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'A Lot of Hoped-for Automation Was Counterproductive', Remembers Elon Musk (bloomberg.com)
Thursday Elon Musk gave a surprisingly candid interview about Tesla's massive push to increase production of Model 3 sedans to 5,000 a week. An anonymous reader quotes Musk's remarks to Bloomberg:
I spent almost the entire time in the factory the final week, and yeah, it was essentially three months with a tiny break of like one day that I wasn't there. I was wearing the same clothes for five days. Yeah, it was really intense. And everybody else was really intense, too... I think we had to prove that we could make 5,000 cars in a week -- 5,000 Model 3s and at the same time make 2,000 S and X's, so essentially show that we could make 7,000 cars. We had to prove ourselves. The number of people who thought we would actually make it is very tiny, like vanishingly small. There was suddenly the credibility of the company, my credibility, you know, the credibility of the whole team. It was like, "Can you actually do this or not?"
There were a lot of issues that we had to address in order to do it. You know, we had to create the new general assembly line in basically less than a month -- to create it and get to an excess of a 1,000-cars-a-week rate in like four weeks... A lot of the hoped-for automation was counterproductive. It's not like we knew it would be bad, because why would we buy a ticket to hell...? A whole bunch of the robots are turned off, and it was reverted to a manual station because the robots kept faulting out. When the robot faults out -- like the vision system can't figure out how to put the object in -- then you've got to reset the system. You've got to manually seat the components. It stops the whole production line while you sort out why the robot faults out.
When the interviewer asks why that happens, Musk replies, "Because we were huge idiots and didn't know what we were doing. That's why."
There were a lot of issues that we had to address in order to do it. You know, we had to create the new general assembly line in basically less than a month -- to create it and get to an excess of a 1,000-cars-a-week rate in like four weeks... A lot of the hoped-for automation was counterproductive. It's not like we knew it would be bad, because why would we buy a ticket to hell...? A whole bunch of the robots are turned off, and it was reverted to a manual station because the robots kept faulting out. When the robot faults out -- like the vision system can't figure out how to put the object in -- then you've got to reset the system. You've got to manually seat the components. It stops the whole production line while you sort out why the robot faults out.
When the interviewer asks why that happens, Musk replies, "Because we were huge idiots and didn't know what we were doing. That's why."
For a large automation project like this, it's better to start with something you know works. That is, a human assembly line (or a mix like all factories have these days). Then instead of redesigning the whole thing from scratch, replace one humn component at a time. Then you have minimal risk. (That may notbe the best way to do it, but it is a way that works)
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
I don't like censorship, but seriously isn't it about time Slashdot took some measures to actively block this spamming cunt!
Would you prefer a hundred 'erm' and 'uhh' while he figures out how to phrase the next few words so it's both accurate and relatively unlikely to be taken out of context?
I have no idea why American interviews (and subtitles, I've noticed) don't do a bit of cleanup before posting but absolutely HAVE to be completely verbatim.
-=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
I think only Musk and his fanboys believed that they were smarter than the countless production engineers in 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry.
You are mixing up long-term success (visionary) with short-term success (being a huge idiot sometimes). But you probably did that on purpose and are just trolling. Well, I like to feed sometimes ;) I have karma to burn.
If you can't be a huge fucking idiot sometimes you will not accomplish anything in life. It's when we naively make our greatest mistakes, we grow the most as a human being. The point is, learning and not making the same mistake again.
Do you know anyone that can operate an automatic assembly-line from birth, like it's in their DNA, other than its own digestive tract? No? Indeed, didn't think so. Eating and shitting all over the place comes naturally, as we see often enough here in the comments. The rest we have to learn. Sometimes we can learn from others, but if we want to do something innovative, we have to learn the hard way. That means being huge idiots until you know how to do it right.
If you think you can do better than Musk, prove it to the world, or forever hold your peace.
I prefer filler words such as "like" as well as the occasional "erm" from people who actually think about what they have to say, over people who talk and talk and talk with practiced ease but without actually saying anything. Too many interviews are just lips making noise with years of media training behind it, and an interviewer unable to break through that barrier. That's why these interviews with Musk are unusual and refreshing: he actually has something to say, speaks his mind, and isn't as prone to evade questions.
If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
Ironically, that character flaw is also what has allowed him to succeed in breaking into markets the world thought he could never enter (upsetting established auto manufacturers with a tech electric startup, reusable rockets stealing market share from the Lockheeds of the world).
So maybe we ought to write it as “flaw” with the quotes instead.
Like the fairy-tale where one man runs a company that sends rockets in to space, is racing ahead with a luxury electric car company, produces leading battery storage for vehicles and properties and has some innovative solar products to boot.
Yeah, what an idiot, an intelligent person would have done far better. I'm not a Musk fan boy, but it's pretty obvious the man is no idiot.
It's just a shame he can't keep up with google WRT autonomous driving.
Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
That would depend on the price range and brand of vehicle? What other brands are making a product range at that quality and price?
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
How could Musk have possibly known that would happen? Just because he was operating in a factory he bought from GM, which went through the exact same process in the 1980s and the failures of excess automation in the assembly process were well documented in both the trade press and business press? No One Could Have Anticipated(tm).
Sometimes the people who have been doing something for 120 years are hidebound. And sometimes they really do know what they are doing.
[IMHO the stock market has done Telsa a real disservice by bidding up the stock price beyond reasonable levels. At the time Ford needed the cash it received from selling Land Rover and Jaguar, but now it really needs a new luxury division. Tesla would make an excellent division of Ford - but at the stock price that can't happen]
Many years ago (keep this in mind - things may have changed) I worked at an European company, designing and building production plants for the automotive industry, especially for the body shops.
A typical production line for European mid-sized cars had a theoretical capacity of fifty (50) car bodies per hour - that would be at 100% efficiency, actual yeld was lower but not much. A typical production facility for non-premium class cars had two production lines running in parallel on two eight-hour shifts per day (third shift for clean-up and maintenance), five days a week. 50*2*8*2*5=8000 car bodies per week at 100% efficiency (as I said, actual yeld was something less than that). Of course, most manufacturers had (still have) more than one facility running.
Premium / luxury production lines are usually smaller than that, of course. Think Ferrari.
I hope this is of interest.
In the long run we are all dead. - John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946)
You are mixing up long-term success (visionary) with short-term success (being a huge idiot sometimes). But you probably did that on purpose and are just trolling. Well, I like to feed sometimes ;) I have karma to burn.
If you can't be a huge fucking idiot sometimes you will not accomplish anything in life. It's when we naively make our greatest mistakes, we grow the most as a human being. The point is, learning and not making the same mistake again.
Do you know anyone that can operate an automatic assembly-line from birth, like it's in their DNA, other than its own digestive tract? No? Indeed, didn't think so. Eating and shitting all over the place comes naturally, as we see often enough here in the comments. The rest we have to learn. Sometimes we can learn from others, but if we want to do something innovative, we have to learn the hard way. That means being huge idiots until you know how to do it right.
If you think you can do better than Musk, prove it to the world, or forever hold your peace.
Well said.
It's so easy to never fail. Just never try anything and spend all your time criticizing others who do.
Re: character flaw, calling the diver in the Thailand rescue a pedophile this morning lends credence to the fact that he doesn't listen to his large investors, let alone those related to development of the company's product.
https://twitter.com/MidwestHed...
https://twitter.com/TeslaChart...
A while back Baillie clearly told him to shut up with the unprofessional tweeting and focus on the work. And it seems they're not alone. The other large funds are clearly spooked by the balance sheet, product defects and CEO behavior and have been dumping their common positions (i.e. the least-senior in bankruptcy). Fidelity primarily but even TRowe, the most steadfast, is showing signs they fear the worst: https://twitter.com/WintonCapP...).
Of course if we have truly have entered an era where you can say anything without repercussion from other stakeholders, and can make your own reality, then none of this matters and the cult mentality will continue. What that says about the future of corporate governance and execution in this country is left as an exercise to the reader.
And that is why Musk is successful. He may only be a mediocre engineer, but he is not only able to learn, he is able to be brutally honest with himself and that puts him far ahead of the crowd.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
Musk decided to ignore the comments and advice of experienced automotive engineers and industrial designers. There are easily twenty other car manufacturers out there that learned the lessons that Tesla is relearning now. The lessons that Tesla is learning now are the ones all the other car makers have as their daily mantra:
1. Have an assembly line with the lowest downtime and most consistent production rate available.
2. Research improvements to the line. Develop a replacement station/process for particular portions of the assembly. Test and debug the new process so it is as reliable and as fast as the previous process. Once the new process is refined and complete - Then change the assembly line.
3. Retrain the workers once in the new process. Go forward in the new manufacturing process.
4. Understand the "Pull method" of manufacturing. Toyota implemented it in the 70's and 80's and forced everyone else to get on the band wagon.
Yes, this sounds boring. But the big boys out there all know that the things that kill profitability is: downtime, reliability, rework, supply chain foul ups, and warranty work. So unless the new process improves all of these things, it won't be changed.
Architectural plans are like computer source code with a couple of differences: You only compile once.
Come with me
And you'll be
In a world of Tesla Automation
Take a look
And you'll see
Tesla Automation
We'll begin
With a spin
Traveling in
The world of Musks' creation
What we'll see
Will defy
Explanation
If you want to view paradise
Simply look around and view it
Anything you want to, do it
Want to change the world?
There's nothing to it
There is no
Life I know
To compare with pure automation
Living there
You'll be free
If you truly wish to be
If you want to see Martian lands
Close your eyes and you will see one
Want to be a dreamer, be one
Anytime you please and please save me one