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New Diesel and Petrol Vehicles To Be Banned From 2040 In UK (bbc.com)

New submitter puenktli writes: The UK is joining the list of the countries which are making a commitment towards diesel and petrol free vehicles. Other countries might be more progressive with such a ban (e.g. the Netherlands: by 2025), but at least it's a step in the right direction. However, if new bans are put forward at such a high rate as now, in 2040, the UK might be the only western country where petrol-fuelled cars are still on the road. Tesla at least will be happy about this ban, especially now with their Model 3. But these bans will inspire other car makers as well to invest more in EV. Maybe not such a bad idea after all: oil will run out one day, but the sun will always shine.

13 of 417 comments (clear)

  1. Short-sighted view by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    oil will run out one day, but the sun will always shine

    Maybe another 4 billion years but hardly always.

    1. Re: Short-sighted view by zieroh · · Score: 4, Funny

      How about not making complex diagnosis of rare personality disorders online from a few lines of text?

      You're paranoid.

      --
      People who say "sheeple" have about as much sophistication as an AOL user, and in fact are probably actually AOL users.
    2. Re:Short-sighted view by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The Green River Formation has 200+ years of oil reserves at the current US rate of ~20 million barrels consumption a day. And that is just one oil reserve within the US. We could be 100% self-sufficient, free of any foreign oil dependence, for literally centuries.

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    3. Re:Short-sighted view by UnknowingFool · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Not it does not. From your own link

      The Green River Formation contains the largest oil shale deposit in the world. It has been estimated that the oil shale reserves could be equal up to 3 trillion barrels (480 billion cubic metres) of shale oil, up to half of which may be recoverable by shale oil extraction technologies (pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution of kerogen in oil shale). However, the estimates of recoverable oil has been questioned by geophysicist Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, who argues that the technology for recovering oil from the Green River oil shale deposit has not been developed and has not been profitably implemented at any significant scale.

      --
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    4. Re:Short-sighted view by mspohr · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Fuel cost alone is EV=0.03 cents per mile and ICE = 0.20 cents per mile. (YMMV)
      Also, EVs have low maintenance cost. Tires are about the only cost. Brakes last forever; no oil changes; drive train has a few thousand fewer parts to wear and break.
      The more you drive, the more you save.

      --
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    5. Re:Short-sighted view by OneHundredAndTen · · Score: 4, Insightful

      oil will run out one day, but the sun will always shine

      Maybe another 4 billion years but hardly always.

      Major changes in the planet aside, oil will never run out. Rather, at some point it will not make economic sense to drill for it any more. That will hopefully happen some time within the next 20-30 years.

    6. Re:Short-sighted view by hipp5 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I'm buying a new car, and just ran the numbers for a volt versus a normal gas engine. In my commute? I save an amazing $321 a year. That's less than $1 a day. in a car which is $3K MORE than the gas car, even after $9K in gov't /state bonuses. You wannna push electric vehicles? Lower the cost of Electricity.

      Don't forget to factor in maintenance costs. EVs are much simpler with fewer moving parts. No oil changes, no muffler replacements, etc.

      But yeah, I'm not surprised the math doesn't pencil out yet. Modern EVs are still relatively new in the grand scheme of things, and there's a lot of optimizing still to be done. But the math will work out sooner or later. In the meantime the people buying them are doing so for reasons other than hard dollars and cents (i.e. the same reason anyone buys a $30k car in a world where $15k cars exist).

  2. the UK might be the only western country where pe by fred6666 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    the UK might be the only western country where petrol-fuelled cars are still on the road

    No, the USA will be dead last

  3. Probably moot by that point... by taiwanjohn · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Some analysts are already predicting that the car market will be 50% EV by the mid-2020s, and will "tip" rapidly thereafter. This trend is mostly driven by the cost of Li-ion batteries, which has been falling at about 15%/yr for the last couple of decades. When it becomes possible to buy an entry-level EV for $20k or less, why would you even want an ICE vehicle?

    The "fuel" price for EVs is a fraction of that for ICE, as is the maintenance cost. EVs only have a couple-dozen moving parts, compared to thousands in an ICE car. Of course, there will still be "gas car" enthusiasts in 2040, just as there are hobbyists who still maintain antique steam-powered farm equipment. But even by 2030, there will no longer be a need for this law, because the market will already have flipped.

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    1. Re:Probably moot by that point... by voislav98 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      These analysts are typically guys who are not automotive analysts, but technology analysts. They have large misconceptions about the automotive industry and how quickly can the technology change. The transition from ICE to electric engines is a huge one with a number of technology and production issues to still be resolved. Reasonable analyses I've seen from automotive industry guys have hybrids jumping to 25-35% of vehicle sales by 2030, with full electrics staying below 5%. 50% by mid-2020's or even 2030's is a pipe dream.

      To put it simply, Tesla's Gigafactory will take 5 years to build (2015 - 2020 for full capacity) at a cost of $5 billion and will supply batteries for 1.5 million cars. European vehicle sales (passenger cars and light commerial vehicles, which includes SUV's) are in the 10 - 15 million per year range, US are 15 - 20 million per year range. So to supply this volume of vehicles (50% of 25 - 35 million per year), you would need 10 Gigafactories, with building to start by early 2020's. I haven't seen any plans for this to happen, so the battery supply will not be there to build these vehicles. Infrastructure is the second issue. It takes time to build out the network of charging stations and there are no widespread plans to do this either.

      So, all these plans and commitments are meaningless unless they are accompanied by major investments into battery and electric component production and infrastructure investment. When that happens, I'll believe that electric cars will have meaningful sales.

  4. Re:Rolling Coal by Creedo · · Score: 4, Funny

    In other news, rolling coal is alive and well in the US.

    Yeah, those fucking idiots. I really, really hate those assholes. I fully support their right to do this in the confines of their garage. Preferably, with all of the doors closed and any ventilation sealed shut.

    --
    All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
  5. Far Enough Off... by pubwvj · · Score: 4, Informative

    2040 is far enough off that the current politicians can make all the promises they want and not suffer any repercussions from failing to meet that goal nor any backlash from folks who object.

    2040 is also far enough off that we might reasonably make the transition from fossil fuels by then as that is a long time in technological terms.

    On the other hand, I have 1968, 1986, 1996 and 2004 delivery vans and there is not a whole lot of difference between them. They all get about the same gas mileage. In fact, they get about the same mileage full or empty. The biggest thing you can do when driving a larger vehicle is make sure you're always carrying at capacity for this reason. It's called backhauling. When we make deliveries we also pickup up spent barley and such for our pastured pig farm to optimize our time and vehicle usage. That makes more difference than doubling the gas mileage.

    In Vermont, where we're located, they aren't quite as optimistic as the UK politicians so they set the deadline for this sort of thing to be 2050 to give another decade of slack.

  6. Re:reasonable gamble by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 4, Insightful

    American. Cheered for Brexit. A lot of us did

    Of course you did, and were I American I probably would have done so too because it weakens one of your strongest economic rivals and pretty soon the UK will be turning up cap-in-hand to beg/negotiate a trade deal with the US which will be extremely favourable to the US because the UK will have very little leverage.

    From the UK point of view it is going to be a complete disaster though. If you really believe that argument about freedom then are you also an advocate for states in the US all becoming free nations so they can choose their own course rather than being an economic engine attached to Washington's butt? Some of us prefer to think of the EU as our free nation where we enjoyed self-determination along with Germans, French, Poles, Danes etc. in exactly the same way that Californians, Iowans, Virginians etc. all enjoy self-determination together as a single free nation. The UK leaving the EU will be as big an upheaval as say California leaving the US.

    There are certainly problems with the EU but show me a nation that does not have problems. The adult response to challenges like this is to work together to solve them, not to get in a hissy fit and take your ball home. I have always felt far more European than just British and now, having being denied the right to vote in the referendum, my EU citizenship is still going to be stripped from me. If this is the sort of "democracy" that a "free" Britain will have then I want none of it thanks.