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Workers: Fear Not the Robot Apocalypse (wsj.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: For retailers, the robot apocalypse isn't a science-fiction movie. As digital giants swallow a growing share of shoppers' spending, thousands of stores have closed and tens of thousands of workers have lost their jobs. The brick-and-mortar retail swoon has been accompanied by a less headline-grabbing e-commerce boom that has created more jobs in the U.S. than traditional stores have cut. Those jobs, in turn, pay better, because its workers are so much more productive. This demonstrates something routinely overlooked in the anxiety about the job-destroying potential of robots, artificial intelligence and other forms of automation. Throughout history, automation commonly creates more, and better-paying, jobs than it destroys. The reason: Companies don't use automation simply to produce the same thing more cheaply. Instead, they find ways to offer entirely new, improved products. As customers flock to these new offerings, companies have to hire more people.

236 comments

  1. can't possibly be true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    More efficient production makes the economy better? WTF kind of voodoo talk is that?

    It is only through economic destruction and regression, that we can get ahead. It is only when we're all not even sure we'll have enough food to last through the winter, that we'll all be secure in our jobs!

    If you love America, you need for forsake all technology and economic gain. Only through poverty, disaster and plague can we ever hope to be happy. Anyone who does not crave these things, is an enemy of humanity.

    Thank you, mother nature, for the hurricanes. You employ construction! We need more hurricanes. We need more broken windows, pollution, and inefficiency.

    1. Re:can't possibly be true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget the blessings of blowing stuff up halfway across the earth while paying $800/gallon for fuel used to transport the explosives - just to rebuild it all over again. Wash, rinse, repeat. . .

    2. Re:can't possibly be true by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

      Thank you, mother nature, for the hurricanes. You employ construction! We need more hurricanes. We need more broken windows, pollution, and inefficiency.

      Maybe Trump does believe in climate change (or whatever the fuck we're calling it now), he just doesn't want the situation to improve for all the reasons you mentioned.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
    3. Re:can't possibly be true by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      More efficient production makes the economy better?

      It's fair to say that efficiency CAN make the economy better, but the benefits of that betterment often don't get distributed well in practice. That uneven distribution is largely why Mr. Trump won. The slightly-Democrat-leaning rust-belt leaned toward Trump this time, bucking the trend, because they've been hit hardest by automation and outsourcing. The distribution problems can be both geographical and by class (since the rich are still getting richer).

      This map shows the delta of the voting pattern per last election. The red-shifted areas fall predominantly in the rust-belt. The distribution problem has been an economic stumper of late.

      I don't fully believe in Trump's claimed solutions to the rust belt, but he did focus on and popularized the issue better. If you have a back-ache, you'll probably pick the doctor who talks more about backs, even if their solutions seem nebulous.

    4. Re:can't possibly be true by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The slightly-Democrat-leaning rust-belt leaned toward Trump this time, bucking the trend, because they've been hit hardest by automation and outsourcing.

      And, apparently, by compromises in the education system; you had to be a pretty spectacular buffoon to believe that Trump (a lifetime con man) was going to do anything to help The People, the same people that he's been party to helping to fuck over throughout his life.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    5. Re:can't possibly be true by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      I see it as more of a gamble: there was a (slim) chance he really did have fantastic negotiating skills to balance trade and bring back factory jobs. Experimentation is part of science. (Although, this particular lab-rat has an Abby Normal brain.)

    6. Re:can't possibly be true by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      I see it as more of a gamble: there was a (slim) chance he really did have fantastic negotiating skills to balance trade and bring back factory jobs.

      The problem is that you have to believe in both motive and opportunity. Even if you assume opportunity, what's the motive?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    7. Re:can't possibly be true by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      He has two consistent motivations: 1) ego and 2) xenophobia. Been that way for 4 decades.

    8. Re:can't possibly be true by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      He has two consistent motivations: 1) ego and 2) xenophobia. Been that way for 4 decades.

      OK, so which of those things were supposed to motivate him to help people? And also, you forgot greed.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    9. Re:can't possibly be true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Honestly, I thought all along that it was the draw of money from the speaking circuit and brand recognition. (For some values of "all along," anyway. I did think during the birtherism that Trump was just trolling the president.)

    10. Re:can't possibly be true by suutar · · Score: 1

      greed could be conceivably considered part of ego. How many times have we heard "the money is just a way to keep score" in one form or another?

    11. Re:can't possibly be true by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      When your choice is "continue down the path that is bad for you" and "change direction", people are going to pick change. Even if a bad change is the most likely result.

      A glimmer of hope gets more votes than guaranteed darkness.

    12. Re:can't possibly be true by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      He's been complaining about China's (alleged) trade barriers since at least late 1980's. He claimed he tried to do business in China and encountered tons of red tape put up by the Chinese gov't.

      Thus, his motivation to "fix" China may be a combination of greed and xenophobia. (Get even with "those darn foreigners".)

    13. Re:can't possibly be true by SandWyrm · · Score: 1

      By your logic, we would never have made it out of the 19th century. After all, the light bulb put thousands of candle-makers out of work. But it also allowed us to work at night, and in climate-controlled buildings where productivity improved across the board. Making new businesses and jobs possible that weren't practical before.

      Light bulb experts were needed. Who soon specialized into incandescent, fluorescent, halogen, sodium vapor, and LED specialists. As each sub-industry grew, each needed new experts in a hundred different stages of production for each type of bulb. From mining raw materials, to refining, to design and production of the components, to delivery and sale of the final products.

      If our civilization is to survive and expand into space, for instance, then we need thousands of workers who don't yet exist. We need space engineers, janitors, architects, pilots, miners, construction workers, etc. Where do you think they'll come from if current population trends continue?

      Answer: They'll come from the labor freed up by automating the transportation of consumer goods, food service, etc. That's not a bad thing, it's an improvement in the use of human time for more productive ends.

      Unless your political philosophy promotes the idea that humans should just sit on their rear and suck the government's teat idle every time adversity strikes. Or you economic philosophy favors over-specialization of a company's economy in a way that excludes those with few tech skills, for instance.

    14. Re:can't possibly be true by SandWyrm · · Score: 1

      The candidate that seems to at least understand a voter's problems will always beat one that either ignores them, or is seen as actively participating in making them worse.

      THAT is why Trump won.

      Look to the DNC and ask why they couldn't come up with (or allow through) a better candidate than the one their insiders chose. The problem wasn't Trump, it was the morons that Trump was running against. Find better candidates.

    15. Re:can't possibly be true by SandWyrm · · Score: 1

      The Trump alternative was also a liar, much greedier, and also a much more blatant law breaker.

      You can't compare Trump to a perfect opponent, because he only faced a series of incompetent opponents on both sides.

    16. Re:can't possibly be true by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The Trump alternative was also a liar,

      Sure.

      much greedier,

      Poppycock.

      and also a much more blatant law breaker.

      Bollocks.

      You can't compare Trump to a perfect opponent, because he only faced a series of incompetent opponents on both sides.

      Straw man.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    17. Re:can't possibly be true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't blame me—I voted for Strawman.

    18. Re:can't possibly be true by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      When your choice is "continue down the path that is bad for you" and "change direction", people are going to pick change. Even if a bad change is the most likely result.

      No, see, this is the very disconnect. Those are not the choices. Both choices were "continue down the path that is bad for you". People who believed that Trump was somehow different, a "non-establishment" candidate are fucking dumbfuck yokels. This is your cue to cry about how those people are alienated by being told they're being dumbfucks, but the fact is, they're being dumbfucks and we've already tried reasoning with them. It just doesn't work. Trump has consistently demonstrated throughout his life that not only doesn't he give a fuck about literally anyone else except maybe his children (as a reflection of himself, of course) but that he is willing to tell any amount of lies in order to achieve his personal aggrandizement. Further, people who ignored Trump's actions and voted for him on the basis of his words are not just morons but also shitheels, because his words were terrible. He proudly announced that he would do all manner of illegal things, and showed the world just what kind of person he was repeatedly by calling for violence against his detractors, and anyone who voted for him voted for him on that basis. They trusted that he would at least try to do the things he said he would do, things that were both illegal and immoral, and you don't get to vote for someone on that basis without being labeled as deplorable.

      TL;DR: Trump supporters are crying so hard about being told that they fucked up that they won't hear that they fucked up; it's a defense mechanism powered by cognitive dissonance that guarantees that they will continue to vote against their own interests right up until they die.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    19. Re:can't possibly be true by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Campaign message != reality.

      People usually vote based on campaign message. After all, that's the entire point of having a campaign.

      Also, I'm not so sure you want to open the Pandora's box of truthfulness, narcissism, and public versus private positions when it comes to the two major general election options.

    20. Re:can't possibly be true by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Also, I'm not so sure you want to open the Pandora's box of truthfulness, narcissism, and public versus private positions when it comes to the two major general election options.

      There's nothing good in the bottom of that box for either candidate, that's my whole point. Clinton was the devil you knew, Trump was the chaos candidate. Trump voters voted for disruption, and we all got it. They failed to consider the basic question you have to ask yourself when you're asking for change: What do you want? It actually doesn't matter what people want, because Trump won't give it to them. That Clinton wouldn't either is not a valid reason to vote for disruption of the system without any notion of actually improving it.

      And therein lies the major disconnect with the poor end of Trump's power base; they actually think they'd be better off without government, so they're always happy to tear the system down without regard for the consequences, or a plan for recovery (let alone improvement.) But they'd be fucked sideways in a hot second without all the trappings of modern civilization.

      This is why education is so important, and why right-wing fascists are always trying to compromise it. If they can make their bullshit believable by any means, they can baffle enough of the populace to keep confusing the issues so that we don't unite against their rapine ways. If that means compromising education, well then so be it. Surely private schools can spit out enough geniuses to keep America rolling? Except they never actually have been able to, we've always had to hire in a huge percentage of our talent.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    21. Re:can't possibly be true by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      That Clinton wouldn't either is not a valid reason to vote for disruption of the system without any notion of actually improving it.

      Caveat: Not a Trump voter.

      The point was to disrupt the system. The parties had stopped giving good candidates a while ago, and were not responsive to complaints about this situation. Instead, the parties relied on "but the other candidate is worse!".

      The people voting for Trump who were not racist/sexist/just assholes were attempting to impose some consequences on the parties for this lack of responsiveness.

      And therein lies the major disconnect with the poor end of Trump's power base; they actually think they'd be better off without government, so they're always happy to tear the system down without regard for the consequences, or a plan for recovery (let alone improvement.) But they'd be fucked sideways in a hot second without all the trappings of modern civilization.

      Personally, I file those under "just assholes" above. They will always vote for the Republican, so they're moot when it comes to convincing them to vote for someone else or stay home.

      Which leads us to the people who stayed home or protest-voted. They are the voters who could have possibly stopped Trump. But when given the choice of stable continued decline or chaos, they chose chaos. Because there's a chance chaos will result in waking up one of the parties.

      And education doesn't matter with that calculation. No matter how many degrees you have, a 1% chance is still greater than zero chance.

      For these voters who stayed home or protest-voted, the 2016 election was about 2020. From their perspective, the 2016 election had been lost long before November. So most of them stayed home.

    22. Re:can't possibly be true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Trump voters voted for disruption, and we all got it.

      No. Trump voters voted for hope and change. They call it MAGA, but it's basically the same type of vague nice sounding platitude.

      Also, elections aren't just about voting for things, but also voting against things. Trump voters voted against Clinton, and against what they perceive as evil progressive globalist commie SJWs etc.

      Meanwhile, Clinton tried to get people to vote against "deplorables". Failed pretty badly at that. Failed pretty bad at pushing what she was for as well.

      And that's Clinton and her base's problem. Nothing to do with Trump. Clinton couldn't get her message to stick, even if it's a fake message like any other politician's campaign promise.

      For all his rhetoric, Trump didn't draw out much more voters than Romney did, but Hillary's lackluster performance couldn't bring out Obama's numbers. And more people voted 3rd party (so more people do realize both candidates are bad)

      I know it feels good to blame the stooo-pid Republicans/Trumpsters, but the 2016 elections was more about the Democrats/Hillary losing it than the Republicans winning it.

      Now, as to your comment that education is important bit... do note that both educated and uneducated people can be found on both sides. The Ds have their poor minority vote (characterized by the right as moochers and illegal immigrants looking for government handouts), while the Rs have their educated businessmen (characterized by the left as greedy modern day robber barons looking tax breaks and deregulation)

    23. Re:can't possibly be true by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Now, as to your comment that education is important bit... do note that both educated and uneducated people can be found on both sides.

      Right, trump voters had median incomes 10k higher than clinton voters. But Trump's most vocal supporters typically demonstrate their lack of education in every comment, tweet, and blog post.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    24. Re:can't possibly be true by SandWyrm · · Score: 1

      much greedier,

      Poppycock.

      Clinton Foundation: Acceptance of "donations" from foreign nationals while Secretary of State; despite a written agreement with Obama not to do so. Foundation itself gives less than 10% of what it takes in to charities. The rest is used for the personal expenses of the Clintons. Various laws about State Department email regulations and safe data handling bypassed in order to deliberately hide incriminating evidence.

      Trump Foundation: Got caught using foundation funds to buy a piece of artwork for a donor. Fault was admitted, and fine was paid in full.

      However greedy Trump is (and remember he's not taking a salary right now), Hillary is at least 10-20x worse. It's not just her greed, but how petty and unnecessary so much of it is. She'll lie to bag $500 or make off with White House property as much as she will for $350,000 "speeches" to Goldman Sachs.

      and also a much more blatant law breaker.

      Bollocks.

      That's nothing but willful ignorance on your part.

      You can't compare Trump to a perfect opponent, because he only faced a series of incompetent opponents on both sides.

      Straw man.

      Reality.

      Trump sucks, but nobody better stood up on the Republican side, or was allowed through the primary on the Democrat side. If you think Hillary was in any way better, then you're ignoring the reality of her criminal history, her rank incompetence as SecState (Obama had to constantly work around her), and the fact that she was beholden to banksters and foreign interests instead of the needs of the USA. Trump, for all of his many faults, is only beholden to his own aims and those who voted for him.

  2. That's not how productivity gains work by rsilvergun · · Score: 5, Insightful

    productivity gains result in job losses. They have in every industrial revolution. Then in 50-80 years tech caught up elsewhere and there were new jobs. In the meantime there were two or three lost generations living in abject poverty because in America if you don't work you don't eat. And it wasn't the New Deal that fixed that (it helped, but wasn't nearly enough) it was a global war, 80 million dying and basically the whole world getting blowed up and needed to be rebuilt.

    History is basically the working class trying and failing to pry money out of the hands of the ruling class. Why the hell people don't see this is beyond me.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by harrkev · · Score: 4, Insightful

      One thing that you forget. Robots churn out a lot of products at a low cost. If everybody is poor and can't afford those goods, the robots are churning out products for nobody, and the robot owners make no money.

      America has a fairly low unemployment rate. I guess that steel, the steam engine, the electric motor, and computers have so far failed to put everybody out of work.

      Should we go back to hand-crafting a computer with skilled artisans hand-painting transistors, wielding a chunk of silicon and paintbrushes with arsenic and boron, just like our forefathers made computers 200 years ago?

      --
      "-1 Troll" is the apparently the same as "-1 I disagree with you."
    2. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by duke_cheetah2003 · · Score: 3, Informative

      History is basically the working class trying and failing to pry money out of the hands of the ruling class. Why the hell people don't see this is beyond me.

      Just because people can see something doesn't mean there's jack-shit they can do about it. I think most Americans can see what's been going on, but they're powerless to change anything, so they just keep getting screwed over and over and over.

    3. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      America has a fairly low unemployment rate.

      Only if you accept the official bullshit lie put out by the government.

      The labor participation rate -- the number of people actually working -- is currently 64%. That means 36% of the population is, by definition, unemployed. *THAT* is the real unemployment rate. Not the bullshit 4.7% currently claimed by the government.

    4. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by jeff4747 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If everybody is poor and can't afford those goods, the robots are churning out products for nobody, and the robot owners make no money.

      One only needs to look at the financial crash in 2008 to see just how forward-thinking the economic elite are.

    5. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, but you eat food, not money. Trying to pry the money is a fool's errand if your goal is to be fed.

    6. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

      I'll grant you there's plenty of fudge-factor in the govt numbers. But there's a truckload of bs in your number. Out of your "36% unemployed" number, how many aren't of legal age to work? How many are retired? How many are truly physically / mentally handicapped to the point of inability to work? ect, ect

      The % of the total population working isn't the point. It's the % of the actual labor force working that matters. They're not the same thing.

    7. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Aighearach · · Score: 2

      You're not allowed to mine arsenic and boron, because somebody in the bubble city on the horizon owns all the land.

      If you try to build a factory, drones will bomb it.

      It is not at all obvious that the problems lead to self-correction, or that the poor can simply wait for the manna to trickle down. What if somebody programs a robot to receive a paycheck and spend it? Everything can be automated, including demand, at least until the Masters have agreed on a new economic system that doesn't even require that shortcut.

      Real solutions have to work now, and have to keep working as we transition into an economy where productivity is cheap and most scarcity is artificial. Otherwise you just get bubble cities, and almost everything outside it is a private park.

    8. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      History is basically the working class trying and failing to pry money out of the hands of the ruling class. Why the hell people don't see this is beyond me.

      Tip: If you see something that no one else sees, even after you attempt to explain it to them, there's a really good chance that you're the one whose vision is unclear.

    9. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Weaselmancer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You'll note that the economic elite did pretty well in the crash. Not many of them got foreclosed on. It was bad for everyone else, but they're not everyone else.

      --
      Weaselmancer
      rediculous.
    10. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by jeff4747 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Actually, the top 10% lost way more than everyone else during the crash. However, they have made it all back and then some. Plus they could afford to lose it ("Oh no!! I can only buy 18 Ferraris this year instead of 20!")

      The bottom 90% lost less money in the crash itself, but have not made the money back.

    11. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

      The best way to rob a bank is to own one.

    12. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I made out very well in the crash buying some real estate that previously cost ten times as much (now back or above 2008 prices). And while I'm hardly economic elite, I was paying minimal attention to what was happening and read a few conspiracy blogs about an imminent crash due to cheap credit. Even on websites such as slashdot, people complained about fed meetings and rates not being raised. I don't think anyone does that anymore.

    13. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Green+Mountain+Bot · · Score: 3, Insightful

      History is basically the working class trying and failing to pry money out of the hands of the ruling class. Why the hell people don't see this is beyond me.

      Probably because you have to take an interest in history to see it. But it's true.

    14. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by iserlohn · · Score: 4, Insightful

      For the top 10% they lose money on paper - shares, investments, etc.

      For the bottom 90% they lose their savings, homes and livelihoods.

    15. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      Out of your "36% unemployed" number, how many aren't of legal age to work? How many are retired?

      Statistically? About 103% of them are either too young to work or are over 65. So if you go by 65 as a retirement age, about 1% of the population are working past 65. Of course, in reality, people don't all retire at 65, and you could argue that the reason we have unemployment is because people continue to work past retirement age. Otherwise, there would be enough jobs for full employment of all adults under 65 and then some.

      The labor participation rate is basically a useless number. It is too coarse-grained to be even slightly relevant as a metric. The right question to ask is not what percentage of people aren't bothering to work or look for jobs, but rather to ask why they are not doing so. Are they retiring early because of prosperity, or have they given up because there are no jobs? And of the 64% who are working, what percentage of them are underemployed, working part-time because they can't get more hours?

      --

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    16. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by BankRobberMBA · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Normally this is not one of my issues, but I felt compelled to offer a different interpretation. People in the United States are not powerless, they just THINK they are. When the electorate makes their wishes known to the leaders and then consistently punishes those leaders that will not attend them, the leaders soon start paying meaningful attention.
      As long as American voters believe they have no power, however, they do not act, and the leaders get whatever they want.
      This is important because the only countervailing force to corporate empowerment is governmental legislation.

      Sad anecdote - Two millennials with whom I work were complaining bitterly about Trump's victory. Later in the conversation I asked them about where they voted and both innocently admitted that they had not voted.

    17. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      Consider the source, "anonymous reader shares a report." And the garbage of the report's introduction is beyond psychotic. At this point, one should be asking for numbers, and sources other than a A/C's next wet dream.

    18. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

      If you don't like U-3, think in terms of U-6 as a statistic. I am hard pressed to come up with statistically significant number of people that are not included in U-6 that should be counted as the workforce.

      https://www.bls.gov/news.relea...

    19. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      America has a fairly low unemployment rate.

      Even the U-6 is unmitigated horseshit. Take the inverse of the labor participation rate and see what that looks like. Hint: Like shit.

      I guess that steel, the steam engine, the electric motor, and computers have so far failed to put everybody out of work.

      If you are basing your opinion on the unemployment rate, which is crap, it might look that way. But then your opinion is also crap.

      Should we go back to hand-crafting a computer with skilled artisans hand-painting transistors, wielding a chunk of silicon and paintbrushes with arsenic and boron, just like our forefathers made computers 200 years ago?

      No, we should have a meaningful safety net so that people don't get crushed by the transition process.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    20. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Otherwise you just get bubble cities, and almost everything outside it is a private park.

      And unless you get magic electricity generation, they're vulnerable to outside attack. Even a nuke needs water. There's always some resource that can be interfered with.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    21. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The labor participation rate is basically a useless number.

      It's at least twice as valuable as the unemployment rate, which is basically just made up to make the economy look good. It provides actual facts.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    22. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      If everybody is poor and can't afford those goods, the robots are churning out products for nobody, and the robot owners make no money.

      So they should give people money, so they can get back more money? Why even run the robots then?

      I mean, they'll be run enough to keep the peons from revolting, but only until robot soldiers can keep the starving masses from taking their stuff.

      --
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    23. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... Then in 50-80 years tech caught-up ...

      It's a 2-step process: First, the lower cost of ownership means more people buy the new technology, thus creating more jobs than the old technology did. This brings the technology to low-income middle-class or high-income working-class people. Second, the cost of manufacturing and distributing drops dramatically but doesn't create more jobs. This brings the technology to poor people and even welfare recipients, thus the increased consumption means people don't lose jobs.

      ... e-commerce boom that has created more jobs ...

      Getting rid of the front-end cost (the shopfront) allowed retailers to sell more product. A technology didn't disappear: The jobs just moved from standing in a shop (or its office) to packing boxes and driving delivery vehicles. Removing that technology, via self-driving vehicles will not will create millions of jobs for building, programming, or repairing such vehicles, even if everyone buys a self-driving vehicle.

    24. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by dgatwood · · Score: 3, Informative

      Meh. The unemployment rates also provide actual facts, and facts that paint a much more accurate and complete picture than the labor participation rate.

      • U-1 tells the long-term unemployed (out of work for over 15 weeks) who are still actively looking for jobs as a percentage of the LPR.
      • U-2 gives the number of just-now unemployed (who lost jobs during the most recent reporting period) as a percentage of the LPR.
      • U-3 gives the total number of people currently collecting unemployment benefits who have no job at all (not including underemployed) as a percentage of the LPR.
      • U-4 gives U-3 plus the number of people who have stopped looking for work and who gave a job-market-related reason for doing so, as a percentage of [LPR + people who stopped looking for market reasons].
      • U-5 gives U-4 plus people who have looked for work at some point within the last year, but are no longer actively looking for work, regardless of the reasons for doing so, as a percentage of [LPR + all people who stopped looking]
      • U-6 gives U-5 plus involuntary part-time workers, as a percentage of [LPR + all people who stopped looking + involuntary part-time employees].

      The declining labor participation rate is largely because of:

      • Baby boomers retiring
      • More people deferring work for college

      both of which significantly reduce the number of people who are out looking for jobs, and neither of which is a sign of actual unemployment. That's why U-3 uses the LPR as a baseline. It removes the bias that would otherwise be caused by non-job-market-related trends in employment numbers.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    25. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      More people deferring work for college

      If there were any evidence that they'd get work when they came out of college, that would be meaningful. But if current trends continue, those degrees will be useless, just like the ones people have now.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    26. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by burtosis · · Score: 1

      I think you miss the point. We will have a few people whose automated manufacturing, robotic servants, and autonomous armies will make them gods on earth while the billions of people locked out will simply die. We will hit the state where money will be not very relevant, but nothing like the Star Trek utopia people imagine.

    27. Re: That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If families could all live on single incomes, or everyone could afford to retire at 40, the labour participation rate would plummet but many would argue that it would represent an economic improvement. This is why labour participation rate tells you what the labour participation rate is, but doesn't tell you what the unemployment rate us.

    28. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Plus1Entropy · · Score: 1

      The labor participation rate is not the "real" unemployment. It's useless to include, for example, babies when you want to track unemployment. The same is true for retirees, students, stay-at-home parents, etc.

      Labor participation is dropping because the baby boomers are retiring. You know why they are called "baby boomers"? Because there are a lot of them, they were born during a "boom" of "babies".

      Expect the labor participation to continue to decrease, because it will.

      --
      Only crack the nuts that crack. You don't put the ones that don't crack in the sack.
    29. Re: That's not how productivity gains work by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      If families could all live on single incomes, or everyone could afford to retire at 40, the labour participation rate would plummet but many would argue that it would represent an economic improvement. This is why labour participation rate tells you what the labour participation rate is, but doesn't tell you what the unemployment rate us.

      The retirement age has been increasing, and less and less people are a stay-at-home parent, so if you take those facts together with the labor participation rate, you can see that we are going to hell in a very rapid handbasket.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    30. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One thing that you forget. Robots churn out a lot of products at a low cost. If everybody is poor and can't afford those goods, the robots are churning out products for nobody, and the robot owners make no money.

      America has a fairly low unemployment rate. I guess that steel, the steam engine, the electric motor, and computers have so far failed to put everybody out of work.

      Should we go back to hand-crafting a computer with skilled artisans hand-painting transistors, wielding a chunk of silicon and paintbrushes with arsenic and boron, just like our forefathers made computers 200 years ago?

      I, for one welcome our new robot overlords. Those who do not comply will simply be processed into Mom's Robot Oil.

    31. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unless this conversation took place in a swing state, not voting in a US general election can be pointless.
      Between gerrymandering and the BS of first-past-the-post elections, there's only a handful of places where getting everyone out to vote will actually impact things.

    32. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People don't see it because it's not true? At least not outside the Marxist inspired fantasies of the Progressive left.
      The New Deal extended the Great Depression by at least 11 years. As a matter of fact in most places they just had another cyclical depression, only in the United States was there a Great Depression. (Germany's problems were related to the unfavorable terms of the Treaty of Versailles.)

    33. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Shiptar · · Score: 1

      In America, there are 127 million employed persons.

      In America, the population is 324 million people.

      You're telling me there are 197 million kids, college kids, people in between jobs and retirees?

    34. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      Almost, yes.

      Under 18: 74 million
      In college: 20.4 million
      On disability: 40 million
      Over 65: 46 million
      Illegal immigrants (not eligible): 11.1 million
      Total:191.5 million

      The population of the U.S. is 323.1 million, so there's another 1 million error (196 million, not 197 million).

      If we assume people retire at 65 and start work after college, that leaves ~4.5 million people without jobs, give or take, or 1.4% unemployment over the entire population, 3.5% of potential workers. That's a rough estimate. The official number is 4.3%, so some people under 18, over 65, in college, or here illegally actually have on-the-books jobs.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    35. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by suutar · · Score: 1

      well, according to this quicky list from 2012 the set of kids+retirees appears to be approximately 33%. Assume that hasn't changed and that makes 108 million out of that 197. Seems unlikely that college kids and people between jobs make up 89 million, but don't forget the category of "stay at home parent not interested in working outside the home".

    36. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      The US "labor participation rate" in the 1950s was just over 50%. Was the economy terrible?

      100% labor participation rate means every person 16-65 is working. Zero students, zero retired, zero wealthy, zero disabled, zero stay-at-home parents, and so on.

      This is not a goal to shoot for.

    37. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#Birth_data, I count 90-120 million kids + retirees.

      Unfortunately, that data table isn't the best with its age bands (15-19? I'd like to count people 18+. 60-64 and 65-69? I'd like to count people at 62, 65, and 68)

      Counting under 15 and over 69: about 90M
      Counting under 15 and over 65: about 100M

      Counting under 20 and over 69: about 110M
      Counting under 20 and over 65: about 120M

      Bonus:
      Counting under 15 and 60+: about 136M

      60-100 million unemployed or underemployed. Yuck.

    38. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      You're telling me there are 197 million kids, college kids, people in between jobs and retirees?

      You're telling me there are zero single-income households? And that there are zero people so wealthy that they do not work? Zero disabled?

      The labor force participation rate in the 1950s was just over 50%. Was the economy in the 1950s awful? No. So perhaps a higher labor force participation rate is not an indicator of a good economy.

    39. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Even the U-6 is unmitigated horseshit. Take the inverse of the labor participation rate and see what that looks like. Hint: Like shit.

      Here's the labor force participation rate over time.

      You claim that today's labor force participation rate indicates a terrible economy, but take a look at the left end of the graph. The labor force participation rate in the 1950s was about 10% lower. Was the economy terrible in the 1950s? No.

      Almost like the labor force participation rate doesn't indicate what you are claiming.

    40. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      When the electorate makes their wishes known to the leaders and then consistently punishes those leaders that will not attend them, the leaders soon start paying meaningful attention.

      IMO the first part is the reason Trump won. The problem is the parties still don't feel like they have to do the second part.

      At some point, a party leader will realize there's a huge pool of voters they can use, and they will be lauded by pundits as the one who started the (insert name here) revolution. It's not clear we are at this point yet.

      The DNC is fighting very hard to not change, and the Republicans can not change because the insane wing of the party is all that is keeping them in office.

    41. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Pubstar · · Score: 1

      Well, its a goal to shoot for if you're a pinko commie bastard.

    42. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by suutar · · Score: 1

      and your outside attack becomes something else for the drones to bomb. Who'll run out of combatants first?

    43. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      The only "magic" is your magical thinking that the little guy must somehow always have a military solution available. That is not actually the accurate history of asymmetrical warfare. The reason that asymmetrical warfare works at all for the little guy in modern conflicts is that the authority they are fighting has a limited budget, political restrictions on how they fight, and a duty to protect civilians and "maintain order in the streets." If a bubble city is fighting against your illegal settlement, they have no obligation to create order on those secret streets. They will likely have no restriction on bombing your settlement.

      There are only really two types of effective asymmetric warfare already, because of technology; where the more powerful group has political control but is also poor, then attacking physical infrastructure can still be effective if your group has a large population of potential fighters. Otherwise, the only thing that works at all is terrorism. And a bubble city doesn't worry a lot about terrorism; terrorism is effective only because of a duty for the powerful to protect the commoners. But a bubble city only has a duty to its own residents, and you don't even have access. You can't just attack their water source, it is well protected by drones. You would not have access to anything you could terrorize.

      All the things that you can do to fight them would have to be done before they own everything. Your magical thinking is similar to thinking that chimps will be able to attack humans if we take away too much of their forest. It is just absurd. Humans who grow up in the wilderness outside a bubble city will not likely even maintain literacy, much less be able to find a game-changing weakness in the highly-engineered defenses. A great victory would be something like, after 100 years and 100,000 fighters lost, you finally killed 1 Lawful Citizen. And then your whole tribe is rounded up and executed. A few survivors celebrate Victory Day for 5 generations, but nobody knows what they're celebrating because telling the details didn't make for a good party.

    44. Re:That's not how productivity gains work by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Exactly. I see a lot of people make the same point harrkev did, and they're wrong for exactly the reason you suggest.

      If you own all the factories, and the mines, and the steel mills, and the bakeries and the delis you don't need to sell anything to anybody because you can just tell them to make you a car and to sudo make you a ham sandwich. You would literally have more than money could buy.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  3. Unencumbered by mcguirez · · Score: 2

    Here's an unencumbered link to the article:

    http://www.cetusnews.com/busin...

    --
    When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras
  4. The aggregate job count is rarely the complaint by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 4, Insightful

    >> Throughout history, automation commonly creates more, and better-paying, jobs than it destroys

    The aggregate job count is rarely the complaint of existing workers and their families. It's that the new jobs get created somewhere else and often require skills that the original workers don't have, and that the workers don't feel like moving, don't want to retrain and/or are considered too old to retrain or hire. See "West Virginia" or most of America's near-inner cities for examples...

    1. Re:The aggregate job count is rarely the complaint by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      True. I live in Northern Virginia where they've been building tons of massive data centers. These things are running large parts of Amazon and many other online businesses. You can drive around and marvel at these country-block-sized buildings with few windows and high security fencing. You know how many people work in them? Far fewer than one might think. I've been job-hunting, so I'm seeing the job ads popping up for them. It's primarily HVAC, electrical, and sales. No programmers at all and very few sysadmins.

    2. Re:The aggregate job count is rarely the complaint by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      I live in Northern Virginia ... No programmers at all and very few sysadmins.

      The overall unemployment rate in Northern Virginia is 4%, significantly lower than the national average, and the rate for programmers is under 3%.

      If you can't get hired in that job market, you are doing something wrong.

    3. Re:The aggregate job count is rarely the complaint by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      e terris ad astra via non mollis est

  5. What jobs get created for the unskilled by FictionPimp · · Score: 2

    When we have burger flipping and order taking, shelf stocking, part picking robots, where do the people who do not, can not, or will not get an education work?

    1. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

      When we have burger flipping and order taking, shelf stocking, part picking robots, where do the people who do not, can not, or will not get an education work?

      There are plenty of jobs that will never be automated. We may have burger flipping robots, but waiters will be human because customers want, and are willing to pay for, human interaction. Likewise with barbers, manicurists, masseuses, hairdressers, concierges, etc. These fields already employ millions, and will employ even more in the future as more people can afford them due to productivity advances in other areas of the economy.

      In the 19th century many people felt there was no where for displaced farmers to go. Factories were "obviously" not the answer since they were automating as well, so needed fewer workers per unit of production. Yet rather than dropping, incomes soared. To understand why "surplus labor" in the face of productivity improvements leads to mass prosperity rather than mass poverty (as you are still claiming) read about Jevon's Paradox. When a resource can be used more effectively, demand often goes UP rather than down.

    2. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by alvinrod · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's hardly a paradox, it's just an observation of supply and demand in price-based market economies in that as something becomes less expensive more of it is consumed. People have always wanted more consumer goods and services, it's simply that they weren't as willing to pay for more of them at the previous higher prices.

      However, this doesn't really address the original point. Automation is slowly eating away at the edges of unskilled labor. Couple this with a minimum wage and you have a situation where there are going to be a large number of people who are incapable of selling their labor because no one considers what they can offer a fair trade in exchange for their money. Removing the minimum wage probably means that there's always something that (almost) anyone could do for pay, but even that is going to be eroded slowly as well.

      I suspect that over the long run the issue solves itself. People who are incapable of getting work are likely to end up less likely to reproduce as they make less attractive mates, so any genetic factors reducing the ability to provide valuable labor in a modern economy are going to be selected against. To some degree I think this has been slowly happening over time and may be a partial explanation for the Flynn effect. The only real question is what to do with the people who have nothing to contribute to society in the meanwhile. I suppose you can go full-blown Randian objectivist and let people starve on the streets, but I don't see that ending well. I'm personally in favor of a UBI because it's probably less expensive than dealing with people turning to crime.

    3. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you sure? It wasn't more than 30 years ago that we had "Automats" for food where people despised waiters, and didn't want them. They wanted just to grab their food and sit down. Not realizing the waiters were behind the wall of boxes.

      We're seeing an uptick in "Self check out" even if it is more of a PITA if you have anything greater than a few simple items. Because most of us don't do such things daily and struggle with the oddities from store to store.

      We as a culture change pretty quickly. Some of those changes happen from within and some forced on us from an outside party.

      It depends on what push/pull happens. If McD could save $13 an hour by replacing someone with a kiosk and they loose $10 an hour initially and it drops to $5 or $3 and hour they will do it. People adjust and soon a generation goes by and they never knew there was someone behind the counter taking your order.

      Raise your hand if you remember a time when you weren't allowed (except for Oregon =) to pump your own gas? You had someone come out pump gas, clean your windows, and sometimes check your oil and fluids. It wasn't that long ago in terms of "generations."

      This isn't to state we should panic, but to state that your comment about it "never happening" isn't true.

    4. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by jader3rd · · Score: 1

      but waiters will be human because customers want, and are willing to pay for, human interaction.

      The most annoying part of restaurants are the human waiters. Sitting around doing nothing, waiting for someone to show up so I can progress with my day sucks. When deciding on a restaurant I always prioritize the least human interaction as possible.

    5. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by jader3rd · · Score: 1

      People who are incapable of getting work are likely to end up less likely to reproduce as they make less attractive mates

      No, they're bored more often and have accidents more often as a consequence.

    6. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      It wasn't more than 30 years ago that we had "Automats" for food where people despised waiters

      Yet where are those "Automats" today? Even when they existed, they had to offer food at a discount compared to a sit-down restaurant. So most people clearly prefer to be served by other humans, and are willing to pay a premium for the service.

      Some "sushi boat" restaurants dispense with waiters, but that has not spread to other restaurants types.

    7. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      When deciding on a restaurant I always prioritize the least human interaction as possible.

      Greetings fellow Aspie! I also try to minimize human interaction. But I understand that neuro-typicals don't share my preferences. Automated and semi-automated restaurants have been tried many times, and they have either failed because of poor customer reception, or succeeded only by offering significantly lower prices.

    8. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They invent new jobs. "Unskilled" people support themselves making youtube videos of cats or expert gameplay. . .

    9. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by CanHasDIY · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The 'burger-flippers' are always the first threatened by advocates of automation, but in reality they'll be the last jobs to go.

      Think about the last 40 years of automation; which jobs were replaced? The low-wage, part-time, menial jobs like sweeping up and serving food? Or the higher paying, more-skill-required positions such as machinists and equipment operators?

      It may be fun to pick on the low-skilled worker, but realistically, those aren't the jobs the owners of production want to get rid of. They want to automate you out of a job. Me too.

      --
      An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
    10. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Nethemas+the+Great · · Score: 1

      The will nots, shall receive basic, or die. The can nots shall be enabled, receive basic, or die.

      --
      Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once ... with negative results.
    11. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by helga+the+viking · · Score: 2

      "it's just an observation of supply and demand in price-based market economies"

      Just a tangential comment: Supply and demand does not set price. Most prices are 'mark up' prices and set by static tranches cost of the manufacturing process plus the markup amount and hence actually inflexible to change in demand.

      [link to all the data] http://socialdemocracy21stcent...

    12. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

      " Couple this with a minimum wage and you have a situation where there are going to be a large number of people who are incapable of selling their labor because no one considers what they can offer a fair trade in exchange for their money"

      Last time this happened was an unskilled workforce (soldiers) that came back from WW2. Some places the unemployment rate eg: australia would have been 45% or more... Wonder what happened? Did they get re-skilled into civilian work? Or did we just ignore the most important lesson of the 20th century that 1945-1975 full employment was achieved very quickly (no hidden/underemployment)

    13. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The natural reaction to increase reproduction during times of difficulty and threat, not reduce it, is probably one of the best documented and most reasonable facts in nature. To bet against it is a fool's bet.

    14. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      When we have burger flipping and order taking, shelf stocking, part picking robots, where do the people who do not, can not, or will not get an education work?

      The gladiatorial arena obviously.

    15. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by wyHunter · · Score: 2

      People who are incapable of getting work are far more likely to reproduce.

    16. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by evil_aaronm · · Score: 1

      People who are incapable of getting work are likely to end up less likely to reproduce as they make less attractive mates

      If only thinking made it so. Out here in Bumfuck NY / PA, just saunter into any Walmart or Sheetz and you'll be plenty disappointed by the "humanity" that can reproduce at any level.

    17. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      I've long been an advocate for total darkness. But it's a rare trip to walmart that doesn't involve the thought: 'My god, someone had sex with THAT? And was sober enough to function?'

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    18. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Production machinists were never super high skilled (or all that well paid).

      I am old enough to have seen the rows of ex-cons running manual lathes, making the same part over and over.

      Mold, tool and die makers on the other hand were and are super high skilled. Their skills include CNC programming these days.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    19. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by skam240 · · Score: 1

      The problem will correct itself because poor people will make less babies? That sounds great until it bumps up against the reality that poor people typically have more kids https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik...
      https://economix.blogs.nytimes...

      --
      I ignore Anonymous Coward posts. If you want to discuss something, that's awesome. Log in.
    20. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      There are plenty of jobs that will never be automated. We may have burger flipping robots, but waiters will be human because customers want, and are willing to pay for, human interaction. Likewise with barbers, manicurists, masseuses, hairdressers, concierges, etc.

      All of those jobs are also going to fall to automation sooner or later. Why would you want a barber when a machine can come down over your head and complete a quality haircut in a small fraction of the time? Why would you want a massage which comes without a happy ending from a human when you could get it from a machine which will never judge you, and never get tired, and whose "hands" can be IR emitters? Etc etc.

      In the 19th century many people felt there was no where for displaced farmers to go. Factories were "obviously" not the answer since they were automating as well, so needed fewer workers per unit of production. Yet rather than dropping, incomes soared.

      That's because there were more profitable things for them to be doing. Now, there aren't. We place very low value on service jobs, and when robots cross the uncanny valley, that value will fall even further.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    21. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by JimSadler · · Score: 1

      There is one reason for technology. Technology exists to eliminate human effort. We are now just at the point at which technology is reaching its objective. Soon there will be almost zero need for any human workers. That also implies that owners have a huge problem as well as they need buyers with spendable incomes. Ultimately the pay will have to come from government and the taxes will have to be levied upon the people who own businesses.

    22. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... likely to reproduce as they make less attractive mates ...

      You think poor women are going to stop having sex because the men are poor? You think men will stop being horny and desperate because they are poor? If poor women become prostitutes for median-income men, the issue remains: What happens when a baby appears: It will starve or be a victim of deliberate infanticide if society can/will not protect it. (For most of history, children didn't buy anything, so they didn't have rights.) When the government created orphanages in the 1800s for the abandoned babies, most of the babies died of loneliness. It's still self-selection but only because there is a weak link (the new-born) in the cycle of life.

    23. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And then you are still supposed to tip them even if the service sucked, because the resturant doesn't pay them enough to live on! Ordering from a tablet is far better, then you are only waiting on the stuff to come out, not sitting there with an empty plate trying to get someone to take your damn order.

    24. Re: What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Whilst some people want human interaction if the cost of a fancy haircut by a human is $100 but from the Hairmaster 200 (now $199.99 with free beard trimmer) it's $10 a time, you would find fewer people keen to spend an extra $80 a time (taking into account the cost of the Hairmaster) just for human interaction. Much as people said that the human interaction of the small mom and pop shops was great, Amazon is doing well.

    25. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And there's the real point. People will not longer have the luxury to be unskilled. Let's face it for most of human existence that's been the case. In a primitive setting the unskilled person starves, is killed by a predator or freezes to death. Hunting/gathering is a skill set. Heck, martial arts is a skill set. Artisan crafts are a skill set. Farming is a skill set.
      Only since the industrial age was it possible for a skilled farmer to become an unskilled laborer. The assembly line allowed life as an unskilled laborer to become economically viable. Urban living allowed the unskilled laborer to survive, as skilled laborers in all support fields allowed the unskilled laborer to survive without learning any skills.
      That time is over. Time to start learning if you want to survive.

    26. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Removing the minimum wage probably means that there's always something that (almost) anyone could do for pay, but even that is going to be eroded slowly as well.

      Humans have costs well beyond salary. Like bathrooms, and the need to clean them. They also need to be trained, instead of having the "training" uploaded into them.

      Humans can not beat robots in a race-to-the-bottom once the robots have general-purpose AI.

      People who are incapable of getting work are likely to end up less likely to reproduce as they make less attractive mates, so any genetic factors reducing the ability to provide valuable labor in a modern economy are going to be selected against

      Oh goodie! Eugenics!

      Psst....might wanna check the reproduction rates of the poor and the wealthy. Turns out the correlation goes in the opposite direction - the poor have more kids.

    27. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It wasn't more than 30 years ago that we had "Automats" for food where people despised waiters

      Yet where are those "Automats" today? Even when they existed, they had to offer food at a discount compared to a sit-down restaurant. So most people clearly prefer to be served by other humans, and are willing to pay a premium for the service.

      Nope. They weren't killed by full-service restaurants, they were killed by other factors, including deurbanization, inflation (killing the coin service option, people HATE putting bills in machines today, they weren't around in the 1970s), and the drive-through.

      However, now, now they're testing automatic cashiers again.

      Automatic on-demand food preparation is still a tad limited, but give it time, they're already filling the drinks that way.

      Some "sushi boat" restaurants dispense with waiters, but that has not spread to other restaurants types.

      Yeah, those rollers are expensive. Check out the buffet restaurants.

    28. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Think about the last 40 years of automation; which jobs were replaced? The low-wage, part-time, menial jobs like sweeping up and serving food? Or the higher paying, more-skill-required positions such as machinists and equipment operators?

      Counter-example: plenty of former low wage jobs in agriculture are gone now, replaced by automation.

      For example, in modern agriculture, many cultivars are in use that have been bred for machine picking, which means machines replace workers.

      This isn't always a good thing, since the fruit needs to be tougher to survive machine handling. So it doesn't taste as good - but since there are transportation and shelf life issues that also require tougher food that's perhaps a wash (at least out-of-season). Still, we definitely have fewer cultivars actively being used in agriculture, which increases vulnerability to diseases and pests (and correspondingly means we tend to use more potentially toxic chemicals for control). Also, machine picking prevents mixing crops to reduce vulnerability (monoculture versus permaculture). Finally, there are some issues with efficient use of land - the cultivar that is most efficient for machine use is not necessarily the cultivar that uses space and water most efficiently. But profits are king in the corporate world, and human labour has become too expensive relative too the market prices for these goods, so we're stuck with these disadvantages.

      Some crops are still incapable of being machine picked - too soft or too hard to get at. These tend to be economically less important now than in the past - markets (and the negative effects of bad laws) drive farmers towards the most profitable crops. Farmers are mostly corporations these days, thanks to a lot of misguided "social justice" policies and laws, which harm the livelihood of the small scale farmer through a variety of mechanisms. Some policies are directly harmful, others do harm because the need to fund these policies often has a negative effect. For example, taxes such as property tax end up funding things that should be funded through progressive income tax, part of a complex web of government money laundering that hides the true costs of "social justice" policies. Property taxes tend to be very harmful to farmers (especially when the farmers are minorities and hold potentially valuable land - on many occasions developers and corrupt local governments have cut deals that force these people off their land).

      I'm not trying to say that all "social justice" policies are bad - but proponents and voters often don't understand the true costs of these policies, so we end up with bad policies instead of good ones - and once in place they're almost impossible to undo.

      At least in season it makes sense for people to grow their own food, or support their local farmers. We probably should be funding a lot more science research on home growing, especially for the off-season - there have been some good improvements over the years (such as "greenhouse" varieties of vegetables that are self-pollinating and don't need as much light), but there's probably a lot more to be learned. There have been several good books on this topic in recent years, but the science still seems pretty limited.

    29. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People who are incapable of getting work are likely to end up less likely to reproduce as they make less attractive mates, so any genetic factors reducing the ability to provide valuable labor in a modern economy are going to be selected against.

      Well ... this movie should be views as a documentary :-)
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unoMMru4-c0

    30. Re:What jobs get created for the unskilled by CanHasDIY · · Score: 1

      Counter-example: plenty of former low wage jobs in agriculture are gone now, replaced by automation.

      No, they've been replaced with even lower wage slave labor in the form of illegal immigrants.

      Evidenced almost daily by some idiot decrying the woes of deporting illegals and causing an increase in the cost of goods.

      --
      An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
  6. What happens when e-commerce goes 100% robot? by gb7djk · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The fact that it all seems to be going in the right way - for now - does not mean it will continue. Many e-commerce jobs for humans will be destroyed in the next few years as e-commerce gets more and more automated. Yes there will be jobs, but for far fewer and better qualified/skilled people. If you are a relatively unskilled worker - in my view - your prospects are not going to be good. And, what is worse, it will be people like us that are facilitating this.

    Don't even start me on what robotics are going to do to the trucking industry...

    1. Re:What happens when e-commerce goes 100% robot? by mujadaddy · · Score: 2

      trucking industry

      Didn't you hear that everyone's old buddies, the Teamsters have that covered?

      --
      Populus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur...
      "Force shits upon Reason's back." - Poor Richard's Almanac
    2. Re:What happens when e-commerce goes 100% robot? by Rob+Y. · · Score: 1

      I agree. The robots haven't even begun to touch most job categories. So far, they're only doing some of the heavy lifting and detail work in manufacturing. They're not flipping burgers or fulfilling Amazon orders... yet.

      Of course, bank tellers are long gone, and some fast food chains (e.g. Panera) have started replacing cashiers with self-service touchscreens - we'll see how popular that is. CVS has automated self check-out kiosks that, so far, are so cumbersome they need an employee to hover to show customers how to use them.

      --
      Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...
    3. Re:What happens when e-commerce goes 100% robot? by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Believing media hype, spreading FUD

    4. Re:What happens when e-commerce goes 100% robot? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't even start me on what robotics are going to do to the trucking industry...

      Don't worry, those 7 million drivers and the millions of secondary employees supported by their spending can all go to coding boot camps and work in e-commerce or be programmers and technicians for their old trucks. /s

      Why anyone could possibly believe that companies switch to automation due to a desire to save costs would then hire more people at higher wages is beyond reason.

    5. Re:What happens when e-commerce goes 100% robot? by Nethemas+the+Great · · Score: 1

      That is why unskilled workers need to be enabled, that is, provided the ability to equip themselves. When you live hand to mouth, it's pretty hard to climb the ladder. The alternatives are inhumane, or squander human capital in favor of basic income.

      --
      Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once ... with negative results.
  7. Increased Automation in the Auto Industry... by pastafazou · · Score: 2

    Has led to less overall jobs in the auto industry. I'm pretty sure that the jobs created with supplying and maintaining these automation tools did not completely offset the jobs lost...

    1. Re:Increased Automation in the Auto Industry... by Nethemas+the+Great · · Score: 1

      It's also led to much higher quality automobiles.

      --
      Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once ... with negative results.
  8. Jobs don't matter by king+neckbeard · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Jobs don't matter. Jobs have never mattered. There are, and will always be, a means to an end. That end being not starving to death. In the past, jobs were a means of divvying up the limited resources for that goal, but as the resources become less limited, something like a UBI will become necessary.

    This should be a good thing, but we've got such pig-headed ideas about economics that we're taking the blessing of not needing labor and turning it into a curse.

    --
    This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    1. Re:Jobs don't matter by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 2

      Food, shelter, entertainment, personal projects. Fill all of those and you won't get revolts from the general population.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
    2. Re: Jobs don't matter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It seems enconomic discussions in the US are constrained artificially. Capitalism is the only model that can be published about in economic journals. If you do not publish in those journals you cannot be an economic professor. Seems capitalism leads to a monopoly situation.

    3. Re:Jobs don't matter by helga+the+viking · · Score: 2

      UBI is a poor solution. A job guarantee is better.

      There is more work NOW than at any point in human history.

      Best to not conflate capitalisms profit crisis with what needs to be done. Id be a melting ice cap on it.

    4. Re:Jobs don't matter by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      Why is a job guarantee better? If there is not enough useful work, then it's just busy work, which is wasteful and insulting.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    5. Re:Jobs don't matter by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

      Define useful? Is it something profitable or that needs to be done measured by any plethora of benchmarks?

      Example of work that needs to be done: Circuit level diagnosis to fix/recycle a piece of electronics may not have much monetary gain but its a job with purpose. Even if it may be cheaper to buy a new item. 'Useful' can fit a whole bunch of different contexts, it would be useful the item did not entirely/partially end up in land-fill and become a poison to the environment.

      http://jobguarantee.org/ https://medium.com/modern-mone...

      Here is a challenge, walk into any university, any STEM department and ask the question: 'what could be done better in this field if you have enough manpower to redo a chosen area of your industry?'

      The list is miles long for software engineering/computer science for instance. If we had enough engineers we could finally rewrite entire legacy software stacks+standards that haphazardly become de-facto industry standards that are security nightmares. Point is people are a resource to be put to work not to sit idle.

    6. Re:Jobs don't matter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What a strange perspective.

      Work is a necessary evil for now. Having people's lives depend on it should be abolished as soon a possible.

    7. Re:Jobs don't matter by losfromla · · Score: 1

      I could actually get behind this but would prefer it be optional to UBI. Also, I don't want to work more than 20 hours a week, and at least a 3 month vacation a year. I want to have a life, not be a slave.

      --
      Only I can judge you.
    8. Re:Jobs don't matter by Nethemas+the+Great · · Score: 1

      UBI is the best answer I've heard to the problem of the "will nots," that is, those people who refuse to invest in their employability. The "can nots" however, should not be dismissed. A nation squanders their human capital at their own peril. If they can't reach the next rung on the ladder due to circumstance we need to be pulling them up.

      --
      Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once ... with negative results.
    9. Re:Jobs don't matter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here comes the obligatory UBI bullshit again

      You're bad at math, and also you have no clue about how humans actually are. Republicans won't ever approve anything that smells and tastes so much like WELFARE. Dominionists are diametrically opposed to anything like UBI because so far as they're concerned, there shouldn't even be Unemployment Insurance, let alone any sort of welfare, if you're down on your luck or out of a job then God obviously is punishing you for something and you're supposed to SUFFER and DIE as an example to everyone else to DO AS YOU ARE TOLD by your Dominionist masters, so they'd rather slit their own wrists than give people UBI. Even if Democrats are in power and try to pass UBI, they'll want to tax The Rich to pay for it, and The Rich will torpedo the whole thing any way they can, then vote the Democrats out of power again, then we're back to Republicans and Dominionists. Even if none of the above applies all you need is BASIC MATH to see that UBI just won't work for 300,000,000 people, let alone 7,500,000,000 people. Face it, you're living in a free-Doritos-and-Mountain-Dew-rent-free-in-the-basement-for-life-neckbeard-fantasy-world. Never going to happen, forget about it, YOU HAVE TO WORK LIKE THE REST OF US, FATASS.

    10. Re:Jobs don't matter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Despite the popular SWJ dogma in reality there's a substantial number of the population that will be incapable of doing software engineering or computer science.

    11. Re:Jobs don't matter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All of those tasks you describe are ripe for automation when the kind of AI that is general enough in capability exists. They will not be available to people other than as make-work.

    12. Re:Jobs don't matter by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1
      "I don't want to work more than 20 hours a week, and at least a 3 month vacation a year. I want to have a life, not be a slave."

      That is a workable JG. It has been trialled and is similar to 'Full employment Initiatives' which were part of the reforms post WW2 in USA, Canada, UK, Australia.

      You turn up when you want and get paid. So if you want to only work 9 hours one week then that's it. UBI has many good points but they are also encompassed in a JG.

      http://www.abc.net.au/news/201...

    13. Re:Jobs don't matter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What? You don't think of yourself as simply a resource to be exploited?

    14. Re:Jobs don't matter by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

      Define which tasks are ripe for automation?

      The tasks most ripe for automation are first and foremost at the top. Ironically they are the CEO's who are telling all other layers of the workforce that they will be 'automated'. Look at how good the decisions of CEO's are and shareholders. They mostly get things wrong and cost a lot.

      An AI expert system and a flattened corporate hierarchy where groups of people make decisions would be correct more often and less expensive.

      http://www.businessinsider.com...

      I respectfully disagree that say circuit level board repair could be entirely automated. You're dealing with CMOS devices, the fundamental chemistry of this stuff is that it does not last long, do you make machines to repair the machines that repair the machines? There are trade off's but the urgency of the E-waste issue has millions of jobs associated with it. As opposed to greenwashing the problem:

      https://motherboard.vice.com/e...

      One of the best things about a former colleague who got into the smart-home industry say is all those sensors are constantly breaking and needing repair. Never been busier. One form of automation has opened up an entirely new path to create jobs.

      As for AI supplanting comp-sci/SW engineers welcome to an open discussion where a few people would have a quibble or two about that ;-)

    15. Re:Jobs don't matter by e_pluribus_funk · · Score: 1

      We haven't yet reached the age of no scarcity. I agree that when the production function goes from y = f(k,l), y = f(k), that we'll certainly need a UBI (or the horror counter scenario, where the rich holders of capital exterminate everyone else with their robot armies), but it's a ways away from being viable.

    16. Re:Jobs don't matter by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      That's why you need to sell the idea in Milton Friedman's terms, basically as a welfare system with less overhead. In fact, you can just bash everyone over the head with his name. You are correct that the Dems can screw it up by trying to exclude the rich, but including them in the UBI has no real effect on their viability, so it's only a real threat from the center-right Dems that love to sabotage the actual left.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    17. Re:Jobs don't matter by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      I would agree that CEOs are among the most replaceable. Many of them would be outperformed by a coin flip.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
  9. Not similar by RyoShin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As customers flock to these new offerings, companies have to hire more people.

    Only if the new offerings are not produced by robots. That's where the breakdown happens, why the advent and adoption of general-use robotics and algorithms isn't another example of historical automation.

    Buggy whips went out of demand, so the people went to build cars. Cars started to get automated, so people went to build the increasingly-intricate car parts. But now car parts can crafted wholly by robots (or, for a continuously-expanding class of parts in general, "printed"). Automation in the past was about very specific processes for very specific outputs; you couldn't take a line used to make cars and easily change it to one that makes bicycles (or soup.) But soon we'll have a robot chef that works mostly by mimicking human actions, so if it can cook it can assemble.

    The "creative" jobs will hold out longer, but algorithms will replace many of these, too: IBM's Watson has made a movie trailer. A lot of marketing these days are applying set rules to things (certain colors evoke certain responses in certain demographics, etc.) A lot of music is based around similar setups. Hell, Japan has a popular singer who's not even a real person.

    The only question I see is: how fast will this happen? If it's extremely slow then make-busy work might fill in the gap as robots and "AI" take over most regular production. If it's very fast then we'll have a lot of robots producing things that most people can't afford to purchase, and "things" will eventually include food.

    1. Re:Not similar by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

      Miku is probably a poor example of loss of jobs and revenue, she may be virtual but it's still people designing the 3D models, making that 3D model move in music videos. It's still people composing songs and music and it's people paying those people for the media they create. It's a total loss of one job, generating dozens if not hundreds of jobs in order to make the idea appear alive.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
    2. Re:Not similar by RyoShin · · Score: 1

      Very true, but my intention was to present Miku (along with my other examples) as something bleeding-edge that can become increasingly applicable as the technology matures and costs drop. The 3D models used for it can be re-used for other facsimiles, so Miku Hatsune can become e.g. Trisha Johnson.

      It's the exact same setup as manufactured pop stars already prevalent in American culture, they've just taken the star out of the equation. For example, one person wrote many of the hits for Brittany Spears, NSYNC, and many other singers/groups. Music can be produced, at least partially, without physical instruments.

      If Americans would accept a digital diva (I don't think they would, yet) you've replaced a dozen or two people (and their enormous entourage) with one song writer, two or three modelers, and maybe a handful of musicians. As an added bonus, a Vocaloid won't get drunk and drive their car into a lake, so even after the popularity of the model wains they can repurpose it.

    3. Re:Not similar by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People like you are so totally taken in by media hype and other forms of pure fantasy that nothing you say makes any sense, and nothing you said here makes any sense either. None of those things are going to happen, ever, and you need to stop reading the bullshit media and go look at real facts from real people who really know what they're talking about.

    4. Re:Not similar by RyoShin · · Score: 1

      bullshit media

      ...which doesn't apply to the WSJ? I honestly don't know, because the article is paywalled so I can't see if they back up their headline with "real facts".

      I'm not sure how what I wrote doesn't qualify as "real facts," either. I'll grant my conjecture isn't "real", but I presented real technology and posited on what I believe are their future applications and rapid expansion, and how it differs from historically similar events. You don't offer anything to counter what I wrote, or provide alternative outcomes or explanations or "real facts from real people", you just rant about "media hype".

    5. Re:Not similar by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Miku is probably a poor example of loss of jobs and revenue, she may be virtual but it's still people designing the 3D models, making that 3D model move in music videos.

      Today, that's true. But look at game engine cinematics. Less and less of the motion needs to be done by hand, because it's filled in by the engine.

      It's still people composing songs and music and it's people paying those people for the media they create.

      Computers are getting better at creating unique compositions. So when they're writing the songs, who's going to pay for the media?

      It's a total loss of one job, generating dozens if not hundreds of jobs in order to make the idea appear alive.

      The whole point of this discussion is that the number of jobs generated is diminishing, and will soon taper off to basically nothing. Using a virtual artist does eliminate whole classes of job, even if it creates new ones right now — jobs which will also vanish as technology advances.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  10. Fear not, trucker in Bumfuckistan! by denzacar · · Score: 1

    You may lose your truck driving job today, but many more jobs will be created in Elbonia, for future, far more educated generations of robotruck engineers.

    I.e. NET jobs are NOT necessarily your jobs.

    --
    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
    1. Re:Fear not, trucker in Bumfuckistan! by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      You may lose your truck driving job today, but many more jobs will be created in Elbonia, for future, far more educated generations of robotruck engineers.

      That's not true, though. That's the thing about software; you only need to reinvent the wheel enough times to satisfy business cases, and you can copy it all the rest of the times. We will end up with only a small handful of firms worldwide working on the actual nuts and bolts of self-driving simply because of the way corporations work.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:Fear not, trucker in Bumfuckistan! by denzacar · · Score: 1

      Robots are not only software. And hardware specs change over time, making old code obsolete.
      Then, there's the second-hand market and support and maintenance of "obsolete" hardware and software.
      Also, if the current "agile" BS continues, no software will be "finished" ever again.

      As for "handful of firms" making software for the whole world...
      Unless they end up giving it away for free, along with the tech support...
      It's only a question of time when local governments figure out that they could "create jobs" by mandating that the software and support for things which drive on local roads be done with local labor.
      Or they simply tax the self-driving vehicles and create more "make work" jobs, preferably in administration... or just spend it all on hookers and blackjack.

      Still... It will all be done in Elbonia, not Bumfuckistan.

      --
      Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
  11. Not buying it by duke_cheetah2003 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Let's just take a look at Amazon for a moment. I watched some news articles about them. Their warehouses already feature a lot of automation.

    The only thing they need humans for is to take stuff off shelves (that robots bring to them) and put in boxes to fulfill orders. And you can bet your wallet as soon as Amazon figures out how to automate that, those jobs are gone. Poof. And yes, they definitely do intend to automate that, they're working on prototypes and ideas as I write this.

    Automation is going to be a very huge disruptive force, and as it starts to happen, it will accelerate ever faster, just like computers did from 1980's to now.

    Right now, we haven't reached that critical point where automation is going to displace workers. There's enough 'other' jobs to offset what automation replaces. But you're kidding yourself if you think that's going to hold. It's going to flip to the other side very soon.

    1. Re:Not buying it by avandesande · · Score: 4, Funny

      Soon Amazon will sell me a robot that buys things for itself off of Amazon...

      --
      love is just extroverted narcissism
    2. Re:Not buying it by raftpeople · · Score: 1

      It's interesting to look at the details of the job shift due to e-commerce and then automation.

      The shift to e-commerce causes a few changes related labor:
      1 - Shifts the labor related to the final sale transaction from the retail store to the packing operation - this becomes somewhat of a wash for labor

      2 - Removes the DC distribution labor supporting the stores - which is non-trivial but operated typically at the pallet and case level

      3 - Added the piece pick labor to the DC (previously performed by the consumer in the store) which is an order of magnitude more labor intensive than previous operations for two reasons:
      3.1 - Because pallet/case is at an aggregate level
      3.2 - Because the DC is much larger than the store due to higher volumes and more skus causing the walk distance to increase

      Without picking automation, the shift from brick and mortar to e-commerce causes a labor increase (ignoring details like idle time by store workers)
      With picking automation, the shift is closer to a net wash for labor

      When packing is automated (e.g. auto-baggers) then the labor drops below brick and mortar.

    3. Re:Not buying it by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

      Amazon has many jobs that cant be automated because they need to employ a human.

      This is because many jobs require legal responsibility to be exercised and that does not exist under law for a robot. Put simply you cant send a robot to jail when it ships the wrong medicine to a patient killing them.

      Many of the jobs are stable because of this factor. Look at the legal issues with self driving cars for instance. That is just the tip of the ice berg, most admin jobs that involve coordination that could potentially harm someone is NOT possible to automate entirely because it needs HUMAN for legalities.

    4. Re:Not buying it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Soon Amazon will sell me a robot that buys things for itself off of Amazon...

      I know you're joking but this is the primary problem with capitalism in the modern world. It will inevitably fail because you have to always be reducing costs, which on a long enough timeline nearly always means automation in essentially every industry. Capitalism assumes where there is a demand someone can make money filling it but in reality demand only matters if people can pay for it. And the GP is right. I work for Amazon and there are projects right now looking into the viability of replacing more warehouse workers. It look like the tech is still too expensive compared to the labor but that's just a matter of time. My guess is in less than 5 years Amazon will announce it's first fully automated warehouse.

      Globally, we will have to come up with a better system than capitalism or despite the claims made in this misunderstood and inapplicable article many, many workers need to be afraid. Nothing major will happen until the end of humans in the trucking and taxi industries in the next 20 years or so. Those are some of the biggest careers traditionally for people who will work hard but are simply not that intelligent. A small percentage of them will move on to jobs in the same industry doing maintenance, towing, or other jobs in the general industry until those too are automated and an even smaller number will move to something totally different but most have no other useful skills, especially by that point, and no ability (or interest) to learn. The future is going to be interesting.

    5. Re:Not buying it by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      Soon Amazon will sell me a robot that buys things for itself off of Amazon...

      Soon? They already do. It's called Echo and it already orders stuff when little kids make wishes in its presence. You have to go out of your way to add a confirmation code if you don't want it to just order stuff at the drop of a hat. It's just a "plugin" away from ordering whatever it determines you need.

    6. Re:Not buying it by coofercat · · Score: 1

      If I can send it out at night to turn robot tricks to pay for it's amazon buying habit, then I'm in ;-)

    7. Re:Not buying it by j-beda · · Score: 1

      Amazon has many jobs that cant be automated because they need to employ a human.

      This is because many jobs require legal responsibility to be exercised and that does not exist under law for a robot. Put simply you cant send a robot to jail when it ships the wrong medicine to a patient killing them.

      We don't put people in jail who make this type of error either. This type of error (wrong medicine to patient kills them) is fairly common in the US (and worldwide for that matter), and automation is often one of the tools being used to minimize it.

      I can't think of any job Amazon has, other than perhaps some of the financials or engineering, where there are legal requirements for humans.

  12. Rich still getting richer by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Jobs and technology are mostly independent issues in the big picture. An economy is basically systematic bartering: you want stuff I have/produce, and I want stuff you have/produce. We trade to get what we want. Money, banks, etc. are simply tools to make such trades easier and scale-able.

    The problem is that politics, geopolitical complexities, and herd mentality create boom and bust cycles, and inequality where the winner takes all and the losers get tossed. These boom and bust cycles are probably as natural as the spiral arms in the Milky Way galaxy. Capitalism bubbles have been occurring for at least 400 years, long before the USA and the Federal Reserve existed (since many blame the FR).

    And capitalism does NOT guarantee reasonable equality. For the past the 40 years or so, the rich have got much richer while the rest mostly stagnated. E-commerce hasn't reversed this trend. The economy produces much more, but it's not trickling down. There seems to be a feedback cycle where the owner of machines and real-estate get yet more machines and real-estate, creating a winner-take-all economy. (It's similar to Marx's prediction.) Automation may be part of that, but it's also because the rich can buy up land and companies during slumps. The middle class is usually trying to make ends meet during slumps and so don't have enough spare cash to play that game nearly as much.

    The article is paywalled so I cannot see it, but I am skeptical of claims made by the WSJ. They are often biased.

    1. Re:Rich still getting richer by tomhath · · Score: 1

      And capitalism does NOT guarantee reasonable equality.

      Of course it doesn't, nor does socialism or anarchy. The strong, smart, and ambitious will collect resources and live comfortably under any system you can name.

    2. Re:Rich still getting richer by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Other nations such as Canada, Germany, Norway, and Japan seem to have more even distribution of income than USA. And while their cars and houses are probably on average smaller than ours, they do have better safety nets.

    3. Re:Rich still getting richer by swillden · · Score: 1

      And capitalism does NOT guarantee reasonable equality. For the past the 40 years or so, the rich have got much richer while the rest mostly stagnated.

      "Guarantee" is a very strong word, and I'm not sure I'd want to try to defend it. But I think it's clear that capitalism does tend to flatten out inequality over time. During periods of rapid technological change the social upheaval created provides great opportunities to create massive new wealth, and it ends up concentrated at first among the people best positioned to grab it. But as the new technologies settle in and it becomes about optimizing production rather than doing incredible new things, commoditization starts driving out the massive profits and the new wealth begins to spread out.

      That's the pattern we saw after the industrial revolution, at least, and it seems to me that it's likely the information age would eventually go the same way... except that this disruption looks to be one that will move us to a post-scarcity world, and capitalism probably isn't suited to that. Free markets are good at optimizing allocation of scarce resources, including labor, but what happens when labor is no longer scarce?

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    4. Re:Rich still getting richer by e_pluribus_funk · · Score: 1

      > I am skeptical of claims made by the WSJ. They are often biased.

      LOL. EVERYONE is biased.

    5. Re:Rich still getting richer by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      But I think it's clear that capitalism does tend to flatten out inequality over time.

      I don't think it is. I think the tail just keeps getting longer, and it makes the graph look flat, but only if you ignore just how tall it gets. The tail is getting longer, and the head is also getting taller.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    6. Re:Rich still getting richer by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      But I think it's clear that capitalism does tend to flatten out inequality over time.

      Sorry, it's not clear to me.

      During periods of rapid technological change the social upheaval created provides great opportunities to create massive new wealth, and it ends up concentrated at first among the people best positioned to grab it.

      And they become the new plutocrats, replacing the old ones. The new tech companies end up controlling standards and patents. It's kind of a network effect where you use control and patents to get even more control and patents.

      Microsoft got bigger by using its OS near-monopoly to subsidize their early Office software, whacking the Office competition into nothing. Similarly, Google is using its search near-monopoly to get a sales advantage on their other products. (Europe is suing them over that.) Facebook had competitors, but the network effect left only one winner: winner take all, losers dry up.

      And 100+ years ago, the railroad used its railroad monopoly to gain monopolies on OTHER resources by subsidizing shipping costs of their own brands/products until competitors died, then charged more because they had no competition any more. Pattern repeats: the rich use wealth to get richer and it snowballs.

      I agree new technology disrupts the current plutocrats and monopolies, but it just ends up creating new plutocrats and monopolies. It's plutocratic musical chairs.

    7. Re:Rich still getting richer by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      True, but WSJ has a certain known pattern of bias.

    8. Re:Rich still getting richer by e_pluribus_funk · · Score: 1

      We all do. Bias isn't a flaw in your thinking, or their thinking, or my thinking, it's literally the way we all think. Biases are simply the cognitive shortcuts we execute in order to get through our day - and most of our thinking and reasoning is just pulling things from cache, not actually thinking hard on things.

      I think, from your point of view, it might be better to accuse WSJ of having an agenda.

      Not trying to be pedantic, but I think it's a distinction worth making.

    9. Re:Rich still getting richer by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Skipping several caveats for brevity, I'll agree to that.

    10. Re:Rich still getting richer by skam240 · · Score: 1

      You don't know what the word socialism means do you? Even European models of limited (but greater than ours) socialism has resulted in greater economic equality then in the US and the extreme form of socialism, communism, literally is defined by economic equality.

      Read some Marx and maybe get out into the world a bit.

      --
      I ignore Anonymous Coward posts. If you want to discuss something, that's awesome. Log in.
  13. Humans Need not Apply by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    CGP Grey disagrees.
    Just want to say that I think his video by that title, "Humans Need not Apply," is worth watching.

  14. Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results by avandesande · · Score: 1
    --
    love is just extroverted narcissism
  15. Still apocalypse by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

    All those workers have to live close to the shipping warehouse, meaning the workers have to move in order to work for the big corporations and/or the death of stores in small towns.

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  16. Big Difference by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The last mechanical revolution automated manual labor. The coming will automate intelligence. I tickles me to see ignorant pie-in-the-sky morons crowing about what they don't understand.

  17. We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by jeff4747 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Not exactly surprising that the WSJ is not thinking terribly far ahead on this.

    The issue is not what has happened up until now. It is what happens in the decades to come. Because we do not have general-purpose AI yet, nor do we have sufficiently advanced robotics yet.

    The agricultural revolution displaced massive numbers of workers, but they could be employed by the industrial revolution.

    Now, let's try to apply that to a post-general purpose AI and advanced robotics world. You're a farmworker, and your family has been farmworkers for generations. Someone builds a new device, and you are now redundant. So you move to the cities....and there's no industrial revolution work to be done because its being done by general purpose AI and robotics.

    "You could get a job building the robots!!" No, why would you use a human to build the robots? You'd use another robot.

    Getting through this is going to require a lot of rethinking how society works. Since the dawn of civilization, we have defined and supported ourselves via work. Work will no longer be possible for a very, very, very large portion of the population. We need to start talking about this massive transition now if we want to make that transition without massive bloodshed.

    People to not peacefully starve to death.

    1. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      When you posit a false premise (strong AI and advanced robots will do everything) you get a false conclusion. Duh.

      What we have on the ground isn't AI except in a very loose definition. 'Advanced robots' are CNC machines with brushless motors/pure electric injection molding machines etc. Driverless cars is marketing hype for lane following assists.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    2. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People to not peacefully starve to death.

      Therefore robocop.

    3. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 1

      Complete automation in the near future is a fantasy advocated by people, I suspect, who don't have a broad experience with blue-collar jobs. That is, their imagination is limited to factory workers or a few other common tropes. There are many, many blue collar jobs for which there's no prospect of complete automation occurring within the next century, maybe longer. A lot of jobs require mental flexibility and / or physical dexterity which are far beyond the capabilities of any machine or AI.

      There also exists an entire category of service jobs in which customers simply don't want to be served by a machine. Few people want to go see a play performed by robot actors, or get a massage by a robot, or get served at a fancy restaurant by a robot (aside from novelty-based exceptions). Interacting with other humans at a personal level is part of the experience and appeal of many services.

      Naturally, lots of jobs where people are currently just human cogs in a machine will certainly go away. The increase in human labor costs and the advent of more capable and flexible machines makes this inevitable. We saw the same thing with jobs that involved nothing but exploiting human muscle power or basic dexterity. But there are plenty of jobs that are simply not suited to automation yet, perhaps because they work in a dynamic environment where robots couldn't cope, or simply require the mental flexibility that even our current most advanced "AI" currently lacks.

      We're not anywhere near the point of manufacturing drop-in replacement machines for human workers, and so it's rather premature to start "transforming our society" before we even have a serious grasp on the ultimate effects of this new technology, and what counter-acting benefits it might provide to the inevitable drawbacks and problems. Most futurists have been historically awful at actually predicting the future. To believe that we can do better where everyone else failed is the height of hubris, which, incidentally, seems to be par for the course among the Slashdot / tech crowd.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    4. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      We're not anywhere near the point of manufacturing drop-in replacement machines for human workers, and so it's rather premature to start "transforming our society"

      Try reading the post again. The point is to start the conversation about it, because rushing this will cause massive violence. Not to start transforming this instant.

      We're talking about re-doing about 8000 years of how society has functioned. We can't do that peacefully if we start figuring it out when the AIs and robots have already started displacing lots of workers.

    5. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      *facepalm*

      This time, try actually reading the post. You'll quickly find it is not referring to our current situation, but the oncoming changes over the next few decades. If we're going to get through those changes without massive slaughter, we're going to have to start figuring out a plan.

    6. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Now, let's try to apply that to a post-general purpose AI and advanced robotics world. You're a farmworker, and your family has been farmworkers for generations. Someone builds a new device, and you are now redundant. So you move to the cities....and there's no industrial revolution work to be done because its being done by general purpose AI and robotics.

      In short, the last possible use for humans in the future was to spread out through space and supervise a bunch of robots. But we decided that space wasn't that important, and now we are still barely dabblers compared to where we could have been due to decades of dicking around instead of really pushing the state of the art. Now some of us are finally getting serious about space development, but it's probably too late. Even if you had someplace for them to go, you couldn't get enough humans off this mudball to make any difference in a reasonable period of time without space elevator technology.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    7. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 1

      We don't even know yet about how upcoming technology will affect us in a positive or negative way. It's pure, utter speculation at that point, and all I see here is a lot of fear-mongering to try to panic people into implementing massive and potentially risky social and economic reforms which have no proven track record. And speaking of such, so far, the historical track record has been that people have found other employment *every* other time such transformations occurred. You're apparently betting AGAINST the established precedent, and as such, I think the burden of proof is on the people who are predicting a cataclysm of some sort rather than a simple shift in employment, same as always.

      You can talk all you want about things, but I'd strongly oppose any pre-emptive action before we even see the most remote example of this taking place on a mass scale. For all the intent to make things better, I'd say there's an equal chance of actually making things worse. As such, I think some cautionary notes are warranted in that regard.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    8. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      will do everything

      Is English your 2nd language?
      "will do" means in the future.

      What we have on the ground

      This is the present, now.

    9. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by Nicolas+Cage · · Score: 0

      I don't even know what point you're trying to make here. This guy was saying we need to be planning ahead and you're saying... not to? You're pretty sure that robots are NOT going to become more and more advanced. Why? Does your imagination work in reverse or something? The other day I was making fun of Elon Musk and his flights of fancy regarding AI, but you've got to be on the complete opposite end of the scale. I think it's also totally insane to stand there with your arms crossed and insist that everything will be fine, there won't be any kind of societal upheaval caused by a second industrial revolution, and the economy will just work itself out (like it always does, right?). Yeah guys, don't worry about it!

    10. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by briancox2 · · Score: 1

      Yes indeed. Let's think very far ahead on this.

      I'm glad you brought up the agricultural revolution. The effect that ultimately occurred in agriculture, once we went from 99% of the population needing to make food to less than 1% of the population needing to make food, was that the supply of food went into an enormous abundance and the price for the average consumer dropped to the point that no today, even the very poor in America do not need to know how to cook because they can eat prepared foods (food with even more productivity added). Whereas the diet of the average American before the Industrial revolution consisted of food that they had to prepare for themselves from the ground all the way to their dinner plate, now they can afford to have others do much of the dirty work.

      Just as the Industrial Revolution increased our ability to HAVE lots of food and food that was easy to consume, so with Industry 4.0 and the Robotic Revolution increase our ability to have every manufactured good that you can imagine. Once we remove human labor from the manufacturing of goods, the transportation and warehousing of goods and even from the gathering of raw materials necessary to manufacture goods, prices of EVERYTHING will plummet and there will be more abundance than anyone can dream of. Things will eventually get to the point where anyone will be able to scrape together a few good robots, some solar panels and their personal transport drones and go live on an otherwise uninhabited hill or even a hillside. The robots will build them a house and farm the land to feed their family. And then what do they need so much money for anyway? They'll be free to work on their painting or gardening or whatever they wish.

      But in the meantime what will they do? Just as near the beginning of the Industrial Revolution people will have jobs that would seem unbelievable 20 years ago. The Middle Class will hire full time butlers to organize their personal social lives. There will be full time home decorators who constantly redecorate the flowers and paintings on the counters and walls of the 5-10% top earners. Not just the very wealthy but the Middle Class and even some Lower Class will have full time health coaches and they will be studying every subject and hobby they have any interest in ... since their job now only requires 15-25 solid hours of work per week.

      Cities will not just have road workers and other city workers to keep their city functional. They will have gardeners and artists that freshen up the looks of sidewalks and neighborhoods to give them an English Garden style of perfection. There will be poets and writers literally making money from every kind of novel you can imagine. The amount of music, film and other creative media will explode like nothing you can imagine.

      Just as the people who heard of the new jobs from the original Industrial Revolution were incredulous that no one could ever make a living doing something as useless and silly as serving food to other people, so the jobs of the next Industrial Revolution look extravagant and unbelievable. But we will do them for the same reason we've done everything that we do that goes beyond merely taking care of our basic survival needs -- it's interesting!

      --
      We should learn what we need to know about issues, before we decide what we need to feel about them.
    11. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      The Middle Class will hire full time butlers to organize their personal social lives.

      First, what middle class?

      Second, why hire a human butler?

      We've been down this organizational path before. Managers in companies used to each have a secretary, with senior management having more than one. Now managing the calendar and sending "memos" is done by the manager directly, using something like Outlook. On the home front, this sort of organization is the primary selling point of Alexa, Google Home and similar.

      So why would we turn that all back around and go with a human?

      There will be full time home decorators who constantly redecorate the flowers and paintings on the counters and walls of the 5-10% top earners

      Robots, with AI arranging the flowers.

      Not just the very wealthy but the Middle Class and even some Lower Class will have full time health coaches

      AI

      Cities will not just have road workers and other city workers to keep their city functional

      Robots. Also, don't need nearly as much in the way of roads since people are no longer commuting to non-existent jobs.

      They will have gardeners and artists that freshen up the looks of sidewalks and neighborhoods to give them an English Garden style of perfection

      Robots and AI.

      And so on.

      Your proposals are kind of like what a 1850's person thought an automated dishwasher would be. They presumed some sort of machine with arms scrubbing plates in a sink, because that's what humans did, and they only envisioned a direct replacement for a human doing the job. Instead we have boxes under the counter that scrub chemically.

      We can't just assume a human would do the job because we currently can't think of a way to automate it.

    12. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by briancox2 · · Score: 1

      Robots and AI will never replace human creativity. The fact that they can make something will never mean they will make something of high quality.

      --
      We should learn what we need to know about issues, before we decide what we need to feel about them.
    13. Re:We are not at the end-state, WSJ. by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      The fact that they can make something will never mean they will make something of high quality.

      And you think people are willing to pay for "high quality"? If so, you've never been inside WalMart, or have seen a recent movie.

  18. AI is different by bluepuma · · Score: 1

    We had a lot of technologies established supporting the human work and employment, agreed. But if those next-gen machines (AI+robots) are suddenly more intelligent, faster and stronger, on the the other side don't need sleep, don't get sick and don't earn a salary - what is left there for us to do except for writing poems?

  19. 'Good News' doesn't sell, FUD does by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

    Fireman rescues kitten, film at 11

    You can't sensationalize a headline like that. It fades into the background noise.

    Fireman indicted in string of arson fires causing $100,000,000 in damages, film at 11

    That gets peoples attention. This is why people need to learn to IGNORE MEDIA HYPE.

  20. End Game by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Eventually there will be just two 'productive' people in the world. One will own all the farms, the farming robots and the food delivery infrastructure and will charge the other person trillions of dollars just for simple food to stay alive. The other will own all the construction robots and pharmaceutical companies and will charge the first person trillions of dollars for home repairs and the prescription drugs they need to stay alive. Everyone else will be unable to afford trillion-dollar robot-farmed groceries or trillion-dollar robot-made mobile homes and will have nothing of value to offer the only two productive people in the world other than entertainment. They will have turned to crime and been efficiently incarcerated by robotic police officers and thereby forfeited their right to vote and possibly hunted for sport.

    1. Re: End Game by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Trillions for groceries? I think I could find a couple of acres to farm and only charge 100 billion. I'd bet the farm owner wouldn't even notice the competition at that point.

  21. More jobs, but not the same jobs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is a wonderful observation on the problem of automation and a service economy. Sure automation creates new jobs, but it raises the skill floor with every step that gets automated. That means we need more specialized workers, and less unskilled workers.

    This sounds like a good thing, but what about the people who have difficulty with complex tasks? What about when we have automated all of the unskilled jobs? The trend will continue, and each time it takes a step it will require a more skilled and educated worker to take that new job the it replaced. With no unskilled jobs, there is no way to "earn" your way through college. This means that people will have to fund their education from family wealth, or finance it, only to have the job be automated and their qualifications become useless (at least a fraction will have this happen, which will be complete financial ruin). Eventually there will be no place for unskilled labor, and that anchor will grow in size until it sinks us. The problem isn't the number of jobs available, its having the right people available to fill them.

  22. Need change in mindset by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The prevalent mindset is "I work hard for my lifestyle. It's time for those lazy SOBs to get to work!" But, as the post above states, we no longer need to work hard for our lifestyle, and a little income redistribution will solve a lot of problems.

  23. Not just Elon Musk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There are other predictions to an upset to our society by a rapid increase in automation:

    • more productive means fewer but better paying jobs.
    • increasing population means more unemployed.
    • more unemployment means either growing entitlements or social strife and riots.
  24. This only works up to a point by ErichTheRed · · Score: 2

    I think we hit the peak usefulness of the "retrain for a better job" advice back in the early 90s when large corporations got around to destroying their "legacy" white-collar workforces. This was driven by computerization of clerical office work finally reaching a point where permanently fewer humans were needed. Back when I first graduated from college (around 1998), one of my first IT jobs was with a huge life insurance company. According to some of the old-timers I was working under, the then-sparsely populated headquarters was jammed wall-to-wall with various clerical workers up until the 80s or so. The HQ took up two Manhattan city blocks, plus a huge tower uptown, plus they had tons of large regional offices around the country. It was apparently so full that the company staggered start times so that crowds didn't overwhelm the elevators and escalators in the building. Maybe some of those clerical workers got better jobs, but I don't think that's going to happen this time around.

    The fundamental problem that needs to be solved is this: If you want to continue with a consumer-based society, you must find some way to allow everyone to sell their labor for a price that allows them to continue consuming and keeping businesses alive. This includes everyone -- not just STEM graduates, CS people, programmers, data scientists, etc. The economy only works when the majority of people can afford to participate at a level appropriate to their skills. Large fully automated cloud data centers employ 20 security guards, HVAC techs, disk-pullers and rack-and-stackers...not 5000 system administrators. Automated warehouses employ a couple of robot-minders. Automated trucks employ zero truck drivers.

    If we still have to cling to the idea that everyone has to have a job and earn money to be worth anything in society, how do we avoid nasty problems that crop up when the majority of people are unemployed and desperate? Technology people tend not to understand this, but look outside the tech bubble and see what kind of work the vast majority of people do all day. It's repetitive, automatable and may go away very soon.

    1. Re:This only works up to a point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...how do we avoid nasty problems that crop up when the majority of people are unemployed and desperate?

      By creating robots and tech to monitor and suppress any revolts!

  25. USA has high retraining costs with loans that can' by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 1

    USA has high retraining costs with loans that can't be easy gotten rid in bankruptcy and most college credits don't transfer
    https://www.usnews.com/news/na...

  26. fear not the robot apocalypse by roc97007 · · Score: 1

    The "robot apocalypse" has been threatened for a long time, but deploying robots increase complexity, which usually means they need trained people to keep them going. This is not necessarily what TFA is talking about, but to me the reason not to fear the robot apocalypse is, robots don't fix themselves.

    At least, not yet.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  27. Econ 101 refresher by hey! · · Score: 4, Informative

    Workers are hired until the marginal value of their labor equals the marginal cost of that labor. You hire Alice at $50,000 salary because she'll bring in $100,000. Bob, because of diminishing returns, will only bring in $75,000, but at $50K hiring him is still a no-brainer. But if Carol will only bring in $50,000, you won't hire her unless you can get her for less than that.

    What this means is there is no general economic law that connects changes in worker productivity to a particular kind of change in employment levels. It depends on what you do with that productivity.

    Imagine a world in which computers were laboriously assembled by workers on breadboards using prototyping techniques. Let's say it costs you $10,000 to assemble a computer this way. In that case you'd only sell a small number of computers because they'd be highly specialized machines. Now suppose you introduce modern assembly techniques, with printed circuit boards and wave soldering. Now the computer which cost you ten thousand dollars to assemble can be made for well under $100.

    If you continue to sell a very small number of computers at high prices, you'll lay off most of your workforce. On the other hand if you start selling your computers for $180, you'll end up adding to your workforce. Both scenarios turn increased worker productivity into increased profit, but in different ways.

    Now let's imagine an entirely different scenario: a fast food restaurant. It's hard to imagine selling a lot more Big Macs because you drop the price. Nonetheless the same principle applies. If you can find a way to make money off the newly surplus labor, employment wont' go down. If you can't, you'll let people go.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    1. Re:Econ 101 refresher by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Could it be said that automation converts operating costs into capital costs, and since the operating costs are less predictable and more heavily taxed, automation wins when applicable and the cost of capital is low enough?

    2. Re:Econ 101 refresher by Kjella · · Score: 1

      I think you're missing the key issue here which is that even without labor things cost money, that Big Mac isn't conjured out of thin air. With higher automation more of money flows to the corporate owners and less back to the labor force through wages. The purchasing power gained by paying less isn't enough to offset the purchasing power lost to unemployment. It's essentially the same argument some make about cheap goods from Amazon/Wal-Mart/China, it kills the local economy. Except in this case we're paying the machines' owners and killing the labor economy. Don't forget that the best productivity possible is a divide by zero...

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    3. Re:Econ 101 refresher by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      There is a limit to things such as the number of customers in an area. Effectively there is a 'soft' cap on how many burgers you can sell. Once you reach this limit, any improvement in production and automation can only improve profits if it reduces the number of workers required to produce this quota of products.

      It is absolutely critical to also remember that even if unemployment and non-viable working conditions are extremely bad for the economy and even companies themselves in the long-term, every last one of the C-levels at each individual company approaches this problem with the same exact mindset:

      "Screw them, I'll have made my riches by then anyways"

  28. Conflates profit and jobs. by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

    There are always larger factors at work than Automation. Its just one of many ingredients in the mix.

    What drives making 'profit' is someone else somewhere has to spend more than their income. Spending creates savings. Ultimately this question makes its way back to who is issuing the currency, their spending decisions that drives aggregate profit.

    The private sector always looks to maximise profit. A market entirely left to its own devices Iteratively Revises Down the amount of profit it makes because of changes in wage bargaining power, automation. Reduce workforce with automation and you're reducing someone's paying customers somewhere. So its self-sabotaging. However this dynamic is continuously changing(never static) as innovation creates new products, regulation and protections demand higher levels of quality and currency issuers get to work in Congress/Parliament and conduct discretionary spending which raises aggregate wealth for the private sector.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    Robots (broadly automation over last 250 years) always changes the mix of how many people are needed to manufacture X in industry Y. But that's just a subset of what's going on. If we look at 'work' that is both profitable and not profitable its immediately obvious that there is more work than at any point in human history that needs to be done. eg: Today's displaced retails workers could become tomorrows electronic repair technicians if regulations are introduced to reduce e-waste. Manufacturers are required to make stuff that can be un-made, fixed, recycled.

    Ageing population suddenly stops being a problem if you introduce the right level of technology and job creation for instance.

    Also Jobs that stick around are the ones that have a contingent element of responsibility attached to them. Its easy to automate a Lawyer but hard to change a system that demands a human accountability in the process. That is a big part of why so many jobs are not being automated but others are: A coordinator who is legally responsible but not human? How do you sue that?

    I dont buy into 'robots are here so work has ended' it never will and the people selling this idea well meaning or not don't see the whole picture.

  29. Nonsense by tomhath · · Score: 1

    You're saying that things were just rosy during the Dark Ages when there were no productivity gains for hundreds of years? I don't think so.

    The Great Depression wasn't caused by productivity gains, and the Soviet Union collapsed because productivity was too low, not too high.

    1. Re:Nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're saying that things were just rosy during the Dark Ages when there were no productivity gains for hundreds of years? I don't think so.

      The Great Depression wasn't caused by productivity gains, and the Soviet Union collapsed because productivity was too low, not too high.

      Are you talking about the Christian Dark Age? The old one or the next one?

    2. Re:Nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Soviet Union collapsed because productivity was too low, not too high.

      Not true at all.

      The root of the problem of Soviet Union was central planification for every aspect of the economy when it's impossible to do it without knowing all the variables (including "human mood" for example) because the economy is a chaos model like the weather.

      Some sectors were not enough productive, others were as or more productive as in the West (each year, they were pile of food rotting because there was no transportation to distribute them).

      Add an old fashion "too proud to change mind apparatchiks totalitarism"* that limits the "degrees of liberty"* (the scientific meaning) of economy and you have a recipe for disasters.
      * you can replace by "too proud to change mind olligarchists totalitarism" and "too big to fail" in the West.

      I'm not a fan of "communism" or "liberalism", as always, the optimal spot is somewhere in the middle.

  30. Not anymore by Jeremi · · Score: 1

    As customers flock to these new offerings, companies have to hire more people.

    s/hire more people/buy more robots/g

    --


    I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  31. We Need Automated Consumers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I should be able to press a button and have my robot read my email, author my semi-anonymous slashdot trolling, and enjoy my beer for me, so that I don't have to.

  32. Re:USA has high retraining costs with loans that c by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

    Hint: If you can't get into a college with credits that transfer, you don't belong in college, at all.

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  33. ATM chart contradiction by Tablizer · · Score: 3, Informative

    The ATM graph doesn't appear to show what the author claims it shows. It looks like ATM's greatly delayed the growth of bank teller employment. Without ATM's, it looks like the total tellers would be roughly more than double the current quantity (although the chart doesn't cover enough years to get a good feel for the pre-ATM rate). The rate of teller growth may be finally going up again, but that's probably despite ATM's if we look at the pre-ATM rate. Using that chart, it appears ATM's indeed did take a big bite out of overall teller jobs.

  34. There are limits to extrapolating from experience. by hey! · · Score: 1

    Imagine you are a Roman in the Second Century BC; over the past 500 years Rome has grown from a village to the dominant force on the peninsula, to a pan-Mediterranean power. It would seem to you to be a kind of iron law of history: expansion is always good for Rome.

    What you don't know is that you are approaching a kind of inflection point -- several inflection points actually. Despite the enormous wealth expansion is bringing into the city, you are reaching the point where Rome can't pay for expansion by taxes and do it with volunteers. The adaptations Rome will make to deal with that will fundamentally alter the character of Rome's cherished institutions, and Romans themselves.

    My point is that there are limits to the power of experience to predict the future. Sometimes circumstances which have remained unchanged for centuries evaporate overnight. So while our experience since the Industrial Revolution tells us not to assume that technological innovation will result in net job losses, we shouldn't be to quick to jump to the opposite conclusion either. We should always keep an eye peeled for things we have always taken for granted that might not be so certain.

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  35. Bull plops by burtosis · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Throughout history technology and innovations have solved specific labor problems and opened the way for more relatively unskilled labor to be done. The wheel meant it was possible to carry heavier things and people were free to work on other things. The cotton gin required less work to process cotton, opening more jobs for relatively unskilled work. Same with the printing press, etc.

    What we have here is different. Cheap automation, over the next 100 years, will be able to do any work a human can do, but far more cheaply and 24-7-365 (366 on leap years). AI will be able to replace every white collar job, from help desks to engineers to lawyers - and do it far cheaper and 24-7-365.25. They will be able to be trained quickly and efficiently should a new task be desired and the way it's going only a few people will reap thier rewards. Please explain to me how even skilled workers are going to be able to compete with this because soon we will have AI and generic robotic automation, deployed rapidly to novel situations and its like nothing this world has seen before.

    1. Re:Bull plops by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But of course we are supposing that mass production is the best way to make things. Another technology that has even more potential than automation is the maker revolution.
      In pre-industrial days if I wanted a pot I went to a potter. If I wanted shoes I went to a cobbler. They made one of exactly what I wanted. Then mass production came along and someone built a factory and made 10,000 pots. Now they had to find 10,000 people to buy them. So was created the advertising industry, and all of its supporting industries like television and Google.
      But suppose instead of buy a $100 pair of shoes made in a factory I had a machine that could make a pair or shoes of a pot any time I needed one? For less than the mass production factory? Suddenly it doesn't matter if that factory employs people or robots. It's economically untenable.
      That's the real disruptive technology. That's the real post scarcity economy.

    2. Re:Bull plops by burtosis · · Score: 1

      Who owns the rights to the machine? Are you making your monthly subscription payments? Are you in violation of patents and licensing? Because the way things are going makers will be locked away in autonomous prisons if they attempt to circumvent the protections of the few.

  36. Re:There are limits to extrapolating from experien by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

    " Despite the enormous wealth expansion is bringing into the city, you are reaching the point where Rome can't pay for expansion by taxes and do it with volunteers."

    Problem with that logic on just this specific point is that in Rome as with modern economies today taxes don't pay for spending. Its the other way around you have to issue a currency BEFORE you tax it back. Do this over X iterations and as long as issued/spent/created unit of account is greater than what is taxed back your civilisation remains solvent.

    In Rome they understood this as in the archaeological sites in Pompeii some of the accounting is preserved. Roman one such example in a book the brief history of money: A governor asking for an expansion of credit tallies or minted coin to employ for more labour resources to expand the city. What it brings into focus is the point: If money is a soft constrain then what are the hard constraints? Eg: how many people, resources that can be brought to bear to make something. Taxation is for subservience and to keep people operating under the empire/country that they live in: sovereignty that's how the British colonised so many places they make people work for some form of legal IOU else they put law enforcement/the army onto you.

  37. Re:There are limits to extrapolating from experien by hey! · · Score: 1

    Of course they understood they had money problems. What they didn't know was the consequence of their solution to those problems, which was essentially to privatize the army.

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  38. Econ 201 refresher by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Forget everything we taught you in 101. In the real world, business owners barely know what they are doing and will instead do whatever they think will meet their personal goals. There is no economic law that connects business behavior and rationality or forethought. You can generally bet though that productivity gains will be more likely funneled into owner profit while employment grows as slowly as possible.

    1. Re:Econ 201 refresher by hey! · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Having been a business owner myself, with an excitable and somewhat undisciplined partner, I have no illusions about economic models predicated on perfectly rational choices. However, most people know not to hire someone if they won't generate the revenue to cover their salary.

      The flip side is often problematic: people who refuse to hire the help they need and so limit their profits. That's very common.

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    2. Re:Econ 201 refresher by Koreantoast · · Score: 1

      The flip side is often problematic: people who refuse to hire the help they need and so limit their profits. That's very common.

      Understandable. Much harder to measure opportunity and risk going forward - whether or not the market will materialize, or be stable enough, to make the investment of hiring people worthwhile. Classic question of if, when, and how much to expand. Something that has made and broken companies particularly in tech.

  39. Re:There are limits to extrapolating from experien by helga+the+viking · · Score: 1

    Exactly. The Roman empire collapsed a few hundred years later under very similar mechanics to what's happening around the world now. Call it artificial scarcity of money/keystrokes. Rome had many factors that caused its downfall but as soon as you start privatising armies and running the empire under basically austerity forgetting how money works it becomes brittle and unable to respond to challenges.

    Even the 'dont panic' automation articles are not comprehensive. They ignore the larger context if you're sitting in an artificial non-optimal domain because there is not full employment + looking at automation and then narrowing it based on what the private sector sees as 'profitable' work (Marx was empirically right about the tendency of the rate of profit to fall over time). We can be led to believe robots will utterly take all the jobs and miss the causation/loopbacks in the system.

  40. Re:USA has high retraining costs with loans that c by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hint: If you can't get into a college with credits that transfer, you don't belong in college, at all.

    You must be far, far out of the loop. Even basic courses like calculus or English composition don't necessarily transfer between schools of equal merit. It's a way to force "lock-in of students" as they say.

    Choosing to not cooperate with other institutions with transfer credits has been used as an intentional method ensuring that you only need to court students once: upon registration. After that, there is no worry in cutting costs, having bad advisors, or raising prices. The students can't leave and take their credits with them.

    The technique is quite old but really exploded about 20 years ago. Now there aren't any reputable North American colleges left that don't do this scummy practice.

    If you did not know this you really should not be giving any advice about modern education.

  41. Robots with AI are not like capital machinery by mbkennel · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It is unwise to apply historical precedent when the difference may be qualitatively profoundly different.

    Robots with AI are not mere machinery, they are much more like slaves. And there were serious problems economically for non-slaves because of competition from slave labor. This was a big deal in the Roman empire.

    As usual, the elites owned almost all the slaves---and one reason Gaius Julius Caesar was assassinated by the oligarchy was because he favored restrictions on slavery in order to benefit the wages of free Romans.

    Now robot AI slaves are unlikely to spontaneously revolt, and a major category of these will of course be armed guards, Unsullied Machines, who will prevent democracy from imposing restrictions on the elite's slavery.

    1. Re:Robots with AI are not like capital machinery by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      When the final link in the chain which connects the classes - security - is broken by automation, the lower classes will no longer be an asset, but a liability, to the elite. I fear this will not end well for most of us.

      Soldiers and police occupy a peculiar role in society. Sure, they keep the lower classes in line, but they also guarantee their own survival - and thus the survival of the lower classes from which they overwhelmingly come - by being necessary for the protection of the elite, and also by deterring the elite from acting against them through the threat of force. When the elite have access to automated security, the threat of rebellion is gone, and the efficiency of their automated security will inevitably exceed that of human security. Consequently, they will have perfectly loyal warriors which humans can not defeat, and nothing to prevent them from using those warriors to rid the world of their undesirables.

      Unless and until communities become fully self-sufficient in every regard, including defense, and are thus able to deter the elite from using autonomous weapons to carry out a liquidation of the human race, then the automation of work, and especially of soldiering and policing, absolutely must be curtailed. This is also a profoundly important Second Amendment issue: In a world where autonomous weapons wielded by state actors and criminals alike are a plausible threat, automated arms are a necessity for the defense of country, life, and property, due the need to match or exceed the aggressor's combat efficiency. Where's Arnold when you need him?

      Being too dangerous for the elite to attack, and necessary for their survival, has been the survival strategy of the lower classes for centuries. When neither of those things are true any longer, our freedom - and our very survival - will be in the worst danger that history has ever seen. Don't fear the robot slaves. Fear the robot soldiers - and covet them.

  42. Re:USA has high retraining costs with loans that c by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

    No I don't 'know this', because you just made it up. It's bullshit. Nationally Accredited colleges still accept transfer credits from other accredited colleges (some limits, fairly recent or testing required).

    You are thinking of places like 'University of Phoenix'. Which is what I was talking about, if you can't get into a college with academic admission standards, you don't belong in college. Start at a Jr college, their first 2 years of credits transfer too, (but generally not the remedials).

    --
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  43. wary you should be by epine · · Score: 1

    Throughout history, automation commonly creates more, and better-paying, jobs than it destroys. The reason: companies don't use automation simply to produce the same thing more cheaply; instead, they find ways to offer entirely new, improved products.

    Yes, a lovely chestnut, this history thing.

    For example, throughout history, the American housing market never went down. (2007 just called: they want their barm back.)

    Like Moore's "law" (not so much in evidence lately), these are not laws but inductive extrapolations.

    In particular, the assumption is that you won't run into a motivated reversal.

    This would be where an entity—let's say Goldman Sachs—doesn't find a way to cash in on mass populations lulled into treating inductive extrapolations as blue chip gold bullion.

    This would be wary you should be.

  44. Like it or not, the Future is JOBLESS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Like it or not, the future is without jobs. We must think about the legal / ethic issues and we must think about The Universal Basic Income. Technology is ahead... Politics and ethics need to catch up.

  45. A machine can make a car, but will never buy a car by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Henry T. Ford.

    Yes, U got the jest of it.

  46. induction interruptus by epine · · Score: 1

    In The Big Short the two young guys explicitly state that their business model is based on the observation that people prefer sunny thoughts, so they bet on big payoffs when sunny thoughts mushroom cloud (while loosing small when daisies reign).

    The movie doesn't have a collar wad at Goldman swivel-face toward the camera to make the same statement, so let me do it here:

    Our business model is based on the observation that no matter times badly burned, people never just never learn to sufficiently fear developments never before witnessed.

    Time after time, a capricious, long-dormant tail slams down ruin and wreckage, and afterwards Goldman emerges from their sagacious tail-proof tail-packed den of stout timber iniquity tens of billions of dollars wealthier still.

    For my money, you can bet large that Goldman is presently eyeing up the looming robot apocalypse as a convenient compass-spinning cover story for some devious underlying snookery even as we speak.

    Now if I could figure out what this angle would be, they'd be making a movie about me, and not those chumps from The Big Short.

    But unfortunately, induction interruptus resembles a Romulan bird of prey.

    Generally speaking, once seen, twice fried.

  47. Could State Tax On Robots Slow Automation? by taskforceken · · Score: 1

    Oh oh, look out, another new innovation from California... San Francisco City Supervisor Pushes State Tax On Robots To Slow Automation http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.c...

  48. If this were true, massive catacyclysms make jobs by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    If this were true, then a large cataclysm would create more jobs, both from new construction, and by replacing inefficient buildings and energy systems with resilient ones.

    Provided people learned from the mistake of building on a flood plain, or siting a nuclear reactor next to a city instead of on an island.

    (object lesson: this is happening in Japan, where reactor impacted regions now have solar and wind farms, and in China, where industrial impacted sites now have solar farms, but to date has not happened in the US, other than due to fires in SF and Seattle and other major cities, which caused rebuilding which adressed the primary risk factors (wood in SF in a quake zone, buildings on a flood area in Seattle))

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  49. Bad Conclusion by JimSadler · · Score: 2

    No ! Companies do not have to hire more employees due to more products being sold. They simply need more automation and also need to get rid of employees as human workers are cost negative. Further, when the company makes more money that have no reason at all to spend or invest it in the US.. In other words the notion of trickle down economics is a sick joke.

  50. One thing you ignore by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    If I already own everything I really don't give two shits whether there's anyone to buy it from me. That's how ruling classes work.

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  51. Jobs matter by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    unless you can convince Americans and people in general that taxation without a direct benefit to yourself isn't theft. Note I said 'direct'. Not getting threatened with violence from poor people doesn't count. Most folks would prefer to counter those threats with greater violence if history is any indication.

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    1. Re:Jobs matter by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Folks just need to realize they're already paying for everything. e.g. uh, oh, why should *my* tax dollars pay for that deadbeat's healthcare? Well... you're already paying for all the politician's healthcare! And it's not a cheap plan either... they're getting the best damn healthcare that YOUR tax dollars can buy.

  52. Critical problem overlooked by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Now... with what money and/or time will the displaced workers retrain and relocate to where these jobs are?

  53. An Absurd Assumption - by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "... As customers flock to these new offerings, companies have to hire more people."

    The author of this statement assumes that there will never be a point at which every job in a given company can and will be automated.

    When they don't need you anymore, they won't feed you anymore.

  54. Re:There are limits to extrapolating from experien by skam240 · · Score: 1

    See, that's a not a problem to that logic. The posters point has nothing to do with what you seem to want it to be about which seems to be conservative monetary policy issues and everything to do with just pointing out that one cant predict the future based on the past. Poking holes in the metaphor doesnt mean the point is false.

    Basically, you're ignoring the point and running on an unrelated tangent.

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  55. Removing minimum wage ? by aepervius · · Score: 1

    Removing minimum wage until that person can barely pay enough to eat in spite of working their number of hours, while not having UBI or a safety net more or less means you are creating a class of indentured or downright enslaved people, and in the end run you STILL have to have a replacement for job as otherwise such people will sooner or later find out that violence is a better solution to quasi slavery. On the contrary I think to avoid that scenario it would be MUCH better to have a high minimum wage, have a QUICK robotization, and then have politics and rich folk confronted with the problem quickly rather than slowly, thus forcing the same end solution (UBI+ safety nets) with far more minimal pains.

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  56. Re: The aggregate job count is rarely the complain by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Can you point me to the law that says for a Virginian tech job you have to be from Virginia, or even IN Virginia whilst doing it?

  57. Yeah, sure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    " As customers flock to these new offerings, companies have to hire more people."
    As customers flock to these new offerings companies have to reprogram their robots.

  58. Local McDonalds Full Now by p0larity · · Score: 1

    The new McDonalds ordering terminals seem to make sure the restaurant is FULL all the time of people waiting now. It's more convenient and you confirm your own order, so you know it's not going to be screwed up. (At least the order, who knows about what they make to fill it.)

    All this is to say the actual purchase experience is better. So more people go, and the staff seem to have increased in number in the kitchen. (You can see right into the kitchen.)

    Data point of one, but it seems at least in this case automation reduced the annoyance with low-wage workers taking your order correctly, and increased staff and volume.

    Someone who actually works as a manager for one of these places can probably elaborate.

  59. Re:If this were true, massive catacyclysms make jo by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

    Those jobs do not last long enough to make an entire economy. Also they are far too few disasters, especially if you actually do learn from them.

  60. Re:USA has high retraining costs with loans that c by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I went to two different colleges a few years apart.

    At the second one, I had to retake CS freakin' 101 because it wouldn't transfer! *ALL* of my other math and CS classes transferred - but not Intro to Programming.

    Careful about calling bullshit on the other AC's claim that basic courses don't necessarily transfer.