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The US is Facing a Serious Shortage of Airline Pilots (cnn.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: The national security of the United States relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes -- and highly skilled pilots to operate them. However, the United States has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in America in 1987. Over the past three decades, that number has decreased by 30%. Meanwhile, during this period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the US airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse. I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
In the 1970s, when most of today's airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached $300,000 in today's dollars for some international pilots. What's more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline. Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
^^^^ This, or so I heard. A friend of mine finally "made it to (national/international airline)" after umpteen years and it was the difference between his wife being the breadwinner and his wife staying at home with the kids.
Also people who have flown their tours in the military likely have families at that point or want to become astronauts, politicians, or all of them.
Most military pilots have enough flight time to go right to a major airline, skipping the regionals. Worst case they are in their late 30s-early 40s, are making 6 figures within 3-4 years, and have a guaranteed 25-year career. Part of the issue is the pool of military pilots is shrinking as well with the adoption of more multi-purpose aircraft and UAVs.
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
Whenever there's an article about a shortage of X, it's usually because the pay/conditions of X are terrible, nobody wants to do it FOR THAT WAGE, and thus there's a shortage. But the hope is that somehow this shortage will etiher drum up business for schools/certification, remove regulations that prevent unqualified people from doing the work, or otherwise prevent having to take the revenue that is lost to profit and use it for employees. Really hard to give a flying fuck.
I just visited with a former US Navy pilot who's been flying for Frontier for the last 20 years. He hates it. Even in some major airlines, pilots are often treated poorly, have poor schedules, and are expected to have no life. This leads to a high rate of "AIDS" - Aviation Induced Divorce Syndrome. Pay has been increasing, but quality of life isn't.
If you work for an airline, regional or major, you have to establish 'seniority' before you can gain any sense of a normal schedule or choose a base of operations. Until you've establish seniority, a pilot is at the whim of the company. If you change companies, you give up seniority and start at the bottom all over again.
Federally Regulated Indentured Servitude. What a rewarding career choice. Not.
The real issues are the MBA mentality, and innovation and competition limiting FAA regulations. The airline industry and the FAA have been in bed together for decades to create regulations that go far beyond safety, and in reality limit competition and innovation. Profit and protecting the status quo comes first, everything else comes second. As a result, the US has seen a real decline in the pace of innovation in aviation. Other markets have seen dramatic increases in innovation, service, and safety. Aviation, not so much (except in safety). Yes, we have more efficient engines, better avionics, and more advanced materials (787 Dreamliner, etc.), but these innovations are in increasingly niche markets.
General aviation special interest groups like EAA and AOPA are starting to chip away at the FAA/Airline industry monster: Basic Med is helping hobbyist pilots keep their medicals and continue flying smaller aircraft safely. And, the recent FAA Part 23 regulation re-write is helping revive general aviation engineering and production in the United States. These are drops in the bucket, but hopefully this trend continues.
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." - H. G. Wells
There is no such thing as a shortage, or a surplus. Those two things only exist within a price point, at a specific point in time. With enough money, you could buy ALL the pilots. I am pretty sure the very last pilot would be very expensive. Then, after a few more years, there would be even more pilots, and then they'd be even more expensive. Eventually this would stabilize, as even if there were one extremely rich person with all the money, not everyone could be a pilot. Some people would have to grow food, and work on airplanes.
This article seems to miss an important point - regional airlines choose not to pay as much for pilots, so they will feel a 'shortage' at or below their preferred price point, for a specific time period.
While your statements are factually correct they ignore several critical pieces of information that leaves readers with the wrong impression.
The $70-$80 is for flight hours, not hours worked.
You will spend as much time commuting and on preflight and postflight tasks as you will flying.
You will be on standby for a lot of the non-working time as well, where you can do little else.
Starting at a major carrier is a mid-career job, not a start of career job. You won't get this job until you have been in the industry for 10 to 15 years.
Another semi-random note: The pilot experience requirements would not have changed the Colgan crash. The captain had 3379 hours and the first officer had 2244 hours; both were well above the proposed new minimums. I use as a basic standard for good legislation that if a new law is created in response to an incident, the incident must have been prevented if the new law had already been in effect.
Nathan Brazil?
If you Don't pay the pilots more, then the pilots will move to another airline that does. You won't have any passengers because you don't have pilots to fly them. Your competitor with higher ticket prices will actually be offering flight routes that you don't and so your customers will go to your competitor.
So is it better to pay pilots and raise ticket prices?
If there really is a pilot shortage then ticket prices are going to rise anyway because there will be a limited number of flights that can be operated by all airlines combined.
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
The issue is requiring 1000-1500 hours of flight time before you can get an ATP certification which is a requirement to work for a commercial passenger airline. Before the changes after the Colgan Air crash you only needed 250 hours to be an FO with a regional carrier.
Today, many "fresh" pilots (those with a CPL and 250 hours) need to get a CFI and train other pilots in order to get the required experience. That's nothing else than a ponzi scheme. Once they have 1500 hours, they are eligible to fly at the airlines, but by that time they're "too old" and "too demanding".
Not to mention that a few years ago it was still very common to have young pilots pay to fly. The industry created the problem itself.
I'm not a complete idiot... Some parts are missing.
Actually, H1Bs are supported by Republicans more than Dems. Dems favor equal protection under the Law, which the indentures servitude nature of the H1b disallows.
It's not about racism, it's about undercutting the domestic wages of largely technical and non-doctor medical (nurse assistant) personnel.
The Republican party has most of the pro racism people, so I understand why you would try to label it as such though.
In the end, you will post want you want regardless of truth. As you often say "I'm not gay, but a 100 rubles is a 100 rubles."
Charters are going to take pilots that have turbine time and are type rated. FEW charter companies will touch you under 3,000 hours, and none will foot the bill for type ratings or check rides until you actually are their employee. That's on you. You *might* get some time flying specialized cargo or short passenger runs, but that's not going to be a regular paying job. Being a CFI would be much better for that, but that means you have to find a bunch of students with money, and all those PIC hours will mostly be single engine non-complex.
Flying piston aircraft for charters or cargo is a low probability because there simply isn't enough of that kind of thing going on here in the states. Nobody flies piston aircraft for cargo or charter, not anymore. Turbine gigs for cargo are even more limited. Why? FedX requires an ATP rating, UPS is similar and they fly nearly ALL the freight out there now.
Flying banners is an option, but there are not that many hours available for that as there are few places where this happens much. Where I live, they fly banners about 2 months out of the year because of the weather. Competition for these hours is going to be fierce because there are a LOT of guys with 500 hours dying to get PIC hours for free.
All in all, it's *really* hard to get enough PIC time without significant amounts of debt.
Personally, I think Airlines would be advised to supplement such business activities to get pilots enough hours to get their ratings, say supplement cargo businesses for low volume and unusual routes. Maybe they could supplement flight training schools or individual students and build a feeder program designed to get pilots hours built up at less cost to the students. Maybe provide promising pilots other working positions with suitable hours and access to low cost flight schools to allow them to quickly build hours and move into meaningful flying work sooner and faster.
"File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101