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Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry (bloomberg.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Bloomberg: Electric buses were seen as a joke at an industry conference in Belgium seven years ago when the Chinese manufacturer BYD showed an early model. Suddenly, buses with battery-powered motors are a serious matter with the potential to revolutionize city transport -- and add to the forces reshaping the energy industry. With China leading the way, making the traditional smog-belching diesel behemoth run on electricity is starting to eat away at fossil fuel demand. The numbers are staggering. China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country's entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters -- the equivalent of London's entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance. All this is starting to make an observable reduction in fuel demand. And because they consume 30 times more fuel than average sized cars, their impact on energy use so far has become much greater than the than the passenger sedans produced companies from Tesla to Toyota. For every 1,000 battery-powered buses on the road, about 500 barrels a day of diesel fuel will be displaced from the market, according to BNEF calculations. This year, the volume of fuel buses take off the market may rise 37 percent to 279,000 barrels a day, about as much oil as Greece consumes, according to BNEF.
Those electric buses are not yet zero emission in China - where most of the electricity is generated by coal.
They can be zero emission, when solar- or hydro-powered.
Diesel buses will never be zero emission.
But after you have the electric bus, you must close the coal mine, turn off the gas pipeline, and shut down the thermal power plant. Otherwise you just moved the emissions around a little.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled"
...is to create a comprehensive network of electrically powered public transport infrastructure. Spain is already the country with the highest per capita number of high-speed rail Km's in the world, and most EU countries now have extensive electric rail networks. Diesel public transport, by comparison, is slow, heavy, unreliable, and expensive but even that's cheaper and cleaner than individuals driving themselves to work each day.
American-style suburbia, with its heavy reliance on individuals driving themselves to work, is one of the most inefficient and polluting urban planning models devised in recent history. It's also an obscene waste of people's time when they have to sit idling in traffic jams every day.
On the other hand, China is by far the most aggressive investor in renewable energy. India isn't dragging its feet either. The USA is getting left behind and falling even further behind with its current stable genius in the Whitehouse. Without a sensible, well-informed, coherent energy policy, guess who's heading for a 2nd world economy pretty soon?
Debate is a form of harassment. Do not question my truth.
The advantage of a battery-powered bus is that it can drive anywhere a diesel bus can. If you have to install overhead wires, you might as well also build rails and use trams instead of buses.
It's just a reaction to the endless criticism whenever America does something virtuous. A thousand comments immediately point out that America's not perfect and doesn't deserve any praise while so many problems remain. Now it's China, but suddenly it's okay to applaud them despite China's horrible record. A double standard.
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
yep.
Not to mention on individual vehicles you get yahoos removing emission reducing equipment (such as catalytic converter) for a slight improvement in performance or those fucks in diesel trucks wanting to 'roll coal' and leave a huge smokescreen behind them.
Bloomberg posts this article today:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-24/trump-has-it-wrong-when-it-comes-to-oil-and-opec
So the industry isn't hurting at all, but even China's demand will grow this year. I guess you could say demand would be even higher without the buses, but they're certainly not causing problems.
Long distance highways should be for passenger travel. Long haul truck drivers should get jobs on the railroad.
That's 279,000 barrels *per day*.
That's over 100 million barrels *per year*.
Just try, if you can, to picture 100 million barrels of oil. Just how massive a quantity that is. It's a big deal.
That's why I hate with number figure, it doesn't give a good picture.
Sure it's a big number, but if it covered like 0.000001% of the world production, than no matter how big the number is it's irrelevant.
The actual percentage is 0.3%. At first, it does look irrelevent.
But an AC pointed out that the world consumption grow by 0.7% during the 2016-2017 period. So this could hinder about half of the "grow" of the oil industry. Considering the importance of grow in any company in this century, it is pretty major.
Elok
I actually encountered a truck rolling coal when I was in Georgia for a conference a while back. Apparently a pedestrian walking on a road rarely used by pedestrians was enough to to be deliberately hit with a blast. Frankly, not only is rolling coal gross and damaging to the environment as a whole, the deliberate blast settings should constitute assault.
Burning a flag -> hateful political speech
Burning a flag such that the burning embers purposely fall on someone and risk hurting them -> assault
.. where regenerative braking can put the energy back into the battery. They are also big, so have room for lots of cells. And most cities number their busses for the peak morning and evening rush, so there's plenty of opportunities to schedule each bus off the road for 2 hours to fully charge it.
But busses are only the start. All the problems with electric vehicles have been solved - we just need to ramp up battery production. All that remains to be seen is if the electric takover will be the major car manufacturers will writing off their investment in the internal combustion engine, or whether a raft of new automotive companies will take over.
So the rest of use aren't going to want gas much longer.
Prediction for end of Universe #42: Fencepost error in Quantum_bogosort.cpp
China is 20% of the world's population. Even if they punch way below their weight, in a serious bid for technological leadership sheer size.
Consider Liechtenstein. It may be a terrific place to live -- in fact it's got the world's highest per capita income $139,100. But with just 39,000 inhabitants, it's never going to be a world power at anything.
Now the United States is the third most populous country in the world. Our world-leading higher education system means we punch way above our weight. But realistically we're only 5% of the world's population. To put that in perspective, India, the second most populous country, may have a huge poverty problem, but its middle class (267 million) is larger than the US middle class (121 million). Within the next decade, the size of the Chinese middle class is expected to outstrip the size of the entire US population.
So the only way we're not going to lose ground to China on technological leadership is if China screws up badly. Or we make a really concerted effort to step up our game. Possibly both would be needed. The thing is, I don't think Americans realize this; we think of tech leadership as a birthright. People would be amazed to realize that other countries have better Internet, better phone, and better health care than we do.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
In the world yes. However the oil industry is localised. The loss doesn't even show up in the global numbers, but it could be enough to cause a major investment drive or even closures of refining depending on how the local market is affected.