Tesla Model 3 Outselling Small, Midsize Luxury Cars In US (forbes.com)

WindBourne shares a report from Forbes: In the second quarter of 2018, Tesla produced just over 53,000 vehicles, doubling its output compared to the same quarter last year. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761) with deliveries to customers totaling 40,740 for the quarter. The ramp up in Model 3 production is enabling it to outsell small and midsize luxury car sales in the U.S., according to some number crunching by CleanTechnica's Zachary Shahan.

His analysis claims that the Model 3 is crushing its "competitors" in that segment with total estimated sales for July amounting to 16,000 vehicles. The closest individual model to Tesla's mass-market endeavor is the Mercedes C-Class and even then, its July sales are estimated at just 6,029 units. The Model 3 is still untouchable when sales figures from multiple vehicles produced by the same company are added together. For example, the analysis expects sales of the BMW 2, 3, 4 and 5 Series to hit 12,811 at the end of July in total while customers will get their hands on 11,835 Mercedes C, CLA, CLS and E-Class models. That all means that Tesla would have a 23% share of the small and midsize luxury car market in July, ahead of BMW's 17% and Mercedes' 17%.

Comments

Of course...

[taiwanjohn]

All this depends on Tesla being able to get the damn things produced and delivered to customers. The Model 3 production ramp up has been much slower than Elon predicted, but it is steadily improving, even as TSLA stock takes a beating (mostly due to Elon's regrettable antics on social media). Ironically, Elon's bold claims are probably more to blame than Tesla's actual performance. In any other context, a 100% increase in production in one year would be seen as quite strong, but because they keep failing to meet Elon's projections, they keep getting criticized by analysts.

Ultimately, I think they will get over this hump, but "production hell" is going to continue for a good while yet. Ramping up to high-volume production of automobiles is a unique challenge for Elon, and building a production line in tents has an unpleasant aroma of desperation.

not selling - delivering!

[kiviQr]

It is not outselling they are fulfilling long standing orders. Not the same.

Tesla and the competition

[Zobeid]

I've seen this theory going around, that other car makers--the big boys, established companies that have been in business for decades--are just waiting until Tesla has done all the expensive R&D for them and primed the market, then they're all going to pile in with their own electric cars and crush poor, naive Tesla.

Good luck with that. So far I haven't seen any indication that any established car makers have the ability to mass-produce a desirable (in particular, long-range) electric car and sell it at a profit, and I haven't seen any indication that any of them are ramping up for an attempt to do so. A recent poll of auto executives found a solid majority of them still expect battery-electric cars to fail in the marketplace, and quite a few of them still think hydrogen fuel cells are the future. Are these the guys who are going to green-light EV production on a massive scale?

The latest "Tesla killer" to get a lot of buzz was the Jaguar I-Pace. They flew a bunch of reporters out to Portugal to show it off, and the machine seems to have impressed many of them. But how many do Jaguar plan to make? How many are they even able to make? The latest numbers I've seen suggest that Tesla are now out-producing Jaguar. I don't mean they're making more electric cars than Jaguar; I mean they're making more cars that Jaguar's total automotive output.

Re:Trucks?

[swillden]

So the air went from being smelly to causing cancer?

From being a vector of immediate disease affecting all ages to being a vector of delayed disease affecting primarily the elderly, yes.

http://www.banhdc.org/archives/ch-hist-19711000.html

Re:Regular orders or filling back orders?

[Rei]

We have been over all this. Bjorn did 510km in a Kona with normal driving, not hypermiling or anything

Oh come on. He did 510km in a Kona on eco tires and aero wheels with no passenger at an average speed of under 90kph / 56mph. And you know that.

He was seeing over 350km range at 125km/h

1) His long-range run was at 120kph, not 125. With an average slightly under that.
2) Going 68% as far at 120kph as at 90kph is a big dropoff, and a testament to the lack of good aerodynamics on the Kona.

so exceeding the speed limit constantly

120kph (75mph) - while far faster than my speed limit - is not by any stretch an unusual highway speed in much of the world. Many places drive faster. 90kph / 56mph, by contrast, is on the very low end of highway speeds, by global standards. I live in AFAIK the only developed country that doesn't have any roads with speed limits faster than that.

And you are trying to compare with the M3 LR, a car that costs $20,000 more for a similar spec.

No. Please, at least get your pricing right. Model 3 LR starts at $44k USD. You're adding PUP and who knows what else in. The "long range" Kona starts at £34,500 in the UK (no US pricing yet). So subtracting 20% VAT and converting to USD, that's $37830. Pricewise, that's slotting in 31% of the way between SR and LR. Range-wise, that's 33% of the way between SR and the nominal LR range of 310 miles, or 26% of the way between SR and the measured LR range of 334 miles.

I know you want to try to load up the Model 3 with packages to try to make it more expensive, under the excuse of "anything that Kona has, we'll tack on a Model 3 package for that", but sorry, that's not even remotely a fair comparison, since you're not doing the reverse. Kona doesn't even have a freaking app for crying out loud, let alone literally dozens of standard Model 3 features. I know your favourite package to do this with is Autopilot, but the portions of that which really matter (safety-related) come free.

You don't get to load up one with options to try to artificially boost the price; that's just ridiculous.

Bjorn also noted how well the autopilot works

Who should I listen to, some not-that-enthusiastic commentary, or my lying eyes? Here, let's quote from the comments section of that video:

"That's... actually rather terrifying." - My comment. One of the most liked comments in the thread
"So the car will turn off the assist and rely on lesser technologies when you need it the most? Incredibly bad design." - THE most liked comment in the thread
"we called it DDM = drunk driver mode not LFA :)"
"This is dangerous :O They need to fix this in case people have a medical situation."
"Thats not good. it need to drop the speed"
"Scary drunk system"
"That’s disappointing "
"WTF I was expecting lexus lfa =("

You seem to be the only person who thinks this is acceptable. This is going to kill people. And I don't mean "one every several hundred million miles, at a rate less than a human driver". I mean frequently. You leave your hands off the wheel for too long and the car decides to drive like you're on heroin? Who the heck thought this up?

His only criticism is that it doesn't slow down if you release your hands from the wheel, so pretty much the same as Tesla used to be until the latest software update that owners are moaning about.

1) This is not true. Autopilot has always braked to a stop and put the flashers on if you cease responding to driver input

2) The only thing people were "moaning" about was the frequency of the alerts. In the latest update, they decreased them (but not to as far apart as they were previously) and made the

Re:Regular orders or filling back orders?

[AmiMoJo]

He drive 510km at normal highway speed in Norway in the tyres/wheels that the car comes with. What do you want Rei, what specific set-up do you require for the Rei Certified Efficient Driving Range Test?

His long-range run was at 120kph, not 125

Look at the speedometer. Anyway, who cares? He was doing the speed limit or slightly above. Most of Europe has the same limit. He got 220 miles, which is the same as the similarly priced Model 3 SR gets with efficient driving. The point is undeniable, even if you do want to quibble over 5 kph.

And your beloved Model 3 also tanks efficiency at higher speeds. That's how drag works. And the Kona is still showing better efficiency at 120 kph in Bjorn's test.

Many places drive faster.

Here's a comprehensive list: https://www.theaa.ie/aa/motori...

Most are 120, and handful 130.

Model 3 LR starts at $44k USD. You're adding PUP and who knows what else in.

I'm adding autopilot, because the Kona has something similar. You get fewer luxuries in the M3 at that price, but it's broadly similar.

Here, let's quote from the comments section of that video:

Really, you are quoting the YouTube comments section now? And you take that over what Bjorn, an exert on EVs who has driven them all and extensively tested multiple steering assist systems, says?

Anyway, I'm not convinced that coming to a stop in the middle of a 120km/h highway is such a good idea either. Especially since Autopilot tends to just ram straight into stationary vehicles without bothering to slow down. That sounds even more suicidal.

If lane keeping alone was that dangerous then we would already see all these frequent fatalities as people with cruise control and lane keeping take their hands off the wheel and get little more than a beep or a nudge in the many millions of vehicles that already have it.