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Life On Mars: Elon Musk Reveals Details of His Colonisation Vision

Elon Musk has put his Mars-colonization vision to paper, and you can read it for free. SpaceX's billionaire founder and CEO published the plan, which he unveiled at a conference in Mexico in September 2016, in the journal New Space. From a report: The paper outlines early designs of the gigantic spacecraft, designed to carry 100 passengers, that he hopes to construct. "The thrust level is enormous," the paper states. "We are talking about a lift-off thrust of 13,000 tons, so it will be quite tectonic when it takes off." Creating a fully self-sustained civilisation of around one million people -- the ultimate goal -- would take 40-100 years according to the plans. Before full colonisation takes place, though, Musk needs to entice the first pioneers to pave the way.

229 comments

  1. Not hard to find volunteers by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    I'm sure Musk could easily find thousands to initially travel to mars, even with a 50% survivability rate... just look at how many people applied for that contest that was a one-way mission.

    I myself would happily go, if they are really looking...

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I myself would happily go, if they are really looking...

      Why?

      Anon because I'm work related.

    2. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My wife won't let me. I have to stay here...

    3. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't tell her, just boogie.

    4. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think a lot of people aren't happy with their current lives, and would jump at the chance at being the first to go on a groundbreaking adventure, and be forever remembered as doing so.

    5. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Applying is one thing. Strapping in during the countdown is another.

    6. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It's not really an adventure if you are dead within 1-3 months.

      Going to Mars is not like going to the "Frontier" of old, where conditions may have been harsh, but ultimately survivable because the environment was fundamentally compatible with your biology.

    7. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by sycodon · · Score: 1

      Maybe that guy who robbed a bank to get away from his wife can go.

      Beats House arrest...with his wife.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    8. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by I+kan+Spl · · Score: 2

      A very significant percentage of people going to "the frontier of old" DID die within a short period of time.

      http://www.octa-trails.org/art...

      --
      My UID is prime and so is this number: 09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0.
    9. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why did people cross the ocean or explore the depths of the seas?

      Why not? If I had no family here, I'd gladly go too. But not everyone is an explorer, a lot of people are followers and that will ultimately be the majority of people on Mars in the future, just like most people here on Earth. They follow the explorers.

    10. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most important, make sure none of them are assholes!

    11. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It's not really an adventure if you are dead within 1-3 months.

      Going to Mars is not like going to the "Frontier" of old, where conditions may have been harsh, but ultimately survivable because the environment was fundamentally compatible with your biology.

      When you consider the levels of technology involved in the two cases, actually it is. I'm just back from Iceland, a place where in 871 CE the first Norsemen landed to find no trees, and the Arctic fox as the only animal. Everything else had to be brought in. And not on the high-tech ships Columbus used centuries in their future, but more like rowboats with sails. Once there, they had to build everything they needed out of stone and driftwood. That gave them the toehold it took to advance their hunting skills so that whale meat and whale bone could be added to their usable resources.

      Today we have robot emissaries already crawling around on potential new worlds, pre-experiencing what humans will have to face. Knowing what awaits us on Mars, including being able to test manufacturing essentials, beats lack of atmosphere. In any given era, it is human nature to take any frontier we can take.

    12. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by ausekilis · · Score: 1

      If my playing of Oregon Trail is historically accurate, 98% died of dysentery.

    13. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

      Or make sure half of them are and make sure they all sign waivers saying the understand that all rooms are monitored by cameras and they agree to be televised back on earth...

      That was a joke answer but actually I think that would be pretty amazing for the world be to able to follow along with the lives of all people on Mars, and I'll be most volunteers would agree to it.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    14. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      99% of the people who applied would either not go if they were really given the chance or they would freak the fuck out during the launch or on the way and have to be terminated to keep the mentally sound astronauts safe.

      Most of the people who voted were kids who watch too many movies and who had no clue what a journey and existence like that would entail. You aren't going to find many qualified candidates amongst the general population, they would have to be from the select few astronauts or people who have been training to be astronauts their entire lives.

    15. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by WrongMonkey · · Score: 2

      In any given era, it is human nature to take any frontier we can take.

      How many people are living in Antarctica? Actual colonizing: growing their own crops, raising children, manufacturing their own essentials, etc. How about interior Greenland? Gobi desert? How can you say that we're ready to colonize Mars when we haven't even colonized all the frontiers on this planet?

    16. Re: Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Get your assholes to Mars!

    17. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by WrongMonkey · · Score: 2

      Not really. Survival rate on the Oregon Trail was about the same the rest of the world at the time. As your own link points out, the cholera outbreak along the Oregon Trail was part of a worldwide pandemic. Cities were hit as hard, if not harder, than frontier settlers.

    18. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Kierthos · · Score: 1

      The difference is, Iceland still had breathable air. Mars is notoriously lacking in that.

      I'm not saying a Mars colony is impossible. But you cannot compare a trek to Iceland 12 centuries ago to a trek to Mars now because, ultimately, the environment in Iceland was not inherently inimical to human life.

      Shelter on Mars? Reasonably solvable.
      Energy? Reasonably solvable.
      Air? You can't skip back to Earth every time it gets a little low on that.

      That, more than anything else, is going to be the problem.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
    19. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The scope of your thinking ability is hilariously tiny. Space travel is NOTHING like any travel done on Earth at any point in history. Earth has air, water, food, RESOURCES. Space has NONE of that. If something goes wrong while you are on Earth, chances are good you can shrug it off and move on. If something goes wrong while you are in space or on Mars, you're dead.

    20. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      I'm sure Musk could easily find thousands to initially travel to mars, even with a 50% survivability rate...

      Sure, staffing the first ship is easy.

      Staffing the second ship, after everyone has seen what happened to all the people on the first one, however... that will be more challenging.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    21. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Air isn't much of a problem. As Slashdot pundits are fond of pointing out, the entire planet is covered with perchlorates, which are an excellent source of oxygen. Curiosity has found nitrogen too.

    22. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Mars One planned to fund the project by producing a reality show.

      Too bad when it gets cancelled.

    23. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by blindseer · · Score: 2

      How can you say that we're ready to colonize Mars when we haven't even colonized all the frontiers on this planet?

      We can say this because it may in fact be easier to get to Mars and create a colony there than some places on Earth.

      By "easier" that does not mean only technologically or logistically but also politically. Settling some places on Earth can mean getting your house bombed by someone that doesn't want you to live there, that's a political hurdle. Technologically it can mean things like trying to get to the Antarctic interior means battling harsh winds. We can (quite likely) land something on a windless (relatively) Mars a lot easier than on Antarctica. Continuing the Antarctic example there would be political problems of putting a permanent settlement on the ice there, there are stations there now and they took a lot of negotiations to get them there. Creating a settlement with families living there is a different matter.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    24. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait. What did the foxes eat if they were the only animal?

    25. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by religionofpeas · · Score: 1

      We can say this because it may in fact be easier to get to Mars and create a colony there than some places on Earth.

      http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/88...

    26. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait. What did the foxes eat if they were the only animal?

      This ^^^ ... was going to ask the same thing.

    27. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1, Funny
      No need to sign waivers. Once you stepped on the colony ship, you would have no freedom what-so-ever. If Martian Warlord Elon Musk builds a zero-g Thunderdome and draws lots for death matches, what are you going to do? Sue him?

      Actually, that sounds pretty awesome. Maybe I'm could support this whole plan after all.

    28. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1

      You'll be forever remembered like the Jonestown cult. A bunch of gullible idiots killed by their ego-maniacal leader.

    29. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not sure about Greenland; but Antarctica is off limits due to treaties where compliance hasn't broken down. If a private citizen tried to colonize Antarctica, all of the signatories would oppose it and they'd probably back that up with guns. Just knowing that is enough to discourage anybody with the resources to actually do it.

    30. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fuck Elon Musk and his qualifications. I'm 3-D printing my own rocket and I'll go on my own without needing his stupid neoliberal ass.

    31. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      I was thinking the same thing, but I'm guessing that he meant the only land animal. There's no reason that there wouldn't have been birds, and the foxes probably preyed on the birds. Checking, I see that they also eat fish, and seal pups, so it's not unreasonable to see how they survived.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    32. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      The air argument is even sillier than that. Terrestrial planets are roughly 1/3 oxygen by mass. The fraction's a little higher for Mars due to its smaller iron core. The only thing needed to extract oxygen from rock is energy, and any serious smelting operation (likely based on molten oxide electrolysis) is going to produce huge amounts as a waste product. And any sort of settlement will be near ice deposits substantial enough to refuel the rockets for return, so you could just electrolyze a bit more water for breathing oxygen. There's no need to scrape perchlorates from some long-dry lakebed.

      As for nitrogen, the atmosphere of Mars is 2% nitrogen. That's thin, but there's an entire planet covered with it, compressing a bit for human use won't make a dent in it.

    33. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      Knowing human nature, the final episode where everybody suffocates as they shut off the oxygen will get by far the best ratings of the series. Maybe that'll make enough money to fund the next expedition.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    34. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Maxthod · · Score: 1

      Iceland, a place where in 871 CE the first Norsemen landed to find no trees, and the Arctic fox as the only animal.

      Hard to disagree more on that sentence than I am. (I agree with the point you are trying to make.)

      1. In 871 it was Medieval Warm Period (950 to 1250), same for Greenland with green and Vinland with natural grapes. North Atlantic shore and Europe was pretty hot.

      2. There was trees in Iceland but Viking (Norse) communities cut them all in the first 100 years. About same known effect as Easter Island because of insularity. (Icelanders are not happy of this part of there story and let us admit that we still do same, but Earth is longer to deplete.) Juste add that there is not enough light to grow back forest faster than terribly slow : its 60 north.

      3. Ocean around was super full of resources : fat and calories that feed part of Europe starting that period. Even later, after 1534, Jacques Cartier said that you can walk on the back of the cod fish from Europe to Terre-Neuve.

    35. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Bird eggs.

    36. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      The native 'trees you speak of were scrub butch, useless for any kind of construction, so they were rapidly cleared for sheep pasture and used as fire fuel. Lumber trees were then brought in and established in a few sheltered spots; in most of Iceland it's too windy. Even today, forestation projects look like Christmas tree farms, little stands of conifers all the same age.

      For centuries, the only building materials were stone, sod, driftwood and whalebone.

    37. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The cost to a given mass to Iceland from mainland Europe (even income-inflated and purchasing power parity) was much lower than getting the same mass out of Earth's gravity well today. Anyone small group of people could build a longboat with the wealth they possessed. Not so with spacecraft. The weather might kill you, or you might thirst or starve to death on a longboat, but you are guaranteed to be killed by cosmic radiation on a trip to Mars without adding so much shielding as to make the project cost prohibitive. The ocean surrounding Iceland provides local food. Not so on Mars. A single person could conceivably take a rowboat or canoe and make it to Iceland and survive there indefinitely. A single person is much more unlikely to be able to build a spacecraft, travel to Mars, and live there indefinitely without resupply. Mars is incompatible with human physiology and much more isolated from Earth than the South Pole station.

    38. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Only energy?
      Dust those cobwebs off your brain.
      Remember that you were shown formulas for reactions some time back.
      You need a reducing agent as well.
      That kind of adds to the size of the industrial base you need to establish before you can start producing your own oxygen.

    39. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Iceland had trees. They cut them down to make houses and boats.

    40. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      Some of the perchlorates will release oxygen dimers after simple heating. The resulting gas wont be immediately breathable though. It will likely release other, toxic gasses that will need to be captured and resequestered (like chlorine, etc.)

      You need a reducing agent to turn all that iron oxide into something useful.

      In terms of processing CO2 into breathable air, and using it in general...

      About 9 years ago, a story ran here on slashdot.
      https://science.slashdot.org/s...

      One liter of this substance can store 89 liters of CO2, and it is very selective, and very durable (It can be reprocessed with heat many times). This would be much cheaper to use than pumps which have moving parts, have a propensity to get clogged with dust, etc. This you just put in a porous bag and hang up outside for a few days, then take it back in and process it.

      Combine that with advances in electrochemical reformation of alcohols from compressed CO2 and water, and a catalyst, (https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/16/10/18/194231/co2-to-ethanol-in-one-step-with-cheap-catalyst) and you get a useful feedstock for many industrial purposes, including as a feedstock for several plastics, like polyethylene.

      For breathable oxygen, it seems that blasting the CO2 with the right kind of laser light produces free O2 molecules.
      https://motherboard.vice.com/e...

      In these reactions, the only consumables are CO2, and electrical energy.

      It will be the energy costs that are the roadblock.

    41. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by physick · · Score: 1

      But Viking technology was robust, wood, stone, cloth, earth. They could build shelters in the ground, survive days without food, and there were things they could eat. On mars, everything is going to be fragile:

      a tiny hole in insulation means no air, you're dead in minutes
      a tiny fire that destroys a computer or air purifying system controller, you're dead in minutes
      a door/hatch jams open, dead in.... well you get the idea.

      And everything will be monitored and controlled by software, and we know how robust that is. This will require redundancy on a scale never before used even in space. On satellites, where I used to work, redundancy was there to save you 50 million dollars, but here it would have to save you hundreds or thousands of lives.
      And the first people there will die early. There will be accidents. There may be murders. Even if they all live they will grow old. Is there going to be a care home on mars? Or do you just let them die when they cannot work any longer but consume resources? Or do you hope they've built a return ship by then?

    42. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Indeed - but not "The only thing needed to extract oxygen from rock is energy".

    43. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      Yes, energy...you need heat and electricity. You do not need a reducing agent. The cheap availability of coal makes reduction by carbon a common approach here on Earth, but it is not the only way of solving the problem, and isn't even used for all smelting operations on Earth...aluminum, magnesium, and several other metals are produced largely or entirely by electrochemical processes, and molten oxide processes are even being looked at for iron production.

    44. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Edit: Scrub birch

    45. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      The best thing about a Mars colony is that it would have a basic income because there would be nothing to do there except play video games.

    46. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...Norsemen landed to find no trees, and the Arctic fox as the only animal

      What was the the fox feeding on? Norsemen?

    47. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Birds that flew in from elsewhere on holiday

    48. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by dbIII · · Score: 1

      aluminum, magnesium

      Perhaps you should look around a bit and find out why both of those metals are incredibly expensive to produce. Also look at what else is involved in those processes (hint: it's not just energy).
      Doing it electrochemically is not so easy, and indeed involves a lot more chemicals than you seem to be thinking of.

      are even being looked at for iron production

      Citation please.

    49. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      Those metals are not "incredibly expensive". Energy intensive, yes, but...oh, what was it I said you needed?

      And yes, the specific aluminum process widely used here on Earth uses consumable carbon electrodes, but that is a matter of convenience rather than a necessary part of the process, the actual process is driven by electrochemistry. The only thing required to extract oxygen and reduced metals from rock is in fact energy, in the form of electricity.

      http://lmgtfy.com/?q=molten+ox...

      Look, this is not a difficult to understand set of reactions. If you'd do a few minutes of research on the subject, you'd see how foolish your stubborn refusal to admit this makes you appear...it's fundamentally no different from electrolyzing water for hydrogen and oxygen. There is no reducing agent required, anywhere, and when done with oxides, oxygen is a direct product of the process.

    50. Re:Not hard to find volunteers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      if you support it with skill you oppose it, er no thanks

  2. Obligatory Futurama by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

    I don't want to live on this planet anymore.

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  3. Spacecraft Ascension by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As Capt. Denniinger I would like to welcome you aboard the spacecraft Ascension...

  4. Internet by therealspacebug · · Score: 1

    No thanks, not until they can fix Gibabit internet connection.

    1. Re:Internet by fox171171 · · Score: 1

      Yeah, ummm... even when they get the speed up, the latency will always be a bitch.

  5. I think this will work by 110010001000 · · Score: 1, Interesting

    This will work. All we need to do is mine and asteroid for space dust and fill the hull with it. When we land on Mars we will construct caves and live in them to get around the radiation problem. Anyone else have any ideas on how to colonize Mars?

    1. Re:I think this will work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You can make a Highlander II shield too. But there should be a way to have just enough radiation for esthetically and anatomically interesting human mutants. Then smoking will be allowed in the mutants bar.
      Allowing a lot of viable mutations is a problem we haven't thought of tackling yet, perhaps what's needed is a universal cure for cancer which will then allow us to have cool deformities and weird body parts. If there's no cancer anymore smoking next to the air vents won't be a big deal either, win-win.

    2. Re:I think this will work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You cynical cunt. You make several hundred posts excoriating Musk and SpaceX, and suddenly you pretend to be interested in what he is doing? Fuck you.

  6. Why are we doing this? by rsilvergun · · Score: 1, Informative

    Are there valuable minerals and resources on Mars? Because besides that I can't think of a good reason. Overpopulation isn't really a problem once nations modernize. In fact, underpopulation is. Don't we have better things to be doing then this?

    --
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    1. Re:Why are we doing this? by HornWumpus · · Score: 2

      Low G retirement. Live to be 150, maybe. The moon might be better, but we really don't know what the ideal G load for old farts raised in 1 G is.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    2. Re:Why are we doing this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it's there.

    3. Re:Why are we doing this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I believe Musk's stated reason is that it's good for the long-term survival of mankind to not have all of our eggs in one basket. It could take centuries to create a colony on Mars that is self-sufficient enough to live on indefinitely should Earth get stricken by an extinction level event. If we wait until an unavoidable threat to Earth is on the visible horizon, there might not be enough time left to build such a colony. Even if we ignore all that, however, a perfectly valid reason for going to Mars is simply because we can. Humans dedicate time and resources to all manner of endeavors that serve only to stoke our collective egos over what we're able to accomplish. If Musk and a ton of other people want to go to Mars simply because they think it would be a cool adventure, then that's good enough reason for them to do it.

    4. Re:Why are we doing this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How are you going to smelt these minerals? Burn coal?

    5. Re:Why are we doing this? by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1

      150 years as corporate slave in an environment more hostile that Antarctica. Yippee!

    6. Re:Why are we doing this? by painandgreed · · Score: 2

      How are you going to smelt these minerals? Burn coal?

      Electric arc furnaces. Probably driven by solar but nuclear might also be a possibility. Smelting such on industrial scales would create free oxygen to add to the atmosphere. If they could find a source of hydrogen or carbon which seem fairly rare on Mars, that could be turned into more water and carbon dioxide. In long term, it might make a bit of difference to the Martian atmosphere, but pretty much only because it is already so thin that it would be considered a medium vacuum here on Earth.

    7. Re:Why are we doing this? by Jeremi · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Don't we have better things to be doing then this?

      What, like invade third-world countries that pissed us off? Or sponsor another iteration of the Olympics? Or look at amusingly captioned photos of catst?

      In a lot of cases, the potential benefits of doing something are impossible to know in advance, but maybe you just do it anyway because it looks like it would be a cool thing to do. This is one of those cases. If you don't think it's a promising avenue, go do something else instead; nobody will stop you.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    8. Re:Why are we doing this? by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

      Why would you expect that gravity has a significant impact on lifespan? Telomere shortening looks like the major impactor, but it's not clear to me whether or not that's followed or trailed by cancer.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    9. Re:Why are we doing this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You seem to be labouring under the delusion that Elon is a smart man. He is tenacious, not intelligent.

    10. Re:Why are we doing this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Musk also says that we exist in a simulation. If that's the case, then there is nothing to protect. We are all just simulated so it doesn't matter.

    11. Re:Why are we doing this? by Altrag · · Score: 1

      They'd need a way to protect the atmosphere from solar wind and other dissipation mechanics before that would even be a relevant consideration. Pumping O2 or CO2 into the Martian atmosphere would quickly be equivalent to pumping it into space, and not especially useful.

      Big problem is that Mars has essentially no gravitational field, which we presume is due to its core having cooled enough that its basically solid and not rotating. There's not really anything we can do about that. Bad movies aside, we don't really have a way to recharge a planet's core.

      I did see a suggestion somewhere that we could build a really powerful magnet, put it in a spaceship and have it sit between Mars and the sun, with the idea that it would deflect a wide enough cone of solar wind to effectively protect the planet in the same way that a natural magnetic field would (I guess sans the auroras.) Of course, exactly how to build, launch and maintain such a ship was an exercise left to the reader :P..

    12. Re:Why are we doing this? by painandgreed · · Score: 1

      That's why it's all about industrial amounts. Mars is only losing a few grams of atmosphere a second to space. Once they really begin to start building, the net result will be positive once they are making more than 3000 kg of iron a day. Before that, they'll probably be sequestering such for use in tunnels, sealed habitats, and rockets anyway. What's released to the atmosphere will probably just be benefitial waste unless they start doing serious terraforming stuff like atmosphere processing plants like we saw in Aliens.

    13. Re:Why are we doing this? by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Cardio built for 1 G could have an easy job in 1/6. But there is no actual data for low G and very little (a few mouse lifespans IIRC) for zero.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    14. Re:Why are we doing this? by cjameshuff · · Score: 2

      The gravitation on Mars has nothing whatsoever to do with the temperature of the core, and is about 0.38 times that of Earth. The rate of atmospheric loss is negligible over human timescales, it took billions of years for it to thin to today's state and Mars supported long-lived bodies of liquid water for billions of years. And as for radiation, the current atmosphere of Mars already provides about 2-3 times the shielding that Earth's magnetosphere does, and shielding human habitats doesn't require covering the entire planet with a magnetic field.

    15. Re:Why are we doing this? by braindrainbahrain · · Score: 1

      Everytime the phrase "extinction level event" comes up, I am reminded how much money this Indigogo campaign was able to raise.

    16. Re:Why are we doing this? by dbIII · · Score: 1

      They'd need a way to protect the atmosphere from solar wind and other dissipation mechanics before that would even be a relevant consideration. Pumping O2 or CO2 into the Martian atmosphere would quickly be equivalent to pumping it into space, and not especially useful.

      As an aside, what you mentioned has been thought of for so long that it was a plot point of the John Carter of Mars books. The mythical Martians there had machines that just kept on throwing out oxygen, but eventually they stopped working and it was all lost to space.

    17. Re:Why are we doing this? by Altrag · · Score: 1

      Yep, I totally mistyped that. I meant it has little (no?) magnetic field due to little or no core movement which in turn indicates a cold core (at least, cold enough to not have a significant molten mantle for things to move around in.)

      Probably makes the context of the rest of my comment a little less absurd!

    18. Re:Why are we doing this? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Ten guys, two women.

    19. Re:Why are we doing this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While I'm certainly not opposed to colonizing other worlds, wouldn't it make more sense, from a survival standpoint, to colonize space itself? Mars isn't really providing much that space doesn't anyway, except a giant gravity well to overcome. If we can learn to live, work, and manufacture in space itself, we'll never need planets again. Then all we need is a way to survive while traveling between stars (presuming we won't have a better energy source) and we'll be effectively indestructible, save for the ending of the universe itself.

    20. Re:Why are we doing this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Its hard to imagine any event, short of the earth literally being destroyed (debris may not be too health for Mars either), that leaves the Earth less habitable than Mars. Any tech that would allow an independent martian colony could equally be deployed at lower cost on Earth to provide, for example, self sufficient subterranean or undersea settlements for disaster recovery.

      Alternatively, and perhaps more usefully, we could focus on space habitats rather than martian colonisation as this technology also enables long term space missions (generation ships), safeguarding not only against the death of the earth but even the death of our star.

      Ultimately, it may all be moot. Nobody knows how long a civilisation like ours usually lasts, the greatest threat to us is us.

      The above said, a martian colony would be fucking cool!

  7. The ultimate fantasy of the rich by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why else do you think all the billionaires are pursuing stuff like life extension and rocketry? They want to live forever and not with you, peasants.

    1. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Why else do you think all the billionaires are pursuing stuff like life extension and rocketry? They want to live forever and not with you, peasants.

      This is exactly correct. It's been true throughout all of human history.

    2. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      You mean that they want the species to live. That's the important part; Musk is deeply concerned about the survival and prosperity of humanity as a whole. That's part of why one of his big projects is electric cars and another is solar panels. Heck, even his rocketry architecture is done with sustainability in mind; SpaceX's next generation of engine, the Raptor, uses methane. This is for two reasons: first, it is easy to produce on Mars. But second, it is easy to produce on Earth using the same process so one can in the long-run have carbon neutral rockets. And if you talk to the people pushing for life extension, they want it for *everyone*. I'm amazed how there are many billionaires who get private islands and similar junk, but the vitriol is somehow reserved for those who are actually trying to help.

    3. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      And if you talk to the people pushing for life extension, they want it for *everyone*.

      That's a noble idea, but it's the ultra-wealthy who will decide.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    4. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Many goods, like cell phones and TVs start off just for the wealthy. Their prices go down over time and they become available to everyone. In the early 1990s there were were people worried about how there would be a permanent underclass made up of people who could not afford internet access.

    5. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      This is not about availability, this is about who decides which rules will not only be made, but enforced.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    6. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Huh? I don't follow what you mean at all. Enforcing what rules? Are you imagining that we're going to have life extension technology but there will be laws outlining who can get it?

    7. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Are you imagining that we're going to have life extension technology but there will be laws outlining who can get it?

      That's how capitalism works. Are you imagining that when we get life extension technology, we will all join hands, run off into the forest together and abandon capitalism?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    8. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Uh, what? I don't know how you are defining "capitalism" but it seems you are using it in a very nonstandard way. Look again at the internet and TV and cell phone examples: people *bought* the goods in question. As more people bought the goods in question, the goods became cheaper (both due to economies of scale and due to research making them cheaper). Eventually many people could afford them. Why do you think life extension will be any different?

    9. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      As more people bought the goods in question, the goods became cheaper (both due to economies of scale and due to research making them cheaper). Eventually many people could afford them. Why do you think life extension will be any different?

      Who said it will be different? It will simply be so expensive that most people won't be able to afford it for the foreseeable future. And it will be kept that way artificially if necessary, so as to kill off as many undesirables as possible.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    10. Re:The ultimate fantasy of the rich by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Ok. So let's be clear. First of all, you have dropped your claim that this is somehow related to "capitalism" but are now claiming that the technologies will be kept artificially expensive but haven't explained how that will happen. Moreover, this presumes that a) that people will have the ability to keep them expensive while history suggests that barring a few rare exceptions, cartels for technologies almost invariably fail or fail after a few years b) that the people in charge will be willing to kill off many other people in a way that causes them to *get less money*. That means you are presuming that people are not only sociopathic but more willing to part with their money if it means more poor people will be killed. What evidence do you have for this whatsoever? Moreover, what at all makes you think Elon Musk thinks this way other than your own reflexive cynicism and desire to dislike the rich?

  8. It sure does take a lot of hype by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    ...to fuel the Elon Musk money machine. You are all fools.

  9. All we have to do is... by pastafazou · · Score: 2

    It is a little cold, but we can warm it up. It has a very helpful atmosphere, which, being primarily CO2 with some nitrogen and argon and a few other trace elements, means that we can grow plants on Mars just by compressing the atmosphere.

    Just by compressing the atmosphere...? How do you compress an entire planet's atmosphere?

    • 1. Fly To Mars
    • 2. Compress atmosphere using ?
    • 3. Profit
    1. Re:All we have to do is... by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      eh, pump some atmosphere into an enclosed pressurized greenhouse

    2. Re:All we have to do is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Mars atmosphere is at 6 mBar. The energy requirements to pump the space (which will leak) will greatly exceed anything you'll be getting from solar. With unlimited nuclear energy then this becomes practical, but if the pumps break then you're fucked. Pumps break all the time. We can't even keep pumps on ship and oil rigs running reliably, how on earth are you going to manage to do it on Mars???????

    3. Re:All we have to do is... by 110010001000 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Every "colonizing Mars" plan has these holes. People say "create an atmosphere" or "dig caves" to live in. With what? There is no Home Depot on Mars. How do you create an atmosphere? How do you keep it when there is no magnetosphere? It is a mystery! But who cares - we are going to MARS!

    4. Re:All we have to do is... by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Bring extra pumps!

      Signed,
      Space Nutter

    5. Re:All we have to do is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Compress atmosphere using ?

      A sealed structure and a compressor?

      The point isn't to compress over the entire planetary surface, you know.

    6. Re:All we have to do is... by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      solar panels on Mars get about a third the energy they do on earth. so one just needs 3X the solar panels to get a job done, eh? your first claim is meaningless.

      and then you assume no redundant systems, no spare parts, no resupply of a colony until they can make their own things....perhaps by using solar energy, since there won't be any complaints of an array that is "too big", what with all the unused real estate....

    7. Re:All we have to do is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      +1 Informative !!!

    8. Re:All we have to do is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      how on earth are you going to manage to do it on Mars???????

      How on Mars you mean.

    9. Re:All we have to do is... by painandgreed · · Score: 1

      Every "colonizing Mars" plan has these holes. People say "create an atmosphere" or "dig caves" to live in. With what? There is no Home Depot on Mars. How do you create an atmosphere? How do you keep it when there is no magnetosphere? It is a mystery! But who cares - we are going to MARS!

      Perhaps if there was a company that created boring machines to make tunnels, like a Boring Company. Then smelt the iron and other metals from the oxides on Mars to finish the tunnel interiors, and use the left over oxygen to help fill the newly built tunnels.

    10. Re:All we have to do is... by Spy+Handler · · Score: 1

      Mars atmosphere is at 6 mBar. The energy requirements to pump the space (which will leak) will greatly exceed anything you'll be getting from solar. With unlimited nuclear energy then this becomes practical, but if the pumps break then you're fucked. Pumps break all the time. We can't even keep pumps on ship and oil rigs running reliably, how on earth are you going to manage to do it on Mars???????

      No, if a pump breaks I'm not fucked. The habitat is not like a helicopter where if the motor dies you fall and die. It's more like a scuba tank, you pump it up once and it stays pressurized without any intervention on your part. You would only need to run the pump to replace air lost through airlock operation. If you have a problem with the pump, stop using the airlock until it's fixed.

      And you would have more than one pump obviously.

      People have been living in airtight pressurized vessels in orbit for decades. They're called "space stations". Why do you think it can't be done on Mars?

      It would actually be easier to build on Mars in some respects because you can just dig a bunker into the side of a mountain and you'll be surrounded by earthen walls that provide immense structural support.

    11. Re:All we have to do is... by Altrag · · Score: 1

      No serious person would suggest creating an atmosphere these days. Maybe they would have in the 50s or 60s but our knowledge of the planet (and in particular its lack of magnetosphere as you mentioned) has improved a lot since then.

      For everything else though, much of it does depend on us being able to find and refine minerals and ores on the planet. It might not be a Home Depot, but it should allow a colony to be plenty self-sufficient if we can figure that one out, in the same way that they didn't ship all materials forever from Europe when they discovered the new world. We just learned to work with what was here when we arrived for the most part. (Of course in that case, we had natives to help show us the way.. On Mars we're going to have to rely entirely on science. But luckily, science is a lot better now than it was in the 15th century.)

    12. Re:All we have to do is... by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      solar panels on Mars get about a third the energy they do on earth. so one just needs 3X the solar panels to get a job done, eh? your first claim is meaningless.

      Yeah, but in that case you'd need a company with solar technology and battery technology for this to be feasible, and also has the motivation to take on a task like this... oh wait. Hmm.

    13. Re:All we have to do is... by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      Every "colonizing Mars" plan has these holes. People say "create an atmosphere" or "dig caves" to live in. With what? There is no Home Depot on Mars. How do you create an atmosphere? How do you keep it when there is no magnetosphere? It is a mystery! But who cares - we are going to MARS!

      Man, you're thinking way too limited! You identified the problem but thought small with the solutions. The first thing to do is to bury a lot of metal at the martian core so that it creates a magnetosphere, then you create an atmosphere (with compression?) that won't just get blown away.

      Yeah man, MARS!!!!

    14. Re:All we have to do is... by dbIII · · Score: 1

      No serious person would suggest creating an atmosphere these days. Maybe they would have in the 50s or 60s

      I mentioned it elsewhere but Edgar Rice Burroughs used the impracticality of it as a plot point in 1912 in his "Princess of Mars" serial with the breathable atmosphere being lost to space very shortly after oxygen generating machines broke down. He kept track of various things in scientific circles but I'm not sure where he got it from.

      Perhaps it was just a plot device to explain why Mars is dead at the time of writing but not in his story set some decades earlier, since due to spectroscopy the astronomers in 1912 knew that Mars did not have an atmosphere like Earth's.

    15. Re:All we have to do is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perhaps if there was a company that created boring machines to make tunnels, like a Boring Company. Then smelt the iron and other metals from the oxides on Mars to finish the tunnel interiors, and use the left over oxygen to help fill the newly built tunnels.

      Digging a tunnel to Mars is definitely a genius idea! It would shield the voyage from radiation and we cold pump air into it. Maybe even connect Earth and Mars atmospheres and get a jumpstart on terraforming that sumbitch!

  10. Why Not? by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    Because it's the ultimate in real exploration and a frontier needing a million problems to be solved, both technical and physical.

    I wouldn't expect to ever come back again; I wouldn't really care. Though I'm sure eventually some people would be able to return I'd think that would be pretty rough with years spent in the lower gravity of Mars.

    I could easily turn the question around though, and say - I can't imagine not wanting to go, so why NOT go? It makes no sense to me, for any reason.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Why Not? by WrongMonkey · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Have you served on a submarine? Have you overwintered in Antarctica? Have you worked on an off shore oil rig?

      If not, then how can you say that you want to go to Mars and never come back when you don't even know what its like to live and work on the extremities of this planet?

    2. Re:Why Not? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This. Anyone who isn't an astronaut who says they want to go to Mars is full of shit. They are fabricating this "cool" adventure in their heads without understanding that a real mission would not be cool, nor would it be very adventurous. It would be months stuck aboard a tiny can where even the smallest problem means death for everyone. If they reach Mars without dying, they then have to struggle to survive every single day on a ball of dirt doing mundane shit, never being able to come back to Earth to see friends, family, travel, go to the beach, go skiing, go biking, sit around playing video games or any of a million things available only on Earth that they take for granted and can never do again.

      I guarantee that if somehow someone like "SuperKendra" actually made it aboard a spacecraft headed to Mars, they would start freaking the fuck out the instant they launched.

    3. Re:Why Not? by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

      The points you make are quite irrelevant to wanting to go live on Mars.

      I have lived in extreme conditions and/or small spaces for a week or so at a time. But I don't think having done so lends any weight to the choice of going to live on Mars or not. You have no idea what living conditions will even be like, and simply because of the need to grow your own food and the need to be outside often for construction or research, it's inherently different from the cases you list. McMurdo is closest but even then they aren't doing a lot of building during the winter where on Mars you'd have no choice.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    4. Re:Why Not? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have served on SSBNs and there can be NO COMPARISON. Why? Well, if shit breaks you can get spare parts. Low on food? Set course for a place that has food. Low on air? Simply make more (Electrolysis) or snorkel or simply surface. Got a fire? Lots of water to put it out.

      Any of that shit happens in space you're just dead.

    5. Re:Why Not? by WrongMonkey · · Score: 2

      I have lived in extreme conditions and/or small spaces for a week or so at a time. But I don't think having done so lends any weight to the choice of going to live on Mars or not.

      You are absolutely right to think that whatever camping trip that you went on lends no weight to your argument. The fact that you would even bring that up shows how laughable little experience you have to make any relevant judgement.

      need to be outside

      The hypothetical colonists on Mars will NEVER go outside in any meaningful sense. You will be living in a cave, monitoring the robots that do the actual surface work. Do you think that being coal miner sounds like a lot fun? Because that will be your existence, 24/7. If you've watch video feeds from the rovers, you've already seen as much of the Martian surface as a colonist.

    6. Re:Why Not? by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I know all of that but it doesn't want to make me go any less. It's just part of the risk it takes to do something really important for the species.

      The fact that you are unwilling to take these risks means very little to those of us that have evaluated and accept them.

      The fact is I've always had a high tolerance for risk and have done many quite risky things in my life (including some that could have eded in death) for a variety of reasons, so I simply do place the same weighting on risk that you do.

      You are placing way to much emphasis on your own reactions to understand how others truly feel about it.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    7. Re:Why Not? by SuperKendall · · Score: 0

      You are absolutely right to think that whatever camping trip that you went on

      Ignorant and unimaginative.

      The hypothetical colonists on Mars will NEVER go outside in any meaningful sense.

      As I said, quite simply ignorant. You apparently have no idea what would be done on a martian colony and have not thought about it your whole life as I have.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    8. Re:Why Not? by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Of course I'm ignorant about Mars colonies. Just like I'm ignorant about dragons and magic. Because they are things that only exist in people's imaginations. I don't care if you've fantasized about martian colonies your whole life. Some people fantasize about dragons their whole lives, but that makes those people less realistic, not more credible.

    9. Re: Why Not? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Do you also know that after 3 months in the ISS, astronauts come back unable to walk by themselves and need weeks of exercise to recover their strength despite the exercises they do ? Do you really think colonizing mars in these conditions is feasible ? Any plan that doesn't address this (and protection against radiations) is just a sweet SciFi dream.

    10. Re:Why Not? by Gavagai80 · · Score: 2

      There are a lot of people who enjoy wintering in Antarctica and serving on submarines. Probably a million of them out of 7 billion people (that's 1/700).

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    11. Re:Why Not? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The dogs bark, but the caravan passes onward....

    12. Re:Why Not? by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      While colonists would obviously spend most of their time inside, there's nothing preventing them from taking trips to the surface. If you think the radiation is too extreme for occasional visits, note that a number of people endured even harsher radiation conditions on the moon. Yes their cancer risk in old age will increase, but these are people taking much worse risks already.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    13. Re:Why Not? by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1

      Have you ever watched videos of astronauts on EVA missions? Its not a relaxing stroll on the beach. They are still confined to an environmentally sealed personal vehicle with their every movement under constant supervision. Watch Chris Hadfield's TED talk about how he was blinded and almost died on spacewalk. If that still sounds like a fun way to unwind outside, then maybe you are crazy enough to go Mars.

    14. Re:Why Not? by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      I didn't think it was supposed to be a "fun way to unwind outside." If that's the sort of person who thinks that's what Mars will be like, then it doesn't sound like the sort of person who would be much use on a Mars trip.

    15. Re:Why Not? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The dry bones speak no words
      No ghost marches ever forward
      Parcel Post goes not there
      Return to sender

      - Anon

    16. Re:Why Not? by eaglesrule · · Score: 1

      Having the chance to participate in a major milestone for human achievement could be motivation enough. History would remember the brave pioneers that colonized the first extraterrestrial world, their legacy preserved to be taught to future generations to serve as an example to the spirit of exploration.

      Those that never take the risks, they may have lived a longer life having played it safe, but they will be forgotten. You could spend your whole life never leaving the safety of your bedroom, and it's still no guarantee.

    17. Re: Why Not? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fuck you boring ass fuck

    18. Re:Why Not? by currently_awake · · Score: 1

      The Spacex plan is very sub-optimal, and that makes me worry about his ability to make this work. Half the cost of getting people to Mars is the first 100 miles to orbit, and he wants to launch the entire interplanetary ship for every trip instead of having a re-usable ship with a gym/full bathrooms/bedrooms/living space etc and a disposable ship with nothing but bunks for the launch. If he's so smart and good at business, how come he wants to triple travel costs?

    19. Re:Why Not? by currently_awake · · Score: 1

      If the robots can do the work, then let them do it before you arrive. You show up to a fully built biome, fully stocked and tested. So you would be outside exploring, or inside your dome with enough room it looks outside.

    20. Re:Why Not? by dbIII · · Score: 1

      McMurdo is closest

      McMurdo is the city of Antarctic bases - a lot of flights in with fresh food and everything. A good place to start on getting more understanding is reading about the expeditions during the international geophysical year, that should be modern enough that you can relate.

    21. Re:Why Not? by dbIII · · Score: 1

      It's well and truly fiction but the Japanese near-future "Space Brothers" has that for their moonbase - modular construction by robots before the first astronauts arrive.
      Getting people somewhere requires lifting a lot of mass to orbit and you are on the clock with consumables. Automated stuff doesn't need so much support and is far less time critical. You don't need to send that stuff to do the walls at the same time as what you need to do foundations (or drill holes or whatever).

    22. Re:Why Not? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      see friends, family, travel, go to the beach, go skiing, go biking

      None of this pertains to the people who think they want to colonize mars.

    23. Re:Why Not? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Want to sail around the world on a 10m boat?

    24. Re:Why Not? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Why not let the robots do the exploration also?

    25. Re:Why Not? by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      The transit spacecraft carries several times its mass in cargo, serves as the spacecraft for bringing that cargo to orbit and delivering them to the surface of Mars, and is built for rapid and complete reuse, with spacecraft only needing to be mated together on the pad and loaded for another launch.

      Your suggested alternative greatly increases propellant requirements to allow for braking into orbit instead of doing a direct entry and landing. That requires more launches per mission, every one of those launches requiring an expendable vehicle to be constructed and transported to the launch site for every launch. And you haven't even dealt with the issue of landing on Mars and returning vehicles to Earth...how do you get your orbital spacecraft refueled for return? Ship expendable tanker launchers to Mars?

      You aren't gaining anything with that approach, you certainly aren't cutting the costs by 2/3.

    26. Re:Why Not? by fox171171 · · Score: 1

      History would remember the brave pioneers that colonized the first extraterrestrial world, their legacy preserved to be taught to future generations to serve as an example to the spirit of exploration.

      How many people who set foot on the moon can you name? I would bet most people would be lucky to name the first one, let alone the rest of them.

    27. Re:Why Not? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      don't under sell yourself

      you're wrong about many many many more things!

    28. Re:Why Not? by eaglesrule · · Score: 1

      How many people who set foot on the moon can you name? I would bet most people would be lucky to name the first one, let alone the rest of them.

      That may be why history is documented, rather than relying on oral tradition. If you don't know, your favorite search engine will.

  11. The main point is as a species we are at risk by Hussman32 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Taking the sun's-eye view of Life As We Know It, it can all go away with a massive asteroid (that we can't see), a freak solar storm (that we'd see for about 8 minutes), or other event that could take us all out.

    After that, all the science, all the technology, all the things we've done to separate ourselves from the rocks we kill each other with are gone. All because we are on a semi-closed system (planet Earth can take new mass in, and ejects minimal amounts of hydrogen).

    It seems prudent to me that we make the ark (Stephenson wasn't the first to name it) and get at least some life (some of it with the ability to sustain the rest) off of this planet. That gives us a non-zero probability of surviving if an extinction level event should happen. We have a budget of billions of dollars spent on items of less importance, sometimes I wonder how we get priorities like this.

    --
    "Who are you?" "No one of consequence." "I must know." "Get used to disappointment."
    1. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, we've lived on Earth for a long, long time
      Since we crawled up out of the primal slime
      And we firmly believe
      That it's time we should leave
      It's a small world after all!

      It's a small world after all
      We're not satisfied at all
      We want something not so small
      As this small, small world.

    2. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      I never understood this argument. Why is it so critical for our race to not go extinct? Species go extinct all the time. By they way, we can't live anywhere other than Earth (we evolved to live here and other reachable environments would kill us quickly). But as a thought experiment it is nice to think about spreading through the galaxy, even though it is impossible.

    3. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Hussman32 · · Score: 1

      It's not just our species, its all life (that we know of) that could not exist anymore. Yes, the universe existed for 10 billion years (or so) before this tiny pebble somehow had a remarkable series of events occur...I'm not religious but life is special and until we know it exists anywhere else on the universe, it seems like its our responsibility to ensure it continues. Otherwise the universe will be boring.

      --
      "Who are you?" "No one of consequence." "I must know." "Get used to disappointment."
    4. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Hussman32 · · Score: 1

      and before the grammar nazis get me, yes, I know I missed two apostrophes on the "it's". Someday Ill lurn to prrofreed.

      --
      "Who are you?" "No one of consequence." "I must know." "Get used to disappointment."
    5. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why should we be concerned about the risk of our species coming to an end? The universe will be fine without us. We serve only ourselves, generally to the detriment of everything else.

    6. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Weird. So if you find out that life exists elsewhere you won't be so gung ho about "saving the species"? Species are going extinct right now.

    7. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by neoRUR · · Score: 1

      Maybe he knows something we don't about incoming asteroids headed this way and is preparing for the future.

    8. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      LOL. Advocating for Trump. Thats a good one! Trump is the main reason the species should go extinct

    9. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by painandgreed · · Score: 2

      I never understood this argument. Why is it so critical for our race to not go extinct?

      Because when it really comes down to it, that is the entire point of life.

    10. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      Why is it so critical for our race to not go extinct? Species go extinct all the time.

      Why is it so critical for you to eat food? People die of starvation all the time.

      Ah, I see -- you don't enjoy starvation and would prefer to avoid it. Similarly, humanity doesn't enjoy extinction, and would prefer to avoid it.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    11. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by WrongMonkey · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That gives us a non-zero probability of surviving if an extinction level event should happen.

      We already have a non-zero probability of surviving if an extinction level event should happen. Earth has been hit by extinction level events many times in its history and every single time its still had infinitely more life than Mars has ever had. Even if Earth were simultaneous hit be a nuclear war, global warming and an asteroid, it would still be more hospitable to life than Mars.

      Mars IS an extinction level event. Every single second on Mars is a more hostile environment than Earth has ever been since life evolved. That's not a back up plan. That's a cult suicide pact.

    12. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by eaglesrule · · Score: 1

      Eventually there will be the heat death of the universe. Why bother doing anything at all? Why not just off ourselves right now?

      Ultimately we do things because we can; all living things act within their limits. If it is possible for our particular strain of life form to extend those limits even for the brief flicker of time within the vast cosmic scale, we should.

    13. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Altrag · · Score: 1

      Why is it so critical for our race to not go extinct?

      In the grand scheme of things? Its not. In fact the universe will keep on turning even if all life everywhere was extinguished forever. The universe doesn't care about us. Or much of anything else for that matter. It just is.

      In our own perspective though? We consider our survival a little more important than the rest of the universe does. It might not be "critical" but its certainly "highly desirable."

      And of course if you're of the type, you could throw some God into the mix. Though he hasn't shown much more interest in human survival than the universe has. And really, he's God -- if the human experiment fails, he can just create a new race and try again. Hell for all we know, he already has and we're just not clever enough to notice it yet.

    14. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah. It's a good one: you're a fucking joke.

    15. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by swillden · · Score: 1

      Earth has been hit by extinction level events many times in its history and every single time its still had infinitely more life than Mars has ever had.

      Sure, life has always survived. Large organisms, not so much.

      Every single second on Mars is a more hostile environment than Earth has ever been since life evolved. That's not a back up plan.

      Nonsense. Oh, you're right that Mars is a more hostile environment than Earth, but that doesn't mean living there is impossible with the right technology. And if we can develop the technology to live reasonably well on Mars, then it is a disaster recovery plan, because it's far away from Earth.

      That's a cult suicide pact.

      Huh? How do you figure? The decision of some people to go to Mars won't in any way endanger the people who stay on Earth.

      And there really is absolutely no reason why we should not be able to live perfectly well on Mars. There's nothing we need that isn't present on Mars. Oh, the things we need mostly aren't available in the right configurations, but that's where technology comes in. For that matter, unaided humans can't live in most places on this planet.

      Arguably humans without appropriate knowledge can't survive anywhere on Earth. Humanity appears to have evolved in the Great Rift Valley. If you were dropped there with no technology (clothing is technology), and no knowledge of local plants, animals, etc., no notion of where to get food/water, you wouldn't last more than a few days. Granted that your life in similar conditions on Mars would be low single-digit minutes, but the point is that all human survival is knowledge-dependent. More knowledge is required to survive in primeval Iceland than primeval Tanzania, but even Tanzania requires significant knowledge. Even more is required to live in Antarctica, and more yet on Mars... and even more in space, which is a placed we've had some people living continuously for decades.

      It's a continuum, and there's no reason to think that Mars is on the other side of some boundary of survivability. The surface of the sun probably is. Inside the jet of a quasar almost certainly is. But not Mars.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    16. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Languages go extinct, get rediscovered, the works written in them get translated and persist despite the death of the language's native speakers. If creating something that lives on with your name attached to it is the criteria, how about Newton and Kant the virgins vs. Genghis Khan's descendants (who probably study Newton and Kant the virgins in school)?

    17. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      Earth has been hit by extinction level events many times in its history and every single time its still had infinitely more life than Mars has ever had.

      With the possible exception of the Theia impact.

      But more importantly, the Earth is in constant danger of being eaten by an enormous mutant star goat. It's vital that we load the middle managers into an ark and send them to Mars to be safe.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    18. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      More people should die willingly of starvation, like Jain sadhus, and Godel.

    19. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by eddeye · · Score: 1

      Taking the sun's-eye view of Life As We Know It, it can all go away with a massive asteroid (that we can't see), a freak solar storm (that we'd see for about 8 minutes), or other event that could take us all out. After that, all the science, all the technology, all the things we've done to separate ourselves from the rocks we kill each other with are gone.

      And you know what? If that happens, chances are 99.9999% that me and all my friends and relatives will be gone to. Only a miniscule number of people will ever leave the planet for a Mars colony. And they're all complete strangers to me.

      I don't care whether "humanity" survives or not. What good is the human race surviving when me and everyone I care about are dead? Let us all burn together.

      --
      Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch.
    20. Re:The main point is as a species we are at risk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Trump is King Troll. He's trolling you about deficits, everyone knows Reagan proved deficits don't matter.

  12. Colonize Antartica First by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    All the challenges of trying to inhabit a resource poor super cold desert, but the atmosphere is still breathable.
    And if the your test colony fails, there is still a chance of evacuation.

  13. Environmental Impact Study? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What?

    Don't they need to do a 5 year EIS? Mars is pristine. What if they introduce pathogenic that wipe out whatever life may be hiding there?

    1. Re:Environmental Impact Study? by painandgreed · · Score: 2

      What?

      Don't they need to do a 5 year EIS? Mars is pristine. What if they introduce pathogenic that wipe out whatever life may be hiding there?

      Not really. The entire planet is covered with perclorates which are sterilizing agents.

  14. Re:Hi. Musk's publicist. by sexconker · · Score: 1

    Elon Musk only got media attention after Steve Jobs died. It's a Highlander scenario.

  15. Who would you rather have? by Dareth · · Score: 1

    Who would you rather have on Mars with you, one 300 lb man, or three 100 lb women? Cost to get there is the same for both right, based on weight?

    --

    I only look human.
    My mother is a halfling and my dad is an ogre, so that makes me an Ogreling
  16. Seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men by gweihir · · Score: 0

    Hard to explain these completely unrealistic visions otherwise.

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    1. Re:Seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men by Hussman32 · · Score: 1

      Any great project starts with a vision. The details of this one are extremely expensive and challenging, but I don't think they are physically/technically impossible. Although I will concede they are economically impossible at the moment.

      --
      "Who are you?" "No one of consequence." "I must know." "Get used to disappointment."
    2. Re:Seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Growth mindset vs fixed mindset. I know those seem to be buzzwords of the day but it's true. The way I see it, we'll get there eventually if we keep trying, but we never will if we don't try. Musk is notorious for aiming high and missing schedules but you have to be blind if you can't see what he's accomplished so far. If you can at least agree that we'll get there someday, then why not pull in the schedule a bit by working on the problem now instead of waiting around for 100 years doing nothing?

    3. Re:Seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men by gweihir · · Score: 1

      They are technologically impossible at the moment. Economics does not even come into it.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    4. Re:Seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Nobody says anything about doing nothing for 100 years. But remember that we still have no permanent base on the moon and that one is orders of magnitudes simpler as it _can_ be supplied from Earth? In fact, we do not have a replacement project for the ISS at this time. This tells me that 100 years for a realistic attempt at a permanent human presence on Mars is optimistic. Of course that also requires that human civilization does not go down the drains in that time and there are some rather huge challenges coming in that area in this time-frame.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    5. Re:Seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      But not physically impossible. $=engineering=technology. Anything that is physically possible is possible with enough motivation ($$).

    6. Re:Seems to have surrounded himself with yes-men by gweihir · · Score: 1

      "Physically possible" does buy you exactly nothing. Your reasoning is also fundamentally flawed, because there are loads of "physically possible" things that are not practically possible in this universe, much less for the human race. Also you seem to be completely unaware how applied research works, because it is _not_ a matter of money spent beyond a pretty low threshold. In fact, there are indicators that you slow research down if you invest too much money, because you get more and more people with mediocre talent in.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  17. Still better than... by Dareth · · Score: 1

    Still better than...Captain Donner: "Welcome aboard, please join us for dinner."

    --

    I only look human.
    My mother is a halfling and my dad is an ogre, so that makes me an Ogreling
    1. Re:Still better than... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    2. Re:Still better than... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Still better than...Captain Donner: "Welcome aboard, please join us for dinner."

      Actually in the end wasn't it the same thing? (where they were?) It's been awhile since I saw that (I don't want to give spoiler away and no one will get the ascension reference..)

  18. Pretty easy by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    Who would you rather have on Mars with you, one 300 lb man, or three 100 lb women?

    That's not hard to choose at all - the one guy uses less oxygen than the three women, not to mention if it comes down to it that one 300 pound guy provides a lot more calories than three thin women.

    Cost to get there is the same for both right, based on weight?

    See: Oxygen. Plus you could half the food rations for the 300lb guy figuring he can live party off his own body weight for a while at least.

    In fact if they were smart they'd send only really fat people up in the first few missions so they could ship up very little food.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Pretty easy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Fat people use considerably more oxygen than normal people. Part of that is because they tire much more quickly and part of it is because burning fat requires more oxygen than burning carbs. Fat people aren't suitable for anything really, especially anything that involves hard work, much of which will be manual labour.

      Also, in that hypothetical question, three minds > one mind.

  19. Governance? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So just how will the Colony be governed? It's charter? Enforcement?

    When you LITERALLY have a private entity able to control your air and water it's quite easy to see a nightmare emerging.

    1. Re:Governance? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a neoliberal's wet dream.

  20. Training by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1

    Every person who even thinks about colonizing Mars should overwinter at McMurdo station for a least 2 years straight. I don't think you'll find a million volunteers after that screening process. Even Elon Musk would probably change his tune.

    1. Re:Training by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      but people live there and similar places. and most the million would be born there, not screened to live there

  21. Here is how it REALLY will be. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Live a short time, being afraid the whole time and dying a painful death within a that short period of time.

    Live short and fail.

  22. Robots by religionofpeas · · Score: 1

    Musk is a strong believer in powerful AI coming soon. He should combine his two visions, and send robots to Mars so they can build a nice cozy house for him to live in, and enjoy the sunset.

    1. Re:Robots by StanislavBezpalko · · Score: 1
  23. I wasn't expecting to comment, but the article... by CustomSolvers2 · · Score: 1
    ... is priceless and I couldn't refrain from sharing it with others. My favourite parts:

    The paper outlines early designs of the gigantic spacecraft, designed to carry 100 passengers, that he hopes to construct.

    the paper states. “We are talking about a lift-off thrust of 13,000 tons, so it will be quite tectonic when it takes off.”

    The current situation is summed up in a Venn diagram

    “What we need to do is to move those circles together,” Musk explains

    the paper strikes a buoyant, even jocular tone and doesn’t get excessively bogged down in technical detail

    It would be quite fun to be on Mars

    The spaceship’s design is summed up as: “In some ways, it is not that complicated,”

    “We have to figure out how to improve the cost of trips to Mars by five million percent”

    --
    Custom Solvers 2.0 = Alvaro Carballo Garcia = varocarbas.
  24. But Does He Explain... by RobotRunAmok · · Score: 1

    why he spells it with an "S" in the title and a "Z" in the summary? That's what we really want to know. Dual British/American citizenship? Or just lousy copy editing?

  25. 50 ways to leave your mother... by Thud457 · · Score: 1

    Vacate the basement, Brent.
    Climb up the stairs, bears.
    Get your ass to Mars, Lars.
    And get yourself free.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  26. Re:Musk is a douche by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Correct. Consider Derrick Jensen's Heaven on Mars:

    Recall that a central point of agriculture has been to make people dependent on those in power for their food: if you control someone’s food, you control their lives, which means you control their labor. The people in Musk’s heaven would be dependent on those in charge for the very air they breathe. The God of capitalism/Authoritarianism is smiling.

  27. Bring back the sea dragon by GuB-42 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The sea dragon was a gigantic rocket designed to be as simple as possible. It was never done full scale, though small scale tests were done and the design was considered viable. It was designed to bring 550 tons to LEO, which is about the same as Musks's super rocket.

    A few awesome facts about the sea dragon :
    - 2 stages, with a single engine (the same) for each stage
    - The first stage of the Saturn V can fit in the engine bell
    - It is a pressurized tank design. No turbo-pumps, the engine is basically 2 valves and an igniter
    - The first stage burns kerosene + LOX. Regular kerosene, not the more expensive RP-1. The 2nd stage uses hydrogen
    - Designed to be launched directly from the sea, with most of the rocket being underwater. The rocket would be powerful enough to destroy any launchpad anyways.
    - Made from 8mm sheet steel, in a ship yard, using the same techniques they use to build submarines
    - Reuseable. It is designed to be able to resist a fall back into water. No costly delicate parts to break

    The whole idea behind this rocket was to make things BIG instead of complex. It is terribly inefficient compared to current designs but it is so huge that it doesn't matter.

    1. Re:Bring back the sea dragon by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      ITS achieves essentially the same performance to LEO without being so enormous it would destroy any pad it operated from or requiring a nuclear aircraft carrier for LH2 production as part of normal operations, and while also being rapidly and fully reusable. Sea Dragon was only partially reusable, and would at best require lengthy recovery operations and refurbishment before another flight. Sea Dragon also can only deliver mass to LEO, the technology would be useless for going to Mars. ITS uses the same engines for launch, orbital maneuvering, and precision landings with payload on Mars or Earth.

      Turbopumps and rocket engines were young and poorly developed technologies in 1962. The field has moved on since then, and low-performance pressure fed rockets with long and complex reuse cycles and operational procedures are not likely to be competitive with the reusable rockets being developed now.

  28. Re: Musk is a douche by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As described in the documentary "Total Recall"; controlling the air supply is great for putting down riots too.

  29. Naw, retirement's for the 1% by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    they'll leave you to die long before that.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  30. How about solving public transportation first by rsilvergun · · Score: 2

    and making city air clean. And making clean manufacturing. And What about the upcoming potable water crisis? Mars doesn't exactly solve that one. Now, if we're going there to get more Helium after venting it all into space to make party balloons I might be for it (electronics require Helium)

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re: How about solving public transportation first by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, the R&D needed for the mission might solve some of those. The potable water problem being the obvious one.

    2. Re:How about solving public transportation first by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Balloon use makes up about 2% of helium. He is also a byproduct of nuclear fission and there is considerable material for that. Also research balloons use considerable amounts of He, it's not all for parties.

  31. plan makes no sense by scatbomb · · Score: 1

    So much energy is needed just to escape Earth's gravity well, it would make more sense to set up a refueling station either on-orbit or on the moon (much smaller gravity well). That way the giant rocket doesn't have to make the whole trip in one go and it would be much easier to arrange resupplying missions. Anyway, an unmanned mission should be planned first to set up power, air, and begin producing fuel so that the colonists have some things waiting for them that they can rely on for survival. Sending people alone with nothing set up on the other end is easier to plan but has higher chance of disaster. Better to take it slow and incrementally.

    1. Re:plan makes no sense by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      The plan involves refueling in orbit. The needs for and benefits of doing so are one of the first topics addressed by the paper. As for the moon, you'd spend more propellant landing on the moon than you would going straight to Mars, and you'd need to deliver far more mass to set up ice mining operations on the moon than you would need on Mars. The moon is a place to go if you want to go to the moon, but it's not an easier target, and if you want to go to Mars it's only an expensive detour.

    2. Re:plan makes no sense by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      Anyway, an unmanned mission should be planned first to set up power, air, and begin producing fuel so that the colonists have some things waiting for them that they can rely on for survival. Sending people alone with nothing set up on the other end is easier to plan but has higher chance of disaster. Better to take it slow and incrementally.

      Gee, it's almost like other people have already thought of that. SpaceX will be sending a Dragon capsule to Mars in 2018. It will not be manned. SpaceX's plan involving the new rocket they want to build calls for 20 unmanned launches per manned launch, all filled with equipment arriving on Mars first.

      I know we don't read the articles around here, but you could at least read the comments.

  32. Colonization plan. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The article talks about their plans for building a rocket. I really would like to know about the plans for *colonization*.

    What things do they need for a self sustaining colony, in what order will they do them? Not that the rocket isn't interesting, but this is a plan for getting to Mars, not colonizing it. Wake me up when they have a *colonization* plan.

    More questions below....

    Are they planning to build a propellant plant first? Then Biodomes for growing food? Or do they plan to mine materials to make the domes? What pressure do the domes need to hold for plants to grow? What Martian materials will they use?

    Is someone going to go set up the propellant plant first and return to earth while it fills up tanks? Or is the first mission going to be a suicide mission if they can't get either the propellant plant for bio domes running before they run out of supplies?

    Will they send a robot to assemble the propellant plant and get initial things ready for the first people? A 4 minute communications delay makes remote controlling a robot difficult, but if it was smart enough to be given more complex instructions this wouldn't be an issue. Surely a robot of some sort will be needed for mining ice for the propellant plant.

    Food, fuel, material for building structures - these are the heavy things that they really must create on Mars. Other things that take more processing but weigh less can be set at least for a while - clothing, electronics, etc. Do they need to locate near iron and water deposits? So they have a location in mind?

    Mars only gets 40% of the sunlight of the earth. How much will this hamper plant growth? 60 degrees north gets this amount of light, but it is about mid Canada or mid-Russia and I don't think they're planning to grow pine trees (nothing against pine nuts).

    It is reasonable to assume hyperloop is the plan for travel, and tunneling is the plan for habitation. For habitation, is the rock sufficiently air tight to keep an atmosphere, or will they line the tunnels, and if so what with, and how will they make it?

    1. Re:Colonization plan. by PPH · · Score: 1

      The article talks about their plans for building a rocket. I really would like to know about the plans for *colonization*.

      Don't you worry yourself about the details. Just get on the rocket.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
  33. Some of that is less risky than it seems. by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    You claim if "any of that happens you are dead" but...

    Well, if shit breaks you can get spare parts

    Which you obviously pack more of on a ship to Mars, then in many scenarios get shipped to you about once a year while you are there.

    Also of course, you do realize you ship a lot of spare equipment out ahead of time and don't go until you know it's safe???

    Low on food?

    How would that realistically happen on the trip out which would have packaged meals to last the trip + one year minimum on Mars (probably more). It's the time past that where growing the food may become an issue but that's quite a long point beyond the main goal which is simply to live on Mars and advance a colony. Even if you all day you have at least prepped something for those that come after.

    And again you would have shipped extra food out ahead of you so you know if you arrive you will have enough to eat for X number of days.

    Low on air? Simply make more

    This is the only realistic danger to my mind but with enough spare oxygen redundantly stored on the way out along with scrubbers you should be OK. At least in this area we actually have a lot of experience providing long term oxygen supplies in space.

    Once you get to Mars you can also make more.

    Got a fire? Lots of water to put it out.

    Guess what fire needs to burn, and you can't find in space or in much abundance on Mars... Lots of small compartments easily voided mean fire is less of an issue.

    All of the issues you raise apply to the space station to some degree, even though it can get new supplies that does not happen with greta regularity. Yet it has been around for a long time without major issues.

    The biggest danger at all is landing, but there again is where landing a few un-manned supply ships of the same design ahead of time ensures a higher degree of confidence in being able to land. In an era where we can land a rocket on a freaking floating barge in the ocean I'm pretty sure we can land on a stable rock.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  34. Re:Hi. Musk's publicist. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Musk is the new Bond Villain.

  35. 100 dead cows on Mars. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    To send 100 cows to Mars and they will die sooner due to the cosmic irradiation!

    On Mars, there are not herbs for the 100 cows, so that they wont give milk to the people.

    Don't pollute the Earth, and don't pollute the Mars.

  36. Re: Musk is a douche by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As described in the documentary "Total Recall"; controlling the air supply is great for putting down riots too.

    Well nobody wants to listen to their crap music.

  37. Re:I wasn't expecting to comment, but the article. by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1
    I laughed because its all rocket jock talk. What about the biology? Psychology? What are everybody going to do once they actually get there? How are you going to build an entire society from scratch?

    Physics is simple. Biology is complex. Humans are insane.

  38. I still have the same old objections by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Objection #1. The "colony" wouldn't be self-sufficient for decades or centuries (if ever). Who do you think is going to pay to supply them? Musk? Not likely.
    Objection #2. Their children and children-to-be didn't volunteer to live in literally inhuman conditions. Is it "right" to allow these arguably crazies to abuse their children this way? Far worse that genital mutilation, imho, they're literally condemning these kids to prison for life.
    Objection #3. Given the likely high incidence of mental illness of those choosing exile-for-life, is a stable government likely? Is a stable society likely? I think not.
    Objection #1b. And is there *any* example of any Earth government or corporation or nonprofit institution which dedicated an equivalent (huge) fraction of their capital and resources to such a useless, impractical effort?

  39. Musk's visions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Continue to sound like my chimichanga dinner an hour later. As funny as that experience is, it's also pretty peurile. I can't wait for the day he is yesterday's news, just like my flaming pooper.

  40. Most Critical Things Missed (so far) in Plan by Slicker · · Score: 3

    Like many, I am excited about what SpaceX is trying to do. I am often trying to fill in the blanks they've left, though. Here are a few:

    1. Gravity. I've long advocated a broad pill-shaped vessel for distant space travel. Spin can be used to simulate gravity but too much will create an uncomfortable corealis effect (dizziness, and the feeling of being pushed walking one way, pulled walking the other). Zero corealis is when the spin is 2 rpm or less but even at 8 rpm, the effects are reasonably negligible. For 2 rpm and Earth-like gravity, the craft would have to be 400 meters in diameter.

    The colonial transporter does seem to have bare walls in the lower occupiable deck. It looks like they may be able to put spinning crew quarters in there with perhaps a bit better than moon-like gravity. One could design a toilet to flush with splash-guards in that environment. If a curfew is put into effect, one could increase the rate of spin after lights out, such as to perhaps greatly reduce the long term effects of weightlessness... then slow it back down again just before wake-up time. The transition between a weightful and weightless environment can be disorienting but I presume one could reasonably adapt in low gravity to no gravity.

    2. Carbon Monoxide. For the colony on Mars itself, nobody (not even NASA) seems to be talking about the CO risk. CO will inevitably find itself way into habitation chambers and at some point, silently kill. Mars CO levels are trace gas but in deadly percentages. CO is very small and is not easily contained--it will seep through most containment materials.

    My solution would be to standardize on hydrogen combustion for heating, cooking, smelting, and other activities requiring high heat. The ambient air will draw in the CO with the oxygen destroying it. Of course, CO monitors must be kept in working order at all times. Hydrogen is easily obtainable through electrolysis of water--which is plentiful in the soils of Mars.

    3. Oxygen Toxicity. This criticism has been made of the Mars One project's published plans. In order to grow enough food to feed a certain number of people, you will inevitably also create more oxygen than they can consume and convert to CO2 through breathing. When too much oxygen builds up, it ultimately freezes the lungs from which the crystalization causes irreparable cellular damage... and death.

    My solution for Oxygen Toxicity is the same as for Carbon Monoxide--combust hydrogen to create heat. Any combustion will consume large amounts of oxygen but combusting hydrogen also solves the CO problem. Mars is very cold and heat it needed for many things.

    4. Heat Dissipation. Most seem concerned with generating and retaining heat in Mars' cold environment. However, heat loss on Mars will not be as rapid as it is on Earth because the atmosphere is thinner. Yes, thin atmosphere equals cold. However, exchange of heat requires molecules to come in contact with each other and when the air density is 1% or even a bit less than on Earth, don't expect the freezing to happen within seconds. A well insulated habitat is likely to over-heat, if no cooling system is available... even perhaps from body heat.

    I propose running cooling coils spread out into the Martian regolith, with ammonia as the heat exchange liquid. The regolith will be fully cooled and, mostly of silica, will very rapidly move heat away. Ammonia will not freeze at Martian temperatures and is readily made by the human body--in pee.

    5. Mental and Emotional Well-Being. Elon Musk's claims that the voyages will be fun seems hopeful but naive. Zero-G games, crew quarters, movies, and lecture halls, and a restaurant (aka glorified cafeteria) will all become old, quickly. Although the privacy of personal quarters, the challenges of games, and various forms of leisure are highly saught after on Earth, that is because we work so much. The truth is, having the stress and feeling of importance of your activities are more essential for human happiness.

    1. Re:Most Critical Things Missed (so far) in Plan by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the insightful and informative post!

      --
      A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  41. Slashvertisement by Excelcia · · Score: 1

    Elon Musk has put his Mars-colonization vision to paper, and you can read it for free.

    For free? As in, there is some expectation that one would have to pay for Musk's position paper?

    Assess slashvertisement due to artificial inducement through unwarranted use of "for free".

  42. Does Musk remind anyone else of this person? by RogueWarrior65 · · Score: 1

    Does Musk remind anyone else of S.R. Hadden from Contact?

  43. Exactly -- Supply-side CATS vs. demand DOGS by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    See my post on Slashdot from 2005: https://slashdot.org/comments....
    "So that is why I think billionaires like Jeff Bezos spending money on CATS is a tragedy -- they should IMHO be spending their money on DOGS instead (Design of Great Settlements)."

    If Elon Musk wants to get to Mars, he should invest in projects like OSCOMAK (my idea, but other people have similar ones):
    http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/...
    "The OSCOMAK project is an attempt to create a core of communities more in control of their technological destiny and its social implications. No single design for a community or technology will please everyone, or even many people. Nor would a single design be likely to survive. So this project endeavors to gather information and to develop tools and processes that all fit together conceptually like Tinkertoys or Legos. The result will be a library of possibilities that individuals in a community can use to achieve any degree of self-sufficiency and self-replication within any size community, from one person to a billion people. Within every community people will interact with these possibilities by using them and extending them to design a community economy and physical layout that suits their needs and ideas."

    Build that first, then deploy automated seeds to Mars and the Moon and Asteroids, and they will come... Because there will be a reason to go there...

    CATS (Cheap Access to Space) is the technological equivalent of supply-side economics.

    Supply side economics is the dumb (yet brilliantly marketed) idea that if we give all out money to rich people, then stuff will trickle down eventually because they will invest in businesses and hire people. That totally ignores that anyone with provable demand for a producible product can already get a bank loan based on booked orders (as well as of course angel investments and venture capital). Give the money to people to spend, and immediately you will see businesses pop up to service that demand. What really happens when you give rich people more money is that they either do the financial equivalent of stuffing it in a matters or they gamble it in high stakes poker games with other rich people and none of it ever reaches the real economy.

    CATS is about supply. The idea goes that if we can make launching people into space cheap enough, if we can make getting to Mars cheap enough, then people will go there. CATS is a dumb idea for the same reasons as supply side economics. We don't go to space because, except for a few scientists studying it and a few tourists on thrill rides, there is nothing of obvious human interest there right now.

    I'm not saying cosmology or astronomy is not interesting -- it is fascinating. But if you want to study cosmology, you will almost certainly be much much happier studying such things on Earth right now than by yourself and maybe a few others cooped up in a tiny buried shack on Mars after having been irradiated for months on the way there.

    If we can build great settlements on land, underground, in Antarctica, and in the oceans -- then soon enough we can build them anywhere including Mars, the Moon, and the Asteroid. Then people will move to space habitats for the same reasons people move to New York City or Austin or Paris or Amsterdam -- because they are interesting places to live around lots of interesting people doing interesting things. And once there are interesting places to go in space, then people will figure out cheaper ways to get there -- including by beaming power to Earth if needed and building space ships in space to shuttle people up from Earth.

    I once calculated that we could evacuate the Earth in about ten years if we switched all our industries to the effort and accepted a 1% - 5% fatality rate (same as ocean voyages to the "New World" centuries ago). So, the issue is not the cost of getting into space. The issue is that there is no pl

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
    1. Re:Exactly -- Supply-side CATS vs. demand DOGS by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Without CATS, nothing in space is possible except on demonstration scale.

    2. Re:Exactly -- Supply-side CATS vs. demand DOGS by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      It would make much more sense to colonize cave 5km underground for these scenarios.

    3. Re:Exactly -- Supply-side CATS vs. demand DOGS by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

      Can you cite any evidence for your opinion that "Without CATS, nothing in space is possible except on demonstration scale"? Here is some counter-evidence to your point.

      While Russia has raised its prices recently, it used to charge about US$20 million to bring a person to the international space station and back. Increasing volume of one-way flights would bring those costs down given the current cheapest cost to orbit for a 200 lb human is likely closer to US$1 million based on current $5000 per pound launch costs for satellites:
      https://space.stackexchange.co...

      A million dollars (adjusted for inflation) is in the ballpark of what people paid to move from Europe to the Americas in the 1600s (according to Freeman Dyson in one of his books).

      There are millions of people on Earth who purchase multi-million dollar homes. The availability of money for going to space right now for millions of people is simply not the issue.

      So, why are these affluent people not moving to space? Why are they are instead buying multi-million dollar condos in NYC and multi-million dollar houses on the beach?

      Answer: Because there are no long-term interesting cities or habitats in space yet worth living in for the long-term.

      We need to build the space habitats first, and then transportation costs will fall to make them accessible to everyone

      For one idea on build space habitats/cities, see:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      From the 1929 by J.D.Bernal:
      http://bactra.org/Bernal/world...
      "Imagine a spherical shell ten miles or so in diameter, made of the lightest materials and mostly hollow; for this purpose the new molecular materials would be admirably suited. Owing to the absence of gravitation its construction would not be an engineering feat of any magnitude. The source of the material out of which this would be made would only be in small part drawn from the earth; for the great bulk of the structure would be made out of the substance of one or more smaller asteroids, rings of Saturn or other planetary detritus. The initial stages of construction are the most difficult to imagine. They will probably consist of attaching an asteroid of some hundred yards or so diameter to a space vessel, hollowing it out and using the removed material to build the first protective shell. Afterwards the shell could be re-worked, bit by bit, using elaborated and more suitable substances and at the same time increasing its size by diminishing its thickness. The globe would fulfill all the functions by which our earth manages to support life. In default of a gravitational field it has, perforce, to keep its atmosphere and the greater portion of its life inside; but as all its nourishment comes in the form of energy through its outer surface it would be forced to resemble on the whole an enormously complicated single-celled plant. ... A globe interior eight miles across would contain as much effective space as a countryside one hundred and fifty miles square even if one gave a liberal allowance of air, say fifty feet above the ground. ... However, the essential positive activity of the globe or colony would be in the development, growth and reproduction of the globe. A globe which was merely a satisfactory way of continuing life indefinitely would barely be more than a reproduction of terrestrial conditions in a more restricted sphere. "

      And to get to that point of having such space habitats, we first need to learn how to build such sustainable self-contained and self-replicating things on Earth. Learning to do so so can benefit all of humanity right now.

      Then, when we know how to make such things through Earth-based experiment and simulation, all it takes is *one* launch of *one* automated factor seed to the Moon or an asteroid (or

      --
      A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  44. Re:I wasn't expecting to comment, but the article. by CustomSolvers2 · · Score: 1

    I laughed because its all rocket jock talk

    Physics is simple

    ?! I don't think that you have got right my position regarding all this and/or interpret those quotes in the way that I thought that virtually anyone would have done. Well, I guess that I shouldn't be surprised at all.

    Here you have references to some of my previous comments about this matter to help you and future readers (for whom statements like "physics is simple" makes sense at all) get the context (= what I consider basic knowledge) and my intention right:
    - What I think of the generic-talking, video-based approach of Musk (sarcastic remark, although I included a clarification expressly highlighting that point. BTW, I see you in one of the comments below, did you get my intention right that time or not?).
    - Generic ideas Musk/Mars (+ was I whooshed?).
    - Explaining someone that there will be no trip to Mars.
    - Clarifying that, without being too interested in any outside-earth option, the moon seems the only acceptable alternative.

    Just in case you are still not getting it: I laughed a lot after reading those quotes (found particularly funny "The current situation is summed up in a Venn diagram" + “What we need to do is to move those circles together,” which seems to reflect the understanding of a 5yo) and was expecting other people to find them very funny too.

    --
    Custom Solvers 2.0 = Alvaro Carballo Garcia = varocarbas.
  45. YOU CAN'T TERRAFORM MARS. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You can't terraform Mars. You can't terraform Mars. You can't terraform Mars.

    Get it?

    You can't terraform Mars. Stop thinking you can because of some stupid sci-fi bullshit movie or TV show you saw, or book you read. You simply cannot.

    You can't terraform Mars. Mars is about ONE TENTH as massive as Earth. (Ref: https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/marsfact.html)

    You can't terraform Mars. Mars is about 70% the density of Earth, which means not only is it less massive, but standing on the surface you are farther from the core than you would be if the density were the same. The surface gravity therefore is much less, about 40% of Earth's, meaning the atmosphere, even if you put the same elements as on Earth there, nitrogen, oxygen, etc., the pressure would NEVER be high enough for you to be able to breathe it in and stay alive, let alone conscious.

    You can't terraform Mars. The highest atmospheric pressure on Mars' surface is about nine millibars. On Earth it's a little over ONE THOUSAND millibars. The atmosphere on Mars, which is mostly carbon dioxide, by the way, FAR and AWAY, even if you converted it to 100% oxygen, (bad idea, btw,) would still not have enough pressure because there isn't enough gravity, because the planet isn't DENSE enough, AND it doesn't have enough MASS. (Sure, if you compressed Mars to be very small, the concentration of mass WOULD increase the surface gravity, meaning you could have a planet the size of say... Texas? with an atmosphere with a pressure like Earth's but it would be MOSTLY CO2!!! (If you 'd like to know what THIS looks like, see: VENUS, a planet with a surface so hot lead would be, and STAY molten. That's pretty fucking hot.)

    You can't terraform Mars. Since we don't know for sure if there was EVER life on Mars, the odds of finding complex carbon compounds, methane, etc., or the oxygen to REACT it with, that can be harnessed there to make things go is pretty remote. Counting on being able to find enough radioactive ore to make into fissile material is a bit like needing a billion dollars and checking change-slots of payphones or newspaper boxes, (remember when those existed? ah, those were the days...) hoping one will have, instead of maybe a dime or a quarter, a billion dollars! As for fussile material, (lol) we can't make a sustainable fusion reaction to power something HERE on Earth yet. Don't imagine that somehow it'll be magically easier to do on Mars. Wind power is not an option with an atmosphere less than 1% of what Earth has, and wave-energy on a planet with no standing water is going to be impossible. "So," they say, "well, we'll use SOLAR POWER!" No, you won't. We don't even rely on it here on Earth, where we could and should. Also, SLIGHT complication on Mars. Guess what? Remember the expression "My Very Excited Mother Just Served Us Nine Pies?" It's a mnemonic for remembering the names of the planets, (and/or Trans-Neptunian Objects,) Mercury, Venus, Earth, MARS, Jupiter... etc., and what order they're in, in terms of distance from the sun. Note that Earth, (along with Mercury and Venus,) comes BEFORE Mars. This is because the Earth is much closer to the sun than tiny, barren, barely-air-there Mars.

    You can't terraform Mars. The surface of The Red Planet gets a small FRACTION of the light the same surface area gets on Mars. This means there'll have to be either MUCH LARGER panels (and batteries to store their power,) to do the same work as they could on Earth, or a lot more OF THEM. We can't even get people to do this on Earth where a much higher amount of solar energy per unit area falls, and you wanna build GREENHOUSES there? HA!

    You can't terraform Mars. Humans would NEVER be able to live outside, so "colonizing" Mars really just means having spaceships and/or space-stations, stuck, for NO good goddamned reason, at the bottom of a gravity well, many months of flying AWAY from Earth. (If you're so gung-ho about it, why not do it on the moon? It's CLOSER, for starters.)

    1. Re:YOU CAN'T TERRAFORM MARS. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So we can terraform it, it will just take more work. OK, thanks for the input!

  46. Iceland had forests before humans showed up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland

    When the island was first settled, it was extensively forested. In the late 12th century, Ari the Wise described it in the Íslendingabók as "forested from mountain to sea shore".[68] Permanent human settlement greatly disturbed the isolated ecosystem of thin, volcanic soils and limited species diversity. The forests were heavily exploited over the centuries for firewood and timber.[65]

    Why make such extreme claims without checking them first?

  47. Ignorance + condescending: not a good combination by dbIII · · Score: 1
    Ah - that link - a video showing mousing over a google prompt - how insulting and condescending. I'm frankly astonished that you are so thin skinned and insecure that you would escalate to such an insult so quickly.
    Here is one that is merely informative without being condescending:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_smelting
    Note a requirement of a little more than "just add energy".

    If you'd do a few minutes of research on the subject

    I have taught some stuff on this topic a couple of years before this site existed. And no, that doesn't make me any more special than any other postgraduate engineering student with a metallurgical focus at the time, you just happen to have hit something I was doing.

    it's fundamentally no different from electrolyzing water for hydrogen and oxygen

    Perhaps you should look up some melting points of molten oxides and then consider if your electrodes are going to survive, let alone have your metal of choice plated out on them.

    I'm sure that you are extremely good at coding or something, but there are a lot of people on this site and the odds are when you bring up something where you are out of your depth that you will hit someone who has had to actually put some work into that topic. Perhaps instead of feeling threatened and getting insulting you should consider a different reaction.

  48. Re:Ignorance + condescending: not a good combinati by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

    It truly is a bad combination. Seriously, do some research before bragging about teaching on a subject you clearly know nothing about. Just because you're familiar with one particular way of doing things does not mean it is the only possible approach.

    Yes, the temperatures are high. Guess what, the people developing these systems figured that out pretty early on, and electricity turns out to be pretty good at heating things to high temperatures, with several experimental designs being heated by the current used for electrolysis. The material difficulties with the electrodes and crucibles are also areas of current research, but workable solutions already exist. The fact is that molten oxide electrolysis can produce large quantities of reduced metal and oxygen with the only inputs being oxides (typically a mix of silicates and metal oxides, as in molten basalt rock) and electricity. No reducing agents required.

  49. Do more than jump to bad conclusions by dbIII · · Score: 1
    Try actually thinking about it.
    Consider aluminium oxide (alumina), you've got to heat it up to a bit above 2000C before it is molten.
    Assuming your electrodes can survive how are you going to actually get the aluminium out?
    Hence the process I linked to above instead of "just use energy".

    Are you getting yet why your "just use energy" is coming across like "just use a Star Trek matter replicator"?
    I'm not suggesting impossibility, just that it's not so trivial as you are suggesting.

    Seriously, do some research before bragging

    I'm not bragging, merely pointing out that I know more than nothing about the topic (and that nothing point is sadly where you are arguing from for some strange reason).

    1. Re:Do more than jump to bad conclusions by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      Try actually reading about it. Apart from the fact that pure alumina is unlikely to be a practical electrolyte for aluminum production and that most research has been based on iron rich basalt rock similar to that easily available on Mars and the moon, with electrolysis temperatures of around 1600 C, pouring liquid aluminum (or iron, as is the case in the actual research projects being done) is hardly a major technical hurdle to overcome.

      This is isn't some poorly thought out idea of what might be technically possible: physical hardware has been built and operated. The inputs are literally just ore (in some cases just crushed volcanic rock as a lunar regolith simulant) and electricity.

    2. Re:Do more than jump to bad conclusions by dbIII · · Score: 1

      I'm still waiting for something other than a joke link plus insults, bluff and bluster.

  50. No answer? Try this one then by dbIII · · Score: 1

    unlikely to be a practical electrolyte

    Of course it's impractical. It's not just impractical for that metal oxide situation, it's impractical across the range which is why the "just add energy" approach is ridiculous - other things are done before adding energy.

    Try actually reading about it

    I certainly have done so, far more than you on the topic given what I was doing for a living.

    This is isn't some poorly thought out idea of what might be technically possible

    Well no, technically possible does not seem to be coming into it at all.

    As for getting iron out of an iron oxide in a silicon rich molten mass - assuming the electrodes survive how are you going to get the iron out at the electrode? It's going to be far too hot to plate out isn't it?
    Do you have a citation (instead of an insult) on that which you have come across as part of what you are calling your "research"? If you do I suggest you actually read it and I'm sure you'll find that the only one saying "just add energy" is you.