Slashdot Mirror
California Bullet Train Costs Soar To $77.3 Billion, Will Take 5 Years Longer To Complete
The California High-Speed Rail Authority announced today that the cost of connecting Los Angeles to San Francisco would total $77.3 billion, an increase of $13 billion from estimates two years ago, and could potentially rise as high as $98.1 billion. They also said the earliest trains could operate on a partial system between San Jose and the farming town of Wasco would be 2029, five years later than the previous projection. Los Angeles Times reports: The disclosures are contained in a 114-page business plan that was issued in draft form by the rail authority and will be finalized this summer in a submission to the Legislature. The rail authority has wrestled with a more than $40-billion funding gap, which would increase sharply under the new cost estimates. The biggest immediate driver of the cost increase has been in the Central Valley, where the rail authority is building 119 miles of track between Wasco and Merced. The authority disclosed in early February that the cost of that work would jump to $10.6 billion from an original estimate of about $6 billion. Roy Hill, one of the senior consultants advising the state, told the rail authority board, "The worst-case scenario has happened." In its 2014 business plan, the rail authority optimistically projected that it could begin carrying passengers in just seven years. But the warning signs of uncontrolled cost growth had already started mounting then, even though until this year the rail authority has vehemently denied that it was facing a problem. The project began having trouble buying property for the route almost immediately after it issued its first construction contract in 2013.
I've been to a lot of different countries, and it's always ironic how much better their mass transit is than in the U.S. I have rarely had to rent a car or even take a taxi to get anywhere I want to go - outside of the U.S. And it's very rare for me to have to take a bus in another country. Train go everywhere, except in the country I live in.
Given the insane amounts we spend on airports and aircraft, and roads, there just isn't any justification for not having the good trains they have in other countries. Consider little Switzerland, and its incredible transit systems. Take the train from London to Paris. Nothing you would see in the U.S.
So-called "smart roads" (which aren't going to work except for those leased vehicles with locked-down hoods) and autonomous vehicles might work for urban transit eventually. For inter-city routes they are still molasses-slow and inefficient.
And I am not really sanguine about the hyperloop. The safety issues make my mind boggle, and companies are having trouble even getting a model to go fast in one.
Bruce Perens.
Exactly no one with any brains is surprised. This is government working the way it always does, badly.
Right. The Interstate highway system was such a complete disaster. And who could ever forget the mistake called Hoover dam. The power grid and water system never did do what it was supposed to. Private enterprise and the free market were the only reason we had no air carrier fatalities for 10 years and don't get me started on the U.S. Army. A high-school football team could probably push them over.
Too bad we didn't just leave it all up to AC. What were we thinking.
Iraq war was funded by the US govt. It was a national effort. This train is a state project.
Secondly, just because you wasted a lot of money on a big worthless project in the past, doesn't make it okay to keep on wasting money on further worthless projects. And yes I do agree that Iraq was a clusterfuck and that US should GTFO of the middle east completely.
I'm hoping Elon will put this matter to rest with his Boring company. By that I mean, the Senate Launch System, which at $1 billion+ per launch is a wasteful pork barrel project designed only to line the pockets of former Shuttle defense contractors. But with the successful launch of the Falcon Heavy (which currently costs less than 1/10th of the SLS but eventually with reusability will probably reach 1/100th the cost of the SLS) not even the most pork-doling corrupt senator will be able to justify the SLS's existence.
Anyways I'm hoping Boring company will do to worthless pork barrel trains what SpaceX has done to worthless pork barrel rockets.
While the Interstate system is a great success story, it spawned the very hurdles that CAHSR is trying to overcome. Highways were built by:
1. Siezing and demolishing everything they *might* need to use for a RoW
2. Completely ignoring anything resembling environmental impact
The only reason we have our successful system now is that by the time the legal system caught up and mechanisms to stop the "destruction" were put in place, most of it was already built.
Engineering, labor and materials costs have mostly kept up with inflation. At this point that's maybe 20% of the total cost of this project; the rest is in fighting lawsuits.
Texas Central is confident they will transport the first true high speed passengers in the country, despite not having yet turned a shovel. If they can manage to reach construction, I think they will win because the route is easier (mostly flat open land), 100% new build (versus sharing with existing passenger/freight RoW), and less encumbered by regulations (e.g. FRA crash safety standards can be relaxed as it does not connect to the national freight network).
And by not taking government subsidy, they were able to come up with the route of "least resistance" versus routes that involve deviating to serve every local politician's one horse town. Stations are pretty expensive, and by only having one intermediate one they save on cost, time, and legal wrangling.
...and the victims of "The Big Dig", we feel your pain.
I feel for those who had to suffer through the construction.... but as one of the tens of thousands of beneficiaries of the Big Dig,... It was worth it!!!
That's just what we tell people like you to keep you from moving to California.
You are welcome on my lawn.