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We May Not Have Enough Minerals To Even Meet Electric Car Demand (jalopnik.com)

Citing two reports from Reuters and Bloomberg, Jalopnik reports on the scarcity of metals necessary for electric cars. From the report: [W]hile demand for nickel keeps increasing, half the world's nickel supply is too low in quality to use for car batteries. All of which is going to have seismic effect on the world's suppliers. In short: There will be winners and losers, and the winners will be the ones with the highest-grade stuff -- not unlike, I suppose, the illicit drugs market. "Some of the biggest producers of the higher-grade ores, including BHP Norilsk Nickel, Vale and Sumitomo Corp, are moving quickly to take advantage and seal long-term supply deals with battery producers," reports Reuters. "Among those losing out would be lower-grade nickel mines like Cerro Matoso in Columbia, owned by South32 Ltd and Glencore's Koniambo in New Caledonia, as well as Anglo American's mines in Brazil producing ferronickel."

What of cobalt? Bloomberg sent a writer and photographer to Cobalt, Ontario, about 300 miles north of Toronto, to find out. The town, which began life as a silver town, also is believed to have some cobalt, though no one's really found much yet. The search for a new source of cobalt isn't taking place in just Cobalt, Ontario, of course, as mining companies worldwide try to capitalize on the our electric car future. But the search is ramping up as the world's biggest source of cobalt -- the Democratic Republic of Congo, where about half of all cobalt comes from -- is increasingly unstable, making car manufacturers nervous and cobalt all the more valuable.

14 of 341 comments (clear)

  1. Minerals? by arth1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    These aren't minerals, but elements.
    The ore which they elements may be extracted from are minerals - several different kinds, none of which are mentioned in TFS.

    The elements themselves are not rare. It''s just a matter of paying for the extraction. It won't make batteries hard to find, just expensive.

    1. Re:Minerals? by thesupraman · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If you can find a mine that produces any of these in pure elemental form, then I suggest you lay claim and get rich damn quick.

      Until that time, I suggest that what comes out of mines are minerals, and from those we extract purer forms, which can approach elemental purity at times, depending on requirements. This article is about the mines, so you are simply being a pedant, sorry.

      ' It''s just a matter of paying for the extraction. It won't make batteries hard to find, just expensive.'
      You think that is a useful comment? Hell, Seawater contains all of those elements! we could just extract from that!.
      Good mineral sources have order*S* of magnitude more economic value than 'an element is common' implies, as I am sure you are aware.

      The town of cobalt however is an odd inclusion - I suggest Bloombergs researcher needs up to strung up for that one.

    2. Re:Minerals? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Neither nickel nor cobalt is needed for lithium batteries. Tesla batteries contain both, but the Nissan Leaf uses manganese instead, and there are billions of tonnes of manganese reserves.

      We will likely find both better ways to extract ore, and better ways to build batteries. Just ask Paul Ehrlich about betting against human ingenuity.

    3. Re:Minerals? by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      It's worse than that; neither of Jalopnik's "sources" make the claim that "We May Not Have Enough Minerals To Even Meet Electric Car Demand". Both of the sources are very upbeat about the market prospects, yet Jalopnik (which has long had an anti-EV lean, and particularly anti-Tesla) turns it into a doom story.

      More to the point, the sources say just the opposite of what Jalopnik is claiming. To not put too fine of a point on it:

      UBS estimates that 15 million electric vehicles will be on the road by 2025, lifting nickel demand by 300,000-900,000 tonnes, or by 10-40 percent of the current market.

      Got that? In 7 years, nickel supply only needs to grow by 10-40%. Which is nothing. I mean, great if you're a nickel mining company, but not exactly the plot of a post-apocalyptic movie.

      The Bloomberg article about cobalt, by contrast, was about how the rise in cobalt demand is bringing life back into a dying town. A feel-good story about the current market which, again, Jalopnik turned into doom.

      Here's the basic fact: cobalt is found pretty much everywhere nickel and copper are. In most places, they don't bother to recover it because the market demand hasn't been high enough; it just gets thrown out in the tailings. As the demand and price rise (and EVs manufacturers can easily outspend almost all other demand sources for cobalt, because that ~15% in their cathodes makes so much of a difference), the only thing that has to happen is the addition of more recovery processes to existing copper and nickel mines. Most cobalt today comes from the Congo because their nickel-copper ores have the highest cobalt fractions (although contrary to popular myth, under 20% of the Congo's cobalt comes from "artisinal" mines; most come from big mines from international firms which use modern equipment and processes). But nickel-copper ores pretty much anywhere else on Earth can also recover cobalt, and will to whatever extent is needed to meet demand (in addition to the new demand launching a new wave of cobalt exploration, like that which is happening near the town of Cobalt).

      How price sensitive are li-ion batteries to cobalt? Let's ignore, as ShanghaiBill mentioned, that there are entire chemistries that use no cobalt. Tesla's batteries have 0,22kg per kWh. Cobalt costs $60/kg (and this is during a time when speculators are trying to snatch up supply, so there's been a price spike). So that's $13,2 per kWh. Tesla's batteries currently cost about $180 per kWh; their primary goal is to get batteries down to $100/kWh. So although cobalt is the rarest element that goes into their batteries, it's still not that expensive of a component compared to what they can sell the batteries for.

      --
      The human body can be drained of blood in 8.6 seconds given adequate vacuuming systems.
    4. Re:Minerals? by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's Jalopnik's spin. Which is not at all what it says in the Reuters source. The Reuters source says nothing about difficulty to match the (rather meager) 10-40% growth in nickel output required by 2025. It says that only half of nickel producers will be able to cash in on it.

      Heck, the article actually has the opposite tone to Jalopnik's spin: it's full of discussion of nickel miners with mines shutdown or about to go bankrupt due to insufficient demand / too low market price, hoping that the increased demand for nickel from battery manufacturers will allow them to stay open / reopen closed mines.

      Within a few weeks, BHP unveiled plans to retool its Nickel West division to start shipping nickel to battery manufacturers beginning in April 2019.

      The announcement marked a turnaround for Nickel West, which two years ago was in its death throes, with its workforce of 2,000 told that their jobs would end in 2019.

      Eduard Haegel, division chief of Nickel West, expects demand for electric vehicle batteries to account for about 90 percent of the division’s annual output of 100,000 tonnes within the next six years.

      Meanwhile, Vale is looking for a partner in its loss-making New Caledonia nickel complex. It has been in talks with the Chinese battery maker GEM Co, the Financial Times reported.

      “If we are not successful, we’ll have to face the reality, which is this operation is holding the company back,” Luciano Siani Pires, Vale’s chief financial officer, said, referring to the New Caledonian business.

      Plants already shut may get a second chance, too.

      Two with shots at restarting are Brazil’s Votorantim Metais, and First Quantum Minerals’s Ravensthorpe in Australia, which at today’s nickel prices cannot compete but could be profitable if the market continues to climb.

      Par for the course for Jalopnik, mind you.

      --
      The human body can be drained of blood in 8.6 seconds given adequate vacuuming systems.
    5. Re:Minerals? by MachineShedFred · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Because mineral extraction companies don't go looking for rights for new sources until their existing ones are exhausted? It's common to have sourcing years worth of supply ready to go - just purchase the equipment and hire people to operate it. This plays into the old trope of "there is only 50 years worth of known Uranium reserves!" - that's not because there is only 50 years worth in the Earth, it's because they stopped surveying when they had 50 years worth of uranium at current usage rates, because it's not useful to find 100 years worth and keep it in a filing cabinet for 50 years.

      When the known sources even remotely dwindle, they send out the geologists. And look! More sources! Because Nickel and Cobalt are really common, to the point where Cobalt is often treated as a waste product from extracting other minerals it is found with.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    6. Re:Minerals? by Ramze · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'm not sure how to parse your word-salad.

      You do know that cars today are made mostly from aluminum -- which is almost 100% recycled. There's steel in there, too... which is also almost 100% recycled. EVs are currently dependent on Lithium Ion batteries. Pretty much every electronics store not only has a recycle bin for mobile electronics, but encourages you to use it, too. Why? Well, sometimes they're legally required to... but Lithium Ion battery recycling is the best thing since sliced bread to manufacturers who use them in their products. Ever crack open one of those iPhones or Samsung Galaxies? Most of what's inside by mass is the Lithium Ion battery. Recycling them isn't difficult. Do you have any idea how much cheaper it is to just re-use aluminum, steel, and lithium rather than dig it out of the ground as a raw material to refine?!?!?

      Teslas aren't made to be replaced every 3 years... most electronics aren't -- just phones and tablets as they evolved quickly... and they're just now starting to extend their expected lifespans. Computers used to be the same -- new every 2 years for every business... then every 3... then every 5... now, lots of places have 7 or even 10 year old PCs running Windows 10 just fine. The TREND is the opposite of what you describe. New technologies evolve fast, older ones tend to stagnate and flatten out growth curves and create longer-lasting products.

      Teslas have fewer moving parts and fewer parts that need maintenance, so your basic gasoline powered car has more throw-away parts. The Tesla's biggest expense and liability is its lithium ion battery packs... which they're improving & by entering the Li Ion battery business, they have a stake in improving the batteries and lowering their costs -- which will include recycling the lithium from the old batteries eventually as well. There's no reason a Tesla couldn't run for decades just fine with only swapping out older battery packs to be recycled and replaced with new battery packs.

        Further, the USA has barely scratched the surface of its mineral resources. We have confirmed rare-earth metals and lithium deposits we aren't touching -- because China is mining away just fine for cheaper than it'd be worth for us to bother... especially considering the environmental impact of mining in our own back yards. There is no shortage and no future shortage in sight -- just corporations staking claims to get the largest control over the current sources of raw materials... which is no different than any other time in history. If and when it becomes worthwhile, we'll dig for our own and make our own refineries.... but, more likely, we'll recycle what we have first -- just like with aluminum and steel... and to a lesser degree, copper and other precious metals. We do mostly send our electronics recycling (other than lithium) to China... where they use a nasty process to extract gold, palladium, platinum, and other precious or rare earth metals from motherboards. It's become more profitable to get some of those metals from electronics than from raw ore in mines already, too.

  2. Yeah, in the 70's we were running out of oil, too by rmdingler · · Score: 4, Insightful
    I know, I know, an odd parallel, but bear with me.

    We simply developed improved technology to recover and refine the oil that was left between the mantle and the surface, and future generations of humans may discover recoverable quantities of petroleum products in the mantle.

    All we know for sure, is that the earth's most intelligent species is ever more clever in a crisis.

    Short supplies of nickel and rare earth metals? Increased profit margins for successful innovation? We'll be roping asteroids at some future price point.

    --
    Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

    Ernest Hemingway

  3. Any other users of nickel? by shess · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I guess they expect that the groups mining the high-quality nickel will serve the battery industry *and* all other nickel-using industries? Because that seems dumb, like even a middle-schooler could probably figure out that the high-end nickel will go to expensive high-end uses, and the prices of low-end nickel will rise because the high-end nickel is no longer available for low-end uses.

    But that's just me, I'm some weirdo who doesn't even feel the need to tie nickel prices to illicit drugs for a headline.

  4. Alarmist bullshit. by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 5, Insightful

    half the world’s nickel supply is too low in quality to use for car batteries.

    1. There is plenty of nickel in the planet's crust.
    2. Since nickel is an element, it can be refined into pure nickel with the application of chemistry.
    3. All the elements in batteries can be extracted and reused, it's just a matter of chemistry.

    Consider aluminum for a moment: despite being extremely abundant, it's rarely found in it's elemental state (which is why it used to be valued more than gold). Then we figured out how to extract it and now it's dirt cheap.

    This is just click-bait alarmist bullshit.

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
  5. All carbon batteries are on the way by ka9dgx · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Robert Murray-Smith has an interesting Youtube channel where he's doing all sorts of amazing things with graphene and other forms of carbon, including building an all carbon battery.
    We might not need any metal (not even for the plates) in a few years time.

  6. Re:Yeah, in the 70's we were running out of oil, t by darkain · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Now if only battery manufacturers would think of this now and start building rockets and planning longer ranged space missions...

  7. Re:Batteries are a bridge by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

    Except that they don't take an evening to charge. The Model 3, for example, charges at about 420 mph in the bottom half of its SoC on Tesla superchargers. And according to EPA docs it's capable of taking up to 525A, which is more like 700-800mph peak.

    Yes, they take an evening to charge at home, but what does that matter? You take ten seconds to plug in, and then you don't think any more about it; your car is full the next morning.

    As for weight: the Model 3 SR is slightly lighter than average for its class. The LR is heavier than average but far from the heaviest. Either way, there's nothing excessively heavy about them.

    --
    The human body can be drained of blood in 8.6 seconds given adequate vacuuming systems.
  8. Re:Batteries are a bridge by cheesybagel · · Score: 4, Informative

    Hydrogen fuel cell cars are a boondoggle. You just need to read about it to know why it makes no fucking sense at all. Last I heard they weren't selling the Honda Clarity FCV to anyone, it's fricking expensive, they only rent it for experimental purposes to collect the user data.

    The technology the Honda Clarity FCT uses IIRC is basically compressed hydrogen gas storage in a composite wrapped tank, and a PEM fuel cell (which is made with platinum). The platinum content alone makes the car outrageously expensive to manufacture.

    You might say: "But cheesy, there are other fuel cell technologies." Sure. there are SOFC fuel cells, great for stationary applications, on a car they run too hot and are too brittle. Or Molten Carbonate fuel cells. Also terrific for stationary applications, but require minutes to heat up before they even generate power. It's a boondoggle. I won't even mention the hydrogen gas storage and transportation issues because, well, I don't feel like it. You can read about it in the web.