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As Value of Cryptocurrencies Falls, a Lot of New and Risk-Taking Investors Are Suffering Immensely (nytimes.com)

After the latest round of big price drops, many cryptocurrencies have given back all of the enormous gains they experienced last winter. The value of all outstanding digital tokens has fallen by about $600 billion, or 75 percent, since the peak in January, according to data from the website coinmarketcap.com. The New York Times: The virtual currency markets have been through booms and busts before -- and recovered to boom again. But this bust could have a more lasting impact on the technology's adoption because of the sheer number of ordinary people who invested in digital tokens over the last year, and who are likely to associate cryptocurrencies with financial ruin for a very long time. [...] By many metrics, more people put money into virtual currencies last fall and winter than in all of the preceding nine or so years. Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency brokerage in the United States, doubled its number of customers between October and March. The start-up Square began allowing the users of its mobile app, Square Cash, to buy Bitcoin last November.

[...] Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000, into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent. "I thought that cryptocurrencies would be the one and only breakthrough for ordinary hardworking people like us," she said. "I thought my family and I could escape hardship and live more comfortably, but it turned out to be the other way around."

[...] In the United States, Charles Herman, a 29-year-old small-business owner in Charleston, S.C., became obsessed with virtual currencies in September. He said he now felt that he had wasted 10 months of his life trying to play the markets. While he is essentially back to the $4,000 he put in, he has soured on the revolutionary promises that virtual currency fanatics made for the technology last year and has resumed investing his money in real estate. "I guess I thought we were 'sticking it to the man' when I got on board," Mr. Herman said. "But I think 'the man' had already caught on, and had an exit strategy."

11 of 559 comments (clear)

  1. Stupidity is supposed to be painful by asackett · · Score: 5, Informative

    I kinda hate jumping onto the bandwagon, but investing in anything on the basis of "someone dumber than me will buy it for more than I paid" always leads to the greatest number of people learning the hard way that they're the dumber someones.

    Tuition can be wickedly expensive in the school of hard knocks.

    --

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    1. Re: Stupidity is supposed to be painful by swillden · · Score: 4, Informative

      but investing in anything on the basis of "someone dumber than me will buy it for more than I paid" always leads to the greatest number of people learning the hard way that they're the dumber someones.

      You are aware that is how the stockmarkets work, right?

      No, it is not.

      When you invest in stocks, you're buying a share of a (hopefully) productive company which is making and selling stuff, contributing to the economy and thereby generating profits for you. Some of those companies distribute your share of those profits in the form of dividends, others plow the profits into growth or stock repurchase plans, increasing the value of the shares you hold. Either way, you're buying a chunk of an enterprise you expect to be productive and therefore give you a positive return.

      Sure, stock markets have ups and downs, sometimes running values above their realistic levels, and then correcting back downward, but over time and over a broad enough portfolio of stocks, you can absolutely expect positive returns on your investment. Not because you can sell to people dumber than you, but because you're buying pieces of real, productive enterprises that generate real value.

      Cryptocurrencies are not the same. To the extent that cryptocurrencies are currencies, they're like "investing" in any other currency -- speculating on the relative strengths of different segments of the overall economy, which are wildly unpredictable and provide no engine of long-term predictable gains like that of healthy companies. Trading in "real" currencies takes two forms: arbitrage which attempts to profit from short-term changes and serves to provide liquidity for currency exchanges while smoothing out spurious differences, and hedging, which helps to limit the effects of currency swings on companies that trade in multiple currencies. No on "invests" in currencies by buying and holding (well, other than central banks, which do it for reasons other than generating profits), because there's no reason to believe that will work.

      The reason people have "invested" in cryptocurrencies is because they have not been behaving like currencies. But there's also no real growth engine behind them beyond pure speculation: buying on the basis that "someone dumber than me will buy it for more than I paid". There was one reason to expect the continual increase in cryptocurrency values: the fact that most of them (especially BTC) have a hard upper limit on the number of coins that can be created. But the problem with that "hard upper limit" is that there is no limit on the number of cryptocurrencies that can be created. Not only that, but they don't actually work well as currencies, for numerous reasons.

      --
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  2. Bitcoin has real problems. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Transaction times and transaction fees are awful and not at all competitive with credit (let alone cash), and there is no clear way to address either problem. In fact, it looks like both problems will only get worse as bitcoin becomes more popular. Until both problems are solved, bitcoin is worthless as a currency because it can't be used like other currencies can.

    1. Re: Bitcoin has real problems. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      This just is not true at all. You can send without a fee, in which case your transaction will never be processed. Therefore actually, you can't. Here in NZ, I can transfer between banks essentially instantly and it costs nothing. I'm not sure how Bitcoin is cheaper or faster.

  3. I have seen too many of those patterns by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    in the last 47 years of my life. It always comes down to this. once the mass media hype starts and ordinary people are dragged into the next financial get rich quick scheme in the masses, it is better to get out if you are into something.
    The pattern is usually that you get lots of press reports, that you should invest, that this thing is a totally new economy which works differently, that you are stupid if you do not invest. Once those reports crawl up, you can expect a crash between the next three months and a year.
    I have seen this with the dot bomb bust, with the housing bubble etc... and the patterns 1929 were exactly the same, when Kennedy went out of the stock market 1928 because he got stock advices from people working on the street.
    Also the bomb cycle always is the same, it starts to go down, the financial press and others are screaming hold... then it recovers slightly everyone is yelling it just was a hickup and then it goes down again everyone screams you have to hold and then over and over again with a few upwards pumps along the road. The people screaming hold, usually are the ones connected to the big investors selling big time to get out while everyone thinks they can recover.

  4. Re:The headline is missing three words by Cyberax · · Score: 5, Informative

    Are you sure?

    Yup. The US Federal Reserve System is a stand-alone government entity, like the National Park Service or the IRS. What trips some people is the fact that the Fed uses multiple private banks to perform its duties instead of a single government bank like in most of other countries. This is no different from Pentagon using Boeing or Lockheed to build its planes.

  5. Re:The headline is missing three words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    "Some observers mistakenly consider the Federal Reserve to be a private entity because the Reserve Banks are organized similarly to private corporations."

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm

    That took literally less than 30 seconds to check.

  6. Re:The headline is missing three words by Registered+Coward+v2 · · Score: 4, Informative

    There's a definite limit to how much gold is on Earth, and it's surprisingly small:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/magaz...

    The key is "mineable" gold. There may be only 175 thousand tons that are extractable from land, but there is an estimated 20 million tons in seawater; it's the cost to extract it that makes it uneconomical. If a way could be found to extract it cheaply, gold would follow the same path as aluminum.

    --
    I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.
  7. Re:The headline is missing three words by MrKaos · · Score: 3, Informative

    Are you sure?

    Yup. The US Federal Reserve System is a stand-alone government entity, like the National Park Service or the IRS.

    I can see where you're confused. I checked the Federal Reserve Act. The Government part is the Board of Governors, the rest is corporate. Otherwise you wouldn't have a "Chairman of the Board". Nor would you have Section under the Federal Reserve Act for appointing a board. I was only trying to point out it was privately owned, which it clearly is, not that it was privately controlled - which it looks like it is according to the act.

    What trips some people is the fact that the Fed uses multiple private banks to perform its duties instead of a single government bank like in most of other countries.

    Well that's the privately owned part I was talking about. The thing that *really* trips me up is Section 4, Part 4 of the Federal Reserve Act

    refers to its organization as a corporation:

    4. General corporate powers

    Upon the filing of such certificate with the Comptroller of the Currency as aforesaid, the said Federal reserve bank shall become a body corporate and as such, and in the name designated in such organization certificate, shall have power--

    First. To adopt and use a corporate seal.

    Second. To have succession after the approval of this Act until dissolved by Act of Congress or until forfeiture of franchise for violation of law.

    Third. To make contracts

    Fourth. To sue and be sued, complain and defend, in any court of law or equity.

    Fifth. To appoint by its board of directors a president, vice presidents, and such officers and employees as are not otherwise provided for in this Act, to define their duties, require bonds for them and fix the penalty thereof, and to dismiss at pleasure such officers or employees.

    It goes on with directors and so on then Section 24 talks about how to qualify shareholders. If it wasn't privately owned, which is true otherwise Section 24 would not exist however I wasn't trying to claim it was a corporation, which now I've had a look at the Act, it clearly is arranged that way, a Chartered Corporation (I think).

    Btw - I already pointed out the List of federal reserve shareholders (The private owners) to Mr AC in case you were interested.

    This is no different from Pentagon using Boeing or Lockheed to build its planes.

    So the government uses the banks to set its monetary policy for the taxpayer. hmmmm, I'm not sure that's such a good idea.

    Perhaps it is time to question your assumptions?

    --
    My ism, it's full of beliefs.
  8. Re: Interestingly, taxation shifted stocks to GFT by jonesy16 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Actually, short term capital gains and unqualified dividends are taxed at ordinary income rates. Long term capital gains (stocks held longer than 1 year) and qualified dividends (stocks held for more than 60 days in a 121 day window around the dividend distribution) are taxed at preferential rates, as low as 0% depending on your income bracket but at 15% for a good portion of the population.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news...

  9. Re: It's just a get rich quick scheme by ceoyoyo · · Score: 4, Informative

    Blockchain isn't an improved version of a hash chain at all. It IS a hash chain. If you want to be generous, it adds some conventions so that a bunch of people can all agree on who gets to write the next node on the chain.

    If you set up a public git account and came up with a system to assign a one time use password to a random registered accounts that they could use to make the next commit, you'd have a blockchain.