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Kurzweil Predicts Universal Basic Incomes Worldwide Within 20 Years (hackernoon.com)
Google's director of engineering Ray Kurzweil made a startling prediction at the 2018 TED conference. Hacker Noon reports:
"In the early 2030s, we'll have universal basic income in the developed world, and worldwide by the end of the 2030s. You'll be able to live very well on that. The primary concern will be meaning and purpose," he said onstage at the annual event...
Kurzweil believes that by 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. It's not inconceivable then that AI will be distributing UBI to humans based on algorithms that are capable of crunching numbers in ways we cannot follow. Indeed, what we call the "State" in even just 10 years time may have been transformed by AI and blockchain tech in a way whereby even our experience of consensus decision making and democracy itself may have evolved.
Kurzweil believes that by 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. It's not inconceivable then that AI will be distributing UBI to humans based on algorithms that are capable of crunching numbers in ways we cannot follow. Indeed, what we call the "State" in even just 10 years time may have been transformed by AI and blockchain tech in a way whereby even our experience of consensus decision making and democracy itself may have evolved.
I think he could well be right, but I also think he has the timeline very wrong. 200 years, sure. 100, maybe, although I'm not convinced. But 20? No, I will bet anything that won't be the case.
In the oil crisis in the early 70s, the prediction was that we were going to all be on non-oil heating and transportation well before the turn of the century. Didn't happen. I think it still will, but things just turn around that quickly. Even seriously disruptive technologies like the steam engine and factory machines took generations to take over. Rum wasn't brewed in a day.
I was taking him seriously up until "blockchain". Once he said that I knew he'd gone senile.
Chelloveck
I give up on debugging. From now on, SIGSEGV is a feature.
Communism involves ownership of the 'means of production'. Theoretically by 'the workers', in practice by 'the state'.
First, there are almost no workers in Kurtzwell's vision, mostly just recipients. Communism's entire distinction between workers and capital becomes redundant. Second, Kurtzwell was unclear here but I suspect in his vision the AI resources are owned neither by the state nor by the few people working on them - his UBI is probably funded by taxation?
Regardless of formalities, humans become an economical burden in this future. You can see what happens thereafter in all resource-based economies, technically socialist or not - like Russia, Iran or Venezuela.
People tend to bring up the "why would anyone work" thing in UBI discussions all the time. The thing is UBI is supposed to be basic (that's the B). A UBI where everyone gets $80k/year wouldn't work (not until everything is 100% automated anyway). Most schemes talk about something around $10k/year. Enough to survive but with very little left for anything extra. Want a nice car? Fancy vacations? Private school for your kids? Then you will work.
UBI just makes the welfare system simpler, ensures it is easier for people to get the help they need and prevents poverty traps where it makes more sense not to work because losing access to welfare would leave you worse off. It also removes the need for a minimum wage on top of that. Lastly it helps to take care of the ~10% of the population that has an IQ of under ~85 and is therefore pretty much impossible to employ in a way that is a net gain in productivity. Right now most welfare systems require you to look for work (if you are able bodied) in order to qualify, which leaves a number of unemployable people bouncing from job to job just to get fired over and over, costing productivity for no gain. UBI would also remove this inefficiency.