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We've Reached Peak Smartphone (washingtonpost.com)

Posted by msmash on from the get-that-phone-out-of-my-face dept.

You don't really need a new smartphone. From a column on the Washington Post (may be paywalled): Sure, some of them squeeze more screen into a smaller form. The cameras keep getting better, if you look very close. And you had to live under a rock to miss the hoopla for Apple's 10th-anniversary iPhone X or the Samsung Galaxy S8. Many in the smartphone business were sure this latest crop would bring a "super cycle" of upgrades. But here's the reality: More and more of Americans have decided we don't need to upgrade every year. Or every other year. We're no longer locked into two-year contracts and phones are way sturdier than they used to be. And the new stuff just isn't that tantalizing even to me, a professional gadget guy. Holding onto our phones is better for our budgets, not to mention the environment. This just means we -- and phone makers -- need to start thinking of them more like cars. We may have reached peak smartphone. Global shipments slipped 0.1 percent in 2017 -- the first ever decline, according to research firm IDC. In the United States, smartphone shipments grew just 1.6 percent, the smallest increase ever. Back in 2015, Americans replaced their phones after 23.6 months, on average, according to research firm Kantar Worldpanel. By the end of 2017, we were holding onto them for 25.3 months.

11 of 222 comments (clear)

  1. Market saturation by sanf780 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I believe the term that you need is "market saturation" of "good enough goods". The new devices promise more CPU and GPU power, but most people including me do not tap that power. It also does not help that recent OS versions have changed graphics, and people do not want to learn old things anew.

    1. Re:Market saturation by gbjbaanb · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes, but there comes a point where "good enough" is not worth the cost of improving.

      As a n example, look at aircraft - in the early days of flight there were many improvements constantly appearing and aircraft got better and better, until we reached the 747 and Concorde (2 planes that performed different tasks - one efficient, one fast) and that's pretty much where the state of the art stopped. Nobody tried to make a new plane for a very long time after those, and even today when the first new models came out, one is bankrupting the company because its "too good" to be useful and isn't cost-effective for the customers.

      So everything reaches a plateau. I would think a S curve to technology improvements is mostly appropriate for even smartphones. Until a breakthrough technology like holographic or neuro-injected displays appears!

    2. Re:Market saturation by Ramze · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I think you misunderstand capitalism. There have always been products that have reached peak innovation and have become ubiquitous, cheap, and offered by many suppliers at prices very near to their cost. They are called commodities.

      A great example of commodities are foods in the produce aisle. Sure, people grow and sell specialty cultivars (sometimes even with patents! -- especially the GMOs), but by and large... they're commodities.

      Screws, nails, hinges, bolts, nuts, pine wood, and many other things used in construction are commodities.

      The cell phone has a long way to go before it becomes a commodity unencumbered by patents, but its product life cycle will eventually be extended -- just like desktop PCs and laptops have gone from 2 year cycles to 3 year cycles... to 5 year and now 7 year cycles or longer. If/when Moore's Law prevents further die shrinks, we'll probably see some architecture changes that will keep things chugging along for a while..... and new battery technologies as well. But, sooner or later, after we've gotten the right architecture on the smallest sized chip with the best possible battery running on the fastest speed (5G or faster), and the patents run out on the hardware and the license restrictions on software are gone -- boom. Cell phone becomes a commodity with little to no change and cheap price.

      What drives the market is the exchange of goods and services. People are always going to need things they can't reasonably make/grow for themselves and have time and/or money to trade for those things. Capitalism doesn't live and die by computer/cell phone technology innovations. It's been around since long before computers existed. Plenty of other things to make and improve -- lots of new areas that need innovation as well. But, even if we become hyper advanced to where everything that could be invented has been and we have no new applications for that technology... people will still need stuff & still be willing to work or trade with others for that stuff in exchange for stuff that their trading partners want in return. That's the core of capitalism.

  2. Needs a new direction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I want:

    A tiny phone that just dials and talks and runs a 4G access point. You take this everywhere, it's tiny and fits in your pocket and solid enough to not need a case, you can call and read messages, and run it as a wifi hotspot. The interface reflects the tiny nature. Use a Wifi tablet as your main media/work device connected via the tiny phone's hotspot.

    Phones as getting bigger and clumsier, and Android tablets have stalled, (largely due to some idiot and his ChromeOS, and 'Android Go' targetting none existant markets).

    But to get bigger the phone part you need all the time needs to be separated from the big touch screen part, you only need sometimes.

    Something the size of an iPod Nano 8th Generation is what I want.

    1. Re:Needs a new direction by 0100010001010011 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I want it to run OpenBSD as well. I'll live with FreeBSD.

      That's it. Exactly what you said plus a shift from what ever Android has become under the direction of Google to a *BSD.

      My current phone is a Kyocera DuraPlus. And I still managed to break the screen.

      My mobile computing device with wifi and emergency cell service is a Galaxy Note 4. The only reason I upgraded was because my Note 3 fell out of my pocket and was taken out by my tractor's tiller because I was listening to FM radio on it. I have no interest in the Galaxy N+1 that they're on now. The battery is replaceable. It has Wifi, NFC, Bluetooth, FM Radio and a pen for notes. Plus I can plug it into USB OTG and hook it up to a TV. I would love to turn on a Hotspot on the DuraPlus and have a mobile datacenter.

  3. lifespan of OS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I still find it disturbing up to this day that every phones older than a few years old gets out of support for security updates. Too many Android devices with old unpatched firmware in the wild. Iphone? 4 and a half years later and no more updates from Apple. The hardware might be robust, but manifacturers donâ(TM)t give a shit about keeping security & os updates indefinitely. Thatâ(TM)s a major problem. Thoughts?

    1. Re:lifespan of OS by LordKronos · · Score: 4, Informative

      Yes, google thought about it a while ago. That's the reason why Android Oreo introduced project treble. The reason the vast majority of smartphones never get updates is because each update requires vendor customization for each piece of hardware. Project treble has split apart the hardware support layer from the main OS layer. Going forward, the vendors only need to create the initial implementation of the hardware layer, and then each time a new version of Android is released it can be laid over top the old hardware layer with no rework necessary. Updates to the hardware layer are only necessary when there is a bug there, which of course is still a concern, but that's not where the vast majority of bugs are found these days.

  4. Another device is "good enough" by Opportunist · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Computers have reached that no later than 2008. A level of quality that is basically sufficient to satisfy nearly all users, and if all you really care about is office, that level was already reached before the millennium rolled over. You could easily tell that by simply looking at how long you keep your computer. This one here is now about 5 years old and I still have no reason to replace it. I don't think a computer would have lasted me 5 years back in 2000, simply because most new software wouldn't run on it properly.

    Today I'm hard pressed to find software that doesn't run and if, I'd be hard pressed to say I want or even need that software.

    Same with smartphones today. People can do what they want to do with the cellphones they already have. The need to upgrade because the new version of your OS doesn't run or to finally run the software you want to run smoothly simply isn't there anymore. Better graphics, more CPU power, ok, but what for? Until we replace our computers with cellphones, i.e. having docking stations that turn cellphones into desktop replacements, the need for that power simply isn't there.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  5. Time for a new part to wear out by JoeyRox · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The planned obsolescence via expensive, non-user replaceable batteries isn't working like it used to. It's time for phone makers to come up with a more expensive part to wear out, one which can't so easily be manufactured by third parties. How about they start designing the screens to get dimmer over the life of the phone, so that by the third year they're completely dark? That should do the trick to get the upgrades rolling again.

  6. Re:Like cars? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 5, Funny

    Radio Shack TRS-80, 1968 Volkswagen Bug, Carter is President, cell phones are just an itch in the FCC's butt.

    Life is good.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  7. Re: Like cars? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Quarter horse. Abacus (that I recently and cheaply reoiled for faster calculations). Lincoln is president. My neighbor just died of cholera. This is the good life!