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Denmark Is Killing Tesla and Other Electric Cars (bloomberg.com)

An anonymous shares an article: The electric car has dropped out of favor in the country that pioneered renewable energy. Sales in Denmark of Electrically Chargeable Vehicles (ECV), which include plug-in hybrids, plunged 60.5 percent in the first quarter of the year, compared with the first three months of 2016, according to latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). That contrasts with an increase of nearly 80 percent in neighboring Sweden and an average rise of 30 percent in the European Union. Denmark, a global leader in wind power whose own attempt at an electric car in the early 1980s famously flopped, used to be enthralled with them. Its bicycle-loving people bought 5,298 of them in 2015, more than double the amount sold that year in Italy, which has a population more than 10 times the size of Denmark's. The figures suggest clean-energy vehicles still aren't attractive enough to compete without some form of subsidy. However, it turns out that those phenomenal sales figures had as much to do with convenience as with environmental concerns: electric car dealers were for a long time spared the jaw-dropping import tax of 180 percent that Denmark applies on vehicles fueled by a traditional combustion engine.

26 of 172 comments (clear)

  1. So... by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's all about price and market demand? If everyone who can afford an electric car already has one, of course the demand is going to drop.

    What drug-induced hallucinations do people teach in business schools? Infinite growth is impossible, once the growth phase is over the target should be a nearly flat equilibrium.

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    1. Re: So... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Denmark recently ended no-tax rules on "luxury" e-cars, so they are now also subject to the 180% registration fee (that is on top of 25% VAT, mind). Other than killing much of the original attraction, there's a psychological barrier to buying at 3x the price, what you neighbour got at 1x last year.

    2. Re: So... by Rei · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The data in the article is confusing - they talk about a 60,5% drop, yet they show a vastly more than 60,5% drop in their graph. Maybe the graph isn't a complete Q1?

      Adding up the 2015 figures, I get around 4600 EVs sold. In the same year in Denmark, 206998 cars were sold total in Denmark, so 2,22% of new vehicle sales were EVs. In the US in 2015, 114248 PEVs were sold, versus 17,5m total, so 0,65%. So even if Denmark's EV sales dropped 60,5%, they'd only just be equaling that of the US.

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    3. Re: So... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      After subsidies, you can get a new electric car for $15K-$18K. Looking right now I see a Leaf is less than $17K, and I believe that gets 120 miles range, which is enough for the large majority of commuters.

    4. Re: So... by Rei · · Score: 2

      Electric vehicles are 1800s technology.

      And internal combustion vehicles were first experimented with in the 1600s, and successfully implemented in the 1700s. Or if you account for all combustion-driven engines, not just internal, then you have to go all the wayback to the bloody 1st century AD.

      Of course, it's a stupid line of argument, because almost nothing about modern electric or combustion engines resembles that of their distant predecessors except from a very basic level.

      The same principles that work on toys work on full size vehicles. You could literally copy the design.

      And get a god-awful crappy EV based with horrible efficiency, range, mass and power. Just like what would happen if you tried to make a car with a bunch of lawnmower engines. A modern EV motor the size of a canteloupe can replace the entire engine of a typical sedan with the same acceleration characteristics (see the stats on, say, the EMRAX series).

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    5. Re: So... by Rei · · Score: 2

      And if they want something even worse than that, they could get a neighborhood-electric vehicle (cross between a car and a golf cart, usually closer to the latter ;) )

      Meanwhile, the rest of us care about replacing the general-purpose automobile, and hence support things that actually work towards these goals, including advances in battery technology and mass-scale production to drive down battery prices to at least remotely close to their raw material costs (ala Gigafactory).

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    6. Re: So... by KozmoStevnNaut · · Score: 4, Informative

      180% registration fee

      It's 150%, and only on the car's value above ~$16K. It's 105% below that value.

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    7. Re: So... by Gr8Apes · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There's also the minor issue that cars, especially Teslas, are expensive, and more so in Denmark with that minor tax tacked on. So how many people can really afford a $200K car that didn't already buy one last year? I wonder, about 176?

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    8. Re: So... by 0123456 · · Score: 2

      "After subsidies, you can get a new electric car for $15K-$18K."

      You can get a new Civic in that price range, too. And it goes a lot more than 120 miles on a single charge.

      Actually, last I looked, you could just about get two new Hyundais for that price, if you could actually find someone with two of the most basic model on the lot.

    9. Re: So... by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 2

      I'd pick an electric Nissan Versa over a Nissan Leaf any day of the week.

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    10. Re: So... by Wdomburg · · Score: 2

      The base leaf is $30,680. Minus a $7,500 federal tax credit and a $1,700 rebate from NYSERDA that would come to $21,480; that's $9,490 more than an entry level Versa. Even assuming an average fuel cost of $4 (well above current levels, and unlikely given trends in oil prices) that is enough money to buy fuel for 6-7 years of driving.

      But that tax credit is non-refundable, which means buyers with lower income will actually pay more. In fact about 45% of households pay no federal income tax, so would get no federal credit.

    11. Re: So... by KozmoStevnNaut · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah no, it doesn't work like that. For private imports, the tax is calculated based on fair market value.

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  2. Can someone give us the full story? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

    Why were the subsidies removed?

    Cheap, long range EVs are available now (e.g. the Renault Zoe) but I guess there needs to be more choice in the market for them to really sell well on their own. The new Nissan Leaf is due later this year, Tesla Model 3 probably late next year for Europe and a few others.

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    1. Re:Can someone give us the full story? by srmalloy · · Score: 5, Informative

      No 'subsidy' ever existed on EVs; rather, it was a tax incentive. Denmark has a huge tax on new cars, which can reach 180% of the car's value. EVs were exempted from this tax through the end of 2015; beginning in January of 2016, new EVs were assessed a 20% tax. In December 2015, as people rushed to avoid the looming tax change, 1,588 EVs were sold; the following month, 68 were sold. Last January, the tax on new EVs rose to 40%, and the tax reduction compared to conventional vehicles will be phased out completely by 2020.

      Because of the collapse in EV sales as a result of this (1,300 EVs were sold in Denmark in 2016, while Tesla alone sold 1,300 EVs in Denmark in December of 2015, before the tax exemption expired), Denmark is walking back the changes to an extent; the tax rate will remain 20% until there have been 5,000 EVs sold, or until the start of 2019, whichever comes first. At that point, the tax rate returns to 40%, rising to 65% in 2020, 90% in 2021, and 100% in 2022. In addition, there will be a new tax on the electricity used to charge EVs, both private and commercial.

      More details at electrek.co.

  3. Explanation by hackel · · Score: 2

    Can someone explain *why* a 180% import tax ever existed in the first place? It's not like Denmark has a large domestic auto industry it needs to protect. And I assume the fee is only for cars imported from outside the EU (not Denmark), right? I can't imagine they'd be that interested in artificially propping up the Swedish and German auto industries. I just don't understand this.

    Of course the electric vehicles should be subsidized in the form of reduced taxes, but completely eliminating them isn't the right answer either. Lower the duty to something like 20%, remove it for EVs, but still charge VAT for both.

    1. Re:Explanation by ottothecow · · Score: 4, Insightful
      No. All cars are taxed that much (except for cars sold below ~$12k which are only taxed at 105%) . It is not an import tax, but rather a registration tax, so it doesn't matter where the car comes from.

      The headline is pretty misleading though. All denmark is doing is applying the same tax to Teslas as it used to apply to other cars. For a while, Teslas in denmark were very "cheap". You could get a fancy Tesla without the tax for roughly the same price as a car with 1/3 of the sticker price.

      Given the tax is an insane 180%, it was never entirely about emissions. It was also about encouraging people not to own cars, cut down on driving (wear and tear == buying new cars), cut down on upgrading perfectly good cars, etc. It is heavy-handed social engineering. Prior to the Tesla, these cars were kind of an "oddball" thing. But with the Tesla, it kind of just let wealthy car buyers get a huge discount on something that is sold as a luxury vehicle in the rest of the world.

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    2. Re:Explanation by thegarbz · · Score: 3, Informative

      It was a flat tax on cars, nothing to do with propping up an industry. It's all about reducing ownership and driving people towards alternatives.

      That may be hard to grasp for the United States which has the highest car ownership per capita in the world (at least out of countries with more than 100,000 citizens). But it's a very Scandinavian thing to do. Denmark has half the car ownership per capita than USA. Driving makes up less than 60% of traffic on Danish roads. And more than 80% of Danes own a bicycle. 60% of people in Copenhagen commute via bicycle.

      That's the kind of thing this sort of tax aims for. It's also not unique to Demark. Several other countries have taxes to promote either green alternatives or traffic reduction. e.g. I paid 5600 EUR of tax on my small car in the Netherlands (based on emissions). That doesn't sound like much but given that the car was only 16000EUR in the first place, and that I also have 3200 EUR in sales tax as well as 600 EUR per year road taxes (based on petrol car, emissions and weight), cycling is an attractive alternative and when we moved here we reduced from 2 cars to 1. The Netherlands is fractionally above Denmark in car ownership.

      In Singapore you also have serious car taxes. It's a small island so keeping cars to a minimum is in everyone's interest. On top of 180% of the value of the car in just registration fees, there's also 20% sales tax, a carbon tax if you emit more than 185g/km CO2 (which is about to be reduced to 160g/km and have 4 other gasses added to it), oh and a Certificate of Entitlement to own a car will cost you $50,000 USD on top of all that. Net result, they have 1/7th of the car ownership rate of the USA despite being a relatively wealthy country. Cycling rates in Singapore are relatively low, but public transport usage is very high.

      If you have alternate infrastructure in place, a tax is a great way to get people to give up gas guzzlers.

    3. Re: Explanation by Krakadoom · · Score: 2

      It was essentially to protect the trade balance, since Denmark has to import all cars, to limit consumption during the oil crisis, and lastly to tax luxury goods, which is common in Denmark. Even if two out of three of those don't apply anymore, it's hard for politicians to cut tax revenue, and lowering the tax would cause massive losses for current car owners, both private and corporate, which is not popular.

      And the tax hasn't been 180 % for a few years now but 105/150 % depending on value. When it was lowered, a lot of car owners complained about it.

  4. Re:Import tax? by michelcolman · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's not an import tax but a registration tax. Applied to all cars, not just imported ones.

  5. Get the numbers right by KozmoStevnNaut · · Score: 5, Informative

    the jaw-dropping import tax of 180 percent that Denmark applies on vehicles fueled by a traditional combustion engine.

    No, goddammit.

    The tax is 105% on the value up to ~$16K, and 150% (used to be 180% until about a year ago) on the value above that. There are also adjustments to reward good fuel economy.

    Yes, the tax is high. But please get the numbers right.

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    1. Re:Get the numbers right by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      And calling it whatever you want is exactly what lead to republicans frothing at the mouth all over this post. Calling it whatever you want is what is causing people to compare it with tariffs. Calling it whatever you want causes wide spread confusion to those people who don't realise that Denmark doesn't build cars.

      You CAN call it whatever you want. But really if you want to have a sensible discussion you shouldn't.

  6. Re:better than expensive hydrocarbons by Rei · · Score: 3, Interesting

    In contrast, gasoline can provide high efficiency, low pollution power, with a small, cheap engine and catalytic converter.

    While they can achieve higher efficiency when operating only in their optimal power band, ICE vehicles typically operate at only about 20% efficiency in typical driving conditions. Meanwhile, a modern combined cycle natural gas plant will frequently achieve over 50% efficiency, and can even approach 60%. When combined with cogeneration (not an option for gasoline cars), efficiency can get into the 90s.

    From an emissions point, this is also wrong. Compared to coal, gasoline wins in respect to some pollutants (PM, and would win on SOx except additional power generation requires additional scrubbing under EPA regulations), is a draw in regards to some (NOx) and gets blown away in others (VOCs, CO, etc). Compared to natural gas, it's no contest, gasoline loses, and badly. Also, centralized power stations emit their pollutants at altitude and in less densely populations, rather than at ground level in densely populated areas.

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  7. Re:At that price lots of options by KozmoStevnNaut · · Score: 2, Informative

    The fine is to pay the registration fee, plus a fine on top, plus they confiscate the car, plus you may go to jail if you do it more than once.

    Also, number plates are centrally-registered, they would know pretty fucking quickly if a plate was fake.

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  8. Re:At that price lots of options by es330td · · Score: 4, Informative

    That is, if they could catch me to give me a ticket... :-)

    Catching a Tesla would be trival. An S is lightning fast for only a very short distance; a P100D can't even make one lap of the 14 mile Nürburgring at speed. All an officer has to do is chase until it goes into "limp" mode.

  9. Re:Import tax? by thegarbz · · Score: 2

    Not that any of this matters because the 180% is not an import tax, it's a registration tax and Denmark doesn't have a car industry they are protecting, but those are the same people making those comments for a reason:

    USA person: Look at them Europeans protecting their jobs with tariffs and taxes. We need that.
    USA person: You want me to pay how much more for my stuff? Why are you taxing the things I like. Screw you government!

    Meanwhile as neutral third parties we say all free trade agreements with any nation not an equal is a bad idea which will cost you in the long run.

  10. So much misinformation by Krakadoom · · Score: 3, Informative

    Hardly anything in that summary is accurate.

    Firstly, the nominal tax rate for vehicles is 150 % and that's only for the higher parts of the value of more expensive vehicles. Second, starting in 2016 taxes for electric vehicles started being gradually phased in. As such the tax on electric vehicles went from zero to at most 20 % of the tax on non-electric vehicles in 2016, plus there is a deduction on top of that effectively making anything cheaper than a Tesla still tax free (the tax system is progressive and value based, but the deductions are fixed value).

    A lot of vehicles were hoarded towards the end of the zero tax period ending in 2015, making the sales numbers artificially high by displacing sales that might otherwise have come in 2016 to 2015 due to the foreseen tax hike. A lot of those vehicles were bought to subsequently sell for profit once the taxes kicked in, which is evident in that many have since been sold or exported. In 2017 the tax rate rose to 40 %, though through deductions still pretty much only Teslas (and some expensive hybrids) are actually taxed.

    Lastly, since late 2016 and all the way up until mid April 2017 there have been very public political discussions about extending the tax breaks for electric vehicles. This means that during that time, only an idiot would have bought an electric car, knowing that it was highly likely for taxes to be cut on them again shortly. This is in fact what happened, and rates were lowered from 40 % back to 20 % for two more years. This makes sales naturally very weak in Q1 2017.

    So in short, you can't compare 2015 to 2016 or 2017 without taking into account what happened during that time politically and the market forces that drove the 2015 spike. Basically the article is bad, and you should feel bad. ;)

    Source: I drafted the legislation and can read.