices were shipped and the number of units sold could reach as high as 45.9 million in 2021. Notebook computers and mobile workstations are another category that will see continued growth with shipments rising from 156.8 million units in 2016 to 163.7 million by the year 2021. Desktop computers are still decreasing in popularity and that trend is likely to continue with their sales predicted to decrease by 15 million a year leading up to 2021.

15 of 94 comments (clear)

  1. You must be kidding by 110010001000 · · Score: 3, Funny

    The Surface is going to start selling? Give me a break.

    1. Re:You must be kidding by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 3, Informative

      I wouldn't say "better", but the Surface Pro is a full computer (real version of Windows) while the iPad Pro is only iOS (good for basic stuff but nowhere near as useful as macOS).

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    2. Re:You must be kidding by tepples · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This assumes that Windows 10 S will take off outside the K-12 (primary and secondary) education market. But Windows 10 S can't run Visual Studio or other compilers. (See subheading "Your app generates code" in "Prepare to package an app (Desktop Bridge)".) Without the ability to complete AP Computer Science homework, what makes you think Windows 10 S will take off even in secondary education?

  2. Orrrr... by CODiNE · · Score: 3, Interesting

    With actual improvements in recent desktop CPUs people might see a reason to upgrade again.

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    1. Re:Orrrr... by jellomizer · · Score: 2

      Well this is return of growth, I doubt that it will reach its heyday of the early 2000's. However we are no longer looking for the PC to be a Personal Computer but more as a Personal Work Station, where Power Usage isn't the limiting factor. Tables, Convertible Laptops, Ultabooks, netbooks.... Are all tied to trying to have long enough battery life, and are small and light. For most home and personal use, this is a good trade off. As normal jobs on our personal computing devices. Don't require have processor lifting. But for Serious Computing professionals and Serious gamers. They PC as a Work Station. Where Power and Size isn't the issue, but how much raw power can you afford is. Being able to hook it up to large High Resolution Displays, with the ability to upgrade components that fail, or become obsolete faster than others.
      Now there is a lot of need for these systems. However they will no longer be a staple in the home and at work for everyone. Your Boss and execs who just view charts and graphs. Would be more than happy with a tablet that gives them the info without having to lug around a large system. But for the Accountants, Engineers, Developers... All those people who actually do the work, needs systems that can keep up with demand, Because the Accountants can always use something that trends a years worth of data faster. Engineers can always have something that renders a complex cad design faster and cleaner. Developers allowing to test compile and test there programs under high loads....

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    2. Re:Orrrr... by Luthair · · Score: 2

      I'm not sure that is the case - what tasks are you using your PC for that are still CPU bound? I'm using an i5-3570k and the reason I haven't upgraded is simply that nothing I do makes the CPU feel slow.

  3. Lack of free trials has hindered iPad Pro by tepples · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Detachable tablets such as Microsoft's Surface line and Apple's iPad Pro will lead the growth as consumers have turned away from laptops in favor of these more versatile computing devices.

    Surface Pro perhaps. But I don't see how an iPad Pro, constrained by the App Store Review Guidelines, is "more versatile" than a PC that can run anything. In particular, the ban on time-limited free trials has hindered ports of applications from macOS to iOS. And even if you stick to free applications, it'll cost you $499 extra if you want to be able to compile them from source because loading applications onto an iPad Pro requires a Mac, which starts at $499.

  4. The Versatile Idiot. by geekmux · · Score: 3, Informative

    How the hell is a tablet or other "smart" device with it's nifty camera and bucket o' apps more versatile than a laptop running a full operating system that has the capability of actually installing software packages from hundreds of different vendors and can be customized considerably more from both the software and hardware standpoint?

    I think the only thing we're becoming more versatile at doing is accepting the fact that consumers have become idiots when it comes to technology, and even a full-fledged operating system is too complex for them to operate.

    Not to mention the fact that consumers apparently love pissing money away replacing their hardware every 2-3 years, which is what the "smart" market dictates. That's really the part that chaps my ass the most. Running hardware for a decade to maximize useful life is practically illegal now. And yet we bitch about filling landfills.

    1. Re:The Versatile Idiot. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      ...consumers have become idiots when it comes to technology, and even a full-fledged operating system is too complex for them to operate.

      Oh, that is absolutely true. Computer user since 1971 here (not on any PC class device at the time). I am constantly dismayed in the modern era when I try to give very simple instructions to someone and they look at me like I'm speaking Martian. I'm not talking about things only a programmer might know, I'm talking about basic operation of the device.

      "Move file A into directory B" -> "Huh? Wuzzat mean? Where's the icon to do that?"

      That's the normal level now. Things have been so targeted to the LCD that most users simply cannot do anything which doesn't already have an icon for them to push. General purpose computation device? Not so much.

      That means to them, a computer is merely a device to get onto Twitter and Instagram. That's it. They see no functional difference between a powerful desktop and a tablet, except that the desktop is bigger and more cumbersome. Hence there is a large consumer movement toward "curated" experiences.

      At this rate of change, in another 10 years I fear general computing will be dead in the consumer space. Maybe even illegal, since it gives too much control to the end user. The genie has to be put back in the bottle, and consumers are playing right along.

    2. Re:The Versatile Idiot. by tepples · · Score: 2

      At this rate of change, in another 10 years I fear general computing will be dead in the consumer space. Maybe even illegal, since it gives too much control to the end user.

      How would banning general-purpose computers fail to interfere with AP Computer Science, Code.org, and other efforts to train the next generation of coders?

    3. Re:The Versatile Idiot. by kamapuaa · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Isn't that the way it should be? Do the end users need to know how the sausage is made? Most people aren't involved in the computer industry and just want to get a job done, and computers assist in getting the job done. Any time spent mucking about with the OS is time wasted, and a good OS design would be for the user to not have to interact with the OS at all.

      It's not a matter of control and government conspiracies or whatever that last sentence was about. It's about users being willing to give up customization they don't care about to have a more efficient experience. Personally I can't wait until ubiquitous Amazon Echo-type devices make even cell phone screens a bit unnecessary.

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  5. Work on the bus by tepples · · Score: 2

    If work is for the office, and battery power is for viewing things made by others, where does this leave people who do work while riding a bus, train, or airplane? For example, while commuting to and from my day job on the city bus, I work on my second job, which is work-from-home contract programming. And I prefer a smaller laptop because it's easier to carry than a 17" monster.

  6. Re:Android is PC because it has AIDE by tepples · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Layne's Law of Debate implies that without agreement on definitions, a debate can't proceed fruitfully. So let's get things cleared up first:

    Android is a toy operating system.

    I put toy operating system into a web search engine and got a bunch of links about hobbyist OS development. Android certainly isn't that. So what do you mean by a "toy operating system"?

  7. As always... by Junta · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Organizations like Gartner and IDC can provide data about the past and the present. When they start claiming they have any insight into the future whatsoever, ignore them. Their track record for predicting things is either unimpressive (predicting the obvious) to hilariously incorrect (any time they project a hyped technologieshttps://apple.slashdot.org/story/17/05/29/1613217/pc-market-could-return-to-growth-in-2019# future).

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  8. Re:Android is PC because it has AIDE by tepples · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You appear to claim that all "tablets" are "toy hardware". Do you consider the Surface Pro, Surface Book and other detachables to be "tablets" and therefore "toy hardware"? Or would the same hardware be a non-"toy" if running Windows but a "toy" if running Android x86?

    I seek only clarity. If it takes several iterations to define "toy OS" and "toy hardware", I have the patience.