Slashdot Mirror
Is the World Ready For Flying Cars? (engadget.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report from TechCrunch, adding: "Is the world ready for flying cars? Sebastian Thrun, the supposed godfather of autonomous driving, and several other tech investors seem to think so." From the report: At TechCrunch Disrupt SF 2017, Thrun talked a lot about flying cars and how that was the future of transportation. So did GGV's Jenny Lee, a prolific investor in China. And so did Steve Jurvetson, one of the original investors in SpaceX. The technical backbone for flying cars seems to be there already -- with drones becoming ever-present and advancements in AI and self-driving cars -- but the time is coming soon that flying cars will be the primary mode of transportation. "I can't envision a future of highways [and being] stuck in cars," Thrun said. "I envision a [future] where you hop in a thing, go in the air, and fly in a straight line. I envision a future where Amazon delivers my food in the air in five minutes. The air is so free of stuff and is so unused compared to the ground, it has to happen in my opinion."
Cars today are forced to move on a two-dimensional plane (ramps, clover intersections and tunnels set aside), and while self-driving cars would make it easier for cars to talk to each other and move more efficiently, adding a third dimension to travel would make a lot of sense coming next. Thrun pointed to airplane transit, which is already a "fundamentally great mass transit system." Jurvetson said he was actually about to ride in a flying car before he "watched it flip over" before arriving to talk about some of the next steps in technology onstage. So, there's work to be done there, but it does certainly seem that all eyes are on flying cars. And that'll be enabled by autonomous driving, which will probably allow flying cars to figure out the most efficient paths from one point to the next without crashing into each other. Lee said that China is closely analyzing changes in transportation, which might end up leading to flying cars. "I do want to highlight that there's going to be huge disruption within the transportation ecosystem in China," Lee said. "Cars going from diesel to electric. China has about 200 million install base of car ownership. In 2016, only 1 million cars are electric. The Chinese government hopes to install 5 million parking lots that are electric... Even the Chinese OEMs are buying into flying taxis."
Cars today are forced to move on a two-dimensional plane (ramps, clover intersections and tunnels set aside), and while self-driving cars would make it easier for cars to talk to each other and move more efficiently, adding a third dimension to travel would make a lot of sense coming next. Thrun pointed to airplane transit, which is already a "fundamentally great mass transit system." Jurvetson said he was actually about to ride in a flying car before he "watched it flip over" before arriving to talk about some of the next steps in technology onstage. So, there's work to be done there, but it does certainly seem that all eyes are on flying cars. And that'll be enabled by autonomous driving, which will probably allow flying cars to figure out the most efficient paths from one point to the next without crashing into each other. Lee said that China is closely analyzing changes in transportation, which might end up leading to flying cars. "I do want to highlight that there's going to be huge disruption within the transportation ecosystem in China," Lee said. "Cars going from diesel to electric. China has about 200 million install base of car ownership. In 2016, only 1 million cars are electric. The Chinese government hopes to install 5 million parking lots that are electric... Even the Chinese OEMs are buying into flying taxis."
No.
Have you seen the way people drive in only two dimensions?
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
Is this the tech VC's version of the 7 Minute Abs pitch? "Why would anyone travel in two dimensions when they can travel in three?"
It's a little more complicated than that. Here are some things that don't matter so much in 2D road travel but matter a lot when you're flying
* wind, winds changing at higher altitudes, and wind shear
* Air speed vs ground speed
* Heading vs ground track
* Convective weather (at takeoff, all along path of travel, and at destination)
* Air density (at takeoff, all along path of travel, and at destination)
* Vehicle weight for takeoff and travel, and weight changes as fuel burns
* Lift characteristics at altitude (at takeoff, all along path of travel, and at destination)
* Ability to descend safely if a system fails (single engine?) or you are crashed into
* Empty gas tank doesn't fail gracefully
* Inability to stop moving (probably)
* Obstacles (hills, mountains, towers, buildings
* Etc
As someone who flies, I am (a) certain there will be some sort of flying vehicle some day, and (b) aware there is a lot to figure out. These are all obviously solvable problems because people already do fly. It's just hugely expensive and requires a lot of training (relative to driving). What we are talking about here is ModelT-izing flight which will require a lot of idiot proofing including expensive redundancy while at the same time really driving down the purchase and operational costs of flying. These are not small problems, and these problems are not analogous to the problems of autonomous driving.
If I were writing a science fiction story, I wouldn't include flying cars as an element.
Rather, I'd just make 'travel pods' - comfortable compact living quarters equipped with entertainment/work surfaces, storage, and seats that convert smoothly into beds - all within a strict volume/weight, all in a small geo-stabilized shock mount.
All transportation would take these pods. Cars, helicopters, boats, spacecraft, and essentially everything else. Most of these vehicles would be somewhat crude-looking frameworks compared to our current fashionable vehicles - but few would care, as the method of getting there are just details, and not the important part, very few would put any status into it.
Going from New York to a rural town outside of Hong Kong might involve a few cars, a ferry, an ocean freighter, then a small freight helecopter (large drone-like thing) to get you to the exact house, which the passenger would rarely care about. The cost would be something similar to what we'd consider an Amazon shipping expense, regardless of the number of legs, and time roughly scales with distance.
The biggest concern of folks traveling this way would be time taken and menu selection. All transport units would have a somewhat extensive set of diagnostic tools, with an occasional scandal for any company suspected of skirting the rather heavy regulations put on those, or in any way skirting safety mores. The failure on a redundant pod mounting arm would actually make the news, as would anything even close to death of a passenger.
This is my guess of something closer to the actual future, based on existing trends. Folks desire focus on the things they care about, and transportation isn't as sexy as it was. They want to get there cheap, and not care about the details. Our taste for safety should also go up over time, and the whole thing deserves a bit of a push towards automation and commoditization. .
I certainly wouldn't be sad to see our current commercial car companies/insurance going away, in favor of industrial economy-scale vehicles built to better use every resource.
Lots of stories you could make with that concept too - from Asimov Caves of Steel-style stories with murder sub-plots, to stories of how prisons would work in such a culture.
Ryan Fenton
I really hope Apple makes the first flying cars. I've given it a lot of thought. The same people who bought Apple Watches will buy the flying cars. It'll be glorious. It could solve the housing shortage on the West Coast.
You are welcome on my lawn.
No the world isn't ready for flying cars, the energy use is too great. We need to reduce fossil fuel usage not increase it. And whilst short plane flights with batteries is possible, it's just not practical enough to become a significant market. VTOL with batteries is even less practical.
If it is personal transportation, and it flies from point A to point B, where neither A nor B is an airport, then it is a flying car.
And not a helicopter.