The US is Facing a Serious Shortage of Airline Pilots (cnn.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes -- and highly skilled pilots to operate them. However, the United States has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in America in 1987. Over the past three decades, that number has decreased by 30%. Meanwhile, during this period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.

This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.

In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.

Comments

Starting pay [Re:Here's a thought:]

[XXongo]

Here's a thought: they could try paying pilots decently, and giving them reasonable work schedules.

I know, that's crazy talk.

The starting wage for a pilot at a major carrier is $70-80 an hour with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.

So, why does the first hit on my google search for "starting pay for airline pilots" say "Starting Salaries. A regional airline pilots in the U.S. typically starts out making an hourly rate of $20 – $50 per hour, or about $20,000-$40,000 per year, depending on the airline, type of aircraft, and the pilot's experience level."

with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.

...and, as the very same page on my google search helpfully tells me, "The average airline pilot logs 75 hours a month in the air and sometimes up to 150 hours per month performing ground duties like simulator training, maintaining records, performing pre-flight inspections, flight planning and traveling to and from hotels and airports."

...

Re:Here's a thought:

[bkmoore]

That is for 80 hours a month. Our normal work jobs in the us have us ordinary folks working 160 hours a month....

I'm a regional airline pilot and work well over 160 hours a month for between 80 -100 hours of flight pay. I have worked many 14+ hour days where I only get 4.5 - 5 hours of pay. The rest of the time is aircraft swaps, delays, maintenance, weather, time between legs (airport appreciation), ready reserve, etc.

The only reason people work for low pay at a regional is the carrot of being able to move on to a legacy airline such as Delta, United, America, etc and being able to earn a middle-class living. But there's no clear path to a legacy carrier. Some promise flow through, but that seems to be the exception rather than the rule. You apply and hope to get invited for an interview and maybe a job. When the economy goes down the tubes, a lot of legacy pilots wind up back at the regionals and take a 70% pay cut to just keep flying. I'm considering going to Asia as a plan B.

Re:Here's a thought:

[prisoner-of-enigma]

If there really is a pilot shortage then ticket prices are going to rise anyway because there will be a limited number of flights that can be operated by all airlines combined.

True but what will really happen is airlines will shut down flying unprofitable or marginally profitable routes in order to concentrate on the profitable ones. There will be fewer planes (but they'll always be full instead of partially filled) needing fewer pilots. I'm not saying this is good for the average customer. I'm saying this is what will happen. I used to work at at airline so I know how they operate. They know exactly how profitable each flight is. Triage will mandate they cull money-losing routes first since they only exist to feed people to more profitable routes. Next will be the marginal routes for exactly the same reason.