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Heavier Rainfall Will Increase Water Pollution In the Future (nationalgeographic.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report from National Geographic: If climate change continues to progress, increased precipitation could mean detrimental outcomes for water quality in the United States, a major new study warns. An intensifying water cycle can substantially overload waterways with excess nitrogen runoff -- which could near 20 percent by 2100 -- and increase the likelihood of events that severely impair water quality, according to a new study published by Science. When rainfall washes nitrogen and phosphorus from human activities like agriculture and fossil fuel combustion into rivers and lakes, those waterways are overloaded with nutrients, and a phenomenon called "eutrophication" occurs. This can be dangerous for both people and animals. Toxic algal blooms can develop, as well as harmful low-oxygen dead zones known as hypoxia, which can cause negative impacts on human health, aquatic ecosystems, and the economy. In the new study, researchers predict how climate change might increase eutrophication and threats to water resources by using projections from 21 different climate models, each of which was run for three climate scenarios and two different time periods (near future, 2031-2060, and far-future, 2071-2100).

140 of 233 comments (clear)

  1. Baltic sea has this problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    With runoff from farming in all the surrounding countries and a very small connection to the Atlantic the Baltic sea is suffering severely from this problem.

    When it is blowing from the east or southeast the coast up to Stockholm is covered in algea.

    1. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      Early predictions of climate change forecast drought everywhere.

      The next data point will always be alarming. Its caught in the clutches.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    2. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I know, but real life problems are not good for politics... or maybe is otherwise: Politics are not good for real life problems.
      On the other hand despite what some companies tell, acid rain is not as healthy as regular rain, and most rain is poolluted or spread pollution.

    3. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Mjlner · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Eutrophication actually being reported is being caused by fertilizer runoff, not additional rain. Early predictions of climate change forecast drought everywhere. Now we're worrying about excess rain. Are liberals incapable of reporting good news?

      Where do you get the "drought everywhere"? Droughts, yes, but not everywhere. Droughts will be an increasing problem in areas that already suffer from them. Other areas are likely to see more clouds and more rain.

      Just stick to the truth (avoiding straw men) and you'll understand that it really isn't a liberal/conservative issue, it's reality.

      --
      Lemon curry???
    4. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Which is why many people became skeptical of AGW theorists. Logic says that as the entire earth gets warmer, there will be MORE rain not less. Yet, the AGW theorists were telling us that we needed to worry about drought all over the planet.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    5. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by dave420 · · Score: 1

      You're not representing the science accurately at all. Yes, droughts will be a problem, but they will be local. As we have seen.

    6. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by mrclevesque · · Score: 1

      "Yet, the AGW theorists were telling us that we needed to worry about drought all over the planet."

      Not.

    7. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      No, I am not attempting to represent the science. I am representing what the scientists are communicating to the public.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    8. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by omnichad · · Score: 1

      caused by fertilizer runoff, not additional rain

      Are you aware of what moist entity causes it to run off in the first place?

    9. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This is why you skeptics are fucking RETARDED

      Your well thought out argument has changed my mind and forced me to rethink my entire life.

    10. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by rhazz · · Score: 1

      There were several years when the most common predicted effect of carbon warming was drought - endless drought, in every possible place, and there's nothing we can do about it! (Muahahahaha!). Articles like these have been typical:

      WTF? Most of these articles are about droughts that were actually occurring at the time they were reported. Way to defeat your own argument.

    11. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by mrclevesque · · Score: 1

      Before you criticize others just post a link for your claim rather than hand waving to some 'Akbar'.

      "Yet, the AGW theorists were telling us that we needed to worry about drought all over the planet."

      Not. It's obviously wrong that all climate scientists on the planet were making the same claim. That's what I was responding to.

    12. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      "These are a few of the usual suspects doing their typical unscientific scare mongering. "

      Notice how they use their mod points as weapons.

    13. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Most of these articles are about droughts that were actually occurring at the time they were reported. Way to defeat your own argument.

      And which are no longer droughts today. That weather is cyclic does NOT disprove that carbon is a long-term problem we need to address; it disproves the idea that climate change is an unstoppable apocalypse that will do God's work of eliminating humanity.

      Smallpox and starvation were long-term problems once. Then we put applied science to work.
       

    14. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

      A common effect of long term drought in a specific area is flash flooding (due to the dying off or the destruction by fire of desiccated vegetation) which, when the rains return is just what most climate models predict.

      --
      PlaynBass
    15. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

      Odd idea. Have you ever considered reading the science?

      --
      Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
    16. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      I have been told, since I am not a professional in that field, that I am not qualified to do so.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    17. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

      Not being a professional in that field, you are unqualified to critique the science, but there's nothing stopping you from reading research papers. I'd be happy to give a brief overview of some notable ones -- not excepting the work of Drs. Lindzen and Christy. I tend to prefer approaching scientific fields as a historical narrative of dead ends and discoveries as opposed to diving into the current research.

      --
      Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
    18. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by MercTech · · Score: 1

      Try reading the science and not what some fake news journalist that can't comprehend middle school science class tells you the science says.

      --
      NRRPT/RCT
    19. Re:Baltic sea has this problem by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      I was told that only climatologists were qualified to read the "science".

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  2. Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by scdeimos · · Score: 1

    After all something like 78% of the air we breathe is nitrogen.

    1. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Nutria · · Score: 1

      The word "nitrate" is apparently too complicated for the people who read nationalgeographic.com.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    2. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by StevenMaurer · · Score: 1

      I suspect it's more the writer and the proofreader. National Geographic isn't exactly Scientific American.

    3. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Magazines mandate that writers write to a certain audience grade level.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    4. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by hey! · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's called synecdoche. Calling businessmen "suits" and supporters "partisans" is referring to a whole by using a part. By the same token we refer to carbon dioxide as "carbon" and NO3- as "nitrogen".

      In context is is perfectly clear to someone who actually understands what the whole is. To those who do not understand what the whole is calling the whole by its proper name is unlikely to be enlightening.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    5. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Nutria · · Score: 1

      By the same token we refer to carbon dioxide as "carbon" and NO3- as "nitrogen".

      We do? Then what do you call carbon monoxide and NO2-?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    6. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by pi_rules · · Score: 2

      Nitrogen is the name used in describing the macro-nutrients in fertilizer. While you generally see something like ammonium nitrate used as the source of available nitrogen you also have stuff like urea which, while I'm not a chemist, I do not believe is actually a nitrate.

      The end result, however, is that nitrogen is available to the plant which is the ultimate goal. Hence referring to anything in the N of NPK as nitrogen.

    7. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      "I can't comprehend your words because I'm too much of an expert and you used plain English, which I'm allergic too because I'm so educated."

      These people are always running around this place, with their neckbeards all braided into turtlenecks. I always wonder, "Doesn't that itch?"

      It doesn't occur to them that if they can't understand the version that uses 10th grade English, they were probably only pretending to understand the college-level English that they're demanding.

    8. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      Carbon monoxide is rare and called "carbon monoxide" for that reason.

      NO2 is called "smog."

      Any other ESL questions I can help you with?

    9. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by hey! · · Score: 2

      Consider the word "Jack"; it can refer to a playing card, it can be a person's name, it can be an electrical socket, it can be a lifting machine, it can be a flag, or it can be a variety of cheese. On the face of it this should make the word confusing. But it's not.

      Words are not like variables in a programming language. Just as human grammar is context-sensitive, so are the meanings of words. So people in-the-know understand that a "carbon tax" isn't levied on, say, a diamond.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    10. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by rtb61 · · Score: 2

      Whilst they have focused on the nitrates it tends not to be the biggest problem. Increased rainfall also changes movement of moisture through the soil, taking away many soluble elements, increasing porosity of soil, so then larger particles are taken away and then major soil movements, both sink holes and landslips. Also means much more organic material to rot in rivers, sucking up oxygen and releasing methane, a far worse greenhouse gas. There is a real need to slow down the movement of moisture through water catchments, pulling agriculture, industry and housing off water fronts to get more trees and plants to grow on river banks and perhaps at least 100m inland from river banks and ever further, dependent upon the catchment. In Rural areas, every fence line should have a line of trees, preferably at least three rows, associated with it to catch and hold run off. Those trees can serve commercial purposes if done properly, rather than empty headed farmers whining about losing arable land (OK if it washes down river and damages their farm but no one can tell them to plant trees). What will be done, nuthin', it's the nature of US society now.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    11. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Nutria · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Carbon monoxide is rare

      Not in regions of poor combustion.

      NO2 is called "smog."

      Clean your glasses. I wrote NO2-, which is definitely not smog.

      Any other ESL questions I can help you with?

      Any other chemistry (and reading comprehension) questions I can help you with?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    12. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Ashtead · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Bullshit. Look up the etymology of "partisan". Also this is supposedly science. If someone uses names of elements for chemical compounds in a scientific context, I must assume they don't know what they're talking about.

      Herein lies the rub... This context is not scientific but political: "Carbon tax" is not science but politics, and the "Carbon" in question is carbon dioxide, not coal or diamonds. "Nitrogen" is similarly used instead of "nitrates" in this speculation about pollution and changes in water quality.

      --
      SIGBUS @ NO-07.308
    13. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by hord · · Score: 1

      Nitrates or nitrites? You need to be more specific. The article didn't say and you didn't go into an explanation of the difference.

    14. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by hey! · · Score: 2

      We call them "Carbon Monoxide" and "Nitrogen Dioxide". If we are in a context where the only carbon compound we could possibly be interested in is "Carbon Monoxide", then among people who share that context and work closely together it is highly likely those will be abbreviated to "Carbon" and "Nitrogen", and in context it will be perfectly clear although obscure to outsiders.

      This is a natural process called "polysemy" and it is part of how non-mutually understandable human languages eventually arise. Natural and inevitable as it is, it flies in the face how "good" students are taught to think about using words, which is to use them "correctly". There's a lot to be said for that, but ultimately the idea of "correct" is built on a foundation of sand.

      But that hasn't stopped people from trying to make language more precise, but unfortunately all of those efforts have failed. You might be interested in John Wilkins Philosophical Language, which figures in Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle novels. Here's an interesting tidbit: the one useful product that has come out of those failed efforts is the thesaurus. Roget's Thesaurus started out as an attempt to develop a concept index (technically speaking, an ontology) for conducting semantically precise discussions of "philosophical" (then including scientific) matters.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    15. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      Not in regions of poor combustion.

      I have worked in steel mills. CO is definitely NOT rare.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    16. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by hey! · · Score: 3, Informative

      "Carbon" and "Nitrogen". If it is unclear in context, "atomic carbon" and "atomic nitrogen", or (if appropriate) "molecular nitrogen".

      If this seems like a PITA, think of language as something like a compression algorithm. You want to represent the commonest cases in the fewest bits. This might make uncommon cases require more bits to represent. In other words people balance the convenience of omitting "dioxide" frequently with inconvenience of adding "atomic" occasionally.

      This is how people *actually use language. Attempts to make their semantics less context-dependent have consistently failed in the face of convenience.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    17. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      And have you heard anyone calling CO or CO2 "carbon" when in the context of steel mills ?

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    18. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      Or, perhaps those who wish others to take a particular course of action should work harder to make sure that they communicate clearly

      Depends on what you mean by "clearly", but most likely no. Those who wish others to take a particular course of action should work harder to make sure that they communicate in ways that are proven to make others to take a particular course of action. "Clear" communication need not be always the way forward - see why .

      The simplicity of the word "carbon", as compared with that of "carbon-di-oxide" clearly makes it a winner. Especially when people who are involved (voters, shareholders etc.) have no clue what both of the words mean.

      After simplicity achieves the first goal - of not losing your audience, you can appeal to their emotions in other ways. Sharing your dreams, for example.

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    19. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by hey! · · Score: 1

      Somehow I doubt that will convince anyone. But if it did, that person wouldn't be the sharpest tool in the box.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    20. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Ah, I see. The point is to confuse people to get them to do what you want rather than educate and convince them. Well, that just confirms my opinion about AGW.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    21. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      In the context of a steel mill, "Carbon" usually means either the element as it is contained in liquid iron/finished steel or the graphite that you get when you blow out with the liquid oxygen.

      For those in on the environmental monitoring side of things; CO2 is sometimes called "Carbon", informally.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    22. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      Those who wish others to take a particular course of action should work harder to make sure that they communicate in ways that are proven to make others to take a particular course of action.

      In other words, deploy propaganda.

    23. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      Come on, they didn't manage to hold the context in their little brains even long enough to directly respond, how can you expect them to keep the context in mind while explaining their counter-point?

      If they can't comprehend that a rare thing can be locally common, what can you really expect from them? It is like expecting to be able to send your dog to college, it is just not a realistic expectation to place on them.

      They didn't even manage to look up NO2 within the context.

      Maybe working in a steel mill doesn't make him a chemist after all?

    24. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by hey! · · Score: 1

      Bullshit. Look up the etymology of "partisan". Also this is supposedly science. If someone uses names of elements for chemical compounds in a scientific context, I must assume they don't know what they're talking about.

      Spoken like someone who doesn't know any actual professional scientists. You assume scientists talk like your middle school science teacher. They don't.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    25. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      OK. I see it as axiomatic : if you want to post to Slashdot, follow the steps to post to Slashdot. If you want to eat food, follow the steps proven to cause food to be eaten by you. Same for making people to do what you want.

      Interesting word choice, by the way. Propaganda became a bad word only in the last 70-80 years or so in very violent global conditions, before which the UK even had a Propaganda Minister. If conditions could kill millions of people, distorting a few words is not the worst deed they did, right ?

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    26. Re:Surely they mean nitrates and phosphates? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      Scientific papers are also available for the kind perusal of people. If only the people able to understand them completely were to take action against AGW, would we reach anywhere ?

      I estimate fewer than 10,000 people globally can understand the climate science papers proving AGW. What is your estimate ? And is the inability of others to understand them, the fault of those who do understand ?

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  3. It's it by XparXnoiaX · · Score: 2

    Let's pray for a drought in California.

    --
    Irresponsible disclosure is responsible
  4. What happened to the 100 year drought? by huffybadger · · Score: 1

    It seems I read a couple of years back that climate scientist saying due to climate change we were going to have a drought that lasted 100 years. Furthermore, if I recall right they were predicting the end of farming as we know it...

    Did I miss something, or are things being turned on their head?

    1. Re:What happened to the 100 year drought? by Nutria · · Score: 2

      You missed what they actually said, which was "more droughts", not a worldwide 100 year drought.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    2. Re:What happened to the 100 year drought? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      It often seems that things we read a couple years back are a bit fuzzy in our minds. You should check a source when you're going to use it, or else just remember that it was a long time ago when you read it so by now you have no fucking clue. If you presume that you have no clue, then whenever you find having a clue useful you'll realize you have to look the shit up again. So for example when you're about to type some stupid moronic shit with some claim like "that lasted 100 years" you'll realize that "100 years" is a fact, and facts are objective, and since you didn't just look it up to check you have no fucking clue and shouldn't try to state a fact.

    3. Re:What happened to the 100 year drought? by huffybadger · · Score: 1

      What I did learn is... Be careful about asking about what appears to be inconsistency with prior articles, some people may not like it...

      Your not in this category... Most that replied were pretty neutral... But one that did needs to switch to decaf and take more x-lax...

    4. Re:What happened to the 100 year drought? by huffybadger · · Score: 1

      Here are some non-slashdot articles for you as well...

      As you can see my question was not unreasonable...

      https://www.ecowatch.com/megad...

      https://www.livescience.com/21...

    5. Re:What happened to the 100 year drought? by slack_justyb · · Score: 1

      In all fairness that is that site's take on the paper that was published. The actual paper that they cite in it's paper states that a 40-year drought in the southwest region of the US (mostly CA), is roughly sitting at 12% a chance of starting within the next two decades. So sometime between when that paper was published (2015) and 2035, there is a 12% chance of a 40-year drought kicking off.

      Lesson to learn here, you really shouldn't be taking a news site's ability to report science as fact. In fact, I'm paraphrasing as well since I really don't have the time to go over the whole paper, but you should give it a read. It's interesting to say the least.

  5. Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Phosphates have already been banned in dishwasher detergents since 2010 (that's why your glasses have been getting so cloudy and scale is building up), and phosphates aren't in hand soap and shampoo. And high phosphate fertilizer is already being banned in the US. So there isn't additional phosphates going into the water system beyond today's rates.

    So basically, global warming is no longer causing droughts, but now 20% more rain. Again, it all points to conditions for increased vegetative growth, which means higher food stocks and more CO2 processing. Sounds great to me!

    1. Re:Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by Aighearach · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So basically, global warming is no longer causing droughts, but now 20% more rain.

      Earth has more than one place. More than one concurrent weather event. Furthermore, weather and climate are different. And drought and increased rainfall can happen together; less frequent rain, with heavier storms when it does rain. You'll still measure increased plant growth, but it won't be the food plants, it will be the pioneer (weed) plants.

    2. Re:Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The problem is that weather is chaotic. As you add energy to the climate, hot places will tend to become hotter, the rainy places will tend to become rainier, but you will also get more freak events that do not correspond to the normal rules because adding more energy to the system makes new types of events possible. Droughts become longer... but may be punctuated by flash floods.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by PoopJuggler · · Score: 1

      it all points to conditions for increased vegetative growth, which means higher food stocks and more CO2 processing. Sounds great to me!

      Yeah, and the million other tiny ancillary effects that cumulatively add up to devastation to our habitat and ecosystems.

    4. Re:Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by slinches · · Score: 1

      How is this insightful? Haven't we developed a set of technologies collectively called "Agriculture" that allow use to cope with and make use of variable weather to grow useful crops? What is changing so drastically that makes it impossible to adapt and improve our technologies to accommodate?

      --
      Knowledge Brings Fear
    5. Re:Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      No, Mr. Potter, that isn't the way farming works. You ask me some questions, there are answers that are very relevant and easy for you to look up. If you're really that ignorant, me explaining things like the "dustbowl" isn't going to make it through your thick skull, so I'll just self-righteously tell you to look it the fuck up.

    6. Re:Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by slack_justyb · · Score: 1

      Well that depends on your definition of "Agriculture". Are we talking growing plants or are we getting into GMO? Additionally, it's not a nothing condition. I think parent of your comment might be stretching a bit, but there will be a decrease, and each 1% decrease in yield or 1% increase in cost to grow, goes directly into the cost you pay at the store.

      Good example. Wheat in the US. The kernels inside of the wheat, where we get flour, need a pretty stable environment. Upset the environment too much and you get falling numbers. Now we can compensate for that by taking more raw wheat into the batch to be milled, the side effect of that means that you get less refined good per bushel of raw good. Even if that's just a 1% decrease, that's 1% of all wheat that's having to go into enriching the batch as opposed to being sold. I won't go deeper here, but there's all kinds of books that have been published on the increase in falling numbers in US wheat production.

      Now if you get into GMO there's all that stickiness (that is totally unfounded, seriously folks, GMOs are not going to turn you into a zombie) that goes along with it. But if nothing changes, basically the only things we will be able to grow are things we've invented in labs. It's kind of a strange thing to think that there is a good chance that one day, the only things people eat, are the things they created in a lab. The environment is some areas is changing faster than evolution acts. We've got technology to overcome that, the thing would be then that we're picking winners and losers on who gets to survive in a warmer world. Okay we'll modify the cow DNA to survive because they're so tasty. We'll modify the cat DNA to survive because they're so funny. F*** spiders, they can go extinct. I find the idea of it one part thrilling and one part horrifying.

      Agriculture only goes so far when you also have to make stuff that people can afford (but if cost of the final product is no concern, then yeah, Mother Nature can go pop right on off there), GMO can take the topic into directions that sound like an Asimov novel. It's not impossible, we're humans and we're really cunning monkeys, but it's not about loosing everything, it's trying to maintain the lifestyle we have now, which doesn't seem like it is going to be possible circa 2100.

    7. Re:Yeah, but didn't we ban phosphates already? by slinches · · Score: 1

      In my opinion, agriculture covers everything from canals and reservoirs to GMO and beyond. But fundamentally my question was that if we have more turnover in the water cycle and more CO2 in the atmosphere, why would we not be able to take advantage of those increased resources? Thank you for the thoughtful response. I see that some costs will go up predictably and raising the quality of life for the developing global economies to current western standards doesn't appear sustainable, but what can't be accounted for are the novel increases in efficiency that technological development provides. I guess I'm just optimistic that the cunning monkeys that we are will be able to figure out a way. It's what we've done since we developed our first tools and our ability to develop new technology and adapt certainly doesn't seem to be slowing down any.

      --
      Knowledge Brings Fear
  6. I'll Buy This One by medv4380 · · Score: 1

    But only this one. The increase in rain is real starting around 2005. I don't buy the Global Warming Claim that it's CO2 caused because both the Pan Evaporation Rate and the Precipitation measurements by weather stations agree that it started only after 2005. The issue is a bit more concerning when you're no longer blind to the Global Warming Hype Train. I'd love to publish the facts on it too but Eleven Hundred Dollars to publish seven pages and some graphs is a bit outside of my price range.

  7. Re:Broken Logic by burtosis · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Exactly this. The real problem is soluable nitrogen fertilizer used on lawns and crops. The lake near my house 70 years ago had good water clarity and supplied ice to the city, it was cut up and delivered to iceboxes. Now it's a green sludge in the summer and it's even pretty bad in the winter time (from all the dead algae). The only real difference is all the fertilizer used upstream. It's even worse in places like Florida where massive blooms from farming choke wildlife out as it washes out to sea.

  8. Read it again by StevenMaurer · · Score: 1

    Increased nitrate runoff means that the waterways get choked with nitrates and algae growing so fast that it created an anaerobic environment when it dies. This is the reverse of what you were thinking it said.

    1. Re:Read it again by bagboy · · Score: 1

      Nope. Increased nitrate (which comes from soil - not precipitation) comes from humans overgrowing and fertilizing. Stop overgrowing and fertilizing and the increased nitrate goes away. It could rain all it wants if we didn't put the "extras" in the soil and we'd be fine. This is NOT a result of climate change. It is a result of human interaction with the soil.

    2. Re:Read it again by PPH · · Score: 1

      And with a given nitrate production, an increase in rainfall would tend to dilute the nitrates in the runoff.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    3. Re:Read it again by bagboy · · Score: 1

      Don't need one. No extra nitrates in soil by mankind. More precipitation by climate change = no toxic bloom. Conclusion = More precipitation by climate change does not equal toxic blooms. Unfortunately, those pushing gloom and doom by all things climate change and linking everything under the sun to it are using broken logic and harming their actual agenda.

    4. Re:Read it again by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      And with a given nitrate production, an increase in rainfall would tend to dilute the nitrates in the runoff.

      Dilution doesn't matter because of concentration. Not just bioconcentration, which is one reason it definitely doesn't matter, but also the simple fact that like materials tend to concentrate in specific locations due to their physical properties.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    5. Re:Read it again by PPH · · Score: 1

      Dilution doesn't matter because of concentration.

      Basic chemistry. When you dilute something, its concentration goes down.

      Not just bioconcentration

      You are mis-using this term. Bioconcentration is what organisms do inside their bodies with a substance once they consume it.

      Water pollution is measured by the amount of solute in some quantity of water. Add more water and the concentration goes down. That's why you see more algae and pond scum in stagnant water.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    6. Re:Read it again by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      You are mis-using this term. Bioconcentration is what organisms do inside their bodies with a substance once they consume it.

      I am not misusing the term. Bioconcentration is what happens in the food chain. The filter feeders get stuff out of the water, they get eaten by larger things, and so on and so forth. This re-concentrates the dispersed compounds.

      Add more water and the concentration goes down. That's why you see more algae and pond scum in stagnant water.

      You see algae and pond scum in stagnant or slow-moving water because it's not washed away, it has a chance to accumulate. But the speed of water isn't defined by the amount of water alone, it's defined by the amount of water flowing through a given point at any given time. You're trying to grossly oversimplify the problem until your solutions make sense, but the real world can't be simplified with a magic wand.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  9. Re:Question Validity by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    It doesn't make sense with what I know of the real world.

    Well, of course, most people know very little about things that are so complex that computer models are used for them. That's the whole reason for those models.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  10. Re:Broken Logic by bagboy · · Score: 1

    or your method - "I analyze comments and give my opinion but do not back it up with more than conjecture."

  11. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by hey! · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If we were talking about pure rainwater falling directly into bodies of water, it would. But we're talking about runoff. After that initially pure water runs over the land it's not so pure by the time it reaches a natural water body.

    Take an empty cup and fill it from a city gutter during a heavy rain. Now drink it. Not an attractive proposition, is it?

    In the case of eutrophication, we're worried about fertilizers applied to crops and lawns. This is in the form of various highly soluble nitrogen and phosphorous salts which are highly soluble and readily washed away. People use these highly soluble compounds because they stimulate rapid plant growth. These do the same thing for microorganisms when they reach a marine or fresh water body.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  12. Re:Broken Logic by hey! · · Score: 1

    It's both.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  13. In related news ... by PPH · · Score: 1

    ... no measurable precipitation in Seattle for 40 days.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  14. Drought or increased rainfall: are you baffled? by Picodon · · Score: 5, Informative

    For those who are merely confused and ignorant, yet not fully deprived of intellectual honesty or interest in learning, here are two excerpts from Wikipedia that may help:

        “Assuming high growth in GHG emissions (IPCC scenario RCP8.5), presently dry regions may be affected by an increase in the risk of drought and reductions in soil moisture. Over most of the mid-latitude land masses and wet tropical regions, extreme precipitation events will very likely become more intense and frequent.” (in “Effects of global warming”).

        “The warmer atmospheric temperatures observed over the past decades are expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more extreme rainfall events. Erosion and soil degradation is more likely to occur.” (in “Climate change and agriculture”).

    1. Re:Drought or increased rainfall: are you baffled? by blindseer · · Score: 1, Insightful

      So more heat in the air means more clouds? The same clouds that cool the earth? It's almost as if the atmosphere has a natural mechanism to maintain a fairly even the temperature on the surface.

      Oh, and "extreme precipitation events"? You mean these things we call "storms"? That's nothing new.

      Sometimes it's wet, sometimes it's dry. Climate changes, no doubt about that. Not much we can do about it either.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    2. Re:Drought or increased rainfall: are you baffled? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      So more heat in the air means more clouds? The same clouds that cool the earth?

      Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. This is not news. HTH, HAND!

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:Drought or increased rainfall: are you baffled? by syn3rg · · Score: 1

      Speaking of intellectual honesty, when the loudest voices proclaiming AGW as a disaster have an actual carbon-footprint lower than mine, I'll pay attention to when they say. But as long as they jet off to Tahiti to preach to me why I should give up my automobile and air conditioning, I'll simply consider the whole thing a racket to shake down governments and corporations.

      “What you do speaks so loudly I can't hear what you say.”
      --Ralph Waldo Emerson

      --
      The contents of this message have been doubly encrypted by ROT13
  15. Re:Question Validity by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Even chaotic systems tend to have macrostates. Knowing all microstate details is rarely needed or desirable.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  16. By the year 2100? by blindseer · · Score: 4, Interesting

    That's 80+ years from now, in other words we have time.

    I hear that the sea levels are rising.... at about a foot per century. We can adjust to that without getting all in a panic.

    I've been told that the corn belt is moving north. Unless this happens in the span of a single growing season then I find it hard to get worked up about this. Farmers already rotate crops for reasons of keeping soil in good shape. If over a few decades the rotation of crops needs adjusting then they'll figure it out.

    Rain this, droughts that, hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, blah, blah blah. We got this figured out.

    We've all been hearing this panic for decades now. All we are doing is getting the next generation stressed out over nothing. They are getting bombarded with climate change disasters in movies, cartoons, in the news, and on and on. Kids can't get away from this but when they grow up and have to deal with this on their own they will realize like I did that this is a big nothing.

    A quick read of the comments on this article so far tells me that I'm not alone in how I feel on this. The climate change alarmists have been pushing the panic button so often for so long, with nothing to really show for it, that no one pays attention any more.

    Here's the problem now. If this climate change that is coming is in fact a real problem then we're all screwed anyway because no one listens any more. Because the climate change alarmists would not police themselves and point out bad science when it came up no one can tell what is true any more.

    Again, 80 years, we have time.

    --
    I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    1. Re:By the year 2100? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Quick quiz, one inch in ocean level rise results in what increase in storm surge distances onshore?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:By the year 2100? by dave420 · · Score: 1

      The corn belt is moving north. When it runs so far north it's no longer near any farmers or arable land or infrastructure, it ceases to exist. It also doesn't understand national borders, and will gracefully move past them like they don't exist.

      Sea levels rising aren't scary because things will be gradually submerged, they're scary because they multiply storm surges, which can swamp even the most intense flood protection systems.

      It's fine you don't want to pay attention to the science - just don't pretend you have and you've found nothing to be concerned about. Your description of these issues shows you really aren't that well versed in this, which is a bit surprising given your strong opinion on the matter. It's almost as if your motivation for disagreeing with the science doesn't come from the science itself... Weird...

    3. Re:By the year 2100? by religionofpeas · · Score: 1

      I hear that the sea levels are rising.... at about a foot per century. We can adjust to that without getting all in a panic.

      How are you going to protect Florida, where the ground is made from porous limestone, and the sea will penetrate underneath levees ?

    4. Re:By the year 2100? by Xyrus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's 80+ years from now, in other words we have time.

      Really? And how, do you plan to deal with the accumulated buildup of 200 years in the span of 80 when a good portion of the populace don't even understand the basic science and refuse to accept reality? Climate change is bringing about a whole host of issues, a number of which need to be dealt with far in advance. We're already 40 years behind the curve.

      Furthermore, the climate system lags inputs by a good 30 years. In other words, if you think you have a problem now, it will be worse 30 years later.

      I hear that the sea levels are rising.... at about a foot per century. We can adjust to that without getting all in a panic.

      You "hear" incorrectly. Assuming no runaway feedbacks kick off, the expected increase by the end of the century is between 1 and 2 meters. As far as dealing with it, we're already FAILING. Places like Miami flood during high tide now. Salt water intrusion is already a problem. Even a 1 meter rise would present significant challenges, and shoring up thousands of miles of coast to deal with that (not to mention hurricanes) is neither trivial nor quick.

      I've been told that the corn belt is moving north. Unless this happens in the span of a single growing season then I find it hard to get worked up about this. Farmers already rotate crops for reasons of keeping soil in good shape. If over a few decades the rotation of crops needs adjusting then they'll figure it out.

      This is why ignorance is dangerous. You do not simply "move" the agricultural infrastructure that's been developed over the past century north. Such an effort would take decades, even if were feasible. There's are REASONS why the corn belt is where it is. Arable land, ideal climate, etc. allows for very productive farming. But what's north of that? Are there aquifers to support such operations? Will the sail be able to handle the stress? Will the climate actually be conducive? Can the crops handle the new conditions?

      It takes more than warm weather to grow crops at scale. You have to have the right mix of conditions. There are very few places on our planet where mass agriculture can be done consistently and productively. Sure, you can move to a new area if prices get high enough to make it feasible to turn someplace like, say, the Canadian Shield into farmland, but I don't think paying $30 for a loaf of bread is "dealing" with the problem.

      Rain this, droughts that, hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, blah, blah blah. We got this figured out.

      No, we really don't. If you've been paying attention over the past decade, there are several prominent examples of exactly how NOT figured out things are. First to mind is the record heat/drought in Russia a few years back that caused them to cease exports. And that's just a taste. If a similar event caused the US to cease exports there would be significant global repercussions. If you think we're immune to such things, you're extremely naive.

      We've all been hearing this panic for decades now. All we are doing is getting the next generation stressed out over nothing. They are getting bombarded with climate change disasters in movies, cartoons, in the news, and on and on. Kids can't get away from this but when they grow up and have to deal with this on their own they will realize like I did that this is a big nothing.

      The only reason you think it's a "big nothing" is because it hasn't impacted you personally (it actually has, you just aren't paying attention). Climate change happens over decades. It's slow boiling a frog. You and people like you expect an immediate cause and effect. The climate system doesn't work that way short of major catastrophes.

      A quick read of the comments on this article so far tells me that I'm not alone in how I feel on this. The climate change alarmists have been pushing the panic button

      --
      ~X~
    5. Re:By the year 2100? by s.petry · · Score: 1

      42

      --

      -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

    6. Re:By the year 2100? by cmdr_klarg · · Score: 1

      That's 80+ years from now, in other words we have time.

      Translation: I'll be dead by then, so I don't give a fuck. Fuck the future.

      --
      THE SOFTWARE, IT NO WORKY!!!
    7. Re:By the year 2100? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This is why ignorance is dangerous. You do not simply "move" the agricultural infrastructure that's been developed over the past century north.

      Actually, you do.

      I grew up on a farm and I won't claim to be some sort of agriculture expert I learned a few things. A combine harvester is an amazing piece of machinery, it is capable of harvesting many kinds of crops with great ease and efficiency. Where I grew up the primary crops were corn, soybeans, and alfalfa. We had a combine with two harvester "heads", one for corn and one for soybeans. There's a type of head that is an "all-crop" type that can be used for wheat, soybeans, and even corn if one is desperate (since a dedicated corn head is much easier on the harvester), as well as other crops. Most farmers in the area had two heads, a dedicated corn head and a soybean or all-crop head if they grew wheat or something else. I've seen fields of sunflowers but I don't know how those are harvested.

      We had a "haybine" for cutting the alfalfa, it'd put the hay in rows to dry before for baling. We had a "chopper" that would chop up the whole corn stalk or hay for silage. We also had what I think was just called a "mower" which was a rather crude and simple device that could cut down most any crop and lay it on the ground for picking up later with some other piece of equipment, or leave on the ground for grazing, or just keep the weeds down on the verges of the fields. The mower also served as a backup since if the haybine or whatever was broken while the sun shined then the crops had to be taken in, even if that meant losing some crop from using a non-optimal piece of equipment.

      I say this because even the typical small time farmer like my dad was prepared to plant and harvest multiple crops. The crops would be sold to local feedlots or commodity dealers. I remember spending the week before Thanksgiving putting seed in the shed for planting in the spring. That's because dad had already signed contracts for next season's corn weeks or months earlier, bought the seed, and taken delivery of the seed months before planting. He's planning two years ahead. The rest of the industry is thinking at least that far ahead as well.

      If or when the corn belt moves the equipment will move with it as farmers replace worn machinery. Grain silos can shift as well since they have equipment that handles all kinds of crops as well. If some new crop shows up, and an existing one disappears, they'll shift equipment too as things wear out. Trucks, trains, and barges can move crops with great speed and efficiency if for some reason local facilities are overwhelmed. Although I remember flooding making movement difficult, in which case corn was piled up in improvised bins in parking lots and such until the corn could move again.

      My grandparents lived in Canada for a while and with the exception of there being more snow and wheat, and not much corn, the farming was not all that different than in the USA.

      We have decades to adjust while the industry can adjust in months or years.

  17. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Some people will get more rain, mostly places that already get a lot of rain, and other places will get less rain. Mostly places that already only get a little bit.

    You're confused because there is more than one place. Sorry it is all so confusing.

  18. Re:Question Validity by Nutria · · Score: 1

    I can't tell whether or not you're serious, or contrived an excellent example of the anecdotal fallacy.

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
  19. Re:Broken Logic by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Where I live we have increased incidence of toxic algal blooms in mountain lakes that have no upstream agriculture or residences at all.

    Having an anecdote provides you with negative knowledge; you didn't learn anything, but you thought you did.

  20. Re:Question Validity by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    "That's just math and I question its validity. It doesn't make sense [to me] with what I know."

    It always cracks me up to find people on the interwebs who don't even know what a computer is. Don't worry, don't worry, you don't need to know what it all means. You don't need to worry about where pr0n comes from, or how the trucks get the data down the information superhighway. Just trust that there are kittens in the tubes and everything will keep moving, and if not, just click reload for a couple hours.

  21. Very heavy rain causes landslides by spinitch · · Score: 1

    Torrential rains in Japan at historic levels caused landslides destroyed homes and farms. Thousands evacuated from homes. Meanwhile in Tokyo drainage systems are being upgraded. Flooding nothing new but prior mitigation efforts still fall short sometimes. Trying to keep up with nature requires prioritizing. Bet Tepco wishes it prioritized that Higher Fukushima wall , oh well hindsight.

  22. Re:Question Validity by Nutria · · Score: 1

    It always cracks me up to find people on the interwebs who don't even know what a computer is.

    It always cracks me up when someone with a 5 digit ID tries to be snarky and then falls flat on his face because he doesn't know that computer doesn't sprinkle magic pixie dust on mathematical models, miraculously making them super-duper awesome-accurate.

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
  23. Re:Wait Just A Darn Minute Here! by riverat1 · · Score: 1, Interesting

    I thought "climate change" was supposed to cause worldwide droughts? If you can imagine just any fear you want as being the result of "climate change", then the entire concept becomes meaningless.

    Of course, it's meaningless to begin with. "Change" is what the climate DOES, always has, always will. The entire Gore-ful panic is designed to separate the people from their money and to allow the politicians to fun things forever.

    And how is it that you know that climate has changed in the past. Do you really believe the scientists who told you this? They are the same scientists who you don't believe when they tell you that AGW is a problem. Are you just going to cherry pick based on what you want to believe?

  24. Re:Wait Just A Darn Minute Here! by jandersen · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I thought "climate change" was supposed to cause worldwide droughts? If you can imagine just any fear you want as being the result of "climate change", then the entire concept becomes meaningless.

    The term "climate change" is a kind of short-hand, which refers to the changes that are caused by human activities on top of natural climate variation. The one thing that more than anything else defines man-made climate change is the increased energy retention in the atmosphere, that we can measure as an increase in the average temperature across the whole planet and smoothed out over a relatively long period of time, which is above what we would have expected to find from natural causes. But locally, on a day to day basis, there will be big variations in temperature, and secondarily in air pressure, wind speed, humidity, precipitation etc - the tendency is to make these variations stronger, so droughts may become worse, rainfall may become heavier, storms more violent, heatwaves hotter and more frequent, and yes, you will in places see much more snow and more severe cold snaps.

    There is an experiment that I think most will have seen in school at some point, which explains a lot about this: You take a large glass tank with water, place a Bunsen burner under it, and drop a crystal of some water soluble colour over the flame; what you see is the colour rising up, then curling back down - ie turbulence. If you measure the temperature in different places, you will probably get high readings in the column over the flame, but low readings in an area around the flame, where colder water is being sucked in - and high readings near the top edges as well; this also happens to our atmosphere: the flame is hot near equator, the air rises and blows up to the polar regions, where it is sucked down, because cold air is suck in near the ground at the equator. One of the major differences is that the atmosphere is a very thin layer: 10 miles deep, spread oout over a circumference of 25000 miles, which would correspond to the glass tank in your school laboratory being 10 cm high and 250 m wide, which means that any turbulence becomes much more localised, which translates into the much more chaotic system that is our weather.

  25. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    The reason it is confusing is because articles like this one are designed to scare people into making the decisions preferred by the authors rather than to allow people to make informed decisions. The author does not want people to make an informed decision because if they do they will probably not make the decision he or she would prefer.


    This has been the problem with the AGW alarmists from the beginning. From the beginning, the point of the theory has been to scare people into certain political decisions, not to predict how the climate will behave in the future. As long as it does the first it is irrelevant to the people involved how accurately it does the second...which is why it has done such a poor job at the first.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  26. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by hord · · Score: 1

    It dilutes it from larger areas by concentrating it into small areas. Look at all the rivers on a land map and realize that those are the singular channels for large rain run off for the entire land mass. Now what happens when a large amount of material is rapidly dumped into those small channels? You get higher concentrations of dissolved chemicals per unit volume of water compared to surrounding areas. This eventually builds up and puts nitrogen stress on a downstream area according to the logic.

  27. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    If the scientists do not want people to react to the reporting of it they need to do a better job of calling out those who are using it to advance the political ideas they agree with and not just those who oppose their political preferences.

    This article points out the problem clearly. When Rick Perry answered an ambiguous question with an answer which did not support AGW alarmism (it also did not support AGW denialism either) the American Meteorological Society called him out on it. Yet, the AMS remained silent when various members of the previous administration told outright untruths that advanced AGW alarmism. If they want to be taken seriously, scientists need to call out those who misrepresent the science in order to advance political agendas with which the scientists agree, not just those who are advancing political agendas with which they disagree.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  28. Re:Wait Just A Darn Minute Here! by Terwin · · Score: 1

    I thought "climate change" was supposed to cause worldwide droughts? If you can imagine just any fear you want as being the result of "climate change", then the entire concept becomes meaningless.

    Of course, it's meaningless to begin with. "Change" is what the climate DOES, always has, always will. The entire Gore-ful panic is designed to separate the people from their money and to allow the politicians to fun things forever.

    And how is it that you know that climate has changed in the past. Do you really believe the scientists who told you this? They are the same scientists who you don't believe when they tell you that AGW is a problem. Are you just going to cherry pick based on what you want to believe?

    When someone says 'according to my research, X seems to be the case', people will generally say, meh, ok.

    When someone says 'X is the case and therefore everyone must do Y' people get very suspicious, especially when Y is something that enriches the speaker at the expense of the audience.

    Add in bits like 'or humanity is domed' or 'even if I am wrong the risk is too great to ignore' and you lose even more credibility. Spokespeople who do not practice what they preach will quickly show any cause to be a scam, even if it is not(or not entirely).
    If enough time passes that some of those dooms-day predictions turn out to be provably false, then you lose even more credibility.

    Unfortunately, even if AGW turns out to be an immediate existential threat to humanity, the politicians and other shysters have driven it's credibility so far underground that the name had to be changed twice(global cooling -> global warming -> climate change). And the continued exaggerations and FUD are taking it past the point where for many people, an unwashed hobo yelling about martians on a street corner while wearing a placard saying 'the end is near' is more credible.

    TL;DR:
    The scientists with no vested interest in what we believe are much more credible than the people who try to control others based on FUD, even if that FUD may have some scientific basis behind parts of it. (and that FUD makes any real science related to it much harder to believe)

  29. Re:Thicker, Deeper, Heavier by jedidiah · · Score: 1

    It's all global warming, regardless of whatever it is and it's all bad. Even if it is something that seems good like less drought.

    --
    A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
  30. Can't we Plan for the Problem? by Neuronwelder · · Score: 1

    This does not stop the problem of not going Green, but.. They could dig holes for lakes that would collect the excess rainfall, and meter it back out of the lake as things dry up. No more houses on low lying land - or you could elevate the houses on hills - or even on flooding planes make houseboats, disguised as houses, but float in emergencies.

  31. It's very convenient by argStyopa · · Score: 3

    Actually, it's a pretty convenient theory.

    If global warming is a thing, either it will get wetter or it will get drier.
    If it gets drier, of course drought, sky falling, etc as per the news in California for the last couple of years.
    If it gets wetter, as this article asserts, it will be terrible for all sorts of reasons.

    It's a perfect theory: no matter what happens, it can be interpreted to be bad, and it's humans' fault.

    It used to be that the weather just changed, and we didn't try to blame anyone for it.

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:It's very convenient by PoopJuggler · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Yeah it seems unlikely that pumping billions of tons of pollution into the atmosphere every year could have any effect on the climate...

    2. Re:It's very convenient by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      Natural processes emit and absorb about 440 gigatons of CO2. I assume that's the pollutant you're talking about, since you invoked Global Warming.
      Humans? About 5% of that.

      The assertion that a 5 BILLION year old complex system, which has sustained MUCH higher and lower temperatures, and whose primary components (such as solar activity, Milankovitch cycles, vulcanism (and/or plate tectonics, depending on the scale you're talking about), topological and ecosystemic changes, albedo changes (both natural and anthropogenic), etc) are several orders of magnitude more impactful than even James Hansen's worst CO2 fever-dreams, somehow survived all those changes and yet now happens to have ended up balanced on such a precarious knife-edge of inputs and outputs that not only is the teensy input of CO2 meaningful, but the whole system is so narrowly sensitive that the human bits - barely 5% - will prove the tipping-point that wrecks it all.

      (This, of course, sets aside as a entirely begged question that the system is, was, or ever shall be stable. Unless you're deeply relgious (hmmm?) there's no compelling reason that this system has found some sort of magical Goldilocks of perpetual bliss that shall continue in perpetuity until the sun expands and consumes this rocky planetoid.

      I'd laugh, if I wasn't crying that people actually believe this.

      --
      -Styopa
    3. Re:It's very convenient by galenanorth · · Score: 1

      No one said Earth's climate was stable, far from it. Quit setting up strawmen arguments. If you had bothered to look into the state of the research, you'd see that 1) The annual amount of CO2 emissions released is 100 times more than the amount of CO2 released by volcanism, although it is true that a supervolcano can wreck that at any moment. Everything else, solar irradiance included, is consistent across thousands of years. You are trying to have it both ways. It is precisely because the factors like albedo, cloud coverage, etc so massively outweigh everything else that a change in these characteristics caused by a drastic enough change in temperature can cause a significant negative feedback loop. The two things to investigate are how CO2 increase affects temperature and how an arbitrary temperature increase of X degrees would interact with these processes. 2) Unlike previous extremes, these changes are taking place while humans are around. Just because these temperatures existed a few thousand or million years ago does not mean that any of those environments are optimal for humans or that everything will be fine. You say "It's a perfect theory: no matter what happens, it can be interpreted to be bad, and it's humans' fault." but do you really expect there to be winter headlines about how global warming means fewer deaths from cold exposure among the homeless and the elderly? The point is that global productivity will be negatively impacted. This is like expecting the media to report "The good news is that the traffic congestion problem has improved" during a viral outbreak. Earth's climate will inevitably change over thousands of years. We should take every opportunity to prevent drastic changes from occurring over decades so that countries won't have to react to those changes so suddenly. 3) The temperature and the amount of carbon dioxide aside, the most important thing is that the rates of change are unprecedented, as far as scientists can tell. Species go extinct because they are unable to adapt quickly enough to changes in their environment. 4) You pretend that just because Earth has had life while enduring temperature extremes for so long, this means that it implies the system is not at all sensitive to minor changes in climate forcing. The past incidents are recognized as mass extinctions, with the Permian extinction's rise in CO2 being related to volcanism (see point 1).

    4. Re:It's very convenient by galenanorth · · Score: 1

      Frankly, global warming has a metric which can be used to test whether it is bad, whether it will cause a net loss for the global economy rather than the impact of any particular issue. Yes, it can be bad whether the Earth becomes drier or wetter as a whole, because if Earth's climate were becoming more suitable for human habitation, it has to outweigh the economic cost of adapting to the climate change locale by locale. That is the nature of change, in the way that you have to expend some energy reacting by putting on or taking off a jacket.

  32. Re:Droughts? it's climate change! Floods, it's cli by PoopJuggler · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Ah cynicism, the metaphysical mechanism that can be used to mask ignorance for every possible outcome.

  33. Hypoxia is not a noun by omnichad · · Score: 1

    harmful low-oxygen dead zones known as hypoxia

    I know Slashdot is full enough of pedants, but hypoxia is a name for the phenomenon/condition - not the name of the place. You could call it a hypoxic zone. You could call the state of the area hypoxia. You can't call the place hypoxia.

  34. Science junk on both sides by s.petry · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I don't know anyone that would not admit that pollution is a problem. Plastic waste from _all_over making up huge masses in the oceans is an easy example. TFA and AGW proponents both have the same problem, which is complaining about the wrong stuff. Nitrogen is fertilizer for plants, and CO2 is converted by plants into O2. If those two things are really a concern, simply allowing plants to grow is the best possible answer. Do away with Nitrogen or CO2, and all the plants die. With them, goes the humans and everything else.

    We don't see any reasonable presentation of the problems, and the solutions presented are to simply get rich scams for the wealthy as they spread around the wealth of the middle class to make all the peons poor. Win-win for those few, and a big middle finger to the rest of humanity.

    Looking at your list, amazing that you put leaded gasoline and ozone into your list. CFCs were banned in the 70s because it was found to be harmful, and SCIENCE was able to prove it. Lead is harmful to humans and causes all kinds of problems both physically and mentally. Again, SCIENCE was able to prove it. We not only banned leaded gasoline, but leaded paint, lead pencils, and lead plumbing. People overall didn't have any problem with the solution, which was an outright ban.

    These claims of CO2 BAD! and Nitrogen BAD! are false claims, easily provable by SCIENCE. Get the claim right, and people would listen. Get the right solution, and people will listen. "GIVE DE GUBMT MONEY!" is NOT a solution!

    --

    -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

  35. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    If the scientists do not want people to react to the reporting of it they need to do a better job of calling out those who are using it to advance the political ideas they agree with and not just those who oppose their political preferences.

    No.

    1. Scientists (especially those not in cognitive sciences) don't know how to convince people to do things. Even those that do know how to, need not be skilled in doing it - like the aspects of thinking on one's feet, acting, emoting, judging the audience's emotions and reacting quickly to them etc.

    2. Everyone need not know / do everything. There is a reason division of labour has helped mankind greatly.

    So no, scientists do not need to do a better job of calling out those .... They just need to publish papers and critique other papers.

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  36. Re:Question Validity by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    Actually, I do computer models and I farm and I am a scientist. So I know a lot about the real world, computer modeling and such. Your attack is not valid. Try debating the issue rather than attacking the person.

  37. It's happening already by neo-mkrey · · Score: 1
  38. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    Well sure, but if they are only going to call out people they disagree with politically and not those they agree with (especially when the latter get the science more wrong than the former, as in the article I linked previously) people are going to realize that they are hypocrites and their "science" is being conducted to advance their politics.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  39. Then multiple things wrong with their models by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    First, it is near certain that gas/diesel will be nearly, if not fully, done being used for transportation. By 2040, if not closer to 2035, the majority of vehicles will be electric, though it is possible that later on, something like H2 could take over for some vehicles.
    Secondly, Farming is undergoing MASSIVE changes. by 2050, if not sooner, most of it will not only be automated, but possible green-housed. Regardless, we will no longer see the massive spraying of fields that we see today. Instead, it will be DIRECTLY applied to the plant. That will include fertilizers as well as pesticides. The nice thing is that it will be a FRACTION of the amount that we currently use.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  40. Re:What a steaming pile! by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    1. Scientists (especially those not in cognitive sciences) don't know how to convince people to do things. Even those that do know how to, need not be skilled in doing it - like the aspects of thinking on one's feet, acting, emoting, judging the audience's emotions and reacting quickly to them etc.

    False, and even a cursory study of history proves you false. "Science" gets funding to come to certain conclusions all the time. "Scientists" write extensively on the dilemmas they face when their morality gets challenged by the "Science" they are paid to do. "Scientists" are not the majority of people out there selling political agendas with said "Science". Examples are so easy to find that any citation request will be met with riducule!

    I take your word that what you are calling "False" must be false, but it sure is not my statement no. 1 re-quoted above.

    A. Are you saying scientists are experts in convincing people to do things ?

    B. Are you saying scientists possess the skills required to convince people ?

    Any of these are not coming out in your words.

    As for me,

    Science" gets funding to come to certain conclusions all the time. "Scientists" write extensively on the dilemmas they face when their morality gets challenged by the "Science" they are paid to do. "Scientists" are not the majority of people out there selling political agendas with said "Science".

    I agree to all of these, so I don't see which statement of mine you are saying is "False" here, and what evidence you are presenting for it.

    I would be inclined to believe you are replying to some completely different post from what you intended, but you quote extensively from my post.

    When the solution presented to the masses is "GIVE US ALL YOUR MONEY" you bet your ass we need to know why

    Ok, but you are yet to explain why scientists need to be the ones telling you why. Which is why I mentioned beforehand the idea of division of labour.

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  41. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    As individuals, they sure have political beliefs. As only scientists, they have zero skills to propagate their political beliefs.

    As scientists as well as individuals, assuming at least 1000 scientists in this world, it is statistically impossible you will agree with political aspect of all of their statements.

    But how does it mean all scientists need to do a "better job of calling out those who are using it to advance the political ideas they agree with and not just" ? I just demonstrated many of them are very likely incapable of doing what you ask of them.

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  42. Re:What a steaming pile! by s.petry · · Score: 1

    Your statements were exactly quoted from you. GO BACK AND READ! I didn't cherry pick fragments, I quoted your whole damn statement and split it based on YOUR numbers 1 and 2.

    A. Are you saying scientists are experts in convincing people to do things ?
    B. Are you saying scientists possess the skills required to convince people ?

    Yes! See Tesla and Edison, or Flat Earth, or Nuclear Fission! Scientists DO know how to convince people and DO so all the time. They have to petition people for money, and loads of funding comes from THE PUBLIC as well as Government(s).

    You don't make any sense after that. _You_ said that scientists don't need to present information because people don't need to know (division of labor and all that). I said that they did need to present information and gave justification (my money is mine and you have no right to steal it).

    Either, you lack the skills required to debate in the given language (English) or you are a complete moron.

    --

    -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

  43. Re:Question Validity by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Right, except that when you almost comprehended my point, instead of thinking, "Oh, yeah, you're right" you phrased it as me "fall[ing] flag on [my] face." That's pretty daft. You proved you can count to 5, but why is it that when I talk about what a computer does you start talking about magic pixies?

    Are you that context-challenged? You just don't like me, so you presumed that I'm incorrect about everything, so you see me saying something and you just say the opposite. Only you don't realize my level of knowledge on the subject, and don't actually consider the details, so you don't give yourself any chance at all to say something that is even correct, much less interesting.

    No, computers aren't magic pixie dust. They're just fancy fucking calculators, "DDDDDUUUUUUUUUH!" Fuck-an-A why do you not know something that basic yet?! A computer model isn't magic pixie dust that might just be a pooly cast spell, no, it is just fucking math. You can work it all out without the computer if you don't trust computers. The computer has absolutely nothing to fucking do with the model, which is actually just a mathematical model. It is like calling algebra a "computer model" because you were using a computerized calculator. It might be a useful description for people who would probably also want to use the computer tool, but it doesn't mean it is some type of new mysterious unknown thing that has to be Trusted.

  44. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Your thesis is that unless scientists are expert politicians, they'll be accused of being political.

    That may or may not be true, but it contains nothing having to do with science, or any argument for a better way for scientists to communicate the science. You're just demanding that they also be politicians, and accusing them of being politicians if they refuse. They're not going to engage you in that discussion, because there is no benefit.

    You will call scientists whatever pejoratives you want to. It isn't something they caused, though. It is just you and it is your own responsibility what you say.

  45. Re:What a steaming pile! by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    I would be inclined to believe you are replying to some completely different post from what you intended, but you quote extensively from my post.

    I often feel the same way when he replies to my posts.

  46. Re:Wait Just A Darn Minute Here! by riverat1 · · Score: 1

    Unfortunately, even if AGW turns out to be an immediate existential threat to humanity, the politicians and other shysters have driven it's credibility so far underground that the name had to be changed twice(global cooling -> global warming -> climate change).

    "Global cooling" was never really a thing. It got some attention in the 1970s but even then a survey of the literature from 1965 to 1979 found over 6 times as many papers on global warming as on global cooling.

    "Climate change" is a term that has been around since at least the 1950s. In 1956 Gilbert Plass published a paper titled "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change".

    So nothing has really changed, just different things get emphasized at different time.

    And the continued exaggerations and FUD are taking it past the point where for many people, an unwashed hobo yelling about martians on a street corner while wearing a placard saying 'the end is near' is more credible.

    I see exaggerations and FUD from climate science deniers about what climate scientists have said and even some of that from some people who accept what climate science is saying but I've seen very little exaggeration or FUD from actual climate scientists who are usually pretty careful about what they say.

  47. Re:Wait Just A Darn Minute Here! by riverat1 · · Score: 1

    Let alone that science isn't done by consensus, It's done by repeatable testing and validation of theory.

    You are right that science isn't done by consensus. Consensus occurs in science when a particular point is settled enough that scientists would be a wasting their time to continue contesting it.

  48. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    Well, then I will continue to conclude that their "science" is designed to advance their political agenda, not to increase knowledge. And since their "science" is designed to advance their political agenda, I see no reason to believe their conclusions logically follow the facts.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  49. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    No, my thesis is that if scientists use their "science" purely to advance their political agenda, their "science" cannot be trusted.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  50. Re:What a steaming pile! by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    In as much as they possess the skills required to convince people, they are scientists *and* good petitioners. A person could play different roles even in your limited understanding of the world, I hope ?

    Please quote when I said people don't need to know. I now rephrase to avoid the specific misinterpretation that you are drawing due to your limited understanding of the world :

    1. Scientists do not need to know how to convince people
    2. There exist other people who can translate scientists' papers into "people language ". Because while there may be scientists able to don the hat of " people person ", it is not a logical expectation that all scientists can do it well.

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  51. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    OK, conclude that. Or you might try to find out what science means. I can hope, can't I ?

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  52. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    Awesome! I am eagerly waiting for a proof of your thesis. Beginning with a scientific definition of "cannot be trusted".

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  53. Re:What a steaming pile! by s.petry · · Score: 1

    Please quote when I said people don't need to know. I now rephrase to avoid the specific misinterpretation that you are drawing due to your limited understanding of the world :

    Your words are pretty straight forward. If you intended a different set of words and a different message rephrase your position.

    2. Everyone need not know / do everything. There is a reason division of labour has helped mankind greatly.

    So no, scientists do not need to do a better job of calling out those .... They just need to publish papers and critique other papers.

    Oh wait, you just did try to rephrase. Your latest post attempts to the goal post from "scientists don't need to convince people" to Scientists are too dumb to understand rhetoric and Powerpoint and we shouldn't expect them do to it well. Which is a different message but still false. Scientists _DO_ all the time. You don't have to the a front man, but you have to present both science and results people want to see in order to continue doing science. Whether it's your boss, the government, a University, or the public, someone has to write the checks.

    Don't project your shortcomings on the rest of humanity, but do open your eyes and see what the rest of humanity does.

    --

    -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

  54. Re:What a steaming pile! by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    There is no goal post shifting going on, if that is what you mean. You interpreted a set of sentences in a particular manner, I told another interpretation of it, which is what I intended.

    Take "Everyone need not know / do everything."

    1. Know : Scientists need not know how to convince people (especially non scientists).

    2. Do : Scientists need not do the job of convincing people.

    You don't have to the a front man,

    Which is what I intended to convey, I hope in a better grammar, and I hope this means "a scientist doesn't have to be a front man".

    Anyway , essentially you do understand. I rest my case. Any specific questions about this, or you'll just try a general misinterpretation again ?

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
  55. Re:Broken Logic by burtosis · · Score: 1

    Both the Florida blooms and I do have information from the department of natural resources stating that nitrogen and phosphorus are to blame for that particular lake (omitted for anonymity) but the DNR is actively managing both to stop algae growth in streams and lakes statewide. But facts probably don't interest you and you seem the type to think man made CO2 emissions don't matter along with the rest of the pollution spilling into the environment.

  56. Re:Broken Logic by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    There are lots and lots of different ways to screw up your water, if you don't manage it well. 1930 the river that runs through my town was colored red and all the resident fish died. People didn't like it, they made rules, the water recovered. Now it is fairly clean and there are lots of fish and wildlife.

    Florida has worse problems, like that you're going to be in the ocean in less than 200 years.

  57. Who count angels on the heads of pins anymore? by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

    Humans have always had uproars about ridiculous and meaningless differences.

    The only real effect of these imbecilic ploys has been to deflect, subvert, and otherwise distract public attention from the truly important discussions affecting real events and actually relevant outcomes of the effects of climate change on the natural systems of the planet.

    Now can we get on with a comprehensive discussion about the relevant topics?

    --
    PlaynBass
  58. Re:Broken Logic by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

    Aighearach (97333) has provided an anecdote that simply illustrates how he/she can provide us with negative knowledge which he/she thinks proves a point.

    Aighearach (97333) does not provide us any supporting facts to account for how the local algae blooms could possibly occur from entirely natural causes, or even how these seemingly natural blooms must be unconnected to undisclosed or unstudied effects of Man Made Climate Changes that might have affected the natural processes of those lakes.

    While there may be a number of potential causes for the effects described by Aighearach (97333), without the complete information set, this anecdote is merely more negative knowledge, and so is also worthless in the form it has been presented, ie: Broken Logic.

    --
    PlaynBass
  59. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

    If the scientists do not want people to react to the reporting of it they need to do a better job of calling out those who are using it to advance the political ideas they agree with and not just those who oppose their political preferences.

    No, they need do no such thing. Neither does my position come with an automatic assumption of public outreach, especially not when it comes to policing politicians. Your logical fallacy is 'tu quoque' or 'appeal to hypocrisy'. It's essentially all you have since you don't have any facts on your side. Well, that and more direct forms of dishonesty.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  60. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    You are correct. they do not need to do so, but since they do not I do not need to consider them honest arbiters of facts.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  61. Re:Why wouldn't more water dilute it more? by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

    They may not be honest arbiters of sound bites, but the facts are the contents of the research papers, not the science journalism. Have you perhaps met any Communication majors at university? Would you have trusted them to sit in on a physics exam for you? I'm sure you can contrast this with the typical holder of an advanced research degree. Now, seriously: what about these two fields and groups of people do you think has a strong overlap?

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  62. Re:What a steaming pile! by s.petry · · Score: 1

    Not being a hype man, pitch man, or front man does not mean that you are not out convincing people that your science is good. You and I may see more of that type person since that's what both gets ratings on TV/Radio and promotes a social message that people want you to hear, but that is a very tiny percentage of the science community.

    You specifically denied the need for promotion at the onset, then changed the mark to "they are too dumb to do so", and again to "they don't need to be a celebrity type. That is moving the goal post each iteration of your position, which is still false.

    All of those positions is very insulting to those of us who see the world for what it is, and especially insulting to scientists doing the work. I can find countless papers and interviews with scientists, all written using language and rhetoric which promotes their science and discoveries.

    --

    -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

  63. Re:What a steaming pile! by bingoUV · · Score: 1

    Ok, so "general misinterpretation" it is.

    --
    Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.