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Earth's Carbon Dioxide Levels Reach Highest Point In 800,000 Years (washingtonpost.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Washington Post: For the first time since humans have been monitoring, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have exceeded 410 parts per million averaged across an entire month (Warning: source may be paywalled; alternative source), a threshold that pushes the planet ever closer to warming beyond levels that scientists and the international community have deemed "safe." The reading from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii finds that concentrations of the climate-warming gas averaged above 410 parts per million throughout April. The first time readings crossed 410 at all occurred on April 18, 2017, or just about a year ago. Carbon dioxide concentrations -- whose "greenhouse gas effect" traps heat and drives climate change -- were around 280 parts per million circa 1880, at the dawn of the industrial revolution. They're now 46 percent higher. According to Scripps Institute of Oceanography, this amount is the highest in at least the past 800,000 years. "We keep burning fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide keeps building up in the air," said Scripps scientist Ralph Keeling, who maintains the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide on Earth. "It's essentially as simple as that."
These Chinese hoaxers are going too far.
when it reaches the levels it was at about 25 million years ago when it was double what it is today.
Well You Say That As If It's A Bad Thing. But Honestly It's The Best Thing There Is.
There's an ongoing eruption event in the region. Could it have been pouring lots of CO2 into the air recently?
I'm sure the research scientists know what they're doing, but IIRC volcanic events are responsible for a lot of CO2. I'd like to see some data from samples collected elsewhere.
They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
http://reason.com/blog/2018/05/04/us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-down-europea
"Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.4% in 2017, reaching a historic high of 32.5 gigatonnes (Gt), a resumption of growth after three years of global emissions remaining flat. The increase in CO2 emissions, however, was not universal. While most major economies saw a rise, some others experienced declines, including the United States, United Kingdom, Mexico and Japan. The biggest decline came from the United States, mainly because of higher deployment of renewables."
So obviously, what happened 800,000 years ago when the average CO2 levels were presumably higher than they are now?
So what you're saying is, they were higher 800,000 years ago.
We are burning fuel, transforming materials, and using energy, all at a rate that has never before been done in the planet's history. Naturally there is a proportionate spike.
Obviously, the climate ran away and killed all life on Earth.
I assume you breath via some mechanical assistance since I suspect you're not intelligent enough to do it on your own.
This is bad news among good news. In general, CO2 output levels have been flat or going down in both the US and some other countries for a few years. 2018 is actually the first year in the last 4 where the total CO2 production of the US are going up, while they declined for the previous few years https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-natgas-eia-steo/update-1-u-s-carbon-emissions-seen-at-25-year-low-in-2017-idUSL1N1J311B. But we need to do a lot more. So what can you do to help?
There are three main aspects, personal, political and charitable:
In terms of personal lifestyle differences, the biggest options are to eat less meat and to use a personal car less. If you live somewhere where public transit is an option, you can massively cut down on your carbon footprint by simply using public transit. Not everyone has that option, since you may live somewhere where public transit isn't available or may have a job or family that necessitates getting a car, in which case, if you get a new car, make sure to buy an electric or hybrid. Also in terms of personal activity, one can keep the air conditioning or heating in one's house at not as extreme temperatures or one can better insulate one's house. If one is somewhere installing solar on one's home either for electricity or just for water heating then do it. All these personal changes are also things which overall cause one to save money so there's good reason to do it..
Political change is also important. Much of Europe is taking sensible approaches to these issues (although Germany's anti-nuclear kick isn't helping) but the US is very much not so. In general, the Democrats have a much better record on climate issues and other environmental issues than the current Republicans. This means voting for Democratic candidates and donating to them is important.
In terms of charity, this is a really good way of effecting direct change. Two good options for solar are donating to Everybody Solar https://www.everybodysolar.org/ which gets solar panels for non-profits like museums and homeless shelters, and the Solar Electric Light Fund https://www.self.org/ who helps get solar panels for locations in the developing world. SELF's work is especially important because it helps to cut off the potential of rising carbon dioxide in the developing world even as it helps increase their economies. For wind power, I recommend donating to The New England Wind Fund https://www.massenergy.org/the-wind-fund. Also, helping buy carbon offsets is important. The most efficient way of offsetting carbon in terms of tons offset per a dollar spent is Cool Earth https://www.coolearth.org/. Every little bit helps.
Capitalist dinosaurs of course.
1880 was pretty much the end of the industrial revolution. Its "dawn" is variously put at between 1780 (takeoff of large-scale mechanisation) and 1830 (opening of the first intercity railway), though some historians like to date it right back to 1760 (first industrial uses of steam power).
One side says that it is nothing called 'Climate change', it is just a frequent period of millions of years ago. But the other side thinks this phenomenon really serious. And I prefer the second thought.
WilliamReview.com
Global warming isn't going to kill all life on earth. The tardigrades aren't even going to notice, given they can live in deep sea hydro-thermal vents and deep space.
Global warming is likely to cause severe water and food stress for humans, some regions are likely to become too hot & humid for humans to survive going outside. https://www.ucsusa.org/our-wor...
800,000 years is as far back as it's possible to make any kind of plausible estimate. We don't know what the level was before then, although the pattern throughout the 800,000 years we do know about fluctuates between about 180 ppm (in ice ages) and 300 ppm. There is no strong indication that it was significantly higher before then.
That's a mean way to describe Republicans. You apologize now!
Table-ized A.I.
Rumor has it the ocean was +100 feet and the global average surface temperature +10 deg F
Usually the changes have been gradual such that life had time to adjust. Humans especially may be sucker-punched by relatively rapid change.
Table-ized A.I.
CO2 doesn't cause warming since there is almost nothing of it in the air. Plants are CO2 limited.
Sure, let me try again. Let's see, ad hominem? got it. You're a fucking idiot.
So you want your own chemistry set? I think that ship has sailed in the US. :-p
Ezekiel 23:20
Of course it used to be much more. It was double digits in percentage of the atmospheric mass. But it followed a declining curve after the "faint young Sun" ceased to be...you know, faint.
Ezekiel 23:20
I mean ... a volcano ... couldn't skew readings.
No, considering that we've exceeded volcanic contribution by more than an order of magnitude decades ago already. Volcanoes are almost a measurement error these days.
Ezekiel 23:20
We'd be much better off if CO2 levels tripled from current levels.
Now say that with a straight face. Yes, we'd be "much better off" if temperatures increased by a few degrees. :-p Well, I suppose we'd be "much better offed", though.
Ezekiel 23:20
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessm...
A bunch of graphs, data and projections say otherwise.
You really shouldn't feed the trolls. I noticed you logged in to comment, but the A/C fuckwit making the "socialist elite" comments prefers to remain anonymous.
There is no strong indication that it was significantly higher before then.
No strong indication?
Ezekiel 23:20
Great, now I have 2 of you going off like angry teens with nothing to say.
I am very amused that you think being ac is any different than some made up online alias and being ac makes what I have to say any less intelligent or your anonymous but named account more so because of it.
Again. You fail. But two of you now.
So obviously, what happened 800,000 years ago when the average CO2 levels were presumably higher than they are now?
800k is just the end of easy continuous direct CO2 observation from ice cores in their dataset.
You would have to go back a couple million years or more.
Ice ages happen on a timescale of tens of millions of years.
Actually we have had four glacial periods in the last million years.
If the f*cks I don't give were money, I'd be retired.
We'd be much better off if CO2 levels tripled from current levels
At 1200 ppm, except for the constant sensation of stuffiness, headaches, drowsiness, etc., we'll all be fine.
Doubling the CO2 will add about 1.6 deg K to our temperature; will that be a disaster?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
They choose the date carefully. Trees are essentially CO2 starved and have adapted to the current low CO2 values compared to their early evolution. Also, even though temperatures may raise in northern latitudes the temperature rise at the equator is not the same, the net effect is broader zones of arable land. Expect the worst, lush forests from northern Greenland to the equator. But that’s really unlikely considering the entrants to the 50 year long solar minimum cycle.
- Tjp
I am in wallow with my inner money grubbing capitalistic pig. ... Oink!
CO2 levels are as high as they have every been... yet warming continues to be very minor. How much more does CO2 have to rise before you accept the truth that CO2 has almost nothing to do with global warming? Twice again the current level?
If you take the chart of CO2 concentrations over the last 800k years and overlay it with temperature proxies derived from oxygen isotopes over the same period you'll see the two are irrefutably linked.
System is a bit laggy. There is quite a lot of being buffered by deep ocean currents.
Fuck atmospheric temperatures. Pay attention to ocean temperatures. That's what really matters and what is warming far more than what was widely predicted.
Ocean temps are what's going to affect sea life billions of people depend on for food. It's what's going to melt ice sheets on the poles and Greenland and cause problems for the vast majority humanity living near the coasts.
At least the plants are happy, even if some of humanity (well, the easily misled portion) is dour.
No doubt, climate change is good business for some.
Those graphs all over-estimate climate sensitivity by a factor of 2 or 3; recent peer-reviewed data points to 1.3 to 1.6 deg K for doubling of CO2, not the 3+ deg K as used by all the IPCC models. Perhaps that's why the models don't match the data, and run quite a bit hotter than actual data.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
1) no, it wouldn't
2) no, it would not be if it did.
Zero correlation between CO2 and temperature
You've dropped your posting notes. The argument is that there is zero _causation_ between CO2 and temperature. You've lost the argument on correlation, so you need to switch to causation. Then you get to link to pirates vs sea levels to try to discredit the correlation while playing 'I'm just asking', blowfish about minor details or any one of the other logical fallacies that are pretty common in threads like this.
it is a historical fact that human do much better in somewhat warmer temperatures than colder
bzzzt. Mixing local with global. Try again.
unfortunately, it won't warm the planet much.
bzzzt. Assertion from first sentence. No proof there, either. Not even an argument.
I'm sorry, you'll have to bask in the warm glow of a semi-successful trolling without being able to really spank the monkey like when you get a solid hook.
Zero correlation between CO2 and temperature.
Like in this graph?
Ezekiel 23:20
Climate change: drought, flood, sea level changes? Things a micro climate in an office doesn't need to worry about.
Plants will be growing like gangbusters. So good!
This is 100% pure unadulterated lies.
Slashdot: Lies for Nerds- Fantasy that Matters
I would venture that 1760 is the Dawn of the Industrial Revolution, which is when the first steam engines started becoming commercially available, used in mining coal (to power more steam engines), pumps, manufacturing clothing and machining parts.
First steam engines started traveling across the UK in 1810, and around Europe by the 1830s.
Electricity starts becoming a part of the equation in 1880 for use with motors and lights. This isn't the Dawn, this is like mid-day.
Mass production cars and the first airplanes show up in the 1903-1910s.
I'd say the Information Age starts with the first world wide web usage explosion in the 1990s, which took about fifteen years from when the first consumer computers started showing up.
Not humans especially, that's silly. Humans have a rather unique ability to adapt to environmental changes - obviously, since we cover nearly the entire surface of the Earth.
Maybe what you meant is modern society. We tend to get very upset when our houses blow away and our cities flood, even though we're in no real mortal danger. The "sucker-punch" will be largely economic.
Seriously. Stop overconsuming and stop preaching. We know. We all know. Very few of us are willing to make personal changes. Im talking to you, dumpy fucks. Your car hauls around an extra 100lbs of lard that you consume to support. You buy everything new because ew second hand is icky. This is your damned mess, not mine.
Perhaps true, but not necessarily via a pleasant journey. Why ignore the Boy Scout motto: "be prepared"?
Table-ized A.I.
So you think at 1200 parts per million you'll have headaches and feel tired?
A typical greenhouse runs at 1500 ppm, yet we don't see greenhouse owners passing out, catching on fire, crushed by falling sky or any other effects other than very healthy fast growing plants.
Sigh... there's no point.
We better stop those damned volcanoes from erupting!
~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
Data from the past 34 million years (which we have due to trapped atmosphere in bubbles formed on ice sheets)
34 million years, that's funny when oldest ice core is 2.7 million years.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news...
And the CO2 was still low: " the ice revealed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels that did not exceed 300 parts per million, well below today’s levels"
Closer to 3 degrees according to latest insights.
You solved it Lynwood, well done. We can just turn the whole atmosphere into a giant outdoor office or classroom.
But where will we get all the desks? I suppose we could just cut down all the trees as well...
With governments pushing for carbon taxes ...
What government is pushing for carbon taxes?
So you want your own chemistry set?
You don't even need a chemistry set. You can get a pretty good measurement of CO2 with an IR LED and a phototransistor.
recent peer-reviewed data points to 1.3 to 1.6 deg K for doubling of CO2,
The study you linked to gives a 95% confidence range of 1.1 to 4.45. That is in line with other estimates. See also this overview: http://www.realclimate.org/ind...
Volcanoes are almost a measurement error these days.
I think he is referring to Kilauea, which is only 20 miles from Mauna Loa, where these CO2 measurements were taken.
But Kilauea wasn't erupting much in April. The new vents are not in Kilauea's main caldera, but are another 20 miles east in Pahoa, and the prevailing winds blow from NE to SW, which is out to sea, not up the slopes of Mauna Loa, which towers more than 9000 feet above the summit of Kilauea.
So you think at 1200 parts per million you'll have headaches and feel tired?
No but It'll make you stupid. A number of studies have found significant evidence of reduced "brainpower" associated with this level of CO2.
A typical greenhouse runs at 1500 ppm, yet we don't see greenhouse owners passing out, catching on fire, crushed by falling sky or any other effects other than very healthy fast growing plants.
Way too low. People get acclimated to mild effects and they go away on their own. Except for the acid piss I never got used to that.
Look at the longer trend, and you'll see no evidence of volcanic eruptions interfering with the data.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/...
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/...
Actually it is the opposite way around.
The correlation factor is greatly underestimated, that is why current trends are always at the upper edge of the spectrum the IPCC is publishing.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
We can live off Trump's farts.
most likely nothing, the reliable ice core measurements ran out.
Trump says so.
I'd wish it were a joke but it is not.
That's the effect of denuclearization: more coal. If they're using more coal, they are doing it wrong. It's foolish to compete nuclear vs renewables until the last coal plant and mine is eliminated permanently.
What government is not pushing for carbon taxes ?
Been said a million times before: CO2 is not a pollutant. It's needed for plants to grow. The current CO2 levels are so low it's amazing plants survive at all. We'd be much better off if CO2 levels tripled from current levels.
All this sky is falling bullshit is about raising taxes and the socialist elite controlling the rest of us.
If you're not socialist elite and worried about CO2 levels, you're just one of their sheep.
Plants need water to grow, therefore plants cannot be overwatered.
The Little Ice Age was not global.
So you think at 1200 parts per million you'll have headaches and feel tired?
Yes. In particular it is why there is a lot of ongoing effort on air circulation in schools, with a target in most nations closer to 600 or below, as higher levels affect learning.
Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland and UK already has it but it has been pushed pretty much everywhere
The US appears to be the only large industrialized nation opposed to the idea.
No, ice cores go back about a million years. Sedimentation (chemical rock formation in water) goes far back. There is a big discrepancy in resolution with rock vs ice cores. Ice cores show us small changes over short periods (years in some cases). Sedimentation shows larger trends over large time scales (thousands of years).
But you are right, in geologic time CO2 is at a low in the past 800ky. Also note, that historically CO2 follows Temps.... i.e. empirically, CO2 isn't a climate driver.
I have a degree in geology, but the climate is not my field. I do think people should be paying more attention to historical geology and atmospheric physics than to climate models. Current climatology is plagued with the mantra of modeling. These models cannot describe past climate changes, which means they are of little use for predicting the future. Why do they stick to them? Because they have nothing else.
Maybe someone should stop cutting down the Amazon rainforest?
It's just a suggestion; feel free to put profit above everything else.
Requiem for the American Dream
What government is not pushing for carbon taxes ?
Trumpistan.
It hit me on the head!
DOOM!
DOOOM!
DOOOOOM!
At this point, if there's nothing that can be done about it, fuck off.
Come up with an actual engineering solution for carbon sequestration that can be implemented and would be EFFECTIVE.
Then come crying to us about how "We's all gonna die!"
Funny, this is exactly what the models actually do: Pretend the earth is a bell jar with everything but human CO2 emissions a constant. Garbage in, garbage out.
unusually
"...I do not think it means what you think it means."
Most of the time
Make sure you average-in data from time periods when Earth was younger and at complete different stages than it has been for millions of years... you know, just to be accurate. ;)
Doubling the CO2 will add about 1.6 deg K to our temperature; will that be a disaster?
Dunno, what did Fox News tell you to think?
Funny, that isn't what the models do. You can go download a copy of the GISS model yourself and check.
He should apologise to the dinosaurs.
" United States, mainly because of higher deployment of renewables"
I bet it was from transferring US steel, aluminum production to China. Stupid Whitey thinks that is progress.
Many large users of carbon resources in electricity generation, such as the United States,[12][13] Russia, and China, are resisting carbon taxation. And carbon taxation as implemented in most nations is worthless. Why? Because consumers are not the deciders of the vast majority of Co2 emissions. The single largest source of Co2 remains electricity, and that is not something the average consumers can choose from the grid. The third largest is actually transportation. Yeah, at the moment, America fleet mpg appears to be going down (and co2 up from ), but that is about to change. EVs are coming in a big way over the next couple of years mostly with commercial trucks. The real problem remains that coal plants continue to be added esp in China. Until adfitional coal plants ( not replacement ) is stooped, co2 will continue its massive growth.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Did you ever stop long enough to think that just maybe the rise in CO2 levels were part of a natural feedback
We know that the extra CO2 comes from burning fossil fuels. You can verify this for yourself by taking the published numbers for amounts of fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) produced over the last century, and figuring out how much CO2 each produces, and then adding it all up. You'll get a number that's roughly twice the amount of extra CO2 in the atmosphere over the same time.
If you think it's a "natural feedback", then explain where this CO2 is actually coming from, and what happened to all the fossil CO2 we've produced.
Ugh no. The rise in co2 is not due to the plants. Well, not living ones. It is known how much co2 is USED by plants, and given off. In general, plants use Much more co2, than they give off. If not, then they would not have energy storage ( carbon converted to sugars ). Forest fires, volcanoes, etc give off co2, but known quantity. The problem is burning of fossil fuels esp from coal plants. Coal plants are #1 source of our burning fossil fuels and creating Co2. And as long as nations continue to build these out, it will continue to grow faster.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
I guess that in that case, I have to build that thing! Is this somehow about differential transmittance?
Ezekiel 23:20
Carbon based life will last longer, now a depleted nutrient is being replenished slightly. Our job is to prevent asteroid extinction events and prevail.
Greenhouse gas theory ignores entropy and convection in the troposphere.
Doubling the CO2 will add about 1.6 deg K to our temperature; will that be a disaster?
Basically, yes. This is because the change will be fast and because we've set up most of our entire global society (think the location of cities and of the most productive farming) to work well with temperatures (and sea level which is closely connected) as they currently are.
SJW n. One who posts facts.
Plants are going crazy. Carbon has no business being in the ground. Though it would be nice if it whould happen a bit slower, i agree on that.
Come up with an actual engineering solution for carbon sequestration that can be implemented and would be EFFECTIVE.
Then come crying to us about how "We's all gonna die!"
You are making no sense. If that happened, nobody would be saying that. It follows that because we don't have access to fantasy/sci-fi technology, many will.
Hey, maybe they should look at what amount of carbon sequestering has/is being destroyed for industrial profits as well.
STOP SHOVING GUILT UPON THE NORMAL PEOPLE WHO GOT NOTHING TO DO WITH IT IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Grab those who made it this way, the rich and scruples...
Nothing but onesided visions for what purpose really ? shove more taxes our way maybe ??? Great manipulation of the masses there.
Usually the changes have been gradual such that life had time to adjust.
Not really, temperature reconstruction is a bit of black magic. The error bars are so huge that it's hard to determine a lot. See for example, the Greenland ice core series, there are multiple periods where the temperature fluctuated very rapidly. Here is another selection of various reconstructions to give you an idea of the difficulty of coming up with an accurate picture. Which temperature record is the most accurate? Here's another one that is older, but shows temperature changes coming on very quickly. (An interesting thing about that graph is that CO2 changes follow temperature changes).
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Here's another one that is older, but shows temperature changes coming on very quickly [wikimedia.org].
The scale on that graph is too small to support your argument.
The scale on that graph is too small to support your argument.
A 12 degree jump in temperature isn't enough for you?
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Depends. A 12 degree jump in how much time exactly ?
It's just more propaganda and social engineering for the ignorant, and a cause for the irrelevant, delivered through an article.
Any forest would be cut down to make room for argo-industrial coglomerates.
Also note, that historically CO2 follows Temps.... i.e. empirically, CO2 isn't a climate driver.
Except we know the current source of CO2 increases and it isn't temperatures. It's mostly due to human activities, burning fossil fuels, making cement, clearing land. There is no known temperature excursion in history that would account for an increase in CO2 to a level greater than it has been in at least 800,000 years and likely several millions of years.
Also note, that historically CO2 follows Temps.... i.e. empirically, CO2 isn't a climate driver.
It goes two ways. Rising temperature causes higher CO2, and higher CO2 increases the temperature. During recent ice ages, the temperature changed first (and then got reinforced by the increase in CO2). Right now, the changes start with higher CO2.
Also the sun is in its hyperactive phase which is what is making the temperature seem hotter. This is all natural stuff blown out of the proportions by scientists who are environazis and want all humans to die.
It's all fossil fuels, not just coal. In the US both oil and natural gas produce more CO2 than coal. As long as countries like the US continue to use more and more oil and gas for transportation it will continue to grow faster. Americans driving is one of the largest contributors to CO2. Get some public transport or get of your fat asses and walk.
Well, the real arbiter isn't Curry, who seems to be at odds with most research, but the planet, and temperatures at the upper end of projections under RCP 8.5 (the emissions scenario we seem to be following), which tends to suggest the current models are broadly correct, unless we are about to be hit by significant negative feedbacks.
The plant can and has been way warmer than currently. Yes. But during none of these times human tried to survive on it, that's gonna be a new one.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Gonna need more proof on this one. With governments pushing for carbon taxes how do we know this is legit?
Sorry I cant sign off on this bullshit.
More proof on the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere? It's something that has been measured for over 100 years and been measured continuously for over 50 years. It's currently being measured in dozens of places around the world and they're all pretty much in agreement. It's not that difficult to measure so if there were any shenanigans going on it would be quickly called out.
As far as carbon taxes go you can pay now to help mitigate the effects of global warming and the climate change it causes or you can pay later for the massive amount of adaption that will have to take place for adjusting to the effects. It's possible the effects could get bad enough to cause the collapse of our global civilization. How much would that cost you?
Yes, it is a shame figures are based on sampling in just one location... hold on, they aren't.
Been said a million times before: CO2 is not a pollutant. It's needed for plants to grow. The current CO2 levels are so low it's amazing plants survive at all. We'd be much better off if CO2 levels tripled from current levels.
That's fine and dandy for you and your fellow plants, but we higher life forms are dependent on high oxygen and low carbon dioxide levels to survive.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
How about a carbon tax then? Surely that will help those remaining countries who aren't already transitioning away from coal. Assuming there are still any holdouts left.
The 'real problem' is that as people get richer, they start to consume and pollute more like rich people do. We can't have those other people polluting as much as we do in the West. We need a way to keep the poor people poor so that they don't waste carbon like the rich people are allowed to do. /sarcasm
And the CO2 reading couldn't have anything to do with current events. I mean ... a volcano ... couldn't skew readings. Right? And climatologists have never used skewed findings to fit their hypothesis - so we should never question them.
Considering that CO2 levels are being measured from dozens of places around the world, most of them not close to a volcano and all of them pretty much in agreement when you adjust for latitude I don't think it's an issue. Measuring the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is a relatively trivial process so if the measurements were being skewed the climate science deniers would be all over it.
Nice thing is America continues to drop our co2. Because we are shutting off coal plants and replacing with wind and nat gas. And as we s Move to EVs, our co2 should drop quickly.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
The west, except for Germany, south korea and Japan, continue to drop our co2. Kind of shoots that down.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
So obviously, what happened 800,000 years ago when the average CO2 levels were presumably higher than they are now?
What happened was that people didn't live in any of the places we have coastal cities now.
Monetary damage aside, relocating the billion humans who live less than 30 feet above water is going to cause trouble if the oceans were to rise that far.
There is ice enough to bring it up 200 feet.
Even if you aren't among those who has to move because of the water you will still be impacted by it.
People do what they need to survive and if humanitarian aid isn't given to those in need things will get really ugle really fast.
Perhaps that's why the models don't match the data, and run quite a bit hotter than actual data.
Actually climate models match the observations pretty well. Dr. Spencer needs to update his graph. Also, I'm curious how the model runs and the observations can all start from the same zero point in 1983. At the very least there should be a discrepancy between the HADCRUT and UAH starting points. So he shifted everything to start at the zero point in 1983 which is a pretty unscientific thing to do.
Climate model projections compared to observations
Yes 1 molecule out of 2500 molecules of air that absorbs at most 8% of the reflected IR is responsible for all that temperature increase.
Readings may be being taken across the world, but the article only says
The reading from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii finds that concentrations of the climate-warming gas averaged above 410 parts per million throughout April. The first time readings crossed 410 at all occurred on April 18, 2017, or just about a year ago.
So what is the average of the readings from all over the world versus the one at Mauna Loa?
Correlation does not equal causation you stupid libtard.
To bad we're not measuring CO2 in other places where volcanoes won't affect them. Oh wait... we are. You can find a list of them here.
NO! We are not going to pay you a carbon tax, get it into your heads.
Nope. The Sun has been pretty consistent. And even the Sun spots don't follow the temperatures on Earth.
https://astronomynow.com/2015/08/08/corrected-sunspot-history-suggests-climate-change-not-due-to-natural-solar-trends/
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/6
From 2000 to 2010 they ran an experiment measuring the effect of CO2 on temperature forcing from the surface. They found that the increase in CO2 levels of 22 ppm during that time caused and increase in forcing of 0.2 W/m^2 per decade (+/- 0.07 per decade).
Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010
Other greenhouse gases such as methane have been increasing too. Then because of the warming caused by non-condensing greenhouse gases the level of water vapor has also increased (it increases about 7% per degree C of warming).
All of that together is responsible for the warming but CO2 is the biggest part of it.
Yes 1 molecule out of 2500 molecules of air
The ratio between CO2 and the rest of the atmosphere (mostly O2 and N2) is irrelevant. What matter is the absolute amount of CO2 between the Earth's surface and outer space.
Try going outside and looking at the sun directly. Now look through a sheet of paper. On the path from the sun to your eyes, what's the ratio of molecules between paper and air ?
In a new report, scientists report higher CO2 levels now than ever since they were first measured in 1880. They further report that these are the highest levels for at least the past 800,000 years. QED: 1880 was actually over 800,000 years ago. I learn something new every day!
This is the core of the debate on global warming I think. Nobody knows exactly how much it will cost in the future, as it is a probabilistic cost. The costs today are real costs.
It also doesn't help that countries are all blaming each other instead of working together. Telling someone they are the problem generally causes them to stonewall. Give people good incentive - concrete incentive - to change, not threats or belittling comments... that's a better approach.
"There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
"Typical"* indoor ventilation is supposed to be designed to hold the indoor CO2 levels below 1,000 ppm, or, in more recent codes, designed to be no more than 700 ppm above the outdoor CO2 concentration.
But the CO2 measurement is just a surrogate for measurement of other indoor pollutants, and really only measures how much outdoor air you're providing compared to how much respiration is going on in the space.
*"Typical" in quotes, because most ventilation systems don't measure CO2 concentration, but are based on certain prescribed airflows, and also because some well-ventilated offices & classrooms will be well below 1,000 ppm and others will be well above.
Wow, the headline admits that the global climate is cyclical by pointing out that long before humans had any impact on the Earth, the Earth had been just as polluted as it is today.
34 million years, that's funny when oldest ice core is 2.7 million years.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know id there is a maximum depth of ice that we can have on earth?
Since Ice will melt under pressure (seriously, put an ice cube in a vice and turn the handle) it would seem to put a limit on how much ice could be stacked before it turns into liquid
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Not fast enough to make any meaningful difference.
So you want your own chemistry set? I think that ship has sailed in the US. :-p
Safety culture is introducing legislation to ban all chemical reactions.
My big old chemistry set was about as much fun as I ever had. Had a little out building in the back yard too use it in to boot. Want to get more people interested in STEM? maybe we shouldn't act like anything stronger than a vinegar/baking soda is too dangerous.
Our present path is allowing people to have different laws of physics based on political affiliation.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Try going outside and looking at the sun directly.
No, please don't do that!
Ice doesn't melt under pressure when temperature is below -25 C or so, but it will start to flow (think glaciers), which comes down to the same problem.
According to the article, there's a chance that some pockets of blue ice have older samples, but there's no easy method of finding them, because it all depends on the exact flow patterns.
That does nothing of the sort Windy. You aren't even remotely credible. Care to site a single source that says poor people produce more CO2 than Rich. Or even the same amount?
Because there are plenty that show I'm right. It's just common sense really.
More money more consumption.
Dropping from extremely high levels down to just very high levels isn't anything to be proud of. You are still way way higher than the average with a long long way to go. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
If the general population in the United States actually cared and felt this was an important issue - then the Senate, House and Oval office wouldn't be run by people who adamantly scream this is a liberal hoax.
They are busy appointing judges who will rule in favor of the corporate oligarchy doing exactly what we're seeing: disincentivizing renewable energy, disemboweling clean air/water laws, doling out tax breaks to polluters, attacking scientific processes and thought, defunding education to eliminate critical thinking skills... and they are winning. Only 1/2 of Americans believe global warming is real. http://news.gallup.com/poll/20...
And other BS/disproven ideas are on rise - like Immunizations cause autism and the growth of flat earthers... Till we value and fund education and critical thinking, we're lost.
Target levels are typically 700 ppm above the outdoor air CO2 levels. I'm looking at an old edition of ASHRAE 62.1, so they may have increased some of the requirements somewhat since then, but getting from 1100 ppm indoors (400 ppm outdoors + 700 ppm) to 600 ppm indoors would essentially more than triple the amount of outside air required. For most HVAC systems, that amount of outside air would significantly exceed 100% of the system design supply air. There's no way that would be practical in the heating or cooling seasons.
Because we're told time-and-again that it is the last 30 years that matter; thus if you're doing a report in 2013, you use the previous 30 years. From the publishing of that data the divergence has only continued. Most IPCC models use a 3.3 deg K sensitivity for CO2, but the actual data suggests about half that.
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"Typical"* indoor ventilation is supposed to be designed to hold the indoor CO2 levels below 1,000 ppm, or, in more recent codes, designed to be no more than 700 ppm above the outdoor CO2 concentration.
So then we agree that it's OK to 1000 to 1100 PPM CO2? At least, that's what the codes allow... So I'm trying to understand why going from 400 to 410 is a "sucker punch".
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I am tired of you reporting false non-scientific data!
Rich Vs poor us not the issue. The issue is what businesses and gov choose.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
So I'm trying to understand why going from 400 to 410 is a "sucker punch".
You must not be trying very hard if you're confusing respiratory effects with climate change.
This is why it is important to LABEL YOUR AXIS!!!!
IN FACT, your OWN link proves you are flat-out wrong - look at the first graph, it confirms exact this. It shows the Curry model as covering ~1 to ~2.5 - much different than you claim (1.1 to 4.45). Furthermore, reading the summary at Curry's site, you'll see that Curry estimates ~1.8 deg K sensitivity if we allow for unknown heat entrapment in the ocean by a mechanism that we don't understand. Using actual Argo (buoy) data and models which we do know, the sensitivity is ~1.6 deg K.
Now, you want to know how "Real Climate" is lying to you? They claim the models use values around 1 to 2.5 (from their misleading graph and supporting text); yet the IPCC itself says:
The current generation of GCMs[5] covers a range of equilibrium climate sensitivity from 2.1C to 4.4C (with a mean value of 3.2C; see Table 8.2 and Box 10.2)... The equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from the latest model version used by modelling groups have increased
Yes, the IPCC says the range of 2.1 to 4.4 deg K is too low and needs to be higher! Clearly "real climate" is simply shilling and effectively lying to cover the facts. I linked straight to the IPCC itself - it in no way says what "real climate" says. And the IPCC models simply do not correlate with actual real-world data.
So at the end of the day, what do you trust? Data or models?
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Data clearly shows shows climate change is non-anthropogenic so why all the fuss?
I'm speaking of the real data, not the data manipulated and altered by NOAA, NASA and AMOS.
Huh? The IPCC says the range of 2.1 to 4.4 deg K is too low, yet the data (as empirically calculated by Curry and others) shows the sensitivity to be less than half of that. And the actual models all run hot as confirmed with actual data (see the earlier link to Spencer et al). Current trends are well below what the IPCC models estimated.
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So you trust the models, rather than the data? Show a dataset (one that is not "adjusted" every year, and still leaves the actual heat peak back in the 1930s) that correlates with the models. You won't find one, unless it is so massaged that the big peak back in the 1930s is gone. And note my signature quote - that's from Phil Jones, no AGW skeptic himself. If the dataset you're using doesn't show those two periods as basically the same - it's been massaged and tweaked to yield a pre-determined answer, rather than stand on its own in opposition to the desired models...
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I had a old diesel car that was highly fuel efficient and had relatively low CO2 output but have switched to a 'highly efficient' petrol car that is not efficient at all compared to my diesel one (It gets 380 miles out of a 40 litre tank vs the 600 miles the diesel got out of 35 litres) and also produces about 50% more CO2.
Why?
Because my diesel car was Euro 3 and subject to a crippling daily charge to be in the zone where I live.
They need to figure out what the hell they want to happen instead of flip-flopping between one and another. We can't all afford to go out and buy gigantic short range electric cars at the drop of a hat, or have the infrastructure to store and charge them at our homes.
Usually the changes have been gradual such that life had time to adjust.
Well except for the fact that the 1.2C rise in the last ~150 years has just happened to coincide with the greatest global improvements in life expectancies and standards of living the world has ever seen.
When those metrics start declining I'll worry. I doubt that will be anytime soon, doomsayers notwithstanding.
You are mixing up the numbers for TCR and ECS.
The numbers I mentioned (1.1 to 4.45) are Curry et al's ECS (table 1, top row), just like the 2.1 to 4.4 range from IPCC. Not that much different, except Curry's have a bit wider error bar at the bottom end of the range.
We're all dead now.
Show a dataset (one that is not "adjusted" every year, and still leaves the actual heat peak back in the 1930s)
The 1930's peak was local to the US. We're talking about global temperatures.
So obviously, what happened 800,000 years ago when the average CO2 levels were presumably higher than they are now?
Actually, that's just the end point of the dataset they used. So CO2 levels are higher than what their entire dataset tells them. No particular event, just ran out of data that they had at the ready. So I guess a more accurate headline might be, "CO2 levels higher than all 800,000 years of data that a group of scientist have access to." It's a bit wordy though.
Everything else is staying the same. (and the attribution of the temperature increase is more complex than this: there are greenhouse gases even less common than CO2 which have a much larger effect per molecule).
Going from 2.9K to 290K isn't mostly due to greenhouse gases, but delta changes on 290K are, and the human-level effects of even small changes in climate (on physics Kelvin scale) are big.
And finally, a sort of WAG guess based on 1 of 2500 molecules is rather ignorant and useless compared to the computations and experiments scientists have done over literally a century on this specific problem, using everything known about electromagnetism, chemistry and quantum mechanics.
The 1930's peak was local to the US.
Even more accurate: the heatwaves in the 1930's were mostly limited to the month of July, and only really severe in a small portion of the US.
You can experiment with global maps here: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gis...
Pick a range of years and months, and make a map.
When those metrics start declining I'll worry
https://edition.cnn.com/2017/1...
Well it's not just a matter of temperature. A more pressing matter about the measurements and the recent change is the temperature in relation to time. Typically a shift in global temperature average is on a scale of thousands of years. However, the most recent event of warming is occurring at a pace of only a few hundred years. In the slower process, living creatures have time to adapt to the change. It is feared that if the change is too rapid, living creatures will not be able to adapt fast enough via natural processes.
One data set hasn't completely smoothed it away, and still shows the spike during the 30s for the Northern and Southern hemispheres... That would be global, yes?
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Forgive me if I go with common sense and facts backed up by evidence, rather than your gut feelings.
Let's just say you don't have the best track record...
Looks decreasing to me:
https://knoema.com/atlas/Germa...
https://knoema.com/atlas/Unite...
No, I'm not mixing them up, RealClimate claims the Curry states ~1 to ~2.5, so in that case they must be referencing TCR - which is thus what I talked about. If you want to talk about ECS, the IPCC (as I linked above) believes it is much higher than than 2.1 to 4.4 per their own words. Yet no data supports such a conclusion...
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What happens when we went from 400 to 410? The GP - way back, about 5 posts ago - said it was a "sucker punch". So what did the increase from 400 to 410 sucker punch humanity, if in fact we usually live at levels quite a ways above that?
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Which data set specifically ? I opened all the graphs on that page, but didn't see anything where 30's would be higher than modern times.
The global surface temp anomaly peaked at 0.21C in 1944, and peaked at 0.99C in 2016.
I agree with you WindBourne, China's businesses and government are both better than America's ;)
If I'm following you right and that's why America is far dirtier... not because they are richer and consume/waste more...
RealClimate claims the Curry states ~1 to ~2.5, so in that case they must be referencing TCR
Yes, they clearly explain that in the article. It's even written under the diagram.
Yet no data supports such a conclusion...
See Curry et al, table 1, top row. Range of 1.1 to 4.45 for ECS.
Most data models smooth the peak in 1930s; I wasn't claiming it was higher than today, just that it happened in the 30s, then we had significant cooling until the mid 70s, then heat again. A lot of models and data smooth out - eliminate that peak in the 1930s. Look at the hemispherical data from GISS, you'll see a peak - worldwide - up to ~1941, then a drop until ~1975.
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"hurr durr it never rains in my office and I haven't died so why would it matter if it never rains outside? I'm a moron durr hurr"
So I'm trying to understand
You win Lynwood, your joke is much funnier than mine.
The cooling period between 1940-1970 was most likely due to increased pollution from sulphur and nitrous oxides. Then we started using low-sulphur fuels, installing catalytic converters on cars, and scrubbers on power plants to clean all that up. All those regulations helped clean the air, but also allowed more sunlight to hit the planet.
Volcanoes are almost a measurement error these days.
I think he is referring to Kilauea, which is only 20 miles from Mauna Loa, where these CO2 measurements were taken.
But Kilauea wasn't erupting much in April. The new vents are not in Kilauea's main caldera, but are another 20 miles east in Pahoa, and the prevailing winds blow from NE to SW, which is out to sea, not up the slopes of Mauna Loa, which towers more than 9000 feet above the summit of Kilauea.
Kilauea has been erupting since 1983, just not constant gorgeous fountains. I grew up on O`ahu and still remember warnings about acid rain and vog.
I'm not sure that's true. Our data resolution becomes worse the farther back you go. We're more likely to miss large, temporary shifts. It stands to reason that might also lead to trouble detecting how sharp a shift is the farther back you go.
Just because Mr. Science Man says we have never seen this type of shift in the record, does not mean he is saying the record shows there has never been such a shift.
All current trends are at the upper edge of the corridor the IPCC is publishing, since decades.
No idea what you want to claim here. The IPCC is downplaying the warming problem since decades.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
I would like to point out that the geologists says that CO2 followed temperature in the past, it didn't lead temperature changes, but followed.
Obviously we are in uncharted territory, where we have CO2 LEADING temperature in our models.... Which, as the gemologist concludes, means our models are not necessarily wrong, but are also not provably right.
Which begs the question... If what we are projecting is based on unproven models, how much confidence can we actually have about what the projections say? I wish I knew the answer to that... What's obvious to me though is that ANYBODY who thinks they know for sure, is making claims w/o the proof necessary.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
Apart from the fact America is not global, I don't see the connection to climate change.
I suppose it is possible that some people are so worried about it they become heroin addicts.
So you trust the models, rather than the data? Show a dataset (one that is not "adjusted" every year, and still leaves the actual heat peak back in the 1930s) that correlates with the models. You won't find one, unless it is so massaged that the big peak back in the 1930s is gone. And note my signature quote - that's from Phil Jones, no AGW skeptic himself. If the dataset you're using doesn't show those two periods as basically the same - it's been massaged and tweaked to yield a pre-determined answer, rather than stand on its own in opposition to the desired models...
I trust the data. I know people who are climate scientists, and understand the data. I know the USA isn't the whole world.
Let's check some more...
https://knoema.com/atlas/China...
And as China got richer the CO2 goes up...
Notice also that America, richer and higher than Germany, which is higher and richer than China, also higher and richer than India.
It's like there is some obvious pattern that Windy just refuses to see.
https://knoema.com/atlas/India...
India also goes up as it gets richer...still much lower though, because it's still much poorer
It's almost as if developing countries increase their CO2 levels up towards rich country levels, as their economies develop and the people become richer.
Can't have those poor people being like you though can we. It's bad for the environment.
Re: Duh (+1)
Tablizer
Why ignore the Boy Scout motto: "be prepared"?
Because the Boy Scouts are (were) sexist misogynist patriarchal toxic manhood you insensitive clod!
They might smooth it maybe because it was local and temporary, not an annual average. If it was hotter in the 1930s, why is Arctic melting such an issue now, but wasn't in the 30s, or is Gore secretly using a space laser to melt it, working with Musk, I presume?
The quote was "Usually the changes have been gradual such that life had time to adjust. Humans especially may be sucker-punched by relatively rapid change"
The sucker punch will be the change in global climate (the word "may" indicates were talking about a future event), caused by rapid increase from 280 to 410 ppm, and showing no signs of slowing down.
What happens when we went from 400 to 410?
Who cares ? You brought that up.
Norway. Richer and lower. Australia. Poorer and higher.
I don't see the connection to climate change.
Right. Neither did the increase in life expectancy. So, it's kinda puzzling why you were waiting for the numbers to turn around.
Has been in service for a very long time, more than 50 years IIRC. It's there precisely to keep local emission sources from skewing the results.
When they say that the CO2 levels are the highest ever, that's not one isolated reading made yesterday! That's just the latest of more than 50 years of measurements. And those measurements have been ticking upwards like a metronome for more than 50 years.
There is no sudden "burst" of CO2. The local volcanic eruption has does not "back date" 50 years of measurement history. Trying to put any blame on the recent volcanism is a complete misunderstanding of what is going on here. The announcements made in this case are solid. In fact the trend line is so well-established, they could have made this announcement back in the 1970's, and simply extrapolated the 2018 CO2 level using a ruler.
You are right. I was misrembering relative as absolute.
Is that you Donald?
No model is provably right. However the behavior has a solid scientific explanation based on feedback loops and is not controversial. https://skepticalscience.com/c...
Chris Mesterharm
What has happened since the increase from 280 to 410? Specifics, please. What has been the sucker punch?
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Data shows it was global and nearly a decade in duration.
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Born and raised in the southeast U.S. mean you don't know what hot is. 136 degrees even when it is dry is too hot. Hell, here in the Southwest our signs actually melt because it gets so hot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Just about every protein unique (or largely confined) to the human species is presently at its highest level in the last 800,000 years; and probably another 10 million industrial compounds, of which maybe 100,000 were intentional, and the other 99% being random and undesired by products around the margins of the defined process (even the smallest amounts discarded instead of destroyed would lead to record-setting environmental levels over a billion-year historical time scale).
What makes CO2 special is that we worked a little harder to crack this nut.
Current cumulative industrial emissions of CO2 is presently on the order of 33,000 million metric tonnes (Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1850–2030). That's 33 petagrams in base metric units, once you collect all the distributed zeros together.
How many chemicals exist on planet earth in excess of 30 Pg?
The entire earth's biosphere clocks in at 1–4 Eg. We can start by eliminating any biological chemical that accounts for less than 1% of the entire biosphere.
Goodbye, glucose, at 3–8 g per human body. ATP? Nope. Glycogen? Closer, but still no cigar. Cellulose stands a chance, if we're generous about counting molecular D-glucose units, rather than actual molecules. Perhaps one lipid, the most common chain length of all fats?
And what if earth had blessed us with ten (or one hundred) Middle East oil fields, where gasoline practically gushes out in finished form? The newly acidic oceans would be halfway sterile of yummy megafauna, but fertilizer for use in terrestrial agriculture would have been practically free.
Not better, not worse; just different.
But cross your fingers God keeps his promise about not sending a second flood, because Noah 2.0's ocean pantry would be exceedingly slim pickings. Yes, a merciful God wipes the slate clean before you waltz off the boat, procreate vigorously, and then discover mass geological reserves of buried hydrocarbons to rival the entirety of God's respiring endowment.
How much is too much? 3 Pg? 30 Pg? 300 Pg? 3 Eg? 30 Eg? Do stop me when your anthropogenic spidey sense reaches its in-built marble ark threat-detection threshold.
No model is provably right.
You might want to rephrase that. There ARE provable models, where we understand the math and conditions well enough to predict the future with in a known level of error. We have a lot of experimentally proven models which we can rely on for things like lift/drag for an aircraft wings using fluid dynamics, precipitation run off volumes from urban developments, short term weather forecasting, aircraft fuel consumption and more.
Perhaps you mean "No climate model that has a provable amount of error used for climate change studies"? I'll agree with that.
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We let volcanos release 600 million tons of CO2 every year, we even let the CO2 release rates increase greatly in last few decades.
https://www.livescience.com/40451-volcanic-co2-levels-are-staggering.html
Who knew Trump was causing it decades ago?
Iâ(TM)m sure the species will be fine. But civilisation has proven to be delicate, and theyâ(TM)ve collapsed in the past due to natural climate changes.
OH No!
Weâ(TM)re gonna die unless we make Al Gore a billionaire and Bill Gates a Trillionaire
Citation?
What has been the sucker punch?
The sentence "Humans especially may be sucker-punched by relatively rapid change" does not refer to something that has already happened.
You need to work on your reading comprehension.
Yes, I know that life expectancy has gone up. The puzzling bit is why you are bringing it up in a discussion about CO2.
Here you go - same as I linked above. Look at the "Annual mean temperature change for hemispheres". You'll see it shows up in both hemispheres. Much like the Little Ice Age, and the Medieval Warm Period - worldwide phenomenon.
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Time to adjust and adapt? Ha. Like the dinosaurs and millions of other species? Wiped out?
-- "I'm not in a hurry; I'm in Hawaii." The Homeless Guy
What will be the sucker punch, then? If the rise form 280 to 410 has been a nothingburger - what about the rise from 410 to 540?
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The natural systems don't care where the CO2 came from. It just increases vegetation growth whether the CO2 came from a '71 Ford Pinto exploding and burning or from a new herd of moose exhaling CO2.
Human CO2 production from industrialization simply accelerates the natural cycle to produce the resources for increased population just as industrialization itself promotes an acceleration in population growth.
Of course, I can see why authoritarian governments would want food to become even more scarce by preventing the otherwise naturally-occurring changes that would bring about a more-plentiful food supply. Starving populations are much easier to control.
Strat
Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
of this planet. Move along, nothing to see here but BeauHD in the daily bid to push the agenda.
You need to get out more. Anybody who lives in Hawaii knows you are wrong. Trade winds blow more or less, NE to SW, as you said. Now, look at a map. Embarrassed yet? You should be.
-- "I'm not in a hurry; I'm in Hawaii." The Homeless Guy
Assuming noon on equator (shortest path)... 50,000:1 ?
* 1cm2 column of air has a mass of 1.03Kg, with 29g/mol for 'air' = 35.5 mol
* A4 paper ((21cm X 29.7cm) 623cm2) is between 5 and 10g, and cellulose is 162g/mol = 0.3 to 0.6 mol for the sheet of paper
* 623 cm2 of air = 22,116 mol
So between 74,000:1 and and 37,000:1
That's a GISTEMP graph by month for 1880 to prsent, not a hemispheric breakdown. If you download the CSV, though, it quite clearly shows the 1930s were cooler than present, e.g. July +1 to +1.3 over annual average baseline then, +1.7 to 2.0 now.
CLICK ON THE LINKS BELOW THE GRAPH! The one labeled "Annual mean temperature change for hemispheres" and you'll see exactly what happened. EXACTLY. Then read back up above what I stated (which is NOTHING like you are talking about, today being hotter or cooler than back then). Please!
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Climate models are generally successful in that observations are within the range of uncertainty.
Climate model projections compared to observations
Measurements could be tainted because there's been a lot of volcanic activity in Hawaii.
Just pointing out that CO2 has not been a significant detriment to the welfare of the human species up until today, May 7.
Call me when it is.
I don't know what the average around the world would be but it's probably a little lower than 410. The further south you go the lower the level of CO2. At the South Pole levels are about 3-4 ppm lower than Mauna Loa so not a huge difference. Even though those other places they're taking the readings from may be a bit different than Mauna Loa they're all changing at about the same rate.
I understand why they used a 30 year time frame. But shifting all of model projections so they all start at the same point is misleading. What if a projection actually showed a temperature below what the UAH showed in 1983? The graph may show how they've changed relative to each other since 1983 but it hides how close to each other the findings might be.
Even if the climate sensitivity is as low as you hope it is the world is still warming, just a little slower.
Oops, for some reason, the PNG version displayed readably to me in Firefox. The axes are labeled, it's just not clearly visible. Is the SVG version better at least?
Ezekiel 23:20
Only to those idiots living below 300 feet in elevation, I'm pretty sure.
What, you didn't foresee the inability to combat climate change and choose the location of your house based on elevation above sea level?
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
I guess I'm OK with that definition of provable. My instinct is to reserve provable for math, and your original statement didn't give a lot of context...
That's not what I meant, but it's a reasonable point. Should we throw out all science that doesn't fit your definition of provable? For such a strong reaction, one would need to give a much more precise definition of provable. Do we need to do "controlled" experiments? How often do they need to be repeated? Is evolution provable? Is astrophysics provable? How about science that deals with the human brain? I'm guessing good, useful, and honest science can be done without reaching your standard of provable by combining a range of evidence. I would say that this includes current research into climate.
Chris Mesterharm
When ice covered most of North America and starving was a fact of life. :)
Global warming is likely to cause severe water and food stress for humans, some regions are likely to become too hot & humid for humans to survive going outside.
And likely, some areas are going to become nicer/more habitable.
Which're those places?
There're bound to be winners and losers.
If you only ever hear about the losers... I smell something
In order to play the science game, we need the necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis to start off with. To wit,
1) a list of observations, which if observed, mean a hypothesis is false;
2) a logical argument that the lack of those falsifications means that a hypothesis must be favored over all others (including the null).
While playing with models while dressing in white lab coats may look "sciencey", it doesn't become scientific until it starts following the scientific method - and that means having a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement.
Now, there are those that would suggest that we can avoid the need for the scientific method, and simply use Bayesian analysis to reach the truth, but any statistical method that avoids the cornerstone of falsifiability opens up the world to making astrology scientific, simply based on probability distributions. There's a great opportunity for interesting discovery with Bayesian methods, but a lot more risk of false positives. In fact, given enough creativity, the false positive can be actively mined for.
My mistake. I see it now. It shows NH temperatures diverging from SH in the 1930s, so still disagrees with you. SH temperatures look flat. Still lower than today. But I will concede that the NH rise was sustained. But then a rise, given industrialisation, tends to support the CC models.
Angry Teen? I'll have you know I'm a member of the Socialist Elite actually.
There may be one, or two, countries in the world where carbon taxes are used to 'mitigate the effects of climate change.' My guess is that almost all of them just see it as slop for the trough.
I thought it was more the going from 280 to 410 in like 130 years. But then again, you have a point; 400 to 410 in one year is 10 times that rate.
Wait, what? The BLUE line? You don't see -0.32 deg C for 1935, and +0.18 deg C for 1940? You don't see that big hump from 1939 to 1942?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Sure, but they were prepared sexist misogynist patriarchal pigs :-)
Table-ized A.I.
Same thing ;-)
Tardigrades living in space, are you a star trek discovery writer? Well done on the pun, intentional or otherise.
i dont see nasa moving ksc due to sea level rises so even they dont consider it a risk
tsunami due to 9.x is 100% more likely to kill millions , esp Cal.
bs, its been 400 since y2k, .4 py inc
Liberty freedom are no1, not dicks in suits.
http://www.e-publications.org/...">Here is a better paper explaining the difficulty of temperature reconstructions and their general inaccuracy, in case you found my arguments unauthoritative.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Good. Lets go with common sense and facts.
Here we see your favorite of emissions per capita
Your nation jumps from 1.97 in 1990 to 7.45 in 2016. IOW, you increased 400%. EU-28 is was at 9 in 1990 and went down to 6.75 in 2016. EU-28 decreased ~ 25%.
America was ~20 in 1990, and went down to 15.5 in 2016. IOW, America decreased 25%.
Last year, CHina went up again, while EU stayed flat and America dropped.
When you speak of rich nations, I think that you have to include not just AMerica, but EU-28, Canada, Austrlia, and to be fair, CHina. BUT, CHina continues to grow their co2 emissions and now exceeds EU's per capita. In the next 5 years, there is a great chance that AMerica and CHina will have about the same per capita, which is NOT a good thing. We will probably cross at around 12.
CHina's growth continues due to building of new coal plants. In spite of your BS posting, here we speak about last year where CHina increased coal use by 5% (and that is from Chinese gov): But China’s National Development and Reform Commission released detailed data this week showing that the country’s electricity consumption jumped 6.6 percent last year. Wind and solar energy grew quickly, but not nearly enough to meet the extra demand. Electricity generation from the burning of fossil fuels, almost entirely coal, rose 5.2 percent in China last year.
Wait until CHina REALLY starts moving towards EVs. That is going to drive their CO2 way up.
As to the future, CHina IS doing 700 new coal plants, with more 350 in CHina alone. The rest are around the globe, but still pushed, financed, and built by CHina.
COmmon sense and these facts PROVE that CHina is on the WRONG COURSE. China is increasing CO2 in their own nation as well as others.
In addition, most of the west continues on the RIGHT course. America and most of the west has stopped building new coal plants. Germany, continues to stay with Asia and build out new ones, but will probably be forced to drop those.
Common sense and facts says STOP BUILDING NEW COAL PLANTS. In addition, it says to quit defending it.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
The only carbon tax I'm aware of currently is the Province of British Columbia, Canada. It's working pretty well for them.
Good news for the plants then. The higher the CO2 level - the better plants will grow.
Of course it's not directly $1 equals x increase in CO2. There will be some variation based on what the people are willing to sacrifice. Don't get worked up between the difference between 60k 70k and 80k for already developed countries. Check the countries like China at 10k India at 2k, any other developing countries you want to choose.
Or are you really claiming Norway and Australia are developing countries?
It's not a secret every one already knows this.
It's the whole reason people are worried about poor countries developing and polluting like rich countries. If they didn't develop, there wouldn't be a problem. For rich countries anyway. But how to explain to the poor countries that they can't do exactly what you do? That is the problem.
the IPCC (as I linked above) believes it is much higher than than 2.1 to 4.4 per their own words.
No, they don't say that at all. Read the rest of the sentence you partially quoted (bolded for your pleasure):
The equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from the latest model version used by modelling groups have increased [examples], decreased [examples] or remained roughly unchanged [examples] compared to the TAR.
The difference in PPP median income between, say, the UK and Australia is small, but CO2 per capita is a factor of two, so there are more factors involved than just income. India to UK, you have a point.
Somebody did, but then they looked at the isotope ratios and discovered yet another way to demonstrate that burning fossil fuels is the cause of increased CO2.
I see the SH blue line flat line from 1920 to 1939, and the NH red line increase. Your contention was that warming in the 1930s was global, but your own source shows it was not. A sudden blip in the SH line in 1940 is irrelevant, as it is too short term to be climate, as opposed to a short-lived PDO. You're an intelligent enough person to be able to reasonably understand climate change, and there are a lot of good resources out there, and I could help identify some if it helps.
Totally agree Australia and the US are far more polluting than EU countries of similar income, and should do much more. Developing countries are still smaller than all of them.
Good. Lets go with common sense and facts.
Good, lets.
Here we see your favorite of emissions per capita Your nation jumps from 1.97 in 1990 to 7.45 in 2016. IOW, you increased 400%.
AS IT GOT RICHER !!
As developing countries develop, they develop into rich countries. And the pollution goes up to rich country levels. It's not rocket science Windy.
EU-28 is was at 9 in 1990 and went down to 6.75 in 2016. EU-28 decreased ~ 25%. America was ~20 in 1990, and went down to 15.5 in 2016. IOW, America decreased 25%.
You are right, the EU is much better than America.
Last year, CHina went up again, while EU stayed flat and America dropped.
And yet America is still twice China. They must have been quite bad if they have been decreasing for years, China has been increasing for years, yet they are still more than double China's level.
When you speak of rich nations, I think that you have to include not just AMerica, but EU-28, Canada, Austrlia, and to be fair, CHina. BUT, CHina continues to grow their co2 emissions and now exceeds EU's per capita. In the next 5 years, there is a great chance that AMerica and CHina will have about the same per capita, which is NOT a good thing. We will probably cross at around 12.
You must be just about the only person in the world who thinks Chinese are as rich as all those other countries you mention. Usually that means you are wrong...I thought you wanted common sense and facts?
China's CO2 increases have levelled off, it's very unlikely they will reach 12. Show some facts and common sense to suggest this will be the case.
Lets play along though, and assume they both reach 12. Why is it suddenly a problem for China to be identical to US levels? If it's good for the US to be at 12, why not China too? Oh I forgot, you are an entitled dirtbag. America is just assumed to be allowed to pollute so much more.
Snip all you bullshit lies already addressed elsewhere
COmmon sense and these facts PROVE that CHina is on the WRONG COURSE. China is increasing CO2 in their own nation as well as others.
Of course they are. Malnourished people (developing countries) will eat more food (use more CO2) when they can afford it. Obese people (Americans, Australians, etc) and overweight (some EU countries) should be the last people to complain that some one else is eating too much food. Lose more weight fatty.
In addition, most of the west continues on the RIGHT course. America and most of the west has stopped building new coal plants. Germany, continues to stay with Asia and build out new ones, but will probably be forced to drop those.
So pick a level for CO2 you are happy for people to use. It's just about guaranteed that China will get there before America will.
Common sense and facts says STOP BUILDING NEW COAL PLANTS. In addition, it says to quit defending it.
It's a good thing China's coal use peaked in 2013 then isn't it.
Common sense would notice where the actual problem was, rich peoples lifestyles, instead of focusing on coal all the time.
1.3 to 1.6 deg K
Pet peeve: There are no degrees Kelvin, only Kelvin.
1.3 to 1.6 K
We have seen such shifts in the record. At least twice. Both times they accompanied mass extinctions.
A safer(not looking at the Sun) analogy is fog. It's only ~42ppm, yet I can't see very far through it. 420ppm of CO2 is effectively a dense fog for IR.
CO2 only absorbs about 8% IR so using your fog analogy we're talking about a fog with 8% opacity which is damn near invisible. I wouldn't consider that "dense".
This AC's claim is false.
Plant leaves have pockets in their surfaces called stomata, within which the actual gas exchanges take place. The concentration of stomata (count per sq.mm of surface) varies with atmospheric CO2 concentration - which has been verified in greenhouses.
In the fossil record, you get fossil plants. You need good preservation - which is uncommon, but not unknown. From stomata counts on different genera of plants, you can estimate the level of CO2 concentration in which those plants grew.
Yes, the error-bars are looser than for an IR or GCMS measurement of CO2 concentration on a mountain today. But we can know what the atmospheric CO2 concentration was at enough points in the past to construct curves of CO2 concentration against time.
All of which has been well reported in the geological press for literally decades (it was new to the text books when I read it in 1980). So the AC is either disingenuous or ignorant.
Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
my bad. I misread "the first time it crossed 410 at all...". Thanks for the correction!
Only those living below 1700 feet.
https://geology.com/records/biggest-tsunami.shtml
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
Hey guy, it is. The evidence is largely statistical, but it's there. It's also not enough to really bother well-off Westerners, except with refugees. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing, and temperatures continue to go up.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
At least you're honest about being a socialist scumbag.
Again I'm amused that my posts were downvoted to oblivion by leftist sheep while the puerile replies were not marked down for being ad hominem garbage.
As expected. Afraid to debate. Got nothing to say. Down vote!
Been hearing for decades now that the sky has already fallen. Yawn. Wake me up when any of this stuff actually happens.
Thank god they got rid of those SUV 800,000 years ago
Whats ironic is that the recent times where its been warmer, like the MWP, the amount of food produced went up dramatically.
And please, how come noone seriously looks at the solar cycles, which had a much greater correlation to temperatures both recent and geological, as opposed to models and predictions from the likes of the IPCC that have a >97% inaccuracy rate.
These articles crack me up.
Actually, we have. only about 900 years ago it started warming and got much warmer than it is today.
the side effect of that warming is that agriculture, food production, went up dramatically.
Take fog, multiply by 0.08, then 10.0 and you're left with.. Fog. CO2 does drop about 3% every 300 meters. After a kilometer, it would be 90% what it was at the ground. Mostly unchanged. I'm sure it's effectively opaque. I know if I was to look through several milometers of fog, I'd see nothing but fog.
You can't even keep your lies straight... Where did the other 50 go !!
The consensus is that it's probably too late, so of course people like you won't ever accept that you are wrong. Accepting that you're wrong means accepting that some time after you die there will be massive global food shortages because you kept voting for politicians who deny science in exchange for oil money.
Yeah, you'll never accept that you're directly responsible for the doom of our entire species. We get that. Just shut the hell up and let the rest of us as least try to stop it from happening
The planet isn't some civ game, you can't just move an entire country of people halfway across the globe to the new green area
Greenland being habitable or the American southwest getting what doesn't do anything about the billions of people living in areas that are slowly getting fucked
Ugh, it's because they have looked at that and there is no correlation and you're actually just making shit up
So you're an idiot and a liar, great combo!
If you're talking about planetary events like meteor impacts, that doesn't seem super relevant.
The EU and Australia have them too. And perhaps more.
Australia had one but it got repealed when the ALP won the next election. It was only in force for a couple of years. I've heard of cap-and-trade being used in the EU but not a straight up carbon tax.
Cap and trade is a carbon tax - certainly the costs of the trading are passed on to consumers.