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Climate Change Could Wipe Out a Third of Parasite Species, Study Finds (nytimes.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The New York Times (Warning: source may be paywalled, alternative source): Recently, scientists carried out the first large-scale study of what climate change may do to the world's much-loathed parasites. The team came to a startling conclusion: as many as one in three parasite species may face extinction in the next century. As global warming raises the planet's temperature, the researchers found, many species will lose territory in which to survive. Some of their hosts will be lost, too. Researchers have begun carefully studying the roles that parasites play. They make up the majority of the biomass in some ecosystems, outweighing predators sharing their environments by a factor of 20 to 1. For decades, scientists who studied food webs drew lines between species -- between wildebeest and the grass they grazed on, for example, and between the wildebeest and the lions that ate them. In a major oversight, they didn't factor in the extent to which parasites feed on hosts. As it turns out, as much as 80 percent of the lines in a given food web are links to parasites. They are big players in the food supply.

Some researchers had already investigated the fate of a few parasite species, but Colin J. Carlson, lead author of the study and a graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley, and his colleagues wanted to get a global view of the impact of climate change. Some kinds won't lose much in a warming world, the study found. For instance, thorny-headed worms are likely to be protected because their hosts, fish and birds, are common and widespread. But other types, such as fleas and tapeworms, may not be able to tolerate much change in temperature; many others infect only hosts that are facing extinction, as well. In all, roughly 30 percent of parasitic species could disappear, Mr. Carlson concluded. The impact of climate change will be as great or greater for these species as for any others studied so far.
The study has been published in Science Advances.

36 of 240 comments (clear)

  1. so... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    study of what climate change may do to the world's much-loathed parasites. The team came to a startling conclusion: as many as one in three parasite species may face extinction in the next century

    So, once chance in three we get rid of the lawyers?

    Could be worth it then.

    1. Re:so... by Hognoxious · · Score: 3, Funny

      Messing with ecosystems can have unexpected consequences. You might get a threefold increase of politicians or an epidemic of myxomatosis resistant middle managers.

      Better the devil you know.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    2. Re: so... by Kiuas · · Score: 5, Insightful

      15 years later, climate is the same

      The same? What the fuck man? Are you living in a basement? I'm 27 years old living in southern Finland, and the climate most definitely is not 'the same' as it used to be when I was a kid. Winters start a lot later in general. It's normal to have a winter here or there that's warmer and gets less snow, but in since the weather is more unstable now and each year tends to be on average hotter than the last, with nearly every year in the 2000s breaking records, the snow doesn't stay on the ground but melts, which obviously in the long term is doing damage to plants and wildlife whose natural cycle has evolved to deal with proper winter. Looking at meteorological data for Helsinki in the 2000s 13 years have been warmer than the average, while the remaining 3 have been extremely cold, several times colder than the average. Because of those 3 extremely cold winters the average temp has 'only' gone up by 0,5 celsius here in Helsinki but that's an absurdly high figure for less than 2 decades. This essentially means there are no 'normal' winters anymore, where we get a steady amount of snow throughout the winter, It's either bleakishly warm moist and dark, with little or no snow, or extremely fucking cold with 10s of centimeters of snow fucking up all transit and traffic.

      This is what climate science has predicted all along: increase in extreme weather on both ends of the scale, and it is most certainly seen - and felt. here. The meteorologists predict that if this keeps going, by the time I'm in my 50s southern Finland may see very little if any snowfall at all during the winter months, which is a dramatic shift for the environment as well as for the mental well being of people (snow coverage reflects light which offsets the darkness of the northern wintertime when we get nearly no sunlight. Without any snow, most of the daytime is essentially black as night during winter months, which leads to increased fatigue and depression).

      At the same time globally there are more storms, more flooding and in certain regions increased droughts.

      Like damn, it really takes a record amount of stupidity to look at the climate data now and proclaim the climate 'is the same', when people my age can already spot the difference with their own eyes.

      --
      "It is the business of the future to be dangerous" -Alfred North Whitehead
    3. Re: so... by Kiuas · · Score: 4, Informative

      Looking at meteorological data [ilmatieteenlaitos.fi] for Helsinki in the 2000s 13 years have been warmer than the average, while the remaining 3 have been extremely cold,

      I should clarify that the numbers I used were for winters only. If you look at averages for the entire year, the change is slightly less but still extremely noticeable considering the timeframe: 0,37 degrees warmer than the average.

      --
      "It is the business of the future to be dangerous" -Alfred North Whitehead
    4. Re: so... by thereitis · · Score: 2

      Species disappearing, species migrating north as the climate gets warmer, massive ice shelves breaking off. There's plenty of evidence out there if you take the time to look and listen.

  2. warming models wrong by phantomfive · · Score: 2, Insightful

    While we're on the topic, a new study just came outhttp://dailycaller.com/2017/06...">fully admitting the models are wrong. They've over-predicted the amount of warming we've seen, compared to reality. Here's a link to the paper.

    So it's reasonable to assume that the worst predictions from AGW are not going to happen.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    1. Re:warming models wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "Fully admitting the models are wrong" is curious - no, make that furious - way to spin that study.

      Models are made, data is gathered and compared with the model, models get refined. Welcome to science. That doesn't "admit the models are wrong", merely that there are variables - many of them, in this case - that we don't know with accuracy.

      This particular paper suggests - rather tentatively - that "model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations." That may or may not be correct, but it suggests one way in which the models could be refined.

      This is one of the basic tactics of disinformation: misrepresent a legitimate study, secure in the knowledge that everyone who agrees with your point of view will just believe you and not even click on your links (the first of which directs straight back to this page, by the way).

      "It's reasonable to assume that the worst predictions from AGW are not going to happen" - now, that is indeed arguable, because "the worst predictions" are made by, frankly, lunatics. Remember "The Day After Tomorrow"? Movie published by Fox (yes, that Fox)? That's not going to happen. There you go, you're vindicated. But still spreading disinformation.

    2. Re:warming models wrong by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "Fully admitting the models are wrong" is curious - no, make that furious - way to spin that study.

      Well, we can actually put a number on it, and in fact the paper does (if you'd actually read it, which you didn't), here is a quote from the paper:

      "The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty- first century results is low (between zero and about 9%)."

      So there it is. Fully quantified at 9% for your enjoyment.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:warming models wrong by Xyrus · · Score: 5, Informative

      You linked to the daily caller. You may as well just called up Scott Pruitt.

      Since you clearly don't understand how models work (any model), let me clue you in: They are all wrong. Every single one of them. There is no such thing as a perfect model. Never has been, never will be. It doesn't matter if you're talking about a model for a bridge or a model for the climate. Every single model has error bars, caveats, assumptions, etc., which is why models are used for GUIDANCE and not PREDICTION. The predictions are made from models, additional data, additional analysis, etc. from EXPERTS IN THE FIELD. Models are TOOLS, not the end all be all of scientific analysis.

      Now that we got that out of the way, the paper does not say anything about the models being completely wrong. The paper is examining several different aspects of potential sources that lead to temperatures increasing at a slightly slower rate than the models predicted over the past decade or so. The issues range from potential systemic biases in the data sets to various different aspects of internal variability that the models don't currently capture.

      At no point do they claim that the models "are completely wrong". Nor are any current results invalidated. This is a paper discussing possible improvements to the models and/or data analysis to improve overall predictions.

      You either didn't read the paper, or you need to really work on your reading comprehension.

      --
      ~X~
    4. Re:warming models wrong by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

      None other than the Father of AGW's name is one that paper, Michael Mann.

      Sorry, but not even Michael Mann gets to skip peer review.

      Why are you in such a hurry? The truth will come out. In the meantime, just relax, calm down, and have a cup of cocoa.

    5. Re:warming models wrong by BlueStrat · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So there it is. Fully quantified at 9% for your enjoyment.

      And ribbed for her pleasure?

      Sorry, couldn't resist such a wide-open straight-line. :D

      I've been saying the models have been unable to even relatively accurately recreate *past* climate changes with all the data available. What the hell makes anyone think using those models' predictions on future climate as the basis for making massive changes to society that *will* cost many, many lives is even sane, never mind being a 'good idea'?

      Humans do not yet have even a significant fraction of the computing power required to model the Earth's climate. It's a massively-chaotic system with more significant variables than we even know about to attempt to measure and include in said models. It would be a much simpler problem to predict the future individual movements of every single fish in the Great Lakes over the next century.

      This is all about ideologies, politics, agendas, money, and power. Science takes a distant back seat.

      Strat

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    6. Re: warming models wrong by KGIII · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yes and no. First, modeling a chaotic system is damned hard and is never going to give 100% accurate results. Second, if I am understanding properly, it may mean that it is going to be worse. Probably not, but maybe. Rember the first point, it's damned hard.

      I think it reasonable to assume they are good for broad predictions of trends and any very specific estimations are stupid. Yeah, climate is changing. No, we're probably not going to die as a direct result. We can crawl faster than the oceans will rise. We will adapt. It's what we do.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    7. Re: warming models wrong by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      We can crawl faster than the oceans will rise.

      Where are we going to crawl to?

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    8. Re:warming models wrong by dave420 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Unless you've been saying that in a peer-reviewed paper in a journal of good standing, it matters naught. As your last sentence demonstrates your respect for the scientific method, you might want to apply it to your own criticism of the findings. To not do so is incredibly hypocritical, and only serves to make you look like someone wishing their conclusions are correct, which I'm sure you're not.

    9. Re:warming models wrong by BlueStrat · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I've been saying the models have been unable to even relatively accurately recreate *past* climate changes with all the data available.

      Unless you've been saying that in a peer-reviewed paper in a journal of good standing, it matters naught. As your last sentence demonstrates your respect for the scientific method, you might want to apply it to your own criticism of the findings. To not do so is incredibly hypocritical, and only serves to make you look like someone wishing their conclusions are correct, which I'm sure you're not.

      Then I'm sure you can cite the climate models that accurately track past climate change without massive adjustments to the raw data.

      [crickets]

      Strat

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    10. Re: warming models wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Physicist here. Models are not wrong, but rather incomplete. A good physical model when simulating an experiment will account for >80% of a measurement's real value. That means when done right, errors come from 3rd and 4th order effects that are either not readily simulated or are seemingly random effects. If the climate models are this wrong, then they are incomplete and further study is warranted to increase accuracy of the monte carlo calculations, distributions feeding models, or partial differential equations representing the multiphysics. That doesn't mean ignore potential effects in the meantime.

    11. Re:warming models wrong by dcw3 · · Score: 2

      I'm all for science, but peer review is broken. This is one of many articles on the problem if you care to google.

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    12. Re:warming models wrong by dcw3 · · Score: 2

      Why do people continue to point to peer review as if it's functional. It's not, and there are plenty of articles pointing to the problems with it.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    13. Re:warming models wrong by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      You didn't even read the paper. It's not random forcings, the model takes into account volcanos. No one would write a paper saying, "Models are wrong because we had more volcanos than expected." This paper doesn't say that either, it says the problems are due to "systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations."

      Next time you should actually read the paper before replying.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    14. Re:warming models wrong by Shotgun · · Score: 2

      Hurricanes? What was it everybody was saying when the Congressman carried a snowball into the legislature? Ahh, yes!!

      "That's WEATHER, not CLIMATE, stupid!!"

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    15. Re:warming models wrong by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      You didn't even look at the link, did you?

      I've read enough realclimate.org to know it's just a blog, about as good as wattsupwiththat in quality.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  3. It All Makes Sense Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    So this is why liberals are always against climate change. A third of them could die from it!

    1. Re:It All Makes Sense Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeh because it not like the red states are parasites of the blue states, oh wait, they are.

    2. Re: It All Makes Sense Now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Fuck you blue states and your federal government, we red states don't need it. Well, we want it now, what with the hurricane, and maybe border wall money too - funny how it wasn't worth spending state money on, but fuck you to Sodom once the hurricane season is over, you hypocritical leeches!

    3. Re:It All Makes Sense Now by hyades1 · · Score: 2

      1. Holy crap there are many other sites that report exactly the same thing. That's because the numbers come from places like the Congressional Budget Office, which don't play politics with their numbers.

      2. It's actually pretty much exactly that simple. Time after time, the Blue States elect more liberal, more progressive governments than the Red States. They also contribute more to the country.

      3. A lot of those Red States are even more dependent on federal government support, especially for agriculture. And the numbers don't even include Red Staters who graze their cattle on public land and mine/drill in public parks.

      So the situation is likely even more lopsided than presented in the link. Red Staters are even more parasitical than that.

      --
      I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
  4. Re:Anyone who suggests you could do without x spec by tylersoze · · Score: 2

    I agree completely...except for mosquitos and cockroaches, fuck those guys.

  5. Re:Would you really miss... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I think people are worried that one of the parasites wiped out might be humans.

  6. Wu Tang Clan is nothing to fuck with by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

    One of the parasites has already disappeared:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/0...

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  7. Re:Would you really miss... by msauve · · Score: 5, Funny

    "Would you really miss any of them?"

    Sure. Tapeworms make great pets - they go where you go, eat what you eat, they're quiet, not messy, etc. Much less work than other pets.

    --
    "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
  8. Just an idea by xfizik · · Score: 3, Funny

    Does this include banksters, politicians and patent trolls?

  9. Re:Would you really miss... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Sure. Tapeworms make great pets - they go where you go, eat what you eat, they're quiet, not messy, etc.

    They can also help you lose weight. Some types of parasitic worms suppress the immune system, and can be used to treat autoimmune disorders, including Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, and asthma.

  10. Or.. with billions of individuals, they'll adapt. by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

    Fleas? I don't think so.

    Maybe specific fleas finely tuned to a particular animal.

    But fleas in general?

    My experience with climate change over the last 30 years is more bugs, more parasites, more diseases reaching in to my area from down south than used to.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  11. Why marked troll? by Roodvlees · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Are climate alarmists so afraid to have an actual discussion that they must denounce anyone who disagrees as a troll?

    --
    Thank you, Bradley Manning, Edward Snowden and so many others, for courageously defending humanity, my freedom and more!
  12. Re:Would you really miss... by jandersen · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Good joke, of course, but more seriously, we shouldn't be too dismissive of the role played by any major part of the ecosystems, when we don't fully understand the situation. Just as a rather well reported example, there are several indications that the rise in allergies may have a lot to do with the elimination of internal parasites.

  13. Mosquitos are nearly useless by ThatNakedGuy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Mosquitoes do not make up a substantial part of any creatures diet. Even bats do not depend on mosquitoes. Bats eat beetles, wasps, and moths. Mosquitoes make up less than 1 percent of their total diet.
    Studies of areas where mosquitoes have been eliminated show no major ecological disruption. They are seasonal anyway. Mosquitoes (at least the ones that harm us) are a blight on the world and should be eliminated.

    1. Re:Mosquitos are nearly useless by CaptainDork · · Score: 2

      Studies of areas where mosquitoes have been eliminated show no major ecological disruption.

      Citation, please. Please be prepared to discuss bee and other insect populations.

      --
      It little behooves the best of us to comment on the rest of us.