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Satellite Data Strongly Suggests That China, Russia and Other Authoritarian Countries Are Fudging Their GDP Reports (washingtonpost.com)

Christopher Ingraham, writing for The Washington Post: China, Russia and other authoritarian countries inflate their official GDP figures by anywhere from 15 to 30 percent in a given year, according to a new analysis of a quarter-century of satellite data. The working paper, by Luis R. Martinez of the University of Chicago, also found that authoritarian regimes are especially likely to artificially boost their gross domestic product numbers in the years before elections, and that the differences in GDP reporting between authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries can't be explained by structural factors, such as urbanization, composition of the economy or access to electricity. Martinez's findings are derived from a novel data source: satellite imagery that tracks changes in the level of nighttime lighting within and between countries over time.

175 comments

  1. Christopher Ingraham texted me dick pics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    If I invented a cheap machine that did all your housework and fixed your car for free, GDP would fall. Despite the fact that everybody's lives would be permanently improved.

    Say a person saves his money and lends it to people in another country. He's creating wealth for himself. The other country is getting further into debt. Maybe the money is spent frivolously or invested in a soon-to-collapse bubble. Or it's spent on productive investments. Either way, the effect on GDP is the same. And it goes to the borrowing country, not the one accumulating assets (unless the borrower makes successful investments).

    As individuals, trying to maximize our own GDP would mean spending every dollar we get and avoiding investments that could reduce how much we need to spend to live our lives. That's the opposite of our best interests.

    1. Re:Christopher Ingraham texted me dick pics by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      GDP rant aside, the fact that they are cheating it is the news here - not how good or bad GDP is something reasonable to judge an economy by. If another measure was commonly used as a yardstick, they would likely cheat that instead.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    2. Re:Christopher Ingraham texted me dick pics by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      Nothing to do with GDP, this story is a straight up frothy beat up, attack Russia and China story and nothing else, the lamest shite science and the lamest shite journalism, why, https://www.greentechmedia.com.... So what the fuck are they even talking about. A measure of street lighting is not a measure of GDP, more a measure of tax levels and willingness to pay for street lighting.

      GDP is not a reliable measure of anything because it is gross, heh, heh and not nett. You can be generating all the revenue you want but if you are generating it at a loss, you will go bankrupt. Street lighting is more a measure of taxation, those with higher taxes are more likely to have well lit cities, those skimping out to keep taxes low and basically privatise the profits and socialise the losses will have low levels of lighting.

      Here is a more sound question, what fucking government doesn't fudge the numbers at election time, answer, fucking NONE. They must have been masturbating when they wrote this story because that would be the only excuse for the level of froth in it.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    3. Re:Christopher Ingraham texted me dick pics by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      what fucking government doesn't fudge the numbers at election time,

      People are people, all over the world. There's nothing more evil or corrupt about a Chinese or Russian person.

      With that said, some systems take this into account and some don't. If you can lie and get away with it, a lot more people will lie. Sure, some will still lie in societies where the data is open to inspection - but it's going to be a lot less prevalent. In the US you can say "Donald Trump is full of shit" and you can do so on national TV. You can show charts and info-graphics showing why he's full of shit. You won't convince everyone, but the data is at least out there. Pull that shit in China or Russia and your life is over. Worst case, prison - best case, you simply lose everything. As a result, the leaders can say whatever they want without repercussion. If they set a target of 7% growth, well then there is going to be 7% growth. If Trump wants 7% growth, he can claim it all he wants but the bureaucrats and economists won't toe the line.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  2. Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by JoeyRox · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Real GDP is the net of domestic output minus price changes, ie inflation. Look into how our inflation measurements have been contorted over the years and you'll see how it's "grossly" under-reported, thus GDP is overstated.

    1. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No no no! It's just "those countries" that manipulate their currency, manipulate and twist GDP and unemployment numbers, are rife with corruption, have a government full of lies, have intelligence agencies function as the country's drug kingpin (heard this about N. Korea's central intelligence ministry recently on NPR without a hint of irony), let the people with money completely barrel over the rest of the people. IT's NOTHING like that in the grand ol' US and A. If you don't love her, leave her.

    2. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by ITRambo · · Score: 2, Informative

      What you wrote is not how GDP is calculated. Finance 501 taught me that GDP is the money supply times the velocity of money (how often the average dollar is turned over per year). That's it. The US simply prints more money to show an improving GDP. This was done after 2008 to make the economy appear better than it was. In reality the velocity fell by 50%. So, the money supply was doubled. We Americas went about out merry ways thinking that all is well and getting better. Any country that uses fiat money can play this game, Russia and China included/

    3. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The fact is that they can, and therefore they will. That's because power cannot be contained.

    4. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by AvitarX · · Score: 1

      People lways say that, but when I look at my own life, it seems pretty accurate.

      There is perhaps an argument that it under weights necessities vs luxuries and doesn't account for the expected baseline quality of life (as luxuries become closer to utilities in practice), but the numbers seem to check out for me.

      --
      Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
    5. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 1

      Not just that. Government spending is inexplicably part of the GDP, so when the economy tanked so many years ago we had a "stimulus" package. A stimulus which magically offset the actual drop in the GDP, making our economy look somewhat steady.

    6. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A lot of our GDP right now is based on copies of IP, which should be measured at 0.

    7. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ummm finance 501? WTF

      OK. Apparently you missed that money supply is NOT really the currency printed. It is the sum of deposits and other money pools that allow for transactions. One could say "AHA! You said it wasn't printed money but cash in a register or bank vault is a money pool for transactions!" Well, this money is not entirely insignificant but it is very small and very constant compared to the amount of deposits. The actual currency printed is only a vehicle to facilitate what is really used to determine the money supply...deposits.

      So the government boosting the money supply is even more sinister than you describe. It is the ability to increase deposits without much or any interest payment required except it is only selected deposits that are increased. Not your deposits but bank deposits that the bank can then charge interest to access. Basically this replaces the requirement of banks to make good decisions in order to increase their deposits by successful loans with a government giveaway that rewards failure with vast wealth and future economic control. It's out to the loser goes the spoils banking system we now have. Brought to you by GW Bush and the deregulation that lead to the banking collapse.

    8. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Green+Mountain+Bot · · Score: 1

      It's included because those dollars are in fact spent, and do in fact end up in people's pockets.

    9. Re: Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      velocity of money(how fast the money travels after you threw it away)

      FTFU

    10. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1, Insightful

      ...after being taken from other people's pockets, of course...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    11. Re: Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So why in 2008 after the housing crash, banks ended up being a necessary "too big to fail" utility propped up by none other than an Obama administration? Of course, I equally blame congress too for that as well.

    12. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What you wrote is not how GDP is calculated. Finance 501 taught me that GDP is the money supply times the velocity of money (how often the average dollar is turned over per year). That's it. The US simply prints more money to show an improving GDP. This was done after 2008 to make the economy appear better than it was. In reality the velocity fell by 50%. So, the money supply was doubled. We Americas went about out merry ways thinking that all is well and getting better. Any country that uses fiat money can play this game, Russia and China included/

      And yet, we had almost no inflation during that period. And don't say there was, but the numbers didn't show it, because I lived through it and prices were amazingly stable. If they hadn't "printed money", we might have had deflation. I'm very glad that didn't happen. Basically the facts show they made good choices and the conservatives were wrong.

    13. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by MightyYar · · Score: 2

      Ideological arguments about taxation aside, that still is OK when calculating GDP... if you voluntarily gave money to the government and the government spent it, that would not pose a problem - the fact that the "spending" was involuntary doesn't really matter to the GDP calculation. Just make sure that you don't count the payment of taxes as spending so that it is double-counted.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    14. Re: Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dumbest comment yet.

      The dollars are spent. That's going to a GDP calculation.

      If they weren't spent there, they'd be spent elsewhere. If not directly for goods, then in an investment vehicle like stocks.

    15. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Darinbob · · Score: 2

      You can love the US while still criticizing it. The same as with a family member, if you think your parents have flaws it does not mean you don't love them. It is very jingoist to not allow dissent or criticism of your own country.

    16. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      Every country fudges the formulas in order to make their GDP look better than it is.. If a country's opposition parties are strong enough then the ruling parties will fudge this less while being more open and honest. When the opposition is weak, then the rules are abused or ignored.

    17. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You missed my irony. I was actually trying to make the point that our government and media parrot seemingly populist positions (like "love it or leave it") to silence dissent. It was intended to highlight the Orwellianness, and apparently it worked a little too well.

    18. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The old 'inflation is running much higher than the government reports' canard. It is easy to do a rough check between the government statistics and BS sites like shadow stats.

      A lot of 'alternative inflation sites' like to report inflation on the order of 5 to 10%. If inflation were really running at 7% a year, the cost of living would double every 10 years.

      This would suggest that you would need a salary of nearly $100,000 today to have the same lifestyle that someone making $25,000/yr had in 1998. Anyone who has been employed during the last 20 years knows that this is nonsensical.

      There is clever tracking of inflation via the Billion Prices Project. Some researchers are scraping millions of on-line prices to create a parallel measure of inflation. You can see it tracks the BLS numbers quite closely here:
      http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/usa/

    19. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why the Fed creates money, whose pocket did it come from? When the Us borrows from China and Japan, whose pocket did it come from?

    20. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      You concept of cause and effect is sure fucked.

      You might want to consider this concept of the "arrow of time."

      You propose that stimulus money was given to people after having been taken from other people's pockets.

      It is clear from that that you don't even understand the basic concept of stimulus spending, much less the details of how it was done in a particular case. I can also infer that you know what frequency the local conservative AM radio station is on.

    21. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/billion-price-update/

    22. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Numbers aren't really his thing, it's just stuck on the 'good station' that always agrees with him, and stays there.

    23. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Jahta · · Score: 1

      Real GDP is the net of domestic output minus price changes, ie inflation. Look into how our inflation measurements have been contorted over the years and you'll see how it's "grossly" under-reported, thus GDP is overstated.

      In addition, the usefulness of GDP is oversold. GDP is used as a "magic number" (bigger must be better, right?), but in reality it's not the best measure of how well an economy is performing.

    24. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depends on the amount of criticism. If you do nothing but criticize your parents and tell them, "But it's because I love you," they will rightfully think you're full of it.

    25. Re:Real GDP is overstated here in the USA too by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 1

      It's included because those dollars are in fact spent, and do in fact end up in people's pockets.

      Correct. I should have mentioned that the proper way to handle it isn't to remove government spending but instead to subtract government deficit spending. In other words, if you do a trillion dollar stimulus package and it's financed by debt, it ends up as a wash. If the debt is later paid down (I know, LOL), the money would show up then. It shows up twice if both are part of the GDP.

      To give a simpler example, let's say I make $100,000/year. My household income is $100,000/year. This year I run up $20,000 in credit card debt. So, my household income is $120,000, right? That's what adding the money to the GDP looks like. My household income is still $100,000/year. If I pay the credit card off next year, my income is still $100,000, but effectively it's $80,000 (ignoring interest). Since debt payments aren't subtracted from the GDP, the numbers would be $120,000 and $100,000, which is clearly wrong. It would be correct to say $100,000 and $100,000 or $120,000 and $80,000. We mix and match to make the numbers look better.

  3. No Sh1t Sherlock by DatbeDank · · Score: 3, Funny

    If you really believe China's GDP numbers have been that hilarious 7% growth for the past few years, I have a presidency to sell you.

    Sincerely,
    Russia /sar

    1. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

      If you really believe China's GDP numbers have been that hilarious 7% growth for the past few years, I have a presidency to sell you.

      Sincerely,
      Russia /sar

      Hillary lost. Get over it.

    2. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So why are all the other numbers also getting bigger. Wages, exports, imports etc?

    3. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by iMadeGhostzilla · · Score: 4, Funny

      She only lost because Russia and China inflated their GDP. That, and a bit of Comey. And misogyny of course.

    4. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by avandesande · · Score: 1

      They aren't, at least not at the rate that would match their GDP claims.

      --
      love is just extroverted narcissism
    5. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      300Billion+ trade surplus with just America. Trillions of US dollars in reserves, some of the biggest companies in the world. Wages growth every year for 30 years. Retail sales growing at 10%+ for years, etc etc.

    6. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      She only lost because Russia and China inflated their GDP. That, and a bit of Comey. And misogyny of course.

      You left out, "And too much Hillary!" - and that's the main reason.

    7. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 2

      Because they tend not to take into account the falling purchasing power of the dollar over time (one definition of inflation, although, strictly speaking, that is an effect of inflation, the cause of which is the expansion of the money supply at a higher rate than the expansion of production). They do attempt to take inflation into account, but using a very misleading measure thereof. A better measure of economic well-being would be the median disposable income properly adjusted for the effects of inflation and purchasing power parity. By that measure, I think you'll find that there is some growth in China, very little in the U.S. if any at all, and either a bunch or a negative bunch in Russia depending mainly on oil prices.

    8. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There you idiots go bringing up Hillary again.

      To you I say "Hillary lost. Get over it."

    9. Re: No Sh1t Sherlock by peragrin · · Score: 1

      They have 25% of the world's population and are lift those people out of abject poverty. 10% annual growth is not only reasonable but low.

      When china is done they should have 2-3 times the GDP and economic output of the USA. That is how much more growth they have yet to go.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    10. Re: No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go look in China and experience for yourself how they have overtaken your shitty delapidated excuse for a country that's falling apart at the seams. They only thing the US seems really good at nowadays is suffering crazy shooters.

    11. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you really believe China's GDP numbers have been that hilarious 7% growth for the past few years, I have a presidency to sell you.

      Sincerely,
      Russia /sar

      No, thanks. It's lost most of its value over the years.

    12. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Hasaf · · Score: 2

      There is also China's Inflation rate to consider. I was teaching Economics in China and we were at the point that were were discussing the ideal inflation rate, which most experts put at 2%. It should come as no surprise that China's inflation rat was 2% and had been 2% for several years.

      Then we compared the prices of a market basket of goods that we were able to find past prices for. I am just going to say that the results were "discomforting."

      For those incapable of reading between the lines, the inflation rate we found was very different from the official inflation rate.

    13. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      We did buy one. But unfortunately we didn't opt in for the extended warranty package.

    14. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by taustin · · Score: 1

      No, she lost because Trump got more votes in the electoral college. But then, she would have lost if the Republicans has nominated a plastic coat hanger.

    15. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      That's fine. However it does not mean we need to bow down and kiss the winner's ass. One of the best parts of America is that we are allowed to criticize our government and its leaders. In fact, I think its everyone's civic duty to critizice their leaders! Asking citizens to "shut up because it could have been worse" is akin to discouraging democracy.

    16. Re: No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      But they won't make it that far, which is what most people who talk about China don't understand. China's growth is in reality slowing drastically, and will probably level out at about the same place that Korea's did.

      Demography is the main reason; Their population is not growing at a rate that will sustain their former economic growth, and they are in the midst of a great grey tsunami of old people, retirees who are more of a drag than a boost to economic growth.

      Their extraordinary pace up til recently was mainly in desperation - They needed to get rich before they got old, and now the boom years are over.

      Anything they say over 3.5% is probably a fabrication.

    17. Re: No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As someone who has been to China many times, allow me to just say.... Hahhahahahaha!

    18. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Having been there I can believe it. The whole country is a giant building site.

      Also, artificial lighting is not a good measuring tool for GDP. In China the culture is just that a lot of public spaces are poorly lit. Even in hotels it's not uncommon not have hallway lights turned off, or at least on occupancy sensors.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    19. Re: No Sh1t Sherlock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      3.5% growth now, is probably a lot more growth than 10% a decade ago since it's 3.5% of a much bigger number. They don't need 10% growth anymore.

    20. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by CaffeinatedBacon · · Score: 1

      Was it higher or lower? Was it higher or lower than the corresponding wage increases?
      China targets 3% inflation anyway...

    21. Re:No Sh1t Sherlock by Hasaf · · Score: 1

      It was much higher. Practical estimates are 5%-7%.

    22. Re: No Sh1t Sherlock by Brockmire · · Score: 1

      Isn't there some sort of averaging across different products and industries? I don't see restaurants raising prices matching inflation, I see price increases of $0.50-$1.00, often 5-10%. Yesterday, was the first time I saw a restaurant do $0.30 increase on nearly every item. So the rate is different for the $2.29 and $10.29 items.

    23. Re: No Sh1t Sherlock by Hasaf · · Score: 1

      In economics when we refer to a market basket of goods it is a set of basic goods, called permanent staples. There are goods that are unlikely so change in composition or utility. Yes, it does cross several sectors, even though it may sound that way, they are not all groceries.

  4. Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    You say that like the US ain't one too.

    1. Re:Authoritarian countries? by rogoshen1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Tell that to someone who grew up in the USSR or GDR -- and try to keep a straight face. It's certainly a cause for concern here and getting worse; but no - we're no where NEAR a true authoritarian regime.

    2. Re: Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or tell it to someone tortured by the CIA because their name sounded similar to someone who may or may not have said something supportive of terrorism on the Internet.

    3. Re:Authoritarian countries? by washort · · Score: 1

      I have. My friends who grew up in the USSR agree that the USA is more oppressive in many respects.

    4. Re:Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are going to lose if you keep looking at communism 2.0 as if it's the same as communism 1.0. I would think if any of these people from USSR or GDR have critical thinking skills they might see how the stakes are MUCH higher now. They would see how this new world doesn't look like either the capitalism nor the communism of the past. They would realize that the threats are new and the techniques for the demigogues are not the same as they were. Sure, the average person is terrible at critical thinking and predicting the future without just imaging it will be much like the past. But, if you find someone from USSR or GDR with significant intelligence, I'd imaging they would have grave concerns about where we're headed too.

    5. Re:Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think that guy might work for CTR or the CIA or something. It's just a trick to control the discussion. Obviously, there are tons of forms of oppression that the USSR didn't have. Economic freedom (for some) sure. But, that's not all there is to life, especially when you're poor and probably will be for the duration.

    6. Re:Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My wife grew up in the Soviet Sphere. Despite living through food rationing, she says the US is now far more authoritarian than the USSR was.

    7. Re:Authoritarian countries? by butchersong · · Score: 1

      It depends. The civil rights act for example compels behavior to a significant degree in the US. You could make many arguments for cases in which Russia is less oppressive. That doesn't mean of course that taking everything in total I would choose to live in Russia..

    8. Re:Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      When I was in the USSR, a Ukranian told me that he was just as free as I. He said I could go stand in front of the White House and yell, "George Bush is a fool!" with no recourse. He said he could also go stand in the middle of Red Square and shout, "George Bush is a fool!" with no recourse too.

    9. Re:Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Either you or her are lying. USSR, and even China today, were/are much worse than America is today.

    10. Re:Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They must have belonged to the Party, are native Russian and not visited the East Germany, the most orthodox of the bunch. Also the oppression has to be defined: is it in the foreign policy or in the domestic life, at the Federal level, or at the level of a State or a city?

    11. Re: Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's funny that people say that, perhaps not realizing that people can actually look up facts for themselves and objectively disprove the ludicrous idea that the USSR was less authoritarian (i.e. less free) then the U.S. You'd have to almost completely uneducated (or just gullible) to believe it.

    12. Re:Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I knew a Russian software QA in CA. He had a math PHD from Russia. He told me in his own words he'd rather be a homeless person in America than a professor in Russia. Granted that was decades ago but I doubt the differences have been great enough that USA is more oppressive at this point. Give another few years, then who knows.

    13. Re: Authoritarian countries? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      You'd have to almost completely uneducated... to believe it.

      What if you were educated in the Soviet Union and only knew that you were really poor and wanted to move to a rich country, you didn't know about gulags and people disappearing. Maybe you didn't know that half the country was reporting to the government, even about people in their own families, because your family members were doing it and so they never ever would have brought it up and when somebody else did, they said it was propaganda.

      What if then you came to the US, and didn't focus on learning about the Soviet Union, because you already escaped; you focused on learning about your new home!

      In this situation, simply the openness with which people are allowed to make complaints in the US would already make it look to you as if there are more problems here; but the only thing you actually noticed more of was political discussion!

      It reminds me of Chess Grandmaster Lev Alburt, who defected to the west ~1980. He talked about how when he was a child, the propaganda always claimed that the US was ready to invade, and all the kids believed it. And they were eagerly waiting. Him and his friends even drew maps of the local military barracks, and hid them away, waiting to give them to the Americans when they started parachuting down to free them! But alas, it was only propaganda, the Americans never came.

    14. Re:Authoritarian countries? by amorsen · · Score: 1

      Meanwhile, on the 8th of December last year, a 16 year old was thrown on the ground by police, beaten, and arrested, for yelling "Fuck Trump".

      In Copenhagen, Denmark.

      https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    15. Re: Authoritarian countries? by Brockmire · · Score: 1

      In Canada, we hired a Russian to work on firmware for embedded wireless product. His HTML was awful. It was a few years before someone asked what he was working on in his spare time, it was something to do with rockets. He was a motherfucking rocket scientist with a PhD. His wife was a doctor in Russia but not Canada certified to practise. AND THEY STILL DIDN'T WANT TO LIVE IN RUSSIA.

  5. US does as well by crypticedge · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The US has as well ever since it made financial entity transactions part of GDP, something no other nation does.

    1. Re: US does as well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You say that as though you don't consider the US to be an authoritarian country.

    2. Re:US does as well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The US has as well ever since it made financial entity transactions part of GDP, something no other nation does.

      Citation?

      I could not find a scholarly source that agrees with your claim.

  6. Why trust ANY data from Authoritarian Countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Any inconvenient data is probably fudged.
    pollution data
    military spending
    number of people in prison
    healthcare quality
    surveillance of the general population
    election integrity

  7. Shoclking news that authoritarians lie! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Whats next.. water is wet? The jews are nazis?

    Tell us something we dont know..

    1. Re: Shoclking news that authoritarians lie! by Brockmire · · Score: 1

      I don't think you understand how the "water is wet" thing is used. It's certainly NOT like saying Jews are Nazis. You've got to be the dumbest person on the Internet today.

  8. This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicago by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I read the introduction of the working paper. As someone with PhD, I have to call this research to be pure bullshit. If modern economists are as what this researcher, then I will call modern economics to be full of bullshit as well.

    From the working paper, here is the main methodology..

    " I study whether the mapping of night lights to GDP differs systematically by regime type. That is to say, I examine whether the same amount of growth in nighttime light translates into more GDP growth in autocracies than in democracies"

    This methodology does not make sense for obvious reasons and non-obvious reasons. GDP is NOT night time light volume. A city with street lights but no people do not produce GDP. On the other hand, a factory that only works in the daytime, like in industrialized countries such as western europe and east China, do not have light volume at night. I cannot believe this bullshit research gets publicized by Bezos' fake news Washington Post. Maybe these news reporters deserve to starve and their newspapers shut down due to their inability to notice fake research?

  9. Authoritarian countries? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Washington post...

  10. Re: Sure thing boiling frog.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Its just a hottub!

  11. Fake news? by spinitch · · Score: 1

    Unbelievable, countries with regimes that thrive on freedom of information would resort to such propaganda tactics. Satellite imagery was objectively analyzed for detecting WMD in iRaq after all.

    1. Re:Fake news? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Satellite imagery was objectively analyzed for detecting WMD in iRaq after all.

      As well as the spy agencies from every relevant government.

      My brother, as US Marine, served in Iraq twice as a Combat Engineer (the EOD people in the Marines, who don't get paid nearly the same; these are the people that either build stuff or blow stuff up). On his first tour, he had to dispose of multiple chemical weapons, which went unreported by the media.

      As far as I know, there was no nuclear facility or material discovered, but everyone -- including Saddam's own bravado -- believed that he was working on them. It's not like we can dig up the entire desert of Iraq to find stuff when its citizens -- when they're not infighting -- refuse to help. The fact that no one of merit discussed the chemical WMDs was purely in service of the current lack of ethics in journalism in order to push an agenda.

    2. Re:Fake news? by smooth+wombat · · Score: 0

      he had to dispose of multiple chemical weapons, which went unreported by the media.

      Bullshit. The finds were reported and the reason was those weapons were from the 80's, not something which had been produced recently. Which was the whole point of Bush's lie. He said Iraq had an active wmd program, that he was producing chemical and biological weapons.

      If those weapons you claim had been found, don't you think the Bush administration would have been crowing from the highest lightpost about being right? If those weapons had been found, why did Dick Cheney say he knew where those weapons were every time he was asked about not finding wmds rather than saying they had found them and here's the proof?

      the current lack of ethics in journalism in order to push an agenda.

      You mean not pushing lies like finding wmds when they weren't? You mean like reporting the facts of a situation rather than what the sprayed orange con artist says? You mean like not being a mouthpiece for said same person and abandoning any pretense of being fair and balanced?

      Speaking of pushing an agenda. . .

      --
      We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
  12. Glorious Leader by Zorro · · Score: 4, Funny

    North Korea wishes to point out its superiority in cloaking devices.

    They only appear to be in the dark.

  13. is jeff bezos rooting my ubunto with his app? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    it's in the apps column.. yikes almighty.. cease fire stand down.. the time is coming when our domestic product will not be gross?

    1. Re:is jeff bezos rooting my ubunto with his app? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ubuntu started sending your local search data from your local machine to Amazon back in like 2012. Amazon has had Ubuntu machines by the balls for years. Why in the hell are you still using Ubuntu? Most anyone who cared about this event has long since switched to another distro (I'm using Debian, despite all the Poettering that has befallen it).

  14. We Americans knew damn well by rsilvergun · · Score: 2, Insightful

    nothing was getting better. That's why we turned to a populist (Trump). Sadly so far I don't think it's turned out the way we'd hoped. Our populist put the same Goldman Sach's folks in charge that have run the show since Reagan and now he support's TPP & increases to guest worker programs. His tax cuts expire on us in 10 years but not on the 1%ers. Oh, and the $1 trillion in debt from those tax cuts is already being used as ammo to shoot down Medicare & Social Security, so we're fucked when we got old.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:We Americans knew damn well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      , so we're fucked when we got old.

      so why don't we get out and start grassroots organizations to oppose such behaviour? why don't we use this movement to also write your elected representatives to authoritatively reject the target? why are you giving up hope without trying. or are you saying that our generation doesn't deserve it and thus you are okay with the direction it goes if you continue to sit back and do nothing but cry from the safety of your computer screen.

      Are you an AmeriCAN or AmeriCAN'T

    2. Re:We Americans knew damn well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did you actually vote for Trump? No? Then why are you using "we" to describe the actions of other people?

    3. Re:We Americans knew damn well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      To be fair I think it's safe to assume he's speaking for the electoral majority, but not the popular majority.

      See what I did there.

  15. Elections? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yea, China boosts it's GDP before elections...

  16. Old news by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 2

    Heinlein was calling them on it (although he probably overstated his case) fifty years ago in "Pravda means Truth" (which you can find in Expanded Universe or the earlier The Worlds of Robert A. Heinlein)

    1. Re:Old news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Certain countries? Try all countries. Anyone with a brain wants investment, anyone with a brain will ponder on how to get investment.
      Side effect of intelligent creativity coupled with ambition and intent is a myriad ways of conning and scamming for investment by portraying value and progress even if through smokescreen and bullshit, and countries wouldn't be countries without self-interest, therefore every country with an iota of IQ has unreliable numbers.
      This is not a matter of right or wrong, but common fucking sense. People forget that the global trade isn't one of peace and cooperation but fierce competition and treating all documentation and international agreements as toilet-paper when it is so permissible, because being peaceful on some basic level (not killing each other) and being fair are not mutually inclusive.

    2. Re:Old news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought of that as well.

      Didn't Heinlein look at the train infrastructure and thought that there wasn't enough for what the USSR was claiming?

    3. Re:Old news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      15 years ago was a long time ago. More research has been produced. Now research is saying by many other proxies that in many years, China didn't inflate their GDP figures but actually underrepported them by a huge degree. Sometimes China was growing at 12% but still reported 8%.

    4. Re:Old news by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      We need a 5 year plan to study if we already knew about the honesty of 5 year plans!

    5. Re:Old news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One tell-tale sign should be the difference between an economic policy based on the actual information and that based on the published information. If they do the latter, we know what will happen to them eventually.

  17. Old news by sjbe · · Score: 2

    China, Russia and other authoritarian countries inflate their official GDP figures by anywhere from 15 to 30 percent in a given year, according to a new analysis of a quarter-century of satellite data.

    This is nothing new. When I was getting my graduate degrees (one of which is in business) 15 years ago it was widely understood that China fudged their official numbers as a matter of routine. No real reason to believe this has changed. Economists who study this stuff are well aware that the numbers out of certain countries are unreliable and they make efforts to correct for the problem to the best of their ability.

  18. pigs don't flies by bugs2squash · · Score: 1

    data suggest

    --
    Nullius in verba
  19. meh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It seems counter-intuitive that a regime without free elections would need to lie more at the time immediately preceding elections. Such regimes lie constantly, every evening in the TV news. It's a shame some of those regimes are held up and helped to lie their people by so called democracies, only to further their selfish foreign policy interests and mop up own blunders. It speaks tomes about vulnerability and cost sensitivity of power of allegedly strongest economies of the world. Now that is a scary thought.

    1. Re:meh by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      Why would you expect unfree elections to need less lies and manipulation than free elections?! That... seems to be missing important details. Like the "free" part.

      Most of the time they don't need a lot of lies, instead they just control what the news is allowed to talk about. They don't need to make up fake shit, they just need to filter out the stuff they don't want talked about. But then when an election comes, they want to make sure that the people vote for the correct people; and they sure as hell don't want to have to stuff the ballot boxes, because somebody might make a video and leak it or something! It is much much better to manipulate the debate around the election so that people know which vote is virtuous! And then you can just track who people voted for, and people are going to suspect you're doing that, so they'll be eager to listen carefully to which candidate the official news considers to have the most virtue!

      It isn't enough to have a single political party, because you'll still have different factions within the party. Unfree elections require also control of what people talk about during the election, because if you control people's words you control their thoughts also.

  20. No shit, really? I'm shocked by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... that anyone actually believes these unethical people from the get go. People's biggest failing is letting the rich and powerful cheat them of their lives, liberties and all their hard work. Nothing like living with a despotic tyrant to make all hope go away. IMHO, most people are either too greedy, lazy or stupid and this allows such evil people to continue to destroy this world.

  21. America is the Roman Republic.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    on the wane. It has not yet risen into the Roman Empire or begun its conquest of the rest of the civilized/uncivilized world. Although from its expeditionary actions around the globe, you would be hard pressed to tell.

    1. Re:America is the Roman Republic.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lets hope we never get to the point where we use salt as currency and wash our cloths & brush our teeth with urine.

  22. Yes cat got my tongue now get lost by pele · · Score: 1, Informative

    What a major fail. Data centres produce no visible light in sattelite imagery. Neither do banks, mines, crops (agriculture in general), I suspect larg portions of saudi oil-filled dessert would also be unlit and VERY few factories working 3 shifts have glass roofs. Large portions of german autobahn is unlit. Large portions of belgian is.

    Some countries chose to fight light pollution. California was amongst the first to start looking into it. Based on this "research" California would also by lying about their GDP.

    Someone needs to review this PhD thesis.

    Can someone please downgrade this whole article back to the firehose somehow?

    1. Re: Yes cat got my tongue now get lost by pele · · Score: 1

      Oh it's a "working paper", sorry. Someone chasing after published titles numbers, perhaps?

  23. Pray for it by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 4, Informative

    In the 1960s, Robert Heinlein went to the Soviet Union as part of an opening salvo of goodwill between the countries. He looked at the shipping and roads in and out of Moscow and realized there was no way it could support whatever X millions of people they were claiming to he on rough parity with New York.

    It's been estimated it required about 50% of Soviet GDP to even maintain a facade of parity with the US military.

    --
    (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
  24. Get over it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So Russia and China have better lampshades. Get over it.

  25. Fiat, GDP, banks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They can all be manipulated.

    Crypto-currencies cannot.

  26. really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Producers of luxury goods would be lost without Chinese travellers: their total annual spend abroad is twice that of Americans.

    https://www.economist.com/chin... How are they managing to do this without GDP growing?

    1. Re: really? by Brockmire · · Score: 1

      Laundered funds? How the fuck do communist government workers have tens of millions?

  27. News at 11 by Artem+S.+Tashkinov · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Authoritarian regimes lie more than democracies.

    1. Re:News at 11 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Authoritarian regimes lie more than democracies.

      True only until January 20, 2017.

  28. Now it makes sense by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 1

    This finding explains why the USA has been having 12% annual growth in GDP ever since vivid LED street lamps started to come into widespread use.

  29. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

    GDP is NOT night time light volume.

    Of course not. But it is a rough proxy for GDP. Why would it systematically differ between authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries? An obvious answer is data fudging.

    A city with street lights but no people do not produce GDP. On the other hand, a factory that only works in the daytime

    Why would these differ between authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries?

    China is known for "ghost cities", but they were never really that common, many of them are now occupied, and they would lead to under reporting of GDP, not the over reporting actually observed.

  30. Re: This research is pure bullshit from U of Chic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Looks to me like they are measuring correlation, which might be a result of people having jobs, money being spent in bars and restaurants, houses being lit up at night, more tax revenue for street lights, etc. Seems mostly valid to me, although there are probably some cultural factors and local preferences that would need to be considered.

  31. Re: This research is pure bullshit from U of Chic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The dude apparently got a PHD from Fox News.

  32. Alt-Left WaPo at it again.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Pretty funny they of course leave out countries like India. Wonder how much royal money is backing Wapo now.

  33. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Archtech · · Score: 1

    If modern economists are as what this researcher, then I will call modern economics to be full of bullshit as well.

    You are quite right: modern economics is little more than a huge pile of bullshit. That's mainly because its assertions cannot be tested, so no one knows whether what economists say is true.

    That being so,street-smart economists say what the rich and powerful like to hear - and get lucrative professorships, book contracts, government jobs, sponsorship, etc.

    If you want to learn something about real economics, read Michael Hudson or Steve Keen. There's still a lot of truth in Adam Smith, Jean-Baptiste Say, David Ricardo, Thomas Robert Malthus, John Stuart Mill and the other original "classical" economists. (Although you have to allow for the huge differences between their world and ours. Smith, for example, pointed out how entrepreneurs could make vast profits by ignoring their own country's interests, but concluded that no one could be so vile as to do so. Sigh).

    There's also a lot of truth and valuable ideas in Karl Marx, if you have the mental energy and intestinal fortitude to ignore the unjustified abuse that has been heaped on him - precisely because the rich and powerful would much prefer you not to learn about his thoughts.

    --
    I am sure that there are many other solipsists out there.
  34. and test scores by slashmydots · · Score: 1

    You know that whole "Americans are 14th in reading" thing and all those other allegedly comparable international test score stats? Yeah, because arrogant countries all about self image, especially in Asia, never lie and cheat to inflate those numbers. That tooootally doesn't have any precedent. Other countries lie about everything to make themselves look better. Everyone knows this.

  35. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Baloroth · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's obviously not a perfect measure of GDP, but actually people have done the research and shown a strong link between the two. If, as you claim, you have a PhD (and it's in a relevant field: sorry, an English PhD gives you zero qualifications here), you're not only free, but should have the capability to put out your own research disproving this work. Of course, given the quality of logic in your post, I suspect you don't have that capability. For example:

    A city with street lights but no people do not produce GDP.

    The entire point of both a city and street lights is to have people. It's true that China has been building "ghost cities, but all that does is suggest that in fact the light-based estimate overestimates economic activity, which just makes the point in TFA that much stronger.

    On the other hand, a factory that only works in the daytime, like in industrialized countries such as western europe and east China, do not have light volume at night.

    Have you seen a factory at night before? Or even seen a factory in a movie at night? Most of them absolutely put out light at night (they're usually glittering beacons of light, in fact). In fact if they have smokestacks or chimneys they're required to or they're a huge safety risk to aircraft. Also lots (most?) factories in most climates run in mornings and evenings before/after sunrise, and it's not uncommon for them to run overnight: downtime is a huge waste of money when you have an expensive factory. In fact, factories not running overnight would be an indicator of economic weakness, such as happened to the US auto industry in the 2000s.

    --
    "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
  36. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Archtech · · Score: 0

    A really wealthy, civilized culture would shed virtually no light upwards at night time. It's wasteful and stops you seeing the stars - which, to a civilized person, is far more important than gold-plated taps or a 28-cylinder car.

    --
    I am sure that there are many other solipsists out there.
  37. Authoritarian countries kill other people. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    On measure of whether a country is authoritarian is whether it kills other people to get what it wants.

    Where in the World Is the U.S. Military? Quote: "... the United States ... maintains nearly 800 military bases in more than 70 countries and territories abroad... Britain, France and Russia, by contrast, have about 30 foreign bases combined."

    Book: Base Nation: How U.S. Military Bases Abroad Harm America and the World

    Another way to measure authoritarian control: Is the U.S. truly a democracy? Or is most government control hidden from voters? Most U.S. citizens have little or no knowledge of how much taxpayer money the U.S. military spends.

    1. Re:Authoritarian countries kill other people. by butchersong · · Score: 2

      That seems a strange value to focus on. I would think authoritarianism would be measured using domestic metrics rather than foreign policy ones. I mean how many foreign bases does N Korea have?

    2. Re: Authoritarian countries kill other people. by Brockmire · · Score: 1

      All those bases are there with permission and contribute to local economy AND protect their asses. I don't think you found a good metric.

  38. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    GDP is NOT night time light volume.

    Of course not. But it is a rough proxy for GDP. Why would it systematically differ between authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries? An obvious answer is data fudging.

    Some other possibilities:

    * Risk of theft and cost of security guards leads factory manager to make different choices about how late the lights are on.
    * Differences in housing and urban planning cause people to live in housing with differing densities. If everyone lives in apartments, then there will be less area to cover with street lights.
    * The cost of electricity to the person making the decision to keep the lights on.
    * The industries the countries have changes land use patterns.

    Why would these differ between authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries?

    There are hundreds of ways countries vary that could influence light emissions. There are less than 300 countries in the world. The only way to extract a result from the sample of countries on earth is to make assumptions about what properties of a country influence light emissions. Those assumptions can't be validated in the real world.

  39. 'Human' nature by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

    My muscles are bigger than yours, therefore I am superior to you!
    I am taller than you, therefore I am superior to you!
    I can run faster, therefore I am superior to you!
    My penis is larger and harder, therefore I am superior to you!
    I am superior to you, therefore more females prefer to mate with me more frequently than with you!
    Our GDP is larger, therefore we are superior to you!

    Our species is still painfully young, not much more evolved than the rest of the animals. We just have better toys.

    Co-operation is more important than competition

    We might just survive long enough to reach that point.

    1. Re:'Human' nature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Co-operation is worthless without competition and competition is worthless without co-operation.
      Your mindset is still too simple in a world and Universe that is anything but.

    2. Re:'Human' nature by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Co-operation is more important than competition

      We might just survive long enough to reach that point.

      Too late, as usual. The question is, will enough of us survive to try again, or will it be the cockroaches?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:'Human' nature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You accuse him of having 'too simple a mindset' but are too simple-minded yourself to have read every single word because otherwise you would have noticed it says "Co-operation is MORE IMPORTANT than competition", not that 'competition' is unimportant.

      Go back to the trees, monkey-boy, and stop flinging your poo on the internets.

    4. Re:'Human' nature by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      You and I are just powerless faces in the crowd who might happen to notice what's going on, and won't be able to affect much of anything. That's in the hands of others, and we'll all be long since dead before the outcome becomes apparent.

    5. Re:'Human' nature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's no "more" if it's interdependent. You speak of monkeys yet you think like one. Stop eating your own poop.

  40. All governments lie about this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This should come as no surprise to anyone. All governments lie about how well things are going under their skilled manipulation of the economy. Their respective Ministries of Truth want to ensure that the populace continues to support their enlightened leadership. As a small example -- we keep hearing how great the US economy is doing using the declining unemployment numbers as the indicator. What doesn't get mentioned is the declining workforce participation numbers -- fewer people in the workforce and actively looking for work. Similar cherry-picking can be found in pretty much every published prosperity statistic. My favorite is consumer price metrics -- where the basket of goods and services chosen exclude services like gasoline and power. And with this number being used to index pensions one can be assured that changes will lag behind reality.

    The actual paper is an interesting bit of speculation, probably BS, but then it is not hard to find flaws with most economic analysis of this type. The 'real' numbers are unavailable so reading tea leaves has to suffice. And it becomes faith in fortune tellers -- like trickle down economics.

  41. How GDP is calculated by sjbe · · Score: 4, Informative

    Finance 501 taught me that GDP is the money supply times the velocity of money

    Your education is incomplete. There are multiple ways to calculate GDP and they use several of them for official numbers to ensure some amount of consistency. In principle each method should give (roughly) equal results though in practice it isn't always so easy. The Economist has a decent article on how it generally is calculated.

    1. Re:How GDP is calculated by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > ensure some amount of consistency.

      You mean to lie. GDP maybe isn't a good measure, but let's just pretend it is by making up numbers till they fit what the government wants them to be.

    2. Re:How GDP is calculated by Lost+Race · · Score: 1

      Your education is incomplete.

      Is any education ever complete?

  42. Russian trolls? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This seems like legitimate, though not novel, research.

    The interesting bit is not that China and Russia lie about their GDP - everyone knows that. I talk to investment bankers all the time, and when the conversation turns to these states, it's not about whether they lie, but what external variables can be used to estimate by how much they lie.

    The really interesting bit is how quickly the trolls jumped on this story, especially on the original WaPo article (somewhat less so here, but I would think that at least a few of the comments here are also trolls). Clearly, the Russian state wants to discredit this story, because doing so would be much cheaper than cheating on light emissions - that would take billions of dollars, annually.

  43. paywalled by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Original article is inaccessible without registration. Is there an alternate source?

  44. Clueless by sjbe · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You are quite right: modern economics is little more than a huge pile of bullshit.

    I'm sure you really believe that too even though that statement makes it clear you haven't actually studied economics and are substituting ideology for evidence.

    That's mainly because its assertions cannot be tested, so no one knows whether what economists say is true.

    That is not even remotely true for a wide array of economic research. They have testable models which are used all the time. Heck there is money to be made by making testable models - do you really think all the investment banks would spend so much money on quantitative analysis if it didn't provide actual results?

    There's also a lot of truth and valuable ideas in Karl Marx,

    Yeah you just shot yourself in the foot there if you think Marx is any sort of a refutation of modern economic research.

  45. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    * Risk of theft and cost of security guards leads factory manager to make different choices about how late the lights are on.

    If you have stuff worth stealing, you mean?

    * The cost of electricity to the person making the decision to keep the lights on.

    So whether they can afford to keep the lights on and make their place safer?

    It's not trivial, but it's apparently highly studied, and some of your arguments don't make sense.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  46. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by dj245 · · Score: 2

    GDP is NOT night time light volume.

    Of course not. But it is a rough proxy for GDP. Why would it systematically differ between authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries? An obvious answer is data fudging.

    Data fudging, maybe. Cultural differences, developmental differences, and about 100 other factors are probably better proxies. The light pollution methodology IS bullshit. Especially when we are talking about small changes in GDP like 3-7% growth.

    Just as one example, in the US a substantial source of light pollution is car sales lots, which are lit up like daytime 365 nights a year. Countries in Europe don't generally have as many lots- they often order their cars from the factory. In Japan, theft is rare and land is expensive so the lots are much smaller and aren't well lit at night. Similarly, the US is heavilly car-dependent and we have huge parking lots of department stores, malls, and grocery stores, many of which are lit up at night. Most other countries have more concentrated population centers and less suburban sprawl.

    Additionally, many places are actively trying to reduce light pollution, and in some countries it is normal to shutter most businesses in the evening. Plus, in many developing countries the GDP growth may be concentrated in the top of the economic ladder, which is not very noticable from light pollution.

    Unless the study corrected for factors like this (and they didn't) the correlation between GDP and light pollution is completely baloney.

    --
    Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
  47. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by dj245 · · Score: 1

    Have you seen a factory at night before? Or even seen a factory in a movie at night? Most of them absolutely put out light at night (they're usually glittering beacons of light, in fact). In fact if they have smokestacks or chimneys they're required to or they're a huge safety risk to aircraft. Also lots (most?) factories in most climates run in mornings and evenings before/after sunrise, and it's not uncommon for them to run overnight: downtime is a huge waste of money when you have an expensive factory. In fact, factories not running overnight would be an indicator of economic weakness, such as happened to the US auto industry in the 2000s.

    Not necessarily. Our manufacturing facility has about a dozen CNC machines. We load the machines up in the afternoon and let them run all night until they either complete the part or run into some kind of fault. Everybody leaves by 4:30PM. Not all manufacturing businesses are like this, but there are plenty of them, and likely more in 1st world countries than in 3rd world ones.

    --
    Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
  48. There is one by rsilvergun · · Score: 0, Troll

    it's called "Justice Democrats". It's basically the Bernie Wing of the Democratic party. But it's not so much an uphill battle as it's more a "Vertical Line" battle.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:There is one by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A large percentage of the "sheople" are brainwashed to auto-reject anything that sounds like socialism (whether they really know what that term means or not). Bernie was widely labeled as a socialist, whether he meets that definition or not. A lot of folks didn't think Bernie was electable for that reason.

      Also, don't forget the other alternative, the Green Party. I find it sad how little traction they get now, but as the ice caps continue to melt (and all that this implies) I suspect they will get more attention in the future.

    2. Re: There is one by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bernie would be president today if the Wicked Witch of the West and the leadership of the Democratic Party had not criminally conspired to steal the nomination. Why this isnâ(TM)t being investigated is beyond me.
      Both parties are owned by big banks and corporations and are robbing you blind.

  49. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My explanation is that authoritarian governance creates ample opportunities for corruption, and a consequence of corruption is the fudging of reports and studies at all levels. Which is a known failure of führerprinzip as practiced in Hitler's Germany, WW2 Italy, Franco's Spain, tin-pot Latin America and SEA, the list goes on.

  50. All Governments Lie by hduff · · Score: 2

    All governments lie, just about different things.

    --
    "I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it." : Dogbert
  51. We Can Do Better Than Conspiracy Theories by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Look into how our inflation measurements have been contorted over the years and you'll see how it's "grossly" under-reported, thus GDP is overstated.

    Ugh, what a lame, empty conspiracy-theory line. How about instead of hand-waving about the most important part of your thesis you at least bother to describe how these contortions were done. Even better provide a link to a full-fledged description that lays out this clearly obvious manipulation, even better a link to full-fledged description from a reliable source and not some infowars/.zerohedge conspiracy site with zero credibility.

    Until then, shame on all the suckers with mod points who got fooled into treating your intellectually empty post as insightful.

  52. Really? by nospam007 · · Score: 1

    Satellite data also 'strongly suggests' that there is a climate change going on, but nobody cares.
    But if somebody exaggerates his own wealth, it's a problem?
    With THIS Administration?

  53. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Different land-use patterns. In a country where most people live in apartment buildings, and it's not common to live in a single-family home, people don't have any practical way to produce more outside light. Even if my real income is rising 10% a year, it's not very practical for me to "consume" more artificial light outdoors. Whereas if I live in the US or another country where most well-off people live in a single-family home, I may want to bathe my house in lighting, put in a pool with lights, or just run the lights I already have more.
    In short, the whole hypothesis ignores differences in culture and regulation.

  54. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Headw1nd · · Score: 1

    But do you leave the lights on? Most industrial facilities I have been in are lit up when in operation regardless of the work schedule, so if someone has to show up in the middle of the night they can instantly assess what is going on.

  55. Re: This research is pure bullshit from U of Chica by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Literally nothing redeemable in terms of economic thought from Marx. The labor theory of value is complete bullshit.

    Here's what you should know: many economic models can be tested. Additionally, the increasing amount of data available is allowing for easier "natural" experiments to be used for research.

    Stop being a moron and spouting bullshit.

  56. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by swb · · Score: 1

    That being so,street-smart economists say what the rich and powerful like to hear - and get lucrative professorships, book contracts, government jobs, sponsorship, etc.

    I'm not sure all of economics is untestable, but it's occasionally hard not to see some aspects of it as a variation on confirmation bias, justifying the outcomes of the economic elite through a quasi-scientific basis.

    Surely the economists who create theories and rationales which justify capitalists' economic behaviors wind up with more and better employment opportunities than those who would criticize them. It also doesn't help that economists like to reflexively claim a non-ideological/non-judgemental position on a lot of issues. If something like high-frequency trading, globalism, etc, leads to greater profits it's seen as a good economic outcome even when it causes huge externalities.

    Shipping jobs to China has always found legions of economists who support the practice for various reasons and who hand-wave side effects like large-scale regional unemployment as something to be cured with "job training in new industries".

    I think there is a lot of economics that can be reasonably modeled and explained through mathematics, but it's not a completely scientific endeavor and seems willing to engage in willing ignorance of some/many outcomes if something like profit/wealth increases.

  57. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by sysrammer · · Score: 1

    Privet, drug, kak dela?

    --
    His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
  58. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by taustin · · Score: 1

    I cannot believe this bullshit research gets publicized by Bezos' fake news Washington Post.

    Why would that surprise you? WaPo is just shy of publishing Bat Boy stories. Random word generators are more likely to be true.

  59. What if healthcare was not a part of GDP? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What if healthcare was not a part of GDP like the mentioned countries... since including non-value contributing industries in GDP seems to be a US thing.

  60. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And that is the major flaw with this study, your buy more CNC so that means the your bussiness has grown but the satellite keep seeing the same ligths meanwhile electricty comsuption has increased in your factory something that the satellite cant measure.

  61. That must be true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Because Washington Post is indepented media which never lies and always reports true and balanced stories.
    Good thing the US has indepented press.
    Otherwise we would start asking questions about who payed to have whay piblished.

  62. Let's talk about U.S. debt instead by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    because the current game in the U.S. is to create debt out of thin air to inflate the economy, which is much worse and more urgent to discuss.

  63. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Did you even read the summary? The study is not claiming that the magnitude of light pollution is a metric for total GDP. What they suggest is that *increase* of light pollution is a metric for *increase* in GDP. So as the US economy rises, the US builds more car sales lots and malls. When Germany's economy rises, Germany builds more of whatever causes light pollution over there - factories, ports, whatever corresponds to economic activity. The individual countries' methods of producing light pollution don't matter. And apparently there is a very good correlation between reported GDP rise and light pollution increase in countries that are likely truthful in their reporting (Such as US, Japan and most of Europe) so what you're saying falls flat on its face.

  64. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There's also a lot of truth and valuable ideas in Karl Marx, if you have the mental energy and intestinal fortitude to ignore the unjustified abuse that has been heaped on him - precisely because the rich and powerful would much prefer you not to learn about his thoughts.

    Not only the rich and powerful, I guess that the 200 million dead and further 2 billion driven into dreadful poverty by his "brilliant" ideas would also have preferred that noone learned them, I suppose, but that's just me. I'm betting you think that all (or at least most) of those 200 million were rich and powerful bastards. Yeah, right.

  65. Russia is a democracy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It should be noted that Russia is technically a democracy. It is not the old Soviet Union anymore. We only like to call them authoritarian because we don't like them. What definition of authoritarian did the researchers use?

  66. Heh by Ferretman · · Score: 1

    "Duh" seems the most appropriate response.

    Ferret

    --
    Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
  67. In particular, night light underrates North Korea. by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 1

    North Korea is a special case.

    As I understand it, since the Korean "police action" (a.k.a. "Korean War"), North Korea has had continuous WW II-style, nighttime blackouts (for fear of bombing and/or to keep the population propagandized about external threats.)

    So, though they may actually have a low GDP, it may not be a horribly low as the "night lighing => GDP" measure would make it seem.

    (I recall, a few years back, the publication of satellite imagery of the Korea-halves, with North Korea almost as dark as an uninhabited wasteland. The caption/story also suggested that this was a sign of how "benighted" the North Korean economy had become. So that was in the back of my mind when, recently, the newsies mentioned that the North was doing blackouts. "AHA!" sez I. "That light thing is probably a bogus overstatement." So here it comes around again.)

    --
    Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
  68. Not only nations inflate their claims of wealth by Required+Snark · · Score: 1
    Trump has spent decades lying about his net worth to get on the list of the world's richest people.

    He's an authoritarian personality type, which is why he loves dictators like Putin and Kim Jong Un.

    --
    Why is Snark Required?
  69. washington post = fake news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I still remember when Washington Post tried to pass that fake news story about Russia hacking the Vermont power grid.

  70. Re:Why trust ANY data from Authoritarian Countries by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    what they're doing with all the Falun Gong practitioners they rounded up and who haven't been seen in over a decade!

    why they have more organs available per capita for donation than any other country on Earth, even though there is no system in place to collect organs after automobile accidents, and the number of prisoners executed is too low to account for the supply

  71. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    I agree their reasoning was flawed, but there is still the concern that in authoritarian countries the government might be scheduling the lighting more of the time, and simply not micro-managing it to the same level that would be happening when each business chooses when to turn lights on and off. It may be that in authoritarian countries, there are lots of people who wished they were allowed to use more lighting, especially when they had lots of work and were working late and would have preferred to install flood lights in the yard instead of having to use portable lights.

    That said, I find a lot more value in this than most of the commentors, but it is clearly an early result that is made almost entirely of salt.

  72. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Smith assumed that the government and their peers would smack them down, and that nobody would be so vile as to act against their own interests in such a stupid-greedy way.

    It was like pointing out that people don't stick their bare hand into the beehive to get a taste of honey.

    It turns out, not all governments are capable of self-interest. This was a surprise result. But it changes little of his analysis; it just changes the wording of some things.

    Marx starts from quoting Smith's presentation of the basic problem in trade, (self-interest and collusion) but then totally ignores all of Smith's answers and just runs off the rails asserting that the answers have to be as he says, without even considering what if Smith's answer to his setup was legit? People pointing at Marx and claiming it has a bunch of value usually either didn't read it, or didn't bother reading Adam Smith first. You have to read Smith first, because Marx points at Smith's words and mangles the claimed implications.

  73. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Have you seen a factory at night before? Or even seen a factory in a movie at night?

    You obviously don't know about Chinese factories. In the US, if you look at an office building and a factory side-by-side, they look totally different.

    In China, an office building and a factory are not different buildings. The corporate headquarters is not in a fancy building. It is in the same building as the factory. And it looks like a rundown office building in a poor city in the US! 6 floors, all the same height, with exactly the same rows of windows on every floor. You can't really even tell from the outside which floors are offices, and which floors are factory production.

    Just go on banggood and start clicking on shit, you can almost always see a picture of the factory that makes a widget. If they work all night, or they're closed for the day, it will produce about the same amount of light when viewed from above. Very little of the light pollution is coming out of windows; most of it is coming from outdoor lights!

    In the US, having the exterior of the building lit up at night helps make the superintendent feel important. In China, the factory owner is also the superintendent, and so doesn't gain value from the building looking important; he gains a feeling of value by making money, same as the owner here. Also, in China having exterior lights pointed at the building would look arrogant and wasteful, and their society has local officials who could punish you for looking arrogant and wasteful. In the US there is nobody to do that; if people complained, it would just be some hippies and the business would laugh at them and add more lights. In China they would perceive looking arrogant as a dangerous and anti-social thing to do, with unclear but real consequences.

  74. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    China is 2nd world, so comparing 1st or 3rd is perhaps mistaken.

  75. Freedom house by manu0601 · · Score: 1

    The level of democracy for countries is obtained from Freedom House, It has nice maps where Tibet is distinct from China. I know some people advocate for that, but it is the first time I see it on a map.

    I wonder what US people would think is some organization featured a map with Indian reserves as distinct countries.

  76. Re:This research is pure bullshit from U of Chicag by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    India supposedly shines brighter at night when observed by satellite, yet I think it's pretty far fetch to think that India is supposedly richer than China in terms of GDP.

  77. But did you mean /tsar? by q4Fry · · Score: 1

    Sincerely,
    Russia /sar

    In Soviet Russia, sarcasm flags you.

  78. Wrong assumptions by cbraescu1 · · Score: 1

    Then we compared the prices of a market basket of goods that we were able to find past prices for. I am just going to say that the results were "discomforting."

    For those incapable of reading between the lines, the inflation rate we found was very different from the official inflation rate.

    First wrong assumption: that China is calculating inflation using the CPI method.

    Second wrong assumption: that inflation rate is similar over various product groups.

    --
    Catalin Braescu
    Ofaly.com
  79. Re: This research is pure bullshit from U of Chica by Brockmire · · Score: 1

    This doesn't compute.