The US is Facing a Serious Shortage of Airline Pilots (cnn.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes -- and highly skilled pilots to operate them. However, the United States has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in America in 1987. Over the past three decades, that number has decreased by 30%. Meanwhile, during this period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.

This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.

In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.

Comments

Here's a thought:

[XXongo]

Here's a thought: they could try paying pilots decently, and giving them reasonable work schedules.

I know, that's crazy talk.

Re:Here's a thought:

[Nidi62]

Here's a thought: they could try paying pilots decently, and giving them reasonable work schedules.

I know, that's crazy talk.

The starting wage for a pilot at a major carrier is $70-80 an hour with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month. Pilots with seniority can easily makes $250k in a year before bonuses or profit sharing. Regionals currently pay about $50-60k yearly plus sign-up and retention bonuses. The issue isn't the pay or the work rules. The issue is requiring 1000-1500 hours of flight time before you can get an ATP certification which is a requirement to work for a commercial passenger airline. Before the changes after the Colgan Air crash you only needed 250 hours to be an FO with a regional carrier.

Re:Here's a thought:

[brxndxn]

$50-60k/year is garbage for a skilled technical field that requires travel 100% of the time. Pay the pilots more and the shortage will go away. Also, the airlines should start paying for training programs if they really want pilots - just like other industries need to train operators for manufacturing plants, IT staff, or maintenance workers.

Re:Here's a thought:

[Nidi62]

Also people who have flown their tours in the military likely have families at that point or want to become astronauts, politicians, or all of them.

Most military pilots have enough flight time to go right to a major airline, skipping the regionals. Worst case they are in their late 30s-early 40s, are making 6 figures within 3-4 years, and have a guaranteed 25-year career. Part of the issue is the pool of military pilots is shrinking as well with the adoption of more multi-purpose aircraft and UAVs.

Re:Here's a thought:

[michelcolman]

Those 80 hours a month are flight time. That doesn’t take into account the time preparing the flight, the time on the ground between flights, and the time finishing up after the last flight. That brings you pretty close to the amount of time “ordinary folks” work, and then that doesn’t even take the crazy schedules into account. Early shifts, late shifts, weekends equivalent to weekdays,...

Re:Here's a thought:

[Faldgan]

While your statements are factually correct they ignore several critical pieces of information that leaves readers with the wrong impression.
    The $70-$80 is for flight hours, not hours worked.
    You will spend as much time commuting and on preflight and postflight tasks as you will flying.
    You will be on standby for a lot of the non-working time as well, where you can do little else.
    Starting at a major carrier is a mid-career job, not a start of career job. You won't get this job until you have been in the industry for 10 to 15 years.

Another semi-random note: The pilot experience requirements would not have changed the Colgan crash. The captain had 3379 hours and the first officer had 2244 hours; both were well above the proposed new minimums. I use as a basic standard for good legislation that if a new law is created in response to an incident, the incident must have been prevented if the new law had already been in effect.

Re:Here's a thought:

[bkmoore]

That is for 80 hours a month. Our normal work jobs in the us have us ordinary folks working 160 hours a month....

I'm a regional airline pilot and work well over 160 hours a month for between 80 -100 hours of flight pay. I have worked many 14+ hour days where I only get 4.5 - 5 hours of pay. The rest of the time is aircraft swaps, delays, maintenance, weather, time between legs (airport appreciation), ready reserve, etc.

The only reason people work for low pay at a regional is the carrot of being able to move on to a legacy airline such as Delta, United, America, etc and being able to earn a middle-class living. But there's no clear path to a legacy carrier. Some promise flow through, but that seems to be the exception rather than the rule. You apply and hope to get invited for an interview and maybe a job. When the economy goes down the tubes, a lot of legacy pilots wind up back at the regionals and take a 70% pay cut to just keep flying. I'm considering going to Asia as a plan B.

Re:Here's a thought:

[prisoner-of-enigma]

If there really is a pilot shortage then ticket prices are going to rise anyway because there will be a limited number of flights that can be operated by all airlines combined.

True but what will really happen is airlines will shut down flying unprofitable or marginally profitable routes in order to concentrate on the profitable ones. There will be fewer planes (but they'll always be full instead of partially filled) needing fewer pilots. I'm not saying this is good for the average customer. I'm saying this is what will happen. I used to work at at airline so I know how they operate. They know exactly how profitable each flight is. Triage will mandate they cull money-losing routes first since they only exist to feed people to more profitable routes. Next will be the marginal routes for exactly the same reason.

Starting pay [Re:Here's a thought:]

[XXongo]

Here's a thought: they could try paying pilots decently, and giving them reasonable work schedules.

I know, that's crazy talk.

The starting wage for a pilot at a major carrier is $70-80 an hour with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.

So, why does the first hit on my google search for "starting pay for airline pilots" say "Starting Salaries. A regional airline pilots in the U.S. typically starts out making an hourly rate of $20 – $50 per hour, or about $20,000-$40,000 per year, depending on the airline, type of aircraft, and the pilot's experience level."

with the ability to have a contractually guaranteed minimum of 70-80 hours a month.

...and, as the very same page on my google search helpfully tells me, "The average airline pilot logs 75 hours a month in the air and sometimes up to 150 hours per month performing ground duties like simulator training, maintaining records, performing pre-flight inspections, flight planning and traveling to and from hotels and airports."

...

Not a secure future.

[BitterOak]

Given that the technology exists today to build passenger planes which require no flight crew at all, I can imagine why someone in their late teens/early twenties deciding on a career path would be hesitant to make the HUGE investment of time and money it requires to become a commercial airline pilot. My guess is within ten years, you will start to see automated commercial flights in which the "pilot" doesn't need to touch anything from pushback at the departing gate to pulling up at the arrival gate, and within twenty, you'll start to see flights with no flight crew on board at all. Why would anyone want to start a career in that field now? I think the pilot shortage problem is only going to get worse in the years to come, before automation takes over, and the shortage may accelerate the trend to automation.

an artificial shortage

[DanDD]

I just visited with a former US Navy pilot who's been flying for Frontier for the last 20 years. He hates it. Even in some major airlines, pilots are often treated poorly, have poor schedules, and are expected to have no life. This leads to a high rate of "AIDS" - Aviation Induced Divorce Syndrome. Pay has been increasing, but quality of life isn't.

If you work for an airline, regional or major, you have to establish 'seniority' before you can gain any sense of a normal schedule or choose a base of operations. Until you've establish seniority, a pilot is at the whim of the company. If you change companies, you give up seniority and start at the bottom all over again.

Federally Regulated Indentured Servitude. What a rewarding career choice. Not.

The real issues are the MBA mentality, and innovation and competition limiting FAA regulations. The airline industry and the FAA have been in bed together for decades to create regulations that go far beyond safety, and in reality limit competition and innovation. Profit and protecting the status quo comes first, everything else comes second. As a result, the US has seen a real decline in the pace of innovation in aviation. Other markets have seen dramatic increases in innovation, service, and safety. Aviation, not so much (except in safety). Yes, we have more efficient engines, better avionics, and more advanced materials (787 Dreamliner, etc.), but these innovations are in increasingly niche markets.

General aviation special interest groups like EAA and AOPA are starting to chip away at the FAA/Airline industry monster: Basic Med is helping hobbyist pilots keep their medicals and continue flying smaller aircraft safely. And, the recent FAA Part 23 regulation re-write is helping revive general aviation engineering and production in the United States. These are drops in the bucket, but hopefully this trend continues.