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About 40 Percent of Bitcoin Is Held By 1,000 Users. If a Few of Them Want To Sell, That Could Tank Values (bloomberg.com)

On Nov. 12, someone moved almost 25,000 bitcoins, worth about $159 million at the time, to an online exchange. The news soon rippled through online forums, with bitcoin traders arguing about whether it meant the owner was about to sell the digital currency. From a report on Bloomberg: Holders of large amounts of bitcoin are often known as whales. And they're becoming a worry for investors. They can send prices plummeting by selling even a portion of their holdings. And those sales are more probable now that the cryptocurrency is up nearly twelvefold from the beginning of the year. About 40 percent of bitcoin is held by perhaps 1,000 users; at current prices, each may want to sell about half of his or her holdings, says Aaron Brown, former managing director and head of financial markets research at AQR Capital Management. What's more, the whales can coordinate their moves or preview them to a select few. Many of the large owners have known one another for years and stuck by bitcoin through the early days when it was derided, and they can potentially band together to tank or prop up the market.

13 of 241 comments (clear)

  1. Gold and Silver.... by Zurkeyon3733 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Have held their value for THOUSANDS of years. Bitcoin, has been around a few years and is as VOLATILE as they come. Not to mention totally intangible. Anyone dumping REAL CASH into this BS that isn't one of those 1000 people... Is giving away all of their money to those 1000 people. Basically. Because WHEN it tanks, the little guy loses 100% of their investment while they try and scramble to sell. While the 1000 sell out using high powered brokerages during its fall, and keep up to 50%...

    1. Re:Gold and Silver.... by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Gold and Silver are for maintaining wealth.

      Bitcoin is for gambling with wealth. I think a lot of people are now viewing it as a get-rich-quick scheme. Sure, there are some serious investors in it, and some legitimate money gains by some people; but it doesn't create wealth. (Quite the opposite, since it takes wealth to mine). For one person to get $1,000,000 in bitcoin, other people must collectively give up $1,000,000.

      All these people getting rich are doing so at the expense of other people who join later.

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  2. The people at the top of the pyramid by daveschroeder · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ...because that's exactly what Bitcoin is. A pyramid.

    An investment, but worse than any stock, because it's an investment in nothing.

    And yes, it's also a "cryptocurrency" -- congratulations. Blockchain!

    1. Re:The people at the top of the pyramid by daveschroeder · · Score: 3, Insightful

      When you can subdivide that finite number into meaninglessness, and any fractional amount can translate at any arbitrary value into conventional currency based on some exchange rate, the fact that it is "finite" and "X amount have been mined" means nothing (including being "inflation proof", which it isn't).

      I may use pyramid loosely; no, it's not a pyramid scheme nor a Ponzi scheme in the very strictest sense of those words. But it definitely is in the sense that a very small number of creators and/or early adopters of these schemes/"currencies" will benefit the most, to an inordinate degree. That, and they definitely benefit from new "recruits"...

    2. Re:The people at the top of the pyramid by DarthVain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think what he is getting at is that it has no intrinsic value other than as an idea anymore.

      The original idea of bitcoin was a currency. It has failed at that purpose.

      What it has turned into is a speculative investment market based on what is essentially nothing.

      So in a sense it is pyramid like in that your chances of making any money wholly depend on continued speculation. In addition specifically because there is a fixed amount (which artificially imbues it with "value" due to "scarcity"), that means those that got into it early are likely the only ones that are going to make any money, while those who jump on the bandwagon later are the ones that are going to eventually loose their shirts, much like a pyramid scheme. That said, it isn't exactly like a pyramid or a multi-level marketing BS. It is by it's own a new thing (and already there are copycats), which I can only assume in the future people will refer to an all new not quite illegal gray market framework for profit scam. No doubt it will inherent the "Bitcoin" brand as what they are called. We're witnessing the future of a new type of scammy construct. Heck prior to 2008 no one in the public had really heard about derivatives and debt artificial investment constructs as a way to make (on in the case of the eventual crash, lose) money.

      So like a pyramid scheme I have no doubt a small number of investors will make out like bandits, however I see most people loosing. How long that is going to take is the kicker. It is ALL about perception (because the product itself has no real intrinsic value), which if you have enough users and momentum and sheer will to see it work can continue for a longer time than you think it might before it eventually fails. Perfect example is real estate prices, there are a lot of players and parties involved that have a significant motivation to keep things rolling along, so they will, until no matter what or how many folks try to prop it up will usually catastrophically fail. The big difference is that land and or houses is a physical thing that is going to have some sort of real value eventually no matter what. Bitcoin doesn't even have that. Another example is what is the difference between a "true" pyramid scheme and a multilevel marking scam. Bitcoin is "closer" to being a pyramid scheme as there is absolutely nothing of value other than others propping it up as valuable. A multilevel marketing scam tries to skirt this legality by offering "products" that seem to have value, but in reality do not. They are simply there to get around laws preventing it. Things like vitamins and coffee etc... which while they might sell some token amount is all about the financial transactions and getting more people to join (i.e. invest) so as to prop up the value for those already in the scam. So as you see, while bitcoin is different, it isn't all that different. Either way, I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

      Originally I thought the idea was a good one, simply from a privacy perspective. We are moving away from cash, and into more digital transactions, but by doing so you give up a lot of autonomy as everything you do can be tracked, traced, marketed, examined etc... Which means things like cash will never really go away. Moving towards a much more digital transaction world, the world does really need some sort of crypocurrency to protect consumers against being exploited by just about everyone involved... Too bad that it appears bitcoin is an utter failure at that. Steam said it best the other day (which isn't the only reason, but a good one), is that as a currency it is simply too volatile to be used to buy things anymore. I suspect if a new type is to be introduced and be successful, it will have to build in protections somehow to keep speculators at bay. That said fiscal speculation is a larger problem that haunts all sorts of investment vehicles and is likely a tough nut to crack.

  3. Re:Sounds Scary but.. by GameboyRMH · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The whales could have much to gain from tanking Bitcoin: Hold the coins to keep the value up, wait for publicly traded companies to form specializing in BitCoin transactions, then (before governments clamp down on cryptocurrencies or any strong signs of a coordinated clampdown are apparent), short those companies and dump the coins. Quickly use the money from the coins to buy even more short orders, and laugh at the collapse all the way to the bank.

    --
    "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  4. Re:Sounds Scary but.. by iggymanz · · Score: 4, Insightful

    no, the size of the money supply is too massive compared to any billionaire dollar holdings. There are *countries* that could affect the dollar with their holdings, but no individuals

  5. Re:Potentially tank... by jellomizer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "I'm no whale but I've been buying small amounts since 2012 and my bitcoin net worth is greater than all my other assets + cash + stock, but I'm not selling."

    Bit Coins are so valuable that they are worthless.
    It is like having an infinity dollar bill. No one will be able to give you change so you cannot use it. Bitcoins are growing so fast, that a complete idiot would purchase anything with them. Because you cannot purchase anything with them, then it is just imaginary wealth.

    You could sell them, but if the price next year goes up by a factor of 100 again, then you will be kicking yourself for buying that car or house where its value will not match to what you had spent.
     

    --
    If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  6. Re:Sounds Scary but.. by iggymanz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    nonsense, the banking system and countries will always be the big players and *by design* would grow to quadrillions in holdings as the trillionaires came into existence, it can't be otherwise since the debt the trillions represent are the banking system's asset.

  7. Bitcoiners and whales by Baron_Yam · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Google 'slaying the bearwhale' for lolz; the last time a whale cashed out, Bitcoin nuts actually convinced each other to buy up the coins as fast as they were released in order to keep the coin value up. Obviously the smart move if you really believed in Bitcoin's long term viability would be to let the price crash and buy at the bottom, but the Bitcoin ecosystem isn't exactly chock full of rational players.

  8. Re:Show of Hands! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    One who rejects your false dichotomy, you basement dwelling idiot.

  9. Re:wth is bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I believe you may have misconstrued the problem with Bitcoin. It's not so much the volatility of fiat currencies... I mean of bitcoin. Whatever. One could just as easily argue that the USD (or whatever other fiat currency one prefers) is ridiculously volatile relative to bitcoin.

    But no, that's not the issue. The issue is that an inherently deflationary currency such as bitcoin, any other cryptocurrency, or indeed any commodity with a strictly limited, unmanaged supply, such as gold, is a seriously crappy means of exchange. Nobody would want to spend bitcoin, or invest it, or even use it to buy merchandise for resale, because it will be worth more tomorrow. Better to hoard it. This is a recipe for a deflationary spiral, and a depression. It's just basic macroeconomics.

    On principle, I'm no Keynsian, but I have to admit, I don't really see a way around this issue. The only answer seems to be some sort of monetary policy.

  10. Re:Sucks to be you by kaatochacha · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If you own bitcoin, and haven't converted to other forms of currency, then you're not making money: You're like a homeowner whose house value has gone up a lot: you have value on paper.