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Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem (seekingalpha.com)

Posted by msmash on from the closer-look dept.

Reports out of Taiwan now suggest that Nvidia has a gaming GPU inventory problem. An anonymous reader writes: Tech news site SemiAccurate which covers the GPU space pretty closely, and has broken stories like AMD's acquisition of ATI Technologies and Nvidia's Bumpgate, just published an article on why Nvidia has delayed their new gaming GPUs. It seems the Hot Chips 30 agenda cancellation and Jensen's no new GPUs for 'a long time' comment have created enough of a stir to get journalists and industry insiders asking questions. While curiosity amongst all this confusion is natural, I was surprised to discover that people were starting to speculate Nvidia's delay was due to technical issues with their new GPUs. This had never been a concern of mine, and as it turns out, it's clearly not the case. So, what the problem? Nvidia has overestimated pent-up gaming demand and underestimated the impact of declining mining demand.

17 of 83 comments (clear)

  1. I will take some off there hands for free! by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 4, Funny

    I will take some off there hands for free!.

  2. Hard to decipher what the story is... by Fly+Swatter · · Score: 2

    But if the problem is excess inventory they have to sell near a loss, well that's what you get for creating a false supply shortage to drive up prices.

    1. Re:Hard to decipher what the story is... by EvilSS · · Score: 5, Insightful

      But if the problem is excess inventory they have to sell near a loss, well that's what you get for creating a false supply shortage to drive up prices.

      or they just don't release the new chips because AMD can't get their shit together on the GPU side, and sell off the inventory at normal prices.

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      I browse on +1 so AC's need not respond, I won't see it.
    2. Re:Hard to decipher what the story is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There may also be the problem of lengthening release cycles of AAA games that are ever more expensive to produce, inflated RAM prices that delay system upgrades and so lessen any associated GPU demand. Still, a 40% price inflation in Nvidia products alone is enough to give a second though for any young gamers who wants to spend their money on new games that are also more expensive than before. Meanwhile the miners brag how they scored another five cards with those prices.

    3. Re:Hard to decipher what the story is... by Mashiki · · Score: 2

      They have excess inventory because the bottom fell out of the mining game with lenders no longer giving money out for people to build the machines. Once that happened, they were stuck with inventory that is going no where because they didn't see the market trend.

      The upside is that this will drive the costs of cards way down, and since they massively missed the market it'll be a good chance to get a card if you're using an older one.

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      Om, nomnomnom...
  3. price fixing. by Killall+-9+Bash · · Score: 3, Informative

    GPU prices have not dropped in the last few months, despite drop in demand, and oversupply.

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    "Prediction: within 10 years, Windows will be a Linux distribution." Me, 7-6-2016
    1. Re:price fixing. by Whorhay · · Score: 2

      Every time I see an article talking about how the prices are coming down I go and look, and surprise everything is still really expensive. For instance only a few sketchy places are advertising new 1080's for under the MSRP that was listed a year ago.

    2. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      its almost 2 years old, let me just shit my pants that its now at 2016 MSRP

  4. Still too expensive by ruddk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So lower the price. The cheapest 1080 gtx I can find right now, is still $100 higher than what I paid last summer.

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    L'Idiot
    1. Re:Still too expensive by Kulahan · · Score: 2

      I can assure you they promised certain profits to their shareholders which they cannot possibly meet at lower prices, so they're instead trying to drive up demand by promising the current available GPU is the best you can get for years to come.

  5. full disclosure, at the very end by pjrc · · Score: 4, Informative

    The author admits he has shorted nVidia's stock at the very end of the article, on the 3rd page.

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    PJRC: Electronic Projects, 8051 Microcontroller Tools
  6. A whole lot of factors by PhrostyMcByte · · Score: 2

    The mining causing prices to skyrocket also had the effect of making gamers not upgrade their GPUs, and now that the current lineup is old they will probably be waiting for the next version to come out.

    You also have godlike 4K HDR10 144Hz monitors that are about to start shipping, and no current GPU can handle that even on a lot of simpler titles. So people may be waiting to upgrade to something that can handle that.

    The altcoin mining craze seems to finally be dying down and prices are returning to normal, but it's too late. If gamers aren't crazy for these GPUs anymore, and miners aren't buying them either, it seems plausible that they'd have a lot of unsold inventory lying around.

    1. Re:A whole lot of factors by eth1 · · Score: 2

      ...and now that the current lineup is old they will probably be waiting for the next version to come out.

      Definitely this... I just built a new gaming rig two weeks ago, and swapped my 3-year-old 970 GTX into the new system. Nothing available right now is a sensible upgrade for the price, and the coy comments about a new GPU might as well have been, "You'd be an idiot to buy the current gen right now. We have new stuff, but it won't be available until we sell the old inventory to suckers."

      I know a few others doing the same. They really want to upgrade, but they're not going to buy the current gen, because it's too old now.

    2. Re:A whole lot of factors by Moof123 · · Score: 2

      This. I was interested in upgrading 6 months ago, but the crypto craze had prices beyond what is reasonable, so I waited. Now I'd rather wait a while longer for the next generation unless there are some sweet discounts (unlikely). 4K at >60 Hz is a big want. I'd also really like to see some unified G-Sync/FreeSync standard come along, preferable without the 2-3x monitor markup.

  7. Nvidia may be in for some difficult times by foxalopex · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I've used both Nvidia's and AMD's (Formerly ATI) graphics cards but have never been a huge fan of Nvidia's almost monopolistic practices so I tend to get AMD cards whenever I can. Still I would say Nvidia has a lot to worry about on it's hands. Although AMD and Intel are competitors, they do have times that they work together closely and Intel's next gen GPU are signs that they will. Unlike Nvidia, Intel is likely to be working on open standards with AMD and their recent joint CPU / GPU project looks like they'll be able to do so.

  8. Allow Data Centre Use by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I bet there are quite a few who would happily pay for them if they removed the license restrictions they added to the driver that prevents the use of their cards (with their driver at least) in a data centre - unless used for blockchain processing.

  9. Can't wait for the lawsuit by slashmydots · · Score: 2

    So there's a massive shortage, cards are (or very recently were) sold out everywhere, prices are up like 30% minimum, and some vendor was sitting on 300,000 cards? Holding them for ransom at a higher than MSRP price and then sending them back to Nvidia when gamers don't play along, huh? THAT'S CALLED PRICE FIXING. Have fun in jail.