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After Rising For 100 Years, Electricity Demand is Flat (vox.com)

Posted by msmash on from the closer-look dept.

An anonymous reader shares a report: The US electricity sector is in a period of unprecedented change and turmoil. Renewable energy prices are falling like crazy. Natural gas production continues its extraordinary surge. Coal, the golden child of the current administration, is headed down the tubes. In all that bedlam, it's easy to lose sight of an equally important (if less sexy) trend: Demand for electricity is stagnant. Thanks to a combination of greater energy efficiency, outsourcing of heavy industry, and customers generating their own power on site, demand for utility power has been flat for 10 years, and most forecasts expect it to stay that way. The die was cast around 1998, when GDP growth and electricity demand growth became "decoupled." This historic shift has wreaked havoc in the utility industry in ways large and small, visible and obscure. Some of that havoc is high-profile and headline-making, as in the recent requests from utilities (and attempts by the Trump administration) to bail out large coal and nuclear plants.

8 of 229 comments (clear)

  1. EVs will change that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    When you switch to more energy efficient products, this is a natural side effect. EVs will change that obviously.

    1. Re:EVs will change that by AlanObject · · Score: 4, Interesting

      When you switch to more energy efficient products, this is a natural side effect. EVs will change that obviously.

      But with a corresponding drop in demand for fossil fuels at the point of consumption.

      Of course fossil fuels will still be used a lot for generation of electricity for EVs, but if renewables are actually dropping in price then that has to trend downward.

      Which, of course, will cause the price of gasoline to crash because of the resulting glut.

      The thing to watch for is if gasoline prices drop because of that then ICE cars become more cost-competitive against EVs than they were before. If that is true then EV cars need to become more cost-efficient than they currently are. And for that, Li-ION batteries have to both improve and drop in price.

      Maybe Elon is on to something.

    2. Re:EVs will change that by rlp · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Or Li-ion batteries will be replaced by supercapacitors. This will also solve the charging time problem. Assuming of course that low-cost commercially available supercapacitors ever become a thing.

      --
      [Insert pithy quote here]
  2. wrong title. Demand continues to increase by WindBourne · · Score: 3, Interesting

    What is NOT increasing, is the demand for UTILITIES electricity. That has been flat for some time depending on the state. If you are in a state that fights against Solar/Wind, then utility demand continues.

    However, what is missing is that this is about to change in a HUGE way. In particular, EVs will be coming on very strong esp with Commercial trucking. While cars will outsell the trucks, the trucks are ran 5-10x as much . As such, within 5 years, these will put a huge demand on electricity. Worse, it will not be a simple increase in electricity but will be heavy spikes in demand.
    It is for exactly this reason that we need base-load powers, such as nuclear.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  3. LEDs I think. by Major_Disorder · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The price on LED lighting has come down so much, that I have just finished converting my entire house to LED lighting. It has made a big difference in my electric bill. Also big power sucking CRT TVs are being replaced rapidly with LED backlit flat screens.
    I would expect the electric use to start a downward trend from this point.

    --
    First law of people: People are generally stupid.
    1. Re:LEDs I think. by Gilgaron · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah when I was finishing my basement I drew out what lighting fixtures I wanted and went to add them up to see if I could get them all on one breaker... the single fixture that came with 3 incandescent bulbs used more power than the rest of the basement put together, since the others were all LED. I intend to use the 3 bulbs that came with the fixture until they burn out and then replace them with decorative LEDs, but maybe I should just get rid of them and let the LEDs pay for themselves... we bough the house just long enough ago that I'd replaced the rest of the lighting with CFLs, which themselves had a noticeable affect on the electric bill, and look forward to replacing them with LEDs as they burn out, too.

    2. Re:LEDs I think. by jellomizer · · Score: 5, Interesting

      LED have a longer life, Can be dimmed, A wide verity of color hues, brighter bulbs can be put into lamps that normally would have cause a fire problems.

      There are a lot of Benefits from LEDs over Incandescent or CF. It isn't just greenies who use them. They are a practical light source. It just took the invention of the Bright Blue LED in 1995 (23 years ago) to help make it a reality. Otherwise we would be having Red-Yellow-Green lights with them, Which are not overly useful for normal lighting.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  4. Very interesting development by Okian+Warrior · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...but in developing countries.

    While TFA did point out, "US", it seems rather pointless because the demand, and thus the generation, and thus the pollution is occurring overseas.Just because it's not here doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

      It's like you cleaned up your back yard by throwing all the trash over the fence. Coming soon, we will be bitching at our neighbors about all the trash in their yard.

    So before the Enviro's celebrate, they should consider that they have successfully pushed the pollution into countries that are ill equipped to handle it from regulatory and societal standpoints, yet the US and other western countries are still benefiting from it.

    This is a *very* interesting development, for the following reason:

    All modern theories of economics ("schools of thought" as they are called) assume infinite demand, either by infinitely increasing population or infinitely increasing demands per person, or both.

    So for example, theory has it that you can double your sales income if you double your sales outlets - by opening stores in other states, for instance. Problem with this is that the world is finite and eventually you reach diminishing returns. Many companies found this out the hard way when they started selling through WalMart - once your jeans (or pickles) are sold at Walmart, you're done. You can no longer increase sales *at all*.

    We know that population begins to level off and decline when countries become modernized, and now it looks like demand itself has a fixed upper limit.

    If consumption is fixed, then lots of macro economic theory is simply incorrect. If efficiency per-worker reaches a level where half the available workers can fulfill the demands of the population, what do you do with the other half that can't find work?

    It's these sorts of observations and extrapolations that lead people to think of possible solutions like reduced-hours work week (for the same pay), or UBI.