Slashdot Mirror
Intel Is in an Increasingly Bad Position in Part Because It Has Been Captive To Its Integrated Model (stratechery.com)
Once one of the Valley's most important companies, Intel is increasingly finding itself in a bad position, in part because of its major bet on integration model. Ben Thompson, writing for Stratechery: When Krzanich was appointed CEO in 2013 it was already clear that arguably the most important company in Silicon Valley's history was in trouble: PCs, long Intel's chief money-maker, were in decline, leaving the company ever more reliant on the sale of high-end chips to data centers; Intel had effectively zero presence in mobile, the industry's other major growth area. [...] [Analyst] Ben Bajarin wrote last week in Intel's Moment of Truth. As Bajarin notes, 7nm for TSMC (or Samsung or Global Foundries) isn't necessarily better than Intel's 10nm; chip-labeling isn't what it used to be. The problem is that Intel's 10nm process isn't close to shipping at volume, and the competition's 7nm processes are. Intel is behind, and its insistence on integration bears a large part of the blame.
The first major miss [for Intel] was mobile: instead of simply manufacturing ARM chips for the iPhone the company presumed it could win by leveraging its manufacturing to create a more-efficient x86 chip; it was a decision that evinced too much knowledge of Intel's margins and not nearly enough reflection on the importance of the integration between DOS/Windows and x86. Intel took the same mistaken approach to non general-purpose processors, particularly graphics: the company's Larrabee architecture was a graphics chip based on -- you guessed it -- x86; it was predicated on leveraging Intel's integration, instead of actually meeting a market need. Once the project predictably failed Intel limped along with graphics that were barely passable for general purpose displays, and worthless for all of the new use cases that were emerging. The latest crisis, though, is in design: AMD is genuinely innovating with its Ryzen processors (manufactured by both GlobalFoundries and TSMC), while Intel is still selling varations on Skylake, a three year-old design.
The first major miss [for Intel] was mobile: instead of simply manufacturing ARM chips for the iPhone the company presumed it could win by leveraging its manufacturing to create a more-efficient x86 chip; it was a decision that evinced too much knowledge of Intel's margins and not nearly enough reflection on the importance of the integration between DOS/Windows and x86. Intel took the same mistaken approach to non general-purpose processors, particularly graphics: the company's Larrabee architecture was a graphics chip based on -- you guessed it -- x86; it was predicated on leveraging Intel's integration, instead of actually meeting a market need. Once the project predictably failed Intel limped along with graphics that were barely passable for general purpose displays, and worthless for all of the new use cases that were emerging. The latest crisis, though, is in design: AMD is genuinely innovating with its Ryzen processors (manufactured by both GlobalFoundries and TSMC), while Intel is still selling varations on Skylake, a three year-old design.
Moore's law is about transistors per unit area. Adding cores increases both. Only new manufacturing techniques to cram in more transistors will let the trend continue, and they are indeed pushing the limits of what's physically possible.
At 7nm we're talking features that are only about three dozen atoms wide. The current roadmap has 5nm production in a few years. This kind of thing is well outside my knowledge but I'm pretty confident you can't make devices smaller than a single atom, so they are rapidly approaching a wall one way or another!
=Smidge=
"Can you image intel graphics on a tablet? It's already been done, hint, they suck, have poor performance, and are power hungry. Guess what, I want to be able to watch more than one video in HD before the battery dies, or the tablet becomes hotter than the surface of the sun."
Meanwhile, my Chromebook does 16 hours of 1080p video using a Celeron N3150.
Apparently your definition of high performance means "emulate the universe" when in reality the performance issue is with the people coding their applications and web pages.
Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
Yeah, those of us who climbed up from the bottom really do like meritocracy, because we know that people got there on skill, ability, and competence.
I am also one of those people. And I know why so many of us are so bitter about seeing handouts. We struggled, and we want to see other people struggle too. It's some kind of messed up desire for fairness, when really, we should be trying to make sure nobody else has to go through the bullshit we did to succeed. The part you missed in the above formula is actually the largest factor- luck. Get over yourself, asshole.
Guys like the poster think that is going to continue forever. But it won't (and hasn't).
Nobody said it will "continue forever". He just said it is not dead yet, and it isn't. Single thread CPU speed has stalled, but transistor density is still increasing.
Why do you have so much invested in insisting that "Moore's Law is dead" anyway? You go to every discussion about this topic and post the same nonsense over and over. You do the same thing in every discussion about AI or machine learning, insisting that AI isn't "real" because it doesn't match what you see in the movies. Maybe you should see a psychiatrist and find out what is driving your weird obsessions.