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Upsurge in Big Earthquakes Predicted for 2018 (theguardian.com)
hcs_$reboot writes:
"Scientists say the number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth's rotation," reports the Guardian. "They believe variations in the speed of Earth's rotation could trigger intense seismic activity, particularly in heavily populated tropical regions. Although such fluctuations in rotation are small -- changing the length of the day by a millisecond -- they could still be implicated in the release of vast amounts of underground energy, it is argued."
The theory goes that the slowdown creates a shift in the shape of the Earth's solid iron and nickel "inner core" which, in turn, impacts the liquid outer core on which the tectonic plates that form the Earth's crust rest. The impact is greater on the tectonic plates near some of the Earth's most populous regions along the Equator, home to about a billion people. Scientists from the University of Colorado looked at all earthquakes registering 7 and up on the Richter scale since the turn of the 20th century. In this timeframe, the researchers discovered five periods of significantly greater seismic activity.
The seismic activity follows a five-year period of slowing in the earth's rotatio, and "This link is particularly important because Earth's rotation began one of its periodic slowdowns more than four years ago," according to the article.
"The Earth is offering us a five-year heads-up on future earthquakes," says one of the researchers, adding "The inference is clear. Next year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes."
The theory goes that the slowdown creates a shift in the shape of the Earth's solid iron and nickel "inner core" which, in turn, impacts the liquid outer core on which the tectonic plates that form the Earth's crust rest. The impact is greater on the tectonic plates near some of the Earth's most populous regions along the Equator, home to about a billion people. Scientists from the University of Colorado looked at all earthquakes registering 7 and up on the Richter scale since the turn of the 20th century. In this timeframe, the researchers discovered five periods of significantly greater seismic activity.
The seismic activity follows a five-year period of slowing in the earth's rotatio, and "This link is particularly important because Earth's rotation began one of its periodic slowdowns more than four years ago," according to the article.
"The Earth is offering us a five-year heads-up on future earthquakes," says one of the researchers, adding "The inference is clear. Next year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes."
.... we start claiming we can predict earthquakes like we claim to be able to predict the weather or the climate?
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
Dare to hope.
Great. I can expect next year to be filled with "Global Warming Causes Earthquakes!" stories. Yay.
Who do we have to give money to this time?
There should be a law that requires scientists to say every time before they open their mouths:
âoeWell, we think this... but weâ(TM)re not really sure. In fact, no oneâ(TM)s really sure.â
You know, except for obvious stuff like gravity etc.
To whomever is in charge of the infrastructure in the regions to be impacted. Wouldn't it be nice to spend money to mitigate the casualties instead of spending it on relief after the fact?
Thanks a lot, Trump.
You are welcome on my lawn.
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Your parent clearly believes this is Fake Science. He wants to know who funded this study because he wants to identity the sinister globalists, anarcho-feminists, crypto-Marxists, SJWs, eco-terrorists or, I don't know... hipsters. Or something.
"The theory goes that the slowdown creates a shift in the shape of the Earth's solid iron and nickel "inner core"
There was a really great documentary about the Earth's core not only slowing down, but stopping altogether:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0298814/combined/
This earth rotation issue was never a problem back when I was a kid. I blame the rise in jogging, specifically those joggers who jog eastward. If the joggers would just get together and only jog westward, the problem would be solved!
Have you tried turning it off and on again?
So, is the mantle or the core pulsating due to gravitational effects or thermal circulation? It's a slightly dirty thought.
Just say crap and if it happens you can claim to be "Right."
If it doesn't people tend to forget.
No downside either you are either a genius or people forget what you said.
Did you do the calculations for that ?
At least NASA has done those, according to Business Insider.
Effect from the dam filling to the rotation time seems to be just 0,06 microseconds.
This is the kind of prediction you don't really want to be correct about. Would have liked to see some more technical explanation, but from a little googling I see there is a 32 year cycle of slowing which the scientists think might be due to mantle and crust sticking together more, which would also mess up the magnetic field a bit. I had no idea this was a thing. There are various other causes according to wikipedia apparently such as the Indian ocean earthquake which redistributed mass. So I wonder whether there would be any impact from water that melts from arctic ice. People living at the intersection of tectonic plates tend to think about this stuff.
Two links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
https://qz.com/1133304/as-eart...
Man made global warming to be exact. It HAS to be man's fault...that's what Algore says.
slowing in the earth's rotatio
Rotation ratio?
Rotation potato?
Rotisserie potato?
A simple typo, and a good 5 minutes of day lost ;-)
Good choice of weasel words for non-peer-reviewed bullshit. Is this what /. has come to?
I am Audience.
But the sun can slow down.
You space monkeys believe the Earth's rotation just moves up and down however it likes? You're just might be monkey!
Space is fake. The Earth is flat. The eclipses prove it.
Solar Eclipse: https://vimeo.com/230976895
Light of the corona and chromosphere can be observed on the back of the moon. Corona lines move faster than speed of light.
Lunar Eclipse: https://vimeo.com/92378881
Shadow changes color?
Next eclipse: January 30-31, 2018 North America
Get a hand cranked, solar powered radio/flashlight/iPhone charger for when the Earth goes sideways..
Time to buy ocean front property in Idaho!
They updated the predictions for 2018 because the ones for 2017 did not happen. In fact, most meteorological and geographical predictions are no more than Wild Ass Guesses and a desire to see one's ideas in print. Do not forget that New York and Florida were predicted to be under water by 2010, and last year was to have seen wild runaway inflation. If enough people predict enough things then by chance some will come to pass. Although in many alarmist news predictions dealing with climate, volcanoes and earthquakes, very few have come to pass. Kind of like the preachers who foretell the end of the world and then, when it did not end, confidently predict a future date again. In 40 million years they may eventually be correct.
More quake activity just after a *relative* slowdown in the past. There has just been a relative slowdown, somthere may more quakes.
Causation and mechanisms are speculations.
You need to distinguish between the past and the future.
The earth's rotation speed is precisely measurable (e.g. relative to distant stars/galaxies) and has been measured precisely for many decades. So regular slow-down, speed-up cycles in Earth's rotation speed in the past would not be speculated but rather measured.
Speculating that such regular cycles will continue into the future would be speculation about cycles, based on either just simple induction or perhaps based on some hypothesis about wobbling iron core and how inertia, elasticity etc is likely to make those wobbles continue.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
About the rocket launches possibly causing it.
If not, please please please try to get QUANTITATIVE ! Don't demonstrate innumeracy.
Hint about how to do this:
Numbers (e.g. about relative masses and movement amounts) do not go like this:
1
10
100
1,000
1,000,000
A shitload
A metric f@ck-tonne
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
Mass of Earth: 5.972 x 10^24 kg
Mass of molten mostly-iron core of Earth: 1.97 x 10^24 kg
Say 1 millionth part of the core represents the net wobble in the core (total wild-ass guess)
So wobbling core mass: 1.97 x 10^18 kg
Mass of SpaceX Falcon 9 FT: 549,054 kg
So number of rocket departures from Earth needed to be roughly, really roughly equivalent to effect on Earth's rotation of wobbly molten core
2.97 x 10^18 / 549,054 =
could be on the order of 3.59 x 10^12 (that is 3.59 trillion) rocket departures
(give or take 3 orders of magnitude for shitty assumptions, but you get my general point?)
Number of actual space rocket launches in 2017: 76
So,.... no. It's not rockets, by a long shot (Ba dum Tss!)
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
Just like the upsurge of Hurricanes we were supposed to see for the last 14 years due to the phony global warming nonsense. They didn't happen.