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Bitcoin Drops Below $6,000, An 8-Month Low (reuters.com)

An anonymous reader quotes Reuters: Bitcoin's value slid to its lowest level since November on Friday, as waning investor interest and recent negative headlines from global regulators weakened demand for the cryptocurrency and most of its rivals. Virtual currencies, including the best-known and biggest, bitcoin, have been stuck in a downward trend for most of 2018 after last year's frenzied interest fizzled. Recent hacks and the "cyber intrusion" of cryptocurrency exchanges in key Asian markets has also encouraged investors to exit.

Bitcoin fell to as low as $5,774 on the Bitstamp exchange, the lowest since November 12... So far in 2018, bitcoin has tumbled almost 60 percent after soaring more than 1,300 percent last year. It is now down 70 percent from its December peak... The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen to around $230 billion from a peak of around $800 billion in January.

Will Hobbs, Head of Investment Strategy at Barclays Smart Investor, now tells Reuters that "None of the crypto currencies currently fulfill any of the criteria that we would look for in an investible asset, and we would continue to advise extreme caution. The rout in crypto currencies is still not finished."

58 of 106 comments (clear)

  1. Going further down soon by InvalidsYnc · · Score: 1

    My guess is that within the next 5 days (maybe as many as 15, but probably closer to 5) it will go back down to between $5000 and $5500, basing it off of the unscientific theory of what my gut says.

    So this means that all you peeps that want to get in and HODL at a lower price will have your chance.

    Let the games begin!

    1. Re:Going further down soon by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

      basing it off of the unscientific theory of what my gut says

      That's conforting!

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    2. Re: Going further down soon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      God I hope not, I need it to hit at least $10k soon or my wife will find out I refinanced our house to buy more bitcoin.

    3. Re:Going further down soon by Joce640k · · Score: 2

      Wasn't it supposed to be over a million by now? I haven't been paying much attention.

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    4. Re: Going further down soon by Joce640k · · Score: 2

      Sell now and switch to Ethereum, that's a sure thing.

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    5. Re:Going further down soon by Arkham · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Hopefully it will drop down to zero where its actual value is.

      --
      - Vincit qui patitur.
    6. Re: Going further down soon by triffid_98 · · Score: 1

      So your saying we should short Nvidia GTX futures? (Yes I know hardcore miners don't use those anymore). This is fiat currency and always has been, it's just that you can't go full Zimbabwe and start printing million dollar bills. If the market decides it's worthless paper the effect is the same.

    7. Re: Going further down soon by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      Hey, do you know how many Dogecoin you could buy for $500K? He could corner the Dogecoin market and do a 51% attack on himself and essentially become a trillionaire overnight!

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    8. Re:Going further down soon by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Nah, just over $100,000 was the prediction. So only missed by 94%!

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    9. Re: Going further down soon by InvalidsYnc · · Score: 1

      Not too late. This is normal behavior. As they say: "Wait for it! Wait for it!" ;-)

      Just give it some time, i'll drop again.

      And I guess I must ask, why will you be dropping again? And dropping how (or what)?

    10. Re:Going further down soon by slashmydots · · Score: 1

      Aaaaaaand it's back to $6400.

    11. Re: Going further down soon by GrandCow · · Score: 1

      WOOSH

      That's the sound of a joke sailing way over your head.

      --
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    12. Re: Going further down soon by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      ACs have no sense of humor...

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  2. It's a good time to buy BTC! by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

    Or not. NOBODY KNOWS

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
    1. Re:It's a good time to buy BTC! by careysub · · Score: 1

      This is the difference between investing and gambling.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    2. Re:It's a good time to buy BTC! by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      At least with gambling in Vegas, you can get a free drink whilst letting it ride...

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    3. Re:It's a good time to buy BTC! by perpenso · · Score: 1

      At least with gambling in Vegas, you can get a free drink whilst letting it ride...

      TANSTAAFL, or a free drink. ;-)

    4. Re:It's a good time to buy BTC! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      This is the difference between investing and gambling.

      This ain't even gambling. I can do a lot better at the blackjack tables than people who buy bitcoin in 2018.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  3. Alt Headlines: by DalM · · Score: 1, Insightful

    "BitCoin defies logic by remaining just under $6000 over priced."

    "Fratboys across the country pissed as their 'sure thing' trust fund investment continues to fall"

    "Drug dealers pleased to inform customers of lower bitcoin prices to increase sales"

    1. Re:Alt Headlines: by quantaman · · Score: 1

      "Drug dealers pleased to inform customers of lower bitcoin prices to increase sales"

      Sadly, I don't think that's the case.

      The importance of crypto-currency to the black market is that it exists at all, the value is almost irrelevant. As long as they can convert to-from the fiat currency, and then anonymize the exchange with the crypto-currency (depends on the specific currency), they're fine.

      The only sketchy activity this might cut down on it's the hackers, the lower the reward for mining the fewer people looking to hijack your devices.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    2. Re: Alt Headlines: by DalM · · Score: 1

      Sure thing, Anonymous Coward.

  4. Just wish... by Ronin+Developer · · Score: 2

    I was the pizza guy who received the first BTC (assuming I didnâ(TM)t lose them).

    There is still too much corruption and non-hardened exchanges for me to take BTC seriously.

    However, the tech is cool and some people made a lot of money.

    1. Re:Just wish... by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      and non-hardened exchanges

      Why do you need your exchanges to be hardened? Keep your wallet to yourself.

    2. Re:Just wish... by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

      Why do you need your exchanges to be hardened? Keep your wallet to yourself.

      Because exchanges typically require you to submit a lot of rather personal information to use... there aren't many that will simply cut you a cheque. They all insist on some sort of banking information and many are required to submit tax information as well.

      Naturally, if the exchange can't be trusted with the information, that's a lot of juicy personal identify theft information ready for stealing.

      Buying bitcoin is remarkably simple - plenty of places will take your debit card info and charge you for it (though again, you might have second thoughts about giving them access to your bank account). Converting it back out still remains a challenge.

    3. Re:Just wish... by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Right I was thinking in terms of the BTC itself.

      Speaking of banking information, can you help me with something: Why do people in the USA insist on keeping this stuff secret? Do your banks typically allow others to withdraw from your account with your bank details? In most places I've lived that just isn't the case and I have no problem giving people bank account numbers, in fact I actively do because usually when I do the balance increases.

    4. Re:Just wish... by Rolgar · · Score: 1

      Surely the transaction was completed digitally before the pizza was delivered.

  5. Re:It's actually up 8% by arth1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's actually up 8% since yesterday. That's an awesome return for 1 day. This is more proof of why investment analysts do worse the the market as a whole.... They are either lying or don't know what they are talking about. I'll assume the later.

    And the last time I played Black Jack, I got a 100% payout. Now that's an even more awesome return for 1 day.

    If you don't understand statistics and stochastics, don't come crying once you've lost.

  6. This is good news for Bitcoin by squiggleslash · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Actually it possibly is. If Bitcoin is slowly inflating, rather than violently oscillating between extremes, it might start to be possible to take it seriously as a "currency".

    --
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    1. Re:This is good news for Bitcoin by ISayWeOnlyToBePolite · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually it possibly is. If Bitcoin is slowly inflating, rather than violently oscillating between extremes, it might start to be possible to take it seriously as a "currency".

      Your hypothesis might be correct, but for the fact that bitcoin by no reasonable definition is "slowly" inflating.

    2. Re:This is good news for Bitcoin by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      If Bitcoin is slowly inflating

      It's not. It's massively price correcting after a huge bubble.

    3. Re:This is good news for Bitcoin by swillden · · Score: 1

      If Bitcoin is slowly inflating, rather than violently oscillating between extremes, it might start to be possible to take it seriously as a "currency".

      Per arth1 above, it's up 8% since yesterday. So, still violently oscillating.

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  7. Bag Hodlers by DatbeDank · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Time to call them what they are.

    1. Re:Bag Hodlers by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Bitcoin has a hard limit of 2022-2024 after which the protocol can't be hacked to be safe vs quantum computers. The issue is that post-quantum signature schemes require a switch to them BEFORE the first quantum computer capable of Shor's algorithm comes out around that time. That switch has to be initiated by every wallet holder with any coins - and the smallest sizes for public key and signature combinations for that first transaction come in around 35KB combined. There are currently just under 25 million Bitcoin wallets in use and that number has grown exponentially year-over-year (in part as the necessity to do so to maintain some semblance of anonymity, so that's likely not going to change.) That means just that initial change without adjustment for the numbers of wallets in the next few years (just what currently exists) will be a blockchain 875 GB in size - just for the cutover, no actual transactions. Now add in the next 4 years of wallet count growth (on the low end,) and you get a hair under 13.5 TB for the actual cutover. Now consider that public key is the SMALL PART in every post-quantum signature scheme - every single signature requires about 30KB in addition to the data you're signing, which is trivial in comparison, so let's just call it 30KB/transaction. We're at about 150k transactions/DAY right now (after the introduction of the lightning network, before that it was about 350k/day and due to limitations of post-quantum protocols you can't make it fit a similar scheme to the lightning network - but Hell, let's be super liberal and pretend some miracles happen to keep the transaction count no higher than 150k/day and counting at that minimal growth rate previously defined.) That means by 2022 we're looking at an additional 72 GB/DAY in transactional data at the baseline - or an additional 26.3 TB/year of added transactions that first year post-cutover. That means every single user who wants to verify a transaction is secure requires at a bare minimum needs 39.8 TB to make it through the first year in addition to the current measly 173 GB size. Now take in a more realistic account by dropping the lightning network functionality and you're looking at 168 GB/DAY or 61.4 TB/year additional data.

      The short of all this: Bitcoin has 4 years left before it is entirely worthless, 7 at the outset.

    2. Re:Bag Hodlers by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

      This is a lie.

    3. Re:Bag Hodlers by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 2

      Given the rate of quantum computing development we have 4-7 years (at most) before Shor's algorithm can be used to break any pre-quantum cryptographic algorithm. I outlined the reasons why post-quantum algorithms are unsuitable for use in a blockchain like Bitcoin very clearly. But go on, show the solution if you insist on pumping your fake money.

  8. And today it's above $6,300... by EvilSS · · Score: 2

    ...and up 5.36% (at 2pm EDT) for the week so can we stop spamming click-bait stories every time BTC wobbles? It's erratic and unstable, we all know that. It goes up, it goes down, it goes round and round.

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    1. Re:And today it's above $6,300... by Joce640k · · Score: 3, Interesting

      ...and up 5.36% (at 2pm EDT) for the week.

      Only because there was another mini-crash exactly 7 days ago.

      If you look at 8 or 6 days, it's down.

      If you look at 30 days, it's down... a LOT.

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    2. Re:And today it's above $6,300... by Tjp($)pjT · · Score: 2

      If you look over a year, it’s up. A lot.

      --
      - Tjp

      I am in wallow with my inner money grubbing capitalistic pig. ... Oink!

    3. Re:And today it's above $6,300... by DRJlaw · · Score: 1

      and if you look back 1 year (6 months, whatever). It's UP MASSIVELY! Like insanely up. BItcoin even at $2k is up beyond imagination. It's a good thing and you would have to be stupid not to take advantage while you can.

      I would have to be stupid not to go back 1 year in time and buy bitcoin. But I wasn't stupid 6 months ago to refuse to buy into bitcoin, and I'm reasonably certain that I'm not stupid in continuing to refuse to do so.

      Hindsight investing is not investing. Speculation is not investing. So many things about bitcoin scream "not investing."

  9. Someone tell when... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    ...bitcoin actually becomes a seamless, ubiquitous and useful currency and is not just an instrument of speculation and gambling for desperate suckers. In the meantime, I will just keep accumulating greenbacks.

  10. Over reasonable investment periods it is up a lot by Nkwe · · Score: 1

    One year ago it was about $2,400. For US tax purposes, long term investing starts at a year of holding an asset. So for the minimum definition of a long term investing, bitcoin has more then tripped. At this very moment it's up 262% over the last year. Now of course most sane people would say that bitcoin is gambling not not investing, but for those that insist it's investing, an over 250% return in a year is pretty damn good. Two years ago the price was about $650 or a 974% return. Three years ago it was about $250 or a 2533% return.

  11. Re:old news by Joce640k · · Score: 2

    The Chinese gang who own most Bitcoins can afford to buy back a few at inflated prices to make you think it's "recovering", yes.

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  12. Re:Over reasonable investment periods it is up a l by Nkwe · · Score: 1

    Should have read "and not investing", I didn't intend a double negative.

  13. We need it to go down further. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Hopefully as more halving cycles occur most miners will give up as it's not worth the effort, reducing the damage to the planet in the process. I'd rather have a healthy planet than some fancy 0s and 1s.

  14. The story isn't about wobbles by bjdevil66 · · Score: 1

    The story (click-bait or not) is about the overarching trend - which is, "Sell, sell, SELL!" $20,000 down to $6300 is quite a turn in a matter of six months.

    Like another person suggested already: Current Bitcoin owners are holding the hyper-inflated bag of Dutch tulips.

  15. Re: old news by Joce640k · · Score: 1
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  16. Re: old news by Tjp($)pjT · · Score: 1

    Well, mandatory admonishment for the ad hominem attack, and suggestion you go to cox.io and watch the transactions real-time there.

    --
    - Tjp

    I am in wallow with my inner money grubbing capitalistic pig. ... Oink!

  17. Greater fool theory by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    Bitcoin seems to be the tech equivalent of playing the lottery. I know several out of work techs, under employed or underpaid techs who bought a bit of some odd ball currency to see if they could make it rich. Mostly those "Proof of Stake" schemes.

    I don't think Bitcoin's value will drop too much more. Maybe to $5k. Money laundering and drug traffic will keep it around there. I could be wrong though. Canada just legalized pot. If the US follow suit (it would require Trump losing in 2020 since his people are vehemently opposed to legalization even if he doesn't care; maybe even a few senate seats and the Dems taking the house...) then that'll drop it below $3k. Crack down on money laundering and currency manipulation and we might see it back below a grand. But it would take all those things.

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  18. Re:It's actually up 8% by OneHundredAndTen · · Score: 1

    It's actually up 8% since yesterday. That's an awesome return for 1 day.

    Because it is a gamble, not an investment. Gambling sometimes pays off. But it mostly does not.

  19. Re:It's actually up 8% by Brett+Buck · · Score: 1

    It's almost as if the gambling is set up by organized operations just to rip you off or something.

  20. Re: old news by reanjr · · Score: 1

    Except volume is up too. Typically one manipulates a market by taking advantage of opportunities to move the market on the cheap.

  21. $20K to $5K matches previous BTC corrections by perpenso · · Score: 1

    My guess is that within the next 5 days (maybe as many as 15, but probably closer to 5) it will go back down to between $5000 and $5500, basing it off of the unscientific theory of what my gut says.

    Well a few months ago an Ars Technica article pointed out that Bitcoin has had 3 declines of about 75% and then plateaued at that point for 2 or 3 years. So $20K'ish to $5K'ish is about right using the existing pattern. In general, not necessarily on your stated timeframe.

    Of course the previous patterns were established with speculators coming from the techie community, this time around we have had a massive influx of new speculators from wall street.

    1. Re:$20K to $5K matches previous BTC corrections by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      $20K to $5K matches previous BTC corrections

      Dude, correction territory is a 10-15% decline. $20k to $5k isn't a correction, it's a goddamn bloodbath.

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    2. Re:$20K to $5K matches previous BTC corrections by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

      Not when its gone up 1300%.

      Oh, especially when it's gone up %1300. Because that means most of the money invested in Bitcoin was done when it was above $10,000. Those people got slaughtered. And since many of the people who got in early added to their portfolios as it went up, they got hurt, too.

      Right now, the only think keeping it afloat is that the Wall Street guys are doing the reverse of the "pump and dump", trying to get out of bitcoin. Once they do, you won't be able to buy a Beanie Baby with a bitcoin.

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  22. Re: old news by InvalidsYnc · · Score: 1

    Watch for the volume to go way up, but not spike the price overly much, then the volume will trend down, and then shortly after the volume stabilizes at a low volume (relatively low) the price will begin to plummet. Anyway, that's what "My Gut"(TM) says.

  23. 75% down after 5,000% up is not a bloodbath by perpenso · · Score: 1

    $20K to $5K matches previous BTC corrections

    Dude, correction territory is a 10-15% decline. $20k to $5k isn't a correction, it's a goddamn bloodbath.

    Not for bitcoin. Wild extremes are the norm. Also you must consider the exponential rise from $400 to $20,000, a correction to $5,000 is not a bloodbath to some. As was the 2014 exponential rise from $20 to $1,000, which was followed by a correction to $250, again not a bloodbath to some.

    Its hardly fair to call a 75% decline a bloodbath when that peak it is referenced against represents a recent 5,000% increase.

    It is inappropriate to apply the normal rules and perspectives of investing in traditional stocks and commodities to Bitcoin.

  24. Tron by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

    Time to buy tron. Much better model.

  25. Today, I absolutely WOULD NOT.. by Stubbyfingers · · Score: 1

    But GOD I wish I'd had $100 worth of Bitcoin when it was still kinda young.

    I'd be a millionaire several times over.

    But, honestly, it always has seemed less reliable than the Lottery.

    Seriously guys.