'A Lot of Hoped-for Automation Was Counterproductive', Remembers Elon Musk (bloomberg.com)

Thursday Elon Musk gave a surprisingly candid interview about Tesla's massive push to increase production of Model 3 sedans to 5,000 a week. An anonymous reader quotes Musk's remarks to Bloomberg: I spent almost the entire time in the factory the final week, and yeah, it was essentially three months with a tiny break of like one day that I wasn't there. I was wearing the same clothes for five days. Yeah, it was really intense. And everybody else was really intense, too... I think we had to prove that we could make 5,000 cars in a week -- 5,000 Model 3s and at the same time make 2,000 S and X's, so essentially show that we could make 7,000 cars. We had to prove ourselves. The number of people who thought we would actually make it is very tiny, like vanishingly small. There was suddenly the credibility of the company, my credibility, you know, the credibility of the whole team. It was like, "Can you actually do this or not?"

There were a lot of issues that we had to address in order to do it. You know, we had to create the new general assembly line in basically less than a month -- to create it and get to an excess of a 1,000-cars-a-week rate in like four weeks... A lot of the hoped-for automation was counterproductive. It's not like we knew it would be bad, because why would we buy a ticket to hell...? A whole bunch of the robots are turned off, and it was reverted to a manual station because the robots kept faulting out. When the robot faults out -- like the vision system can't figure out how to put the object in -- then you've got to reset the system. You've got to manually seat the components. It stops the whole production line while you sort out why the robot faults out.
When the interviewer asks why that happens, Musk replies, "Because we were huge idiots and didn't know what we were doing. That's why."

Comments

best way to do it

[phantomfive]

For a large automation project like this, it's better to start with something you know works. That is, a human assembly line (or a mix like all factories have these days). Then instead of redesigning the whole thing from scratch, replace one humn component at a time. Then you have minimal risk. (That may notbe the best way to do it, but it is a way that works)

Re:best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Nothing particularly wrong with automation. I deal with it all the time, but my production is predictable, has accumulation to deal for errors and gives me a lot of balance. I find automation that starts to deal with vision systems where things completely fall apart. I've yet to find a "good" vision system, they're all pretty primitive, even for quality control, but if you allow for errors, you can develop things to mitigate the inherit problems with it.

I don't know what Tesla's automation has or what particular situation they have, but I'm sure they have good people trying to think of new ways to automate things. But I do run into a lot of designers trying to eliminate any type of accumulation system (Because it takes up a lot of space) and then utterly fail because of low tolerances in the system. Human error translates into computer systems multiplied by a huge factor.

Re:best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Exactly!

I have a hearing loss in one ear, so my audio will always be suspect. I use a Zoom H2 audio recorder with a pop filter 12" away from my mouth, Audacity to clean up and normalize the audio, and sync the audio to the video and apply a "voice enhancement" eq to the audio in the video editor.

My PC has an eight-core processor and a Nvidia 1050 Ti 4GB video card. A minute of 1080p video renedered on the processor takes a minute. A minute of 1080p video rendered on the Nvidia card takes 10 seconds. I don't think an iPad has the same performance of my PC for rendering videos longer than a short clip.

I can't imagine using Photoshop without a keyboard and mouse, or not being able to access my files from my file server. Video rendering on the iPad will probably suck donkey balls.

Blackmagic also charges high prices for their gear as Apple does. Need an HDMI to USB3 capture device? Blackmagic is $300. Any generic company is $50.

I take public transit. A local bus take me down the street to pick up the express bus, the express bus drops me off in Palo Alto, and a local bus take me down the street to my job. An hour each way. Driving through Palo Alto during rush hour is insane. Since I work in government I.T., I start work at 7:00AM.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Surely I can't be the only one who would enjoy this fake creimer spammer dying from cancer.

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Agreed 100%

Re:best way to do it

[Mr D from 63]

For a large automation project like this, it's better to start with something you know works.....

But I've been told that because Musk could land a rocket booster, he was absolutely going to be able revolutionize the car assembly line. It perfect logic, right?

The problem for Musk isn't that he's had to change his approach, the problem is that he now requires more assembly lines and labor than he planned, therefore production costs will remain higher than planned.

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Here is why creimer always talks about Stan Lee

Hey there, people, I'm creimy brown
They say I'm the cutest boy in town
My car is fast, my teeth is shiney
I tell all the girls they can kiss my heinie
Here I am at a famous school
I'm dressin sharp n I'm
Actin cool
I got a cheerleader here wants to help with my paper
Let her do all the work n maybe later I'll rape her

Oh God I am the american cream
I do not think I'm too extreme
An I'm a handsome sonofabitch
I'm gonna get a good job n be real rich

(get a good
Get a good
Get a good
Get a good job)

Womens liberation
Came creepin across the nation
I tell you people I was not ready
When I fucked this dyke by the name of Stan Lee
She made a little speech then,
Aw, she tried to make me say when
She had my balls in a vice, but she left the dick
I guess it's still hooked on, but now it shoots too quick

Oh God I am the american cream
But now I smell like vaseline
An I'm a miserable sonofabitch
Am I a boy or a lady... I don't know which

(I wonder wonder
Wonder wonder)

So I went out n bought me a leisure suit
I jingle my change, but I'm still kinda cute
Got a job doin video promo
An none of the jocks can even tell I'm a homo
Eventually me n a friend
Sorta drifted along into s&m
I can take about an hour on the tower of power
Long as I gets a little golden shower

Oh God I am the american cream
With a spindle up my butt till it makes me scream
An I'll do anything to get ahead
I lay awake nights sayin, thank you, Stan!
Oh god, oh god, I'm so fantastic!
Thanks to Stan Lee, I'm a sexual spastic
And my name is creimy brown
Watch me now, I'm goin down,
And my name is creimy brown
Watch me now, I'm goin down, etc.

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Hey! I remember watching that playlist! :)

Playlist details:

Video 1: Stan Lee coming to comic con
Video 2: Stan Lee not coming to comic con
Video 3: Stan Lee coming to comic con
Video 4: Stan Lee not coming to comic con
Video 5: Stan Lee coming to comic con
Video 6: Why I said Stan Lee was coming then, not coming to comic con

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Christopher, my love,

Never mind those "hump leg" trolls.

As I said in my previous post:
when I posted there was a funny form that asked me to retype the word "shoulders" in a text field. That's funny, I did a double-take and I went to look at your new picture again and got turned on. Please contact me ASAP.
Signed:
Ethell, Your sweetee who will love you for ever.

Re:best way to do it

[Mr D from 63]

From TFS;

................. A whole bunch of the robots are turned off, and it was reverted to a manual station because the robots kept faulting out. When the robot faults out -- like the vision system can't figure out how to put the object in -- then you've got to reset the system. You've got to manually seat the components. It stops the whole production line while you sort out why the robot faults out.

That seems to me a lack of fault tolerance in the overall design approach. A major oversight if so. An entire line should not shut down due to one fault.

I wonder how much $$$ was lost on that automation equipment now collecting dust.

Re:best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Exactly, get some Funko instead of Tesla!!!

Funko has been doubling each year for the last five years. I now own more shares of Funko stock than actual Funkos. I was so impressed with the investor presentation that I adopted it for my own YouTube content strategy.

That's why out of all my dividend-paying stocks that I've own, Funko is one of the riskiest stock that I own. Most anaylsts peg Funko as a speculative buyout target. It's more liklely to be bought out before the Funko bubble bursts.

Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018 has the same number of visitors (~70,000) and the same economic impact as Super Bowl 2018. SVCC is not even one of the larger comic cons in the US.

If you want to attend some tinfoil-hat action, check out AlienCon. The viewers of Ancient Aliens believe in alien abductions, abortions performed by aliens and MAGA when I attended AlienCon 2016 in Silicon Valley. AlienCon 2018 is coming to Baltimore in November. It will be interesting to see how "authoritative" YouTube will be with the UFO nutters.

Three reasons why Stan Lee had to be at Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018: 1) Steve Wozniak was schedueld to be M.I.A. from his own show while traveling back from Russia; 2) Jeff Goldblum cancelled his Sunday-only appearance to spend all three days at the Dallas Fan Expo 2018; and 3) Stan Lee's management team needed him to make them money by signing 400 comic books from comic book dealers for $50K.

I suspect most of my 1K+ followers are bots. Very few are real people. I just use my ten-year-old Twitter account to pimp my YouTube videos to comic con crowds over the weekends. I had 25.3K impressions and an average engagement rate of ~3% (that's great by traditional advertising standards) in the last 28 days.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re:best way to do it

[SWPadnos]

From TFS;

That seems to me a lack of fault tolerance in the overall design approach. A major oversight if so. An entire line should not shut down due to one fault.

Well, yes and no. Assembly lines are tuned so that you produce the correct quantity of each item in the same amount of time it takes to complete the "full product". It's called Takt time. There are just over 10,000 minutes in a week, so the production goal of 5,000 cars per week requires a new Model 3 to roll off the line every 2 minutes.

Let's say they're building the battery packs as part of the assembly line, and it takes 60 minutes to build each pack. Just for grins, let's assume that it takes 10 minutes to install that battery pack. This implies that you need 6x as many battery assembly stations (or sub-assembly lines) to make batteries as you need battery installation stations.

If you have a robot installing batteries, and that robot fails, then you want to stop making batteries before you fill up all the available space with battery packs you can't use (because you can't install them). Similarly, you no longer have chassis with batteries to move further down the line, so anything after the battery installation has to stop, at least for that line.

There is slack in the process - it might be 59:30 to build the packs or 9:18 to install them, and there would likely be some parts storage as well, so the line could whether an employee going to the bathroom or something. It couldn't whether a continuous failure or a permanent change in process time (ie, it may take a human 13 minutes to install the pack and inspect their work).

Most assembly lines work this way. The more slack you have, the less efficient your line is (because you have all this extra time ...). The less slack you have, the less you can tolerate a fault.

I wonder how much $$$ was lost on that automation equipment now collecting dust.

I'd bet most of the lost money is whatever was spent on programming the units, and the lost opportunity cost for both the hardware and its configuration. The robots themselves are likely still usable, but they'll need to refine how they're used in order to recoup that investment.

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

... is never by human hands. That's the most error-prone way. Humans get sloppy and cheat to make quotas and deadlines. Robots don't get paychecks that entitle them to life so theydont care.

He should have split the line and used two robots. that way if one fails the line slows during reset but never stops. then try and make the reset process faster.

Some libtards have more money than brains. ae911truth.org

Re:best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Also, it would be good idea to hire someone, who knows how stuff works in factory, as Elon Musk has billions form Paypal and has great ideas, that any drunk can tell - the only difference between him and them is that they ask for money to sponsor alcohol for them.

I have been in factories and they are very automated already. The only 2 reasons humans are there:
1. quality check - when assembly machinery is making garbage, it can do that until it runs out of materials
2. cleaning

I have not been in automotive, but I believe, that they might be similar to what Musk is building, only most of them still makes cars with combustion engines.

The only good thing that Elon Musk is producing is battery - provided, that it will be lower priced, than it is now. I hope, that there will be affordable competition(that I will own), as Musk is making monopoly on servicing his batteries and cars. Anyway - good luck with his factory and cars... because people will hate him, just like they start to hate amazon for online trading monopoly now.

Re: best way to do it

[UnknowingFool]

The problem is that automation works really well when the processes are established or the variance to an established process is minor. For example, automating the creation of Lego blocks for Lego is probably pretty easy. Automating a new sky blue variant of an existing block is even easier. A competitor automating a brand new line of toys that compete with Lego blocks is vastly more difficult.

Re: best way to do it

[UnknowingFool]

Also most automation is designed to handle a small number of faults because if a well tuned process produces only a small number. For large number of faults, it is hard to deal with automation or not. For example the famous Lucille Ball skit where she and her friend are working on a chocolate candy assembly line. At first she and her friend can deal with the mounting issues but as they start piling she resorts to eating the chocolate.

Re:best way to do it

[ElizabethGreene]

This slack time is a serious consideration as you get toward the tail of a production line. A mile-long production line is a hugely complex dependency chain. Each of the hundreds of individual steps might have 99% uptime, but since each depends on the next the real uptime is 50%.

Case in point: my father worked in the packaging/shipping area of an auto glass manufacturer. When the line had a problem he could go an entire shift or even two (with overtime!) with nothing to do. When things were running right, he could barely keep up.

The former was much more common than the latter.

Re:best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Plus they had huge quality problems before they tried to automate. I read an article a couple of years ago from a former employee that claimed they did between twenty and forty hours of manual repairs on each car after it left the assembly line. They should have targeted automation to the problems they typically have, although the guy did say there weren't that many common problems and often found new and interesting problems, but that's better than shotgunning automation.

Re:best way to do it

[viperidaenz]

Right... the production line should keep going, producing cars, for example with a control arm in the suspension, or no brake master cylinder?

What do you think should happen? If robot X fails to put on part A, what is robot Y supposed to do with part B that is supposed to be attached to the missing part A?

Re:best way to do it

[nnull]

There's a major push in the industry to build such designs. Lack of fault tolerance approaches like building accumulators or other error mitigation systems ends up eating a lot of floor space which to a lot of people buying machines don't like. However, most people don't understand that these mitigation techniques is what allows for increased production speed and allows for human error. From the looks of it, Tesla doesn't have enough floor space, so it doesn't surprise me they're trying to build a system with lack of fault tolerances.

You can see these type of machines at the convention shows. Sheeters and web processes now using open-loop systems with no accumulation. Bottling lines trying to give you incredible high speed without accumulation and very minimal fault tolerances. And guess what? All of these machines are actually causing a lot of headaches unless you have some incredibly bright people working for you to keep things running right. Which to me, this is just counter to what automation is supposed to bring when you have to have a guy sitting there fine tuning everything all the time. Sure, they cut down on floor space dramatically (And maybe lowers the overall cost of the machine? I don't think so), but at what price?

And then you get into vision control systems. I can tell you right now, there is no excellent vision control systems. They all suck and I highly doubt Tesla has built anything ground breaking unless they got into some serious AI development to make that leap ahead (Because it would bring a revolution in the manufacturing industry, even if Tesla tried to hide it, they wouldn't be able too). But from the sounds of the article, that hasn't happened. I've tried with vision systems, without error mitigation, you will fault out and stop an entire line. This is where proper procedures and secondary systems come into play. Sure, it's a lot of conveying systems and whatever, but this is what's required to design a properly engineered system.

Re:best way to do it

[Mr D from 63]

Right... the production line should keep going, producing cars, for example with a control arm in the suspension, or no brake master cylinder?

What do you think should happen? If robot X fails to put on part A, what is robot Y supposed to do with part B that is supposed to be attached to the missing part A?

Hmm, possibly a backup system, or a manual control to keep things going. Its not so much a brief stop in production, but as explained a complete reset of many items just due to one fault.

Re:best way to do it

[Mr D from 63]

Agree there is a balance that makes sense. Needed to do a complete line reset after one fault seems extreme though. Fault tolerance is not limited to 'keep going' but can also be 'quick recovery'.

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Vision control systems are not difficult if you know what you are doing and aren't trying it in an unreasonably chaotic environment.

I can play ping pong against my robot (arm). It's a five joint arm with a three finger claw grip. It usually wins unless I can cheese the hell out of it by working the corners and exceed the speed the servos can move it from one end to the other. If I spent a few grand to get faster machinery, even that wouldn't work.

That is a reasonable system for vision control. If I changed the ball color to the same color as a green screen Chroma key and painted everything that color, then that would be an unreasonable goal. Hmmm, at least for my current cameras, maybe infrared or UV options exist.

My acoustic based echo location tracking attempts failed once you got more than a meter away from the net to serve but that is more a radar guide than vision control at that point.

The point is, if you can neither control nor define the relevant operating conditions, then you don't understand the process well enough to automate it. Try building a VR model and automating that. When that works , have a (real) QA engineer do a malicious compliance test, stacking panels backwards, upside down, not having the knock out knocked out, etc. And see if the model recognizes and can correct the failure, (e.g. discard faulty panel), or if it tries to power through it blindly.

Re:best way to do it

[delt0r]

What you need is buffer chests.. But fan of buffer chest in Factori... oh wait. This is Real life, never mind.

Re:best way to do it

[aXis100]

I know that computer vision systems can be very sensitive to lighting changes. Part of me wonders if the new "tent" building added a complications in lighting consistency.

Re: best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

Cancer of the ass.

Re:best way to do it

[AuMatar]

Slight correction to your math- the 5000 goal was for all lines, and they had multiple lines. So they may have only needed one off a single line every 6-10 minutes.

Also, another way to add in slack is redundancy. If you need 6 battery assembly stations, build 7. That way 1 can be down at any time without slowing the line. That costs extra equipment, but in addition to fault tolerance it allows routine maintenance while the line is on.

Re:best way to do it

[Anonymous Coward]

TOTALLY amazed Musk didn't just drop in a blueprint and get logistics drones to do the trickier bits.

And ... solar panels? Really? That's so 0.14 ...

Re:best way to do it

[thegarbz]

For a large automation project like this, it's better to start with something you know works.

You're talking about a company that prides itself on technology and cutting edge, not bogged down by unions or 100 years of history. Honestly it's better for new blood to push the boundaries rather than playing it safe. It didn't work in this case. But if you start with something you know works then Musk's companies would be pushing ICE cars and super expensive rockets that can't be reused since after all everyone said that doesn't work.

Re:best way to do it

[thegarbz]

But I've been told that because Musk could land a rocket booster, he was absolutely going to be able revolutionize the car assembly line. It perfect logic, right?

It is perfect logic. You have to be able to take risks and try something new to achieve a new outcome. Ford did it too 90 years ago. Unfortunately innovation in the entire industry died in the 70s in favour of incremental engineering improvements.

Re:best way to do it

[bickerdyke]

Yes. But to paraphrase Ford, you'll end up with a better horse, not with a car.

Re:best way to do it

[pnutjam]

I've heard this is one of the things that killed GM in the 70's. Their line would never stop and they would "try" to intercept bad builds at the end and fix them.

Toyota rolled in and had a clear policy that anyone could and should stop the line if something went wrong.

If you want to hear more: https://www.thisamericanlife.o...

Re:best way to do it

[Mr D from 63]

So now your logic is.......because he takes risks he will revolutionize the car assembly line?

Not working very well.

Re:best way to do it

[thegarbz]

Only if you're incapable of rational thought do you come to that conclusion.

But hey you know a way to never fail: Don't take risks or try anything new. You know someone who could never do that? The auto industry.

Re:best way to do it

[Mr D from 63]

Only if you're incapable of rational thought do you come to that conclusion.

But hey you know a way to never fail: Don't take risks or try anything new. You know someone who could never do that? The auto industry.

So then tell me, by what logic does him taking risks lead to him revolutionizing auto production. To this point, his risk taking has been a big problem. He now uses more production lines than planned to produce the same amount of vehicles and he's caused delays that could have been avoided by using proven methods.

You know who hasn't made any advancement over well establish production capability....Musk, whose assembly line doesn't appear to be any improvement at all.

The auto industry has steadily improved assembly practices and optimized over many years. You dismiss the level of capability of established car makers, which itself is not logical.

Re:best way to do it

[thegarbz]

So then tell me, by what logic does him taking risks lead to him revolutionizing auto production.

It si revolutionary to take risks in the auto industry. If you were expecting a positive result with every risk then that is you incorrectly reading into what other people have said.

To this point, his risk taking has been a big problem.

Yeah I know. It made him a billionaire who successfully started multiple companies that have completed upsended their respective industries. He should have just bought a factory, employed 100 union fitters and cranked out ICE cars. That would be MUCH better. /sarcasm.

Not every risk needs to be perfectly successful for the process of risk taking to revolutionise something.

You know who hasn't made any advancement over well establish production capability....Musk

The man has gone from 0 cars to current production at a faster rate than any other car company in history producing a car that every other car company said couldn't be made and won't be practical. He decimated the cost of satellite launch.

But yeah your critisicism are totally valid random internet man.

The auto industry has steadily improved assembly practices and optimized over many years.

Exactly what I said. Nothing revolutionary, completely safe, never try anything new, ... getting their breakfast eaten in a emerging car trend by a company they have repeatedly dismissed and for all their production woes is worth just as much as they are. If the last 5 years are anything to go by, Ford, GM, etc will be lucky to exist in 30 years. ... Oh wait, they are lucky they exist anyway thanks to government bailing them out. Man that optimsiation worked well for them.

Re:best way to do it

[Mr D from 63]

Having fun parsing? How about making a cohesive point instead, like I did.

"it is revolution to take risks in the auto industry". What a laugh. Again, his risks in 'revolutionary' manufacturing have not resulted in any improvements at all. His production numbers are based on creating extra lines to make up for the under performance of the initial one, and also on working massive numbers of people 24/7 just to eek out numbers that he was supposed to hit months ago. And nobody ever said you couldn't build an EV, or Tesla couldn't build one. EVs have already been built. Tesla is still losing money.

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Re:I am God's gift to you rotten bastards... apk

[gravewax]

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Re:I am God's gift to you rotten bastards... apk

[Calydor]

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Re:I am God's gift to you rotten bastards... apk

[Anonymous Coward]

Are you saying that you like censorship?

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[Anonymous Coward]

If you didn't reply to him, I wouldn't even have known he was there. So maybe it's time we start banning people who reply to spam?

Re: I am God's gift to you rotten bastards... apk

[reanjr]

Truth. I once met someone who said they like opening spam and reading it. I wanted to punch them because they are the problem.

Re:I am God's gift to you rotten bastards... apk

[Anonymous Coward]

While I don't like him/her posting bullshit, that is the price we pay for allowing anonymous posting. And it is a price I am willing to pay so that we can remain anonymous. Also, the way /. works, the bullshit is automatically hidden from everyone's view by default.

Re: I am God's gift to you rotten bastards... apk

[Anonymous Coward]

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The purpose of their spamming and targeted cyber-stalking is to silence unapproved narratives. They do this by deterring free public discussion and poisoning any forum that does not implement censorship of unapproved viewpoints.

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Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[Anonymous Coward]

He certainly sounds like, well, someone who likes things a lot. Or maybe just that one word.

Re:Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[Calydor]

Would you prefer a hundred 'erm' and 'uhh' while he figures out how to phrase the next few words so it's both accurate and relatively unlikely to be taken out of context?

I have no idea why American interviews (and subtitles, I've noticed) don't do a bit of cleanup before posting but absolutely HAVE to be completely verbatim.

Re:Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[JaredOfEuropa]

I prefer filler words such as "like" as well as the occasional "erm" from people who actually think about what they have to say, over people who talk and talk and talk with practiced ease but without actually saying anything. Too many interviews are just lips making noise with years of media training behind it, and an interviewer unable to break through that barrier. That's why these interviews with Musk are unusual and refreshing: he actually has something to say, speaks his mind, and isn't as prone to evade questions.

Re:Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[Anonymous Coward]

Hello :)

I dont really care about Elon Musk Jeff Bezos althoulth!!!

I find AmazonTM the gretest thing since sliced bread and helps taking care of my health at retirement with the Amazon long tail revenue streams!

All you need to do is find a website with a permissive TOS, say, Slashdot, create a Python script to scrape your own comments, sprinkle Amazon affiliate links in various posts, and then re-post past links whenever possible. You can even make video of yourself going to pick up AmazonTM parcel at the convenience store and post it on your youtube channel for more redundant revenue streams.

They also have a wide supply, the best of latte and clif/power bars at the best cost, espicially if you make a friend buy them for you with your own affiliate link!

Also, I still use my iPhone 6s and reduce my monthly bill from $80 to $50. As a phone and a video camera, the iPhone 6s isn't obsolete and I use it to make my videos on youtube. As a Sprint very special customer for 20+ years, Sprint will always give me a new iPhone for free if I decide to stop using the 6s as a phone in the next several years.

Bonus: get some silver coins, view recommendations on my special Youtube channel dedicated to the topic! They constitute a fail-safe insurance strategy for your retirement!

--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re:Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[Anonymous Coward]

Because ummm... Anything Obama errr.... said would be ummmmm..... about five seconds of actual errrrr... audio.

Great orator my ass. We haven't had a great orator since Clinton.

Re: Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[Anonymous Coward]

Bill Clinton, an orator? That was Monica Lewinsky's job.

Re:Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[info6568]

If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...

But it was ... just thinking how few old traditional buildings made with soft materials survived strong central american (where I live) continuous earthquakes. This is why seismic codes are becoming more and more strict, because of the bad experiences and fallen buildings

The real difference is that humans have several thousands of years making buildings and just some decades working with software. And Tesla took a very risky path working many new things that could carry them where they are today. I expect this learning process will help them very much in the future.

Re: Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[reanjr]

To be fair he had to internally translate from black Obama to acceptable-to-whites Obama while he spoke.

Re: Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[Anonymous Coward]

You meant to say reagan. Whatever else he was known for, good or bad, Clinton was not known as a great orator.

The Monica joke was already made so I will just stop now.

Re: Elon Musk is like the facebook generation

[Anonymous Coward]

Fo' shizzle my nigga!

Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Musk replies, "Because we were huge idiots and didn't know what we were doing. That's why."

And how many have been saying this for the last couple of years...

Musk is not a visionary at all. He is a stubborn, narrow-minded, narcisistic man who has one great talent: to get dum-fuck investors to go along with his fairy tails.

Re:Know thyself

[jiriw]

You are mixing up long-term success (visionary) with short-term success (being a huge idiot sometimes). But you probably did that on purpose and are just trolling. Well, I like to feed sometimes ;) I have karma to burn.

If you can't be a huge fucking idiot sometimes you will not accomplish anything in life. It's when we naively make our greatest mistakes, we grow the most as a human being. The point is, learning and not making the same mistake again.

Do you know anyone that can operate an automatic assembly-line from birth, like it's in their DNA, other than its own digestive tract? No? Indeed, didn't think so. Eating and shitting all over the place comes naturally, as we see often enough here in the comments. The rest we have to learn. Sometimes we can learn from others, but if we want to do something innovative, we have to learn the hard way. That means being huge idiots until you know how to do it right.

If you think you can do better than Musk, prove it to the world, or forever hold your peace.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

" He is a stubborn, narrow-minded, narcisistic man who has one great talent:"

Sort of like creimer and being a digital flea.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

ROFL! get some Funko instead. I will never starve because Funko!

Funko has been doubling each year for the last five years. I now own more shares of Funko stock than actual Funkos. I was so impressed with the investor presentation that I adopted it for my own YouTube content strategy.

That's why out of all my dividend-paying stocks that I've own, Funko is one of the riskiest stock that I own. Most anaylsts peg Funko as a speculative buyout target. It's more liklely to be bought out before the Funko bubble bursts.

Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018 has the same number of visitors (~70,000) and the same economic impact as Super Bowl 2018. SVCC is not even one of the larger comic cons in the US.

If you want to attend some tinfoil-hat action, check out AlienCon. The viewers of Ancient Aliens believe in alien abductions, abortions performed by aliens and MAGA when I attended AlienCon 2016 in Silicon Valley. AlienCon 2018 is coming to Baltimore in November. It will be interesting to see how "authoritative" YouTube will be with the UFO nutters.

Three reasons why Stan Lee had to be at Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018: 1) Steve Wozniak was schedueld to be M.I.A. from his own show while traveling back from Russia; 2) Jeff Goldblum cancelled his Sunday-only appearance to spend all three days at the Dallas Fan Expo 2018; and 3) Stan Lee's management team needed him to make them money by signing 400 comic books from comic book dealers for $50K.

I suspect most of my 1K+ followers are bots. Very few are real people. I just use my ten-year-old Twitter account to pimp my YouTube videos to comic con crowds over the weekends. I had 25.3K impressions and an average engagement rate of ~3% (that's great by traditional advertising standards) in the last 28 days.
nobody$ cat creimerfunko creimersig
creimersig creimersigsofatchannel
nobody$ cat creimerfunko creimersigsofatchannel
Funko has been doubling each year for the last five years. I now own more shares of Funko stock than actual Funkos. I was so impressed with the investor presentation that I adopted it for my own YouTube content strategy.

That's why out of all my dividend-paying stocks that I've own, Funko is one of the riskiest stock that I own. Most anaylsts peg Funko as a speculative buyout target. It's more liklely to be bought out before the Funko bubble bursts.

Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018 has the same number of visitors (~70,000) and the same economic impact as Super Bowl 2018. SVCC is not even one of the larger comic cons in the US.

If you want to attend some tinfoil-hat action, check out AlienCon. The viewers of Ancient Aliens believe in alien abductions, abortions performed by aliens and MAGA when I attended AlienCon 2016 in Silicon Valley. AlienCon 2018 is coming to Baltimore in November. It will be interesting to see how "authoritative" YouTube will be with the UFO nutters.

Three reasons why Stan Lee had to be at Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018: 1) Steve Wozniak was schedueld to be M.I.A. from his own show while traveling back from Russia; 2) Jeff Goldblum cancelled his Sunday-only appearance to spend all three days at the Dallas Fan Expo 2018; and 3) Stan Lee's management team needed him to make them money by signing 400 comic books from comic book dealers for $50K.

I suspect most of my 1K+ followers are bots. Very few are real people. I just use my ten-year-old Twitter account to pimp my YouTube videos to comic con crowds over the weekends. I had 25.3K impressions and an average engagement rate of ~3% (that's great by traditional advertising standards) in the last 28 days.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Indeed, I already posted about this here (see below) and Chris is very stubborn!
-Nancy

Information about Christopher Dale Reimer and autistic people:

Autistic people have obsessions about things normal people don't care. For example, one of our autistic patient went haywire when he realized that there was a penny missing in his pocket change.

To calm him down, one of our educator pretended to have found it on the floor and gave a penny to him.

The autistic patient condition went even worse because he realized it wasn't the same penny!

Chris has an obsession with budgeting every penny. He doesn't understand that most people do not budget to the penny and have a flexible amount they allow for miscellaneous items.

I am Nancy Guerrero and I am Director of Special Education for the Santa Clara County Office of Education. We use Chris' (a.k.a. creimer,cdreimer) picture in our document because he is the hardest case we have ever had to handle:
http://www.sccoe.org/depts/stu...

Our artists were inspired by the low carb diet that Christopher follows scrupulously for the small lunch box and by the picture linked below for the rest. I am sure that you will notice the similarities such as the bump on the side of his chest and more:
https://ibb.co/gVad65

Please be easy on Christopher although, I am aware that some of our staff handling Chris post joke comments here and obvoiusly, the Santa Clara County Office of Education disapprove that behavior vehemently:
http://ibb.co/mRVSaG

But it isn't Chris' fault if he is the way he is. We do the best we can do with him and he is partially integrated into society. We try to cure his abnormal need for attention but he is kind of stubborn and won't listen to anybody.

Thank You dear users,
---
Nancy Guerrero
Director
Special Education
Santa Clara County Office of Education

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

... with his fairy tails.

Tesla, Boring, SpaceX. What do you get the man who has everything? Fairy Tails!

I didn't even know that Fairies had tails, but TIL that not only do they have tails, but Musk has some.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Exactly!! long tail revenue streams!!

Hint: buy Funko instead of Tesla,,,

Funko has been doubling each year for the last five years. I now own more shares of Funko stock than actual Funkos. I was so impressed with the investor presentation that I adopted it for my own YouTube content strategy.

That's why out of all my dividend-paying stocks that I've own, Funko is one of the riskiest stock that I own. Most anaylsts peg Funko as a speculative buyout target. It's more liklely to be bought out before the Funko bubble bursts.

Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018 has the same number of visitors (~70,000) and the same economic impact as Super Bowl 2018. SVCC is not even one of the larger comic cons in the US.

If you want to attend some tinfoil-hat action, check out AlienCon. The viewers of Ancient Aliens believe in alien abductions, abortions performed by aliens and MAGA when I attended AlienCon 2016 in Silicon Valley. AlienCon 2018 is coming to Baltimore in November. It will be interesting to see how "authoritative" YouTube will be with the UFO nutters.

Three reasons why Stan Lee had to be at Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018: 1) Steve Wozniak was schedueld to be M.I.A. from his own show while traveling back from Russia; 2) Jeff Goldblum cancelled his Sunday-only appearance to spend all three days at the Dallas Fan Expo 2018; and 3) Stan Lee's management team needed him to make them money by signing 400 comic books from comic book dealers for $50K.

I suspect most of my 1K+ followers are bots. Very few are real people. I just use my ten-year-old Twitter account to pimp my YouTube videos to comic con crowds over the weekends. I had 25.3K impressions and an average engagement rate of ~3% (that's great by traditional advertising standards) in the last 28 days.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re:Know thyself

[MrL0G1C]

Like the fairy-tale where one man runs a company that sends rockets in to space, is racing ahead with a luxury electric car company, produces leading battery storage for vehicles and properties and has some innovative solar products to boot.

Yeah, what an idiot, an intelligent person would have done far better. I'm not a Musk fan boy, but it's pretty obvious the man is no idiot.

It's just a shame he can't keep up with google WRT autonomous driving.

Re: Know thyself

[reanjr]

There are mistakes and then there are mistakes that shouldn't have happened. Tesla's visionary approach does not preclude them from hiring people who know what they are doing. It's not-invented-here syndrome.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Show me on the doll where creimer touched you.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Who hurt you?

Re:Know thyself

[magzteel]

You are mixing up long-term success (visionary) with short-term success (being a huge idiot sometimes). But you probably did that on purpose and are just trolling. Well, I like to feed sometimes ;) I have karma to burn.

If you can't be a huge fucking idiot sometimes you will not accomplish anything in life. It's when we naively make our greatest mistakes, we grow the most as a human being. The point is, learning and not making the same mistake again.

Do you know anyone that can operate an automatic assembly-line from birth, like it's in their DNA, other than its own digestive tract? No? Indeed, didn't think so. Eating and shitting all over the place comes naturally, as we see often enough here in the comments. The rest we have to learn. Sometimes we can learn from others, but if we want to do something innovative, we have to learn the hard way. That means being huge idiots until you know how to do it right.

If you think you can do better than Musk, prove it to the world, or forever hold your peace.

Well said.
It's so easy to never fail. Just never try anything and spend all your time criticizing others who do.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Like the fairy-tale where one man runs a company that sends rockets in to space, is racing ahead with a luxury electric car company, produces leading battery storage for vehicles and properties and has some innovative solar products to boot.

Yeah, what an idiot, an intelligent person would have done far better. I'm not a Musk fan boy, but it's pretty obvious the man is no idiot.

It's just a shame he can't keep up with google WRT autonomous driving.

Posting as Anon because I'm moderating. The main difference between the Tesla vs Waze approach to AV is the hardware. The Waze approach with LADAR and RADAR in addition to vision systems costs about 100K in hardware. The vision only approach costs more like 5-10K or less. This is why they are going with the auto-taxi business model as selling directly to auto makers or consumers is a non-starter at that price. Also, Tesla has much better data for AV due to their large fleet of cars already on the road with AV hardware. It should be interesting, but I'm not sure the Waze approach is really viable in its current form due to cost. I'm also not sure that they can make a cost effective AV given they have far less driving data. We shall see...

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Chill out dude. You don't need to win every paralympic on internet arguing to feel special.

Modern assembly lines are made in a way that any retard can operate them with max 10 min explanation what to do. I'm not a retard, but I've had to operate some of them... I wish I was a doctor, and could have operated on retards, but sadly I operated only on machinery.
Well, I'm actually happy, that assembly lines are getting more and more automated, because it is not a job for humans.

As for Elon Musk... well, if I use Jesus instead, it sounds so familiar:
If you are better than Jesus, save the world or shut your mouth and listen to preaching.

What is this self-deprecating nonsense, where amount of money means so much, that people feel like sh!t, compared to billionaire? FFS, Musk made his children through vitro - clearly most humans can do better than Musk... There are so many more people that do better than Musk, like saving children from caves... if there were no news about Elon Musk, I would not care - life goes on and there are more people I would like to have around, than unrealistic idol with expectations for far (his)future.

Re: Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

The man has billions of dollars, there's numerous people that could have done as much with the money and connections.

Most of what he's started hasn't and likely won't finish.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Just never try anything and spend all your time criticizing others who do./blockquote.
I call it "the 4chan approach."

Re:Know thyself

[delt0r]

I was shocked to hear the other day that 4chan is not what it once was. Apparently they all moved over to reddit.

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

I think almost everybody who told Musk his factory will not work had some assembly line experience to draw on.

It's just you, Musk and the rest of the fanboys who ignored them because they did not also make "rockets" and "boring" flamethrowers and other assorted crap. Also because your relevance criteria for someone who can criticize Musk is that the does better than him in a very narrowly defined field.

And now all of a sudden, Musk is allowed to fail miserably (just like predicted) because he has learned something and fixed mistakes.

Maybe if he would have listened all those non-rich, non-ambitious, non-important-enough engineers he wouldn't be here, but then how could you and the rest of his facebook friends could spin this into a story of moral redemption?

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

Is that where you came from?

Re:Know thyself

[Anonymous Coward]

You don't know the half of it. Reddit is insane. If a post isn't entirely critical of Trump it gets nowhere. If it's not denigrating Musk, it goes nowhere. There are small subreddits that exist where this isn't the case, but the entire rest of reddit ridicules and does their best to harass those subs. There very much is a hivemind in that place. Not everyone should agree on everything like they do there. When no discourse is allowed, that's when a community goes toxic.

Use your time more wisely... apk

[Anonymous Coward]

See subject & create something others LIKE + USE (as they do my work which IS of service & value to others, unlike your trolling). I am constantly bettering myself while JEALOUS JOWIES like you stand still and hide behind FAKE NAMES and miserable fake lives attacking me.

* It's THAT simple...

APK

P.S.=> Funniest part is, everytime I've done a FREEBIE app, it works out well for notoriety BUT SOMETIMES it has worked out to be commercially sold successful software w/ my name in it (helps on job prospects when I was working, long retired now for a decade++) that PAID me for it no less... apk

Calydor = fake name massive human fail

[Anonymous Coward]

See subject: Your MASSIVE FAIL in this life is you're nothing more than a chattering little do-nothing "ne'er-do-well" online & you know it...

* Is that the best your "phantasyland FAKE NAME" (for your fake lie of a so-called 'life') can manage?

When a FAKE NAME do nothing like YOU does better than I have? Then talk (you're all talk & no action)...

You can't help you're an immature little BUTTHURT no-mind, lol! I blew you away in TONS OF PLACES and easily dust your no-mind bullshit blatherings.

APK

P.S.=> The TRUE PRICE of your UNIDENTIFIABLE FAKE NAME do-nothing selves like you that I can ALWAYS CASH IN ON (lol) is that I can use FACT/TRUTH on them to SHATTER their all TOO fragile delusional egos that they actually know A DAMN THING in computing, lol... apk

So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

I think only Musk and his fanboys believed that they were smarter than the countless production engineers in 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Barsteward]

at least he did it quicker than 120 years

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

And sorry for the grammar in this post, 5am liquor talking. :)

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

Hello son!

My name is Christopher Dale Reimer and I am positive that I can help you in your positive and humble mission.

I have a lot of experience working for 3 letter agencies in America and I can help you with your marketing strategies.

I have multiple long tail revenue streams; amazon, youtube, slashdot, etc.

You can reach me here:
https://slashdot.org/~The+Fat+...

Alternatively:
https://www.cdreimer.com/

--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re:So Musk Admits...

[DeBaas]

Well I would choose the 'let's try something ambitious and if it doesn't work just admit and stop doing it' over the trillion dollar corporate method of 'very small, committee stamped and approved, steps towards innovation' any day.
But admittedly, I am a fanboy...

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

Ambitious??

Try some Canadian year of the monkey silver coins! :)

Get some silver coins!!! view recommendations on my special Youtube channel dedicated to the topic! They constitute a fail-safe insurance strategy for your retirement!

Also, I find AmazonTM the gretest thing since sliced bread and helps taking care of my health at retirement with the Amazon long tail revenue streams!

All you need to do is find a website with a permissive TOS, say, Slashdot, create a Python script to scrape your own comments, sprinkle Amazon affiliate links in various posts, and then re-post past links whenever possible. You can even make video of yourself going to pick up AmazonTM parcel at the convenience store and post it on your youtube channel for more redundant revenue streams.

They also have a wide supply, the best of latte and clif/power bars at the best cost, espicially if you make a friend buy them for you with your own affiliate link!

Also, I still use my iPhone 6s and reduce my monthly bill from $80 to $50. As a phone and a video camera, the iPhone 6s isn't obsolete and I use it to make my videos on youtube. As a Sprint very special customer for 20+ years, Sprint will always give me a new iPhone for free if I decide to stop using the 6s as a phone in the next several years.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re: So Musk Admits...

[Qbertino]

They are smarter. Also smart enough to admit when they've gone down a wrong path and need to retract.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

I think only Musk and his fanboys believed that they were smarter than the countless production engineers in 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry.

His willingness to question industry doctrines is the reason why he is rich and successful.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

No, I think Musk SAW the flies iin the ointment, before realizing his filters had been misleading to bullshitting him. As in the James Bond movie, the little people matter, I have also seen smart people say 'We paid XXXXXXX for this system' - it must work, and to hell with fiddling - what we paid should cover everything. Time and motion baby - a stopwatch never lies.

Musk should come clean, and say not possible - but we have a new project - to debug crappy commercial robots, reusing our code and smarts.
Trusting core promises of your outsourcer is putting all your eggs in another persons basket. So he fired up a manual line at great cost. Remains to be seen what abusive calls he placed to the robot providers - or if he did something constructive.

Looks at the Toshiba robots in Japan flaking out to Fukishima radiation. As said, betting your ass with unproven solutions(not just technology) is a road to ruin. BTW Ford, and other had production line issues.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[MrL0G1C]

I'm not a fanboy but I'm still impressed at how well Musk gets this stuff working. They met their target, no-one thought they would, I was pretty sceptical myself.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[bgarcia]

Would that be the same 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry which said it was impossible to design and develop an electric car that people would actually buy?

Re: So Musk Admits...

[reanjr]

Except he hasn't caught up to where every other auto manufacturing is, much less an industry leader like Toyota.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[reanjr]

His focus on chasing government subsidies is why he is rich.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

No one said what you are claiming. They just said you can't do it profitably.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[drinkypoo]

So he fired up a manual line at great cost.

That's not how it works. There is no manual line. There is only less automation on the line. Converting back to manual does not come with a great cost, although there is the problem of the sunk cost of the robots taken off the line.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

Like they say in the art world, you have to know the masters before you can challenge them and create something new.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[jiriw]

Then he still has a 100 years to make up for it, doesn't he?

I jest. No-one will deny Musk isn't stubbornly trying to partly redo what the big car manufacturers already can do while sleeping. It's the other parts those big boys, also stubbornly, refuse to do that he tries to make a viable business from. Most EVs from other manufacturers are either 'show productions' with limited numbers or have known horrible flaws baked in (especially in battery degradation) from the start. I'd thank Musk for his tries to do it right (not saying he does already, but he's damned well trying) and I admire him for doing it in grand style.

If I had a drivers license* and enough money to spare for a car, I'd buy a Tesla. Like I bought a Ryzen the moment they were released. I like to put my money in the camp that tries and manages to make at least a decent product over those that sit on their butts and make money while sleeping.

(*By the way, I don't have a drivers license because I never had the need to - my job is a decent bike ride away - the exercise keeps me healthy, and we have proper public transport where I live.)

Re:So Musk Admits...

[bobby]

Would that be the same 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry which said it was impossible to design and develop an electric car that people would actually buy?

To be fair, please acknowledge the context: mainly battery, motor, and controller technology available at the time. We now have LiON, very efficient power switching transistors to control the motor, neodymium permanent magnets and switched reluctance motors. An electric car of 20 years ago would have far less power and range, still be expensive, and only a few would buy it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1

Re: So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

happening to cash out of the dot-com bubble at the right time is why he is rich

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

Would that be the same 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry which said it was impossible to design and develop an electric car that people would actually buy?

To be fair, please acknowledge the context: mainly battery, motor, and controller technology available at the time. We now have LiON, very efficient power switching transistors to control the motor, neodymium permanent magnets and switched reluctance motors. An electric car of 20 years ago would have far less power and range, still be expensive, and only a few would buy it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1

They had to tear those EV1s out of their owner's hands. GM at no point wanted to make an EV. They still don't. Customers absolutely wanted them and probably would have paid a higher price to get them. GM fights tooth and nail at every point to not do it and they are one of the auto makers that's better with EVs. The Volt was only released as a condition of GM getting a bailout in 2008. The big auto makers don't want to make a real EV. They could, but they won't. And they won't change their minds until after its all over. Such is the nature of old bureaucracies. Seems weird that some on /. want to come done on the side of old bureaucracies in a technology fight.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[quanminoan]

Or making a rocket better than a 60 year old government agency with a budget a not-so-insignificant percentage of GDP? The mode of thinking that another more experienced company or organization would have accomplished something were it feasible is valid until someone else tries. I am however also a fanboy (though as of late he seems to be Hughes-ing himself).

Re:So Musk Admits...

[raftpeople]

He thinks he is going to out-Toyota Toyota. If you think Toyota's approach is 'very small, committee stamped and approved, steps towards innovation' then I would encourage you to read up on the history and workings of Toyota's systems, it's pretty impressive. They were smart, from top down, no Dilbert Pointy Haired Boss stuff but rather thoughtful systems designed and tuned over the years.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Ungrounded Lightning]

They had to tear those EV1s out of their owner's hands. GM at no point wanted to make an EV. They still don't. Customers absolutely wanted them and probably would have paid a higher price to get them. GM fights tooth and nail at every point to not do it and they are one of the auto makers that's better with EVs.

Before the government takeover there was the issue that making such cars was different enough from making gas cars that you had to build some new assembly lines (for components, even if you can manage to hack an existing final line to assemble the new thing), rather than make tweaks to the ones that you already have (and paid for long ago). That makes things much more pricey - especially when the company is already cash-strapped to the point of needing a government bailout.

After the government takeover you're dealing with a C-suite controlled by government bureaucrats, with their eyes on the politics, rather than corporate bureaucrats, with their eyes on the almighty dollar.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[bgarcia]

I agree. But that's implied in my statement. People wouldn't buy the cars either because they would cost too much, or wouldn't be able to go far enough on a charge, or couldn't be recharged quickly enough for long trips. My point is that Tesla is in the process of proving that the rest of the auto industry was wrong. If Elon had listened to them, Tesla wouldn't exist.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[bgarcia]

To be fair, please acknowledge the context: mainly battery, motor, and controller technology available at the time. We now have LiON, very efficient power switching transistors to control the motor, neodymium permanent magnets and switched reluctance motors. An electric car of 20 years ago would have far less power and range, still be expensive, and only a few would buy it

To be fair? If you're trying to be fair, why are you talking about 20 years ago? Tesla Motors was founded 15 years ago. They produced their first car 10 years ago. Yet it's only been within the past 3 years or so that "old auto" is finally starting to talk seriously about electric car development as something more than "compliance cars".

Re:So Musk Admits...

[jimbo]

Not only that but he's brutally honest about mistakes and takes responsibility. How often do we see that in any industry?! He's an engineer and communicates openly and honestly like so many engineers I've worked with, as opposed to the career management people/CEOs that was typically full of hot air.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[DeBaas]

I am actually quite familiar with the Toyota way. It is very impressive and it's impact on quality is one of the reasons I'm happy with my own Toyota. It's got over 200000 Km and I have never spent more than the official planned maintenance costs, no 'surprises'.

I do fail to see however why you think he thought he was going to out-Toyota Toyota? Of the traditional car manufacturers Toyota certainly is an exception in it's management/quality approach as well as innovation (they championed hybrid tech when no-one cared) although not as bold as Tesla.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[bobby]

I wasn't attacking you. You've misunderstood my wording- I'm not a wordsmith. Because of the horrible climate here on /. I rarely contribute. People don't seem too resilient or forgiving here. Misunderstandings are replied to with attacks and defensiveness. It's certainly not you- the whole place stinks, so nobody can tell who farted.

I just meant that things have changed since that statement was made. It seems obvious, to me, that those kinds of statements make the originator look a bit foolish, which is what I think you were trying to say?

Re: So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

Show me someone in the same business who doesnâ(TM)t chase subsidies.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

They met like their seventh target after missing the first six.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[reanjr]

All companies chase subsidies. Elon Musk creates new companies just to take advantage of subsidies.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Hognoxious]

Well I would choose the 'let's try something ambitious and if it doesn't work just admit and stop doing it'

Using somebody else's money? Of course I would - who wouldn't?

Something ambitious might involve cheerleaders, sheep and a jacuzzi full of Theakston's, mind.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

You think NASA is a significant percentage of the US GDP?

You must beat your kids if the lose a penny with that attitude and lack of math skills.

So please go ahead and quote your imagined percentage. I'll start you off...
0.???%

Re:So Musk Admits...

[delt0r]

I think his strength is to pick the right people. He mostly doesn't do it himself. But rinse and repeat, he has pulled things like this off more than a few times now.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[BrianMarshall]

It is pretty weird that Tesla and GM have the same market capitalization - about $55 billion. Tesla has a lot of potential, but it seems most of it is already in the stock price.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

It's not really true, because there has been electric cars around, but they were not that useful, because of range. I've seen them only in factories(but there were also cars for public use out there), because they had to be plugged for overnight. I had a ride on one of them 30 years ago, when I was a kid. The only reason I'm interested in electric cars is because I really could not stand output of combustive cars and I was sick every time I visited city. Not a reason to change whole industry because of that... ;)

The first electric car, that made biggest impression for me was Eliica. After that anything else is just... meh. And it was made just year after Tesla Inc was founded, so you should know better that Tesla is very slow deliverer and when customers will be ready for electric cars, there will be enough options to choose from and Tesla probably won't be best, if they will keep having rapid burning problem and software glitches and production stalling. As a customer, I would prefer safer car. And batteries from Tesla for me is a NO at this point.

PS This year was best about true face of Tesla. 1st, when Elon Musk complained about sabotaging, as the MAIN reason why he could not set up his factory and another when he made failed PR stunt with saving children from flooded cave system. So, that's basically 2 whales, he rides - not taking responsibility for inability to plan timetable(same thing was with Falcon rockets delivery, but at least then he did not blame sabotages, but fixed problems, that were found out and which he/or his engineers/ did not had foreseen) and PR stunts. PR stunts for a company are not bad things, but it really sucks to claim credit for something, where immediate action is needed instead of saying, that he could do best without any knowledge about situation, which really alienates other people, who realize, that in the world out there are real heroes who lose their lives saving other people and Musk is just... getting on nerves because of this, as he doesn't have to face real life challenges. So, if Elon Musk was that good at everything, except giving advices(according to ancient greek saying: giving advices is the EASIEST JOB), he probably could have switched with the diver, and saved his life... and most probably died for no good reason, unless amusement about savants death.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Waccoon]

Outside of the luxury market, that's still largely the case. Even the "mainstream" Model 3 is selling for almost twice its projected price, and Tesla still wants to make more expensive luxury versions so they don't have to sell at a loss.

Middle-class electric cars are still not a profitable market. Tesla can survive on the wow factor among the BMW/Mercedes crowd, but they won't magically overtake a mature, trillion-dollar industry with 120 years of experience.

Re: So Musk Admits...

[dgatwood]

Most of the hardware will probably eventually be used for its original purpose. It's like the self-driving car tech; the hardware works, but the software isn't ready yet.

Now, I'll sit back while everyone argues about whether I'm being serious or sarcastic. :-)

Re:So Musk Admits...

[DerekLyons]

His willingness to question industry doctrines is the reason why he is rich and successful.

No, he's rich because Paypal took off like gangbusters. SpaceX is successful because a series of government contracts kept him afloat long enough to question industry doctrine. (It's not clear that anyone is getting rich off of SpaceX.) Tesla is successful (to an extent) because a set of government loans got him off the ground, and tax credits increased the attractiveness of his products. Nobody is getting rich off of Tesla other than by selling it's stock at highly inflated prices. (Not to mention Tesla is very heavily burdened by debt that it's operating revenue barely covers.) Solar City is also heavily burdened by debt and suffering cash flow issues.

The fanboys will flame me, but them's the facts.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[thegarbz]

I think only Musk and his fanboys believed that they were smarter than the countless production engineers in 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry.

Indeed. I mean they were smarter than the 50 year old space industry. They were smarter than the 200 year old banking industry. They were smarter than the 120 year old auto industry. ... Wait what? Oh yeah that's right they gave the entire industry a kick in the balls regardless of the fact that they had some failures in automation.

I never fail because I never try. Therefore I am the best at absolutely everything I ever do.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[thegarbz]

Ironically 120 years ago their cars were electric. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Re:So Musk Admits...

[SunTzuWarmaster]

Fun fact - Musk was a primary investor in Tesla when no one else would invest - using money he *personally borrowed* (after having already put literally all of his money in the company). When he ran out of investor money, he used his own. When he ran out of money, he borrowed money to invest.

Say what you want about him - he believes in what he is working on. He put his money where his mouth is in a *very* real way.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[Anonymous Coward]

I am not the poster you've responded to, but I did want to point out that even in 1914 there were electric cars with 100 mile range, and charging stations all over NYC. They were considered "women's cars" so they didn't sell well with the biggest market which was mostly men. That isn't an attempt to virtue signal... those cars were legitimately marketed toward women with cabins that looked like comfortable parlors, and they were billed as quiet and clean to operate. I do realize that in 1914 there was less safety gear to haul around, and the average top speed was much lower, but imagine the progress that might have been had. Those were with the old Edison batteries as well, which could be refilled with electrolytes (what your body needs), and you're back to running around.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[drsquare]

No, they said it was impossible to do it profitably. And look at Tesla's losses, they couldn't even make a profit on 100k cars that had the interiors of 10k cars.

Re:So Musk Admits...

[bobby]

I am not the poster you've responded to, but I did want to point out that even in 1914 there were electric cars with 100 mile range, and charging stations all over NYC. They were considered "women's cars" so they didn't sell well with the biggest market which was mostly men. That isn't an attempt to virtue signal... those cars were legitimately marketed toward women with cabins that looked like comfortable parlors, and they were billed as quiet and clean to operate. I do realize that in 1914 there was less safety gear to haul around, and the average top speed was much lower, but imagine the progress that might have been had. Those were with the old Edison batteries as well, which could be refilled with electrolytes (what your body needs), and you're back to running around.

Cool info, thanks AC! Maybe someone will view it since I quoted it. Sigh.

As a kid in the late 70s, for a couple of years I attended a small private school. Being a nerd I knew the science teacher and helped him with stuff. He had several racks of original Edison cells that still worked perfectly. He had them powering the campus telephone system, emergency lighting, and synchronized wall clocks (and who knows what else).

Re:You rotten bastards like & use my work... a

[Anonymous Coward]

At this point it does not even matter anymore whether you are right or not. Your behavior is a huge red flag. Nothing you produce will ever touch my systems for that reason alone.
I guess I am hardly alone in this.

Re: You rotten bastards like & use my work...

[Anonymous Coward]

I have a strangely warm feeling every time I see his spam....

I don't know why. Maybe it's the same reason millions of people watch a lemon roll down the hill on YouTube....

If Musk Can't Make An AutoLine Robot Work Reliably

[Anonymous Coward]

What chance in Trumpville does he think he can make a car drive itself?

think, pigman, think! haha! charade you are!

INDICT THE WHITE HOUSE!
INDICT RYAN'S AND MCCONNELL'S CONGRESS!
INDICT FOX NEWS!

Treason has a price.

5k a week seems like hyperoptimistic overkill

[Anonymous Coward]

The most popular EVs sell around 20k units *per year*. Once they've worked through all the hype-driven backorders I see no reason to think Teslas will sell an order of magnitude more, especially if they never manage to get the price down to """only""" $35k.

Re:5k a week seems like hyperoptimistic overkill

[Anonymous Coward]

LOL! get some Funko instead!!!

Funko has been doubling each year for the last five years. I now own more shares of Funko stock than actual Funkos. I was so impressed with the investor presentation that I adopted it for my own YouTube content strategy.

That's why out of all my dividend-paying stocks that I've own, Funko is one of the riskiest stock that I own. Most anaylsts peg Funko as a speculative buyout target. It's more liklely to be bought out before the Funko bubble bursts.

Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018 has the same number of visitors (~70,000) and the same economic impact as Super Bowl 2018. SVCC is not even one of the larger comic cons in the US.

If you want to attend some tinfoil-hat action, check out AlienCon. The viewers of Ancient Aliens believe in alien abductions, abortions performed by aliens and MAGA when I attended AlienCon 2016 in Silicon Valley. AlienCon 2018 is coming to Baltimore in November. It will be interesting to see how "authoritative" YouTube will be with the UFO nutters.

Three reasons why Stan Lee had to be at Silicon Valley Comic Con 2018: 1) Steve Wozniak was schedueld to be M.I.A. from his own show while traveling back from Russia; 2) Jeff Goldblum cancelled his Sunday-only appearance to spend all three days at the Dallas Fan Expo 2018; and 3) Stan Lee's management team needed him to make them money by signing 400 comic books from comic book dealers for $50K.

I suspect most of my 1K+ followers are bots. Very few are real people. I just use my ten-year-old Twitter account to pimp my YouTube videos to comic con crowds over the weekends. I had 25.3K impressions and an average engagement rate of ~3% (that's great by traditional advertising standards) in the last 28 days.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re: 5k a week seems like hyperoptimistic overkill

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm not so sure re demand. I could easily be wrong, but they've got a huge backlog, on zero advertising, and no eta when you sign up. If you look at crossing the chasm model, they've yet to, actually cross. They're still skimming the cream of the market, showrooms are in upscale malls, etc.

What I found interesting about how he's going about it, is the same way they did space x. A bunch of blown up rockets, then you end up with the dual, simultaneous landings of the boosters. It sniffs like they'll get it right, eventually , and on the way, make a step level change in AI ish stuff. After all, we're not talking about real self driving car problems, with infinite variations. An assembly line should be able to control variables a LOT more than actual AI real world scenarios.

Re: 5k a week seems like hyperoptimistic overkill

[Ungrounded Lightning]

If you look at crossing the chasm model, they've yet to, actually cross.

Which is good for the company, because if you look at companies where someone in the C-suite starts enthusing about "Crossing the Chasm" the book, you see a consistent pattern:
  1. They fire the early-hires and screw them out of the bulk of their stock option gains (as recommended near the end of one of the later chapters).
  2. But they do it too soon - when they are still what's making the company run and innovate, when the key "invisible IP" is still in their heads and skills, rather than institutionalized, documented, and trained into a redundant collection of other skilled people.
  3. So then the company keeps running for a while. But it doesn't keep innovating (or goes on a wild chasing-the-vexing-opportunities spree), the core proceses start to randomly flake out when something breaks and has to be redesigned from the ground up rather than just tweaked, the company stops growing (and/or flakes out visibly on customers). Shortly it falls into, rather than crossing, the chasm.
  4. No profit.

Re:5k a week seems like hyperoptimistic overkill

[Anonymous Coward]

They produced 7k that week including Model S and X, that means they are producing 100k Model S and X combined a year. What the fuck do you think they are doing with them if not selling them?

And even at 5k a week it is going to take years to get through their back orders. Maybe they'll have to slow down once they are all fulfilled, but if they do get the price down to 35k, there may well be sufficient demand to keep the lines producing at or near full capacity.

I'm amused by past tense, "we were huge idiots" :p

[Anonymous Coward]

with his comments about AI out to kill us, with thinking we live in a simulation and trying to break us free, with the douche attitude he displays by for example not allowing people who criticize buy his car, by his attitude towards criticism in general like for example criticism from the safety board are arguably better examples of him actlng like one

Automation does not start in production phase.

[burni2]

It starts in the design phase. When you design your "Object"(automobile for example) without certain constraints an automation unit can easily work within - then it needs manual labour because "HI" can adapt easily - or try your luck with CV Systems. However computer 3D-Vision is much more complex and error prone in contrast to for example state of the art 2D-Vision systems where you can really high speed place & sort and do things.

I think it's good that Elon Musk is true about that fact - we didnt know what we did - however I would guess he was told that the design wasn't ready for automation, and most likely that person got demoted to janitor or was fired.

From all information I have on Elon Musk, my picture of him tells me that has the same problem as Trump. He is impervious to counciling from people that actually know better and are more "earthbound".

This character flaw is actually very dangerous for Tesla, because we actually had a near miss of a collapsing Tesla company. I personally would not like to see that because Tesla is a strong driver that has shaken up the automobile combustion gallore.

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Exactly and I am the greatest designer around!!!

I have a hearing loss in one ear, so my audio will always be suspect. I use a Zoom H2 audio recorder with a pop filter 12" away from my mouth, Audacity to clean up and normalize the audio, and sync the audio to the video and apply a "voice enhancement" eq to the audio in the video editor.

My PC has an eight-core processor and a Nvidia 1050 Ti 4GB video card. A minute of 1080p video renedered on the processor takes a minute. A minute of 1080p video rendered on the Nvidia card takes 10 seconds. I don't think an iPad has the same performance of my PC for rendering videos longer than a short clip.

I can't imagine using Photoshop without a keyboard and mouse, or not being able to access my files from my file server. Video rendering on the iPad will probably suck donkey balls.

Blackmagic also charges high prices for their gear as Apple does. Need an HDMI to USB3 capture device? Blackmagic is $300. Any generic company is $50.

I take public transit. A local bus take me down the street to pick up the express bus, the express bus drops me off in Palo Alto, and a local bus take me down the street to my job. An hour each way. Driving through Palo Alto during rush hour is insane. Since I work in government I.T., I start work at 7:00AM.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Corbets]

Ironically, that character flaw is also what has allowed him to succeed in breaking into markets the world thought he could never enter (upsetting established auto manufacturers with a tech electric startup, reusable rockets stealing market share from the Lockheeds of the world).

So maybe we ought to write it as “flaw” with the quotes instead.

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Ironically, that character flaw is also what has allowed him to "succeed" in breaking into markets the world thought he could never enter (upsetting established auto manufacturers with a tech electric startup, reusable rockets stealing market share from the Lockheeds of the world).

Fixed that for you. Space ex prices are only where they are because they cut corners and are losing a massive amount of money per flight to drive out competition. But their rockets have the worst reliability of in the history of rocketry.

And Tesla has utterly failed. They will be bankrupt by the end of this year. Through a combination of their CEOs over inflated ego and the incompetence of their engineering staff, they were forced to cancel the $35000 model 3 in a futile attempt to stave off their inevitable collapse.

Re: Automation does not start in production phase.

[reanjr]

It just means we have to wait for Musk to learn the lessons on his own.

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Type44Q]

From all information I have on Elon Musk, my picture of him tells me that has the same problem as Trump. He is impervious to counciling from people that actually know better and are more "earthbound".

I highly suggest dispensing with the notion that you're at all good at analysing people: it's very clear from Musk's [success in a wide variety of endeavours] that we're looking at someone more than capable of delegating... and that runs entirely contrary to your above theory.

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Space ex prices are only where they are because they cut corners and are losing a massive amount of money per flight to drive out competition. But their rockets have the worst reliability of in the history of rocketry.

Do you have any sources for this bullshit?

Because the Falcon 9 is more reliable than the Airane 5, Pegasus, Long March, Proton and other rockets still in use on this list:

https://blogs.scientificameric...

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[theskipper]

Re: character flaw, calling the diver in the Thailand rescue a pedophile this morning lends credence to the fact that he doesn't listen to his large investors, let alone those related to development of the company's product.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHed...
https://twitter.com/TeslaChart...

A while back Baillie clearly told him to shut up with the unprofessional tweeting and focus on the work. And it seems they're not alone. The other large funds are clearly spooked by the balance sheet, product defects and CEO behavior and have been dumping their common positions (i.e. the least-senior in bankruptcy). Fidelity primarily but even TRowe, the most steadfast, is showing signs they fear the worst: https://twitter.com/WintonCapP...).

Of course if we have truly have entered an era where you can say anything without repercussion from other stakeholders, and can make your own reality, then none of this matters and the cult mentality will continue. What that says about the future of corporate governance and execution in this country is left as an exercise to the reader.

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

What I'm seeing at that link is for the top 6 by total numbers:

Falcon 9: 2 of 13 failed = 15.4% failure
Proton: 2 of 16 failed = 12.5% failure
R-7: 2 of 28 failed = 7.1% failure
Atlas 5: 0 of 18 failed = 0% failure
CZ (DF-5): 0 of 15 failed = 0% failure
Ariane 5: 0 of 12 failed = 0% failure

Re: Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Musk is a delusional piece off shit

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Let me get your email so I can email this post back to you the day Musk City is founded on Mars.

Then I can ask you what have you done with your life other than bitch and complain on the internet about a man who cured his own baldness.

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Don't feed the trolls...

He's just a Tesla short, who's disappointed he's losing money.

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[sierra077]

From all information I have on Elon Musk, my picture of him tells me that has the same problem as Trump. He is impervious to counciling from people that actually know better and are more "earthbound".

From everything I've read, Musk readily acknowledges his own limitations (see summary) and readily seeks and hires outside expertise. Do you think SpaceX themselves manufacture the turbines for their rocket engines? No, his company's efforts focus on the larger picture: reusable rocket, electric vehicle. If a part or process is not satisfactory, then they bring it in house and invest in it. Don't confuse his efforts to push the boundaries with ignoring advice. When all is said in done, if there were no failures or hardships, it means you were never that innovative to begin with. You may contrast this with Trump who, by many accounts, simply dismisses his fearful advisers on a whim; sometimes they flip back and forth in the span of hours in an effort to satisfy and attempt consistency with their king.

I don't see Tesla as any more precarious than any other fledgling company. I bought a Tesla (I am not rich but above average in wealth and it is within my means using a loan) and am so happy to finally be able to support an innovative American company. Plus, in return, I get an awesome car. I pity the folks who shorted stock and therefore preclude themselves, probably for life, from the joy of ever owning a Tesla. Someone will no doubt attempt to justify the market necessity of shorts, but let me change "pity" to "fuck them". Anyone who bets money on someone else's failure is rotten at the core. Very similar to those who disparage others in an attempt to make themselves look better (Trump comes to mind again).

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

I haven’t lost a penny. But I’ll be laughing my ass off at all the retards they lose everything the Tesla goes belly up. I’ll especially laugh at all the retards they will have a very expensive paper weight when they can no longer service their over priced golf cart they blew their life saving to buy.

Re: Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Get your organic salt here!

Fresh dried, TESLA stock shorting tears here! Perfect for that bitter, burning ðY"¥ humble pie ðY¥!

Re:Automation does not start in production phase.

[Anonymous Coward]

Sorry. wrong link, that was a single year list of launches in 2015, I intended to post this link which is current to date:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_orbital_launchers_families

The failure rate for Falcon 9 is 2/48 = 4.17%
Ariane 5: 4 of 69 failed = 5.8% failure
Pegasus: 5 of 43 failed = 11.6% failure
Long March (2-7, all current): 10 of 171 failed = 5.8% failure
Long March (5,6,7):1 of 4 failed = 25% failure
Proton: 46 of 399 failed = 12.5% failure

Re:If Musk Can't Make An AutoLine Robot Work Relia

[Anonymous Coward]

I dont like trump because he doesnt let long enough government shutdows to let me fix 3 letter agency systems in Palto Alto...
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

Re:I'm amused by past tense, "we were huge idiots"

[Anonymous Coward]

You aint seen nothing!!!

If you want to attend some tinfoil-hat action, check out AlienCon. The viewers of Ancient Aliens believe in alien abductions, abortions performed by aliens and MAGA when I attended AlienCon 2016 in Silicon Valley. AlienCon 2018 is coming to Baltimore in November. It will be interesting to see how "authoritative" YouTube will be with the UFO nutters.
--
Going to a comic con this weekend? Check out my vi

SHUT THE FUCK UP!

[Anonymous Coward]

SHUT THE FUCK UP!

Re: SHUT THE FUCK UP!

[Anonymous Coward]

No.

Good point!

[Anonymous Coward]

Good point! Even cancer might have some redeeming value if it removed the fake creimer troll from the human population. Holy fuck that spam is annoying. Whoever is posting it has absolutely no value whatsoever to humanity. What kind of scumbucket posts that bullshit for hours, impersonating someone who left this site months ago? There really are some total losers within humanity.

Re:Good point!

[Anonymous Coward]

Christopher, my love,

Never mind those "hump leg" trolls.

I am deeply sorry. I didn't feel well lately but I am better now since I had my meds adjusted. I am sorry that I called you all sorts of names on Slashdot and I feel truly ashamed of myself but somebody keeps re-posting my nasty post.

The python click script you wrote for me my sweet love for my pheromone revenue stream web site suddenly stopped to work.

Could you come visit me in my studio so we could look at it?

Signed:
Ethell, Your sweetee who will love you for ever.

P.S. when I posted there was a funny form that asked me to retype the word "shoulders" in a text field. That's funny, I did a double-take and I went to look at your new picture again and got turned on. Please contact me ASAP.

Stick with proven human assembly workforce

[Anonymous Coward]

Tesla will probably collapse eventually because of Musk who ignored automotive assembly technics that were proven to be efficient and required good people who could recognize issues and help make changes. Instead Musk relied too heavily on automation and it was a complete failure in proving it was better then using human's to do the job. Musk swollen egotistical head is to blame for every failure at Tesla. He needs to go for Tesla to survive.

No Need For The Song, Then?

[Greyfox]

Well shit. Guess we can stop working on the song about how great it was going to all be. Just as well, we only had the first bit...

Come with me, and you'll be... in a world of Tesla Automation!

Re:No Need For The Song, Then?

[SunTzuWarmaster]

Come with me
And you'll be
In a world of Tesla Automation

Take a look
And you'll see
Tesla Automation

We'll begin
With a spin
Traveling in
The world of Musks' creation

What we'll see
Will defy
Explanation

If you want to view paradise
Simply look around and view it
Anything you want to, do it
Want to change the world?
There's nothing to it

There is no
Life I know
To compare with pure automation

Living there
You'll be free
If you truly wish to be
If you want to see Martian lands

Close your eyes and you will see one
Want to be a dreamer, be one
Anytime you please and please save me one

Ha ha! Musk gives to Republicans

[Anonymous Coward]

Musk donates to Republican PAC named Protect the House aimed at keeping control of Congress.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-14/liberal-meltdown-furious-libs-outraged-after-elon-musk-revealed-one-top-republican

Other manufacturers

[VikingNation]

How many vehicles can other auto manufacturers produce in one week? I would have through their volume is more than 13,009 (7,000 + 5,000)

Re:Other manufacturers

[AHuxley]

That would depend on the price range and brand of vehicle? What other brands are making a product range at that quality and price?

Re:Other manufacturers

[Anonymous Coward]

Just looking at the "high end" manufacturers.

Audi delivered 1.878 million cars in 2017 ( https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2018/01/Audi_sales_17.html ), which equates to around 36000/week.
2million BMWs in 2016 https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwgroup_com/ir/downloads/en/2016/BMW_GB16_en_Finanzbericht.pdf
Even porsche was delivering 4500/week in 2016 https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/company/porsche-deliveries-2016-sales-record-13310.html Not 13K, but from what I believe (and I could well be wrong) at lot more manual work involved.

Re:Other manufacturers

[Anonymous Coward]

Volkswagen and Toyota each produce around 10-11 million cars a year, or roughly 200 000 a week.

Re:Other manufacturers

[Big Nemo '60]

Many years ago (keep this in mind - things may have changed) I worked at an European company, designing and building production plants for the automotive industry, especially for the body shops.

A typical production line for European mid-sized cars had a theoretical capacity of fifty (50) car bodies per hour - that would be at 100% efficiency, actual yeld was lower but not much. A typical production facility for non-premium class cars had two production lines running in parallel on two eight-hour shifts per day (third shift for clean-up and maintenance), five days a week. 50*2*8*2*5=8000 car bodies per week at 100% efficiency (as I said, actual yeld was something less than that). Of course, most manufacturers had (still have) more than one facility running.

Premium / luxury production lines are usually smaller than that, of course. Think Ferrari.

I hope this is of interest.

Re:Other manufacturers

[Anonymous Coward]

What other brands are making a product range at that quality and price?

That's really rare in the automotive industry. Prices like buying a Porsche combined with a quality of Kia in the 80s...

Re:Other manufacturers

[Ungrounded Lightning]

How many vehicles can other auto manufacturers produce in one week?

How many production lines do they have?

How many years of investment and plowing-revenue-into-building-or-buying-production-capaity did they spend to get to that point?

5000 cars/month is about 8 2/3 minutes per car. That's if you run your lines three shifts, 7 days a week, and they NEVER STOP. With 5-day weeks it's about 6 minutes between cars (and thus per-station on a line), with two shifts it's 4, with one shift it's 2, with coffee breaks, lunch, etc. it's less.

And that's not even TOUCHING the big killer - adding slop time at each station for fixing any oopsie within the time slot, and stopping the WHOLE LINE when the step doesn't get done right and isn't something you can mark the tag after the car's off the line.

A production line is a giant AND gate, with a forest of inputs, that has to output 1 to make cars.

A target of 5,000 cars a month this early in the company's history? And they HIT it? Amazing!

Re: Other manufacturers

[Anonymous Coward]

So you are saying Tesla, just with the Model 3 production, is already 50% bigger than Porsche at this point? Sounds great!

From the beginning of your post I thought you were a terrified Tesla hurt seller trying to dump on the stick to avoid the horror of another margin call.

The Model 3 is what, a year old? And they are already bigger than all of Porsche. That is some amazing production growth. They could easily scale that up now, but are apparently choosing to increase efficiency further to avoid a rework in a couple years. And why not, when they can upsell thirty grand of high margin options on a car while base price will be $35k when in mega mass production.

Thanks for the tip, I'll go pick up some Tesla stock before it surges again.

Dumbass Musk.

[Khyber]

"Because we were huge idiots and didn't know what we were doing. That's why."

Just like with Boring Co, Solar City, etc? Nothing but distributing tax money to your family members, eh, Musk?

Re:Dumbass Musk.

[Gojira Shipi-Taro]

What have you achieved, exactly?

You know, other than trolling on slashdot.

Re:Dumbass Musk.

[Khyber]

Designed a system that can grow plants without light?

Designed a nearly-universal LED blend that works on over 95% of plants through all stages of life (the purple glow of which you can see in the video mentioned above?)

Developed Aquarium lighting units which can light an entire 55 gallon saltwater reef tank with less than 50 watts of power consumed hourly, and produce consistent growth?

Created prototype lighting systems for Scripps Institute of Oceanography for figuring out *THE* limits of photosynthesis?

What have *YOU* achieved, sonny-boy, besides bloated code that doesn't help humanity in most any way?

*yawn*

Re: Dumbass Musk.

[Anonymous Coward]

Wow, you invented the light bulb?

But wait that's over a hundred years old...

Oh, so you invented the LED?

No, that was someone else too.

So you made a relatively modest, purely incremental improvement, advancing science by formulating a new chemical composition for LED production?

No, that isn't true either...

Oh, so you took a few COTS LEDs in different hues and glued them together so people can grow marijuana indoors? But with ten year expensive LEDs instead of three year lifetime fluorescents.

No, that's been around a long time too. Mostly pointless since grow houses don't need ten year lifetimes on bulbs.

Surely you are not a loser feigning such a wan shade of "greatness" So what exactly is your discovery/invention? Got a link to a patent?

Or do you think pointing someone else's light at something that someone else invented (aquariums) is somehow praise worthy and will earn you the respect you seek from Slashdot but clearly don't get in life? Maybe claim to have invented the Post It next time.

Have a nice day!

Re: Dumbass Musk.

[Khyber]

"Oh, so you took a few COTS LEDs in different hues and glued them together so people can grow marijuana indoors?"

Guessing you ignore the Scripps Institute part. Okay, you have fun over there in the ball pit since you've shown you're not even up to the reading and thinking level of a 10 year old.

Re:Dumbass Musk.

[Anonymous Coward]

Wow, really pushed the envelope there. Put your life's savings on line and staked your reputation fighting against the fish tank lighting cartel. Impressive.

Lessons GM learned in the 80s

[sphealey]

= = = A lot of the hoped-for automation was counterproductive. It's not like we knew it would be bad, because why would we buy a ticket to hell...? A whole bunch of the robots are turned off, and it was reverted to a manual station because the robots kept faulting out = = =

How could Musk have possibly known that would happen? Just because he was operating in a factory he bought from GM, which went through the exact same process in the 1980s and the failures of excess automation in the assembly process were well documented in both the trade press and business press? No One Could Have Anticipated(tm).

Sometimes the people who have been doing something for 120 years are hidebound. And sometimes they really do know what they are doing.

[IMHO the stock market has done Telsa a real disservice by bidding up the stock price beyond reasonable levels. At the time Ford needed the cash it received from selling Land Rover and Jaguar, but now it really needs a new luxury division. Tesla would make an excellent division of Ford - but at the stock price that can't happen]

Re:Lessons GM learned in the 80s

[Anonymous Coward]

There would be no progress if you just replicated what other companies had done in the past.

New products made with new processes require you to not listen to the experienced people at some point. It's extremely difficult to tell when you need to listen and when you need to ignore. Tesla made a mistake here, but the mistake was definitely not that they were ignoring some of what GM had done previously, it's that they made a bad choice on which things to ignore and which not to ignore. They had to ignore some of it. GM produced and tanked the EV1. If Musk listened to all of GM's experience, there would be no Tesla at all.

Also GM's problems with automation 30 years ago might be a good thing to revisit, as technology has changed massively since then. A $5 Raspberry Pi is far more powerful than any computer they had back then. Robotics and automation has massively changed. Thinking it can be done better now is not radical.

I think it's a good sign here is that the mistake has been recognized and they owned it. It's the companies who think they can't make mistakes and shift the blame externally that cause massive problems in a vain attempt to be right.

Re:Lessons GM learned in the 80s

[Anonymous Coward]

So if you were running Tesla, you would... what? Do whatever GM did? The company that went bankrupt and had to get bailed out with US government money? It's a good thing you don't run Tesla.

Re:Lessons GM learned in the 80s

[Anonymous Coward]

Let's be real: There may still be no Tesla.

It still isn't a profitable company...

We were huge idiots

[Anonymous Coward]

You don't say? Maybe that's why so many people that might have actually known what they were talking about, and that Musk in his self-congratulating bubble refused to acknowledge were saying, 'You are being huge idiots.'? We have an entire generation of these 'huge idiots' dragging us backward and impeding forward movement in similar self-congratulating bubbles. It will continue to bear itself out.

And you think he can make autopilot work?

[Anonymous Coward]

In a completely controlled environment he can not figure out how to get robots to build the same car over n over yet in an uncontrollable environment like driving in the dynamic real world we are supposed to believe his cars will not kill people.

Riiiiiight!

Where are all the people saying gun manufacturers should be held criminally liable for gun deaths? How come they have nothing to say about Musk going to jail for murder or at least vehicular manslaughter?

No People on Mars

[Anonymous Coward]

While you are all debating how bad a car company an all robotic production line makes, what everyone is missing are the reasons behind trying to automate everything in the first place. Which is something you might need to do remotely outside our gravity well. The only real mistake Musk made here is trying to pay for the testing of automation process by making cars along the way. My observation is that they were at least moderately successful in automating the entire line, time pressures aside its likely those issues will be resolved. Whatever the (short term) cost was in the context of Tesla, the obvious payoff for a fully automated manufacturing system is very significant achievement.

People remember quality not quantity.

[JustNiz]

>> I think we had to prove that we could make 5,000 cars in one week....

This type of thinking is exactly why Tesla's cars have shit quality.

think

[leesubham]

Take a look at reality

How well does this describe programming

[SuperKendall]

A lot of the hoped-for automation was counterproductive. It's not like we knew it would be bad, because why would we buy a ticket to hell? We don't actually want to go for hell. We just didn't realize it was a ticket to hell. We thought it would be good, but it was not good.

I read that I could think of countless situations on company projects where you could replace "automation" in the above sentence with a third party library, or some super complex internally developed framework that was supposed to cure all ills.

I've read through some of the other comments here about production systems and various backseat driving as to what he should have done. So I'll offer my own - they tried to automate everything all at once on paper before trying anything. They should have probably tried to automate much smaller sections of the process with something they could check out in reality then add that to an assembly line.. like for software, how it really is production to do test fragments of something you are trying to build and run a lot of things through them to see if everything works as you predicted.

No matter how you slice it though enormous systems are just always going to be complex beasts with lots of failure along the way. I''m not really a Musk fan to the depth some are, but one thing I do admire about Musk is that he actually can deliver because he doesn't give up, and puts in the tremendous personal effort it takes to resolve issues. The unlikely successes of SPaceX made me pretty sure he could fix Tesla too, and after reading this I feel pretty sure he has.

You have to debug

[Anonymous Coward]

the assembly line just like any other large computer project. Humans are great because they are flexible and easy to program. What Tesla needs to do is start from what is working and see if more automation can help at certain areas. Spend time debugging the automation. And only introduce it when fully reliable.

Credit where credit is due

[Rick Schumann]

It may seem ironic but I'll give credit to Elon Musk for saying "We were huge idiots" (emphasis mine) where he could have said 'THEY (my employees) were huge idiots'. He's part of the team, he's taking responsibility for failures as quickly as he takes responsibility for successes; this is a trait that in my perception is all to uncommon these last few decades.

Re:Credit where credit is due

[gweihir]

Very much so. Only those that can admit personal failures can improve. The more accurately, the better. In this egocentric age in the west, this quality has indeed become rare, and even much more so in the "leaders". This is probably the single key factor for his success.

Self-driving promise vs robotic automation...

[sweet 'n sour]

As a future M3 owner, it concerns me that Elon would admit that he was a "huge idiot" to rely on automation at a time when his company is selling a product that promises to use similar tech for self-driving, If Tesla can't even get their robot's vision system to recognize parts and where to put them in a controlled environment, what are their chances of getting their cars to recognize objects out on on the road and act accordingly?

ARGH! Week, not month!

[Ungrounded Lightning]

5,000 a WEEK, not a MONTH. Let's try that again:

2 min and a shaved second between cars. That's running flat out 24/7. No coffee breaks, no shift change, no stop-the-line-for-an-oopsie. (Easy to see why he needed more than one line.)

A target of 5,000 cars a WEEK this early in the company's history? And they HIT it? I'm FLOORED!

Normal Development process

[cwsumner]

This is what happens when people try to do something new. It is called Research and Development, and it happens on -every- project to some extent. Whether it is planned that way or not...

What is different is telling the truth, which has become quite rare in recent decades. Partly because the "Internet" seems to require lies.

If you punish those who say "I was wrong" ot "I don't know", then you will end up buying from the liars. Good luck with that. 8-}

"Because we were huge idiots..."

[gweihir]

And that is why Musk is successful. He may only be a mediocre engineer, but he is not only able to learn, he is able to be brutally honest with himself and that puts him far ahead of the crowd.

"Everything sounds good on PowerPoint."

[Anonymous Coward]

IMO, best quote: "Everything sounds good on PowerPoint."

Q: What's the long-term plan for that new assembly line inside the tent? I think the confusing thing for most people is that you now have two apparently different processes producing the same car, one with more humans and one with more automation.

A lot of the hoped-for automation was counterproductive. It's not like we knew it would be bad, because why would we buy a ticket to hell? We don't actually want to go for hell. We just didn't realize it was a ticket to hell. We thought it would be good, but it was not good. That applies to a great deal of the automation. A whole bunch of the robots are turned off, and it was reverted to a manual station because the robots kept faulting out. When the robot faults out—like the vision system can't figure out how to put the object in—then you've got to reset the system. You've got to manually seat the components. It stops the whole production line while you sort out why the robot faults out.

It was like rush hour traffic at a bunch of stop streets and like no highways or anything. It's like you just took all the highways away from L.A. or something. It sounds good on PowerPoint and it was terrible in reality. Everything sounds good on PowerPoint. You could have a great PowerPoint presentation about a teleportation system to the Andromeda galaxy. But guess what? You cannot teleport to the Andromeda galaxy. That is nonsense.

Q: How does that happen?

Because we were huge idiots and didn't know what we were doing. That's why.

--

LOL

[Anonymous Coward]

Would that be the same 120 year old trillion dollar auto industry which said it was impossible to design and develop an electric car that people would actually buy?

They NEVER said that - EVER.

As a matter fact, if you actually knew the history of the auto industry you would know that some of the very first autos WERE electric because the ICE wasn't viable at the time.

And you would also know that EVs just didn't sell well because of all the problems like range, charging times, batteries, etc.. were an issue. GM has a nice EV in the 1990s but battery tech wasn't good enough back then.

And thanks to Panasonic, Tesla has some decent tech. (They do need to decrease charging times though to be really competitive with ICE vehicles.)

And as we see NOW, EVs are a money losing business.

Tesla has control of the EV market during the peak of an economic cycle and they still cannot make money.

Guess what's gonna happen when the economy slows AND other auto makers seriously enter the EV market.

There are ONLY 373,000 reservations for the Model 3 right now. If it is soooo popular, why isn't it more like 3,373,000 reservations? Because THAT number is about what it's going to take for Tesla to be a viable company.

GOD! You fanboys are soooo annoying! On investment sites, we try to have a rational conversation about Tesla and you people just Troll with your Musk originated bullshit.

Re: You rotten bastards like & use my work...

[Anonymous Coward]

Link?

Survivor Bias. That is really all.

[Anonymous Coward]

Survivor Bias. That is really all.

Thousands, perhaps millions of people every year try to do something like Musk and never get past 1% of where he did.

Not because he is smart and agile, but because in addition to those, he is lucky. Also probably dishonest or amoral, but that is not strictly necessary.

So no, telling someone - "you do what Musk did" - is not a refutation of the argument that he should have known better and that in fact much if not all of his current position (too early to call it success) is due to luck and probably hucksterism.

Using Musk as an example of how to succeed is simply fallacious reasoning.

Re:Survivor Bias. That is really all.

[delt0r]

...Also probably dishonest or amoral, but that is not strictly necessary.

Musk seems to be a bit better than the average, hell these days the gates foundation is actually pretty good. He, like a few others are not the typical fortune 500 CEO. They made their wealth on that new fangled internet thing long before the typical wall street troll got their teeth stuck in.

I for one welcome our new billionaire overlords. They seem a lot better than the last lot.

That's not what he said

[SuperKendall]

As a future M3 owner, it concerns me that Elon would admit that he was a "huge idiot" to rely on automation

He didn't say they were huge idiots in relying on automation. They still use automation in a number of places in production.

He was saying they were "huge idiots" generally in designing the whole manufacturing process, which they obviously had to re-work quite a bit. Automation is only one small part of that, simple logistics in moving things around another... all had to be re-jiggered it turns out.

Remember it's not like Tesla built the automation systems they scrapped, he was talking about robots going into failure modes they had to have a slow reset from, Tesla's own automation and software in cars seems to be lots more stable.

Musk replies, "Because we were....

[Anonymous Coward]

Musk replies, "Because we were huge idiots and didn't know what we were doing. That's why."

Musk is a risk taker, he knew there were risks with automation. They are under pressure to deliver to corners were cut. Automation systems takes time to design and implement.
Musk is also wise and is learning from experience, as one would expect.
I hope he kills that Hyperloop bullshit. Transport in vacuum on earth, yeah right, what could go wrong.

Re:Musk replies, "Because we were....

[Anonymous Coward]

Hey, don't act like they made a bet on automation and lost. Tesla still has more assembly automation (per unit of production) than any car company on Earth. Some of it wasn't working out, so they quickly ditched it, but lots of it did work out. I'm sure the learning experience will produce debugging data, the machines will get firmware updates, and even they will be back. But many - probably most - did work out as planned. Without them Tesla wouldn't be turning out one rather expensive car every 90 seconds.

Conservative figures out common knowledge

[Anonymous Coward]

The industry knew this already. At least, unlike hard core conservatives, he was able to learn from the lesson once it happened to him and wasn't destroyed in the process.

Non trivial

[Elfich47]

What you have just described is non-trivial and would involve designing each assembly station twice: Once for automation and once for manual. And then you have to be able to have both of those stations fit in the same space. And then you have to decide how much extra man power you need on standby in case an automated station breaks and you want to get the manual station running. And then you have to figure when to repair the automated section of the line without endangering someone.

Re:Non trivial

[Mr D from 63]

What you have just described is non-trivial and would involve designing each assembly station twice: Once for automation and once for manual. And then you have to be able to have both of those stations fit in the same space. And then you have to decide how much extra man power you need on standby in case an automated station breaks and you want to get the manual station running. And then you have to figure when to repair the automated section of the line without endangering someone.

Wow , sounds complicated. I wonder how other manufacturers keep their lines running. They must have geniuses.

Re:Non trivial

[Anonymous Coward]

>designing each assembly station twice: Once for automation and once for manual. And then you have to be able to have both of those stations fit in the same space.

That is in fact how it usually works. Last time I built something like that was a year ago. It's standard. Also, automatic failure. Manual "manual override" mode selection which will stop all automatic movement until the operator finished the part. Using a joystick and/or his fingers.

He has been modded down to -1...

[GPS Pilot]

Slashdot's moderation system is working very well. He hasn't been censored, but he has been modded down into oblivion.

The best of both worlds. We should not ask for anything more.

Hubris

[Elfich47]

Musk decided to ignore the comments and advice of experienced automotive engineers and industrial designers. There are easily twenty other car manufacturers out there that learned the lessons that Tesla is relearning now. The lessons that Tesla is learning now are the ones all the other car makers have as their daily mantra:

1. Have an assembly line with the lowest downtime and most consistent production rate available.
2. Research improvements to the line. Develop a replacement station/process for particular portions of the assembly. Test and debug the new process so it is as reliable and as fast as the previous process. Once the new process is refined and complete - Then change the assembly line.
3. Retrain the workers once in the new process. Go forward in the new manufacturing process.
4. Understand the "Pull method" of manufacturing. Toyota implemented it in the 70's and 80's and forced everyone else to get on the band wagon.
Yes, this sounds boring. But the big boys out there all know that the things that kill profitability is: downtime, reliability, rework, supply chain foul ups, and warranty work. So unless the new process improves all of these things, it won't be changed.

Toyota Fan && I think Tesla Will Out-do Th

[Anonymous Coward]

Toyota went to Hybrid cars after finding out that many customers wanted greater fuel efficiency. They were the "leaders in following their customers". Tesla is "leading their customers" by getting people excited about their cars. They could have gone electric with less effort - they didn't need to make it the safest car on the planet and with really gorgeous industrial design and auto-pilot (which I'm really scared about but excites naive customers). They are showing what is possible and creating a market. Toyota could kill them (reduce Tesla's cash flow so that Tesla can't stay afloat) by just releasing a plug in electric Lexus with the same range... but haven't. To have that car ready today, they needed to start designing it 5 years ago. But they're just focused on regulatory compliance:
https://insideevs.com/lexus-says-no-to-plug-in-hybrids/
So I believe he could very well out-Toyota Toyota.

Listen to the stock market...

[Anonymous Coward]

... it's saying that Ford would make a good entry-level division of Tesla.

Will production lines become (largely) obsolete?

[aberglas]

As robots become smarter and more versatile, will we start so see shorter, slower production lines in which machines do more things at each step?

Having multiple shorter lines would make logistics much easier. Failures would be localized. And production could be distributed nearer to markets.

The idea of a machine (the production line) pushing out something as complex as a car every couple of minutes boggles the mind. The number of things that could go wrong is huge. It is not surprising that it sometimes stops. It is amazing that it ever goes.

Re:Will production lines become (largely) obsolete

[Anonymous Coward]

That doesn't seem feasible. Let's say you have 100 different robot stations on your line, each performing a different task. If you change them so that each robot performs all the tasks, each of the 100 robots needs to have all 100 different tools and a supply of all 100 different parts.

There's no way that's more efficient than having specialized robots and individual part supplies!

dom

Automotive Production Systems

[Anonymous Coward]

The really good production systems, like TPS (Toyota Production System), are created by making mostly small improvements, and meticulously measuring the resulting effect on production, over relatively long periods of time. It's a never-ending search for additional improvement potential. The process is highly iterative, and involves the whole of production, including stuff like inventory and supply chain management. Automation is a small part of it. Re-inventing these processes probably won't buy you much, except poor quality, delays, and problems. The reason most companies fail, is because they don't have systems like this in place, or they don't implement the systems correctly.