Slashdot Mirror
AMD, Which Lost Over $2.8 Billion In 5 Years, Takes a Hit After New Report (arstechnica.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: On Monday, AMD's stock price plunged nearly 9 percent after a report by Morgan Stanley, a major investment bank, which found that "microprocessor momentum" has slowed. According to CNBC, a new report by analyst Joseph Moore found that "cryptocurrency mining driven sales for AMD's graphics chips will decline by 50 percent next year or a $250 million decline in revenue. He also forecasts video game console demand will decline by 5.5 percent in 2018." As per AMD's own SEC filings, the company lost over $2.8 billion from 2012 through 2016. However, new releases from AMD suggest that it may be on something of a resurgent track. As Ars reported last month, AMD's Ryzen and Threadripper processors re-established AMD's chips as competitive with Intel's.
I'm terrible at picking stocks. But I'd say buy now.
AMD had a fantastic Q3 and predicted a slower Q4 (as expected), and the stock has fallen a ton in the past few days. It really makes no sense.
AMD also has fantastic products out now with more to come.
Is this the new Moore's Law?
-=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
INTEL doesn't want to license IBM's technology, so INTEL would rather let the patents expire.
Both AMD and Intel dropped the ball on getting x86 onto smartphones, despite the benefits in compatibility between desktops and phones it could have provided. It certainly would have been possible.
Desktops and laptops are still going to remain the top end of the market, and the choice for doing real work, also gaming, since the form factor allows for expansion and ventilation to support more powerful systems. We are still far away from being able to have the CPU power for real, lifelike gaming, such as real time ray tracing. So there is plenty to drive the need for faster CPUs. Desktop systems should still be for people who want a lot of expansion including a larger case, this is the niche it can fill. The idea that by offering compact desktop cases sort of runs against why someone would want a desktop system and weakens what differentiates it from a laptop. Why buy a compact desktop system when it offers no expansion advantage over a laptop? I see many manufacturers offering compact desktop systems, when really I doubt it will help.
Mobile and desktop systems really fill two different market niches so its a mistaken idea that the mobile can replace a desktop system. Working on a spreadsheet or taxes on a 3" screen? No thanks.
... (who's own stocks are surging up, and at 52-week-high)
slide under the table for this bad-for-the-competition "report"?
the last two items, intel is *not* a player in *at all*, remember.
Many are migrating to RISC-V for low power and high supercomputing.
The market for AMD GPUs for mining may perhaps dry out, because, just as so many cryptocurrencies since BitCoin, the arms race make it move from CPU->GPU->FPGA->ASICs ...
Also, in some other cryptocurrencies, were the dominant factor is memory size, at some point you need to go from unisocket home rigs to multisocket server rigs, to thaurus interconnects...
That means that, for any new cryptocurrency, once it explodes, it moves from small time miners to Industrial/Profesional setups.
What is expected is that this will happen to Etherium in the next year.
Having said that, I do think that the report from the pirate working at Morgan S is just greatly exagerated... IMHO
1.) There is pent up demand from gamers for AMD Graphics chips, that may, more or less, offset the decrease in demand for mining.
2.) New cryptocurrencies flourish everywhere, and the GPUs will be able to mine (for a while) the newer ones, so, while demand from mining will ebb and flow, will not simply dry-out.
3.) Even if the X-86 microprocesor market as a whole shrinks, that does not mean that Zen related products can not grow, specially since those offer a better performance/$ (performance/$/watt, which is relevant in big datacenters and laptops, is a more diffcult thing to meassure).
The only thing on which I kinda-sorta agree, is that demands for consoles with AMD chips will slow down a little... I can not foresee many people changing their Xbox-one for an XBox-One-X (scorpio) or changing their PS4 for a PS4+... And now the switch makes nintendo sligtly more competitive than in the Wii-U times...
Am I bullish on AMD? No? But that does not mean they can not do well. And I hope they do well.
*** Suerte a todos y Feliz dia!
the report is a slowdown in processor sales. That would be everybody who sells processors, wouldn't it? Yeah, yeah, AMD's worse off than Intel (they're not as evil^x business savvy). But it's not like the console biz is slowing down.
Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
the crypto-currency boom to last. AMD will be fine. Ryzen's solid and Vega's a big improvement. They're likely to own consoles for the next few generations (minus the switch since they don't have a low end mobile part like nVidia).
Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
Someone want to catch the Raven ridge train, so it's knocking down AMD a few notches to buy stock.
where are the ThreadRipper ipmi boards?
1p EPYC may be a bit to much much less 2P EPYC (unless you want only 1-2 nodes) and less cores but higher clock ThreadRipper are would work good + 128 pci-e is to much unless you want a big PCI-e storage node and even then where are the 1P Epyc boards???
For stuff like CEPH you want muilt nodes so you can update and reboot without down time for the cluster. For hosting VM's you need the room to unload a server update and reboot it with out downing VM's.
Why would a investment bank release a report on crypto mining going down 50% in next year? Is it because their investors are asking "why the $%@! Have we not gotten just 1% of the 50,000%+ gains in cryptoland?" I'm sure its just a fad right, right? Like you've been saying for .....8+ years now? Or is it that these investment banks feel threatened by crypto because crypto is decentralized and cuts THEM out of the power loop. Keep spreading your FUD....I have gotten pretty good returns doing the EXACT opposite of what these investment "gurus" have been shouting.
Intel stuff is a bunch of crap when it comes to slim laptops/tablet/phones. If AMD can come up with something capable of playing an average modern game or straming a 4K video, that would be very cool.
Crypto currency may last, but mining on GPU's will not. GPU mining died long ago for bitcoin and it's death is imminent for Etherium as well, this will crash the AMD GPU market.
What these people don't understand is that the PC/laptop market dropped due to a lack of innovation by Intel in the years where AMD was not competitive. How many people with a second generation i7 saw no reason to upgrade until this year? AMD Ryzen came out in March, and for the first time in a VERY long time, AMD was fully competitive again, to the point where Intel started to flail around and try to figure out how to respond. The results are that people are responding to the shift in the industry and are looking to upgrade their computers, not because their old one has died, but because there is actually an improvement. Those with dual-core processors are finally moving up to quad-core Ryzen or Intel chips, those with quad-core processors are upgrading to six or eight core processors, and we are seeing a surge in advertising for the new chips from both AMD and Intel.
In addition to this, the AMD Raven Ridge laptop processors also look VERY promising, 15 watt quad-core laptop processors that may very well beat Intel chips, so all those "Ultrabooks" will now have real competition from AMD based systems that are just as thin and light, with good battery life. There will also be laptops with these chips running at up to 25 watts for even better performance due to better cooling, even if the laptops are not as thin.
As far as cryptocurrency, the demand for video cards never ends, with many people not able to buy their video card of choice due to supply shortages. If there was no cryptocurrency mining, these cards would have sold out at launch ANYWAY.
Why is this allowed? They're clearly trying to manipulate prices and they're obviously invested in mining cryptocurrency on top of that. Everything mentioned in the summary is false in order to drive the market in a direction beneficial to them. Everything Morgan Stanley stated in their "report" is bullshit opinion, how is that acceptable when stated as facts?
1. AMD has returned to profit and is reinvesting to continue momentum.
2. AMD currently has the edge in multi-threaded workloads which is the future.
3. AMD have release their ZEN/Vega APU that performs well compared to intel but at much lower TDP
4. The crypto market IS JUST STARTING if you look at how we are edging closer to bitcoin ETF and market regulation allowing major international players to enter the market this will be obvious.
5. AMD lost BILLIONS due to Intel's anti-competitive practices back from when the 1.2Ghz Thunderbird (c variant) was demolishing anything intel had. Even 1.8Ghz P4s - this is a point because AMD has not lost money due to poor management but rather due to intel bribing OEMs not to sell AMD.
6. AMD has semi-custom designed and a new generation of consoles is just around the corner. While console sales decline for old hardware because everyone is waiting for something faster they will pick up AND currently all major platforms run AMD designs. - assuming consoles suddenly die a horrible death AMD still has a great PC business.
7. The future. We cannot know it for sure but if the past is any indication it is likely that the next "must have" game or application that needs more cores, more shaders and more everything than ever before is soon upon us. -my bet is on the next generation VR that will necessitate the hardware to push 4/8/16k res PER eye at 10bit colour and so on.
So you know what? Fuck Morgan Stanley. While it does not play on whether this is right/wrong but as an aside this is the same FAILED INVESTMENT BANK that got $107 BILLION from the Federal Reserve.
We remember all the banks getting a free ride on public funds. It's just one of the many reasons people like crypto.
A 'singular oddity' is an event that cannot be explained and only happens when you are alone.
If you had to starve for the last years, and suddenly cash is rushing in, are you going to build up your body into a healthy state again, or are you rushing out to blow it all on hookers and booze?
No, you're stuffing your face, and getting all that tasty shit you couldn't afford. Like freshly pressed juice from, the most glorious steak you can find, and all that stuff that makes you feel wholesome and healthy again.
And then you sleep to let the body build itself up.
So you can jump up the next day, go out in the sun, and rule the world!
Trust me, I have something like this every 1st of the month. (Like right now.)
But of course, investors are vultures who can't think further than the length of their own noses, and such morons that they would rather take a dollar now, than 5 million dollars tomorrow.
Hands down Ryzen and Epyc are the best chips out there. ThreadRipper is just astonishing.
It will rise and fall because people think it will rise and fall. So people should think it will rise or fall when people think it should rise or fall. --.--
What we want to know, is what the original initial triggers were, that made them think that!
That is what is actually important.
Of course, the stock market is criminal insanity by definition, and it should be punishable by death (through drowning in gold) to even ponder its existence, let alone trying to actually make it a real existing thing. So discussing this is like discussing the best oil lamp design in the time of quantum dot LEDs.
I really wonder who invests in a company that has those kind of losses...
Could it be artificially maintained alive to avoid Intel becoming a quasi-monopoly and therefore the target of anti-trust investigations ?
Or is it just accounting trickery to avoid paying taxes in the US while the real profits are safely hidden away in a tax-haven ?
My view is that as long as Intel has an advantage on low-power consumption CPUs, nothing can touch it as long as it maintains
parity in processing benchmarks even at slightly higher prices.