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Tesla Earnings Show Record Revenues With Record Losses (techcrunch.com)

TechCrunch reports of Tesla's recent Q1 2018 earnings: Tesla reported its Q1 2018 earnings today, posting adjusted losses of $3.35 per share with revenues on $3.4 billion. This is technically a beat, as analysts expected Tesla to report a loss of $3.48 a share with revenues of $3.22 billion, up from $2.7 billion a year ago. Tesla also ended Q1 with $2.7 billion in cash, down from $3.4 billion in cash at the beginning of the year. This quarter, Tesla's net losses were a record $784.6 million ($4.19 per share). So, while it's revenue was higher than ever before, it also reported record losses. At market close today, Tesla was trading at $301.15. In after-hours, Tesla is trading around $287. In its letter to investors, Tesla provided some updates to its Model 3 production, noting it hit 2,270 cars produced per week for three straight weeks in April. Tesla said demand for the Model S and Model X is still quite strong as it hit its highest order number in Q1. "Tesla said it produced 24,728 Model S cars and X vehicles, while delivering a total of 21,815 of them," reports TechCrunch. Tesla also went on to say that they expect to be profitable in Q3 once they reach their 5,000 Model 3 cars produced per week goal.

CEO Elon Musk said the automaker will launch production of the Tesla Model Y crossover in 24 months, which Musk claims to be a "manufacturing revolution." Additionally, Musk said Tesla will publish quarterly reports about the safety of its Autopilot driver assistant feature following a high-profile Autopilot crash in March.

268 comments

  1. Nikola Tesla today by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Elon Musk (c) tomorrow

  2. As usual promises for the future by grungeman · · Score: 4, Informative

    and disappointments for the present.

    Keep in mind that currently only the more expensive Model 3 is produced, which is supposed to yield in higher profit (or lower loss in Tesla's case) than the base model, which most people want.

    And the model Y will be a manufacturing revolution? I would be more inclined to believe that it if Tesla got their shít together on producing the Model 3.

    Finally Musk's behaviour on the phone conference was more than awkward. The pressure seems to be leaving marks on him.

    --

    Signature deleted by lameness filter.
    1. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Only a fucking moron would be disappointed by 3.5 years of pre-ordered backlog, demonstrated profitability, a sustained business model with no expected future borrowing, and a new vehicle announcement.

      You, sir, are a fucking moron of the highest caliber.

      You have been predicting Tesla failure for years, any day now, and the only consistency is that you are constantly wrong. Over and over and over.

    2. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Only a fucking moron would be disappointed by 3.5 years of pre-ordered backlog, demonstrated profitability, a sustained business model with no expected future borrowing, and a new vehicle announcement.

      I'm not sure how more than $700 million lost for the quarter is "demonstrated profitability", especially in light of the fact that this quarter and last quarter are the two largest losses it's ever had. Tesla's had some people waiting more than two years for the cars they placed deposits for, and one can count the number of profitable quarters in the company's 15-year history on one hand. 3.5 years of backlog isn't anything to be cheerful about either - eventually people are going to lose patience and demand those deposits back if the company can't deliver the cars, and those deposits are the only reason Tesla's ever been able to post a profit. Money talks and bullshit walks, and Musk continues to fall well short of the promised production targets. New vehicle announcements don't mean much if they can't even build their current offerings.

    3. Re:As usual promises for the future by djinn6 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I previously wrote about Tesla's troubles based on their Q4 results. Looking at Q1, it seems like nothing's changed.

      Unfortunately, they're already in a bad spot, so they really need a big change to keep it afloat. Production numbers are still low at 2500 per week. Better than before, but not nearly enough. Their margin is not bad at 19%, but that's all coming from Model S and X. Even if Model 3 could reach that level, selling 5000 per week still only comes out to $344 million in gross profit. They would have to produce and sell triple that number to be in the black.

      They didn't have any stock offerings this time, so most of the losses were covered by new debt. The remainder came from their enormous pile of $2 billion in cash.

    4. Re: As usual promises for the future by Richard_at_work · · Score: 5, Informative

      Boeing had a 7 year backlog on the 787-8, and isn't going to make a single penny in profit on any of them because of the level they fucked up - the current forecast for the entire 787 program (787-8, -9 and -10) is for it to start being profitable sometime next decade.

      After a 1000 aircraft has been delivered.

      Boeing only just stopped adding to its debt pile on the 787 last year - a decade after it was first supposed to fly.

      So no, there's no real reason to get excited about the backlog, because a massive backlog does not automatically equate to a success.

    5. Re:As usual promises for the future by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 2

      Musk sometimes appears a bit awkward in public appearances and interviews, and he visibly reacts to pressure and difficult questions. But he generally gives good answers, as opposed to the usual unflappable but empty suits spouting nothing but lines from their years of media training. I prefer that, and it makes him seem more genuine (I'd hate to use the over-used word "authentic" here). Unfortunately that sort of thing flies less well with irate stock holders than with reporters and fans assembled to witness a successful rocket launch & landing.

      --
      If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    6. Re:As usual promises for the future by grungeman · · Score: 1

      If you listen to Musk you have to ignore his style and focus on the content. This is even more true for Peter Thiel, who gives fantastic interviews where you can feel his brain working on full steam to give replies that really answer the questions.

      Still, Musk's reaction on the phone conference was a bit unusual even by his standards and I suspect he already regrets acting like that.

      --

      Signature deleted by lameness filter.
    7. Re:As usual promises for the future by bgarcia · · Score: 2

      This is the same cycle that Tesla's been through with the S and X. They burn cash until production ramps up, then they actually make money for a quarter before the plow it all back into R&D for the next vehicle. They have a plan to reach 5000 week, and a goal of over 25% margin. They will be fine.

      Tesla's Free Cash Flow

      --
      I'm a leaf on the wind. Watch how I soar.
    8. Re: As usual promises for the future by fozzydabear · · Score: 2

      "Only a fucking moron would be disappointed by 3.5 years of pre-ordered backlog, demonstrated profitability, a sustained business model with no expected future borrowing, and a new vehicle announcement." You're in the wrong forum. This one is about Tesla.

    9. Re:As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Peter Thiel is a cocksucker and you're being his bitch unnecessarily easily. Not even by using Paypal.

    10. Re:As usual promises for the future by bankman · · Score: 1

      They burn cash until production ramps up, then they actually make money for a quarter before the plow it all back into R&D for the next vehicle.

      What you're saying is that they will never be profitable as a company. Way to go then...

      --
      I feel so sig.
    11. Re: As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      First off, it would have been only $400M, except they had $120Ms more inventory backlogged due to transit delays than last quarter and a $169M hit on accounts receivable due to production skyrocketing at the end of the quarter (aka, more expenses but the revenue doesn't come until delivery). That money rolled into April.

      The simple fact is that at Tesla's Q1 burn rate it would have plenty of quarters left to achieve profitability (the only debt due this year is $200M in November). But it doesn't need plenty of quarters. Almost all of Q1 was spent at ~1000/wk Model 3 production, but it jumped to 2k/wk - sustained - right at the end of the quarter. Now Gigafactory is running at 3k/wk sustained, with bursts already up to the Q2 target of 5k/wk. Most of Fremont is up to 3k/wk except general assembly and the paint shop.

      There's a reason that Tesla is so confident that they've resumed expanding Gigafactory.

      esla's had some people waiting more than two years for the cars they placed deposits for

      And? The number of reservation holders was confirmed to be over 450k.

      and one can count the number of profitable quarters in the company's 15-year history on one hand.

      Yes, welcome to the world of growth stocks. If you don't like growth stocks, stay out of the water. Growing a company from "nothing" to "one of the largest in the world" takes monstrous amounts of capex, which gets spent well ahead of the revenue that it returns.

      3.5 years of backlog isn't anything to be cheerful about either - eventually people are going to lose patience

      Yes, you've been saying this for two years now. How's this hypothesis been working out?

      Yes, some people have, but they've been more than replaced by new reservation holders - and the majority have not. Why? Because - hype notwithstanding - the competition is a joke. The "competition" literally takes twice as long to charge on a road trip, from an inferior network, and gives you a lot less vehicle for your money, with far less interesting options packages. Yes, some people disagree, but the vast majority demonstrably do not. Look at the number of people buying Bolts, for example, vs. those waiting in line for a Model 3.

      Why is it that the hype from competitors never plays out as a serious threat? We're back to capex. Making good, profitable EVs takes vast amounts of capex, both in R&D, and in production. And at present, Tesla is the only company that's been doing that. Some companies are - finally, and I'm glad - talking about majorly upping their EV capex, and I cheer that. But the benefits of that will take years to materialize. Without a major capex spend, you either have to make a worse vehicle at a given price point, or subsidize it. And they certainly can subsidize it, but if they do so, they can only afford to make it available in limited markets. Either way, it becomes "not a threat".

      Example: most companies today are working on "next generation" li-ions for EVs with cathodes at an 8:1:1 ratio of nickel:cobalt:manganese-or-alumium. You want to keep the cobalt down because it's the most expensive part. Tesla today already has the highest energy density cells in the industry and they're better than 8:1:1 already. Mercedes, when they heard about Tesla's Semi plans, said they "break the laws of physics". No, they just have better batteries than you. That's 500 miles with their current cells; they think they may be up to 600 by then. Batteries are just one component, mind you; capex affects everything.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    12. Re:As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not until they have eaten the entire market.

    13. Re: As usual promises for the future by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 1

      So, then, there will no longer be a market, just a big Tesla monopoly? A huge, too-big-to-fail single source? That certainly is an interesting path to profitability.

      Why do people who cheer this on hate cars so much?

    14. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The 787 program. The poster child for outsourcing. If they had just gone ahead & built it with the existing systems they had in place, they would have made money. It's doubtful this program will ever show a profit. All in the name of outsourcing everything, engineering to union busting. Assholes.

    15. Re: As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      Other things we learned yesterday, while we're at it:

      1) 5k is targeted at the end of Q2 (actually 6k, but that's to make sure they can at least get to 5k). From the newsletter: "After achieving a production rate of 5,000 per week, we will begin offering new options such as all-wheel-drive and the base model with a standard-sized battery pack."

      2) Concerning the FUD that Tesla is "giving up" on factory automation, Tesla is actually doubling down on it. What they were getting rid of was a small number of specific systems that were cases of serious automation overreach. One that Musk couldn't restrain himself from self-deprecating laughter on was "FluffBot". Part of the battery pack assembly process involves careful placement of a "fluff", and they designed a robot to do it. "Fluff" being one of the hardest things you could think of for a robot to have to handle. And they had to make this elaborate computer vision system for it, and it still kept coming up with new, interesting ways to either fail to pick up the foam or to place it in unexpected places. They were paying a lot more on engineers to try to keep FluffBot working and correct its constant problems than it would have cost just to pay people to place the fluff, so of course they scrapped it.

      3) GAAP automotive gross margins en route back up 25% after being dragged down by the 3 - now up to 19,7%. S and X gross margins *over* 25%. But Model 3 margins still negative in Q1. Non-GAAP automotive margins (without ZEV credits) saw a nearly 5% boost.

      4) Bosch is on the hook for the S recall - as expected, but which lots of people here were making a storm in a teacup about.

      5) Both solar and energy storage are expecting a major ramp in Q3-Q4. Musk hinted at a 1GWh battery project in the works, dwarfing the Australia one.

      6) Before the downtime near the end of Q1 that boosted production, it took 7 hours to assemble a battery pack. It's now 17 minutes.

      7) Model 3 is now nearly the best selling sedan in its class. Not "electric sedan" - all sedans in its class. This month it should take the lead, and by the end of the year take almost half the market.

      8) The per-unit depreciation on the production system is around $2k per vehicle, well below its competitors.

      9) Based on their results so far, Tesla expects to be able to continue to reduce the cobalt, to "almost nothing".

      10) While Musk didn't care much for the question, when asked about integration of SpaceX broadband into Tesla vehicles, his answer was about three years for that.

      11) Model Y capex is not to become significant until 2019, with production starting in 2020 ("about 24 months from now"). But the unveiling will be this summer. Production will not be at Fremont.

      12) Model 3 gross margin is expected at 20% by the end of Q4, hitting 25% early next year.

      13) Tesla has no near-term plan to go to 350kW for cars. Their perspective is that it's a dumb idea to go to higher C-rate cells, which come with lower energy densities; Musk compared it to having a phone that charges quickly but only lasts a few hours; it doesn't make a good product. Tesla prefers to go to more cells per vehicle to boost net charging speeds than higher density cells. Thinks 350kW starts to make sense around 200kWh (unsaid: the new Tesla Roadster is expected to have around 200kWh)

      14) Repeated that they would like for other automakers to support supercharging, and they'd be glad to let them onto the network, so long as the designers accepted the Tesla plug and the owners paid the cost of charging. No other automaker has expressed an interest. "Moats are lame. They're nice and sort of quaint in a vestigial way, but if your only defense against invading armies is a moat, you won't last long. Pace of innovation is your only defense. "

      15) Expects Semi to hurt rail's margins - just from the reduced trucking cost to begin with, but in particular after platooning comes in. Rail is efficient, but suffers from major "last leg" problems for most go

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    16. Re:As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 0

      So you think Tesla is going to grow infinitely until it consumes the whole universe? What is this, Universal Paperclips?

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    17. Re:As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 2

      A bit unusual? I guess it was odd for a CEO to give a "No Stock For You!" answer to a questioner, it's not often you hear a CEO in an earnings call telling someone to sell their stock and not buy anymore. But I actually agree with his point - catering to the whims of day traders is dumb. And I also agree that the question that he got bored with earlier was a stupid question (there's no effect at all of the ratio of people who want a first-production vehicle vs want later config options), and by switching questioners he got a lot more strategically-useful questions.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    18. Re:As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The current Model 3 being produced is the middle cost variant, NOT the more expensive one. The more expensive one comes in the July/August time frame when they start producing the dual motor / air suspension variant.

      Also, Tesla's Model 3 production numbers have been on an exponentially accelerating curve. That sounds like getting your shit together to me. Just because they didn't hit totally pie-in-the-sky timelines doesn't mean they're not improving fast enough.

    19. Re: As usual promises for the future by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

      Good summary. Tesla seems to be getting a number of things right, and well poised to be a major player moving forward.

    20. Re: As usual promises for the future by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

      The 787 is poised to be the most profitable widebody in Boeing’s history. While the roll-out and ramp up were nothing to be praised, they have taken control of the process, are producing at unprecedented rates, and have a very solid future even on the -8, which was being written off just 12 months ago by some industry experts.

      (If Tesla used program accounting, I wonder where they would be...)

    21. Re: As usual promises for the future by mjwx · · Score: 1

      Boeing only just stopped adding to its debt pile on the 787 last year - a decade after it was first supposed to fly.

      So no, there's no real reason to get excited about the backlog, because a massive backlog does not automatically equate to a success.

      Yep, the 787 "squeezeliner" is incredibly unpopular with passengers. I'm far from the only one who's willing to pay extra to avoid flying on one. You cant count on orders you haven't filled and can be cancelled for profitability. Sadly Airbus I believe is doing the same thing.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    22. Re:As usual promises for the future by haruchai · · Score: 1

      "They have a plan to reach 5000 week, and a goal of over 25% margin"
      25% margin on a mass market sedan? HOW??

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    23. Re: As usual promises for the future by tomhath · · Score: 1

      First off, it would have been only $400M, except they had $120Ms more inventory backlogged

      Actually the loss was more than $700M, they played some accounting games by "excluding certain expenses" and booking some revenue differently this quarter to make the numbers look less bad.

    24. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Tesla said it produced 24,728 Model S cars and X vehicles, while delivering a total of 21,815 of them,"

      There's a 450k unit backlog but 2,913 cars produced weren't delivered because of what? Poor quality?

    25. Re:As usual promises for the future by haruchai · · Score: 1

      "The current Model 3 being produced is the middle cost variant, NOT the more expensive one. The more expensive one comes in the July/August time frame when they start producing the dual motor / air suspension variant"

      Which would put it up in Model S territory for pricing.and would take sales away from Tesla's more profitable sedan.

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    26. Re:As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's not really a mass-market sedan at $35k starting price, with lots of ways to option it out. It's a small entry-level sports sedan, akin to a BMW 3-series or Audi A4. Now, its TCO may be mass market, but its purchase price isn't. BMW's margins are usually around 20%.

      Also, Tesla is a lot more vertically integrated than most manufacturers. Auto parts suppliers have higher margins than automakers. Lastly, Tesla has a number of very popular software options. They're almost entirely profit. If there was no margin at all on the base model, autopilot alone (no FSD) would push it up to a 14% margin.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    27. Re: As usual promises for the future by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      2) Concerning the FUD that Tesla is "giving up" on factory automation, Tesla is actually doubling down on it. What they were getting rid of was a small number of specific systems that were cases of serious automation overreach. One that Musk couldn't restrain himself from self-deprecating laughter on was "FluffBot".

      That's ass-backwards, though. You don't start with automation. You start with hand assembly, and you add automation as it becomes clear that particular jobs are particularly automatable.

      4) Bosch is on the hook for the S recall - as expected, but which lots of people here were making a storm in a teacup about.

      Bosch has been going steeply downhill for years, and choosing to use them is a bad move. They are nothing like they were in the eighties. It's not just car parts, either. Literally everything they make is junk now.

      15) Expects Semi to hurt rail's margins - just from the reduced trucking cost to begin with,

      I thought he was trying to make the world a better place. Moving more freight from rail to trucks will do the opposite.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    28. Re: As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 2

      Did you miss the articles about the delivery delays when they happened? Particularly in Europe there were a lot of issues with a shortage of available transportation in important markets (part of it was due to a port strike in Norway, making cargo have to be shipped in over greater distances and overloading the other ports). Tesla ended up having to hire some "second tier" services that use a lot of eastern European drivers in outdated trucks, but after a number of broken down vehicles and one accident, Tesla discontinued using them, choosing to take a lower delivery count instead.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    29. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I can create 3.5 years of backlog right now. Watch.

      I will create xyz corp. It will sell refrigerators. I will sell them for 100 dollars, but they will cost 200 dollars to build. My competitors are priced at 700 dollars in retail stores.

      I can only build 1000 of these a week.

      Will you put your name on my waiting list?

    30. Re: As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 1

      Hey Rei, we're suppose to believe TSLA/Elon Musk, this is the guy that you admit is a charlatan [slashdot.org]

      You link to a post of yours and then credit it to me? What on Earth is wrong with you?

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    31. Re: As usual promises for the future by AvitarX · · Score: 1

      A deposit shouldn't show up as profit.

      You get the cash, but it's paired with an unearned income liability and it's profit nuetral.

      Then when you book the sale, you record the profit, but don't get the cash (you already have it).

      This means that actually Tesla can book positive income but still have significant negative cash flow.

      --
      Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
    32. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tim Cook did this when he told institutional conservatives to piss off and sell Apple stock, because they were bitching about Apples environmental policies

    33. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Any news on how your plan fared?

      Guess it didn't work so well, huh?

    34. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But it is ok...in the future I will be able to do it no problem. You just have to wait and see, I promise!!

    35. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where's your order list? Your legally enforceable statements filed with the SEC?

      Come on, creating investor and consumer confidence in your business plan is easy, right? Chop chop.

    36. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What the hell are you talking about? The 787 is poised to outgrow the 737 within a few years and be the most successful and most numerous aircraft out there.

    37. Re:As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 1

      Dual motor and air suspension won't add much to the price (they didn't for S/X, and won't for 3 either). Performance package on the other hand, surely will. Obviously they won't let it outperform a P100D, but I wouldn't be surprised if it outperforms a base S.

      Performance package adds a lot of profit regardless of what model line you put it on, so I don't think Tesla will hesitate to put it on the 3. I'd actually expect a surprising number of high end buyers to buy both a 3-performance and a P100D, because the latter is faster and a larger cruiser, while the former is more nimble and can do sustained track duty.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    38. Re: As usual promises for the future by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      So no, there's no real reason to get excited about the backlog, because a massive backlog does not automatically equate to a success.

      You are talking about two different things to come up with your conclusion. Success financially and success in demand. Boeing fucked up the former. Tesla so far hasn't. Their losses have not been due to Model 3 mistakes, but due to continuing hemoraging of money based on their growth aspirations and constant spending.

      Telsa is surviving on its backlog, it's in demand, cheap, and keeping the company floating with prospects.
      Boeing can be sunk by its backlog, given its production rate and the ability to quickly disenfranchies customers who pay a lot to end up in the queue with it.

    39. Re: As usual promises for the future by BlueStrat · · Score: 1

      So, then, there will no longer be a market, just a big Tesla monopoly? A huge, too-big-to-fail single source? That certainly is an interesting path to profitability.

      Why do people who cheer this on hate cars so much?

      Well, we could have a government committee design the cars and production methods and license a set of manufacturers to perform the work. That would assure no single company could out-innovate the others and capture "too much" of the market.

      They could call it the "Lada".

      Strat

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    40. Re:As usual promises for the future by djinn6 · · Score: 1

      Well, if they keep losing $3 billion between every profitable quarter, at some point they will run out of other people's money.

      As for margin, they have a negative profit margin on the Model 3 right now. But even at 25% margin, 5000 cars a week is "only" $525 million. They still need twice that to cover cost of sale and operating costs.

    41. Re: As usual promises for the future by ranton · · Score: 1

      Because - hype notwithstanding - the competition is a joke.

      While I think Tesla stock is overvalued, I generally agree with you that it is still a solid company with a lot of promise. But don't get confused into thinking Tesla's only competition is other EVs. Plenty of people, myself included, still compare Tesla to BMW, Lexus, Mercedes Benz, etc. when making a car purchase. Being an EV is a factor but for many people it isn't the largest factor driving the purchase.

      For instance the Tesla 3 has plenty of competition from cars like BMW 4 series, the Audi S4, and similar models from nearly every other luxury car manufacturer. Each of the two models will outperform the high end Tesla 3 and cost less (although with the nearly expired rebate the Tesla 3 is cheaper). The Tesla 3 is slightly cheaper over a 5 year period based on fuel costs, assuming 10k+ miles per year, but not by much. And while the 0-60 times are comparable for these vehicles (with BMW 440 & Audi S4 both beating the Tesla 3), if the Tesla 3 is like the Tesla S the handling won't be quite as good because of the extra weight.

      The Tesla vehicles are still great, and I was in line day one to put down a deposit on the Tesla 3. But I eventually went with a used BMW 435i. Tesla has plenty of competition today and will have far more over the next decade. As long as they keep making great cars they will be able to compete, but Tesla isn't blowing anyone out of the water. My guess is the Gigafactory is the most valuable part of the company.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    42. Re: As usual promises for the future by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Yeah, several ACs that constantly lie about what we post or say. Supposedly, /. Is working on new code to stop these ACs, though I'm starting to wonder.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    43. Re: As usual promises for the future by WindBourne · · Score: 2

      Wrong. The 787 WAS poised to be the most profitable. Then McNerney came onboard and forced it to be outsourced. Worse, it was a total cluster fuck that cost the company so much that no profit will be made until around 1400 787 are made/delivered. Assuming that orders and rate remain at same level, Boeing says profits will start around 2022 . After all , $31B for initial development is nothing to sneeze at.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    44. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They should just sell the company to the Chinese. They would love a nice airline.

    45. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Great point, though I wouldn't class it as unearned income. I'd class it as prepaid sales instead. Either way, you have a liability to offset the income, and either way, it is bottom-line neutral (unless the deposit is somehow for more than the full cost of the product).

    46. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      4) Bosch is on the hook for the S recall - as expected, but which lots of people here were making a storm in a teacup about.

      Intentionally misleading (because I've already clarified this previously). Bosch is ONLY on the hook for part cost. Tesla in BEARING LABOR COSTs and any other associated costs of the repairs. But you will continue to intentionally gloss over that.

    47. Re: As usual promises for the future by Thelasko · · Score: 1

      19) Musk is a soup nazi when it comes to stock. When asked about whether Tesla would be willing to make frequent production-rate announcements to reduce stock volatility, he replied no - that it's foolish to buy and sell on short-term news, and they only care about long-term investors. When pressed again, arguing that TSLA is "hard to own" because of the volatility, he replied, "We have no interest in satisfying the interests of day traders. No interest. Please sell our stock and don't buy it." That has to be a first, the CEO of a major company telling someone during an earnings call to sell their stock and not buy any more ;)

      This is an impressive move. Most CEOs bend over backwards to make Wall Street expectations every quarter. Many times projects are idled to keep costs down one quarter, and then the pace quickened on another quarter to catch up. This is a waste of resources. One purpose of the financial sector is to provide capital to cover short term gaps. Lately the industry has been pressuring companies to eliminate the need for this service. All reward, no risk.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    48. Re:As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The base model isn't even being delivered and won't be until 2019. For all the people that put down their deposit for that model, they will get their cars long after the people that bought the fully loaded model, even if they were before them on the list.

      Musk is a shyster.

    49. Re: As usual promises for the future by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

      Except, there was a lot that seems to be contradicted by other things Musk said. For example:

      1) 5k is targeted at the end of Q2 (actually 6k, but that's to make sure they can at least get to 5k). From the newsletter: "After achieving a production rate of 5,000 per week, we will begin offering new options such as all-wheel-drive and the base model with a standard-sized battery pack."

      Except Musk also said they changed the battery design to no longer accommodate all wheel drive to raise the production numbers.

      ) Concerning the FUD that Tesla is "giving up" on factory automation, Tesla is actually doubling down on it. What they were getting rid of was a small number of specific systems that were cases of serious automation overreach. One that Musk couldn't restrain himself from self-deprecating laughter on was "FluffBot"

      They didn't give up on automation, nor did they double down on it. And they did not "get rid of an automated system/" They changed the car because they couldn't automate part of it. And the change is for the worse (less noise isolation), bu they think no one will care.

      And that's just the first two bullets!

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    50. Re:As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, like how Uber is running out of other people's money?

    51. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You link to a post of yours and then credit it to me?

      Hey Rei, follow me here:
      click parent in the above link.

      That looks like you (says "Rei" as the poster anyways) admitting Musk is a charlatan scamming suckers, sorry I mean buyers, of Tesla to the tune of $3k.

    52. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, several ACs that constantly lie about what WE post or say.

      WE?
      Hey WindBourne, what's your relation to Rei? (Aside from you both are silver members of Elon Musk's gay boypussy club).

    53. Re: As usual promises for the future by superdave80 · · Score: 1

      Only a fucking moron would be disappointed by 3.5 years of pre-ordered backlog

      ...of a product that you have yet to make money on. And you better get that backlog cleared before the other automakers have similar/better options available. I could go grab a Chevy Bolt today... or a Tesla 3 3-4 (or more) years from now?

      ...demonstrated profitability...

      Demonstrated WHAT? You're joking, right?

      with no expected future borrowing

      Musk has said this before. And he'll be back begging for more money in a few quarters.

    54. Re:As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The performance model 3 will have a vastly higher profit margin than the base model S if it's anywhere near the same price. The way car options pricing is done it's almost all profit, to compensate for slim margins on the base models.

    55. Re:As usual promises for the future by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      What happens when they have to admit autonomous mode is vapor and give refunds?

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    56. Re:As usual promises for the future by Cederic · · Score: 1

      Peter Thiel is a cocksucker

      I'm not sure how this is relevant to his business acumen.

      and you're being his bitch unnecessarily easily.

      Or this. But I'm also going to have to demonstrate my ignorance on homosexual matters here. If he's a cocksucker, why would he want a bitch? They don't have cocks.

    57. Re:As usual promises for the future by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      Also, Tesla's Model 3 production numbers have been on an exponentially accelerating curve.

      I don't think you know what the word "exponential" means.

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    58. Re: As usual promises for the future by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1

      Hi Rei, I just logged in to thank you. Back in October, when I said Tesla stock overpriced, you dared me to short it. Well, I did and I made a 10% gain in under 3 months! My only regret was not holding onto that short even longer so I could benefit from Elon Musk's latest batshit conference to torpedo the stock even further. But that's why its called a "short", right? Thanks again.

    59. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not as simple as posting "losses". Most of those "losses" are investments into infrastructure that has real world value in a high demand market that is growing. From a VC standpoint, there are virtually no losses, there's a huge backlog of demand where the customers are paying up-front, and the products sold have a 30% margin. Worst case is Tesla folds and liquidated for the same amount "lost". Break even.

    60. Re: As usual promises for the future by Rei · · Score: 1

      Apparently you don't know how to read. But that's okay, help is available.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    61. Re: As usual promises for the future by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      Because it's not software and a car built in California cannot be instantly delivered to a customer in New Jersey.

      Extrapolate as necessary for distances and volumes.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    62. Re: As usual promises for the future by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      They still don't support Unicode, how the hell are they going to manage to write code to stop troll behavior when Twitter and Facebook can't even shitcan the fake news bots?

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    63. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except they are still making an AWD version starting this summer. So you are wrong.

      And they didn't eliminate the fluffiing, they just eliminated the insanely complex robot in favor of a few humans doing it for cheaper and faster. So you are wrong again.

      For a guy named "Actually, I do RTFA" you don't comprehend TFA very good.

    64. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tesla writing on the wall. Musl breakdown. LMAO at the fanbois. Keep smoking that hopium rei

    65. Re: As usual promises for the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Apparently you you like tiny south african penis with thick pubic hair transplant...much like the rug on his head. But that's okay, especially since help is not available for homosexuality.

    66. Re: As usual promises for the future by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

      Look at today’s numbers; replacement level orders or better, significantly writing down deferred costs, and improvement measures that are improving margins... and improved output.

    67. Re: As usual promises for the future by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      nd they didn't eliminate the fluffiing, they just eliminated the insanely complex robot in favor of a few humans doing it for cheaper and faster.

      I can see why you may have thought that reading only part of the response. Elon starts saying how the robot is complex and the human could do it easily. But that wasn't the solution. He went on to say, immediately after that:

      One of the questions I asked was, do we actually need that? So, we tested a car with and without and found out that there was no change in the noise volume in the cabin. So, we actually had a part that was unnecessary. That was forced â" line kept breaking down because fluffer bot would frequently just failed to pick up the fluff while put it in, like, a random location. So that was one of the silliest things I found.

      If that's too confusing, before he told that story he introduced it as

      we had these fiberglass mats on the top of the battery pack

      Ironically, it was the very next paragraph that talks about how they needed to eliminate from the battery design AWD compatibility to make their numbers. Again to quote Elon:

      So, for example, the car battery pack has a port for the front drive unit, which we then put a sealed blanking plate on. So essentially we punched a hole in it, then put a blanking plate over the hole and do that for all rear-drive unit cars, which is kind of crazy. We've added cost, we've added a manufacturing step, we've added a failure mode, and for something that is unnecessary. So, that is an example of something that's changed.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    68. Re: As usual promises for the future by mlyle · · Score: 1

      > Yes, welcome to the world of growth stocks. If you don't like growth stocks, stay out of the water. Growing a company from "nothing" to "one of the largest in the world" takes monstrous amounts of capex, which gets spent well ahead of the revenue that it returns.

      Which is why we have amortization. Sure, there's still lag, but it's at least partially compensated for.

      The big, big concern with TSLA-- if you look at gross profit, sure, they'll probably be able to reach the increased unit counts that will cover current SG&A and R&D and interest payments. But even though SG&A/R&D is supposed to be somewhat-scale-independent, in the real world it's anything but. We don't know how much SG&A is going to climb with increased unit counts and customer base. They need to do about 2.5x-3x current unit counts to cover current SG&A and interest and break even. But it seems unlikely they'll be able to do that in the current footprint.

      That's just to break even, before you start accruing value for shareholders.

    69. Re: As usual promises for the future by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 1

      Oh, I think there would be considerable competition. Certainly dealerships would import Trabants to provide competition.

    70. Re: As usual promises for the future by BlueStrat · · Score: 1

      Oh, I think there would be considerable competition. Certainly dealerships would import Trabants to provide competition.

      LOL! Ouch!

      We *did* have the Yugo here briefly in the US.

      The only reliable thing about the Yugo was it's comic-relief.

      Q: Why do Yugos have electric rear-window defrosters, being a super-economy car?

      A: To keep one's hands warm in winter while pushing it.

      Strat

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    71. Re:As usual promises for the future by haruchai · · Score: 1

      "Dual motor and air suspension won't add much to the price (they didn't for S/X, and won't for 3 either)"
      Neither are still options on Model S but when Dual-motor was introduced it was at a $4k premium

      from https://www.wired.com/2014/10/...
      "Each of the three versions of the Model S will come as a D model. The price of the 60kWh battery model will go from $71,070 to $75,070 for the dual motor system. The 85 kWh car goes from $81,070 to $85,070, and the P85 jumps from $105,570 to $120,170"

      and air suspension was $2500.
      For the Model 3, Tesla is tying those 2 options together; let's say they offer it at $5k combined.
      That's a 10% increase for the premium car and 14% for the promised $35k base car - that's not a small increase.

      "Performance package adds a lot of profit regardless of what model line you put it on, so I don't think Tesla will hesitate to put it on the 3. I'd actually expect a surprising number of high end buyers to buy both a 3-performance and a P100D, because the latter is faster and a larger cruiser, while the former is more nimble and can do sustained track duty"
      I'm sure you're right because they'll need the cash. I think Tesla will lose money on a barebones base so will need buyers to purchase options in order to make any money

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
  3. Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    https://ycharts.com/companies/GM/

    Revenue: $36.1 billion
    Net income: $1.05 billion

    Yet GM has a *lower* market cap.

    1. Re:Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, and about 35 times more cars produced and sold.

      http://www.gm.com/investors/sales/us-sales-production.html

    2. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

      Oh, and they murdered a bunch of people because the insurance company knew it would cost less than a recall.

      And their battery technology is 4 years behind, minimum.

      Dipshit.

    3. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And their battery technology is 4 years behind, minimum.

      Which might possibly be relevant if electric cars were going to be a significant portion of the total car market at any point in the foreseeable future.

    4. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      even traditional car manufacturers are now saying that electric will be half of all cars sold and build by 2025

    5. Re:Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Which is totally a reasonable point, because stock is totally priced based on companies current revenue and profit, right?

      Better tell that to all of the naive dupes that own Tesla's stock. Here, I'll give you a list of the biggest ones: Fidelity owns nearly 10% of Tesla, in its OTC portfolio, which is in turn mainly owned by Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. The next biggest dupe is Harbor Capital. Followed by those morons over at JP Morgan. Vanguard is next on the suckers list.

      Clearly the smart money is on the short-selling echo chamber over at Seeking Alpha, rather than the rubes at major investment firms.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    6. Re:Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by haruchai · · Score: 2

      https://ycharts.com/companies/GM/

      Revenue: $36.1 billion
      Net income: $1.05 billion

      Yet GM has a *lower* market cap.

      Let's not forget that after 100 years in business GM's debt exceeded their total assets by $90 billion and they're only alive because they were bailed out lock, stock and barrel

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    7. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      And we just bailed out GM for 20+B less than 10 years ago.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    8. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Lol. Electricity is all over the globe. It is fast, easy AND cheap to add high speed chargers to grids. in less than 6 years, the industry has more high speed chargers in USA and Europe than it took for gas stations to be built up to this level. It took over 60 years , mid 70s or so, for gas stations to get to this level. And in another 5 years , USA/Europe will have more high speed chargers than gas stations. And none of that includes the level 1 and 2 chargers already at home where most ppl will fill up.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    9. Re:Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      Umm... way to try to sneak Apple, Amazon and Alphabet in as investors. But Fidelity and JP Morgan have never been wrong before - with exceptions for being heavily invested in mortgages in 2008 and internet stocks in 2001, and stuff from last millennium.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    10. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by tomhath · · Score: 1

      They paid the loan back, on schedule. The main reason GM went into bankruptcy was because Obama and Pelosi wanted to show how tough they were against big business as part of their "Green economy". What better target than the car makers? That strategy backfired though because the one hurt worst was the UAW.

      But your comment is irrelevant, what matters is that they're doing quite well now.

    11. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Have you ever worked with high current power systems? Didn't think so. There is nothing easy nor cheap about it. First, you have to manage to actually power the thing while not bringing the grid down (don't talk about solar here, there is no way you could fit enough solar panels on-site to power one of these things). Then dumping that current quickly enough requires a shit ton of low resistance cabling. Putting one in here or there isn't too hard, but mass deployment? That is a serious challenge. Seriously, it takes 8 hours to charge one of these things at standard power draw. You still need that power even if it's delivered in 30 minutes. Without serious infrastructure upgrades you'd charge a car, have to wait 7.5 hours for the charger to "refill" before you could start the next one.

    12. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      The bailout wasn't GM it was the UAW retirement fund. Their bonds got illegal priority over bonds held by individuals. That's still in the courts IIRC. There is another bill pending for that bailout.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    13. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      ROFL. Red Tide/caffeinated pork, like always, you are a fucking idiot.
      You obviously have NO CLUE of how to do power.
      100 KW charger? Or even 350 KW? That is nothing on our grid.
      Heck, my brother was stringing up multiple military bases with multiple MW on each base in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The mall that I go to for charging draws MULTIPLE MW, with each major store and restaurant drawing a minimum of .2MW, though most will be closer to .75MW. In fact, even without the 10 Tesla Chargers, I would bet that the mall draws 10MW minimum. Heck, Mall of America probably draws around 20-30 MW.
      And you think that a simple 100 KW car charger will make a difference?
      Seriously, you have not a single clue of what you talk about.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    14. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by CaffeinatedBacon · · Score: 1

      Fuck off again WindBourne. What makes you think that was me? Again I'm not the only person who thinks you're full of shit, I'm sure it's quite common.

      Show me even 1 thing I ever said to you that was wrong...

    15. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Because caffeinated pork and red tide are the same person. And I've seen enough of the AC writing to know that it is also just 1 peckerhead. You.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    16. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      And you are nothing but full of shit and lies. You are not able to look at anything rationally. And when I see the same illogical bs ( such as claiming that coal is cleaner than nations gas even though I showed how it is impossible ), well, just shows that you have a lot in common with walking dude; a liar.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    17. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by CaffeinatedBacon · · Score: 1

      Just more pointless lies from you. Why do you bother?
      You still didn't show where I was wrong...

    18. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Everything u say only proves u are a fucking liar. You never back a single thing u say with anything credible

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    19. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by CaffeinatedBacon · · Score: 1

      You are still just making shit up. Where did I ever mention coal was cleaner than natural gas? I said Chinese coal was cleaner than old Chinese coal and cleaner and more efficient than US coal.
      Take your meds or something, you are clearly delusional. When I have time later I'll show you where you are wrong if you are too shy to show it yourself.

    20. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by crimson+tsunami · · Score: 1

      Jesus Windy, there has been thread after thread showing how wrong you are, and and pointing out your idiocy and lies. But you turn around and claim other people aren't credible? You are a complete joke. You pull numbers out your ass constantly, and claim anything that feels right in your gut without a second though to it being true or not, or even bothering to check. When someone, often me, calls you out on your idiocy you just go silent or try and change the topic.
      Did you ever find out where coal really comes from?
      Or how hard it is to mine 5km under water?
      Or did you just move on to your next anti-China troll and hope no one would remember how wrong you were?

    21. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      No. There has been YOU making wild accusations with nothing to back it up. The fact that you continue to lie and troll as several ppl speaks about you and what your Chinese overlords want.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    22. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      As to mining 5km in the ocean, it is happening in a number of places. You lose idiot. Yes coal are plants, while oil comes from algae. Mea culpa.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    23. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by crimson+tsunami · · Score: 1

      But you still haven't linked to a single one...
      You claimed is was easy and common...

    24. Re: Meanwhile at a REAL car manufacturer... by crimson+tsunami · · Score: 1

      Did you end up showing where you got those absolute fantasy truck pollution reducing numbers from?
      No? I could go on an on about your made up bullshit you spout as if it's a fact.

  4. long term. by houghi · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Car making is a long term investment. In the industry this is still a startup. Remember how Amazon lost a lot if moneyduring the few first uears?
    And Musk is not in it for the miney. People keep forgetting that, probably because they do not understand that.

    --
    Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    1. Re:long term. by Solandri · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Difference is Amazon was forging into unexplored territory. Nobody had built an Internet-based store of that scale before. Everything was new, so it was imperative for Amazon to burn lots of cash to search the solution space to quickly figure out the optimal way to organize the store, website, warehouses, and delivery before competitors could figure it out and grab market share. If Amazon found a better solution first, it won. If it didn't find a better solution, as long as competitors hadn't found a better solution, it didn't lose ground. It would only be a loss if your new solution isn't better AND competitors find a better solution.

      The solution space for building cars is well-explored. Has been for nearly a century. Musk gambled that a high level of automation would yield a better solution, allowing him to produce cars for cheaper than other automakers. He turned out to be wrong. In this case, because of the existence of well-established competitors, if your new solution isn't better than theirs, then you automatically lose.

    2. Re:long term. by Calydor · · Score: 3, Informative

      Amazon forged into semi-explored territory: Everyone wants to buy stuff, the question was how much and how willingly they'd do it online.

      Tesla is forging into semi-explored territory: Everyone wants to have cars, the question is how willingly they'll buy electric cars with a reasonably high degree of automation.

      --
      -=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
    3. Re:long term. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Musk is not in it for the miney.

      Holy shit, how far up his ass do you have to be to believe that a multi-billionaire capitalist and CEO of a corporation worth (allegedly) $50 billion isn't "in it for the money"?

      If the investors propping up this money-toilet believed for a second that he wasn't "in it for the money" Musk would be bankrupt and on the street by lunchtime.

    4. Re: long term. by fozzydabear · · Score: 1

      And Musk is not in it for the miney

      The $700M he's borrowed against his TSLA shares say otherwise. 5 mansions, a Gulfstream, and other features of his jet-setting lifestyle add up. It's always been about making money for himself and his voortrekker clan.

    5. Re:long term. by sphealey · · Score: 1

      = = = Difference is Amazon was forging into unexplored territory. Nobody had built an Internet-based store of that scale before. Everything was new = = =

      Amazon was exactly the Sears, Roebuck catalog order model circa 1890, except with a dial-up modem in place of a mailbox. And at the time a much less capable distribution network than Sears'.

    6. Re: long term. by Rei · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Wow, a guy worth 20 billion dollars spending $700 million on himself, with the rest tied up in change-the-world type companies. What a selfish prick.

      Meanwhile, Sergei Brin is having a one of the largest airships ever made built for him, to serve as his private flying yacht.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    7. Re:long term. by jeremyp · · Score: 1

      And Musk is not in it for the money.

      But Musk doesn't own the whole company. Other shareholders are in it for the money and they'll sell if Tesla fails to deliver, especially as Tesla is significantly overvalued at the moment.

      However, there is nothing to worry about. Musk only has to announce a new car and people flock to put $50k down for it even though it won't be in production for at least two years. Or they'll pay $3k up front for a fully autonomous driving system that may never exist.

      --
      All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
    8. Re:long term. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 0

      Amazon helped people avoid local taxes. Political climate was so anti gov and anti tax, normal tax cheats and skin flints used Amazon to dodge paying for their police and schools rationalizing it as "starve the beast" "stump the washington bureaucrats".

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    9. Re:long term. by mjwx · · Score: 2

      Amazon forged into semi-explored territory: Everyone wants to buy stuff, the question was how much and how willingly they'd do it online.

      Tesla is forging into semi-explored territory: Everyone wants to have cars, the question is how willingly they'll buy electric cars with a reasonably high degree of automation.

      Amazon had a plan for profitability. They were on target to make it by 1998, but decided to expand instead and became profitable in 2001. Amazon followed a predictable curve of increasing revenue and decreasing costs.

      Tesla does not seem to be doing the same... Uber is in the completely wrong direction.

      However Tesla Inc. is not underwritten by VC's or external investors like Uber and Amazon were, Musk and the other founders put up the cash so Tesla can run at a loss for as long as Musk is willing to underwrite it.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    10. Re:long term. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The solution space for building cars is well-explored. Has been for nearly a century. Musk gambled that a high level of automation would yield a better solution, allowing him to produce cars for cheaper than other automakers. He turned out to be wrong. In this case, because of the existence of well-established competitors, if your new solution isn't better than theirs, then you automatically lose.

      Exactly and it astounds me that Tesla has so many problems when even the low-end car makers have it down to a science. They tried to reinvent too many wheels and before long the established makers will start to give them real trouble as they come out with more and more electric models and can do it at much higher volume than Tesla and more easily bring the cost down.

      Tesla did do a good thing in proving that the market for the EV was totally viable but now the rest are going to eat it's lunch.

    11. Re:long term. by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Exactly and it astounds me that Tesla has so many problems when even the low-end car makers have it down to a science.

      Meanwhile in the real world, even with the delays, from the start of tooling, Tesla made its first 10k vehicles faster than GM made the first 1k Bolts.

      Tesla sets absurdly fast timelines for itself relative to normal product development timelines. That they frequently miss those timelines doesn't mean that they've done a bad job, it means that the company's employees aren't magicians.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    12. Re:long term. by Computershack · · Score: 1

      And Musk is not in it for the miney. People keep forgetting that, probably because they do not understand that.

      Musk may not be in it for the money but the shareholders and investors whose cash he's burning through most definitely are and at some point they're going to be fed up of continuing to feed a money pit and then Musk is truly in trouble.

      --
      I only please one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow isn't looking good either. - Scott Adams
    13. Re: long term. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Actually, car making space really is not explored at all. Musk is far more automated than others and his margins per car are higher than other car makers, esp since large car makers claim that they have negative margins on EVs. For example, supposedly, bolt is supposed to be a big money loser for GM if u believe their executives.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    14. Re: long term. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      One thing about musk, us he does learn. I suspect that MY will have a line built and semi-tested when he announces it.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    15. Re: long term. by fozzydabear · · Score: 0

      Wow, a guy worth 20 billion dollars spending $700 million on himself, with the rest tied up in change-the-world type companies. What a selfish prick.

      Meanwhile, Sergei Brin is having a one of the largest airships ever made built for him, to serve as his private flying yacht.

      I think I found one of Elon's fluffer bots.

    16. Re:long term. by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Difference is Amazon was forging into unexplored territory

      Mail order is far older than I am. That part has been thoroughly explored. Sears had the store, the warehouses, and the delivery a long time ago. All Amazon had to do was build the site. That's not a small achievement, but they didn't invent the idea of sending off for merchandise.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    17. Re:long term. by djinn6 · · Score: 1
      From the article:

      On Thursday 16th Nov, 2017, the Chief Executive of electric car maker Tesla, revealed a stunning new roadster which the company claims will be the “quickest production car ever made”.

      I'm guessing that's in the drag race, not in a circuit. But then again, in a drag race a Ferrari is no match for a "bike".

  5. Oh well, they'll make it up in volume by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    .........

    1. Re:Oh well, they'll make it up in volume by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, they will. As the volume has increased, so has the gross margin per vehicle. They just need to keep the additional capital expenditure on "the next thing" down for a bit - it will limit growth some, but Tesla has been growing like a weed patch and probably could use a bit of restraint.

      But you knew that before adding your worthless post, didn't you?

  6. Yeah, well, you know by grungeman · · Score: 0

    that's just like, ah, your opinion, man.

    --

    Signature deleted by lameness filter.
  7. Model Y by Kokuyo · · Score: 1

    Model Y crossover? Isn't the X a crossover already?

    1. Re:Model Y by taiwanjohn · · Score: 1

      Y is to X as 3 is to S (model Y is a cheaper crossover for the mid-price market).

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
    2. Re:Model Y by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'll wait for Model Z, my flying car!

    3. Re:Model Y by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      Yes, just the same as Jaguar Land Rover makes a couple different versions of the Range Rover at different price points.

      Some people want a smaller version (the Evoque) while others want the full-length classic Range Rover with all the luxury features and a supercharged V8.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
  8. Several big players have huge short positions by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 5, Interesting

    And they are pushing negative news all over the place. I see it show up in my Yahoo feed.

    If Tesla doesn't fail, they will take huge losses.

    I'm rooting for Tesla.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    1. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you also believe the Earth is flat, and the moon landings were filmed on a sound studio somewhere inside Area 51?

    2. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, because betting on Tesla to fail is such a HUGELY improbable scenario, equivalent to your examples, right?
      So when you see people spreading negative news or rumours (true or not) you never wonder if they have an interest in spreading them and in those news being true?
      Tesla failing for the right reasons doesn't exclude that others will bet on that and wish for that to be fast and spectacular.

    3. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Yes, because betting on Tesla to fail is such a HUGELY improbable scenario, equivalent to your examples, right?

      Yep.
      Look, there is no anti-Tesla-media-shorting-bring-Musk-to-his-knees conspiracy going on. It's bullshit. News outlets are not posting negative Tesla stories because some dark master behind the curtain is pulling the strings so they can make billions shorting Tesla stock, while twirling their moustache and stroking a white cat.

      Are there people out there shorting Tesla? Certainly. Is Tesla struggling? Certainly. Is it news? Yes, yes it is.

      It really is that simple. "Big players spreading negative rumors" is just as much bullshit as flat earth and 911 truthers.

    4. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by dunkelfalke · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And judging by the numbers disclosed by Tesla the shorters might actually be on to something.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    5. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by gravewax · · Score: 1

      surprise surprise a high publicity name gets published everywhere when there is news. Of course it shows up everywhere, we are in earnings season, so far there have been only a few major names to have hugely negative news, negative news gets clicks.

    6. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except for the whole facts and evidence. You are right...

    7. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Rei · · Score: 2

      Right. Tesla is the most shorted company in the US, with a third of its stock held by short positions, making for a massive risk of a short squeeze if the stock goes up by even relatively small amounts - people losing potentially tens of billions of dollars if the stock goes up. But clearly they're not going to wage anti-tesla PR - I mean, why would they?

      Also, it's not like UAW would spend half a million dollars on an anti-Tesla PR campaign oh wait they already did.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    8. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by jeremyp · · Score: 1

      Actually, they don't need Tesla to fail, they just need its share price to readjust to the point where it is a fair valuation.

      --
      All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
    9. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

      I'll wager a lot of those big players also have huge long positions. Hedging is quite common.

      --
      This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    10. Re: Several big players have huge short positions by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      No, but the shorters do.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    11. Re: Several big players have huge short positions by WindBourne · · Score: 2

      I normally do not go to seeking alpha, but I have had some good laughs. It is obvious that Tesla is targeted. Look at recent posts i.e. Montana skeptical. The guy has railed on Tesla for the last 4 years, but his most recent is just amazing. Claimed that musk lied about what production line is doing . So where did he get his number from for what the line is producing? Looked at inside EVs page and used their count of what companies delivered in USA only. Now skeptic KNOWS that is only America AND only delivered, not what the line produces, yet FUDS it. The other thing I find interesting is that if you have analysts and then go to tipranking on them. Of all the ones knocking Tesla, they are either at the bottom of all stocks, OR, they have moderate (50%) success on others, while disastrous on Tesla. None of the good ones knock Tesla. But the moderates are interesting. They push sell/short on Tesla even 5 years ago on all of it, but never on other stocks. That hints that they are paid to do this, since it is destroying personal rankings.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    12. Re: Several big players have huge short positions by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Why? The numbers by Tesla look pretty much as expected.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    13. Re: Several big players have huge short positions by grungeman · · Score: 1

      And because everything is as expected esla stock is down 7.5% today?

      --

      Signature deleted by lameness filter.
    14. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's ok, this is just a counterweight to the one-man Tesla propaganda machine named Rei. Seriously though, every Tesla thread plays out the same - lots of whining about unfair media treatment as if there's some kind of conspiracy against them even when the bad press they're getting is justified.

    15. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Shorting a stock you also long counts just the same as selling a stock. So no, they don't hedge their bets as directly as this. It would make no sense.

    16. Re: Several big players have huge short positions by SlaveToTheGrind · · Score: 1

      Why? The numbers by Tesla look pretty much as expected.

      The past-performance numbers indeed were in range of expectations -- a mere $1B of cash burned for the quarter. But of course Tesla's viability depends on changing that trajectory quickly, and Elon's general refusal to answer questions about today's fundamentals and incessant focus on the Next Big Thing coming down the road Real Soon Now strongly suggest that's not happening.

    17. Re: Several big players have huge short positions by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      Just read the summary.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    18. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nah. Area 51 is just a decoy. They filmed the moon landings on a sound studio in Area 52!

    19. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by AbRASiON · · Score: 1

      I don't know who to trust, but assuming the figures I've read are actually correct, it does seem to me, that Tesla really are very very poorly managing their funds.

      They're burning cash like crazy.

      Perhaps someone knowledgeable in DD for companies who is bullish on Tesla can tell me why such articles are actually false.?

    20. Re: Several big players have huge short positions by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      They actually did better than expected, and the stock was up on the publishing of the numbers. Then Musk opened his mouth and started berating the analysts and financial press - both of which have an outsized influence on which direction a stock can go in the short term.

      I think Musk had a couple things to say about volatility of the stock price too. Remember, most of his own net worth comes from TSLA shares, and his own compensation is now tied closely to stock price and net worth - he doesn't want to see it go down either, but he's also not worried about this day or that day. The long-term trajectory is what is important.

      Unfortunately, that trajectory isn't looking as hot as it did at this time last year.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    21. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      You're riight, there's no conspiracy. Just a few deep pocket investors that know how the shorting game works and have the resources to pull it off in a big way. The finance media are just tools being used, not co-conspirators. And there's a whole lot of useful idiots playing the part of "the greater fool" that help out.

      For example, "Celebrity" investors like Jim Chanos habitually short Tesla, then do "interviews" about their position on any financial press outlets that will have him in order to get the sheep to follow along dragging the stock down and fulfilling his position. Sure, all the sheep have to buy shares to cover their bad short play every time, but that's not his problem - that's the problem of the useful idiots.

      And when he continually grows his hoard of cash on making "the smart play" he just gets to do it all over again, and a whole new batch of lemmings start walking toward the cliff.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    22. Re:Several big players have huge short positions by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      Remember that the wish for any company to fail fast and spectacular is wishing for thousands of people to be out of their jobs.

      Don't be a fucking vulture.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
  9. Overcomplicated by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Higher revenue and higher losses.

    So.. they have increased their turnaround?

    1. Re:Overcomplicated by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      they sold and build more cars
      they also increased their infrastructure build out (loading network, stores and factories)
      they still have 2.7B in cash according to the earnings report

    2. Re:Overcomplicated by Computershack · · Score: 1

      they still have 2.7B in cash according to the earnings report

      Which dropped by $1Bn in just one quarter. At the rate of burn that $2.7Bn cash could be $0 by Christmas.

      --
      I only please one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow isn't looking good either. - Scott Adams
  10. S E X Y by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Sorry, S 3 X Y.

    Those profits, they will be S3XY.

    GET IT?!?!?! IT'S A JOKE!!!!

    1. Re:S E X Y by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      IT'S A JOKE!!!!

      But don't let the Musk fanbois hear that...

  11. Actually losing money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Until now I've been shrugging off much of the criticism of Tesla "losing" money as it has been recording gross profits on each vehicle sold, but overall "losing" money because it has been spending a lot on capital plant and equipment.

    The latest results though show that Tesla is selling each Model 3 at a loss. While the company states that it expects to break-even in Q2 and start making money in 2H, the only version of the Model 3 that it is currently selling is the high-spec one which should be more profitable.

    Ramping up production and selling at a loss (negative gross margin) isn't exactly a recipe for corporate longevity....

    1. Re:Actually losing money by Rei · · Score: 1

      The latest results though show that Tesla is selling each Model 3 at a loss.

      What exactly do you expect when you have to pay for labour and depreciation on a line designed for 5k/wk but only getting the revenue from 1k vehicles/wk off of it, like they were through all but the end of Q1?

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    2. Re:Actually losing money by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 2

      Production rate dictates profit as fixed costs are spread over multiple units; you se it in other products from other manufacturers as well. The business case was predicated on a production rate of X, and it takes time to achieve that rate.

      If S and X are making >25% margins at equal combined output to the 3, and total margin is ~19%, it is easy to see the path to profitability.

    3. Re:Actually losing money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you sure they're selling at a loss and not just investing in the factory more? They have mentioned a couple times that they ripped robots out. That undoubtedly required them to put something in their place (People or other robots), and that takes more money.

    4. Re:Actually losing money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm well aware of the fact that Tesla needs to achieve a minimum production rate to cover the fixed costs of the Model 3 production system and I do want to see Tesla survive and prosper because I admire the company's products, engineering prowess and innovative attitude (I am normally hesitant to use the word "innovate" because it is so overused, but I do believe Tesla is a company that is deserving of the label.)

      I hate to rain on a parade, but being a jaded and cynical old bastard I just wanted to point out what many may consider an inconvenient truth that I noticed seemed to be missed in the coverage of Tesla's quarterly results that I've seen.

      From what I've read, it sounds like a major unanticipated cost has been the battery pack assembly due to a botched automation system that has required a complete redesign and large numbers of humans as a stop-gap.

      I think it's worth further discussion and investigation that Tesla admits it is selling the Model 3 with a negative gross margin and it's not the base version, but the more expensive version that industry norms would dictate to have a larger gross margin than the base version.

      That being said, I don't honestly think Tesla is going to be folding as every time it has tapped debt or equity markets for capital it has been heavily oversubscribed and as long as the company's revenue continues that upwards trajectory I believe that will continue to be the case with any further capital raising.

    5. Re:Actually losing money by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      The latest results though show that Tesla is selling each Model 3 at a loss.

      Explain. As you do also break down the differences between variable costs and fixed costs.

    6. Re:Actually losing money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "The latest results though show that Tesla is selling each Model 3 at a loss."

      No they don't, they show that they took orders for thousands of Model 3 cars that haven't been delivered yet because they're expanding production capacity again and again and production ttakes a few weeks. Those "losses" aren't losses, they're sales on cars that aren't paid for until delivery this month.

    7. Re:Actually losing money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The margins are a problem. They struggle to get positive margins across the board, and they are not even including the cost of capital as many manufacturers do.

      They must keep spending money in order get over the hum, yet for the sole purpose of 'appearing' profitable for a quarter, they will intentionally hold back that necessary spending. Then they'll go back in the red the following quarter, all for nothing. It certainly is a big challenge for them.

      The costs of building the Model 3 will not meet projections because they have resorted to more manual labor.

      People like to compare to Amazon growth and spending. Yes, Amazon spent a lot of money to become profitable.... but they consistently beat their projections and hit their development targets on or ahead of plan. They were never in danger of being overtaken outpaced.

  12. Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electric by Chrisq · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electric then Tesla will be a niche player ... or purchased by one of the aforementioned in a liquidation sale

  13. Nice car Names. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Nice line-up of models.

    the S
    the 3
    the X
    the Y (soon)

    Only the roadster doesn't fit :)

    1. Re:Nice car Names. by Rei · · Score: 1

      S3XYR?

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    2. Re:Nice car Names. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      S
      3
      X ....

    3. Re:Nice car Names. by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      Really? And going with the model 'E' would have been just to obvious I suppose.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    4. Re:Nice car Names. by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      It would have even stood for 'economy'

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    5. Re:Nice car Names. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Roadster
      S
      3
      X
      Y

      Eh, it works.

  14. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Didn't you hear? Fords pulling out of the car market to focus on trucks instead. 25% protection tariffs from Uncle Sam if they do that.

  15. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electric

    But they don't and they won't. American car makers are stubborny clinging to old concepts. Electric is "not invented here" and has been forced upon them like unleaded gasoline and catalytic converters. So they do their best at resisting, and perhaps relying on being "too big to fail". Last time we got something new from the US we got . . . the SUV. Toyota want hydrogen instead of electric - but nobody else do.

    So the high end of electric is left to Tesla and perhaps a few luxury cars like Jaguar. The low end is handled by Nissan & Hyundai, with some German models thrown in.

  16. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There's a lot more hydrogen than lithium available!

  17. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who gives a damn about what GM or Ford do any more? Call me when Volkswagen, Renault-Nissan and Hyundai start mass selling electrics (roughly around next year).

  18. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by 110010001000 · · Score: 0

    The Nissan Leaf is the best selling electric car in the world. Oh yeah, and it is $30,000. Somehow Tesla fanboys forget that.

  19. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by bazorg · · Score: 1

    Who gives a damn about what GM or Ford do any more? Call me when Volkswagen, Renault-Nissan and Hyundai [...]

    I certainly do, because they have volume, in the same way that the groups you mentioned are very large and cover most market segments.

    I'm based in the UK and the media here has an expectation that the Vauxhall/Opel Corsa will have a battery model in 2020. As a GM group member, these guys have sold a LOT of these cars, and now they are part of the PSA group they should still sell a lot. Here's a chart.

    It's all very nice there are 10 different models in the "over $50K and over 300bhp" market segment, but it's when Ford, GM, Renault, VW, PSA and the big Asian manufacturers mass produce cheap electric cars that we'll get over petrol/diesel for passenger vehicles. Tesla can probably live well as a specialist high end brand, and/or a supplier to everyone else.

  20. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Rei · · Score: 1

    Before you get your hopes up too much about Jaguar...

    It's not an "American problem", it's a capex problem. Until other manufacturers start throwing the sort of capex at EVs that Tesla has, they'll struggle to compete. They can make price/feature uncompetitive models and mass produce them, or they can make price/feature competitive models via subsidy and then limit the supply. But they can't mass produce and subsidize, and rob from their gasoline sales at the same time. It's capex that reduces your per-unit cost.

    A couple manufacturers have announced plans to start putting serious capex toward EVs. Volkswagen, for example. That will start to pay off a few years down the line. But not today.

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  21. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

    And Nissan only spends $16k per car in incentives to move them. The leaf has sold ~310k units since 2010, and the Model S ~230k since 2012... at very different price points.

  22. We'll lose money on every sale by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 1

    ... but make it up in volume!

  23. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Rei · · Score: 1

    Exactly. The market space for a nearly-six-figures car is vastly smaller than for a $30k car. The fact that Tesla has sold nearly as many Ss as Nissan has sold Leafs (in 2 more years) is not a comparison to the Leaf's favour.

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  24. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by mjwx · · Score: 0

    Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electric then Tesla will be a niche player ... or purchased by one of the aforementioned in a liquidation sale

    BMW is the current EV king with their I3. For ever Tesla I see on the road, I see 5 or 6 I3's. Beyond that you have the Nissans and Renaults, I see more Renault Twizy's than Teslas here in the UK. Mistubishi are also making inroads with their PHEV range. The e-Golf exists, but has been an abysmal failure because its a petrol powered golf retrofitted with an electric engine and battery pack. Toyota has their Hybrids as does BMW and GM has the Volt (as badly as it's doing).

    Ford Audi and Mercedes are the only ones without a horse in the EV race... and I'm not sure about Audi and Mercedes.

    However I largely agree, Tesla is going to be pushed into a niche and forgotten about or bought up. I'm just pointing out the EV market is already bigger than just Tesla.

    --
    Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
  25. Tesla is a failure. Musk is incompetent. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The ONLY reason it's been around for 15 years is because Musk and his hype machine (including all you fanboys) have convinced stupid people to keep dumping cash into it. It's like a guy living on his own but still has to go to Mom and Dad for money to pay his bills.

    Tesla was supposed to be selling 500,000 cars a year by now. A 400,000+ backlog is meaningless. And it should be something that should be filled in less than a year.

    No matter how one looks at Tesla, it's a big steaming pile of shit and it's all Musk's fault because he is incompetent. He is just a typical arrogant Silly Valley software guy who couldn't put an Ikea piece of furniture together who thought he could build cars.

    1. Re:Tesla is a failure. Musk is incompetent. by Rei · · Score: 1

      So you're telling us that there were delays in the Model 3 production schedule? No way! Tell us more!

      Tesla's accelerated "15 months from the start of tooling" production schedule was insanely fast by automaker standards. The current timeline is actually closer to the original timeline (before they realized how many orders they were going to need to fill and tried to accelerate the schedule), and still a very good rate at bringing a new model line up.

      BTW, have you ever looked at who the "stupid people" dumping cash into Tesla are? Might want to do that.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  26. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by tomhath · · Score: 0

    Ford is phasing out old design sedans that run on gasoline as they move into producing all electric and pluggable hybrid sedans. And they're making big profits on trucks and SUVs while they transition the cars so no need to rack up billions in expensive debt (same as GM).

  27. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I thought the best selling electric cars world wide were BYD's. [furious googling] Ah, BYD sells the most electric cars, but they have different models. Looks like the Leaf is the best selling model.

  28. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Didn't you hear? Fords pulling out of the car market to focus on trucks instead. 25% protection tariffs from Uncle Sam if they do that.

    Yes and despite this being Slashdot some of us actually read past the headline. Ford is phasing out some of it's redundant models and will be introducing new cars, many of them EV or Plug-in Hybrid.

  29. Day traders? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The California Teacher Pension (CalSTRS) has a shit load of stock. And investing in equities - especially in a company like Tesla - was totally idiotic. When Tesla goes bust, there are going to be a lot of audits and lawsuits.

    Tesla stock is valued in the ludicrous range. It is impossible for Tesla to ever become profitable enough to justify its current price - ever.

    Musk was a complete dick. Those analysts were holding his feet to the fire over the horrible numbers Tesla is reporting and basically just ignores them? He's hiding something.

    I think Musk is sweating big time. And folks still haven't figured out the accounting shenanigans regarding the Solar City buy-out.

    It's been 15 years and Tesla has never showed a profit from operations. Complete incompetence on Musk's part. And the fact that the shareholders Okayed that ridiculous compensation package just shows me that they have been bamboozled by that South African dick.

    1. Re:Day traders? by Rei · · Score: 1

      Musk was a complete dick. Those analysts were holding his feet to the fire over the horrible numbers Tesla is reporting and basically just ignores them? He's hiding something.

      The question he didn't answer was about the ratio of people who chose an early config vs. a later config with more options available. In what way is that "holding his feet to the fire over the horrible numbers"? And to reiterate, the numbers beat market expectations. In general, the mood of the call (which I can only presume you weren't listening to, based on your description of it) was very upbeat, both on the Tesla side and the questions side.

      It's been 15 years and Tesla has never showed a profit from operations.

      Tesla has had several profitable quarters. Each time, however, it's rolled everything and more into scaleup - and managed quite successfully to scale up at a dramatic rate. Which has proven very profitable to stakeholders, which is why people are in general very happy with the company's performance under Musk's tenure. I guarantee you, there's nobody on that call who wishes Tesla had stuck with making Roadsters and never gone into debt to scale up for the S. I guarantee you, there's nobody on that call who wishes Tesla had stuck with making Ss and had never gone into debt to scale up for the 3. Of course with the benefit of hindsight various details would have been done differently. But the overalls strategy of capex-heavy growth rather than switching to dividends and slashing capex / growth after stabilizing any particular model line is very much wanted by investors. The largest investors being major funds, not retail investors.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    2. Re:Day traders? by Cederic · · Score: 1

      investing in equities - especially in a company like Tesla - was totally idiotic

      The only idiocy is that statement.

      All investment is a compromise between risk and return. Equities are a very valid and frequently sensible investment choice. High growth equities come with higher risk but are nonetheless a very valid and frequently sensible investment choice.

    3. Re: Day traders? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, you watch a lot of Fox News, huh?

  30. Free Cash Flow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Can someone here that understands my comment look into free cash flow?

    Thanks..... I don't have the time, energy or desire right now.

  31. It's revenue by OneHundredAndTen · · Score: 1

    It's revenue != its revenue. It's (not its) a mystery that so many seem to be unable (or unwilling) to grasp the very simple, straightforward and unambiguous rules that govern this. Its (not it's) rationale (rather, lack therefore) is intriguing.

  32. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

    BMW is the current EV king with their I3. For ever Tesla I see on the road, I see 5 or 6 i3's.

    Maybe where you live. But even in Europe, in 2017 while 10,5% of European BEV sales were i3s, 11,5% were Model S. Nissan was barely ahead of Model S, at 12,9% (Zoe had the lead at 22,7%), which I'll never understand.

    As for the UK specifically, in 2017, 41,1% of BEV sales were Leafs, but Model S was #2 at 17,9%. i3 was 5th place at 8,3%.

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  33. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    BMW is the current EV king with their I3. For ever Tesla I see on the road, I see 5 or 6 I3's.

    Not in Northern California. For every i3 I see, I see about a dozen Teslas. Range is a problem up here.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  34. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The reason that EVs have been more common at taking over the higher end has nothing to do with "who's producing them". It's because - opposite of gasoline cars - adding range is expensive but adding power is cheap. You need a roughly constant amount of batteries whether you're going for the high end or the low end, and those batteries cost money that makes it hard to compete at the low end. So you might as well start at the high end and work your way down.

    And capital costs do not stem from "who's making it". They stem from "how much you invest in making it". Historically, Tesla has invested far more in capex than the major automakers, and that puts the latter in a competitive disadvantage from an economics situation - either having to make less competitive vehicles, or having to subsidize them (and thus limit total production to keep costs down).

    This situation looks to be changing (e.g. VW's capital plans are no slack, for example), and I look forward to a more competitive market a few years from now. But you can't make up this sort of deficit overnight.

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  35. Fast follower by sjbe · · Score: 1

    Why is it that the hype from competitors never plays out as a serious threat? We're back to capex. Making good, profitable EVs takes vast amounts of capex, both in R&D, and in production. And at present, Tesla is the only company that's been doing that.

    No they are definitely not the only company doing that. The big auto makers are making big investments in EV tech but largely in R&D rather than production. Why? Because for them the production is actually the easy part. They have plenty of cash and experience building cars. Right now the EV market is too small to justify production for them so they are letting Tesla do the heavy lifting of building and proving the market. But Ford, GM, etc could bring an EV to market within 18-24 months. They do this all the time since that is approximately the development time of one of their cars. Their strategy is to be a fast follower which is a very sensible strategy in principle. (Samsung, Microsoft, Apple, and others do this very well) Whether it will actually play out to their favor is an open question but they have the cash to do it. In the mean time they make fairly handsome profits off their ICE powered vehicles and let Tesla take the lions share of the risk in the short run.

    Now the risk is that they can't follow fast enough or with a good enough product and Tesla eats their lunch. Anyone who claims they know how it will play out is deluding themselves. I think Tesla has a strong chance to become a long term player IF they can keep their funding going (ala Amazon) long enough to get to minimum efficient scale on production. Their stock is hugely overvalued but as long as Elon can keep the hype train on the tracks that's entirely to Tesla's benefit. The incumbent automakers had better be watching what Tesla is doing carefully and taking notes because Tesla is the ones really pushing the innovation envelope in the industry and they clearly have shown there is strong demand for EVs and features not currently offered by the traditional automakers.

    1. Re:Fast follower by tomhath · · Score: 1

      But Ford, GM, etc could bring an EV to market within 18-24 months

      GM sold over 20,000 Bolts last year. For now they're holding back on production, but they'll ramp up marketing and production at the time of their choosing.

      GM's total production averages over 57,000 vehicles per week and does so with a nice profit margin.

    2. Re:Fast follower by Rei · · Score: 2

      The big auto makers are making big investments in EV tech but largely in R&D rather than production.

      They're just not investing that much period.

      Because for them the production is actually the easy part.

      It's not an issue of "easy or hard", it's an issue of are you paying for it.

      They have plenty of cash and experience building cars

      Yes, because EV tech is totally the same thing as building ICEs.

      Right now the EV market is too small to justify production for them so they are letting Tesla do the heavy lifting of building and proving the market. But Ford, GM, etc could bring an EV to market within 18-24 months

      GM has brought EVs to market - most notably the Bolt (and Ford has done compliance cars). They have not proven competitive in the marketplace. People were more willing to wait on Tesla's waiting list than buy a Bolt.

      And 18-24 months? You realize that even with the delays, Tesla went from start of tooling to sales of the Model 3 in 15 months (April 2016 to July 2017), and hit 10k produced in the time it took GM to hit 1k? But please, go on and lecture about how major automakers can mass produce quickly and Tesla can't.

      Their strategy is to be a fast follower

      Yes, because building a gigantic battery factory is totally something you can do overnight. On pocket change, too.

      And beyond this, even if their strategy was to be a "fast follower", this would be an inherently losing strategy. Targeting where Tesla is today, rather than where they'll be several years later when your vehicles come on the market, is a good way to guarantee that your vehicles will be a flop. The market is not going to become relatively static for quiet a long time.

      But all of this is tangential. The real issue is that success in the EV market follows the money. Years after the money gets spent. And until the pocketbooks open up, there will be no success. And when they do, the success will come several years after the fact.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    3. Re:Fast follower by Rei · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Unfortunately, GM lacks two things on the Bolt: a profit margin, and a market. Apart from that, a great car, really.

      The lack of a profit margin is why GM hasn't made the Bolt available in more markets - for example, the Opel Ampera-E (Bolt) is ostensibly available in Europe, but very difficult to get ahold of. But even with the limited production, there's few people waiting for a Bolt, while Tesla has half a million people waiting for the Model 3.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    4. Re:Fast follower by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tesla losses a massive amount of money on every cat they build. Ramping up production also ramps up their loses even more. They are a dead company and only a retard would buy their shit cars.

    5. Re:Fast follower by tomhath · · Score: 3, Insightful

      there's few people waiting for a Bolt, while Tesla has half a million people waiting for the Model 3.

      GM sold all the Bolts they chose to make last year, an order of magnitude more than Tesla sold Model 3's.

      GM is still in what Musk likes to call the "capex" phase of electric car production, that's true.They won't ramp up production until the cost of production justifies it.

    6. Re:Fast follower by Rei · · Score: 1

      Tesla losses a massive amount of money on every cat they build.

      Tesla's GAAP margin is over 19% (up a percent from last quarter) and non-GAAP margin is over 18% (up 5% from last quarter).

      Don't confuse capex and pre-scaled SG&A with margins.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    7. Re: Fast follower by WindBourne · · Score: 0

      GM is NOT holding back production any more than they are holding back the volt.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    8. Re: Fast follower by tomhath · · Score: 1
    9. Re:Fast follower by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Yes, because EV tech is totally the same thing as building ICEs.
      Actually it is, and that is part of the problem.
      Most "new" EV vendors try to take as much conventional tech from the ICEs to the EVs, like anti brake blocking systems, electronic drive control (don't know the proper term in english, it is about braking individual wheels to keep the car stable) etc.
      On the other hand we had 4 wheel drives, with linear engines at each wheel, regenerative breaking etc. already 30 or probably 40 years ago.
      However: the new systems we have now in ICEs, since decades mandated by law, would need to be re-certificated, if we base them on linear engines at the wheels. No one really wants to do that at the moment.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    10. Re: Fast follower by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      GM is NOT holding back production

      The big federal subsidy on electric cars stops after 200K have been sold by the manufacturer. GM needs to wait until Tesla (finally) hits that number or they'll be at a price disadvantage. Once Tesla loses the subsidy the gloves come off.

    11. Re:Fast follower by Rei · · Score: 1

      chose to make

      The lack of a profit margin is why GM hasn't made the Bolt available in more markets

      And

      But even with the limited production, there's few people waiting for a Bolt, while Tesla has half a million people waiting for the Model 3.

      --
      "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
    12. Re:Fast follower by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "they'll ramp up marketing and production at the time of their choosing"

      What kind of bullshit FUD is this? If there was a market for the Bolt bigger than what they are currently selling, why would GM not want to lock that down right now? What possible reason would they have for not wanting to clock those sales and the guaranteed servicing right now, if they could? They're being nice guys and letting Tesla get a foothold while they struggle through their own manufacturing issues?

      The only logical answer is that they either have an inferior product and thus limited potential customers due to customers knowing it's inferior, or they can't manufacture them in a higher volume for whatever reason (parts sourcing, difficulty to manufacture, unwillingness to spend capital to increase capacity, etc.)

      But I'm sure the bigwigs in Detroit are simply saying "Nah, we don't want those sales. We'll sit on our thumbs a while longer until we decide not to." like you suggest. What an absurd statement.

    13. Re:Fast follower by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      Found the person who doesn't understand the difference between operational expense and capital expense.

      Hint: Capital expenditure is a one-time thing. They don't have to build new factories for every car they make.

      --
      Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
    14. Re: Fast follower by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      U might want to read TFA. She says they are going to increase production. It does not say how much, nor does it say that they held back.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  36. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by enjar · · Score: 1

    The EV parking slots at my company that are half filled by Chevy Volts would disagree with you. We also have Bolts, Leafs, Prius, Tesla, Focus, Golf, Hyundai and, yes, Tesla EVs/PHV vehicles. But the Volt by far is the favorite. I have one of the Volts and it's a fine car. GM is working on 20 EV or partial EV vehicles to be delivered in the next 5 years. Ford is working on a lot of EV projects, including the F150, delivery time is supposed to be 2020/2021.

  37. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

    So you agree with me? The Leaf is the best selling electric car in the world, and is $30,000 (a different price point).

  38. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

    Uh, why? The Leaf is delivering a $30,000 EV (and has been for years). Tesla is delivering a car for the rich. I don't get why you guys are such fanboys. There are other car companies producing better EV for the masses (which you guys claim you want).

  39. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

    Wrong. The Nissan Leaf is the best selling EV.

  40. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by mjwx · · Score: 1

    BMW is the current EV king with their I3. For ever Tesla I see on the road, I see 5 or 6 I3's.

    Not in Northern California. For every i3 I see, I see about a dozen Teslas. Range is a problem up here.

    Cali is usually one of the first to adopt the worst motoring trends... they popularised the Prius.

    The I3's range is a problem here in the UK too. If you wanted to go from London to a pub in Newquay to see Rodger Daltrey playing, you may as well take the train because an I3 wont make it. Honestly a Tesla would struggle as well as its about 280 miles. My M240i does about 400 miles on a tank (combination of a powerful engine and tiny fuel thimble). Jokes aside, some people in the UK commute 300 miles a day because living in London is so bloody expensive.

    --
    Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
  41. Re:And all of them are right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You forgot to add that SpaceX will never get rocket re-use by vertical landing working, that the Falcon Heavy will never fly, etc. At this point, I take every bit of naysaying about Musk's companies with a huge grain of salt. Especially since there's the undeniable feel in some of the naysaying, of an organized campaign.

  42. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There's a lot more hydrogen than lithium available!

    Which might be something approaching a point if electric cars burned lithium in an internal combustion engine.

  43. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    Cali is usually one of the first to adopt the worst motoring trends... they popularised the Prius.

    The Prius is great. Not only is it fuel efficient, but when I see one, I know that there is about a 99% chance that the driver is a bastard.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  44. Re: Let's wait for its resale price by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Our model s is 5 years old. Still has around 95% on battery. with exception of some early roadsters that used other battery cells, they are above 90%. All Model S with over 250,000 miles on them above 85% , with most having over 90%. Likely, these cars will last 15-20 years on batteries, and I suspect that battery will then cost 1-3k, which less than an engine OR transmission for a Mercedes.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  45. Re: Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electr by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Yup. And Tesla will never sell more than 10,000 cars total. Oh wait, not more than 50,000. Um, ok, not more than 100,000 total. Ok, not more than what Porsche sells. Oh damn, I know, it will be less than GM. Yeah. Right.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  46. Re: Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electr by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    No. Ford is pulling out of sedans in North America only. They will still do sedans in other parts of the globe.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  47. Re: Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electr by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Wrong. German car makers are also push H2. In fact, all of the top ones are. They can make large profits with these, which is why Tesla is able to build up.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  48. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by bazorg · · Score: 1

    Yep, agreed. The current strategies roll out the new tech gradually because of battery density and manufacturing constraints runs in parallel with wanting to avoid cannibalisation of ICE sales. This slow uptake makes a lot of sense as you point out, but the whole situation is really bad for reduction of emissions.

    One thing I'm guessing that could be different in the BEV world is that existing market segments and performance expectations do not correlate with range.
    If Ford made lots of Fiestas with 150miles winter range today, they might struggle to convince people to spend significantly more for the same range on a heavier Focus or Mondeo.

    Today, they can just have overlapping price ranges between the high end Fiesta and low end Focus and people will choose on different factors, not necessarily related to real life road performance. A Focus or Mondeo with 130miles winter range because of extra weight would look quite silly next to the mythical 150 miles Fiesta, especially if the prospective buyer is a lone commuter. Maybe this is why some manufacturers are spinning off their electric car range into separate brands (Polestar, DS, Opel). That way their marketing won't have to compare and explain ICE specs with BEV specs on the shop floor.

  49. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Wdomburg · · Score: 1

    Didn't you hear Ford plans to have sixteen electric vehicles (including hybrids, plug-in hybrids and full EVs) by 2022?

    http://www.hybridcars.com/ford...

  50. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Rei · · Score: 1

    Uh, why?

    What about this isn't plain English?

    "The market space for a nearly-six-figures car is vastly smaller than for a $30k car."

    There are two orders of magnitude more people who can afford a Leaf than an S. Yet the S sells nearly as many as the Leaf. That's not to the Leaf's credit.

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  51. Re:Let's wait for its resale price by Rei · · Score: 1

    Model Ss depreciate slower than its gasoline competitors, and Model 3's battery chemistry should be even more stable.

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  52. Re: And all of them are right. by WindBourne · · Score: 1
    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  53. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Depends whee you live, but even on raw numbers Nissan is the leader with it's LEAF, as weird as it looks.

    I see mostly Tesla's, but I'd say that I also see the i3 and Bolt in equal numbers with LEAF coming in 3rd.

    If you include other forms of battery electric transport then in the last month I've been seeing way more of Xiaomi's electric razor scooters than all electric cars combined!

  54. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by thegarbz · · Score: 0

    Nissan was barely ahead of Model S, at 12,9% (Zoe had the lead at 22,7%), which I'll never understand.

    What do you not understand, the Leaf or the Zoe lead?

  55. Different strategies for different size companies by sjbe · · Score: 0

    They're just not investing that much period.

    Not even remotely true. Your should check the news. The big automakers are making big investments into EVs and have been for some time. I run a company that makes parts for some of their prototype work. I've seen them working on it for years first hand.

    It's not an issue of "easy or hard", it's an issue of are you paying for it.

    ??? Spending money just to spend money is idiotic. Making a product just because you can is stupid. Tesla is a startup and they need to get products on the market today because otherwise they have no cash flow. GM and Ford are decidedly NOT startups and so their strategy is necessarily different. Neither approach is wrong but they each play to their needs and strengths. GM is not worried about their ability to actually make an EV. (their ability to design a good one is a little more suspect though the Bolt isn't a bad try at it) What they are worried about is whether there is a market big enough and in developing the technology so they can bring a product out when they time is right.

    Which strategy will win in the end? No one knows. That's the fun bit.

    Yes, because EV tech is totally the same thing as building ICEs.

    For the most part it is absolutely identical. A chassis is still a chassis. A suspension is still a suspension. The vast majority of the vehicle is more or less identical to stuff Ford and GM have been doing forever. The only thing that really changes is the powertrain and they aren't clueless there either.

    GM has brought EVs to market - most notably the Bolt (and Ford has done compliance cars). They have not proven competitive in the marketplace. People were more willing to wait on Tesla's waiting list than buy a Bolt.

    Tesla has been selling vehicles at a loss. You can generate a LOT of interest in your product if you are willing to finance other people to buy it. I'm as big a fan of Tesla as anyone here but when they can sell their cars AND make a profit doing it you can talk to me about being competitive in the marketplace.

    And 18-24 months? You realize that even with the delays, Tesla went from start of tooling to sales of the Model 3 in 15 months (April 2016 to July 2017), and hit 10k produced in the time it took GM to hit 1k? But please, go on and lecture about how major automakers can mass produce quickly and Tesla can't.

    You misunderstand. 18-24 months is how long it takes them from start of DESIGN to start of production. The actual production ramp up is only a fraction of that and I assure you that GM can do it faster than Tesla because they already know how to do it. If you actually think the big automakers can't ramp up production very quickly then you have NO idea what you are talking about. I work in the industry. Tesla is doing cool shit but they are way behind the big automakers when it comes to production technology and knowing how to use it. If they weren't then Tesla wouldn't be having all these growing pains with the Model 3. They are just a young company with limited experience in high volume production. Every company has a learning curve and Tesla is right in the middle of theirs. I'm not bashing Tesla but professionally I'm a guy who designs manufacturing assembly systems in the auto industry. I actually know what I'm talking about here.

    Yes, because building a gigantic battery factory is totally something you can do overnight. On pocket change, too.

    Panasonic is the company

  56. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by quenda · · Score: 1

    Didn't you hear Ford plans to have sixteen electric vehicles (including hybrids, plug-in hybrids and full EVs) by 2022?

    And Kodak had a line of digital cameras.

  57. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Thelasko · · Score: 1

    Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electric then Tesla will be a niche player ..

    Where will they get their batteries? A tier one supplier? There aren't any large enough. Somebody will have to invest a huge sum of money to get the battery production capacity high enough. The established automakers are too risk adverse to do it. The only company making that investment is Tesla.

    Tesla has a huge advantage in not having any legacy investments in IC technology. The established automakers have to shed that burden and invest in battery tech. You think Tesla has problems? The establishment will have twice the problems.

    Working in the automotive sector, the supply chain for batteries is a huge issue right now. Everybody wants them, nobody has them, and the prices are high. The Gigafactory is Tesla's greatest gamble, but I think it will pay off huge.

    --
    One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
  58. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by mjwx · · Score: 1

    Wrong. The Nissan Leaf is the best selling EV.

    Did I say highest selling... Let me check... no I said "king". As in the EV that is making the most money. BMW is about the only company not losing cash on their EV program and are the one taking all the positive press (I think GM might have made money with their bolt, but sales are abysmal despite it being a decent EV... which kinds of sounds like the most preferable of the sexually transmitted infections).

    Nissan/Renault are losing money on the Leaf/Zoe, not sure about the Twizy, but that was expressly designed to be affordable.

    --
    Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
  59. Re: Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electr by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Isn't Uncle Sam going to give them 25% handouts all over the globe? Say it aint so.

  60. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

    I 3 ? You are talking about the same I 3 sold by BMW, body designed by a collaboration between Mattel and Fisher Price?

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  61. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1
    Really, once they push electric seriously ?

    If Aunt Gemina has a moustach she would become Uncle Ben.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  62. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Wdomburg · · Score: 1

    That's my thinking. Ford has announced 16 electrified vehicles by 2021. Volkswagon 80 by 2025. GM 20 by 2021. Daimler 10 by 2022. BMW 25 by 2025. Renault-Nissan 20 by 2025.

    Some will be hybrids or plug-in hybrids, but the coming years will bring dozens of EVs to market.

  63. Re:Different strategies for different size compani by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

    Not even remotely true. Your should check the news [reuters.com]. The big automakers are making big investments [reuters.com] into EVs

    Read my other posts elsewhere in this thread, where I've discussed their investments. I think it's great that some of them have finally, recently started making (frequently backloaded) capex investments of appropriate scale. But these won't pay off for several years. I really look forward to seeing real competition several years from now. But pretending that this is equivalent to the short term market is wishful thinking.

    ??? Spending money just to spend money is idiotic.

    Developing technology that works in a real world, mass-manufacturing environment, while simultaneously securing market share and real-world data collection, is in no way "spending money just to spend money". Weak EV R&D spending and weak production volumes just do not compete; they guarantee you fall behind.

    A chassis is still a chassis.

    Actually, EV chassis are generally quite different from ICE chassis, at least in design. The battery pack functions as a stiffening element, and the loadbearing needs and available space are totally different. Real-world driving data shows how effectively your designs play out in practice.

    A suspension is still a suspension.

    Given that even well-known Tesla hater Sandy Munroe has referred to the Model 3's new suspension design as amazing and among the components that other automakers ignore at their own peril, and its handling has received glowing reviews, you could have picked a better example. No, it's not EV specific, but since you bring it up... (and actually, being an EV does affect suspension because of the lower weight distribution)

    The vast majority of the vehicle is more or less identical to stuff Ford and GM have been doing forever.

    The "dinosaur technology" is something any company - including Tesla - can hire countless existing people from the existing auto industry all around the world to fill its ranks with. That's a meaningless issue. The problem is that the rest of the auto industry can't do the reverse, at least not nearly to the same extent. They can leach random Tesla talent, and do from time to time, but there's just not enough people with EV component experience to go around. And not nearly as much EV tech is public and well established knowledge.

    EV tech is the core of the vehicle. You start with the batteries, which are in turn a composite of cathode, anode, electrolyte, separator and structural tech elements and their integration thereof into an efficient mass manufacturing process. I know your plan is just "hire an existing batterymaker". Sure, if you've got years and billions in capex, go ahead. But that's precisely the point: these things don't happen overnight or without massive investments.

    Cells are of course just a small part of the picture. From the cells you make batteries, which are far more complex beasts than most people give them credit for, in regards to charge management, heat management (between different vehicle subsystems), fire protection, structural integrity, etc. The charger's costs need to be kept down and the power kept up. Motor tech is a particularly complex research field with many fronts advancing simultaneously, and Tesla's PMSRM work is at the forefront. Again, motor tech determines cost, weight, power, and efficiency, and thus other factors like range and handling.

    Then you have the broader infrastructure developed alongside the EV powertrain. For example, Tesla has already migrated the Model 3 to a hub-based communication and power system, cutting the wiring harness in half compared to a typical car (both connections and weight). Model Y is looking to take it even further and upgrade to a HV wiring harness, eliminating most of the 1

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  64. You are really in denial by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Tesla financials are a mess, investor money is getting burned up, and Elon went bonkers on his quarterly call this week. Tesla is going down.

  65. Re: Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electr by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yup. And Tesla will never sell more than 10,000 cars total. .

    Who said that? Its amazing who Tesla seems to outperform the expectations of critics who never existed.

  66. COGS != Variable Cost by Idou · · Score: 1

    Ramping up production and selling at a loss (negative gross margin) isn't exactly a recipe for corporate longevity....

    Actually, this IS exactly the recipe for corporate longevity. . . Gross Margin ((Revenue - COGS) / Revenue) includes fixed costs in its calculation so the primary goal is to improve that number by increasing production volume. There is a common confusion between US GAAP COGS (which includes fixed costs) and the Economics concept of variable costs.

    I agree, if their variable costs were greater than the revenue per unit, then they should stop producing immediately (actually, Economics likes to use a concept of "marginal costs" to predict economic behavior because people make decisions based on changes to "opportunity costs", but lets stick to the basics for now. . .).

    Anyway, besides the negative hype motivated by huge short positions, this is business as usual.

    --
    Sdelat' Ameriku velikoy Snova!
  67. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    but when I see one, I know that there is about a 99% chance that the driver is a bastard.

    In the United States, this can also be said about the BMW logo.

  68. Think of it like a restaurant chain by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    The problem is that rapid growth can cause losses, and offering multiple dishes (vehicle and panels and batteries) can cause confusion and reduce profits if the components or labor increase in price (tariffs, supply constraints, training, building fabrication facilities).

    Technically, you'd be better off with a Chinese plug-in electric truck for $4500 than a Tesla truck, or even a Chevy Bolt made for Canada or Mexico than a Tesla car, but you're paying a premium for a premium "dining experience". The lobster you eat is still lobster, if you eat it at Denny's or at the Space Needle. But the cost is different.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  69. Kool-aid party by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

    Welcome to this article. Kool-aid is being served.

    --
    Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
  70. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

    You are not taking into consideration that the Leaf has a much lower range than the Tesla S and is therefore less useful. Pretty amazing that they have kept up.

    --
    Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
  71. Re: Let's wait for its resale price by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

    How many engines has it been through?

    How many door handles?

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  72. Hope he fails by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hope Tesla goes under. Fuck Elon Musk and Tesla for not allowing workers to unionize.

    1. Re:Hope he fails by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Curious, are you part of a union or know anyone who is? Because I have a family member who is and they would drop theirs in a heartbeat if they could. At least his experience is that they go out of their way to protect bad employees, won't do much of anything to help the good employees, and take a sizable chunk of cash out of his paychecks. They sound great in theory, and they definitely have times/occupations where they're necessary. But like most things they should be used in moderation, they should be held accountable for their actions and not forced upon anyone.

  73. Re:Different strategies for different size compani by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Another day of bad news for TSLA, another day of Rei trying to find any light in the situation.

    About 28000 vehicles that can be plugged in (yes, I'm counting PHEV--- if you can make units of PHEV you can make units of BEV--- indeed PHEV are more compelling for a big slice of the market) sold in the US. About 8000 of these are TSLA. So they're bigger than any other player, but hardly in a commanding position.

    They still have demonstrated they can make *any* vehicles profitably. The balance sheet has swollen up to $24B in liabilities. It is not pretty.

  74. Re: Different strategies for different size compan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you worked in the industry could you tell me if a car that goes through eight door handles and three motors in the course of three years is a good buy?

    Because that's how many handles and motors Tesla's replaced in most model S.

  75. Re:Different strategies for different size compani by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

    Tesla has been selling vehicles at a loss.

    No, they god damn haven't. Stop saying this, it's completely and utterly incorrect.

    Please learn what gross product margins are, and the difference between capital expenditure and operational expenditure. They just filed paperwork with the SEC showing their profit margins and they aren't negative. So either you're massively ignorant to how a business works, or you're intentionally oversimplifying the situation to the point of just posting things that are incorrect. A business can be unprofitable, but still be selling products at a profit. See: Amazon.

    The profits from sales are being invested back into the business in the form of capital expenditure - more manufacturing capacity in Fremont and Gigafactory 1. Factories and robots don't grow on trees - you have to buy them. And because Tesla has a $2.7B cash pile, they're taking an overall short-term loss right now in order to get those factories and robots. It's being re-invested in the business in order to grow future revenues by producing more product.

    --
    Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
  76. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    capex capex capex CAPEX.

    Hey look everybody, I'm a business guru!

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  77. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That used to be true. Then, for some reason about 5 or 6 years ago, all the bastards started buying Audi.

    I can't tell you how many times I've seen some prick cutting in and out of lanes, tailgating, and just generally driving like a miserable son of a bitch, and there's four joined rings on the front grille.

  78. Re:And all of them are right. by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

    Especially when it is the most shorted stock of any American company right now. It's hard not to think that whoever is holding all that short interest might be able to yank the strings of their whore puppets in the financial press in order to help give the stock a bit more headwind to help their position pay off.

    It doesn't hurt with Musk going and berating the press for doing their job, either. Something about pissing off people that buy ink by the barrel...

    --
    Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
  79. Re:And all of them are right. by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

    You know that when you're hoping for the failure of Tesla to spite one man, you're hoping for tens of thousands of people to become unemployed, right?

    Who's the asshole again?

    --
    Slashdot still doesnâ(TM)t support Unicode after it was added to the HTML standard in 1997.
  80. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Rei · · Score: 1

    Want it in simpler terms?

    You Don't Get Thing Without Paying For Said Thing

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  81. Re: Different strategies for different size compan by Rei · · Score: 1

    Meanwhile, in the real world, Consumer Reports rates Model S as above average in reliability. But thanks for playing.

    --
    "WANTED: Sinking ship seeks rats."
  82. Re: Different strategies for different size compan by mlyle · · Score: 1

    It's risen back up there, from below average. Model X is "Least Reliable". Model 3 is predicted "Average" so far, but who knows? Consumer reports puts TSLA at #21 of 27 car brands in reliability, and that doesn't really weight cost-to-repair which is expected to be pretty bad. https://www.consumerreports.or...

    I expect high reliability from something at TSLA's selling point (unless it's a supercar or something). Of course, this isn't a dealbreaker for everyone-- Cadillac does OK.

    The thing is, this particular criticism is kinda unfair. TSLA is increasing production rapidly, which is bad for quality, and has relatively few design cycles on things, so I expect them to kind of suck-- there's a lot of chance for improvement.

  83. Once Microsoft releases Zune... by Brannon · · Score: 1

    "once Microsoft releases Zune, they're going to crush the iPod" - some idiot on Slashdot in 2006

    That's not how market disruption works, genius.

  84. Re: Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electr by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    who said that? Many asshole ACs on /., as well as analysts.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  85. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Wdomburg · · Score: 1

    Yes, they were actually the pioneer in the field, like Tesla. Where are they now?

  86. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by quenda · · Score: 1

    Yes, they were actually the pioneer in the field, like Tesla. Where are they now?

    Pioneer? They tried to adapt to the new technology but failed. The usual comparison is to Fujifilm, which did survive the transition to digital.

    Will Ford be a Kodak, or a Fuji? While Ford is more adaptable and competitive than Kodak was, Ford has already been bailed out by the US government, and their main competitor GM went bankrupt.

  87. Re:Once Fords, GMs, Toyotas seriously push electri by Wdomburg · · Score: 1

    Adapt to the new technology? Kodak engineers invented it back in the 1970's, introduced the first commercial products in the late 1980's, was among the slate of the first consumer products in the mid 1990's, and was the market leader for much of the 2000's.

    They ultimately underestimated the speed of the shift from film to digital (as well as the shift from discrete cameras to camera phones) and their diversification efforts were less successful than Fuji, but that doesn't change the fact they were the primary innovator in the field. For that matter, part of what hastened their demise was the lapse of their patents on digital photography in the late 2000's cutting off yet another revenue stream and increasing their competitors margins.

    Also, unlike GM and Chrysler, Ford did not accept any TARP funds, though it did accept loans under a DOE program (with most of the funds earmarked for improving fuel efficiency).

    But it really doesn't matter if Ford remains a market leader during it's transition. There are far more and far bigger automakers in the world and they are all aggressively pursuing electrification at this point. This is not Tesla v. Ford; it's Tesla v. Toyota v. GM v. Volkswagen v. Nissan-Renault v. Hyundai-Kia v. Ford v. Fiat-Chrystler v. Honda v. Peugot Citrogen v. BMW v. all the other smaller players or new entrants to the market.

    In other words the challenge for Tesla is not whether they can best any particular competitor, but if they can maintain market dominance in face of the inevitable commodification of EVs. A better analogue is probably Tivo, who has become a relatively small player in the product segment they largely created.