Slashdot Mirror
The US is Facing a Serious Shortage of Airline Pilots (cnn.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes -- and highly skilled pilots to operate them. However, the United States has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in America in 1987. Over the past three decades, that number has decreased by 30%. Meanwhile, during this period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
I know, that's crazy talk.
The situation has gotten absolutely miserable for student pilots, worse than trying to become a doctor in many ways (and that's saying something). And taking that risk (debt) buys you entrance to starving as a regional pilot for many years, until MAYBE you get hired on for a wage that can finally provide a life.
And then you're still just a bus driver in the sky. Passengers certainly treat it as such, in no small part due to the airlines treating the passengers like cattle. Honestly, I think the whole US air industry is just fucked.
Get rid of the idiotic 1500 hour rule, keep the rules as far as crew rest hours. Both of the pilots in the 2008 crash that precipitated the 1500 hour rule had more than 1500 hours in the cockpit. Most of the world does fine with co-pilots starting with 250 to 500 hours -- this allows them to be trained on the job.
The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry.
No, it doesn't. That's absurd. The military flies its own shit.
The economy does, sure. But that's a self-correcting problem (as long as you actually let it self-correct).
If there's a shortage of pilots, then raise fares to either lower demand or hire more pilots to fill demand.
Nah.
Better to make the pilots we have work more hours for the same pay.
No possible downside to that.
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
A pilot's license doesn't make someone an active commercial pilot. I work with a bunch of guys in their 60's who in their youth were hobbyist pilots that would just go and fly for fun out of local airfields. ALL of these airfields are now gone, and the cost to take up a small plane just isn't feasible for a hobbyist anymore.
Pay the pilots more and they will find they don't need pilots because nobody is flying on their airline as the tickets cost more.
What fraction of the price of an airline ticket is the price of paying the pilot? Quick back of the envelope calculation: somewhere around 1%. I'm guessing that a 1% change in ticket prices won't make much of a difference.
why train when they can get an 100K student loan to cover it.
100K isn't going to get you enough flight time to fly charters and is only a drop in the bucket towards the 1500 minimum hours to be an ATP. Especially when a small twin engine is going to run you $150+/hour and a flight instructor another $80. It's going to take YEARS to accrue enough flight time and at least $300K in flying expenses.
By my rough calculations you will blow a quarter of a million dollars in flight time and at least 5 years of living time before you can manage to land a charter pilot gig at about 800 hours. Then, it will take you another 5 years of being a busy charter pilot to get you near 1,500 hours, but you will be destitute trying to service your debt on that salary. Once you get to 1,500, you have the option of taking a ATP job with a feeder airline, flying awful routes in shoddy old aircraft for another 5-10 years before you can land a job at one of the majors, with 15 years experience and about 3,000 hours of time.
The pilot gig is not a comfortable one. You got to really love what you do to live like a pauper working the night shift away from home until you are 35 or older.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
> h1b pilots
Other countries don't have shortages because they get paid a lot more. Why the hell would anyone want to get a visa to be a pilot here?